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 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 whembly wrote:
I thought ya'll argued that post-article 50 triggering, the reasonable thing would be to have a snap election.

So that ya'll have a chance to get your "peeps" in to negotiate the Brexit?

Or, is this some ploy for May's party to increase their majority?

I wanted an election prior to enacting A50 as, even if a pro-EU government were elected, there is no guarantee we can cancel A50.

As for this being a ploy, basically nothing has changed since May was emphatically saying that there should be no election until 2020 except for the Tories gaining a big lead over Labour in polls. Do the maths

For weeks, May has been saying that now is not the time for another Scottish independence referendum, and now this massive U-turn on a GE.

The SNP will be having a right laugh at May, and will make capital from the U-turn.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Parliament overwhelmingly voted for article 50. She doesn't need a majority.

This yet another reason why there should have been an election prior to enacting A50. With the way it was done, there was no chance for people who voted to Remain to get MPs into parliament who represented their views, especially with the Tories and Labour using the whip to vote in favour.

So even if there had been a swing towards remain after the referendum, it would not be represented in parliament as all of the parties were still basing their stances on the referendum result.

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Parliament overwhelmingly voted for article 50. She doesn't need a majority.

This yet another reason why there should have been an election prior to enacting A50. With the way it was done, there was no chance for people who voted to Remain to get MPs into parliament who represented their views, especially with the Tories and Labour using the whip to vote in favour.

So even if there had been a swing towards remain after the referendum, it would not be represented in parliament as all of the parties were still basing their stances on the referendum result.

You're aware A50 could theoretically be withdrawn? If remainers care enough to catapult the lib dems into power, Brexit will likely go kaput.

Vince Cable has said he's running again for Parliament. God help us

 Ketara wrote:

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Parliament overwhelmingly voted for article 50. She doesn't need a majority.

This yet another reason why there should have been an election prior to enacting A50. With the way it was done, there was no chance for people who voted to Remain to get MPs into parliament who represented their views, especially with the Tories and Labour using the whip to vote in favour.

So even if there had been a swing towards remain after the referendum, it would not be represented in parliament as all of the parties were still basing their stances on the referendum result.

You're aware A50 could theoretically be withdrawn? If remainers care enough to catapult the lib dems into power, Brexit will likely go kaput.

The word to emphasise there is theoretically. I would rather certainty about the possibility of retreat before committing to a path.

 Ketara wrote:

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Parliament overwhelmingly voted for article 50. She doesn't need a majority.

This yet another reason why there should have been an election prior to enacting A50. With the way it was done, there was no chance for people who voted to Remain to get MPs into parliament who represented their views, especially with the Tories and Labour using the whip to vote in favour.

So even if there had been a swing towards remain after the referendum, it would not be represented in parliament as all of the parties were still basing their stances on the referendum result.

You're aware A50 could theoretically be withdrawn? If remainers care enough to catapult the lib dems into power, Brexit will likely go kaput.

Nah, the Brexit ship has sailed, and the Lib Dem torpedoes will harmlessly bounce off the hull.

A lot of people are overlooking party finances and base.

The SNP are well placed for money and activists. The Tories will probably get a dodgy donor throwing them some cash. Plus they can count on Middle England.

Labour have the activists but not the money. The Lib Dems are struggling in both areas.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Ketara wrote:

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Parliament overwhelmingly voted for article 50. She doesn't need a majority.

This yet another reason why there should have been an election prior to enacting A50. With the way it was done, there was no chance for people who voted to Remain to get MPs into parliament who represented their views, especially with the Tories and Labour using the whip to vote in favour.

So even if there had been a swing towards remain after the referendum, it would not be represented in parliament as all of the parties were still basing their stances on the referendum result.

You're aware A50 could theoretically be withdrawn? If remainers care enough to catapult the lib dems into power, Brexit will likely go kaput.

Nah, the Brexit ship has sailed, and the Lib Dem torpedoes will harmlessly bounce off the hull.

A lot of people are overlooking party finances and base.

