Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:


It's not often I agree with you, but you're 100% right this time.

I'd say that the vote gives a very mixed message if UK wants to Brexit at all.

A quick question that I'd like some domestic opinions on:

What does it mean for the UK and Brexit if there's a Labour-DUP coalition?

 Lithlandis Stormcrow wrote:
A quick question that I'd like some domestic opinions on:

What does it mean for the UK and Brexit if there's a Labour-DUP coalition?

You mean Con -DUP coalition right?

Cons are going for a minority government with support (but not coalition) with DUP.

Brexit goes ahead as planned I guess?

It's likely that there will be another General Election within the year. Could be 1974 all over again.

That's a good point, because all those Scottish Tory MPs won't be able to vote on a lot of stuff because of EVEL.

According to the BBC numbers the Tories have a much healthier lead just considering England.
297 MPs to 235 of everyone else combined in fact. (1 left to declare due to lazy vote counters :-p)

 Kroem wrote:

That's a good point, because all those Scottish Tory MPs won't be able to vote on a lot of stuff because of EVEL.

According to the BBC numbers the Tories have a much healthier lead just considering England.
297 MPs to 235 of everyone else combined in fact. (1 left to declare due to lazy vote counters :-p)

Still a disaster for My, whatever way you look at it. The 'serious' politician got less than Call Me Dave's 2nd hand car salesman pitch.

Captyn_Bob wrote:

 Lithlandis Stormcrow wrote:
A quick question that I'd like some domestic opinions on:

What does it mean for the UK and Brexit if there's a Labour-DUP coalition?

You mean Con -DUP coalition right?

Cons are going for a minority government with support (but not coalition) with DUP.

Brexit goes ahead as planned I guess?

Apologies. Wrote the wrong party.

I do mean Con-DUP.

I'd say that the vote gives a very mixed message if UK wants to Brexit at all.

I think that is a bit of a stretch and I am a remainer! Both Labour and Conservative are firmly in favour of Brexit, between them they got the lions share of the vote.

The fact that SNP, who are vocally anti Brexit, lost so many votes would lead me to conclude the opposite i.e. that many remainers ahave come to terms with Brexit in some form.

No, I'd be pretty certain that the SNP drop is due to "we don't want a second independence referendum" rather than the EU referendum. Scotland was majority remain.

So, putting aside the bonkers idea of the DUP going into coalition with Labour, which won't happen regardless of how funny it is, how long do you think it will take the DUP and Tory party to fall out so acrimoniously that the entire edifice comes crashing down again? 1 week? 2? Couple months? A year?

After 'Corbyn spoke to the IRA every day for decades because he's terrorist-loving commie maniac', I'll be looking forward to the press relelntlessly drawing attention to the days when later DUP politicians set up Ulster Resisitance and were smuggling RPGs into mainland Britain with the UVF.

For what it's worth, I think bringing people who have abandoned violence in favour of diplomacy into politics is a good thing, but in the interests of balance and all that.

 Graphite wrote:
No, I'd be pretty certain that the SNP drop is due to "we don't want a second independence referendum" rather than the EU referendum. Scotland was majority remain.

So, putting aside the bonkers idea of the DUP going into coalition with Labour, which won't happen regardless of how funny it is, how long do you think it will take the DUP and Tory party to fall out so acrimoniously that the entire edifice comes crashing down again? 1 week? 2? Couple months? A year?

Yes I agree with that, but it does indicate that Brexit is not seen as the most decisive issue unlike the predictions. Unless Labour changes their stance on Brexit then I don't see how we can stay in tbh.

Everyone said a similar thing about the coalition with the Lib Dems as well though remember?
The DUP and the Conservatives have been working together throughout this parliament and are used to negotiating with each other, only five of the DUP (other other opposition party MPs) have to abstain for 319 to be a flat majority by my sums, so I think a Conservative-DUP government could be quite stable.

The more ambitious policies such as the expansion of Grammar Schools and reinstatement of the right to hunt foxes with dogs might have to fall by the wayside though.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/tories-hoping-for-constructive-relationship-with-creationist-homophobes-who-think-pope-is-satan-20170609129202

There is going to be a degree of... re-education about Northern Irish politics.

Oh yes. Yes there will.

I've been really quite cheerful all morning, can't think why.

