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Woman gives birth in coastguard helicopter over Cornwall

A feel-good story to counteract the general gloomy feelings.

The lady involved was visiting the Scilly Isles and went into labour early. The island midwife was away on the mainland, so the coastguard helicopter was despatched with a midwife. The baby boy was delivered during the 15 minute journey to Penzance Hospital.

The pilot said it's not often we take off with seven people and land with eight.

Good job, everyone!

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
If you knew the woman I used to be married too, then you'd know I can handle verbal abuse.

I appreciate the support. Thanks.

In all honesty, it's been pretty good most of the time on this discussion, and although there might have been one or two instances of below the belt hits, it's been pretty civil.

I admire your ability to let things slide and to not hold grudges. Not like myself. Not like myself at all.

I also admire your ability to extent the hand of friendship to the other side and to not see them as enemies, even after all the abuse. Again, most unlike myself.

Casting an eye ahead, May is unlikely to survive Brexit or non-Brexit. The party will want shot of her either way. Unlike the Labour Party, they are reasonably efficient at getting rid of leaders, and frankly? I think she might well have had enough by then. I daresay she regrets being the first to chug the poison chalice now. With her gone, the Tories can attempt to contest the next election on a tabula rasa basis.

So the question has to be, who will the next Tory leader be? My bet is either Amber Rudd or Sajid Javid.


On the other foot, Corbyn will likely be frontrunning the next election, but has shown himself woefully incapable of doing...well, much of anything. Except perhaps holding a placard. He's a radical liberal reliant upon a hard leftist support group that's gradually taken control of the Labour bureaucracy (the NEC, etc).

But they're starting to get sick of him and his incompetence. The fact that they used him as the figurehead to infiltrate and collect power like they did has become a double edged sword, because now they can't remove him. And Corbyn would rather go down on his sword nobly gesticulating about things like Israel than actually produce anything of relevance to the British public. It's driving them up the wall because he controls the head office and official policy which means they can't stop him. But all he does is sit there making bad fudge all day, and they never know what's going to come out the door in the latest shipment. McCluskey is chewing rocks, McDonnell is distancing himself, etc.

In a year or two's time, we'll probably be seeing May's successor run off against Corbyn, and I'd place good money on seeing a hung parliament with both parties on about 280 seats. We may well see the Lib Dems or the SNP become the kingmakers yet.

Rudd's majority is in the low hundreds... if she became PM and then lost her seat (even if a Tory/Tory-led coalition government was returned) she'd be gone straight away. I can't see the MPs selecting that precarious a leader.

Javid is a decent shout. Boris will undoubtedly run. I suppose whether a leave/remain candidate has a stronger case depends entirely on the circumstances of how the leadership contest comes about.

You're right in that they wouldn't risk leading their primary candidate in a slim majority, but if Rudd is selected as leader, they'll just swap her into running for a safe seat.


Boris has conflicting drives, so he may or may not run. He's severely unpopular after Brexit and only just left Government. Public memory is short, but not that short. He also doesn't have much support interally right now. The odds say he should bide his time and try the following round, but he's not getting any younger, and that's an uncertain prospect. So he might run, but his odds aren't great and he'll be driven to it by circumstance rather than preference.

Both Gove and Fox fantasise about being PM, so they'll run, but I doubt they could beat Rudd or Javid. Hunt is the most hated man in the government since Osborne left, so I doubt he'd make a play or have success if he did.

No, the only third Tory with the chops and pull for leadership would be Phillip Hammond. So Rudd, Javid, and Hammond; odds are we'll see one of them against Corbyn. I suspect Rudd or Javid would be better on the campaign trail and for image reasons. Being able to field a third female PM candidate, or the first ethnic minority one would be a slap in the face against Labour running yet another old white man after all. And I think both perform better in public than Hammond. But Hammond probably has firmer internal party support than either.

Do you give any credence to the spectre of entryism raised by Amber Rudd for one?

I've seen two different figures claimed for current Conservative membership -- 70,000 and 120,000. There's a suspiciously wide variation, but either way it is a very small number which would allow a leadership election to be swayed by ex-UKIP members joining the party to vote in a Hard Brexiteer.

That said, I'm not convinced Boris Johnson has the guts to be PM. I think he's wobbly about it.

 Ketara wrote:
Boris has conflicting drives, so he may or may not run.

That's true, he is always after his own best interests, sniping from the sidelines for £250k just for a column a week (and I'm sure that's not his only thing he gets paid for, excepting MPs pay) he might deem better than a lower paid PM job. On the other hand PMs tend to go on and get paid lots so he may see it as a short term pain - and also whether his own ego will let him not being a leader of the country.