The SNP are well placed for money and activists. The Tories will probably get a dodgy donor throwing them some cash. Plus they can count on Middle England.

Labour have the activists but not the money. The Lib Dems are struggling in both areas.

Which is probably another reason the Tories don't want TV debates. TV debates would give wider exposure to other parties and their policies. Better for the Tories to just outspend them with dodgy battle buses and way more adverts.

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Ketara wrote:

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Parliament overwhelmingly voted for article 50. She doesn't need a majority.

This yet another reason why there should have been an election prior to enacting A50. With the way it was done, there was no chance for people who voted to Remain to get MPs into parliament who represented their views, especially with the Tories and Labour using the whip to vote in favour.

So even if there had been a swing towards remain after the referendum, it would not be represented in parliament as all of the parties were still basing their stances on the referendum result.

You're aware A50 could theoretically be withdrawn? If remainers care enough to catapult the lib dems into power, Brexit will likely go kaput.

Nah, the Brexit ship has sailed, and the Lib Dem torpedoes will harmlessly bounce off the hull.

A lot of people are overlooking party finances and base.

The SNP are well placed for money and activists. The Tories will probably get a dodgy donor throwing them some cash. Plus they can count on Middle England.

Labour have the activists but not the money. The Lib Dems are struggling in both areas.

Which is probably another reason the Tories don't want TV debates. TV debates would give wider exposure to other parties and their policies. Better for the Tories to just outspend them with dodgy battle buses and way more adverts.

A statement from the CPS has just said that the investigations will continue into 2015 election expenses, irrespective of what is happening on June 8th, so yeah, you're right. The last thing the Tories need is election fraud being flagged up in a debate watched by millions.

Will this also give May chance to change around the Conservative Manifesto, so that she doesn't have to stick to what Cameron and Co, put in it?

So we have a Remainer, in May, leading her party in a leave campaign against the Leaver, Corbyn, leading his party in a remain campaign then right ?


..and people say politics isn't confusing ?

One almost feels sorry for those Russian hackers.
Not only have they suddenly had a deadline thrust upon them but they'll still have to decide which party will do more damage to the UK.

There'd been some speculation about May's health, apparently, but one hopes/assumes this is not related.

Yet another chance for we, the public, to feth ourselves deeper and more painfully than ever before.


It's almost as if they want to get an election out of the way before the consequences of Brexit start to become apparent......

I suppose the idea is that the different parties can put up the Brexit Battle Buses and people can vote on which one they like the best.


It probably won't work that way.

But it was a surprise to have upon returning to my German Hotel room!

It makes sense to me. Invoke Article 50, because that's what the referendum and parliament said.

However, the question of what kind of Brexit, hard, soft, what do people most care about, is something that's never really been answered.

And that sort of question, with all its nuances and differing priorities and decisions can do with a general election to decide what particular aspect Brexit is going for.

 Compel wrote:
It makes sense to me. Invoke Article 50, because that's what the referendum and parliament said.

However, the question of what kind of Brexit, hard, soft, what do people most care about, is something that's never really been answered.

And that sort of question, with all its nuances and differing priorities and decisions can do with a general election to decide what particular aspect Brexit is going for.

That was my initial read as well...

Question, with these snap elections, does that reset the "5-year" term?

As I understand it, there's provision in the 5 year term setup for this.

Essentially the MPs (tomorrow?) make a vote, determining whether there's "No Confidence" in the Government. This requires 75%, so is a pretty difficult thing to do - and will require a number of MPs agreeing to this from various parties.

At which point, if agreed, on June 9th, a new 5 year term will start.

If that 75% threshold DOESN'T happen, presumably things will just continue as it was, and we'll have Brexit May style (whether people personally agree with that or not).


Before this 5 year term, you didn't need that 'no confidence' vote, and people could just declare an election whenever, according to whatever tides is turning that day.


This is just my own personal understanding though, I'm not a political analyst.

 Ketara wrote:


She told ITV:-

Before Easter I spent a few days walking in Wales with my husband, thought about this long and hard and came to the decision that to provide that stability and certainty for the future that this was the way to do it, to have an election.

