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MDSW wrote: I should totally do a bit more research, so take this simplistic approach with a grain of salt...
Simply put, I cannot really believe NK is an independent country in regards to resources and materials. Clearly, China is their supplier of these items and the hammer needs to come down from China. They have a spoiled brat of a child running rampant and it is time for Dad to crack their kid's behind, and good.
Oh contraire Daddy likes what they are doing.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
JimOnMars wrote: ^^ Pretty much my thoughts. Doing nothing means nuked cities.
10 minutes for phase 1 of the war, 2 months for phase 2.
20 years to rebuild.
All this based off of your assumption that Kim Jong-un is mentally unstable? Seems like the same kind of thinking that got the US into Iraq.
You know it might be cheaper and less bloody to purchase all of North Korea in its current state than carry out your plan.
The answer is sadly. He is not stable.
Not even close.
He has been raised a king since birth and groomed for the role for a few years min.
He rules as a absolute leader of North Korea.
He does not trust own family. He killed alot of them.
He killed his ex. Maybe info.
He killed his brother. Threat tp him? Replacement Kim.
This man is not a safe pair of hands.
None of these points suggest mental illness. What you are talking about is very likely to be quite rational from Kim's position however bloody.
If you do not understand what a foreign state is doing, assuming their leader/leadership to be insane is a really cheap explanation. We've seen this explanation used too often. Saddam was insane, Putin is insane, Kim Jong-un is insane, Gadaffi was insane etc etc.
He had his uncle killed by mortar, then his entire family murdered as well.
How does that not scream mental instability?
It might in a vacuum but there are all kinds of other things that the regime does that suggests agency and planning. Also would the murder of a political rival(or possible dissident) be a sign of mental instability? North Korea does not have a very good system of political succession or civil/human rights so how else are political rivalries and disputes going to be settled? It doesnt take too much effort to see some of the possible dynamics involved in Kim's uncle +family getting purged.
Article offers a basic range of views on why Kim's uncle was executed.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Kilkrazy wrote: Without examining Kim Jong Bim in person it's impossible to say if he is clinically insane or reacting rationally to an insane situation.
Sounds about right. Within a totalitarian state what appears to be insane to us is probably quite rational.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/14 20:41:12
They fired 0 shells because BM-21 Grads use rockets. It's basically a modernized katyusha. Good news, a weapon designed for saturation is inaccurate. In other news, water is wet.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/14 21:25:08
Fate is in heaven, armor is on the chest, accomplishment is in the feet. - Nagao Kagetora
MDSW wrote:They have a spoiled brat of a child running rampant and it is time for Dad to crack their kid's behind, and good.
It's more like having a homeless person living nearby who was once interesting/funny/useful/whatever but now they are causing minor inconveniences for all neighbours and everybody is just trying to placate them while trying to find a long term solution that works and is affordable. Sure you could do something drastic but who knows what the reaction would be.
The difference is with one homeless person you can just deal with them but here you have millions of people who would end up dying or at best in an even worse situation than they are now (nobody wants to support millions of people they don't know what to do with).
Take for example former East Germany, nearly three decades later and the recovery still isn't finished and those states tend to have a higher unemployment rate than the rest of Germany. A similar NK solution would need to work with a bigger population, even worse conditions, and a more complicated set of "leaders".
That's why everybody more or less just looks away and tries to keep some sort of balance that doesn't disrupt the status quo too much. The whole situation is potentially very volatile while any solutions look rather expensive and like a lot of long term work for everyone involved.
MDSW wrote:They have a spoiled brat of a child running rampant and it is time for Dad to crack their kid's behind, and good.
It's more like having a homeless person living nearby who was once interesting/funny/useful/whatever but now they are causing minor inconveniences for all neighbours and everybody is just trying to placate them while trying to find a long term solution that works and is affordable. Sure you could do something drastic but who knows what the reaction would be.
Its only a matter of time till he loses his mind or accidentally sets the hedge on fire while smoking.
