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Don't forget Vermont. And New Hampshire. And Maryland. And, and, and...

The Guardian has a pretty comprehensive survey of attitudes. Of course this stuff is mostly just fluff, but I found some of it pretty funny, especially the stereotypes bit.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/20/britons-on-europe-survey-results-opinium-poll-referendum

But it looks to be good news for the Leave crowd, having the lead pretty consistently so far in polls that I've seen. If that pattern continues, the result is pretty predictable.

 Da Boss wrote:
The Guardian has a pretty comprehensive survey of attitudes. Of course this stuff is mostly just fluff, but I found some of it pretty funny, especially the stereotypes bit.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/20/britons-on-europe-survey-results-opinium-poll-referendum

But it looks to be good news for the Leave crowd, having the lead pretty consistently so far in polls that I've seen. If that pattern continues, the result is pretty predictable.

After our 'shock' election result last time round I'm fairly cautious about poll results.

People have started to discuss this at work and out of a dozen London professionals only two are definite for staying: one has recently gained UK citizenship and seems uncomfortable with change the other is a Pole terrified by the idea of the EU being overcome by a German Rightwing hegemony and the the UK would be the only realistic hope of countering this from within. The later having grown up under the USSRs dominance has an excuse for his slightly OTT fears but doesn't get to vote.

He also made a great case for leaving, perhaps inadvertently swinging some undecideds!

So, IDS grabs his convictions and walks out in a huff over Welfare reform.

So noble and principled, showing that even the nasty party has limits.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35855616

What's that got to do with EU? A prominent proponent for Brexit standing up for his principles and sticking one in the eye for the bad tories?
Well for a start, many commentators on both sides of the poltical spectrum believe that his exit is calculated to do the maximum amount of damage to the party leadership, the government and the conservatives.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/12198625/Iain-Duncan-Smith-resigns-as-Work-and-Pensions-Secretary-live.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/12198707/The-real-reason-Iain-Duncan-Smith-resigned-and-what-it-means-for-George-Osborne-and-David-Cameron.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35854735

I think it shows how willing he is to do damage to the country in order to achieve his idealogical aims.
Many Brexit campaigners have suggested the same thing, willing to put up with financial and political discomfort in order to cede from the EU.

Admirable? Perhaps, but sensible and in the best interests of the country it might well not be.
Its the equivalent of throwing the baby out with the bath water, effectively shooting ourselves in the foot for ideological notions that are, in a global economy, almost completely pointless.

The fear that somehow we cede our identity and nationhood by remaining within the EU is a common one, and many proponents of Brexit like to point out regulation from without as being a symptom. But does any of that stop us being British, or having our own identity? Certainly there is compromise, but even outside we would have to compromise. If we believe that we would be masters of our own destiny outside the EU, you would be right, but at what cost?
In a global economy, and environment, everything we do will be influenced and controlled by agencies, and other nations outside of our control. In fact it is likely that we would have less control over own destiny outside of the EU than within seeing as we would be subject to the whims of other nations, who have no compelling reason to listen to, or consider our demands.

When the British Empire was strong, so we're we, and we had clout and influence and could dictate things to our own advantage. However those days are long gone, and the idea that we will be able to prosper and forge our own path without partners is a folorn hope likely to leave us bobbing along on the periphery, ignored by pretty much everybody.

I believe that if you want influence and a say in world affairs, for the opinions and beliefs of the British to count, and to truly protect the interests and future of the British people, then remaining within the EU and striving for reform is the best way forward.

Inside the EU, we have a say, and as a major economy, we could really challenge the German and French hegemony and drive the EU forward.
The problem is because we have only dabbled on the outside of the EU and haven't fully engaged, we have let the Continental Europeans call the shots. If we fully engage, there is every possibility that we could actually make the EU work better.

Outside of it, we will be facing a German/ French dominated financial behemoth. That's not really my cup of tea at all.

