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 Kilkrazy wrote:
As I understand it, the worst case scenario for a Hard Brexit is a 9% drop in GDP.

Assuming it's not that bad, we could be looking at a 4-5% fall in GDP assuming an average worth of bad effects.

Even that will be pretty bad.

I mean, no-one at all is predicting an upswing in the economy. That's all far in the future, even according to Brexiteers, because we need to get good trade deals worked out and ratified.

Unfortunately the vast majority of Brexiters are either hopeless optimists or wilfully ignorant. They believe trade deals are easy and all the delays are down to the EU. They are about to find out it’s not.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
And we're not gonna get them, because seriously - WTF do we have to offer?

One of our few remaining selling points was as a gateway to the EU :(

Herzlos wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
And we're not gonna get them, because seriously - WTF do we have to offer?

One of our few remaining selling points was as a gateway to the EU :(

You have rainy weather to offer! I'm sure it can be used for...something?

Herzlos wrote:


I don't think we'll see regions burnt to the ground or turn feral

I'm impressed that things have come so far that you're not certain of this

I don't think it's impossible for the UK to be a successful country outside the EU. Lots of other countries manage it and make trade deals and so on.

However I don't think it's certain to happen, for various reasons. Firstly because we have got to cope with the fallout from Brexit, which Canada for instance doesn't, and secondly because the UK has some serious economic problems already which are not the result of the EU and also are not necessarily shared by Canada and so on.

Worse, our recent national governance has been such an omnishambles that I have rather low confidence in our ability as a nation to find the leaders and executives to resolve the problems outlined above.

Hey, maybe if you ask nicely you can become a colony of Canada?

 Crazyterran wrote:
Hey, maybe if you ask nicely you can become a colony of Canada?

Are you Canadian? Must be nice to live in an independent country.

Yeah finland has now enjoyed it 100 years straight

IMO, one of the problems with Brexit, and society in general, is that we live in this 24hr hours news cycle, instant gratification, society.

We want it all, and we want it done 5 minutes ago.

We really need to come back to this in 12 months time, before we launch into snap judgements.




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Crazyterran wrote:
Hey, maybe if you ask nicely you can become a colony of Canada?

Yeah, but aren't you guys a colony of the USA these days?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I don't think it's impossible for the UK to be a successful country outside the EU. Lots of other countries manage it and make trade deals and so on.

However I don't think it's certain to happen, for various reasons. Firstly because we have got to cope with the fallout from Brexit, which Canada for instance doesn't, and secondly because the UK has some serious economic problems already which are not the result of the EU and also are not necessarily shared by Canada and so on.

Worse, our recent national governance has been such an omnishambles that I have rather low confidence in our ability as a nation to find the leaders and executives to resolve the problems outlined above.

The very fact that it's so difficult to leave the EU, is proof, if any were needed, that it was the right thing to do.

It's Hercules battling the Hydra. Cut off one head, three more grow back. Brexit is the fire that is needed to seal the stump.

Our political class have forgotten how to govern. Brexit is the swift , hard, boot to the rear that was badly needed.

I've always said this, and no man or woman on dakka can take me to task for this, but I've always said from the referendum campaign to day 1, that it wasn't going to be easy.

Yes, I agree with people that there was nothing stopping us from doing that, but to me, the situation had reached such an impasse, that a massive jolt like Brexit was the only way this nation could ready itself for the 21st century.

I'm not going to mention vision again

people know by know where I stand.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Steve steveson wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
As I understand it, the worst case scenario for a Hard Brexit is a 9% drop in GDP.

Assuming it's not that bad, we could be looking at a 4-5% fall in GDP assuming an average worth of bad effects.

Even that will be pretty bad.

I mean, no-one at all is predicting an upswing in the economy. That's all far in the future, even according to Brexiteers, because we need to get good trade deals worked out and ratified.

Unfortunately the vast majority of Brexiters are either hopeless optimists or wilfully ignorant. They believe trade deals are easy and all the delays are down to the EU. They are about to find out it’s not.

Nothing wrong with being optimistic. It was optimism that created the EU in the first place.

It's not Hercules battling The Hydra.

It's a squeaky voice teenager picking a fight with a Gang of Bikers to prove how well 'ard he is.

This is a fools errand. Why can't you just admit that?

Ready ourselves for the 21st Century by regressing back to the 1950's?

Sorry for the intrusion of a Texan in the land of Haggis but, will the recent foiled plot against May impact anything there?

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:


The very fact that it's so difficult to leave the EU, is proof, if any were needed, that it was the right thing to do.

