Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:
No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
Times and dates in your local timezone.
Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.
If you are already a member then feel free to login now.
2017/04/08 13:44:07
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
aka_mythos wrote:I don't think it's a case of "underestimating"... I don't think they made an estimate at all. I think they said we're only making "X" amount of kits without any regard to potential demand. They clearly aren't in any sort of mindset to "sell as many as we can."
Of course they made an estimate. You don't bring a product to market without looking at how other products similar to it have sold. And you certainly don't engage in something as capital intensive as the design and tooling for a plastic kit without thinking about how many you have to sell to make your investment back and maintain needed margins.
GW hasn't been in "sell as many as we can" mode for well over a decade. They've switched their business model to be about less volume sold at a higher margin.
The end result is that they got all their tooling costs covered and made 100% of their expected initial launch sales revenue for their new terrain kits. Now if they want to put the rules up as a epub for $20, they'll make some more money there and then they'll also sell some normal 40k kits and some more of the new terrain kits at the lower marginal cost of producing the sprues and boxes.
Could they have made more money by either increasing the price or increasing the size of the production run? Yes. Absolutely. But it would have involved increasing their risk. At a higher price, they might have hit the tipping point and the product could have bombed. Had they made more, they could have been stuck with extra stock and not hit their margin goals for a new product launch.
They got the numbers wrong in terms of the demand that's out there. In terms of what they were willing to risk, I imagine the number was precisely right.
People do want a change when it comes to 40k. A different way of playing miniature games in the 40k universe. This desire will be fully met with no production shortages when it comes to the new edition of 40k.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/04/08 13:53:38
Balance in pick up games? Two people, each with their own goals for the game, design half a board game on their own without knowing the layout of the board and hope it all works out. Good luck with that. The faster you can find like minded individuals who want the same things from the game as you, the better.
2017/04/08 13:44:41
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
Vorian wrote: They massively underestimated the demand and got it wrong. There is no need for any conspiracy theories that make no sense.
I don't think it's a case of "underestimating"... I don't think they made an estimate at all. I think they said we're only making "X" amount of kits without any regard to potential demand. They clearly aren't in any sort of mindset to "sell as many as we can." They need to do market research.
I dunno; we have been previously told that it sounds fairly otiose.
As a marketing strategy, it does increase sales. I had previously been on the fence about picking one up; I can paint skirmish teams up before the ADD sets in and thus like that size of battle but I'm already okay on terrain and have no need of further Orks nor Scouts. However, seeing that the set would likely be in (artificially) short supply made it more attractive to acquire. Coupled with the "discount" on the terrain I did ultimately snag one of the three copies on offer at the store. Going from "eh, maybe" to a "eh, sure" means that aspect of the plan did work.
The obvious fail of course is that if they made X units, they clearly could have made probably 2X, if not 3X or more and still had the same artificial scarcity while making substantially more money. I also really, really dislike that it does promote second-hand selling on. I eyed the other copies at the store and pondered flipping them for a moment (you know, capitalism and all that) but in the end decided I wouldn't like someone else clearing out the store's stock before I got there, so I wasn't going to do that to them. That GW set up a system that encourages that sort of behavior is actually probably the worst part about their plan. GW can dumb about leaving money on the table all they want; it's their business. When they set into motion events where hobbyists harm each other, probably something has gone hideously awry. I'm sure this has happened with other limited releases in the past (e.g. - OG Space Hulk), but with the amount of actual promotion GW did for this game it just seems far sillier than anything I can recall.
2017/04/08 14:01:36
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
aka_mythos wrote:I don't think it's a case of "underestimating"... I don't think they made an estimate at all. I think they said we're only making "X" amount of kits without any regard to potential demand. They clearly aren't in any sort of mindset to "sell as many as we can."
Of course they made an estimate. You don't bring a product to market without looking at how other products similar to it have sold. And you certainly don't engage in something as capital intensive as the design and tooling for a plastic kit without thinking about how many you have to sell to make your investment back and maintain needed margins.
I think GWs manufacturing runs pretty close to capacity and I think that's the reason they can't or won't give us more of certain things. That there volume is dictated by production line capacity in given time frames, particularly now that they've significantly reduced their warehouse space in favor of simply running production lines more frequently. The last 2 years has seen so many products sell-out in pre-order. So if they are "estimating" they suck at it.