JimOnMars wrote: ^^ Pretty much my thoughts. Doing nothing means nuked cities.
10 minutes for phase 1 of the war, 2 months for phase 2.
20 years to rebuild.
All this based off of your assumption that Kim Jong-un is mentally unstable? Seems like the same kind of thinking that got the US into Iraq.
You know it might be cheaper and less bloody to purchase all of North Korea in its current state than carry out your plan.
The answer is sadly. He is not stable.
Not even close.
He has been raised a king since birth and groomed for the role for a few years min.
He rules as a absolute leader of North Korea.
He does not trust own family. He killed alot of them.
He killed his ex. Maybe info.
He killed his brother. Threat tp him? Replacement Kim.
This man is not a safe pair of hands.
None of these points suggest mental illness. What you are talking about is very likely to be quite rational from Kim's position however bloody.
If you do not understand what a foreign state is doing, assuming their leader/leadership to be insane is a really cheap explanation. We've seen this explanation used too often. Saddam was insane, Putin is insane, Kim Jong-un is insane, Gadaffi was insane etc etc.
He had his uncle killed by mortar, then his entire family murdered as well.
How does that not scream mental instability?
It might in a vacuum but there are all kinds of other things that the regime does that suggests agency and planning. Also would the murder of a political rival(or possible dissident) be a sign of mental instability? North Korea does not have a very good system of political succession or civil/human rights so how else are political rivalries and disputes going to be settled? It doesnt take too much effort to see some of the possible dynamics involved in Kim's uncle +family getting purged.
Article offers a basic range of views on why Kim's uncle was executed.
Yes, the murder of a political rival would be a sign of mental instability. That is paranoia run rampant. It is not a good sign. How he was executed is even more of a red flag. He hit the man with a mortar. That is some cruel and unusual punishment. Some would say it is a little sadistic.(A lot, a lot of people would say that)
Do perfectly healthy people execute people with mortar fire?
JimOnMars wrote: ^^ Pretty much my thoughts. Doing nothing means nuked cities.
10 minutes for phase 1 of the war, 2 months for phase 2.
20 years to rebuild.
All this based off of your assumption that Kim Jong-un is mentally unstable? Seems like the same kind of thinking that got the US into Iraq.
You know it might be cheaper and less bloody to purchase all of North Korea in its current state than carry out your plan.
The answer is sadly. He is not stable.
Not even close.
He has been raised a king since birth and groomed for the role for a few years min.
He rules as a absolute leader of North Korea.
He does not trust own family. He killed alot of them.
He killed his ex. Maybe info.
He killed his brother. Threat tp him? Replacement Kim.
This man is not a safe pair of hands.
None of these points suggest mental illness. What you are talking about is very likely to be quite rational from Kim's position however bloody.
If you do not understand what a foreign state is doing, assuming their leader/leadership to be insane is a really cheap explanation. We've seen this explanation used too often. Saddam was insane, Putin is insane, Kim Jong-un is insane, Gadaffi was insane etc etc.
He had his uncle killed by mortar, then his entire family murdered as well.
How does that not scream mental instability?
It might in a vacuum but there are all kinds of other things that the regime does that suggests agency and planning. Also would the murder of a political rival(or possible dissident) be a sign of mental instability? North Korea does not have a very good system of political succession or civil/human rights so how else are political rivalries and disputes going to be settled? It doesnt take too much effort to see some of the possible dynamics involved in Kim's uncle +family getting purged.
Article offers a basic range of views on why Kim's uncle was executed.
Yes, the murder of a political rival would be a sign of mental instability. That is paranoia run rampant. It is not a good sign. How he was executed is even more of a red flag. He hit the man with a mortar. That is some cruel and unusual punishment. Some would say it is a little sadistic.(A lot, a lot of people would say that)
Do perfectly healthy people execute people with mortar fire?
Fueled by the fact your killing someone like him, so extremely, and wiping out own famiy show he has tp rely on some people but also that things are not as stable below surface politically as they seem.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
They fired 0 shells because BM-21 Grads use rockets. It's basically a modernized katyusha. Good news, a weapon designed for saturation is inaccurate. In other news, water is wet.
