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I think Uber will be done way with. The logic of a nationwide car public transport system operating on big data AI software doesn't lend itself to private ownership by a single company.
I think a lot of people would still own a car, but they would rent it out on the public transport network when they weren't using it.
For example, I drive to Oxford every morning and park in the Park & Ride, and cycle into the city centre. In the evening I reverse that journey. I only need the car for an hour and a half each weekday. The car sits in the car park for at least nine hours a day. It would suit me very well if people would rent it out for local journeys during the day, so long as it was back in the car park by the time I want to go home.
It would be like an AirBnB for cars.
All that being said, one reaction to the announcement of the ban of conventional ICE vehicles from 2040 is that electric cars still produce harmful pollution from brake and tyre wear, and road surface wear, so the country just needs fewer cars. This also helps with road and car park congestion.
Car ownership on the whole probably will decline, because a good sharing system would be a lot more financial viable for most people.
All that being said, one reaction to the announcement of the ban of conventional ICE vehicles from 2040 is that electric cars still produce harmful pollution from brake and tyre wear, and road surface wear, so the country just needs fewer cars. This also helps with road and car park congestion.
Exactly. Apparently electric cars are as bad as ICE when it comes to particle pollution.
I think purpose built electric vehicles will be made lighter to help with range, and this will also help with reduction of wear and tear particle emissions.
For example the BMW i3 is one of the first modern cars designed from the ground up as an electric vehicle. It's got an aluminium chassis and passenger cell frame. The body shell is carbon fibre composite, much lighter than steel.
All that being said, one reaction to the announcement of the ban of conventional ICE vehicles from 2040 is that electric cars still produce harmful pollution from brake and tyre wear, and road surface wear, so the country just needs fewer cars. This also helps with road and car park congestion.
Exactly. Apparently electric cars are as bad as ICE when it comes to particle pollution.
He's trying to claim tyre and brake dust will become more of a problem than exhaust emissions, because current diesels produce barely (due to the particulate filters) any and (presumably) EV's are heavier so harder on tyres and brakes. But most EVs will have regenerative braking so actually use the brake pads less, and there's no way the increased tyre wear will produce more than the ICE's. He's also only talking about particulates and not emissions in general.
With cab drivers up in arms against Uber, think about what will happen when Uber does away with drivers themselves.
It wouldn't just be the cab drivers. Why bother waiting for a bus(or possibly even a train), when you can summon a self driving car that will drop you exactly where you want to go? And all with the bonus of not having to risk getting stuck near the crazy/drunk/stinker/creeper/screaming child. Add in all the people that deliver everything from oil to pizza and that's a lot of people with a redundant skill set looking for work. On top of that the industries that rely on private car ownership(everything from car showrooms to companies that make air fresheners) would take a big hit as less people bother to own there own vehicle.
A lot of people will still want to own their own vehicle for whatever reason, like convenience (keeping stuff like car seats or buggys in the car). They may just share wider across families. For instance, I can probably share a car with my wife and parents without any conflicts 99% of the time, so we could share a car between 4 of us rather than having a car each. I doubt my parents (60's) would ever buy into the idea of using a robot taxi for everything.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/08/11 08:15:16
All that being said, one reaction to the announcement of the ban of conventional ICE vehicles from 2040 is that electric cars still produce harmful pollution from brake and tyre wear, and road surface wear, so the country just needs fewer cars. This also helps with road and car park congestion.
Exactly. Apparently electric cars are as bad as ICE when it comes to particle pollution.
He's trying to claim tyre and brake dust will become more of a problem than exhaust emissions, because current diesels produce barely (due to the particulate filters) any and (presumably) EV's are heavier so harder on tyres and brakes. But most EVs will have regenerative braking so actually use the brake pads less, and there's no way the increased tyre wear will produce more than the ICE's. He's also only talking about particulates and not emissions in general.
It says they do?