2017/04/08 14:05:48
Subject: Games Workshop - Page 6 - Shadow War Armageddon and new AoS Starter Set teased at GAMA trade show
So what sort of market research would have clued GW in that they needed to make more copies of this product up front?
Please bear in mind that it has to somehow be more convincing than their existing sales data for their series of stand alone games.
They got their assessment of the demand totally wrong, but what market research plan would have corrected that in a way that would justified tying up capital (and production time) in a larger production run?
In retrospect it would have obviously been the right move, but "market research" isn't the ability to travel back in time or know the future.
Their preorders aren't up to the task because they come too late for a product like this. The books and tokens aren't manufactured in house, so they can't just turn on machine and make more last minute. I think they have box printing and making machines, and they certainly can make the plastic contents, so the preorder system works for their typical miniature release, but not this one. And while you have online discounters like Wayland making massive preorders, it doesn't necessarily follow that the typical independent store made similarly large preorders.
So what would have worked? What would have let them accurately predict that this was going to sell better than their expectations given they have the sales numbers for their previous stand along games? And given them this information in time to do something about it?
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2017/04/08 14:17:17
Balance in pick up games? Two people, each with their own goals for the game, design half a board game on their own without knowing the layout of the board and hope it all works out. Good luck with that. The faster you can find like minded individuals who want the same things from the game as you, the better.
2017/04/08 14:15:38
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
I know that I couldn't get a copy and thus won't buy any of the terrain for the forseeable future. It's a principle thing, don't buy stuff for a lot more than others just had to pay. Especially if bundled with important gameplay aides like tokens and a physical rulebook. At least pdf rules to check out, but even after 19 years of buying GW stuff I might NOT have artillery dice. And if I have to print tokens and source special dice and everything I might as well go download the team rosters and use them with my OG Necromunda books and terrain.
Sucks for them, I have free time and "I just had three days of five hours exams, lets treat myself" mood and the Death Guard release will probably fall into the time I start working.
This is the first time I'm considering contacting GW to tell them that they'd miss out on my money for the set, potentially add on purchases from people around me and that they should continue support as well as release M2O Necro gangs while they're at it. I'd get full Escher, Delaque, Scavvy and Cawdor gangs, OG Redemptionists and all bounty hunters, beasts, psykers, SCs and the Rat King. Maybe Ratskins, too, but I don't want to go overboard.
Looking for a Skaven Doomwheel banner to repair my Nurgle knights.
2017/04/08 14:23:29
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
aka_mythos wrote: The last 2 years has seen so many products sell-out in pre-order. So if they are "estimating" they suck at it.
If the goal is to mitigate risk to capital and maintain ridiculously impressive margins, then they are not sucking at it at all.
Selling out in pre order never seems to include the stock sent to GW stores or independent stockists. And it seems to increase the demand through those channels as people get in on the hype train.
Yes, they'd make more revenue if they made more copies, but when things don't sell quite as well, then they have extra inventory just sitting around and the money they put into the larger production run (and the opportunity cost paid in their product capabilities not being used for the next product) means they might not hit their margin goals.
I'm not sure they do suck at estimating. I just think the goal is not "Get a product into the hands of every single person who wants one, no matter the risk if things don't sell as well as we'd like."
Think about it this way: their current approach to production runs means that their "sucking" is when they meet all their goals way earlier than expected and people complain about it on the internet but then go line up in the morning at the local store to make sure they get a copy. All while not sinking so much money or production time into a given run so that if it doesn't sell well, it doesn't damage the company.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
kodos wrote:
frozenwastes wrote: So what sort of market research would have clued GW in that they needed to make more copies of this product up front?
Taking the amount of BloodBowl boxes sold/ordered for example as indicator
Do you honestly think they didn't? Like the guy sitting down to decide how many to make was like "better not look at how any of our other stand along games sold. Let's not take Bloodbowl into consideration at all!"
I think the production run was probably very much with Bloodbowl and Warhammer Quest and all those other games in mind. The thing that shocked them is that people want a different way to play 40k than the current version of 40k. They were expecting bloodbowl level of sales and got hit by 40k levels of demand.
Binabik15 wrote:Sucks for them, I have free time and "I just had three days of five hours exams, lets treat myself" mood and the Death Guard release will probably fall into the time I start working.
This is the first time I'm considering contacting GW to tell them that they'd miss out on my money for the set
I know exactly what you mean. I love treating myself with game stuff when things go well in life. And I do think you should contact GW about it if you really feel strongly about it. They underestimated demand.
