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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 19:06:10
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Battlefortress Driver with Krusha Wheel
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Actually there is and I will tell you why.
There are two main reasons this can be an advantage. One is uneven dice. Vegas dice may be as statistically close to 16 ish prevent as dice can get, but your average garbage chessex dice are hardly machine balanced. They can skew as far as two to four prevent in a direction due to gakky construction. And all so they can round the corners. Every three rounded dice corners collected is another dice worth of plastic saved.
Another reason is the dice doesn't always properly roll when picked up and re used in rapid succession. I have done this many times, and while I have never studied how to do this I know the distinctave sound o a die flopping down flat when rolled. That's why in craps you throw a long distance and they have to bounce off a wall.
Tldr: if you want true random results one at a time use a Vegas die- and roll it in a dice tower.
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warhammer 40k mmo. If I can drive an ork trukk into the back of a space marine dread and explode in a fireball of epic, I can die happy!
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 19:08:10
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Dakka Veteran
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As plenty of other have said it does not statistically increase your chances of passing the save, but it DOES statistically increase the chances of your opponent getting pissed because you are slowing the game down.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 19:09:19
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Battlefortress Driver with Krusha Wheel
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chaos0xomega wrote:As someone who has a lot of background doing really advanced statistics - no, no there is no difference between rolling one die and rolling multiple die. There is only the ILLUSION that you have a statistically better chance of passing saves because you are at most only presented with a single success/failure at a time, as opposed to multiple.
I.E. - Glitcha, you're wrong.
For someone with a background doing advanced statistics you sure are omitting many of them that would affect random chance in this case. Automatically Appended Next Post: Loborocket wrote:As plenty of other have said it does not statistically increase your chances of passing the save, but it DOES statistically increase the chances of your opponent getting pissed because you are slowing the game down.
Untrue, the more rapidly done in succession, the less likely the dice is shaken, thus increasing the chance of landing on the same side via the flop affect by a varying prescentage.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/15 19:11:35
warhammer 40k mmo. If I can drive an ork trukk into the back of a space marine dread and explode in a fireball of epic, I can die happy!
8k points
3k points
3k points
Admech 2.5k points
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 19:11:43
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Regular Dakkanaut
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chaos0xomega wrote:As someone who has a lot of background doing really advanced statistics - no, no there is no difference between rolling one die and rolling multiple die. There is only the ILLUSION that you have a statistically better chance of passing saves because you are at most only presented with a single success/failure at a time, as opposed to multiple.
I.E. - Glitcha, you're wrong.
As an Actuary I can agree to that, the chance of each dice is 1/6 of getting a 1 (of getting any specific number) (unless the Dices are weighted, thrown in a special way or something)
Automatically Appended Next Post: Orock wrote:Automatically Appended Next Post:
Loborocket wrote:As plenty of other have said it does not statistically increase your chances of passing the save, but it DOES statistically increase the chances of your opponent getting pissed because you are slowing the game down.
Untrue, the more rapidly done in succession, the less likely the dice is shaken, thus increasing the chance of landing on the same side via the flop affect by a varying prescentage.
Not necesary Untrue, the more rapidly done, less chance to pick the dice from the same spot, in the same angle, throwing again with the same strenght, and falling in the same spot of the table.
Unless throwing it sideways, more "sliding" than "throwing" it, it won't affect that much.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/15 19:15:46
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 19:40:29
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Dakka Veteran
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Orock wrote:
Loborocket wrote:As plenty of other have said it does not statistically increase your chances of passing the save, but it DOES statistically increase the chances of your opponent getting pissed because you are slowing the game down.
Untrue, the more rapidly done in succession, the less likely the dice is shaken, thus increasing the chance of landing on the same side via the flop affect by a varying prescentage.