The very fact it's so difficult to build a fission reactor in your back garden is proof, if any were needed, that it was the right thing to do.

Just because something is difficult doesn't mean it is the right thing to do. For an easy example which everyone can try at home, try to open a pull door by pushing it.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
It's not Hercules battling The Hydra.

It's a squeaky voice teenager picking a fight with a Gang of Bikers to prove how well 'ard he is.

This is a fools errand. Why can't you just admit that?

Ready ourselves for the 21st Century by regressing back to the 1950's?

DINLT votes Remain = Brexit

DINLT votes Leave = Brexit

DINLT doesn't vote = Brexit

Everybody on dakka votes Remain = Brexit.

etc etc etc

Let's be honest, it doesn't really matter what anybody on dakka thinks. Naturally of course, it's enjoyable to have conversations on a wide range of issues, but you're mistaking me for somebody who had 17 million vote on June 23rd, instead of the 1 vote.

@ DINLT

Just goes to show how pointless this thread is really.

 Frazzled wrote:
Sorry for the intrusion of a Texan in the land of Haggis but, will the recent foiled plot against May impact anything there?

It's opened up a constitutional can of worms. If one part of the UK can get a special deal, then why can't other parts?

It's hard to argue against that, whatever side you're on.

We have a government which couldn't find its rear without a map, compass, and a three man search party, which obviously doesn't help.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

We really need to come back to this in 12 months time, before we launch into snap judgements.

Normally I'd agree, but if we leave this gakshow unsupervised for a year, what do you think we'll get? Davis had essentially admitted he's still done no planning and may or may not have lied about having reports. It's hard to tell if he's actually done anything yet, and you want to leave him alone for 12 of the 16 months left to sort everything?

The very fact that it's so difficult to leave the EU, is proof, if any were needed, that it was the right thing to do.

Why? It's very hard to live off-grid, or only eating grains, doesn't mean it's a good idea. It just shows how tightly integrated into the EU we are. And to be fair, with a competent governing team with an idea of what it wanted to do, a mandate and a spine, they'd be making Brexit look easy.

It's Hercules battling the Hydra. Cut off one head, three more grow back. Brexit is the fire that is needed to seal the stump.

Nonsense. It's some clueless kids wandering off into the wilderness and wondering why every time they bumble past an obstacle they hit another one. They've hit absolutely no issues yet that we didn't predict 18 months ago.

Our political class have forgotten how to govern.

Yup, but...

Brexit is the swift , hard, boot to the rear that was badly needed.

How? They still clearly don't know how to govern, but we've now left the buck at them with no oversight. Things can only get worse.

I've always said this, and no man or woman on dakka can take me to task for this, but I've always said from the referendum campaign to day 1, that it wasn't going to be easy.

No-one doubts that. It was obviously going to be hard.

Yes, I agree with people that there was nothing stopping us from doing that, but to me, the situation had reached such an impasse, that a massive jolt like Brexit was the only way this nation could ready itself for the 21st century.

In what way are we getting anything ready for the 21st century? We're bucking pretty much every modern trend here.

Nothing wrong with being optimistic. It was optimism that created the EU in the first place.

Optimism and pragmatism are what created the EU, and it's worked well. You need more than just optimism to get something good at the end, like a plan, or idea, or something.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
@ DINLT

Just goes to show how pointless this thread is really.

I suppose you could say that about a lot of threads, but I suppose most threads are fun, and politics is often serious. But yeah, I agree with what you're saying.

I bear no ill will towards my fellow dakka members, regardless of what side they're on, and even the people I blocked

I wish my fellow dakka members good luck, hope they don't lose their jobs or homes, and wish them all the success in the world.

But we are where we are with Brexit, and there's nothing nobody can do about it on dakka.

At the risk of sounding like granpa Simpson, I was there in the 1980s when the gak hit the fan with Thatcher and the miners, and of course, when the Wall came tumbling down in Berlin.

Things seemed scary, things were up in the air, and the future was this unknown place full of hope and often dread.

Things calm down and often fix themselves. Let's see where we are in 12 months with Brexit.

The case for giving NI a special deal is pretty good, and rests on the factors of:

1. Land border with EU country.
2. Continuation of the Peace Process.
3. No land border with the rest of the UK.

It doesn't make sense in economic terms, but that is true about a lot of Brexit, leading to the calls by other regions for a "special" deal, which therefore might as well be a special deal for the whole of the UK.

Isn't our so-called government trying to negotiate permission to start negotiating a special deal at the moment?

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:


The very fact that it's so difficult to leave the EU, is proof, if any were needed, that it was the right thing to do.