I just don't think it was as predictable as everyone else. And the standard for accuracy needed for those predictions is way higher than most people realize.
-
This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2017/04/08 14:54:06
Balance in pick up games? Two people, each with their own goals for the game, design half a board game on their own without knowing the layout of the board and hope it all works out. Good luck with that. The faster you can find like minded individuals who want the same things from the game as you, the better.
2017/04/08 14:47:24
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
The main thing I see is that while the new dark lord is an improvement over Kirby he is still an accountant and as such will have a mind set to reflect that.
Accountants hate risk and only see the big picture in relation to figures. If he sees 10k copies made and sold and a nice fat 0 left in inventory he is happy, the fact that retailers are annoyed after getting fluffed at gamma and that only a small amount of potential customers got the product will not even register.
His only goal is to get GW's financials back in order and healthy. The main difference between him and the last incumbent is that he is not a micro manager and knows when to stay hands off and let people do there jobs.
As for the numbers produced they don't research anything they produce the same amount of every one and done set which is the minimum amount they can order and still get the best discount which I have heard is around the 10k mark.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/08 14:53:06
Your last point is especially laughable and comical, because not only the 7th ed Valkyrie shown dumber things (like being able to throw the troopers without parachutes out of its hatches, no harm done) - Irbis
2017/04/08 14:50:58
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
@frozenwastes. I think that's a good point, the last time they sold Necromunda it wasn't selling that much (albeit lacking due support). Rede leasing it in a differant format with new terrain was a risk and one that I'm sure GW assessed prior to manufacture.
I'm suprised though at the lack of more concrete announcements from GW seeing increased demand would be a contingency they would have planned for. I'm guessing (as a corporate tool myself) that the first week of Easter school holidays might have denuded them of an approver for such action. I would hope some better news this week.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/08 14:51:39
How do you promote your Hobby? - Legoburner "I run some crappy wargaming website "
2017/04/08 14:51:57
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
frozenwastes wrote: So what sort of market research would have clued GW in that they needed to make more copies of this product up front?
Hypothetically, if I'd wanted to test potential demand for a GW entry into the tight skirmish game market before committing resources for some 1 - 2 years for making a new game with new miniatures and without spending thousands of pounds/dollars/euros/yens on surveys and focus groups in lots of diverse markets around the world, I might consider simply bundling some terrain I was making anyhow with some old miniatures, copy-&-paste an old dusty ruleset that doesn't take up many manhours from my design team and launch the whole thing as a test balloon just so I have some numbers.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/08 14:52:41
2017/04/08 14:52:24
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
That's only true of improperly trained or amateur accountants. Properly trained ones are fully capable of understanding the bigger picture, because they have to in order to understand how to prevent fraudulent activities and how to ensure that the most useful information is presented to each particular client. Don't talk about subjects you only barely have scratched the surface of.
Also, how do we know this guy's an accountant?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/08 14:52:56
The people in the past who convinced themselves to do unspeakable things were no less human than you or I. They made their decisions; the only thing that prevents history from repeating itself is making different ones.
-- Adam Serwer
My blog
2017/04/08 14:54:54
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
SeanDrake wrote: The main thing I see is that while the new dark lord is an improvement over Kirby he is still an accountant and as such will have a mind set to reflect that.
Accountants hate risk and only see the big picture in relation to figures. If he sees 10k copies made and sold and a nice fat 0 left in inventory he is happy, the fact that retailers are annoyed after getting fluffed at gamma and that only a small amount of potential customers got the product will not even register.
You say that as if it's not the way almost every single firm in the country is run.
And it's not just accountants, it's anyone with half a brain.
How do you promote your Hobby? - Legoburner "I run some crappy wargaming website "
2017/04/08 15:03:27
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
SeanDrake wrote:The main thing I see is that while the new dark lord is an improvement over Kirby he is still an accountant and as such will have a mind set to reflect that.
As a former corporate accountant, I guess I get the mind set. People (rightfully) bring up that GW left a lot of money on the table here, but I think the more important consideration is how much money could have been at risk if they were overly optimistic about how this was going to sell.
I must admit that I find it very strange that I've become a defender of GW's approach to business. I really thought Kirby was going to do a lot more damage with his contempt for communicating with the customer. His semi-retirement might have been the best thing possible for GW.
