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2017/04/08 18:10:18
Subject: Re:Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
My GW sold all 6 copies immediately. Line out front before it opened and one guy had driven like 6 hours to get one and missed out. Luckily I got my copy from preorder.
The prices on ebay are outrageous. The most annoying part of limited release like this and 3rd edition Space Hulk is there's copies just sitting around unused with people trying to get double or triple the retail price. Luckily the digital rules should limit the secondary markups somewhat.
My GW manager gave me the promo kit stuff since he couldn't even demo the game. Tempted to toss it up for sale so someone can get some tokens if they missed getting a box.
You can never beat your first time. The second generation is shinier, stronger, faster and superior in every regard save one, and it's an unfair criticism to level, but it simply can't be as original. - Andy Chambers, on the evolution of Games Workshop games
2017/04/08 18:51:47
Subject: Re:Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
SeanDrake wrote: The main thing I see is that while the new dark lord is an improvement over Kirby he is still an accountant and as such will have a mind set to reflect that.
Accountants hate risk and only see the big picture in relation to figures. If he sees 10k copies made and sold and a nice fat 0 left in inventory he is happy, the fact that retailers are annoyed after getting fluffed at gamma and that only a small amount of potential customers got the product will not even register.
You say that as if it's not the way almost every single firm in the country is run.
And it's not just accountants, it's anyone with half a brain.
No. Selling out of a product without the ability to fulfill future orders, in the business world is generally regarded as a failure. Your accountants maybe happy, but they're happy when money spent equals money earned. Investors want as much money earned as possible and a failure to meet demand is a failure to optimize profits and shareholder value.
When trying to meet demand based on collected data the business people should generate an optimization curve to dictate production. In doing so a properly managed and forecasted demand should over estimate ideally between 3-5% more than what's "needed" because after a point the price of those extra so many units should become negligible. Consider GW produced the box and sold at msrp for $130, or $80 wholesale... following general practices only 1/3 of that $80 is material cost, some percentage is R&D and tooling, and some is overhead, the remainder becomes profit. If GW plans this initially as a 20k unit production by the time you produce that last box all your R&D, tooling, and a percentage of overhead are completely absorbed. So the profit of every box beyond 20k, is doubled; instead of profiting $27, they're profiting almost $54 a box... at that level any company should be willing to absorb a prospect where only 1-in-3 of that manufactured overage has to be sold. Particularly with this sort of game, that overage risk is significantly mitigated as the unsold boxsets can be broken up and sold in those smaller individual kits or even scrapped with the plastic being ground and turned to new sprues, where the cost of the paper goods are absorbed by the higher margins of those smaller kits.
While there might be an opportunity cost in having assets tied up in extra inventory, not having that overage costs you the opportunity for market share growth. Without overage you will never grow the customer base.
Let's also point out that one of GWs failings is that IF they are soooooo risk adverse they should seriously consider running "pre-orders" as true pre-orders, where it pre-ordered while in production and used to establish what volume of product is necessary. What GW does is really pre-selling and allocating.
Selling out is good, it's how you manage that fortunate situation that governs whether or not is is a success. Now if as I am lead to believe there is distribution stock that is to be made available then they can leverage what will already been seen as a successful release into a great one. It's only day 1 of release, let's see what happens in the new week before declaring ruination and disaster.
"What is the purpose of business? -To provide a service that optimizes shareholder wealth." Under that definition the two criteria of a business' success is making the greatest profit and whether it provides a desired service.
Selling out is failure. The statistical likelihood of producing exactly the number to satisfy the market is infinitesimally small, and in a completely efficient sales system that infinitesimally small chance is the only scenario where selling out is a positive outcome. Selling out means you did not make enough. It means you failed to fully provide for a desired service. There was money that you would have made for your shareholders that you failed to earn.
Selling out is not good particularly for a game. Selling out means you're unable to capitalize on popularity of a product to grow market share. Every product has a life cycle and selling out stunts the growth and longevity of the customer and player base. I literally just left a Killteam gaming group where only one out of the seven regulars who wanted a copy was able to get a copy.
We can talk about how maybe their "estimates," which I still think we're just an arbitrary number, was reasonable, but that just means the guy shouldn't be fired. This is a revenue loss. Someone's poor choice cost them sales, sales that are more profitable than these initial batches.
This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2017/04/08 19:47:23
2017/04/08 19:44:29
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
Not sure what happened but they seem to have shipped all the stock to random places in the US and Canada, as if what people are saying is true(I don't see any reason it would not be) then some individual stores got more than my entire region(which includes 3 GW's and half a dozen lfgs.