Of for Pete's sake, I was trying to be a little bit funny. Perhaps there is a "slight" difference but it would not make a real difference unless you throw literally thousands of dice. The difference is really small. I still stand by the statement if my opponent insisted on throwing dice one at a time when there was not a reason (different saves, LoS, etc...) there would be a 100% statistical chance it would piss me off.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 20:15:31
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Oozing Plague Marine Terminator
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I roll one at a time for FNP rolls, hoping one good run of successes can be tanked on as few models as possible. Rolling all at once, and then rolling FNP all at once always seems to take more casualties.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 20:17:44
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Shas'la with Pulse Carbine
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Everyone should just use dice cups to get a good proper shake on multiple dice.
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Down with Allies, Solo 2016! |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 20:21:58
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Auspicious Daemonic Herald
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Glitcha wrote:It actually does. Statics support it. It actually has to do with the number of variables in the event.
If it were dependent variables then yeah it would.
But dice are independent variables so nothing has an effect on the probabbilty of a die roll
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/15 20:26:56
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Regular Dakkanaut
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Nightlord1987 wrote:I roll one at a time for FNP rolls, hoping one good run of successes can be tanked on as few models as possible. Rolling all at once, and then rolling FNP all at once always seems to take more casualties.
If it's not the whole unit that have the FnP but a single model, then YOU MUST make one on one, specially if the FnP model is the first one, once it dies, and asuming the rest has the same saves, you can roll all at once. (Or if you have X models before the one with FnP , you can roll X dices at once )
CrownAxe wrote: Glitcha wrote:It actually does. Statics support it. It actually has to do with the number of variables in the event.
If it were dependent variables then yeah it would.
But dice are independent variables so nothing has an effect on the probabbilty of a die roll
Someone did it's homework.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/15 20:28:07
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/16 04:12:47
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Regular Dakkanaut
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Massaen wrote:
Useful
It used to matter with the DE shadow field - not so much anymore.
It can also matter if the rest of the unit is not 2+ saves as the tanking model might die then change the save of the unit
no they are trying to allocate wounds to a certain target.... OR cheating lol but what a dumb way to "cheat"
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/16 13:49:36
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Dakka Veteran
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Orock wrote:chaos0xomega wrote:As someone who has a lot of background doing really advanced statistics - no, no there is no difference between rolling one die and rolling multiple die. There is only the ILLUSION that you have a statistically better chance of passing saves because you are at most only presented with a single success/failure at a time, as opposed to multiple.
I.E. - Glitcha, you're wrong.
For someone with a background doing advanced statistics you sure are omitting many of them that would affect random chance in this case.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Loborocket wrote:As plenty of other have said it does not statistically increase your chances of passing the save, but it DOES statistically increase the chances of your opponent getting pissed because you are slowing the game down.
Untrue, the more rapidly done in succession, the less likely the dice is shaken, thus increasing the chance of landing on the same side via the flop affect by a varying prescentage.
So it actually does make passing more 2+'s likely once you do the first. Interesting Automatically Appended Next Post: |
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/16 13:50:20
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/16 14:03:35
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Regular Dakkanaut
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jakejackjake wrote: Orock wrote:chaos0xomega wrote:As someone who has a lot of background doing really advanced statistics - no, no there is no difference between rolling one die and rolling multiple die. There is only the ILLUSION that you have a statistically better chance of passing saves because you are at most only presented with a single success/failure at a time, as opposed to multiple.
I.E. - Glitcha, you're wrong.
For someone with a background doing advanced statistics you sure are omitting many of them that would affect random chance in this case.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Loborocket wrote:As plenty of other have said it does not statistically increase your chances of passing the save, but it DOES statistically increase the chances of your opponent getting pissed because you are slowing the game down.
Untrue, the more rapidly done in succession, the less likely the dice is shaken, thus increasing the chance of landing on the same side via the flop affect by a varying prescentage.
So it actually does make passing more 2+'s likely once you do the first. Interesting
Rolling X-1 Dices will always have a better chance of not getting a 1 than rolling X. But Since the start you used X.
