Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

 djones520 wrote:
http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

I'm watching from there. Really nifty lay out.

That is pretty slick site.

Ugh. Really want to stay up for this but I'm supposed to be starting work in 4 and a half hours.

69% voter turn out. I gotta say, that's not shabby.

 Yodhrin wrote:
Christ on a bike(I'm going to run out of forum-safe expletives if this goes on much longer) - Hartlepool votes 70% for Leave.

Scotland looks on track for somewhere around 60/40 Remain in total, but turnouts are looking more General Election-y than referendum-y which could hurt the UK-wide Remain total.

Possibly. It looks more than likely that the Southern, in particular the London constituencies (which are predicted to vote Remain), will be required to swing it for pro-EU.

Arglefethingbloodygits. There is evidently nothing, at all, that the collection of towering mediocrities that make up Scottish Labour cannot try and blame on the SNP.

A party that didn't even have enough members or cash to run a ground campaign at all and had to rely on UK Labour sending out paid-for postal flyers and Twitter ads is genuinely sitting there on screen trying to claim the SNP failed to run a good enough campaign and are responsible for the slightly-lower-than-expected turnout, despite their activists plodding around delivering leaflets by-hand and running street stalls all over the country.

Can't believe I ever voted for that complete shower.

Feth.

Leave might actually win at this rate.

i think Scotland is just tired of elections and referendums for the timing being. I think there has been at least three or four in 18 months. I certainly don't enjoy being bombarded with propaganda constantly.

Can someone drop some knowledge on me? Is this similar to an electoral college vote, where regions are more important then the overall numbers?

 djones520 wrote:
Can someone drop some knowledge on me? Is this similar to an electoral college vote, where regions are more important then the overall numbers?

Nope, this is a straight numbers game. The phrase is brought out at every election, but here, every vote really does count.

EDIT: Which is why it's disappointing to see turnouts like 60-70%. They're high compared to general elections, where there's a large amount of general apathy due to the way the voting is handled, but now when it's pure numbers and everyone's vote has the same value? There is no excuse to not vote, save untimely death. None. Not one.

I don't think so, this is a one man one vote, which is why the percentages are so important.

I really don't know whos going to win this.

Cheers

Andrew

 Avatar 720 wrote:

 djones520 wrote:
Can someone drop some knowledge on me? Is this similar to an electoral college vote, where regions are more important then the overall numbers?

Nope, this is a straight numbers game. The phrase is brought out at every election, but here, every vote really does count.

Ok. BBC's tracker is putting a lot of emphasis on the regions, so it made me curious.

Number of votes are more important.

It's not like an electoral debate, effectively voting for a majority to claim a seat in parliament. It has a national link for sure, but your mainly voting for your region's representative.

 djones520 wrote:

 Avatar 720 wrote:

 djones520 wrote:
Can someone drop some knowledge on me? Is this similar to an electoral college vote, where regions are more important then the overall numbers?

Nope, this is a straight numbers game. The phrase is brought out at every election, but here, every vote really does count.

Ok. BBC's tracker is putting a lot of emphasis on the regions, so it made me curious.

That's more just the gauge which regions are voting which way. What really matters is the semi-circular tracker at the top of the page.

 djones520 wrote:

 Avatar 720 wrote:

 djones520 wrote:
Can someone drop some knowledge on me? Is this similar to an electoral college vote, where regions are more important then the overall numbers?

Nope, this is a straight numbers game. The phrase is brought out at every election, but here, every vote really does count.

Ok. BBC's tracker is putting a lot of emphasis on the regions, so it made me curious.

That's an artifact of the counting process - votes are tallied on a regional basis at the counting venues then reported to the national returning officer/s, but the final tally is a straight up number-of-votes-for-each result nationwide.

It's also a focus because some of the polling has generated large enough regional subsamples for them to make some predictions on which way they would go, on which note another worrying development; Swansea was tipped to vote Remain by a modest margin but has in fact voted narrowly Leave. Earlier results has Leave up, sometimes substantially, on their expected total, but Swansea is the first region to come down completely for the other side.

Some City analysts are forecasting the pound to tank as much as 40% when the markets open if it's Leave. For reference, so-called "Black Wednesday" in the 90's "only" dropped the value of the pound by about 16%...

Sterling now at $1.40 to the pound, an the Ftse futures indicating a 5% fall at opening. Not going to be a good day tomorrow on current showing.

Lambeth and Glasgow have just provided two huge swings towards Remain, putting them back in the majority for the time being. Turnout not as expected though.

I should really sleep, I need to be in a Psychology study at 3pm...

EDIT: Wandsworth is huge for Remain as well. Definite shift considering two hours ago.

I'm surprised at the Glasgow result, not sure what I was expecting though.

Since I'm a southsider, Shawlands to be exact, I thought the vote was quite weak. The turnout isn't a big as the independence vote, and I wonder if this vote is a result of the Independence vote going against them, so lets kick the Tories.

Time will tell I suppose.

Cheers

Andrew


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Frozocrone wrote:
I should really sleep, I need to be in a Psychology study at 3pm....

If this referendum isn't a study in the national psychology I don't know what is. Claim it as a study exercise?

Andrew

Looks like London might swing this either way in the end.