It also occurred to me that IDS's resignation has many parallels with his Brexit ideals, but also serves as an insight into what could be expected. IDS represents Britain, a member of the cabinet and policy maker. However disillusioned with his role and frustrated with his inability to get exactly what he wants, he decides to leave the cabinet. Timing his exit so as to further his agenda, he feels able to take a place on the backbenches and keep his independence. Believing that he maybe able to better serve his constituents elsewhere.
However, he is now a bankbencher, one amongst many, and his prominent cabinet position has been taken by another, who is now able to directly influence party policy in a much greater way.
He may have kept his principles, but he has sacrificed signifucant influence and control to do so. Whilst he may have been a player in the past, he has relegated himself to a position of lesser significance.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
The European Project is about empire building. Always has been. Its an economic power bloc, and sooner or later it'll be a military power bloc too.

This is our last chance to leave the European Union peacefully, before Europe is too integrated and Federalised. A Civil War broke out in America when the South tried to secede. We might be able to leave now without bloodshed, but what about after another 50 or 100 years of integration, federalisation and transfer of national sovereignty? Hell, even now, Spain is sabre rattling and threatening to take back Gibraltar (empty threats I'm sure).

Are you seriously suggesting that if at a future point we decided to leave, our only option would be war?

In the near future, no. Of course not. I'm saying you don't know what the political climate will be a century into the future. If Europe ends up as a unified federal state, a "United States of Europe", then like the USA, if states try to secede there may well be an increased risk of war than there is now. We have to consider our country's long term future, and not just our own selfish short term economical interests.

Spain is already sabre rattling over Gibraltar, and France is threatening to revoke Anglo-French treaties , and we haven't even had the Referendum yet.

There are historical precedents for conflict breaking out when states try to secede from a large federal union, and to think it couldn't possibly happen here because we're too civilized and enlightened is hubris.

 r_squared wrote:
So, IDS grabs his convictions and walks out in a huff over Welfare reform.

IDS isn't quitting over principles. If he was quitting on principle then he would've done that long ago, such as when ATOS was brought in to evaluate disabled people with no medical knowledge of the conditions they were evaluating.

IDS has resigned as a strategic move. The politician who pushes these latest cuts through will be completely vilified, as it is plainly obvious that disability is being cut to help fund tax cuts for the rich. IDS resigns before his image is further tarnished and then attacks that which he was, until now, quite happy to force onto the most vulnerable people. He's just looking out for himself.

I think it's a last straw situation. He backs cuts in principle, but he's had enough of being used as scapegoat for implementing Osborne's policies. I believe him when he criticises the unfairness of them, but there are other factors too such as not being painted a villain just before the EU vote.

In the aftermath of last year's General Election victory, I wrote on this very forum that Cameron should enjoy his honeymoon period, because the Tories will find a way to implode over the Europe issue.

I was dsmissed as a naysayer, shot down in flames!

I'll mention no names, but you know who you are!

Having lived through the John Major years, the Tory capacity to self-destruct should not be underestimated, and here we are with Ministers at each other's throats, slagging each other off in public.

It's only the fact that Labour are so useless, can the Tories get away with this civil war.

I've enjoyed watching this infighting in both parties. Its great to see Cameron squirm.

 r_squared wrote:
So, IDS grabs his convictions and walks out in a huff over Welfare reform.

My first reaction was "Oh really, IDS has grown a conscience at last?" too but my dad informed me that he may be wanting to jump ship before freedom of information requests which they have been suppressing will show that a whole bunch of vulnerable people died as a direct cause of their benefits being sanctioned by his schemes.

The figure he mentioned was 20,000 - i'm still struggling to believe the number will be quite that high, but one is too much in my book.

 SirDonlad wrote:

 r_squared wrote:
So, IDS grabs his convictions and walks out in a huff over Welfare reform.

My first reaction was "Oh really, IDS has grown a conscience at last?" too but my dad informed me that he may be wanting to jump ship before freedom of information requests which they have been suppressing will show that a whole bunch of vulnerable people died as a direct cause of their benefits being sanctioned by his schemes.

The figure he mentioned was 20,000 - i'm still struggling to believe the number will be quite that high, but one is too much in my book.

The number was 2,380, according to the the BBC.

