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 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
When the economy is in the gutter, and the Brexit generation are dead, it’ll happen.

Well the terms will be very bad for eu to take troublemaker back in to cause more trouble

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
When the economy is in the gutter, and the Brexit generation are dead, it’ll happen.

The economy was always going to end up in the gutter at some point (boom/bust), the 'Brexit generation' gap is quite possibly down to several other factors, and as is immediately self-evident, you're relying on a belief that world and local circumstances will remain completely static or in the favour of your conclusion.

I don't mind people hoping that we'll rejoin (we all have dreams), but the implication that it's inevitable is just plain wishful thinking.

An attempt to rejoin would depend on a major political party making it a campaign platform issue. This seems unlikely in the near future.

The Tories are hardly likeley to reverse their own policy so quickly.

Corbyn has always been somewhat Euro-sceptic and hasn't made the political hay of the government's difficulties on the topic that would indicate a change of heart.

I dunno, there's a possibility we'll be successful on the outside but it's going to take some world class politics.

With the economic benefits of being in the EU very clear, and the gains of Brexit being virtually non-existant, and with polling showing that more people now want to be in than out, I think it's virtually inevitable that we'll rejoin. I'd go so far as to say I'm confident we'll be back in the EU/EEA within a decade, much to the rage of the brexiteers and relief of everyone else.

Herzlos wrote:
I dunno, there's a possibility we'll be successful on the outside but it's going to take some world class politics.

With the economic benefits of being in the EU very clear, and the gains of Brexit being virtually non-existant, and with polling showing that more people now want to be in than out, I think it's virtually inevitable that we'll rejoin. I'd go so far as to say I'm confident we'll be back in the EU/EEA within a decade, much to the rage of the brexiteers and relief of everyone else.

Question is, do we actually want you guys back? I'd want to see some guarantees you are not going to have second thoughts about it and mess up our economies again.

The only two ways we won't do so within a generation is if either:

a) We end up so closely aligned that we replicate all of the benefits of membership for the everyday voter (freedom of movement is probably the biggie) that it's hard to whip up the fervour for political union again

b) Some sort of unforeseeable cataclysmic event ruins the EU/causes Brexit to be a huge success.

Any Brexit that crashes the economy, causes huge job loss, interferes greatly in the day to day lives of people etc will be easy to pin blame on. I'd give it 15 years at most before a party gets into power at a GE on a platform of rejoining (or at least offering the referendum for it).

And yes, it will be in a weaker position than the one we'd have left. Thanks, Leave voters...

In fifteen years, any ructions will have died down, we'll still be a top world economy (barring some unforeseen major catastrophe), and nobody will carebabout joining the EU, anymore than people in Japan do. There'll be other far more pressing political concerns to deal with, because politics is inherently short termist.

I doubt it. In 15 years time there will be 15 years worth of voters who grew up in the EU and potentially have some awareness of what we've given up, like Freedom of Movement.

If our economy is doing well, and the EU isn't, then there'd be no incentive to want back in. But if our economy could do better within the EU (because it's got better trade deals, the customs union is actually a good thing, and so on), then there will be plenty of demand to get back in.

It will all depend on how much economic damage Brexit does. Potentially if industries are completely ruined and irrecoverable, there will be no benefit to rejoining, and there won't be companies like Nissan, JLR, Airbus, campaigning for us to re-join because they've already moved and no longer care.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

Herzlos wrote:
I dunno, there's a possibility we'll be successful on the outside but it's going to take some world class politics.

With the economic benefits of being in the EU very clear, and the gains of Brexit being virtually non-existant, and with polling showing that more people now want to be in than out, I think it's virtually inevitable that we'll rejoin. I'd go so far as to say I'm confident we'll be back in the EU/EEA within a decade, much to the rage of the brexiteers and relief of everyone else.

Question is, do we actually want you guys back? I'd want to see some guarantees you are not going to have second thoughts about it and mess up our economies again.

That is the big issue - what will we have to concede to be allowed back in?

All I see from Brexit is an expensive opportunity to take us back to where we were but with less money, influence and opt-outs. But hey - our EU contributions will go down (because they are based on our economy).

Herzlos wrote:
I doubt it. In 15 years time there will be 15 years worth of voters who grew up in the EU and potentially have some awareness of what we've given up, like Freedom of Movement.

