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Made in us
Giggling Nurgling




USA

No, 40K is not dying. It is a global game with one of the biggest "footprints" in tabletop gaming, and in sci-fi/fantasy in general. GW is also a company with relatively open finances, so it's not going to be a secret if they start tanking badly...which they are not. 40K, along with the tabletop industry in general, was hurt badly over the last decade or so by the financial crisis, and shift to video and mobile gaming. That trend seems to be reversing though, as casual board gaming in increasing in popularity, along with several successful new games being launched recently (X-Wing, Dropzone Commander, etc). Gaming is very much a "rising tide lifts all boats" industry, so new players means more opportunity for GW.

Are there problems with the game? Yes. GW does not have a strong vision for what the game is going to look like now that the internet drives the meta and the market. That's a big part of why the rules are a sprawling mess, with players trying to juggle rulebooks, codexes, supplements, and datasheets to build armies. The creep of unit power and quantity into the game is a function of more and more product being released into the game space, with that product never really leaving (a 10 year old SM model is just as playable as a new one, so GW has to do something to drive sales). 40K has been dethroned as the top selling tabletop game, and will have to contend with the Disney marketing machine behind both X-Wing and (Marvel) Heroclix as competition.

There is also a lot of reason for optimism. The industry is rebounding. More importantly, competition in a growing industry is forcing GW to respect its players instead of treating them like a captive resource. GW is finally showing signs of listening to the player base and interacting on our terms. The game has never been bigger in terms of ways to play and factions. 40K is probably still second to only MTG in terms of widely available competitive play. 30K has opened up an entire new area of the game and still has lots of room to grow.

So if you want to play, play. Yes, there is a big learning and cost curve to be able to participate in 1850-2000 point tournament games, but it's much easier to get started with a group of friends or LGS. It also greatly depends on your interest in the hobby side. If you want to open packages and play, X-Wing, MTG, or Heroclix does that better. If you want to create and personalize your own army to carry around, 40K is still where it's at.

   
Made in us
Quick-fingered Warlord Moderatus




Much like Kid Kyoto, my original gaming group and I declared the inevitable demise of 40k when they switched from RT to 2nd Ed. I mean come ON! There's no way the game could survive that! lol Seriously, we thought that ...

Anyway, I keep hearing that the Table top industry is growing. Then I hear that it's not. Then I see numbers that support both sides equally. I mean yeah, the industry is definitely "growing" in terms of the number of companies. That said, how many of those companies are actually turning a profit? How many fire out one Kickstarter and die? Who knows. Here's what we do know as facts:

1. There has never been a time when 40K was up against so many challengers (whether you consider them all real "competition" or not is debatable, but the range of options we have is not)

2. While there are more choices, the range of "viable" choices is still fairly small. By viable I mean a game you are likely to find healthy support for at almost any store. X-wing, 40K and, to a lesser extent, Warmahordes are still the big players with a healthy gap between them and the rest of the pack.

3. As Vaktathi mentioned - Since its inception, there has never been a time when 40K wasn't #1. Until now. X-wing has taken the top slot.

4. GW as a company has never been one to admit to mistakes. Tacitly or otherwise. In the past, when they've made mistakes, they've just forced those mistakes even harder as if being "right" was more important than being "successful". They've now switched leadership and done an about face on a lot of unpopular policies. Which, to me, is about as close as they will ever come to saying "yeah, ok, we botched that"

5. It is increasingly difficult to quickly and easily introduce a new player to the game. I'm looking at just the rules here and not even looking at cost. One of the reasons they pruned 2nd ed so severely was due to rules sprawl. There were "official" rules everywhere. White Dwarfs, supplements, codexes, Dark Millennium, etc, etc. I would argue that 7th has at least equaled that if it hasn't surpassed that. I have watched people come to games with the BRB, three codexes, a supplement, multiple data slates, and two WD articles. Very few potential players see that and get excited about it ...