Bizarrely though she came out on Easter Monday saying that the Country was coming together after Brexit and then a few days later she is saying the country is too divided over the issue... Doesn't really add up.

Message to all

DON'T VOTE FOR LYING TORIES AND DARTH MAY!


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 Future War Cultist wrote:
How well do you think the lib dems will do? They'll probably position themselves as the party of undoing Brexit. There could be a lot of votes to be had there.

There's still an awful lot of anger over the Brexit debate and that a lot of populace were lied to get a outcome that a few Tories thought they'd benefit from. Not even Boris thought he'd win, but used it as a political gambit to further his career. For a lot of people they view it as a bit of a smash and grab in football terms especially for the younger generation who, for many, view Brexit as old grumblers wrenching a future away from them that they weren't given.

A real question is how many of those that didn't want to leave the EU and didn't vote realise that this is an opportunity to mitigate some of the massive damage the Tories will inevitably inflict on the Country.

DON'T VOTE FOR THE LYING TORIES AND EMPRESS MAY

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/854347414798569472

Tories confirm Theresa May won't take part in general election TV debates. "Our answer is no."

..hmm..


Little surprised but, upon reflection, quite pleased as that's one less painful thing to have to sit through.


Banks has claimed he will stand against Carswell -- may god have mercy on those poor voters.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-opposes-automatic-reselection-of-labour-mps-for-general-election-sources-claim_uk_58f638a7e4b0b9e9848ec795?zs9

Jeremy Corbyn To Oppose Automatic Reselection Of Labour MPs For General Election 2017, Sources Claim.

yeah best argue and shout at each other rather than, I dunno, your actual opposition.

May has called the election because this is her best chance to get a public mandate and a large majority for 5 years of conservative rule.

It's pretty obvious that Labour are going to collapse. UKIP will fall apart and a lot of their natural voters will vote Tory. The SNP will of course win Scotland and nothing outside. The pro-Brexit Tories will line up behind May and she will get most of the anti-Brexit Tories because power.

The best hope for any kind of opposition is the LDP, who probably will make some good gains in both Labour and Conservative marginal constituencies where there is a strong Remain vote (e.g Richmond-on-Thames.) Even so, I don't see them getting into position of being the second largest party.

As far as one can tell from a bit of websearching the boundary commission has not finished its work so we'll be using the current boundaries/seats right ?

 reds8n wrote:
As far as one can tell from a bit of websearching the boundary commission has not finished its work so we'll be using the current boundaries/seats right ?

Yes there won't be time to finish the changes and to get proper debate through parliament before they close for the election. This is another reason not to want a huge Tory majority - it means almost certainly a big shake up in the boundaries that will even more favour the Tory party.

As for Labour I see that MPs are now leaving before the election gets underway....

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tom-blenkinsop-labour-snap-election_uk_58f5f585e4b0b9e9848e4216?utm_hp_ref=uk&utm_hp_ref=uk

 Compel wrote:
Essentially the MPs (tomorrow?) make a vote, determining whether there's "No Confidence" in the Government. This requires 75%, so is a pretty difficult thing to do - and will require a number of MPs agreeing to this from various parties.

Not quite. You are correct that the fixed term prevents Empress May from doing whatever she wants, whenever she wants (something that must really rankle with her), but there are other ways to call a general election. A vote of no confidence is one possible way of getting it done, but it wouldn't look great. A no confidence vote is bad for the reputation. May is going to submit a bill asking that parliament be dissolved. Should that not go through then there is the option of going for no confidence.

 Compel wrote:
At which point, if agreed, on June 9th, a new 5 year term will start.

Before this 5 year term, you didn't need that 'no confidence' vote, and people could just declare an election whenever, according to whatever tides is turning that day.

Which is why May's flip, from not wanting to call a general election to recognising how bad Labour's condition currently is and suddenly wanting one, is such cowardly opportunism that I have no polite words to call her.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
May has called the election because this is her best chance to get a public mandate and a large majority for 5 years of conservative rule.

