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 Bottle wrote:
Sales only fell by 0.9% but has it fallen by in previous years?

Sales fell by 4.7% by my quick calculations.

So overall, still profitable, but revenue in both real and inflation adjusted terms continues to decline, and there's an increasing emphasis on IP licensing. This would seem to follow the trend of the last...decade I guess.

The revenue has only dropped a small amount, but the profit, pre licence revenue, has dropped by £4m, which is almost a third.

So they've spent more money to generate the same amount of cash as they did last year, more or less.

Ultimately this won't matter to investors, a profit is a profit and identifying a new source of cash is exactly the sort of thing that a healthy, outward looking, company should be doing, but as wargamers, that they still haven't grown the core business, despite adopting a lot of the measures that they were roundly, and correctly, criticised for not taking sooner, should give us pause.

My first instinct is that they're giving away more product at a lower price, but haven't managed to either grow their customer base or solicit higher spending from existing customers sufficiently to offset it.

I still think they're on the right track, and there's no cause for panic, but there's still fundamental issues that need addressing.

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 Bottle wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 Bottle wrote:
Sales only fell by 0.9% what has it fallen by in previous years?

Sales fell by 4.7% by my quick calculations.

Do you mean in previous years? Because the report explicitly states sales fell by 0.9% this year. If it's a smaller amount than previous years perhaps it's a sign of the new measures curbing the decline - and they might be able to level it off for next year or make a small growth in revenue.

A big part of the decrease in profits is the £2.5 mil increase in costs due to investments including more stores and the Asia management team.

I was talking about this report, where do they say 0.9%? I calculated 4.7%

The definition of "sales" is revenue minus income from sources other than goods going to customers, so I subtracted off the royalties from the total revenue (though it could be slightly different from that depending on how you calculate the various figures).

EDIT: Just found the -0.9% sales figure in the report. It seems GW equates sales to revenue, I find that slightly odd. Does that mean their "revenue" is only revenue from customers, ie. "sales", or that they are misrepresenting "sales" to include income from other sources? I could probably figure it out from the rest of the numbers in the report but I don't have time right now.

So it's pretty much as bad as we feared then?

Unit-sales keep declining, and by quite a bit this time, and it's only by handing out their IP like candy that they remain somewhat level when compared with previous years.

Just looked, GW's stock it went up. Hmm maybe some feel they are on the right track now? According to google it happened at around 4:30 pm. Don't know if it's a decent amount I don't really have a head for business.

f2k wrote:
So it's pretty much as bad as we feared then?

Unit-sales keep declining, and by quite a bit this time, and it's only by handing out their IP like candy that they remain somewhat level when compared with previous years.

Nah, it's not handing out IP like candy that's keeping them strong, it's specifically handing it out to a top tier developer to make Total War.

 Bottle wrote:

A big part of the decrease in profits is the £2.5 mil increase in costs due to investments including more stores and the Asia management team.

Which isn't (yet) justifying it's expense.

It's difficult to make a call on whether there's been sufficient time for the spending to impact income, that money may have all been spent last August or a week before they closed the books for the year, so it may pay off next year.

Thing is, they've paused the rollout of stores in Europe because they're not pulling their weight, and are still insisting on pursuing North America, which is a historical graveyard for UK companies, and doing so by opening traditional retail stores when they're becoming increasingly anachronistic.

At least we get an acknowledgment that the management structure was too flat (and is being addressed) and that one man stores aren't the universal panacea that Kirby seemed to believe they were.

We really need to see revenue starting to increase in revenue soon though, otherwise the 'investment' wil simply have been 'spent.'

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

f2k wrote:
So it's pretty much as bad as we feared then?

Unit-sales keep declining, and by quite a bit this time, and it's only by handing out their IP like candy that they remain somewhat level when compared with previous years.

Nah, it's not handing out IP like candy that's keeping them strong, it's specifically handing it out to a top tier developer to make Total War.

I think they should do more of that get the IP to good game developers, I assume that's how wizard's stays afloat? I mean I know most people play the video games than actual DnD.

No, Wizards stays afloat because of Magic.

 shinros wrote:
Just looked, GW's stock it went up. Hmm maybe some feel they are on the right track now? According to google it happened at around 4:30 pm. Don't know if it's a decent amount I don't really have a head for business.