As for the numbers produced they don't research anything they produce the same amount of every one and done set which is the minimum amount they can order and still get the best discount which I have heard is around the 10k mark.
Well, it's probably the case that given their high prices, that might actually meet their goals in terms of covering capital investment and maintaining their margins on future sales of the terrain kits.
notprop wrote:@frozenwastes. I think that's a good point, the last time they sold Necromunda it wasn't selling that much (albeit lacking due support). Rede leasing it in a differant format with new terrain was a risk and one that I'm sure GW assessed prior to manufacture.
I'm suprised though at the lack of more concrete announcements from GW seeing increased demand would be a contingency they would have planned for. I'm guessing (as a corporate tool myself) that the first week of Easter school holidays might have denuded them of an approver for such action. I would hope some better news this week.
Yeah. Their response has been as poor as the assessment of demand.
I honestly think a release of the rules as a digital product and the upcoming terrain is enough of a response, but it was just done really poorly. They just should have had a statement ready to go just in case. Or at the very least had the product page turn into some sort of "email when this is available again" page and then email all those people when it goes digital only.
Wonderwolf wrote:
frozenwastes wrote: So what sort of market research would have clued GW in that they needed to make more copies of this product up front?
Hypothetically, if I'd wanted to test potential demand for a GW entry into the tight skirmish game market before committing resources for some 1 - 2 years for making a new game with new miniatures and without spending thousands of pounds/dollars/euros/yens on surveys and focus groups in lots of diverse markets around the world, I might consider simply bundling some terrain I was making anyhow with some old miniatures, copy-&-paste an old dusty ruleset that doesn't take up many manhours from my design team and launch the whole thing as a test balloon just so I have some numbers.
This is the best post ever on the subject.
Melissia wrote:That's only true of improperly trained or amateur accountants. Properly trained ones are fully capable of understanding the bigger picture, because they have to in order to understand how to prevent fraudulent activities and how to ensure that the most useful information is presented to each particular client. Don't talk about subjects you only barely have scratched the surface of.
Was there something about Rountree that makes you think he doesn't understand the bigger picture? Or isn't properly trained?
Would you advise a client to increase a production run without any data supporting a likely increase in sales?
"He qualified as a chartered management accountant in August 2001. Prior to joining Games Workshop, Kevin was the management accountant at J Barbour & Sons Limited and trained at Price Waterhouse."
Seems strange that you chastised someone for not knowing about accounting and then didn't know that generally publicly traded companies are very up front about the biographies of their c-level executives.
This message was edited 7 times. Last update was at 2017/04/08 15:35:54
Balance in pick up games? Two people, each with their own goals for the game, design half a board game on their own without knowing the layout of the board and hope it all works out. Good luck with that. The faster you can find like minded individuals who want the same things from the game as you, the better.
2017/04/08 15:07:05
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
Do you honestly think they didn't? Like the guy sitting down to decide how many to make was like "better not look at how any of our other stand along games sold. Let's not take Bloodbowl into consideration at all!"
No, I think they look on all Boxed Games, for some were just an experiment to see how much can be sold in a specific combination
like nice models, useless rules, huge discount
or old models, good rules, no discount
sometimes it seems they just look at the last boxed game numbers.
not sure if they made the conclusion that good rules for a full multi faction game will outsell every box with shiny new models.
some say Burning of Prospero was a desaster like Dreadfleet
while BloodBowl and SW:A sold more than expected
the rules as the important factor of selling stuff is obvious for most people
I would have not expected that after BloodBowl they again make the mistake to underestimate the interest in good rules.
Harry, bring this ring to Narnia or the Sith will take the Enterprise
2017/04/08 15:28:53
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
Kijamon wrote: There is absolutely no way burning of prospero was a flop. They had limited stock over Christmas for stockists.
I know, and most stores I know sold all their copies
but some people on german forums who claim to have insider infos, still say that BoP sold worse than Dreadfleet
I have no number's for a counter argument and just the impression that it sold good
Harry, bring this ring to Narnia or the Sith will take the Enterprise
2017/04/08 15:46:36
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
Kijamon wrote: There is absolutely no way burning of prospero was a flop. They had limited stock over Christmas for stockists.