He's severely unpopular after Brexit and only just left Government. Public memory is short, but not that short. He also doesn't have much support interally right now.

That's not what the Tories own polls show though.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/08/our-survey-next-tory-leader-johnson-more-than-triples-his-score-to-come-top-for-the-first-time-since-2016.html

This puts him on almost 50% more votes than his nearest rival Javid. The question is whether he can get enough MPs to support him through to the final two which is likely more problematic for him. Rudd is nowhere to be seen. What the link doesn't show is that about 25% 'stated none of the above' and the desire for someone to sweep them off their feet. However that's not likely before the next GE because they are fixed with the MPs they have. Hence to block Boris/Gove/Davis needs very careful plotting from the 'Remainer' side of things to block any of the hard Wrexit supporters, as only two of the top 7 (ignoring 'someone else') are Remain/soft Wrexit supporters.

If Boris has any sense he'll be trying to rally all the Hard Wrexiters to being supportive of one candidate. They do seem more organised than the Remainers / soft Wrexiters and when the leadership bid comes if they all rally around one candidate then it will be very difficult to stop internally for the Tory party. What will shoot hard Wrexiters in the foot is if they all start competing against each other (as in last time) leaving an (even more) incompetent Wrexiter like Andrea Leadsom. My suspicion is that the person that will win is the person Rees-Mogg supports if he continues the line of "I don't want to be PM".

 Kilkrazy wrote:
That said, I'm not convinced Boris Johnson has the guts to be PM. I think he's wobbly about it.

I think Boris wants the prestige of being PM without having to make any hard, historically-controversial, decisions or do any serious work. This is why he backed out of the last contest, knowing that leading the government through Brexit would be difficult and a disaster. His problem is that sort of era may not be anywhere near the horizon and he has to balance that with his own shelf life. Gove has been trying to appeal to the moderates recently so could be a contender. I can't see Hammond winning a contest at all. The man has no natural charisma, no apparent leadership qualities and is reportedly despised by the entire Eurosceptic wing of the party.

Can I get a Chris Grayling shout out?

My suspicion is that the person that will win is the person Rees-Mogg supports if he continues the line of "I don't want to be PM".

Indeed. He'll make a deal to support someone in order to get a senior cabinet spot, either Chancellor or Home Secretary. I'm tempted to think he'd support Boris more because he'd know some sort of gaffe would never be too far away and he'd then be in prime position.

 Riquende wrote:
The man has no natural charisma, no apparent leadership qualities...

So, a male Theresa May?

There's certainly some mileage in that. If you take over from Boris you'll look like a great leader in comparison, and it'd only be a matter of time before Boris did something that would require him to resign.

Herzlos wrote:
There's certainly some mileage in that. If you take over from Boris you'll look like a great leader in comparison, and it'd only be a matter of time before Boris did something that would require him to resign.

Thats like letting my 18 month old son drive my car and saying "Well, it's only a matter of time before he hits something that will stop him going any further". Yes, but what will he hit in the end and how much damage wil he do in the meantime.

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Riquende wrote:
The man has no natural charisma, no apparent leadership qualities...

So, a male Theresa May?

Jokes aside, that's a fair point. She is awful. But May was dropped in as a 'big-name' compromise candidate (for Remainers) and someone who could be relied upon to fail at a Brexit and so get the boot after a few years (for Leavers). She was only ever meant to be the Leavers' palate cleanser, a stop-gap patsy. There would be no point getting rid of her just to put the same sort of leader in her place.

Kilkrazy wrote:Do you give any credence to the spectre of entryism raised by Amber Rudd for one?

I've seen two different figures claimed for current Conservative membership -- 70,000 and 120,000. There's a suspiciously wide variation, but either way it is a very small number which would allow a leadership election to be swayed by ex-UKIP members joining the party to vote in a Hard Brexiteer.

The Tories are immediately protected by the fact that the MP's whittle it down to two candidates before the membership gets to decide. That stops a Corbyn scenario straight out of the bat. I also don't see this being an issue on account of the fact that whether a deal is arranged or not, I severely doubt May will leave (or get knifed) before the Brexit concern is done and dusted. Brexiteer or anti-brexiteer will scarcely matter at that stage. It'll be done on the basis of who can smack Corbyn back and lead the country to 'seize the future' or some other trite soundbite.

Kilkrazy wrote:That said, I'm not convinced Boris Johnson has the guts to be PM. I think he's wobbly about it.