Probably the last piece of key legislation that the UK will participate wil be the new ETIAS system which was voted yesterday.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-18-4362_en.htm

Travelers to the EU will have to start getting familiar with it.

As someone who has been ESTA-denied I'd hate to be at the other side of such a system.

Hopefully we'll still be VISA excempt - but I'm not sure that'd automatically be the case with a "no deal"?

That said, ESTA isn't too bad. My scan always fails so I end up having to queue anyway. At least the ETIAS will be valid for 3 years, so isn't going to add much time/cost overhead.

I'm curious as to what the criteria for entry is, and how many people will be denied their annual Spanish piss up.

 Ketara wrote:
In fifteen years, any ructions will have died down, we'll still be a top world economy (barring some unforeseen major catastrophe), and nobody will carebabout joining the EU, anymore than people in Japan do. There'll be other far more pressing political concerns to deal with, because politics is inherently short termist.

Sadly I tend to agree, apart from the fact that I think major economic troubles are more likely. Bear in mind that it was our economic troubles in the 70’s that were a big driver for joining in the first place.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Also, credit where it’s due, the US have got a really good system in the ESTA, it’s quick, easy and very reasonably priced.

Nice to see you back in here Ketara.

Wanted to run an idea past you; what to you think of the idea of the uk joining EFTA? It was something I was talking about in the past. Not sure if you had seen it or not.

Herzlos wrote:
Hopefully we'll still be VISA excempt - but I'm not sure that'd automatically be the case with a "no deal"?

That said, ESTA isn't too bad.

The concept itself is pretty neutral. It's once they start tacking things like "if you've ever been to this country you don't qualify" that gets on my nerves.

I'm doing the Yukon rather than Alaska this September out of principle.

jouso wrote:

Herzlos wrote:
That said, ESTA isn't too bad.

The concept itself is pretty neutral. It's once they start tacking things like "if you've ever been to this country you don't qualify" that gets on my nerves.

I need a special visa to get into the US on account of regularly going to Iraq, but I don’t feel I’m particularly hard-done-by. It’s expensive and a hassle but it lasts ten years at a time.


Chequers summit agenda:

https://goo.gl/images/iv3d2x

1hr 45mins for No Deal prep. Bet everyone who says the government aren’t taking that sufficiently seriously feels pretty dumb now, eh?!


Automatically Appended Next Post:

I have very little time for Wings, but this is a curious idea to alleviate post-Brexit border issues in Ireland: place a border on the much shorter Scotland-England border, which surprisingly high numbers of voters polled are comfortable with. It’s not going to happen, it’d be too much of a step towards Scottish independence, but some thinking outside the box is always useful.

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-divided-kingdom/

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Nice to see you back in here Ketara.

Wanted to run an idea past you; what to you think of the idea of the uk joining EFTA? It was something I was talking about in the past. Not sure if you had seen it or not.

Well i mean that could technically work out for you, but considering how much we get Nickel and dimed by the EU you ain't gonna fare that much better.
Still probably would add some more weight to the EFTA and therfore better chances at negotiations outside of Europe.

nfe wrote:

jouso wrote:

Herzlos wrote:
That said, ESTA isn't too bad.

The concept itself is pretty neutral. It's once they start tacking things like "if you've ever been to this country you don't qualify" that gets on my nerves.

I need a special visa to get into the US on account of regularly going to Iraq, but I don’t feel I’m particularly hard-done-by. It’s expensive and a hassle but it lasts ten years at a time.


Chequers summit agenda:

https://goo.gl/images/iv3d2x

1hr 45mins for No Deal prep. Bet everyone who says the government aren’t taking that sufficiently seriously feels pretty dumb now, eh?!


Automatically Appended Next Post:

I have very little time for Wings, but this is a curious idea to alleviate post-Brexit border issues in Ireland: place a border on the much shorter Scotland-England border, which surprisingly high numbers of voters polled are comfortable with. It’s not going to happen, it’d be too much of a step towards Scottish independence, but some thinking outside the box is always useful.

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-divided-kingdom/

Surely that will only work if all traffic between NI and Great Britain goes to Scotland. It also imposes unnecessary extra difficulty and cost on people moving between England and Scotland.