It's like watching a race of two equally matched horses. Both keep swapping sides, but they're only a tenth of the way around the track.

Remain now 100k ahead of Leave, and many people on my Twitter feed have suddenly stopped bemoaning and cursing the rampant idiocy of half their fellow countryfolk for bringing on the end of days, and have now started a circlejerk.

I don't think I've muted this many people on social media... ever, actually, never mind in one sitting. I can only imagine what it's been like for Remainers who've spent the last few hours dealing with it from obnoxious Leavers.

The behaviour I've seen tonight has been appalling.

 Avatar 720 wrote:
Remain now 100k ahead of Leave, and many people on my Twitter feed have suddenly stopped bemoaning and cursing the rampant idiocy of half their fellow countryfolk for bringing on the end of days, and have now started a circlejerk.

I don't think I've muted this many people on social media... ever, actually, never mind in one sitting. I can only imagine what it's been like for Remainers who've spent the last few hours dealing with it from obnoxious Leavers.

The behaviour I've seen tonight has been appalling.

Leave had a majority of 150,000 earlier. It's far, far too early to tell anything except that this is probably going to be closer than anyone predicted.

The question is, what would happen if it was 50% either way?

It is very exciting and even exasperating, because the results are always changing.
But, in the, end I don't believe "Leave" has a chance. It is always like this, you can't change the way the world is, even if they let you believe you can.

 Ketara wrote:

 Avatar 720 wrote:
Remain now 100k ahead of Leave, and many people on my Twitter feed have suddenly stopped bemoaning and cursing the rampant idiocy of half their fellow countryfolk for bringing on the end of days, and have now started a circlejerk.

I don't think I've muted this many people on social media... ever, actually, never mind in one sitting. I can only imagine what it's been like for Remainers who've spent the last few hours dealing with it from obnoxious Leavers.

The behaviour I've seen tonight has been appalling.

Leave had a majority of 150,000 earlier. It's far, far too early to tell anything except that this is probably going to be closer than anyone predicted.

The question is, what would happen if it was 50% either way?

Exactly 50%? Uhhh PM decides?

I'm not too sure.

London is literally the kingmaker in a straight vote count. So many people that a 65% slant in one direction can a side to move forward 50,000 votes. Those two large London constituencies that have voted remain account for most of the remain majority right now. Once the others start trickling in, it'll be interesting,

 Ketara wrote:

 Avatar 720 wrote:
Remain now 100k ahead of Leave, and many people on my Twitter feed have suddenly stopped bemoaning and cursing the rampant idiocy of half their fellow countryfolk for bringing on the end of days, and have now started a circlejerk.

I don't think I've muted this many people on social media... ever, actually, never mind in one sitting. I can only imagine what it's been like for Remainers who've spent the last few hours dealing with it from obnoxious Leavers.

The behaviour I've seen tonight has been appalling.

Leave had a majority of 150,000 earlier. It's far, far too early to tell anything except that this is probably going to be closer than anyone predicted.

The question is, what would happen if it was 50% either way?

I couldn't agree more. The largest region to declare so far has been Glasgow City, with ~250k votes out of an eligible ~360k, with a poor 56.2% turnout, in a City of 606k. London by itself has a population of over 8.5 million, and the first borough of it to vote only accounted for 140k. Even if we assume 1/3 of London is ineligible, and even somehow only gets a 56.2% turnout, you're still looking at 2-3 million votes.

This race isn't even close to finished.

 Frozocrone wrote:

 Ketara wrote:

 Avatar 720 wrote:
Remain now 100k ahead of Leave, and many people on my Twitter feed have suddenly stopped bemoaning and cursing the rampant idiocy of half their fellow countryfolk for bringing on the end of days, and have now started a circlejerk.

I don't think I've muted this many people on social media... ever, actually, never mind in one sitting. I can only imagine what it's been like for Remainers who've spent the last few hours dealing with it from obnoxious Leavers.

The behaviour I've seen tonight has been appalling.

Leave had a majority of 150,000 earlier. It's far, far too early to tell anything except that this is probably going to be closer than anyone predicted.

The question is, what would happen if it was 50% either way?

Exactly 50%? Uhhh PM decides?

I'm not too sure.

There's no set rule, the referendum isn't legally binding on the government, it's advisory, it's just that any government that overrode the result would do so at huge risk. So I gives it would come to 'if you can't make up your minds, we'll decide.

It's looking more and more like this is going to come down to turnout in London. They're getting big stonking percentage leads for Remain, but a lot of the other areas in England & Wales that were supposed to be close-ish results are going more like 60/40 Leave on high turnouts, and if that trend continues those votes are going to add up.

I think the lower-than-hoped turnout in Scotland and Glasgow particularly isn't that difficult to explain; voter fatigue.This is the fifth ballot and the second referendum we've had up here in the last two years, and our national elections were only just back in May.

Just seen the Moray vote!!!! 122 votes to carry the remain side. CFP is being remembered in the historic fishing fleets.

Mark Gettleson
‏@MarksOutOf100
Watford votes Leave. Educated commuter belt. This is all but over. Inner London is not *that* big #EUref

Seems too early...

Although... the leave seems to be inching closing to the lead.

Liverpool goes Remain, but the turnout is only 64% o_0