Might have something to do with Paul Nuttall getting comprehensively, and humiliating smashed in my constituency. Or, it could be May having gambled, and lost, bit of an echo around here? Or it could be that a disgruntled tory party, propped up by a minor, but inconvenient party, is going to have to face the music of their decisions for the next 5 years. Or it could be the surge in young voters and UKIP returnees vindicating the left swing of the labour party and the possible end of blairism in Labour?

Or it could be the fact that the sun is shining, and I had a great nights sleep.

All in all, things are looking up.

 Kroem wrote:

 Graphite wrote:
No, I'd be pretty certain that the SNP drop is due to "we don't want a second independence referendum" rather than the EU referendum. Scotland was majority remain.

So, putting aside the bonkers idea of the DUP going into coalition with Labour, which won't happen regardless of how funny it is, how long do you think it will take the DUP and Tory party to fall out so acrimoniously that the entire edifice comes crashing down again? 1 week? 2? Couple months? A year?

Yes I agree with that, but it does indicate that Brexit is not seen as the most decisive issue unlike the predictions. Unless Labour changes their stance on Brexit then I don't see how we can stay in tbh.

Everyone said a similar thing about the coalition with the Lib Dems as well though remember?
The DUP and the Conservatives have been working together throughout this parliament and are used to negotiating with each other, only five of the DUP (other other opposition party MPs) have to abstain for 319 to be a flat majority by my sums, so I think a Conservative-DUP government could be quite stable.

The more ambitious policies such as the expansion of Grammar Schools and reinstatement of the right to hunt foxes with dogs might have to fall by the wayside though.

Much as I voted for them. I do believe that the DUP will exert a vital moderating influence and curb things like the disagreeable fox hunting and other polices.

 jhe90 wrote:

Much as I voted for them. I do believe that the DUP will exert a vital moderating influence and curb things like the disagreeable fox hunting and other polices.

The climate change-denying, ex-terrorist, women-hating, homophobic bigots are going to be a moderatong influence?

nfe wrote:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/tories-hoping-for-constructive-relationship-with-creationist-homophobes-who-think-pope-is-satan-20170609129202

It's scary how close too the truth this is abut the DUP, I really think the Conservatives are going down a slippery slope openly aligning themselves with them. While politicians in the North are generally quite brash and incompetent the DUP reach whole new levels, just last year one of their MLA's stood up and proudly declared he didn't know AID's existed in the heterosexual community.

This coupled with the fact that in about a months time they will have their annual hate fest consisting of celebrating a battle against Catholics a few hundred years ago and burning pictures of political opponents, it truly will be an eye opening few weeks for those in Britain.

Jesus Christ. Knock me down with a feather. This is a political upset and a half. I went to bed at 3am, and didn't expect to wake up to this.

We are deeply, deeply in the cacky. I would place good money on another election within a year.

 r_squared wrote:
I've been really quite cheerful all morning, can't think why.

Might have something to do with Paul Nuttall getting comprehensively, and humiliating smashed in my constituency. Or, it could be May having gambled, and lost, bit of an echo around here? Or it could be that a disgruntled tory party, propped up by a minor, but inconvenient party, is going to have to face the music of their decisions for the next 5 years. Or it could be the surge in young voters and UKIP returnees vindicating the left swing of the labour party and the possible end of blairism in Labour?

Or it could be the fact that the sun is shining, and I had a great nights sleep.

All in all, things are looking up.

You could possibly add the fact that Rupert Murdoch is reportedly very, very angry to that list. It's definitely one of my reasons to be cheerful currently.

 gianlucafiorentini123 wrote:
This coupled with the fact that in about a months time they will have their annual hate fest consisting of celebrating a battle against Catholics a few hundred years ago and burning pictures of political opponents, it truly will be an eye opening few weeks for those in Britain.

Usually I'm in Israel for the 12th, but this year I'll be at home. Right in time for the renewed viguour with which bigots will march past my flat singing about wading in my blood. Happy days!

 r_squared wrote:
I've been really quite cheerful all morning, can't think why.

Might have something to do with Paul Nuttall getting comprehensively, and humiliating smashed in my constituency. Or, it could be May having gambled, and lost, bit of an echo around here? Or it could be that a disgruntled tory party, propped up by a minor, but inconvenient party, is going to have to face the music of their decisions for the next 5 years. Or it could be the surge in young voters and UKIP returnees vindicating the left swing of the labour party and the possible end of blairism in Labour?