Your last point is especially laughable and comical, because not only the 7th ed Valkyrie shown dumber things (like being able to throw the troopers without parachutes out of its hatches, no harm done) - Irbis
2017/04/08 20:06:02
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
The fluff is like ketchup and mustard on a burger. Yes it's desirable, yes it makes things better, but no it doesn't fundamentally change what you're eating and no you shouldn't just drown the whole meal in it.
2017/04/08 20:10:41
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
davou wrote: eh, I dunno what industry you work in, but I've never worked anywhere where selling out was considered a failure.
specially in those industries were selling out means that a customer won't buy anything again
Got any examples? Because this is an industry where people will buy gak, just for the sake of having two or three extras that they can display rather than actually use, let alone need.
If gw was providing a hospital with their supply of insulin, then maybe I'd buy into this crap argument... But they are selling a board game, planned for its release to be profitable, and achieved that goal rather than in the time-line they expected, did it over night. THEN to top it all of, they've had nearly the entire peripheral industry talking about nothing but it for the last week straight.
anyone suggesting that they've somehow 'failed' is talking out of their ass.
The fluff is like ketchup and mustard on a burger. Yes it's desirable, yes it makes things better, but no it doesn't fundamentally change what you're eating and no you shouldn't just drown the whole meal in it.
2017/04/08 20:17:08
Subject: Re:Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
Just asking just in case one of you knows,Do the buildings have rules or stats? like the galvanic magnavent does it have toughness like a munitorum armored container,or special rules grant armor saves,Effect Ballistic skill with targeters or grant extra promethium barrels/caches.
raw material industry
if you cannot fulfill the orders or put material on the market that outsell in the first run, costumers are searching either for another company or another raw material
there is always an alternative
so for a board game:
if people cannot get the rules they won't buy it later but get it either somewhere else or search for alternative rules
next step is that they won't buy the terrain or models because they are angry and they can get similar stuff from a different company
everyone that just wanted the rules but did not get them won't buy them in 3 months
so that money is lost
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/08 20:30:45
Harry, bring this ring to Narnia or the Sith will take the Enterprise
2017/04/08 20:37:17
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
From a businessman... the board game market is different folks. Gw has several lines, shadow war (a specialist game... not a staple line) will not make or break the brand.
Those saying selling out is bad... that's just anger speaking. That's like saying selling out of gorechosen will ruin gw, make them lose thousands of customers, and they will go bankrupt - sounds ridiculous doesn't it? They made a print run and had projected the profit they would make from it. They sold out and made profit. Sure their profit could have been bigger if they had made more, but if it hadn't sold well they could be losing money on stock. They don't have stock sitting around now which is good for business (should be fluid, stock in and out right away).
So a few folks got upset. They can buy pdf rules later to use their existing models. Anyone can buy the scenery. Their main games are 40k and aos anyway. Sorry but selling out sw:a isn't going to ruin gw folks, even if a handfull walk away upset.
IN ALAE MORTIS... On the wings of Death!!
2017/04/08 20:38:52
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
davou wrote: eh, I dunno what industry you work in, but I've never worked anywhere where selling out was considered a failure.
Where have you worked? Because leaving money on the table is definitely a failure for a business.
There's a world of difference selling out of the chicken, meaning a few customers have to order the fish, and radically underestimating demand to the point that a significant percentage of your customers are unable to make a purchase to the point where it seems to generate ill will in your consumer base.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
davou wrote: eh, I dunno what industry you work in, but I've never worked anywhere where selling out was considered a failure.
Where have you worked? Because leaving money on the table is definitely a failure for a business.
There's a world of difference selling out of the chicken, meaning a few customers have to order the fish, and radically underestimating demand to the point that a significant percentage of your customers are unable to make a purchase to the point where it seems to generate ill will in your consumer base.
This is only true if not making the absolute maximum profit on something is a failure.
This is a degree of success, it's not the success it could be if they had projected better, but it's still a success.
How many customers will GW have actually lost once the toys are back in the pram? A handful?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/08 20:46:55
2017/04/08 20:46:39
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
raw material industry
if you cannot fulfill the orders or put material on the market that outsell in the first run, costumers are searching either for another company or another raw material
That's demonstrably false; both the rare earths market and the corn/syrup industries have been through shakeups of supply being outstripped by demand in the last decade, and every major player in that industry is still happily selling along after they've been unable or unwilling to sell. Rare earths when china imposed quotes on export, and Corn when the US goverment subsidized the production of corn based ethanol and farmers switched from cattle feed to ethanol producing corns. In both those cases, industries still happily deal with those suppliers who previously couldn't provide.