They've announced a dividend, people are buying stock to qualify and driving the price up. GW aren't big enough to illicit a market reaction based solely on their management, they're largely owned by funds because they pay out regularly and for a long while were increasing in share value.

 Azreal13 wrote:
No, Wizards stays afloat because of Magic.

 shinros wrote:
Just looked, GW's stock it went up. Hmm maybe some feel they are on the right track now? According to google it happened at around 4:30 pm. Don't know if it's a decent amount I don't really have a head for business.

They've announced a dividend, people are buying stock to qualify and driving the price up. GW aren't big enough to illicit a market reaction based solely on their management, they're largely owned by funds because they pay out regularly and for a long while were increasing in share value.

Oh yeah magic, forgot about that heh.

I see, thanks for the explanation I appreciate it.

No problem, and while you're right that the price did increase today, the price is still looking like its at something like a 5 year low, and it's been lower this week.

 Azreal13 wrote:
No problem, and while you're right that the price did increase today, the price is still looking like its at something like a 5 year low, and it's been lower this week.

It does look like a big jump though in one go according to graph. So is it a question of can they keep this up?

It's a few pennies, less than 10p a share. It's really nothing to be excited about.

To put it in context, when they announced that their revenue was down for the first time in years a few years back, the price fell almost £2 in one day.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
That was a big deal!

 Azreal13 wrote:
It's a few pennies, less than 10p a share. It's really nothing to be excited about.

To put it in context, when they announced that their revenue was down for the first time in years a few years back, the price fell almost £2 in one day.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
That was a big deal!

I see thanks for the information.

 Azreal13 wrote:

 shinros wrote:
Just looked, GW's stock it went up. Hmm maybe some feel they are on the right track now? According to google it happened at around 4:30 pm. Don't know if it's a decent amount I don't really have a head for business.

They've announced a dividend, people are buying stock to qualify and driving the price up. GW aren't big enough to illicit a market reaction based solely on their management, they're largely owned by funds because they pay out regularly and for a long while were increasing in share value.

Where are you getting that there's a dividend? I haven't seen anything announced, and one was paid a couple of months or so ago. GW has always paid decent dividends, last financial year as 40p per share the year before was 52p and the share price is about 4.65, that's about 8% yield which is pretty impressive in the current market.

 Azreal13 wrote:

I agree that a lot of stuff, both factual and anecdotal, coming out of GW recently seems to be positive, but let's not gloss over the fact that the licensing revenue saved their ass, and it's another period of contraction for the core business.

That's my take from skimming the report as well. Their core business (minis and games) is down yet again but their old hard work from decades past is still paying off. Gw have IMHO been doing alot right in the last year like HH plastics, Deathwatch, Blood Bowl, Epic, and the reintroduction of some sanity back to AOS with the general's handbook...but they still haven't addressed the core issues that made me largely give up on them...namely bonkers pricing and a bloated unbalanced mess of a ruleset in 40k. I firmly put them under the same heading as the cubs... better but maybe next year.

richred_uk wrote:

 Azreal13 wrote:

 shinros wrote:
Just looked, GW's stock it went up. Hmm maybe some feel they are on the right track now? According to google it happened at around 4:30 pm. Don't know if it's a decent amount I don't really have a head for business.

They've announced a dividend, people are buying stock to qualify and driving the price up. GW aren't big enough to illicit a market reaction based solely on their management, they're largely owned by funds because they pay out regularly and for a long while were increasing in share value.

Where are you getting that there's a dividend? I haven't seen anything announced, and one was paid a couple of months or so ago. GW has always paid decent dividends, last financial year as 40p per share the year before was 52p and the share price is about 4.65, that's about 8% yield which is pretty impressive in the current market.

Yeah, ok, somewhat of an assumption in my part, I'd basically had three separate thoughts and didn't really express myself all that well. There's basically no way on earth they won't declare this year, so a positive financial report coupled with historically regular dividends was always going to generate positive market reaction.

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I think not counting Calth and Deathwatch as 40K releases is an error, it's an assumption, but I think a safe one, that a sizable chunk of their sales can be attributed to people buying the models for 40K/30K projects. The Assassin one too.

Silver Tower falls outside this accounting period, but that was the first game I got the impression was bought as much for the game as the models.

There's probably something in what you're saying though, but that does put an immense amount of presshure on that revamp to deliver if they're going to return the miniatures business to growth.

 Azreal13 wrote:

I still think they're on the right track, and there's no cause for panic, but there's still fundamental issues that need addressing.