I am pleased to set the record straight on this issue. I made it clear when talking to E&T that I was basing my comments on a paper by VRJH Timmers and PAJ Achten, published recently in the journal Atmospheric Environment, ‘Non-exhaust PM emissions from electric vehicles’. Timmers and Achten report the weight of a number of electric vehicles in comparison with their internal combustion engine equivalent. In all cases, the weight of the electric vehicle was greater, the range being from 14.6 per cent to 28.7 per cent heavier. Non-exhaust emissions from road vehicles arise from brake wear, tyre and road surface wear, and resuspension of road surface dusts. All are in general terms enhanced by increased vehicle weight. Timmers and Achten acknowledge the benefits of regenerative brakes on electric vehicles and made a conservative estimate of zero brake-wear emissions for electric vehicles. Hence, their claim that electric vehicle particulate matter emissions are comparable to those of conventional vehicles was based upon the greater tyre and road surface wear, and resuspension associated with a greater vehicle weight.
But anyway the electric revolution is here whether one likes it or not. An EV doesn't work for me because I take long trips and the kind of autonomy electric cars is just not enough but I can see my wife's car being an electric at some point.
I live within spitting distance of a petrochemical cluster so air quality is substandard anyway.
There are two solutions to the range problem of EVs. One is to put a small back-up generator in the car. This is what the BMW i3 extended range version has. Of course, the generator fuel is petrol now, but in the future it could be hydrogen.
The other solution is to improve the efficiency of the batteries, to give them larger capacity and faster charging. This is something that is happening all the time in mobile electrical gadgets, and it will happen in cars too.
In an ideal world, you would be able to cruise your EV 100-200 miles on the motorway, stop at a service station for a wee and a coffee, plug in the car when you park, and have it charged up by the time you've finished stretching your legs. I think that's where we will be in 20 years.
How hard is it to aquire hydrogen? I heard it was catch 22; the most abundant resource in the universe yet it's always stuck to something else...or itself (in the form of helium ).
Replacement batteries should be how EV cars would go. No charging, as the new set are fully charged.
Drive into a bay at the service station, and it drops out the old to fit in the new set.
But, are the new lot degraded?
Are they compatible?
etc.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/08/11 12:58:03
Skinnereal wrote: Replacement batteries should be how EV cars would go. No charging, as the new set are fully charged.
Drive into a bay at the service station, and it drops out the old to fit in the new set.
But, are the new lot degraded?
Are they compatible?
etc.
Also, whats to stop people from nicking this batteries?
Future War Cultist wrote: How hard is it to aquire hydrogen? I heard it was catch 22; the most abundant resource in the universe yet it's always stuck to something else...or itself (in the form of helium ).
Acquiring hydrogen is easy. It takes something like twice as much energy to split out of water than you get from burning it though. The bigger problem is the storage and transport of the compressed, highly explosive gas. Remember the Hindenberg?
Future War Cultist wrote: How hard is it to aquire hydrogen? I heard it was catch 22; the most abundant resource in the universe yet it's always stuck to something else...or itself (in the form of helium ).
Hydrogen is very easy to get. You just electrolyse water (using free, non-polluting renewable electricity. When you burn hydrogen the exhaust is just water.
The problem, as said above, is how to store the hydrogen in bulk because it has a boiling point of -253 degree C. There are two approaches to this. One is a conventional pressurised tank with lots of insulation. This is viable for bulk distribution, e.g. a tanker lorry, but less efficient in small vehicles.
The newer approach is to bind the hydrogen chemically to a metal substrate. This is still experimental. If it can be turned into an industrial process, it will be possible to make rechargeable hydrogen "battery" blocks. These miht be built into your car, or they might be swappable units.
Shadow Captain Edithrae asked what is to stop people from nicking batteries. The answer is the same sort of things that stop people from nicking cars or petrol or car radio units. In other words you can't 100% prevent it, but you can make it less desirable and more difficult, until you get it down to a tolerable level.
For example, no-one nicks satnavs out of modern cars because modern alarm/lock systems are really good and the satnav unit is built into the dashboard.
Kilkrazy wrote:I think purpose built electric vehicles will be made lighter to help with range, and this will also help with reduction of wear and tear particle emissions.
For example the BMW i3 is one of the first modern cars designed from the ground up as an electric vehicle. It's got an aluminium chassis and passenger cell frame. The body shell is carbon fibre composite, much lighter than steel.
Making the actual car out of fancy materials is one way to increase range. Another is to shovel more batteries in, which is roughly what Tesla do, IIRC.
BMW's forthcoming electric MINI will be the same car as the ICE versions, with only a different power source and drivetrain.
This week's Economist has a leader on the death of the internal combustion engine. They make the point that it will cause political changes as well as industrial.