So all that being said, it seems like GW is really going through something that companies in more mature (I'm not sure "mature" is the exact right word but it's the closest I can get to what I mean) industries go through all the time. They are seeing legitimate competition for the first time in a while (point #1 above), but at the same time, there's not enough of that to really damage them (point #2) YET. They can certainly see they need to get moving and really figure out where they currently fit in regards to their competition (point 3), and they appear willing to change directions and make adjustments in regards to that (point 4). As far as the future of the game? Point 5 illustrates one of the things I consider a major concern going forward. You can site cost, but I've found that I can help a new player get past sticker shock by showing them how they can find things on Ebay or at online discount sellers or even in our store's bitz box. Eventually, they end up not worrying about the cost and buying new form GW or the LGS once they decide they like it. What I can't do is get someone over the awe of so many scattered rules sources. There's literally no way around that.

So with all that together, my( totally amateur) take on it is that 40K is NOT dying. The industry is starting to go through some dis[placement due to there being some real competition for the fist time in a long time. This competition has caused GW's mistakes to really come to the fore and is forcing them to take a hard look at where they are and where they're going. They are at a tipping point IMO. How they respond to all of this will be the key. It will likely be another year or two before we're really able to tell. So no, I don't think it's dying yet. For the first time in a long time though, I can see the potential for it. Time will tell.

Edit: I just googled ablutions and apparently it does not including dropping a duece. I should have looked it up early sorry for any confusion. - Baldsmug

Psiensis on the "good old days":
"Kids these days...
... I invented the 6th Ed meta back in 3rd ed.
Wait, what were we talking about again? Did I ever tell you about the time I gave you five bees for a quarter? That's what you'd say in those days, "give me five bees for a quarter", is what you'd say in those days. And you'd go down to the D&D shop, with an onion in your belt, 'cause that was the style of the time. So there I was in the D&D shop..." 
   
Made in us
Sneaky Lictor





Oakland, CA

Anyone who thinks GW isn't a sinking ship is in denial. I only come around here every now and then to see if GW has decided to stop killing themselves as I dumped all my GW stuff years ago, but wish it were worth it again. Nope.

For all the people parroting the "people have been saying it for years" crap, do not enter into any long term endeavours. Long slow and obvious deaths that could have been avoided are often what kills businesses, marriages, etc.


"To crush your opponents, see their figures removed from the table and to hear the lamentations of TFG." -Zathras 
   
Made in us
Dakka Veteran





GW has It Will Not Die or This Company Will Not Sink and each time they license out their IP to failure games GW has Feel No Financial Pain.

When GW fail to meet their projected goals, they have Deny The Witch Pro forma statement.

Their CEO and board members have And They Shall Know No Fiscal responsiblity.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/08/30 16:12:12


In the Grimdark future of DerpHammer40k, there are only dank memes! 
   
Made in us
Sneaky Lictor





Oakland, CA

 CadianGateTroll wrote:
GW has It Will Not Die or This Company Will Not Sink and each time they license out their IP to failure games GW has Feel No Financial Pain.

When GW fail to meet their projected goals, they have Deny The Witch Pro forma statement.

Their CEO and board members have And They Shall Know No Fiscal responsiblity.



"To crush your opponents, see their figures removed from the table and to hear the lamentations of TFG." -Zathras 
   
Made in gb
Fixture of Dakka




 Korinov wrote:
pm713 wrote:
They seem to be toning down price now. Or at least they're starting to.


Kharn says hi.

Basically every single new kit says hi.

Like the discount boxes and characters starting to go down in price slightly.

tremere47-fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, hate, leads to triple riptide spam  
   
Made in es
Pulsating Possessed Chaos Marine





pm713 wrote:
 Korinov wrote:
pm713 wrote:
They seem to be toning down price now. Or at least they're starting to.


Kharn says hi.

Basically every single new kit says hi.

Like the discount boxes and characters starting to go down in price slightly.


The discounted boxes are mostly stuff with some years on its back. Characters going down in price slightly? Are you joking? New Kharn model is going to be €28. A single plastic infantry model, with no terminator armor as an excuse.

Progress is like a herd of pigs: everybody is interested in the produced benefits, but nobody wants to deal with all the resulting gak.

GW customers deserve every bit of outrageous princing they get. 
   
Made in gb
Storm Trooper with Maglight





Nottingham UK

 Korinov wrote:
pm713 wrote:
 Korinov wrote:
pm713 wrote:
They seem to be toning down price now. Or at least they're starting to.


Kharn says hi.

Basically every single new kit says hi.