Well they are doing things that people have wanted like specialist games.

But the core games are still rising in price beyond inflation.

In 5 Years a box of sternguard is going to be $100.

It won't matter how amazing the sculpts are if no-one can afford it.

They won't be on the right track until they make the core game not pants on head expensive.

"On the right track" doesn't mean "everything is done, finished and at its destination."

Specialist games would be a very good example of "on the right track," core games being expensive would be "fundamental issues that need addressing."

Although I don't think price is, in isolation, a massive issue, but rather it's distorted through the lens of crappy rules.

Just give me fething BFG in plastic already! Don't even touch the rules, the community has a perfect set of fan-made FAQs and revisions, just release plastic kits!

But on a more topic related note, I'm hoping specialist games are done right and sell well so GW will be motivated to keep doing right by SG.

So I read the thing once again with a little more attention. I am bit dissapointed to say the least.

I was more focussing on the words rather then the numbers.

AoS is doing better then WHFB, but how much better? If you go and say that this and this part of the trading is x and y procent better why dont you say something about this???

I already mentioned, that misinformation that all of the stuff is created in Nottingham is Beastmen droppings atleast.

Maybe I get this wrong but I dont think that all the licensing deals where made under Mr. Rountrees era, yet he talks as his team spoils.

Also its nice to mention that he talks about growing market for AoS. but they core business fall by 3.1 million pounds.

I really wish Hastings will show up here and gives his 2 cents about this report.

Why, is Hastings an accountant? Because just knowing what models are due for release isn't a prerequisite for financial insight.

Rountree is long term senior management, so any deals done before the Kirby era ended he was still likely heavily involved in, so he's probably well within his rights to claim some credit.

Don't be surprised that negatives are glossed over and positives exaggerated. This isn't an impartial analysis, this is the company presenting its best face to its investors, within the realms of law, if you want the real picture you need to read between the lines and look deeper than the first few pages.

Any indications on the boardgame sales, if that is a reasonable slice we can expect more of those, and what Blacksails said! (although i wish some new ships though

Motley Fool article covering GW:

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/341453/are-lloyds-banking-group-plc-games-workshop-group-plc-and-pz-cussons-plc-brexit-barg?context=LSE:GAW

 Azreal13 wrote:
My first instinct is that they're giving away more product at a lower price, but haven't managed to either grow their customer base or solicit higher spending from existing customers sufficiently to offset it.

I can't speak for others, but for me, this is certainly the case. I'm buying a lot more product for a lot less money this year, because there are bundles which are great deals, yielding far, far, more models than I can paint. Like, I bought 2 of the Knight boxes -- that's a whole lot of painting to catch up on. Silver Tower. The AoS hero box. DWO. Start Collecting boxes. Et cetera. In fact, in the last 12 months, I've accumulated way more sprues than I have ever accumulated (my closet sure thinks so, anyways), but spent considerably less money.

Also, there have been few 40k codex drops, and no big 40k multi-model faction updates since Tau. Not much on the Astartes/Imperium model side, nor Eldar, both of which make me spend pretty big. I really like the AoS models, but I can't quite bring myself to painting up full fledged fantasy army yet. Though I must admit, the Syvaneth have me re-evaluating that for a bit down the road.

On the other hand, I've spent a lot more money on GW supplies than ever -- airbrush paints, drybrush paints, paintbrushes, drybrushes, washes, and so on. And even 3 of the big zigzag Crusader cases as I pack up some of my old models from shelves to make way for some new ones. My local shop is going to start stocking the GW airbrush paints in the fall, which will probably shift a whole bunch of my Vallejo to GW -- since Game Air is a special order, and I hate having to sometimes wait weeks for it. GW just needs an airbrush primer now

All good though. I really want to wrap up my Blood Angels this year, so that I can move on to some other stuff


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Azreal13 wrote:
I think not counting Calth and Deathwatch as 40K releases is an error, it's an assumption, but I think a safe one, that a sizable chunk of their sales can be attributed to people buying the models for 40K/30K projects. The Assassin one too.

Calth and Assassins for sure; everyone I know who bought them wanted the models for 40k (or 30k) at least as much as the game. Most definitely, for the assassins, lol. However, DWO is another beast, I think -- I know quite a lot of people who bought it just for the cool models. I've yet to see DW fielded as 40k units in a game, but that's just me.