It's only the DUP who are ideologically opposed to a border in the Irish Sea, where one effectively already exists because all traffic between Ireland and Great Britain has to go by air or ship.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

nfe wrote:

jouso wrote:

Herzlos wrote:
That said, ESTA isn't too bad.

The concept itself is pretty neutral. It's once they start tacking things like "if you've ever been to this country you don't qualify" that gets on my nerves.

I need a special visa to get into the US on account of regularly going to Iraq, but I don’t feel I’m particularly hard-done-by. It’s expensive and a hassle but it lasts ten years at a time.


Chequers summit agenda:

https://goo.gl/images/iv3d2x

1hr 45mins for No Deal prep. Bet everyone who says the government aren’t taking that sufficiently seriously feels pretty dumb now, eh?!


Automatically Appended Next Post:

I have very little time for Wings, but this is a curious idea to alleviate post-Brexit border issues in Ireland: place a border on the much shorter Scotland-England border, which surprisingly high numbers of voters polled are comfortable with. It’s not going to happen, it’d be too much of a step towards Scottish independence, but some thinking outside the box is always useful.

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-divided-kingdom/

Surely that will only work if all traffic between NI and Great Britain goes to Scotland. It also imposes unnecessary extra difficulty and cost on people moving between England and Scotland.

It's only the DUP who are ideologically opposed to a border in the Irish Sea, where one effectively already exists because all traffic between Ireland and Great Britain has to go by air or ship.

...and sadly they hold the Govt by the balls, for the time being.

The DUP need to make hay while the sun shines because I imagine that a Labour Govt will do them no favours, and possibly even worse, a resurgent and vengeful Tory Govt with a majority may not be very forgiving of their erstwhile "allies".

tneva82 wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
When the economy is in the gutter, and the Brexit generation are dead, it’ll happen.

Well the terms will be very bad for eu to take troublemaker back in to cause more trouble

It's more likely we will get the same offer as everyone else. Whilst we may have benefits now, they won't be there then. But I'm not sure people will care that much, as the benefits we have now are largely due to an older, bigoted, generation that don't really like anyone not white and british. The younger generation appear to have much less of that bigotry. Hence things like continued border checks are unlikely to be the major concern they are now. If the Euro is equivalent to the £ in value then it makes sense to merge the currencies as all you are really doing is charging yourself for the privilege of changing a face on a piece of paper/plastic. In a generation that can talk to or play with someone that is Australian, French, American, Polish all at the same time with no boundaries then the concept of hard boundaries at an arbitrary line becomes a joke.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Ketara wrote:
In fifteen years, any ructions will have died down, we'll still be a top world economy (barring some unforeseen major catastrophe), and nobody will carebabout joining the EU, anymore than people in Japan do. There'll be other far more pressing political concerns to deal with, because politics is inherently short termist.

Of course to point out the flaw in this theory. That being people wanting to leave the EU has lasted since we joined. Hence the idea that it will all die down doesn't really ring true because you could have said that about joining in the first place. I think this is more what you want to happen, rather than what will happen with any evidence to back it up!


Automatically Appended Next Post:

nfe wrote:


Chequers summit agenda:

https://goo.gl/images/iv3d2x

1hr 45mins for No Deal prep. Bet everyone who says the government aren’t taking that sufficiently seriously feels pretty dumb now, eh?!

Haven't you seen there has been an update to this in the last few minutes:-

I never thought I'd ever say this, but thank God for the EU,

because this latest negotiating position from the cabinet is concentrated bollocks from start to finish.

Feth me with a fish fork, but it's come to something when a Brexit supporter like me has to rely on the EU for Brexit.

Check out these euphemisms.


The single market is now harmonisation of goods.


The ECJ has been renamed joint jurisdiction


The customs union is now the common customs territory


And freedom of movement is now mobility framework!!!




Feth me, this is a British sell-out which is up there with Munich.

Party before country. It's the Conservative party motto.

We did gakking tell you

You voted for this.

 Kilkrazy wrote:


Surely that will only work if all traffic between NI and Great Britain goes to Scotland. It also imposes unnecessary extra difficulty and cost on people moving between England and Scotland.

As a Scot that's fine with me. I'd rather have seamless access to Europe than England.