You have 3 dices. the chance of getting a 1 is: (1/6*5/6*5/6)*3 + (1/6*1/6*5/6)*3 + 1/6*1/6*1/6 = 0,421296296 , but if you roll 1 is 0,16777777777
If you pass the first: rolling 2 the chance is: 0,305555556, but if you roll 1 the chance is 0,1677777777.... But since you passed the first roll
If you pass the 2nd: rolling 1 is 0,1677777777777 ... and here is when you roll the 1. Because you always had the same chance of rolling a 1,
Even if you roll all 3 dices toghether, each dice separatelly has a chance of 0,1677777777 the chance is the same, and it's only luck to get a 1 (if no cheating is done)
The law of probabilities says that as a bigger ammount of time it's tried, the more chance something will happen is it's probability. if you roll 600 dices, the most probably result is that you roll around 100 1s. And you roll again 600 and you get around 100 1s
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/16 14:18:00
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Dakka Veteran
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The point is that previous dice rolls do not matter anymore though.
So while it is an illusion at the start as you continue it becomes true. Your chances increase of not taking wounds.
Is there an over arching strategic benefit to doing it this way. Absolutely not
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/16 14:18:26
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/16 14:19:00
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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[DCM]
Moustache-twirling Princeps
Gone-to-ground in the craters of Coventry
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grendel083 wrote:Rolling 1 save at a time is the actual rules.
Rolling saves as a batch is a house rule 
I've seen a section in a recent 40k rulebook saying rolling lots of dice is official.
It is in the Saves section of the Shooting Phase rules, in the part titled Fast Dice.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/16 14:47:29
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/17 03:37:36
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Longtime Dakkanaut
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It's a recommendation for certain situations like firing bolters. It's not mandatory.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/17 07:27:45
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Pious Palatine
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evildrcheese wrote:Yeah the only time it's useful if when you have mixed saves.
It offers no statistical advantage although it it could affect people psychologically.
For instance I remember trying to kill a Necron lord from the lost dex who had a single wound left and a 2+, I put 11 wounds on him and my opponent rolled them individually, despite the lord been a single model (I think I'd already killed the rest of his squad) and he passed them all. I couldn't believe it and the Lord became a scary individual lurking in my deployment zone...
Equally, i recently tried to tank a bunch of wounds on Dante, proceeded to immediately roll a 1, not deterred, I then proceeded to roll a second consecutive 1. So it certainly doesn't increase your chances of making the save!
D
Dozer Blades wrote:Look Out Sir.
Not sure if you're responding to me or not, but if you are, then Look Out Sir come before armour saves, not after.
You allocate a wound, decide if you want to LoS (if applicable), roll save.
D
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/17 08:03:56
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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[DCM]
Moustache-twirling Princeps
Gone-to-ground in the craters of Coventry
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evildrcheese wrote:Dozer Blades wrote:Look Out Sir.
Not sure if you're responding to me or not, but if you are, then Look Out Sir come before armour saves, not after.
You allocate a wound, decide if you want to LoS (if applicable), roll save.
D
LOS comes between saves, if you get lots of them.
Roll a LOS, then the save, and move on to the next. It's possible to roll both rolls at once, if you use a special die for the LOS roll.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/17 08:53:43
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Commander of the Mysterious 2nd Legion
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One thing about gamers is when it comes to dice. we're well.. WEIRD. there are a lot of funny tradtions gamers have about their dice. you hear it most commonly with RP groups, but 40k players are the same. many have their own little dice rituals
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Opinions are not facts please don't confuse the two |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/17 09:04:38
Subject: Re:Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Chaplain with Hate to Spare
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It slows the game down a lot and has a lot more potential to game the system since you can influence how the dice rolls. Theoretically it doesn't influence the probability, but the way the dice it self in rolled can.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2015/07/17 15:04:02
Subject: Does rolling 1 save at a time statistically increase your chance of passing saves?
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Lead-Footed Trukkboy Driver
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It's called dice manipulation and it's more of a flip than a roll. It's cheating, maddening cheating, and enraging!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! People who can do it are people you don't want to play with; If you must, ask them to roll from a cup, not a box. If they refuse, DO NOT PLAY! It's a waste of your time.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/07/17 15:04:20
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