I'll be happy to concede that the fact a lot missed isn't a big deal if you admit that the fact 25% of their ordnance did hit but didn't explode is notable. You glossed over that point, and it seems salient since your whole argument was that the NK stuff is much better than we think it is.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/15 00:47:53
lord_blackfang wrote: Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.
Flinty wrote: The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
I'll be happy to concede that the fact a lot missed isn't a big deal if you admit that the fact 25% of their ordnance did hit but didn't explode is notable. You glossed over that point, and it seems salient since your whole argument was that the NK stuff is much better than we think it is.
Because it's not notable. It's about 2% worse than the USAF's requirements for their saturation weapons, such as cluster muntions. The Chinese version of the rockets have a bad habit of not detonating when they hit deep mud or water, as well. They don't stop fast enough to go off, so you get unexploded rockets that are quite live laying around. But they have better range than the Russian version.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/07/15 05:01:31
Fate is in heaven, armor is on the chest, accomplishment is in the feet. - Nagao Kagetora
I'll be happy to concede that the fact a lot missed isn't a big deal if you admit that the fact 25% of their ordnance did hit but didn't explode is notable. You glossed over that point, and it seems salient since your whole argument was that the NK stuff is much better than we think it is.
Because it's not notable. It's about 2% worse than the USAF's requirements for their saturation weapons, such as cluster muntions. The Chinese version of the rockets have a bad habit of not detonating when they hit deep mud or water, as well. They don't stop fast enough to go off, so you get unexploded rockets that are quite live laying around. But they have better range than the Russian version.
They just make up and add 20% more launchers.
They ain't short guns, rockets or troops.
Yeah there quality is lower. But it does not matter when even if you get 50% on target and exploding. Its still gonna do alot of damage of you start firing 200+ of the things.
1917 logic vs our 2017.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/15 09:31:53
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
I'll be happy to concede that the fact a lot missed isn't a big deal if you admit that the fact 25% of their ordnance did hit but didn't explode is notable. You glossed over that point, and it seems salient since your whole argument was that the NK stuff is much better than we think it is.
Because it's not notable. It's about 2% worse than the USAF's requirements for their saturation weapons, such as cluster muntions. The Chinese version of the rockets have a bad habit of not detonating when they hit deep mud or water, as well. They don't stop fast enough to go off, so you get unexploded rockets that are quite live laying around. But they have better range than the Russian version.
They just make up and add 20% more launchers.
They ain't short guns, rockets or troops.
Yeah there quality is lower. But it does not matter when even if you get 50% on target and exploding. Its still gonna do alot of damage of you start firing 200+ of the things.
1917 logic vs our 2017.
That's an interesting point always, in my opinion. We have invented weapons with such long range, such high levels of precision and cloaking or evading mechanisms...but on the very basis of combat, a human being is the same human being and will be killed by the same amount of bullets or shrapnel as a hundred years ago, with body armour only having a limited effect.
If your (North Korea's) goal is to be able to kill the maximum amount of civilians plus maybe infantry and light vehicles, then investing in easy-to-make, cheap, somewhat-robust TONS of artillery and guns is a feasible plan, it seems.
I'll be happy to concede that the fact a lot missed isn't a big deal if you admit that the fact 25% of their ordnance did hit but didn't explode is notable. You glossed over that point, and it seems salient since your whole argument was that the NK stuff is much better than we think it is.
Because it's not notable. It's about 2% worse than the USAF's requirements for their saturation weapons, such as cluster muntions. The Chinese version of the rockets have a bad habit of not detonating when they hit deep mud or water, as well. They don't stop fast enough to go off, so you get unexploded rockets that are quite live laying around. But they have better range than the Russian version.
They just make up and add 20% more launchers.
They ain't short guns, rockets or troops.
Yeah there quality is lower. But it does not matter when even if you get 50% on target and exploding. Its still gonna do alot of damage of you start firing 200+ of the things.