Whirlwind wrote:

That's true, he is always after his own best interests, sniping from the sidelines for £250k just for a column a week (and I'm sure that's not his only thing he gets paid for, excepting MPs pay) he might deem better than a lower paid PM job. On the other hand PMs tend to go on and get paid lots so he may see it as a short term pain - and also whether his own ego will let him not being a leader of the country.

Riquende wrote:
I think Boris wants the prestige of being PM without having to make any hard, historically-controversial, decisions or do any serious work. This is why he backed out of the last contest, knowing that leading the government through Brexit would be difficult and a disaster

Boris stopped short last time because he knew he'd lose before he started/ He had no cabinet experience to speak of and had only just rejoined the HoC. He's got the foreign office experience under his belt now which gives a launchpad, but his next largest problem is that the Tory MP's are pragmatic in leaders, if nothing else. He's a toxic asset. Not only are most of them leery about his actual his actual capability beyond self-aggrandisement; he'd be in the same position as May. That is to say, a controversial holdover from the Brexit period.

Whirlwind wrote:

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/08/our-survey-next-tory-leader-johnson-more-than-triples-his-score-to-come-top-for-the-first-time-since-2016.html

As you yourself state later on, the MP's are the ones who plonk him up for membership vote, and I honestly don't think he commands anywhere near enough support to reach the top two in the next few years. The fact David Davis , a man who is too old and literally doesn't want to be leader anymore, is in there says a lot about the accuracy of that poll in actually predicting who the next one will be.

Can I get a Chris Grayling shout out?

I think he's in the same camp as Gove and Fox, but less ambitious.

 Steve steveson wrote:

Herzlos wrote:
There's certainly some mileage in that. If you take over from Boris you'll look like a great leader in comparison, and it'd only be a matter of time before Boris did something that would require him to resign.

Thats like letting my 18 month old son drive my car and saying "Well, it's only a matter of time before he hits something that will stop him going any further". Yes, but what will he hit in the end and how much damage wil he do in the meantime.

Indeed it is. However if you're not bothered about the damage it'll cause*, it's a pretty sound plan.

*Because you either don't care about common people or have enough money to weather the gakstorm. 2 of JRM's finer qualities.


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 Ketara wrote:

As you yourself state later on, the MP's are the ones who plonk him up for membership vote, and I honestly don't think he commands anywhere near enough support to reach the top two in the next few years. The fact David Davis , a man who is too old and literally doesn't want to be leader anymore, is in there says a lot about the accuracy of that poll in actually predicting who the next one will be.

Lots of Tories claim they don't want to be leader and then run for it, and you can't trust a thing Davis says.

Herzlos wrote:

Lots of Tories claim they don't want to be leader and then run for it, and you can't trust a thing Davis says.

He did run for leader. He lost to Cameron. He's now 70 years old. By the next election, he'll be older. He wouldn't make it, and he knows it. Christ, he didn't even have enough pull to get into Cameron's cabinet.

The age of Gladstonian political dominance passed a century ago.

 Ketara wrote:

Can I get a Chris Grayling shout out?

I think he's in the same camp as Gove and Fox, but less ambitious.

Please, that's massively overexaggerating his competency. He's the person most like the Simpsons' depiction of Gerald Ford I've ever seen:

 Ketara wrote:

Whirlwind wrote:

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/08/our-survey-next-tory-leader-johnson-more-than-triples-his-score-to-come-top-for-the-first-time-since-2016.html

As you yourself state later on, the MP's are the ones who plonk him up for membership vote, and I honestly don't think he commands anywhere near enough support to reach the top two in the next few years. The fact David Davis , a man who is too old and literally doesn't want to be leader anymore, is in there says a lot about the accuracy of that poll in actually predicting who the next one will be.

I think it is more a representation of the type of voter support that is currently within the Tory party, we don't know who will stand up in the competition, however those voters will go somewhere and likely support in the majority who that individual also wants in. Regardless of who actually ends up in the last two I would expect the Davis/Boris/RMogg group all to swing behind one candidate and the Javid/Rudd/etc group to swing behind that group at a simplistic level. If there is a general push for ex UKIPs to join the conservatives then that will only favour the hard Wrexit group the longer that May stays in control (because it gives more time for people to get over the three month hurdle).