You're acting like GW offered futures in the game, and then failed to deliver on the contracts. As long as a supplier does not make a contract to sell and renege on it, selling out isn't bad in any way. Further in this case, the sellout has generated MASSIVE marketing hype and brand awareness.
there is always an alternative
so for a board game:
if people cannot get the rules they won't buy it later but get it either somewhere else or search for alternative rules
next step is that they won't buy the terrain or models because they are angry and they can get similar stuff from a different company
everyone that just wanted the rules but did not get them won't buy them in 3 months
so that money is lost.
Again, this is not how the GW fanbase works... People will buy a huge amount of stupid crap from GW
So no, people won't boycot GW for selling out of a product... And further, money isnt lost becayse people will refuse to buy the rules in three months, because THEY ALREADY MADE ALL THE MONEY THEY SET OUT TO MAKE..... If they had planned for this to span three months, and they finished their supplies in under ten minutes, they've got NOTHING at all to believe they've failed on.
The fluff is like ketchup and mustard on a burger. Yes it's desirable, yes it makes things better, but no it doesn't fundamentally change what you're eating and no you shouldn't just drown the whole meal in it.
2017/04/08 21:10:47
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
SeanDrake wrote: Not sure what happened but they seem to have shipped all the stock to random places in the US and Canada, as if what people are saying is true(I don't see any reason it would not be) then some individual stores got more than my entire region(which includes 3 GW's and half a dozen lfgs.
I'm sure it has to do with how much the stores are selling in general. If FLGS #1 moves a ton of product for GW, they are probably going to send them more than they might send to a tiny GW store in the same region. I'm sure that's what happened in my area. We have a massive FLGS, from what I've heard one of the biggest in the US, and I'm sure that they got a ton more than the actual GW store that got 6 total.
The sales reps for GW know what will move in their area and probably pull strings to make sure they get more allocation than areas that probably won't move as much. Now with this release it probably would have sold out anywhere, but they didn't know that ahead of time when they allocate the shipments.
You can never beat your first time. The second generation is shinier, stronger, faster and superior in every regard save one, and it's an unfair criticism to level, but it simply can't be as original. - Andy Chambers, on the evolution of Games Workshop games
2017/04/08 21:11:24
Subject: Re:Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
As far as I am concerned, selling out is good, but selling out when you could have made twice or three times as much or more, and still sold out, is not.
Especially when you have no means of getting those sales back.
2017/04/08 21:14:47
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
if GW wants, they could have already put a digital rulebook in their shop.
there is a digital copy available for the printing company, to convert it to an ebook of any kind takes an hour (or just minutes if you skip to make an index, search etc)
so it could have been online today
Yes, and everyone would have asked what al those funky weird colours lines were doing on the white space outside the borders.
The PDF that went to the printers is not a version you want on your iPad. A whole other version will have to be generated for downloading without proofing marks. And if we're really fantasizing, maybe they'll place the 60 pages of additional Kill Teams back in the main book. I don't even care about lack of page numbers...
i!
2017/04/08 21:15:40
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
I don't know if this is common, but not getting a copy means I won't be buying the half a table worth of terrain I was planning on getting, including stuff like the reactor and pipelines to hook up to it. Why? Because I hate paying more than other people for the same thing. Seeing the prices on the separate terrain and adding it up with the cost of a rule book, not to mention I was actually looking forward to getting scouts and orks, and suddenly buying separately looks like an incredibly bad deal. And I don't do bad deals, ever. So this has curbed my GW spending heavily for quite a while because of the cascading effect of not getting a box. And since no one else at the club got a copy either that means even more potential spending gone since we can't play it, and I'm too sour to be likely to want to start one when the rules are released.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/08 21:18:32
2017/04/08 21:17:46
Subject: Re:Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
GW won't let people play WHFB in stores any more because it's a game that is no longer available. A bit contradictory that they're running SW:A campaigns in store. Obviously a game that is no longer available.
Currently most played: Silent Death, Mars Code Aurora, Battletech, Warcrow and Infinity.
2017/04/08 21:19:25
Subject: Re:Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
Rayvon wrote: As far as I am concerned, selling out is good, but selling out when you could have made twice or three times as much or more, and still sold out, is not.
Especially when you have no means of getting those sales back.
QFT. In any publicly owned business, maximizing shareholder wealth is paramount. Another poster above said the same. While perhaps not a failure, per se, this can absolutely be considered a squandered opportunity.