I know, and most stores I know sold all their copies
but some people on german forums who claim to have insider infos, still say that BoP sold worse than Dreadfleet
I have no number's for a counter argument and just the impression that it sold good
Dreadfleet sold to stores really well, it's the fact that it sat once people saw and got a look at it and the gameplay that killed it. With BoP, Local shops also had to deal with online stores who were selling it, and the fact that it was a sequel to the Calth box and cheap mark armor. People were buying multiples from online stores instead of in shop when they can buy four for the price of three and have a 30k army all but built.
LOL, Theo your mind is an amazing place, never change.-camkierhi 9/19/13
I cant believe theo is right.. damn. -comradepanda 9/26/13
None of the strange ideas we had about you involved your sexual orientation..........-Monkeytroll 12/10/13
I'd put you on ignore for that comment, if I could...Alpharius 2/11/14
2017/04/08 15:53:24
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
kodos wrote: I would have not expected that after BloodBowl they again make the mistake to underestimate the interest in good rules.
I get what you are saying now and I agree. I just think the real driver of demand here was that it is an alternative to the 40k rules set but you can still do 40k with it. So better rules, but also different. I think it got 40k customer demand rather than just stand alone game demand.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/08 15:53:37
Balance in pick up games? Two people, each with their own goals for the game, design half a board game on their own without knowing the layout of the board and hope it all works out. Good luck with that. The faster you can find like minded individuals who want the same things from the game as you, the better.
2017/04/08 16:23:34
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
kodos wrote: I would have not expected that after BloodBowl they again make the mistake to underestimate the interest in good rules.
I get what you are saying now and I agree. I just think the real driver of demand here was that it is an alternative to the 40k rules set but you can still do 40k with it. So better rules, but also different. I think it got 40k customer demand rather than just stand alone game demand.
yeah it got the 40k players craving for a playable game demand
and GW still underestimate the power of good rules for selling their stuff
Harry, bring this ring to Narnia or the Sith will take the Enterprise
2017/04/08 16:29:49
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
frozenwastes wrote: So what sort of market research would have clued GW in that they needed to make more copies of this product up front?
Taking the amount of BloodBowl boxes sold/ordered for example as indicator
It goes back to what I was saying, initially many of the Blood Bowl products sold out, so it can't really be used other than to tell them that if they only make "X" they'll sell out.
2017/04/08 16:43:45
Subject: Games Workshop - Page 6 - Shadow War Armageddon and new AoS Starter Set teased at GAMA trade show
That's someone also being ridiculous - though it being up (and actually going) for around £150 is also pants on head crazy.
Guess people really love a printed rulebook and tokens! I'm tempted to sell my rulebook for the silly money it's going for!
It is crazy but entirely predictable. If you keep an eye on the used market, anything at all with a limited edition or rare attached to it goes for stupid money.
I have 2 models of the old legion of the damned Sergant Centurius, one painted, one in its original blister. I was offered £80 for the blister pack one by someone I had never met before who was looking at the painted one on a gaming table when I mentioned I had another.
People go crazy for rare GW stuff, which is why doing limited runs of actual games is such a poor choice.
2017/04/08 17:03:35
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
SeanDrake wrote: The main thing I see is that while the new dark lord is an improvement over Kirby he is still an accountant and as such will have a mind set to reflect that.
Accountants hate risk and only see the big picture in relation to figures. If he sees 10k copies made and sold and a nice fat 0 left in inventory he is happy, the fact that retailers are annoyed after getting fluffed at gamma and that only a small amount of potential customers got the product will not even register.
You say that as if it's not the way almost every single firm in the country is run.
And it's not just accountants, it's anyone with half a brain.
No. Selling out of a product without the ability to fulfill future orders, in the business world is generally regarded as a failure. Your accountants maybe happy, but they're happy when money spent equals money earned. Investors want as much money earned as possible and a failure to meet demand is a failure to optimize profits and shareholder value.
When trying to meet demand based on collected data the business people should generate an optimization curve to dictate production. In doing so a properly managed and forecasted demand should over estimate ideally between 3-5% more than what's "needed" because after a point the price of those extra so many units should become negligible. Consider GW produced the box and sold at msrp for $130, or $80 wholesale... following general practices only 1/3 of that $80 is material cost, some percentage is R&D and tooling, and some is overhead, the remainder becomes profit. If GW plans this initially as a 20k unit production by the time you produce that last box all your R&D, tooling, and a percentage of overhead are completely absorbed. So the profit of every box beyond 20k, is doubled; instead of profiting $27, they're profiting almost $54 a box... at that level any company should be willing to absorb a prospect where only 1-in-3 of that manufactured overage has to be sold. Particularly with this sort of game, that overage risk is significantly mitigated as the unsold boxsets can be broken up and sold in those smaller individual kits or even scrapped with the plastic being ground and turned to new sprues, where the cost of the paper goods are absorbed by the higher margins of those smaller kits.