It's pretty obvious that Labour are going to collapse. UKIP will fall apart and a lot of their natural voters will vote Tory. The SNP will of course win Scotland and nothing outside. The pro-Brexit Tories will line up behind May and she will get most of the anti-Brexit Tories because power.

The best hope for any kind of opposition is the LDP, who probably will make some good gains in both Labour and Conservative marginal constituencies where there is a strong Remain vote (e.g Richmond-on-Thames.) Even so, I don't see them getting into position of being the second largest party.

Our best hope is that Labour don't vent enough seats that Lib Dems can't regain elsewhere (such as in London). We only need a hung parliament to ensure that proper debate and compromise is had rather than ultra right bigotry taking over and damning the country for a generation.

DON'T VOTE FOR THE LYING TORIES AND DARTH MAY


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 Henry wrote:

Which is why May's flip, from not wanting to call a general election to recognising how bad Labour's condition currently is and suddenly wanting one, is such cowardly opportunism that I have no polite words to call her.

Agreed, but there is one flip side. If Labour do really badly then they will have no choice but to rid themselves of Corbyn. Of course who they replace him with is another question (I vote for Tony Blair.... )

Something, something, Americanisation of British politics something, something, mumble, mumble...

 Whirlwind wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
May has called the election because this is her best chance to get a public mandate and a large majority for 5 years of conservative rule.

It's pretty obvious that Labour are going to collapse. UKIP will fall apart and a lot of their natural voters will vote Tory. The SNP will of course win Scotland and nothing outside. The pro-Brexit Tories will line up behind May and she will get most of the anti-Brexit Tories because power.

The best hope for any kind of opposition is the LDP, who probably will make some good gains in both Labour and Conservative marginal constituencies where there is a strong Remain vote (e.g Richmond-on-Thames.) Even so, I don't see them getting into position of being the second largest party.

Our best hope is that Labour don't vent enough seats that Lib Dems can't regain elsewhere (such as in London). We only need a hung parliament to ensure that proper debate and compromise is had rather than ultra right bigotry taking over and damning the country for a generation.

DON'T VOTE FOR THE LYING TORIES AND DARTH MAY


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Henry wrote:

Which is why May's flip, from not wanting to call a general election to recognising how bad Labour's condition currently is and suddenly wanting one, is such cowardly opportunism that I have no polite words to call her.

Agreed, but there is one flip side. If Labour do really badly then they will have no choice but to rid themselves of Corbyn. Of course who they replace him with is another question (I vote for Tony Blair.... )

With Corbyn if they do not get act together they will lose badly the Labour party will take a torpedo and take on alot of water.
The lib Dems are too weak to manage much.

They can use a campaign battle mini bus.

Just need the one bus with any old bollocks written on it if the referendum is anything go by.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Just need the one bus with any old bollocks written on it if the referendum is anything go by.

Personally, I'm hoping to see Ed's tombstones wheeled out again!

On a serious note, which dodgy donor will fund the Tories this time around?

By all accounts, every man and his dog got a knighthood or an MBE when Dave resigned, so who's left for them to persuade with a knighthood for some cash?

I suspect we'll find out in Private Eye 18 months down the line, but by that time, everybody will have lost interest.


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My big fear is what is going to happen to the council elections in 4 weeks' time?

The bread and butter stuff they deal with is probably more important than grandstanding about Syria or North Korea, but turnout is always low for them, and is likely to be lower as they will be overshadowed by this GE.

And that's a damn shame in my book.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Just need the one bus with any old bollocks written on it if the referendum is anything go by.

Personally, I'm hoping to see Ed's tombstones wheeled out again!

On a serious note, which dodgy donor will fund the Tories this time around?

By all accounts, every man and his dog got a knighthood or an MBE when Dave resigned, so who's left for them to persuade with a knighthood for some cash?

I suspect we'll find out in Private Eye 18 months down the line, but by that time, everybody will have lost interest.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
My big fear is what is going to happen to the council elections in 4 weeks' time?