If we assume that there are about 100 hard Brexiters and they all swing behind one candidate then it will difficult for the Tories to stop that person getting through to the final vote. There are only 316 Tory MPs that means that getting to the last two in this scenario would mean a very carefully orchestrated situation where 108ish have to split equally to push Bozo out of the way. Gove is the one to watch. If he splits the hard Wrexiters then that gives the opportunity for the Remainers/soft Wrexiters to push them both out. Gove isn't tarnished in the same way as Boris. Both his attempts for power are much more subtle but he is much more competent than the buffoonery of Bozo. He also has the advantage in that he is living in the coat tails of the plastics issue. Gove can therefore persuade less hard Wrexiters to support either himself or Bozo because of this. The thought of Gove as PM though in some ways is much more terrifying than Bozo.

My postulation would be in the current circumstances the RMogg is the king maker. He'll decide who will lead the campaign (again assuming he doesn't throw his hat into the ring). If then Boris and Gove support this (and if Davis also supports this) then the rest of the Tory party will be hard pressed to stop it.



Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Riquende wrote:


Please, that's massively overexaggerating his competency. He's the person most like the Simpsons' depiction of Gerald Ford I've ever seen:

Spoiler:

I wouldn't count him out. After all regardless of how badly he messes things up he still seems to survive. The Tories might think he might be the perfect person for the mess that is Wrexit.

May has well documented health problems, so I agree with others saying that she'll be out in a year or two, one way or another.

As for Rudd, I'd remind people that she was damaged by Windrush, and if you read Private Eye, the Rudd family is up to their necks in questionable financial dealings. But then again, that's par for the course in British politics these days, so I doubt if people other than the likes of us, would notice or care.


Bojo or Mogg is the man the grassroots want, but that would petrify Tory top brass who control the party levers and despise those two. In the midst of the crossfire, they'd probably get shot down and thus:

Pave the way for Jeremy Bloody Hunt!!!!

I'm sorry to say this people, but Hunt is going to win!

The man is bullet-proof. Scandal slides off him like gak off a shovel. He's close to the Murdochs. He's Cameron Mk.II

He believes in nothing, so the SPADs and the think tanks can get to him. He's the mythical centre ground that Middle England loves, and business doesn't lose sleep over.

He's beige, he's dull, he won't scare the horses, he'll maintain the corrupt and cosy status quo. And the powers that be will love him for it.

It's Hunt for leader, people...

Noooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!

I nearly made a Freudian slip there.

Also, Norman Bettison isn’t going to face charges over his conduct in the Hillsborough disaster: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-45258766

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/9702490/Next+Prime+Minister.html

have to say I think it'd be Gove.

he'd get the blessing of Murdoch and the Daily Mail crew.

 reds8n wrote:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/9702490/Next+Prime+Minister.html

have to say I think it'd be Gove.

he'd get the blessing of Murdoch and the Daily Mail crew.

Gove stabbed Bojo in the back, and is generally seen as the weasel type. Tory grassroots, the Brexit types, see Gove as rolling up the white flag to the Chequers deal and the EU.

It's still Hunt for me. He'll let the others knock lumps out of each other, and then ooze his way into Downing Street when the opposition is badly wounded and exhausted...

How else do you explain Hunt's survival? At any other time in recent British politics, he'd be cast out by now, and be lucky to get a gig on Celebrity Big Brother.

And yet, he here he is smoothing his way into the FO.

Hunt knows where the bodies are buried.

Hunt is the most hated member of the British government after the NHS and transport debacles. The reason he hasn't been cast out is because the Tories need someone to play axeman/public hate figure, and he got picked. It's not through any particular competency or popularity of his own.

That in turn makes him untenable as a prospective candidate though, because nobody in the public will vote for him. What the Tories think of him personally is irrelevant, because they'll be selecting the leader in line with who it is they think will be able to maintain them in power. And Hunt is not that man.

Rees-Mogg has little pull in the party on his own accord. It's why he never really had a profile pre-Brexit beyond one or two entertaining soundbites. He's archaic. The only reason he has any power now is because the government's majority is so tenuous that even the dozen votes him and his mates hold is serious. The minute you're looking at the next leader/election, that minor momentary advantage fizzles out. He's a backbencher with minor media attention due to current events, and that will pass along with those events.

Gove is clumsy. He's made a lot of enemies internally and externally with his various shennanigans. I think he'd like to be PM, and may well toss his hat in the ring. But like Fox, he's got too much dragging him down and not enough clout. I doubt he'll make the final two.

and was also chief whip.......

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:


Gove stabbed Bojo in the back, and is generally seen as the weasel type. Tory grassroots, the Brexit types, see Gove as rolling up the white flag to the Chequers deal and the EU.