1917 logic vs our 2017.
That's an interesting point always, in my opinion. We have invented weapons with such long range, such high levels of precision and cloaking or evading mechanisms...but on the very basis of combat, a human being is the same human being and will be killed by the same amount of bullets or shrapnel as a hundred years ago, with body armour only having a limited effect.
If your (North Korea's) goal is to be able to kill the maximum amount of civilians plus maybe infantry and light vehicles, then investing in easy-to-make, cheap, somewhat-robust TONS of artillery and guns is a feasible plan, it seems.
Exactly, they only need alot of heavy guns, and a mass of heavy unguided missiles.
Perfect for firing on city and fixed targets.
They ain't good for firing on a mobile formation but there perfectly capable of firing on SK capital, and also fixed DMZ and other military targets.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
But the thing is, they have no hope of doing anything beyond killing thousands and then all getting killed by far superior forces (SK, USA, any other allies that want to get in on the asskicking, I'm sure Japan is itching for an excuse to use it's totally-not-an-army again). So realistically, why would they? I know there's always the "they're insane!" argument, but I don't buy that. First, the likelihood that Kim actually controls everything and it's not just controlled by the various generals is slim to none. And second, no insane person would have their country last this long.
Nevertheless, our goals should not include preparing to strike at the DPRK. Strengthen and fortify the Republic of Korea yes and make sure they have some of the strongest missile defense systems in the world, but we should favor defense over everything. I find the likelihood of NK attacking SK extremely remote. We've been saying they are "just about to attack" for fifty fething years. The "threat" of NK attacking has been swung around for my entire life. I don't think anything s about to change any time soon.
Homosexuality is the #1 cause of gay marriage.
kronk wrote: Every pizza is a personal sized pizza if you try hard enough and believe in yourself.
sebster wrote: Yes, indeed. What a terrible piece of cultural imperialism it is for me to say that a country shouldn't murder its own citizens
BaronIveagh wrote: Basically they went from a carrot and stick to a smaller carrot and flanged mace.
Co'tor Shas wrote: But the thing is, they have no hope of doing anything beyond killing thousands and then all getting killed by far superior forces (SK, USA, any other allies that want to get in on the asskicking, I'm sure Japan is itching for an excuse to use it's totally-not-an-army again). So realistically, why would they? I know there's always the "they're insane!" argument, but I don't buy that. First, the likelihood that Kim actually controls everything and it's not just controlled by the various generals is slim to none. And second, no insane person would have their country last this long.
Nevertheless, our goals should not include preparing to strike at the DPRK. Strengthen and fortify the Republic of Korea yes and make sure they have some of the strongest missile defense systems in the world, but we should favor defense over everything. I find the likelihood of NK attacking SK extremely remote. We've been saying they are "just about to attack" for fifty fething years. The "threat" of NK attacking has been swung around for my entire life. I don't think anything s about to change any time soon.
To be fair, Iraq prepared for a traditional fight, with a traditional military. Traditional militaries from smaller, less developed nations can't defeat larger, more advanced nations in conventional warfare. Knowing that, they've looked at what stops larger, more advanced nations, and built their military to do that. In this case, that is horrendous civilian casualties. And it's worked- Iraq was invaded twice, and their dictator executed. North Korea is still here. I don't think adding the nuclear weapons is anything but an extension of their current policy. Deterrence by threat to civilian populations.As you say, Co'tor, they haven't invaded South Korea, or any other country during that time. There may be a few small military incidents every few years, but I find it hard to imagine a catalyst that would inspire North Korea to try to invade the South.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/15 12:27:45
Klawz-Ramming is a subset of citrus fruit?
Gwar- "And everyone wants a bigger Spleen!"
Mercurial wrote:
I admire your aplomb and instate you as Baron of the Seas and Lord Marshall of Privateers.
Orkeosaurus wrote:Star Trek also said we'd have X-Wings by now. We all see how that prediction turned out.
Orkeosaurus, on homophobia, the nature of homosexuality, and the greatness of George Takei.