A lot of oil is used for road vehicle fuel. In the USA it's over 60% of the usage. Once that drops to nearly zero, the Middle East is going to be in difficulties. Russia too, I imagine, though I think they export a lot of natural gas.
That said, the improvement of electrical power presumably may come to affect home cooking and heating as well as transport.
Skinnereal wrote: Replacement batteries should be how EV cars would go. No charging, as the new set are fully charged.
Drive into a bay at the service station, and it drops out the old to fit in the new set.
Also, whats to stop people from nicking this batteries?
Skinnereal wrote: Replacement batteries should be how EV cars would go. No charging, as the new set are fully charged.
Drive into a bay at the service station, and it drops out the old to fit in the new set.
Also, whats to stop people from nicking this batteries?
A big deposit. Like for camping-gas bottles.
A lot of that depends on weight. Batteries are the lightest of things.
Every mechanic I've talked to (and I've talked to a fair few) thinks that this idea has potential but they don't trust the government to do it properly.
I think the best idea are hybrid cars with small electric motors that deal with speeds of 10mph or less, then the petrol engine kicks in. It saves a lot of weight and storage issues that come with battery packs.
DS:90-S+G+++M++B-IPw40k03+D+A++/fWD-R++T(T)DM+ Warmachine MKIII record 39W/0D/6L
Skinnereal wrote: Replacement batteries should be how EV cars would go. No charging, as the new set are fully charged.
Drive into a bay at the service station, and it drops out the old to fit in the new set.
Also, whats to stop people from nicking this batteries?
A big deposit. Like for camping-gas bottles.
A lot of that depends on weight. Batteries are the lightest of things.
Every mechanic I've talked to (and I've talked to a fair few) thinks that this idea has potential but they don't trust the government to do it properly.
Tesla trialed the idea and reception was dismal. So if a single manufacturer couldn't get their early adopting, extremely brand loyal customers think about what will happen when they have to sit down and agree to industry standards.
Skinnereal wrote: Replacement batteries should be how EV cars would go. No charging, as the new set are fully charged.
Drive into a bay at the service station, and it drops out the old to fit in the new set.
Also, whats to stop people from nicking this batteries?
A big deposit. Like for camping-gas bottles.
A lot of that depends on weight. Batteries are the lightest of things.
Every mechanic I've talked to (and I've talked to a fair few) thinks that this idea has potential but they don't trust the government to do it properly.
I think the best idea are hybrid cars with small electric motors that deal with speeds of 10mph or less, then the petrol engine kicks in. It saves a lot of weight and storage issues that come with battery packs.
That's broadly how the Prius and similar vehicles work, though the speed from the electric drive is more than 10mph. We're already moving beyond that, though.
Right now there are three types of EV -- all-electric like Tesla, the Prius type of hybrid with a combined power train, and the new BMW 3i type hybrid which runs on electric all the time and has a back-up generator run on petrol.
The intention in the next 25 years is to get rid of all internal combustion and go 100% electric. There's no doubt that pure electric vehicles can deliver the same or better performance than ICE cars, except for range and the speed of refuelling.
The range/refuelling issue is a bit overblown, IMO. Most of the time we don't need to drive 200 miles, refuel in 10 minutes and drive another 200 miles. The times that we do, maybe we would be happy to drive 200 miles and refuel in 20 minutes.
To look at the other side of the coin, every time you stop to refuel your ICE car, it takes 5-10 minutes to find a petrol station, pull in, wait for a pump, fill the tank and then pay. Electric cars will be able to charge themselves while parked, and never need refuelling except in the case of the 400 mile journey I described above.
To look at the other side of the coin, every time you stop to refuel your ICE car, it takes 5-10 minutes to find a petrol station, pull in, wait for a pump, fill the tank and then pay. Electric cars will be able to charge themselves while parked, and never need refuelling except in the case of the 400 mile journey I described above.
That side of the coin also has interesting talking points. Who's going to put all those charging spots where cars will spend 30-40 minutes while taking less than a € worth of electric charging?
Petrol stations are ubiquitous because they service hundreds of cars an hour and each one of them takes maybe 40€ worth of fuel on average while sitting just 1-2 minutes on the spot.
We've seen already tesla chargers getting overcrowded, with lines up to two hours on busy locations during peak times. For sure shopping centers and others places with parking spaces that really want you to stay for a while will provide charging stations (like they do now) but has anyone looked at the cost of wiring even 1/4 of the parking spots at your average shopping mall?