The bread and butter stuff they deal with is probably more important than grandstanding about Syria or North Korea, but turnout is always low for them, and is likely to be lower as they will be overshadowed by this GE.

And that's a damn shame in my book.

True but if true. Can we not send foreign Aid to NK?
Umm its only gonna get spent on wine, cheese of missile tests.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
It's pretty obvious that Labour are going to collapse. UKIP will fall apart and a lot of their natural voters will vote Tory. The SNP will of course win Scotland and nothing outside.

See, this is I think is a massive opportunity for the SNP.

They are perfectly placed to become THE opposition. If Labour collapses, thats going to leave a political vacuum. There are going to be plenty of left leaning people across England crying out for a new left wing party to rally behind. The SNP could be that party, if they would only expand their horizons and seek more broad support in England and Wales. And yes, I do appreciate the irony in suggesting that a Nationalist Party that seeks independence should campaign for support in a country it wants to secede from.

If they do go ahead with this Indy Ref 2.0, and still lose once again, then they need to accept defeat, abandon that goal and stop sniping and whining from the sidelines. They should step up and engage fully in the UK. If you can't leave it, change it. If the Tories truly are as bad as people in this thread like to suggest, then another 5 years of unfettered Tory government with a shrivelled husk of a Labour opposition will be the perfect opportunity for a new Left Wing party to ruse from Labour's ashes.

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

See, this is I think is a massive opportunity for the SNP.

They are perfectly placed to become THE opposition. If Labour collapses, thats going to leave a political vacuum. There are going to be plenty of left leaning people across England crying out for a new left wing party to rally behind. The SNP could be that party, if they would only expand their horizons and seek more broad support in England and Wales. And yes, I do appreciate the irony in suggesting that a Nationalist Party that seeks independence should campaign for support in a country it wants to secede from.

I don't think it would be that ironic. It could serve to demonstrate that there are portions of the populace outside Scotland who would support Scottish independence. It's easy for the Tories to ignore the SNP and their calls of independence when they're limited to the 50 odd seats of Scotland but if they start to get gains in other parts of the UK?

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

See, this is I think is a massive opportunity for the SNP.

They are perfectly placed to become THE opposition. If Labour collapses, thats going to leave a political vacuum. There are going to be plenty of left leaning people across England crying out for a new left wing party to rally behind. The SNP could be that party, if they would only expand their horizons and seek more broad support in England and Wales. And yes, I do appreciate the irony in suggesting that a Nationalist Party that seeks independence should campaign for support in a country it wants to secede from.

I don't think it would be that ironic. It could serve to demonstrate that there are portions of the populace outside Scotland who would support Scottish independence. It's easy for the Tories to ignore the SNP and their calls of independence when they're limited to the 50 odd seats of Scotland but if they start to get gains in other parts of the UK?

You're completely missing the point. I'm suggesting that left leaning voters in england might vote for the SNP not in support of Scottish independence, but because they genuinely like the SNPs policies and principles (besides independence) and want the SNP to represent them not in holyrood, but in Westminster.

I'm suggesting that if they fail to achieve their raison d'être, (Scottish independence) after not one but TWO referendums, then they should abandon that raison d'être in favour of a new one: Rebranding themselves as Labours spiritual successor not just in Scotland but in England and wales too , and seeking to become a British party, not just a Scottish one.

That is a thing. There's a lot of people who vote SNP in Scotland (especially because of the transferable vote thing), who don't want Scottish independence but are very supportive of their local SNP candidates.

Speaking generally and inspecifically.

People don't vote Tory, because they're rich scumbag lawyers and toffs from old money.
People don't vote Labour, because they're rich scumbag pawns of union bosses that have bribed their way to power.
People don't vote lib-dem because their airie fairy dreamer types who don't know what real life actually is like.

Meanwhile, the SNP guy, is the guy you see walking his dog down the park, who always stops for a chat, who is dealing with the same problems you are, whose kid is just out of drug rehab and wants to do right by their community.

And that's what they vote for, potentially irrespective of their opinions on independence or not.