2017/04/08 21:26:00
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
davou wrote: eh, I dunno what industry you work in, but I've never worked anywhere where selling out was considered a failure.
Where have you worked? Because leaving money on the table is definitely a failure for a business.
There's a world of difference selling out of the chicken, meaning a few customers have to order the fish, and radically underestimating demand to the point that a significant percentage of your customers are unable to make a purchase to the point where it seems to generate ill will in your consumer base.
This is only true if not making the absolute maximum profit on something is a failure.
This is a degree of success, it's not the success it could be if they had projected better, but it's still a success.
How many customers will GW have actually lost once the toys are back in the pram? A handful?
Who's to say?
Who's to say how many they'd lost because of Chapterhouse, or other pointless litigation? Who's to say how many they lost each time an army was passed over for update, or received a poor one? Or each time a price increase bit a little further into someone's hobby budget?
These things are cumulative, and each time one can respond with "yeah, but how many did we really lose?" until it's 5 or 10 years later and your revenue is on a collision course with your operating costs and your profit is heading down the toilet.
But yes, as a one off, it will just be the hundreds, possibly thousands, of people who didn't get to give GW their £80 this weekend who may find something non-GW to spend it on before given another opportunity.
As for
This is a degree of success
That's just arguing semantics. Is selling enough to cover production costs and make a small profit a 'success' or is leaving potentially as many people unable to buy the product as are able to a 'failure?'
Tomayto tomato.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/08 21:34:06
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Calling a succes selling out a product when there is a lot of angry customers who aren't able to purchase it, shows an alarming lack of business sense.
Is it a total failure that endangers the survival of GW? Obviously not. But just for the amount of ill will and bad publicity that this has generarted, it is far from a success. At least, lest hope that this force GW to change some of its pratices, and that they start to do that weird arcane thing that is market research.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/08 21:35:01
lost and damned log
http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/519978.page#6525039
2017/04/08 21:45:14
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
Those saying selling out is bad... that's just anger speaking. That's like saying selling out of gorechosen will ruin gw, make them lose thousands of customers, and they will go bankrupt - sounds ridiculous doesn't it?
Yes, it sounds ridiculous. It's also not what anyone is saying.
People are saying that selling out means missed sales, not that the company will collapse as a result of this one missed opportunity.
2017/04/08 21:54:26
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
Missed sales when you made all the money that you set out to make is much healthier for a company than unsold product sitting on shelves because you decided to make tons of it 'just in case'.
Not like they wont be making more boxed games and selling them in the future; and I'm sure they will adjust quantity on the next one to take a bit more advantage of the obvious appeal.... But Im sure they'd be happy if every one of their next 'projects' sells out in minutes.
The fluff is like ketchup and mustard on a burger. Yes it's desirable, yes it makes things better, but no it doesn't fundamentally change what you're eating and no you shouldn't just drown the whole meal in it.
2017/04/08 22:02:45
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
Those saying selling out is bad... that's just anger speaking. That's like saying selling out of gorechosen will ruin gw, make them lose thousands of customers, and they will go bankrupt - sounds ridiculous doesn't it?
Yes, it sounds ridiculous. It's also not what anyone is saying.
People are saying that selling out means missed sales, not that the company will collapse as a result of this one missed opportunity.
Yep, Classic strawman argument
lost and damned log
http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/519978.page#6525039
2017/04/08 22:03:56
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
davou wrote: Missed sales when you made all the money that you set out to make is much healthier for a company than unsold product sitting on shelves because you decided to make tons of it 'just in case'..
No, neither of these things are healthy. Also, while businesses may have sales targets, no business will "make the money it sets out to make" and self limit so it doesn't make any more, assuming the demand is there.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
davou wrote: Missed sales when you made all the money that you set out to make is much healthier for a company than unsold product sitting on shelves because you decided to make tons of it 'just in case'.
Not like they wont be making more boxed games and selling them in the future; and I'm sure they will adjust quantity on the next one to take a bit more advantage of the obvious appeal.... But Im sure they'd be happy if every one of their next 'projects' sells out in minutes.
he, not really. It depends on how much unsold product you are left with, and on how much more product you could have sold. For example, only doing 1000 copies of a product when there was 5000 persons who were willing to buy it, is a lot more unhealthier than doing 5500 copies, cause while it is true that you're stuck with 500 copies, the increase in sales would without a doubt compensate for that (unless your unitary profit is very very low, but it is doubtfull it is the case here)
lost and damned log
http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/519978.page#6525039