Frankly I'm rather enjoying watching the DWP/tories go through at least a modicum of the stress they've put some of my friends under.

Though one wonders where all the "Civil war in the Labour Tory party" and "cabinet ministers conspire against Corbyn Cameron" headlines are.

Nasty party this, Tories that, Labour aren't capable of making any hay of it anyway! C'mon chaps this isn't really an issue about party politics, its much bigger than that.

IDS is a sideline and a distraction and nowt to do with the EU issue at hand. Does anyone really care whether who the Minister for Work and Pensions is from day to day.....No.

I'd consider it relevant as he is a highly prominent Brexit supporter, and his actions have caused quite the kerfuffle amongst the tories, polarising opinion and casting the pro-EU tories as members of the nasty party, probably to improve the standing and support for the "compassionate" tories of the Brexit.

It's politics, and it has already been alluded to by many people that this exit was never just about disbility benefits but the tip of the iceberg of division between IDS and the tory leadership. Subsequently he has timed it to deliver maximum benefit to the leave movement, and cause maximum disruption to the govt whilst eroding confidence.

It is only a bump in the road of the broader issues, but it is worthy of discussion.

 notprop wrote:
C'mon chaps this isn't really an issue about party politics, its much bigger than that.

No, it has nothing to do with party politics whatsoever...



Add to that the fact that the Leave campaign seems to have seen one of their most powerful members resign from his cabinet position and gone "this can only be a good thing for us" for some reason.

Add to that the fact that the Leave campaign seems to have seen one of their most powerful members resign from his cabinet position and gone "this can only be a good thing for us" for some reason.

For a long time, it's been crystal clear that the British public don't have much, or any, regard for their MPs, and don't give two hoots for their position on the EU referendum, which is why the polls show a pretty close race, so far.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Any doubts I had about voting to leave have evaporated, now that I've seen Nick Clegg declare his support for the EU.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Bad news for me: former Conservative leader Michael Howard is backing BREXIT.

I'm on the same side as Michael Howard

Nooooooooooooooooooooo!!!

*Clears throat*

 Goliath wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Any doubts I had about voting to leave have evaporated, now that I've seen Nick Clegg declare his support for the EU.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Bad news for me: former Conservative leader Michael Howard is backing BREXIT.

I'm on the same side as Michael Howard

Nooooooooooooooooooooo!!!

*Clears throat*

I was always voting to leave anyway and I don't think Michael Howard is an MP anymore, so a double to you

In general though, the British public have a pretty low opinion of their MPs - the expenses scandal is living proof of that.

That's true. It was less a comment on "hey look IDS is gone, what are you going to do now?! " and more a confusion as to why this has been seized upon by the various tabloids as something positive.

I just don't understand why the MP with possibly the most political clout on the leave side resigning is supposed to be a good thing.

Is it the political grenade he threw at Cameron/Osborne on the way out perhaps?

 Goliath wrote:
That's true. It was less a comment on "hey look IDS is gone, what are you going to do now?! " and more a confusion as to why this has been seized upon by the various tabloids as something positive.

I just don't understand why the MP with possibly the most political clout on the leave side resigning is supposed to be a good thing.

Is it the political grenade he threw at Cameron/Osborne on the way out perhaps?

Aside from the whole DWP issue, IDS leaving allows him to play I quit my job for the good of the country card.

And, he's also not limited by cabinet collective responsibility, so he can speak his mind on a lot of things.

It's clear to me that on Europe, the Conservative grass roots want out, but the top brass of Dave and George want to stay, come hell or high water.

The dividing line has never been more stark.

Okay, now i'm concerned that despite the majority of people in the uk wanting 'out' (thats how it looks to me anyway) the ex-pats will vote us 'in' because they can't be bothered to renew their passports.

https://www.gov.uk/government/world-location-news/surge-in-expats-applying-to-register-to-vote-as-eu-referendum-date-is-set

 SirDonlad wrote:
Okay, now i'm concerned that despite the majority of people in the uk wanting 'out' (thats how it looks to me anyway) the ex-pats will vote us 'in' because they can't be bothered to renew their passports.

https://www.gov.uk/government/world-location-news/surge-in-expats-applying-to-register-to-vote-as-eu-referendum-date-is-set

Huh. Weird that british citizens might want to continue to make use of the advantages of the EU.