It's also worth noting that NI and Scotland both voted remain, so anything that brings us closer to remain with England doing all the leaving is perfect.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
I never thought I'd ever say this, but thank God for the EU,

because this latest negotiating position from the cabinet is concentrated bollocks from start to finish.

Party before country. It's the Conservative party motto.

I think we should call it the Schrodingers Wrexit policy. We are both in and out of the EU at the same time.

It's in reality a lot of waffly words though as they have no meaing or context. They've basically spent the day agreeing a set of words that in the cold light of day mean nothing.

For example they will align for industrial agriculture, but at the same time allow for us to reject any changes depending on a parliamentary vote which could result in the deal come crashing down at any instant. At the same time they want to work to a customs alignment that's different from what we already have but wouldn't be compatible with us allowing us to change it on a whim. They want a customs arrangement without freedom of movement but with a system that you can be denied access depending on how racist the Tory party are feeling on any particular day. That's not freedom of movement. They want regulatory flexibility for the financial market and hence only part of the service industry but without the other alignments that come with it. There are so many contradictions you can drive a bus through the fudge. And they have taken 2 years to come up with this mess. It's still have the cake and eat it just in different wording.

However it is another slide towards effectively being in the EU without any say over the rules whilst trying to avoid the inevitable. You might as well stay in the EU!

We might be reaching the stage where we're paying the EU 40 billion just to stay in the EU

Because that's what this plan amounts to. It's the worst of both worlds.

Feth me, if I rounded up 10 Remain dakka members and sent them to Brussels to negotiate Brexit, they could have done a better job.

Two years for this horsegak????

I suppose the good news is that Barnier will do a De Gaulle and give us a Non non non.

The good news for Remainers is that Gove, Bojo, Fox, and DD are finished. There credibility, what little they had if any, is gone for evermore.

You can't keep threatening to resign and not resign. You can't claim to support Brexit and then sign up for this bollocks. They put their cushy job ahead of their principals.

Farage will probably make a comeback off of this, The Times is saying that May will fire Bojo, and a Corbyn victory looks a good possibility.

Who will trust the Tories again after this sell-out?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Whirlwind wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
I never thought I'd ever say this, but thank God for the EU,

because this latest negotiating position from the cabinet is concentrated bollocks from start to finish.

Party before country. It's the Conservative party motto.

I think we should call it the Schrodingers Wrexit policy. We are both in and out of the EU at the same time.

It's in reality a lot of waffly words though as they have no meaing or context. They've basically spent the day agreeing a set of words that in the cold light of day mean nothing.

For example they will align for industrial agriculture, but at the same time allow for us to reject any changes depending on a parliamentary vote which could result in the deal come crashing down at any instant. At the same time they want to work to a customs alignment that's different from what we already have but wouldn't be compatible with us allowing us to change it on a whim. They want a customs arrangement without freedom of movement but with a system that you can be denied access depending on how racist the Tory party are feeling on any particular day. That's not freedom of movement. They want regulatory flexibility for the financial market and hence only part of the service industry but without the other alignments that come with it. There are so many contradictions you can drive a bus through the fudge. And they have taken 2 years to come up with this mess. It's still have the cake and eat it just in different wording.

However it is another slide towards effectively being in the EU without any say over the rules whilst trying to avoid the inevitable. You might as well stay in the EU!

I completely agree with you. And I'm relying on your side to save the day for Brexit.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Deadnight wrote:
You voted for this.

And I wonder why I bothered.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Herzlos wrote:
We did gakking tell you

To be fair to you, you did.

You know, when I was growing up in the 1980s, the Tories did a lot of damage. And now they're doing it again to Brexit with their serial incompetence.

They rolled up the white flag to Hitler in the 1930s, and gave us the Suez debacle.


And yet, come the next election, millions of people will still vote for them...


If I live to be a million, I'll never understand why...

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

Two years for this horsegak????

The phrase 'we told you so' comes to mind. Brexit delusions, meet reality.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

And I wonder why I bothered.

Because you'd rather ignore facts, and believe in sensationalist headlines, or lies on a bus, rather than the all important details, because you're 'not a detail person'.

This is yours. Own it.

Sympathy. I have none.

Things is though, this won't be the end of it. Portillo is spot on when he predicts a decade of instability.


Remain supporters will want to use this as a springboard for back into the EU.