On the other hand he probably rescued the Tories from a Bozo being PM - if he had continued to support him then you would probably have had a run off between May and Bozo.

It's still Hunt for me. He'll let the others knock lumps out of each other, and then ooze his way into Downing Street when the opposition is badly wounded and exhausted...

I think we can confidently say that once we are to the last two, if it is in the next year or so, it will go to the hardest Wrexit leaning candidate. The question really is who gets to the last two. The hard Wrexiters appear a lot more organised and forceful in getting what they want. Whether that will continue into a leadership contest is diffiuclt to say. It really comes down to whether individuals will fall in line (so no Gove stabbing people in the back) with the group RMogg heads. Any division likely leads to 2 softers Wrexiters/remainers. I imagine that this summer is a lot of people running around doing deals.


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 Ketara wrote:


Gove is clumsy. He's made a lot of enemies internally and externally with his various shennanigans. I think he'd like to be PM, and may well toss his hat in the ring. But like Fox, he's got too much dragging him down and not enough clout. I doubt he'll make the final two.

Just to point out though we had A Leadsom in the last two previously. If the Tories can put her into almost a position where she became PM then I don't think we should be able to discount anyone.


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 reds8n wrote:
and was also chief whip.......

Usually I'd say this would count for something, but the Wrexit ideology on both sides I think throws this sort of thing into the air. You might have been thrashed previously but if an MP is dead set on a hard Wrexit they may choose to ignore previous transgressions.

This is one hell of a thread. Attempts to summarise the costs and benefits of EU membership.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1031867679613886464.html

Suffice to say it's a hell of a good deal. Is 'sovereignty' really worth giving this up???

For a lot of keen Leavers it is not about economic benefit, it is about English identity, which they believe to depend what is actually an illusion of sovreignty.

The blue passport is the classic example. Leaving the EU allows us to have our beloved old style blue passport back, except it doesn't because the EU allows us to have a blue passport anyway if we like. The EU requires us to adhere to the international standard laid down by the ICAA, but we will still have to follow after leaving the EU if we want our passports to work.

Where is the sovereignty?

It seems to me we'd be more internationally relevant if we were a key player in the world's largest trading block.

North Korea has 'sovereignty' but other than Trump and his comparing dick size with Kim no-one really gives a damn about them.

But but but... Blooo passports and bendy bananas!

I have not seen a rational reason for leaving. Only stuff about sovereignty, with no explanation of what that means, complaints about how the EU is corrupt, with no evidence other than our failing to engage with elections, talk of taking our fishing grounds back (ignoring that we need a market to sell the fist to, or that it is a tiny part of our economy) and stuff about the ECHR, which we will still be subject to. Oh and something about money we are sending to the EU, which it turns out is far less than leaving will cost us.

I have not seen a single reason to leave other tha. “I don’t like the EU”.

So, the argument is along the lines of -
'I don't want a piece of the pie! I want a whole pie!
'But the pie is going to be smaller than the piece of pie we used to have?'
'Yes, but it will be our pie!'

That about sum up the economic side?

The Auld Grump

Can I ask Remain supporters a serious question: what have you got against sovereignty?

For two years, it's been a stick to attack Leave with, and not just on Dakka, but across Remain suporting media in general.

No offence to you lot, but your attacks often come across as...well...illiberal...

The ability of the people to have a say in the make up of insutitions that affect them the most: government, courts, police etc etc

Is the most fundamental thing in our Democracy. In my book, it trumps everything else.

It's why we had a civil war, the Chartists, the suffragettes, the Independent Labour Party etc etc

Is business and economy important? Of course, but it's not the be all and end all.

You forget that pre-EU, every hard won right had to be wrestled from the money men. If it were up to business, we'd all be doing 12 hour shifts down coal mines for 1p an hour.

Now this is the part where somebody comes along and say, when do I get to vote for the Queen of the Lords?

If it were up to me, they would be scrapped, but ask yourself this: what's easier?

One country changing itself, or one country wanting to change the EU, but needing 27 other nations and 500 million people to do so?




Automatically Appended Next Post:

Crispy78 wrote:
This is one hell of a thread. Attempts to summarise the costs and benefits of EU membership.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1031867679613886464.html

Suffice to say it's a hell of a good deal. Is 'sovereignty' really worth giving this up???

It is worth giving up. And no offence to you or other American dakka members, but you forget your own history.

When you won the Revolution, you were bankrupt, improverished, and barely had two pennies to rub together.

But would the Founding Fathers have traded their freedom away for the comfort blanket of a good economy and British rule?

Feth no x 1000