Or it could be the fact that the sun is shining, and I had a great nights sleep.

All in all, things are looking up.

I agree with all of this, but I'm tempering that with an exceedingly deep concern about the political crapstorm that's about to ensue. We last had this in the 70's, and it was crucifying for the good governance of the country. Harold Wilson's majority of 3 leading to a re-election, every vote becomes a vote of no confidence, the shattering of the Lib/Lab pact.....

With Brexit looming, this could go seriously fething wrong.

 Ketara wrote:
Jesus Christ. Knock me down with a feather. This is a political upset and a half. I went to bed at 3am, and didn't expect to wake up to this.

We are deeply, deeply in the cacky. I would place good money on another election within a year.

I made it to 5.30 - what changed was - as you said, early northern results looked strong for the Tories, better than the exit poll, and so if that was reflected in the south, 40 seat Tory majority. Then that totally failed to happen, the swing from UKIP to Labour / Tories averaging closer to 50/50 than 30/70 in most areas. And now we have a bit of a pickle

nfe wrote:

 jhe90 wrote:

Much as I voted for them. I do believe that the DUP will exert a vital moderating influence and curb things like the disagreeable fox hunting and other polices.

The climate change-denying, ex-terrorist, women-hating, homophobic bigots are going to be a moderatong influence?

I know very little on the DUP I admit, but I was hoping they might.. Now guess I'm wrong.
Full conservative can be bad... But moderated its less toxic and more agreeable and rational.

It needs something even I admit to keep it from lurching to its hardcore back bench.
Yes I did vote conservative and yes I do believe they can lurch too far right. Like I believe labour can push too far into the left at times.

I'm not upset about it.

Theresa May won't be calling another election. She took a risk and it backfired. She effectively committed suicide. It would be unbelievably dumb to try it again.

Another Tory leader might try it. But I'd advise against it. It looks like their pensioner vote has been damaged and the youth are waiting at the gates to take more scalps. And good on them, too.

As for Brexit, if this puts it in jeopardy... excellent.

 jhe90 wrote:
I do believe that the DUP will exert a vital moderating influence

This may be the funniest political quote of the year so far.

(Not knocking you for voting for them, BTW - but I'm glad to be at one remove from the hellish snakepit of Northern Irish politics)

Either May builds a government, or we're back to the polls. Even if Corbyn allies with the SNP and and the Lib Dems right now, he can't match Tory numbers. It's either an exceedingly shaky coalition with the Irish MP's, or we'll be back at the ballot booths in a month.

May can't survive another campaign. The knives will be out. So who will succeed in that scenario? I genuinely have no idea right now.

The climate change-denying, ex-terrorist, women-hating, homophobic bigots are going to be a moderatong influence?

Come on now. yes the DUP hold some social views we disagree with , but being dismissive and contemptuous about a party that increased its vote share amongst Northern Irish voters is equally bad in my book.
The influence that the DUP puts them in a strong negotiating position but I can;t imagine that they will be allowed to dictate a conservative government's social policy.

I think Jeremy Corbyn demonstrated excellently in his campaign that being constructive and refusing to launch personal attacks on your opponents is a much better way to talk about politics, and if this is what the politic landscape is going to look like in the UK then we need to start trying harder to understand each others viewpoints.

As for the DUP, it doesn't shock me at all that the only party the Tories can rely upon are even more vile than they are.

Anti-abortion, anti-science, homophobic racists.

Another thought is what this means for the Labour party. The Hard-right has run into a lot of problems lately with their attempts to take over in the local party branches. I don't doubt that this is going to give them a massive boost.

We'll likely see the Labour party going more left-wing I believe. The centrists are going to get hammered.

I reckon Cable will replace Farron shortly, on the Lib Dem front.

 Kroem wrote:

The climate change-denying, ex-terrorist, women-hating, homophobic bigots are going to be a moderatong influence?

Come on now. yes the DUP hold some social views we disagree with , but being dismissive and contemptuous about a party that increased its vote share amongst Northern Irish voters is equally bad in my book.

Nah, I'll stay plenty contemptuous of people who literally march past my door singing songs about wading in my blood. Gets your goat a bit, that. Not to mention their views on women and homosexuals, their denial of science, or their deals with Saudi arms smugglers.

The influence that the DUP puts them in a strong negotiating position...

I actually think it weakens it.