While there might be an opportunity cost in having assets tied up in extra inventory, not having that overage costs you the opportunity for market share growth. Without overage you will never grow the customer base.
Let's also point out that one of GWs failings is that IF they are soooooo risk adverse they should seriously consider running "pre-orders" as true pre-orders, where it pre-ordered while in production and used to establish what volume of product is necessary. What GW does is really pre-selling and allocating.
2017/04/08 17:15:38
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
Let's also point out that one of GWs failings is that IF they are soooooo risk adverse they should seriously consider running "pre-orders" as true pre-orders, where it pre-ordered while in production and used to establish what volume of product is necessary. What GW does is really pre-selling and allocating.
but than they would need to break with the dogma of not advertising anything in advance or let costumers know about their plans for the next 6 months
Harry, bring this ring to Narnia or the Sith will take the Enterprise
2017/04/08 17:32:10
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
SeanDrake wrote: The main thing I see is that while the new dark lord is an improvement over Kirby he is still an accountant and as such will have a mind set to reflect that.
Accountants hate risk and only see the big picture in relation to figures. If he sees 10k copies made and sold and a nice fat 0 left in inventory he is happy, the fact that retailers are annoyed after getting fluffed at gamma and that only a small amount of potential customers got the product will not even register.
You say that as if it's not the way almost every single firm in the country is run.
And it's not just accountants, it's anyone with half a brain.
No. Selling out of a product without the ability to fulfill future orders, in the business world is generally regarded as a failure. Your accountants maybe happy, but they're happy when money spent equals money earned. Investors want as much money earned as possible and a failure to meet demand is a failure to optimize profits and shareholder value.
When trying to meet demand based on collected data the business people should generate an optimization curve to dictate production. In doing so a properly managed and forecasted demand should over estimate ideally between 3-5% more than what's "needed" because after a point the price of those extra so many units should become negligible. Consider GW produced the box and sold at msrp for $130, or $80 wholesale... following general practices only 1/3 of that $80 is material cost, some percentage is R&D and tooling, and some is overhead, the remainder becomes profit. If GW plans this initially as a 20k unit production by the time you produce that last box all your R&D, tooling, and a percentage of overhead are completely absorbed. So the profit of every box beyond 20k, is doubled; instead of profiting $27, they're profiting almost $54 a box... at that level any company should be willing to absorb a prospect where only 1-in-3 of that manufactured overage has to be sold. Particularly with this sort of game, that overage risk is significantly mitigated as the unsold boxsets can be broken up and sold in those smaller individual kits or even scrapped with the plastic being ground and turned to new sprues, where the cost of the paper goods are absorbed by the higher margins of those smaller kits.
While there might be an opportunity cost in having assets tied up in extra inventory, not having that overage costs you the opportunity for market share growth. Without overage you will never grow the customer base.
Let's also point out that one of GWs failings is that IF they are soooooo risk adverse they should seriously consider running "pre-orders" as true pre-orders, where it pre-ordered while in production and used to establish what volume of product is necessary. What GW does is really pre-selling and allocating.
But they have already stated the rules will be more widely available soon and the terrain kits will be available individually starting next week. GW is doing exactly what you are saying they should be doing. That it isn't available in a single box anymore seems to be the only arguing point. People are claiming GW could have probably made twice as many, but that has no basis or support. The print run was likely at least 20,000 units based on information from previous threads on stand alone GW games. If they were off by just 10% that is still 2000 angry people that are coming onto the internet to rant. Just 100 of those coming to DakkaDakka to fume is a massive amount for a thread.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/04/08 17:32:59
2017/04/08 17:42:42
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
I think the issue is that it wasn't billed as Limited Release until it's pre-order went up.
I managed to secure a copy (it's in the post) but I still think it's rotten others missed out, especially when some FLGS on-line orders weren't fulfilled.
I've heard some GW stores got no stock, and my local one only got two in, which were reserved (likely for peeps that missed out pre-ordering in store last week).