Like the discount boxes and characters starting to go down in price slightly.


The discounted boxes are mostly stuff with some years on its back. Characters going down in price slightly? Are you joking? New Kharn model is going to be €28. A single plastic infantry model, with no terminator armor as an excuse.


yeah seeing plastic characters... on sprues costing so much.... just hurts my soul.

2000
1500

Astral Miliwhat? You're in the Guard son!  
   
Made in us
Imperial Guard Landspeeder Pilot




On moon miranda.

GW's plastic characters cost more than FW's resin equivalents

IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.

New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights!
The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.  
   
Made in us
Gargantuan Gargant





New Bedford, MA USA

 Vaktathi wrote:
GW's plastic characters cost more than FW's resin equivalents


GW's plastic characters take a much more sizable initial investment to produce the molds than Forge Worlds' resin equivalents.


   
Made in us
Gun Mage





And yet somehow the Malifaux people can make plastic characters a lot cheaper despite their probably smaller production runs. It's just GW gouging.
   
Made in us
Imperial Guard Landspeeder Pilot




On moon miranda.

 adamsouza wrote:
 Vaktathi wrote:
GW's plastic characters cost more than FW's resin equivalents


GW's plastic characters take a much more sizable initial investment to produce the molds than Forge Worlds' resin equivalents.

I do understand that, but as a consumer that means squat all to me particularly when plastic has a dramatically cheaper variable cost, and is generally seen as a lower quality material than resin or metal (particularly for fine detail, plastic can't do certain things like undercuts and edges get "stretchy" like videogame textures due to the nature of the geometry involved with plastics) which GW abandoned in favor of plastic.

The cry for plastic for years was to reduce the price, see the current Sisters of Battle thread. Then when GW does move everything to plastic and the prices skyrocket people just point to the mold cost and forget that the whole point for the consumer was to make it cheaper.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/08/30 23:58:19


IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.

New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights!
The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.  
   
Made in us
The Daemon Possessing Fulgrim's Body





Devon, UK

 adamsouza wrote:
 Vaktathi wrote:
GW's plastic characters cost more than FW's resin equivalents


GW's plastic characters take a much more sizable initial investment to produce the molds than Forge Worlds' resin equivalents.



And Forge World's molds require much higher running costs than GW's plastic equivalents.

Perhaps that sizeable investment dictating a retail price that people who may otherwise buy a model are deciding not to suggests it isn't the right process?

We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark

The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.

The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox

Ask me about
Barnstaple Slayers Club 
   
Made in us
Regular Dakkanaut




 adamsouza wrote:
 Vaktathi wrote:
GW's plastic characters cost more than FW's resin equivalents


GW's plastic characters take a much more sizable initial investment to produce the molds than Forge Worlds' resin equivalents.



I don't give a feth and neither should you.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/08/31 04:09:22


 
   
Made in ca
Fireknife Shas'el






Mitochondria wrote:
 adamsouza wrote:
 Vaktathi wrote:
GW's plastic characters cost more than FW's resin equivalents


GW's plastic characters take a much more sizable initial investment to produce the molds than Forge Worlds' resin equivalents.



I don't give a feth and neither should you.


I can't fathom why GW bothers casting unique characters in plastic - the economics of it are just plain stupid.

Things like the Space Marine commander sprue are a good idea and probably should be expanded to Chaplains and Librarians (like maybe a librarian that actually wears a helmet?), but are people so scared of resin/metal that they must have unique characters in plastic?


   
Made in us
Fixture of Dakka





Los Angeles

Anecdotal from California, USA:

More LocalGStores are popping up all over California, with ITC tourneys as featured, monthly events in most.

My local GS consistently has 30+ players, often 40+ player monthly RTTs, all year, 2016. Our Hammer of Wrath GT went to 56. More than last year.

LVO and BAO pack in more, and sell out every year, 150+ ( 250+ ! )dudes and a few dudettes.

If there's a product sales decline, maybe it is saturation. As a 12 year 40k veteran, *I* don't buy a whole lot anymore. I own at least 2.5k of Tau, 6k of DeathWing (lotsa termies from Space Hulk), 4k of Eldar, 2k+ CSM & daemons, and so many SM that there are sprues with legs and torsos with little hope of being used, for the 4k+ of SM I could field.