That side of the coin also has interesting talking points. Who's going to put all those charging spots where cars will spend 30-40 minutes while taking less than a € worth of electric charging?
Petrol stations are ubiquitous because they service hundreds of cars an hour and each one of them takes maybe 40€ worth of fuel on average while sitting just 1-2 minutes on the spot.
Lots of people will want charging stations, because those people will likely spend more money in the 20 minutes they are there (fast charging should be done in well under 40), even if it's just a paper and a coffee. Supermarkets will want them, service stations will want them, offices will want them. Even petrol stations will want them - since you don't need access to so many pumps and can run cables, you can likely replace an 8-pump forecourt with at least 24 parking spaces with electric charging. Probably a lot more than that. So whilst it may take 3x longer to refuel you can get 3x as many cars in at a time.
The profit margin on fossil fuel is dismal as it is - like a couple of p/litre, so whilst they are spending £40 on fuel the petrol station is making less than £1 on it. A lot of their profit comes from the other stuff you buy whilst in there.
Cost is a big one - it's not going to be cheap to set up so many charging points anywhere, but they'll pay for themselves pretty quickly since the ongoing costs a lot lower (since you don't need to deal with tanks of explosive material, don't need to truck it in, don't need mechanical pumps).
Things look awful right now because the EV uptake is ahead of the infrastructure, but once the infrastructure catches up we'll wonder what the big deal was.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/08/14 09:09:40
That side of the coin also has interesting talking points. Who's going to put all those charging spots where cars will spend 30-40 minutes while taking less than a € worth of electric charging?
Petrol stations are ubiquitous because they service hundreds of cars an hour and each one of them takes maybe 40€ worth of fuel on average while sitting just 1-2 minutes on the spot.
Lots of people will want charging stations, because those people will likely spend more money in the 20 minutes they are there (fast charging should be done in well under 40), even if it's just a paper and a coffee. Supermarkets will want them, service stations will want them, offices will want them. Even petrol stations will want them - since you don't need access to so many pumps and can run cables, you can likely replace an 8-pump forecourt with at least 24 parking spaces with electric charging. Probably a lot more than that. So whilst it may take 3x longer to refuel you can get 3x as many cars in at a time.
And then there are multistory carparks... That's A LOT of extra revenue. I don't think it will be that long until virtually every parking bay has a charger.
The profit margin on fossil fuel is dismal as it is - like a couple of p/litre, so whilst they are spending £40 on fuel the petrol station is making less than £1 on it. A lot of their profit comes from the other stuff you buy whilst in there.
Gross margin for a petrol station is something more like 0,15-0,20€/L which is fine all things considered. Lower than most groceries, but higher than some high-tech products.
Setting up a domestic charge point costs something like 800 euro, even after economies of scale it will cost some serious money to wire all those parking spots.
Setting up a domestic charge point costs something like 800 euro, even after economies of scale it will cost some serious money to wire all those parking spots.
Today. That's going to drop going forward, and certainly when businesses start wanting to do tens of thousands of them.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/08/14 11:12:39
All sorts of people and organisations will put in charge points for all kinds of reasons.
In central Henley there are two charge points in the main supermarket car park, and two charge points in the car park of the main electric vehicle service centre. There are also two BMW 3i owners with domestic charge points in their drives.
You will be correct to say that two chargers for nearly 300 car parking spaces in the car park is not going to satisfy demand. But this is the beginning of a process that will be going on for the next 25 years.
The costs will be covered by various means. Road fund tax, increased parking charges when you use the charger, annual subscription to charging networks (there are several in the UK) and so on.
Automatically Appended Next Post: London's Garden Bridge officially abandoned. GOOD!
Kilkrazy wrote: All sorts of people and organisations will put in charge points for all kinds of reasons.
In central Henley there are two charge points in the main supermarket car park, and two charge points in the car park of the main electric vehicle service centre. There are also two BMW 3i owners with domestic charge points in their drives.
You will be correct to say that two chargers for nearly 300 car parking spaces in the car park is not going to satisfy demand. But this is the beginning of a process that will be going on for the next 25 years.
The costs will be covered by various means. Road fund tax, increased parking charges when you use the charger, annual subscription to charging networks (there are several in the UK) and so on.