The very fact it's so difficult to build a fission reactor in your back garden is proof, if any were needed, that it was the right thing to do.

Just because something is difficult doesn't mean it is the right thing to do. For an easy example which everyone can try at home, try to open a pull door by pushing it.

You've obviously never see my doors


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
The case for giving NI a special deal is pretty good, and rests on the factors of:

1. Land border with EU country.
2. Continuation of the Peace Process.
3. No land border with the rest of the UK.

It doesn't make sense in economic terms, but that is true about a lot of Brexit, leading to the calls by other regions for a "special" deal, which therefore might as well be a special deal for the whole of the UK.

Isn't our so-called government trying to negotiate permission to start negotiating a special deal at the moment?

London could have bought off Cardiff and Edinburgh by promising them a host of extra powers coming back from Brussels, but true to form, they fethed that up as well.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
The case for giving NI a special deal is pretty good, and rests on the factors of:

1. Land border with EU country.
2. Continuation of the Peace Process.
3. No land border with the rest of the UK.

It doesn't make sense in economic terms, but that is true about a lot of Brexit, leading to the calls by other regions for a "special" deal, which therefore might as well be a special deal for the whole of the UK.

Isn't our so-called government trying to negotiate permission to start negotiating a special deal at the moment?

Oh, and don't forget places like Grimsby voting Leave, then demanding the Government cough up those EU subsidies they've been enjoying. Because that's not extracting the Michael by any stretch of the imagination. Oh no. Not at all. Nor is it in anyway indicative of just how shockingly uninformed many Leave voters appear to have been.

Normally I'd agree, but if we leave this gakshow unsupervised for a year, what do you think we'll get? Davis had essentially admitted he's still done no planning and may or may not have lied about having reports. It's hard to tell if he's actually done anything yet, and you want to leave him alone for 12 of the 16 months left to sort everything?

@Herzlos

If you have an opposition that won't oppose, this is what happens. Corbyn has been getting away scot-free on Brexit. What is the Labour party's position?

I'm not blaming Labour for everything, but they ain't helping either.

We have Labour party members on this thread do we not? Perhaps they can raise this key issue at their next local branch meeting.

They've been demanding clarity. Clarity which can't be forthcoming because the Tories have no idea what they're doing.

Plus, what political party in their right mind would want to wrest this mess off the hands of the party that created it?

As I've said before. The sole saving grace of this debacle is that it's likely to finally destroy the Tory Party.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
If you have an opposition that won't oppose, this is what happens. Corbyn has been getting away scot-free on Brexit. What is the Labour party's position?

Corbyn offered to take over right after the GE and as far as I'm aware the offer is still open. Labour were proposing an economy-first Brexit (Brexit but avoiding anything that'd destroy the economy, so more than like EEA membership). I think Corbyn has also been giving May a pretty hard time about Brexit and their lack of direction at every possible opportunity.

To be fair, Brexit is such a gakshow I'm not surprised anyone wants to touch it. Labour are (politically) better off letting it go spectacularly wrong and then sweeping in to fix it. No-one really wants to be at the helm for this mess, as the only options they have are political suicide.

I'll say this to both Mad Doc and Herzlos.

I'm playing Devil's Advocate here, and I understand why Labour want the Tories to implode and be out of the reckoning for the next 10 years, but Labour could have had it all and propelled themselves to victory.

How? By playing the compromise card.

Labour could have said, yeah, we voted Leave, but it was 52/48, so we'll try and bring on board some moderate Remainers as well.

We do this by pushing the EFTA/EEA arrangement. it's not perfect, but it helps solve issues like Ireland.

Die-hard Remainers and Brexiteers won't like it, but there's a cross-party majority in the commons to get it through.

And most ordinary voters are in the middle, so they'd probably be happy. The EU is on our doorstep and is not going away, but we don't want the Euro, EU army, USE. whatever etc etc

This half-way house, compromise scenario, could have been the ultimate classic British fudge, and could have, and maybe still, win the day for Labour.

And it probably would have been negotiated by now as well.

I'll be honest and say this was a great fear of mine, that somebody might go for the above.

I honestly don't know why Labour didn't campaign the GE on that basis, I suspect they were just as caught out as everyone by the snap announcement.

With Corbyn being anti-EU and most of his party being pro-EU it's no doubt taken a long time to figure out a decent plan.

You're right they should be jumping up and down about a moderate Brexit.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:
Sorry for the intrusion of a Texan in the land of Haggis but, will the recent foiled plot against May impact anything there?

It's opened up a constitutional can of worms. If one part of the UK can get a special deal, then why can't other parts?

It's hard to argue against that, whatever side you're on.