Brexit supporters will try and chip away at this with guerrilla warfare from the backbenches. UKIP will probably be back from the dead.


This will keep rumbling on...

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
Things is though, this won't be the end of it. Portillo is spot on when he predicts a decade of instability.


Remain supporters will want to use this as a springboard for back into the EU.


Brexit supporters will try and chip away at this with guerrilla warfare from the backbenches. UKIP will probably be back from the dead.


This will keep rumbling on...

And you will believe the lies when they promise you that *this* time the Europeans will really come crawling to us for a deal and we hold all the cards. Vote for it again, and Lucy will pull away the ball from Charlie Brown yet again and we will wonder what it takes for reality to penetrate.

Feth me, Vince Cable is now on record as saying that this proposal is horsegak, or words to those effect.

We're in twilight zone territory now when even a diehard EU supporter is shooting this down in flames.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
...Who will trust the Tories again after this sell-out?
.....And yet, come the next election, millions of people will still vote for them...


If I live to be a million, I'll never understand why...

You're not the only one. How anyone can equate current conservatives with fiscal responsibility and stability is utterly beyond me.

They are quite literally breaking the country apart, and people still vote for them. It's surreal, you feel a bit foolish pointing out that what your mate has just parroted out is in fact utter bollocks. You'd think everyone would know, or at least be able to read, and remember back further than the last couple of days. But when it comes to the conservatives, it's like some shutter comes down and just blanks off everything they've actually done.

It's mind boggling.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
We might be reaching the stage where we're paying the EU 40 billion just to stay in the EU

Because that's what this plan amounts to. It's the worst of both worlds.

Feth me, if I rounded up 10 Remain dakka members and sent them to Brussels to negotiate Brexit, they could have done a better job.

Two years for this horsegak????

I suppose the good news is that Barnier will do a De Gaulle and give us a Non non non.

The good news for Remainers is that Gove, Bojo, Fox, and DD are finished. There credibility, what little they had if any, is gone for evermore.

You can't keep threatening to resign and not resign. You can't claim to support Brexit and then sign up for this bollocks. They put their cushy job ahead of their principals.

Farage will probably make a comeback off of this, The Times is saying that May will fire Bojo, and a Corbyn victory looks a good possibility.

Who will trust the Tories again after this sell-out?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Whirlwind wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
I never thought I'd ever say this, but thank God for the EU,

because this latest negotiating position from the cabinet is concentrated bollocks from start to finish.

Party before country. It's the Conservative party motto.

I think we should call it the Schrodingers Wrexit policy. We are both in and out of the EU at the same time.

It's in reality a lot of waffly words though as they have no meaing or context. They've basically spent the day agreeing a set of words that in the cold light of day mean nothing.

For example they will align for industrial agriculture, but at the same time allow for us to reject any changes depending on a parliamentary vote which could result in the deal come crashing down at any instant. At the same time they want to work to a customs alignment that's different from what we already have but wouldn't be compatible with us allowing us to change it on a whim. They want a customs arrangement without freedom of movement but with a system that you can be denied access depending on how racist the Tory party are feeling on any particular day. That's not freedom of movement. They want regulatory flexibility for the financial market and hence only part of the service industry but without the other alignments that come with it. There are so many contradictions you can drive a bus through the fudge. And they have taken 2 years to come up with this mess. It's still have the cake and eat it just in different wording.

However it is another slide towards effectively being in the EU without any say over the rules whilst trying to avoid the inevitable. You might as well stay in the EU!

I completely agree with you. And I'm relying on your side to save the day for Brexit.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Deadnight wrote:
You voted for this.

And I wonder why I bothered.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Herzlos wrote:
We did gakking tell you

To be fair to you, you did.

You know, when I was growing up in the 1980s, the Tories did a lot of damage. And now they're doing it again to Brexit with their serial incompetence.

They rolled up the white flag to Hitler in the 1930s, and gave us the Suez debacle.


And yet, come the next election, millions of people will still vote for them...


If I live to be a million, I'll never understand why...

Tbf how could've anyone thought that you would be keeping all advantages and just take what you want from the EU without playing after their tune to a degree is beyond me.
Especially when there are similiar countries in europe, that pay a lot of money and have no say and are stuck in the same situation to a degree.