I get it sold incredibly well, but they've seriously dropped the ball on this release - and it's not going to take many paranoid interwebular comments until people are convinced it wasn't a honest muck up, but a calculated plan to sell more of the terrain at full price (I'm not arguing that!) so they've shot themselves in the foot.
I still hold out some hope there'll be a full reprint before long, but expectation goes down every day.
Fed up of Scalpers? But still want your Exclusives? Why not join us?
But they have already stated the rules will be more widely available soon.
if GW wants, they could have already put a digital rulebook in their shop.
there is a digital copy available for the printing company, to convert it to an ebook of any kind takes an hour (or just minutes if you skip to make an index, search etc)
so it could have been online today
the fact that it is not just tells me that "soon" will be a very long time
Harry, bring this ring to Narnia or the Sith will take the Enterprise
2017/04/08 17:54:37
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
This is a really pointless argument when no one knows:
a) How many units GW produced.
b) How many units GW sold.
All we know is that they're the same number. It might be that 'a' is a totally sensible figure - like many times the copies they made of Bloodbowl and Silver Tower like everyone is saying they 'should' have - but the demand was just that high.
I mean, probably not, but without knowing the numbers, it's all just speculation. They underestimated demand, but we have no idea how reasonable their initial estimate was.
And, honestly, if it didn't sell out, a lot of people here would be calling it a failure. I remember when they did limited editions of the first few AoS Battletomes and how much pure glee there was that they didn't sell out in minutes like the old Warhammer books. GW can't really win here.
PS. I got my order in the moment it went up - like, 09:55 - so I may just be a bit smug...
2017/04/08 17:55:31
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
It sounds very much like my local GW got almost none too, talking up coming in and picking up a box until Thursday when all the post were deleted and replaced with
we got very few, arrive before we open to have any chance of getting one
2017/04/08 17:58:11
Subject: Games Workshop - Shadow War Armageddon - sold out already (pg 62)
SeanDrake wrote: The main thing I see is that while the new dark lord is an improvement over Kirby he is still an accountant and as such will have a mind set to reflect that.
Accountants hate risk and only see the big picture in relation to figures. If he sees 10k copies made and sold and a nice fat 0 left in inventory he is happy, the fact that retailers are annoyed after getting fluffed at gamma and that only a small amount of potential customers got the product will not even register.
You say that as if it's not the way almost every single firm in the country is run.
And it's not just accountants, it's anyone with half a brain.
No. Selling out of a product without the ability to fulfill future orders, in the business world is generally regarded as a failure. Your accountants maybe happy, but they're happy when money spent equals money earned. Investors want as much money earned as possible and a failure to meet demand is a failure to optimize profits and shareholder value.
When trying to meet demand based on collected data the business people should generate an optimization curve to dictate production. In doing so a properly managed and forecasted demand should over estimate ideally between 3-5% more than what's "needed" because after a point the price of those extra so many units should become negligible. Consider GW produced the box and sold at msrp for $130, or $80 wholesale... following general practices only 1/3 of that $80 is material cost, some percentage is R&D and tooling, and some is overhead, the remainder becomes profit. If GW plans this initially as a 20k unit production by the time you produce that last box all your R&D, tooling, and a percentage of overhead are completely absorbed. So the profit of every box beyond 20k, is doubled; instead of profiting $27, they're profiting almost $54 a box... at that level any company should be willing to absorb a prospect where only 1-in-3 of that manufactured overage has to be sold. Particularly with this sort of game, that overage risk is significantly mitigated as the unsold boxsets can be broken up and sold in those smaller individual kits or even scrapped with the plastic being ground and turned to new sprues, where the cost of the paper goods are absorbed by the higher margins of those smaller kits.
While there might be an opportunity cost in having assets tied up in extra inventory, not having that overage costs you the opportunity for market share growth. Without overage you will never grow the customer base.
Let's also point out that one of GWs failings is that IF they are soooooo risk adverse they should seriously consider running "pre-orders" as true pre-orders, where it pre-ordered while in production and used to establish what volume of product is necessary. What GW does is really pre-selling and allocating.
Selling out is good, it's how you manage that fortunate situation that governs whether or not is is a success. Now if as I am lead to believe there is distribution stock that is to be made available then they can leverage what will already been seen as a successful release into a great one. It's only day 1 of release, let's see what happens in the new week before declaring ruination and disaster.
How do you promote your Hobby? - Legoburner "I run some crappy wargaming website "