Dying? Not here. Definitely alive and thriving in Calif.

"You can bring any cheesy unit you want. If you lose. Casey taught me that." -Tim S.

"I'm gonna follow Casey; he knows where the beer's at!" -Blackmoor, BAO 2013

Quitting Daemon Princes, Bob and Fred - a 40k webcomic 
   
Made in ca
Enigmatic Chaos Sorcerer





British Columbia

To be fair. California and the Bay Area in particular seems to be something of a 40k Mecca of late.

 BlaxicanX wrote:
A young business man named Tom Kirby, who was a pupil of mine until he turned greedy, helped the capitalists hunt down and destroy the wargamers. He betrayed and murdered Games Workshop.


 
   
Made in us
Terminator with Assault Cannon





Korinov wrote:New Kharn model is going to be €28.


What's that in American?

That's like 50 USD, right?

That's insane. Average IC costs seem to have been in the $20 range.
   
Made in in
[MOD]
Otiose in a Niche






Hyderabad, India

 adamsouza wrote:
 Vaktathi wrote:
GW's plastic characters cost more than FW's resin equivalents


GW's plastic characters take a much more sizable initial investment to produce the molds than Forge Worlds' resin equivalents.



So you're saying doing them in plastic might not have been such a great idea?

Huge outlays for models people will at most buy one of doesn't seem an inspired plan.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Traditio wrote:
Korinov wrote:New Kharn model is going to be €28.


What's that in American?

That's like 50 USD, right?

That's insane. Average IC costs seem to have been in the $20 range.


$31.

You might have been thinking about pounds not Euros.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/08/31 06:55:53


 
   
Made in ca
Commander of the Mysterious 2nd Legion





one thing X-wing has going for it is the assmbled painted minis. I suspect even if it had the same cost to get into, X-wing would attract a class of player 40k didn't

Opinions are not facts please don't confuse the two 
   
Made in gb
Master Engineer with a Brace of Pistols






I'd say that 40k has definitely shrunk. But GW seem to be making the right steps towards turning it around. It'll take a while to fix but if this trend continues they'll be alright.

Also, people keep saying that AoS is a disaster but in my area it's now completely taken over the show. It's all anyone ever plays, and it's all I've brought for the past year. Got me a nice blood bound army going here.
   
Made in us
Imperial Guard Landspeeder Pilot




On moon miranda.

 Brothererekose wrote:
Anecdotal from California, USA:

More LocalGStores are popping up all over California, with ITC tourneys as featured, monthly events in most.

My local GS consistently has 30+ players, often 40+ player monthly RTTs, all year, 2016. Our Hammer of Wrath GT went to 56. More than last year.

LVO and BAO pack in more, and sell out every year, 150+ ( 250+ ! )dudes and a few dudettes.

If there's a product sales decline, maybe it is saturation. As a 12 year 40k veteran, *I* don't buy a whole lot anymore. I own at least 2.5k of Tau, 6k of DeathWing (lotsa termies from Space Hulk), 4k of Eldar, 2k+ CSM & daemons, and so many SM that there are sprues with legs and torsos with little hope of being used, for the 4k+ of SM I could field.

Dying? Not here. Definitely alive and thriving in Calif.
LA always seemed pretty hot, but San Diego seemed very subdued last time I was there a couple months ago.

IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.

New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights!
The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.  
   
Made in us
Member of a Lodge? I Can't Say




'Murica! (again)

 Eldarain wrote:
To be fair. California and the Bay Area in particular seems to be something of a 40k Mecca of late.


I blame Carl Tutle, he must be masterminding this . Hi Carl, if you're seeing this.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Khârn is $35 USD, right?

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/08/31 16:16:12


co-host weekly wargaming podcast Combat Phase
on iTunes or www.combatphase.com
 
   
Made in us
Fresh-Faced New User




No. We need a new fresh sexy add campaign.

 
   
Made in us
Imperial Guard Landspeeder Pilot




On moon miranda.

 VeteranNoob wrote:

Khârn is $35 USD, right?
O_o

It was just a few years ago that $35 would get you a metal Daemon Prince...or 3 metal Kharne's.

IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.

New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights!
The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.  
   