We have a government which couldn't find its rear without a map, compass, and a three man search party, which obviously doesn't help.

i think he actually means :

https://news.sky.com/story/court-hears-alleged-plot-to-blow-up-no-10-gates-and-kill-theresa-may-11158712

but I've always said from the referendum campaign to day 1, that it wasn't going to be easy.

.... ..

what were you saying about the Khmer Rouge and people rewriting history ?

In days of yore, when we had a political class that could govern, Harold Wilson would have been all over that compromise like a bad rash.

I've always said that the comparison between Wilson and David Cameron is a worthwhile study.

Both were in charge of floundering governments. Both had a party divided by Europe, and both had a referendum on their hands.

One had the skill to navigate his way through, and the other couldn't be trusted with a rubber duck in a bath, and abandoned ship.




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 reds8n wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:
Sorry for the intrusion of a Texan in the land of Haggis but, will the recent foiled plot against May impact anything there?

It's opened up a constitutional can of worms. If one part of the UK can get a special deal, then why can't other parts?

It's hard to argue against that, whatever side you're on.

We have a government which couldn't find its rear without a map, compass, and a three man search party, which obviously doesn't help.

i think he actually means :

https://news.sky.com/story/court-hears-alleged-plot-to-blow-up-no-10-gates-and-kill-theresa-may-11158712

but I've always said from the referendum campaign to day 1, that it wasn't going to be easy.

.... ..

what were you saying about the Khmer Rouge and people rewriting history ?

I'm not re-writing history. When did I ever say it was going to be easy?

I've always said that whatever problems they were, would not be insurmountable to a nation that gave the world The Industrial Revolution and association football.

You effectively said it would be easy by saying we should have invoked article 50 the day after the referendum, completely ignoring all of the work that was required to prepare for the negotiations.

Herzlos wrote:
I honestly don't know why Labour didn't campaign the GE on that basis, I suspect they were just as caught out as everyone by the snap announcement.

With Corbyn being anti-EU and most of his party being pro-EU it's no doubt taken a long time to figure out a decent plan.

You're right they should be jumping up and down about a moderate Brexit.

Toe-In-The-Water.

They can't be the ones to deliver Brexit. They can't be the ones to deny Brexit.

The whole debacle is a Tory Squabble writ large. Why would anyone not be content to just sit on the sidelines and watch The Nasty Party rip itself apart, before finally implementing it's most ruinous excesses? It's not just a party about to be taken down, but a whole shade of politics - Neo-Liberalism.

This is my generation's 3 Day Week. This is our Winter Of Discontent. The time when a political style becomes unthinkable for at least a generation.

If you're a Socialist, why would you possibly want to avoid that self destruction? Just get your dust pan and brush out, and look forward to around a decade of Blame-Free-Politics.

 A Town Called Malus wrote:
You effectively said it would be easy by saying we should have invoked article 50 the day after the referendum, completely ignoring all of the work that was required to prepare for the negotiations.

Considering the complete and utter feth up we've had from delaying A50 activation, I don't think it could have gone any worse. It might have sped up the process by focusing some minds. At any rate, the government should have been working at it hammer and tongs 24/7.

If you've any complaints as to why pre-referendum planning for a Leave vote didn't happen, then I suggest you direct them to one David Cameron.



Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

Herzlos wrote:
I honestly don't know why Labour didn't campaign the GE on that basis, I suspect they were just as caught out as everyone by the snap announcement.

With Corbyn being anti-EU and most of his party being pro-EU it's no doubt taken a long time to figure out a decent plan.

You're right they should be jumping up and down about a moderate Brexit.

Toe-In-The-Water.

They can't be the ones to deliver Brexit. They can't be the ones to deny Brexit.

The whole debacle is a Tory Squabble writ large. Why would anyone not be content to just sit on the sidelines and watch The Nasty Party rip itself apart, before finally implementing it's most ruinous excesses? It's not just a party about to be taken down, but a whole shade of politics - Neo-Liberalism.

This is my generation's 3 Day Week. This is our Winter Of Discontent. The time when a political style becomes unthinkable for at least a generation.

If you're a Socialist, why would you possibly want to avoid that self destruction? Just get your dust pan and brush out, and look forward to around a decade of Blame-Free-Politics.

The flip-side to the Tories owning it is that Labour could have shown leadership and statesman like aura by campaigning on the compromise solution I outlined.

If there was a GE tomorrow, and Labour campaigned on that platform, they'd probably win it. Moderate Tories and Lib Dem voters would probably flock to Corbyn. Hell, Vince Cable would probably back Corbyn on this.