Obviously the solution is to frame it as a personal failing of the people that vote differently to you.

 Goliath wrote:

 SirDonlad wrote:
Okay, now i'm concerned that despite the majority of people in the uk wanting 'out' (thats how it looks to me anyway) the ex-pats will vote us 'in' because they can't be bothered to renew their passports.

https://www.gov.uk/government/world-location-news/surge-in-expats-applying-to-register-to-vote-as-eu-referendum-date-is-set

Huh. Weird that british citizens might want to continue to make use of the advantages of the EU.

Obviously the solution is to frame it as a personal failing of the people that vote differently to you.

I think the point that SirDonlad is trying to make, is that people who have lived outside Britain for years, and will probably continue to do so in the future, are voting on something that will effect the majority of people who live in the UK for most of their lives.

Is that right or wrong? Tricky question.

And? Using that sort of argument, at my place of work I am the youngest by about 25 years. My closest colleague in age is 46 and I am 21 (22 in a fortnight) after that it goes 50 and there are five or six people in their late 50s to mid 60s. They are all adamantly against staying in the EU.

But the thing is, their decision is going to have an effect on me and my generation for, on average, three times as long as it will affect them (assuming average life expectancy of 80). And the vast, vast majority of their arguments are thinly veiled xenophobia or Daily Mail/Sun headlines, whilst they simultaneously have to take advantage of EU immigration rules to travel to Cologne regularly for work.

Should I get more of a vote than them because they're going to be affected less than me? Or because they're actively (and in a couple of cases, wilfully) misinformed about some things?


Because that's a similar sort of point to the one that SirDonlad seemed to be making regarding Expats.

I agree....Nonetheless Goliath should be fired by his clearly older and wiser colleagues for his disloyal thought crime.

 notprop wrote:
I agree....Nonetheless Goliath should be fired by his clearly older and wiser colleagues for his disloyal thought crime.

Honestly, I just want to be able to have an earnest political discussion that doesn't devolve into racism, untruths or jokes about throwing bacon at immigrants.

How peculiar?

Have you considered moving South?

 notprop wrote:
How peculiar?

Have you considered moving South?

I'm in Basildon at the moment Furthest south I've ever lived. I miss the North People were polite and were interested in discussions for the sake of intellectual curiosity

(Either way, this is off-topic and we should start talking about the EU again).

Basically, my point is that there a load of ways in which arguments could be made that people's votes should count for less, but that way lies a lack of democracy based on people's "eligibility" to vote and moves towards a dictatorship where only those deemed worthy are allowed to express their political views.

 Goliath wrote:
And? Using that sort of argument, at my place of work I am the youngest by about 25 years. My closest colleague in age is 46 and I am 21 (22 in a fortnight) after that it goes 50 and there are five or six people in their late 50s to mid 60s. They are all adamantly against staying in the EU.

But the thing is, their decision is going to have an effect on me and my generation for, on average, three times as long as it will affect them (assuming average life expectancy of 80). And the vast, vast majority of their arguments are thinly veiled xenophobia or Daily Mail/Sun headlines, whilst they simultaneously have to take advantage of EU immigration rules to travel to Cologne regularly for work.

Should I get more of a vote than them because they're going to be affected less than me? Or because they're actively (and in a couple of cases, wilfully) misinformed about some things?


Because that's a similar sort of point to the one that SirDonlad seemed to be making regarding Expats.

Hey, don't shoot the messenger!

I'm not saying that I agree or disagree with SirDonlad, I'm just interpreting what point he or she was trying to make.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 notprop wrote:
How peculiar?

Have you considered moving South?

Move South?

Never! Never! A thousand times never!

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 notprop wrote:
How peculiar?

Have you considered moving South?

Move South?

Never! Never! A thousand times never!

Aren't you Scottish?