Made in us
Gargantuan Gargant





New Bedford, MA USA

Doing anything in plastic requires a big up front cost, then minimal labor and production costs to make a ton of them.

Making figures in resin requires a smaller up front cost, but lots more labor and much slower production time, over the life of the model.

GW's buissiness model has been acknowledged to make back their initial investment on thier models during the products release.

If GW can make a ton of figures, with minimal labor and materials costs in plastic, and then order more for peanuts when they need them, while making back their money during the release, it is a better buissiness model to do that instead of having a small horde of guys in a basement casting resin/metal models full time. If it wasn't more profitable to do them in plastic, then they wouldn't do so.

So you're saying doing them in plastic might not have been such a great idea?

Huge outlays for models people will at most buy one of doesn't seem an inspired plan.


Exactly the opposite of what your suggesting.

Model sales volume esures that the initial production cost of plastic is covered, during the release. All production costs after the release are minimal, when done in plastic.

Models in resin have a lower up front cost, which will be covered during release, but have a much higher cost to produce afterwards.

Resin models produced after the initial release are less profitable than plastic models. Since the production costs of either resin or plastic are covered during the initial release it is much more profitable over time to produce them in plastic.




   
Made in pa
Regular Dakkanaut




Panama

I dont think the price will stop players to get their minis. GW minis have a lot of extra parts in the sprues other companies dont offer. The main problem with GW is the rules. Secondary problem, they need to lower prices a little more and make good bundles.

Keep up the fight!  
   
Made in us
Imperial Guard Landspeeder Pilot




On moon miranda.

And as a consumer, the expectation is that plastic models will be cheaper as they produce inferior detail to resin or metal. When they are 2 or 3 times the cost of the resin or metal models, thats a problem. This is reflecting in GW's declining revenue and market share trend.

I own tons of older metal models that I picked up at $10 or $12 that id just buy on a whim because they were cool. At $20, $26, or $35 thats simply out of the question. They're exceeding their niche upscale premium house with those street prices.

Also, when it cimes to GW decision-making, assuming that something must be profitable just because they did it has a long history of being proven false. This is the same company that *borrowed* money to pay dividends.
.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/08/31 16:53:28


IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.

New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights!
The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.  
   
Made in us
Gargantuan Gargant





New Bedford, MA USA

 Vaktathi wrote:
And as a consumer, the expectation is that plastic models will be cheaper as they produce inferior detail to resin or metal. When they are 2 or 3 times the cost of the resin or metal models, thats a problem.


Your statements reflect your personal mind set. The expectation that plastic will be inferior to metal or resin is an expectation from 20 years ago. Your estimates of cost are years out of date as well. One only has to look at what Forgeworld charges for models for what GW thinks resin models should cost.

This is reflecting in GW's declining revenue and market share trend.
Correlation does not equal causation, you're assuming that.

X-Wing has displaced 40K as the number one miniatures game. It's simpler, pre-painted, and allows one to play with minimal effort.
GW has also never had as many miniatures companies to compete with as they do now. Both Malifuax and Infinity has siphoned away from GW's potential client base.

I own tons of older metal models that I picked up at $10 or $12 that id just buy on a whim because they were cool. At $20, $26, or $35 thats simply out of the question.


That's you comparing the price of models you picked up more than a decade ago to current prices, and then applying your personal preferences about what is and is not justifyable to spend on toy soldiers.

Also, when it cimes to GW decision-making, assuming that something must be profitable just because they did it has a long history of being proven false. This is the same company that *borrowed* money to pay dividends.


Assuming that everything GW is wrong all the time, is equally foolish. Good thing neither of us did either of those things.

   
Made in fr
Boom! Leman Russ Commander





France

Warhammer 40k is not dying since its universe still attracts. As it's been previously said, the fact that people keep buying thanks to eBay, amazon and so on proves both that the interest for the game lives on, and that 40k messed it up enough to almost systematicly drive the customers away from the company in itself. So i doubt 40k is dead or dying (in agony however). GW has a lot more to care about its health as a firm, but 40k needs not fear that much as a game and miniature range.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/08/31 17:12:08


40k: Necrons/Imperial Guard/ Space marines
Bolt Action: Germany/ USA
Project Z.

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