Automatically Appended Next Post: London's Garden Bridge officially abandoned. GOOD!
Growth is holding steady, tourism is booming due to the weak pound, and our exports have never been better.
Brexit should have happened years ago!
"Our crops will wither, our children will die piteous
deaths and the sun will be swept from the sky. But is it true?" - Tom Kirby, CEO, Games Workshop Ltd
UK exports suffer biggest drop since Brexit vote, new ONS figures show
Goods export volumes fell 4.9 per cent in June, the biggest monthly fall since immediately after the 2016 Brexit vote
... this pretty much perfectly demonstrates the entire Brexit farce.
The poor man really has a stake in the country. The rich man hasn't; he can go away to New Guinea in a yacht. The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all
We love our superheroes because they refuse to give up on us. We can analyze them out of existence, kill them, ban them, mock them, and still they return, patiently reminding us of who we are and what we wish we could be.
"the play's the thing wherein I'll catch the conscience of the king,
That side of the coin also has interesting talking points. Who's going to put all those charging spots where cars will spend 30-40 minutes while taking less than a € worth of electric charging?
Petrol stations are ubiquitous because they service hundreds of cars an hour and each one of them takes maybe 40€ worth of fuel on average while sitting just 1-2 minutes on the spot.
Lots of people will want charging stations, because those people will likely spend more money in the 20 minutes they are there (fast charging should be done in well under 40), even if it's just a paper and a coffee. Supermarkets will want them, service stations will want them, offices will want them. Even petrol stations will want them - since you don't need access to so many pumps and can run cables, you can likely replace an 8-pump forecourt with at least 24 parking spaces with electric charging. Probably a lot more than that. So whilst it may take 3x longer to refuel you can get 3x as many cars in at a time.
And then there are multistory carparks... That's A LOT of extra revenue. I don't think it will be that long until virtually every parking bay has a charger.
Yep, I agree. People are looking at this all wrong. They are referring to the need to go to a petrol station and fill up, then talking about doing the same thing with EVs. No longer needed. Petrol stations are needed because you are pouring a flammable, degrading liquid in to your car that needs special handling and has only one use. We are not restricted in that way with electricity. You can put a charger just about anywhere with electricity, which is almost anywhere. There are some restrictions on some types of fast chargers that won't run on domestic voltages, but these are not huge.
You can charge an EV at home, or when you go shopping, or when you are at work. With an ICE you need to go to a specialist facility, stay with it the whole time and only during their opening hours. I think we are going to see a huge increase in the number of charging points over the next few years.
insaniak wrote: Sometimes, Exterminatus is the only option.
And sometimes, it's just a case of too much scotch combined with too many buttons...
UK exports suffer biggest drop since Brexit vote, new ONS figures show
Goods export volumes fell 4.9 per cent in June, the biggest monthly fall since immediately after the 2016 Brexit vote
... this pretty much perfectly demonstrates the entire Brexit farce.
No disrespect reds8n, but by now, according to hardcore Remainers (not blaming you) we were supposed to have been reduced to horse and carts for transport, and bartering for food supplies!
That has been the general narrative about Brexit.
The UK economy is not perfect, and I've long argued that on dakka, but these figures, plus the growth and tourism figures, are a welcome antidote to the doom mongering of Nick Clegg and Vince Cable who think we're going back to the Stone Age!
"Our crops will wither, our children will die piteous
deaths and the sun will be swept from the sky. But is it true?" - Tom Kirby, CEO, Games Workshop Ltd
UK exports suffer biggest drop since Brexit vote, new ONS figures show
Goods export volumes fell 4.9 per cent in June, the biggest monthly fall since immediately after the 2016 Brexit vote
... this pretty much perfectly demonstrates the entire Brexit farce.
No disrespect reds8n, but by now, according to hardcore Remainers (not blaming you) we were supposed to have been reduced to horse and carts for transport, and bartering for food supplies!
That has been the general narrative about Brexit.
The UK economy is not perfect, and I've long argued that on dakka, but these figures, plus the growth and tourism figures, are a welcome antidote to the doom mongering of Nick Clegg and Vince Cable who think we're going back to the Stone Age!
There were lies, exaggerations and general bullcrap on both sides of the debate. However, before anyone can claim that Brexit has been a success or a failure, just keep in mind that it hasn't actually happened yet.
).
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