English doesn't borrow from other languages. It follows them down dark alleyways and mugs them for loose grammar.
Co'tor Shas wrote: But the thing is, they have no hope of doing anything beyond killing thousands and then all getting killed by far superior forces (SK, USA, any other allies that want to get in on the asskicking, I'm sure Japan is itching for an excuse to use it's totally-not-an-army again). So realistically, why would they? I know there's always the "they're insane!" argument, but I don't buy that. First, the likelihood that Kim actually controls everything and it's not just controlled by the various generals is slim to none. And second, no insane person would have their country last this long.
I watched a documentary about NK that was filmed by a crew traveling with an optometrist who did over 100 cataract surgeries while in NK (their nutrition is so poor that it's common for them to have major cataract issues in their 30s). These people where basically blind and had their sight restored by an American using machines they had over their that were American made. After their bandages were taken off every single one of them ran to the picture of KJI and bowed down thanking him for his wonderful technology and kindness to them for healing them.
They're all insane or too scared to not do the insane things asked of them for it to make a difference.
"Holy Sh*&, you've opened my eyes and changed my mind about this topic, thanks Dakka OT!"
They ain't good for firing on a mobile formation but there perfectly capable of firing on SK capital, and also fixed DMZ and other military targets.
Mobile formations are not very mobile under a saturation bombardment from 10-20 times their numbers. I'm not joking when i say that a GRAD is mostly the cost of the rockets and can be operated by the two guys in the cab. Might take a while to reload, but that's what the other fifty trucks are for.
Co'tor Shas wrote: But the thing is, they have no hope of doing anything beyond killing thousands and then all getting killed by far superior forces
That's debatable. Technologically superior, yes, however, numerically superior? No. Think like WW2 Russia. Because that's the math they're doing right now in Pyongyang. And they're right. They can absorb casualty rates so high they could beat the US military to death with clubs and sharp stones. And they have way better than those. Given the US aversion to casualties, we're looking at a US withdrawal within weeks due to political pressure at home, even if they can hold their ground on the field. Which I'm none too sure about. I had friend who's since passed away who was part of the US X Corps in Korea. He told me that in winter, you knew an attack was coming because one or more hills would suddenly turn brown from their numbers. The US had tanks and guns and marines and close air support and naval fire support and they were being BURIED under vast waves of men who simply charged their positions with rifles and sometimes hand grenades. Mines and heavy machine-gun nests and razor-wire didn't even slow them down.
They came to die, and did so willingly. Picture ISIS with numbers and gear like China. That's your war with North Korea.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/07/15 17:40:14
Fate is in heaven, armor is on the chest, accomplishment is in the feet. - Nagao Kagetora
Co'tor Shas wrote: But the thing is, they have no hope of doing anything beyond killing thousands and then all getting killed by far superior forces (SK, USA, any other allies that want to get in on the asskicking, I'm sure Japan is itching for an excuse to use it's totally-not-an-army again). So realistically, why would they? I know there's always the "they're insane!" argument, but I don't buy that. First, the likelihood that Kim actually controls everything and it's not just controlled by the various generals is slim to none. And second, no insane person would have their country last this long.
I watched a documentary about NK that was filmed by a crew traveling with an optometrist who did over 100 cataract surgeries while in NK (their nutrition is so poor that it's common for them to have major cataract issues in their 30s). These people where basically blind and had their sight restored by an American using machines they had over their that were American made. After their bandages were taken off every single one of them ran to the picture of KJI and bowed down thanking him for his wonderful technology and kindness to them for healing them.
They're all insane or too scared to not do the insane things asked of them for it to make a difference.
Alternatively, there's more pressure to profess loyalty when an outsider is watching.
For thirteen years I had a dog with fur the darkest black. For thirteen years he was my friend, oh how I want him back.
JimOnMars wrote: What if NK elects their version of Donald Trump? All it takes is one wacko in charge to turn Seoul to glass.
We are going to have to spend a trillion dollars bombing the gak out of them.
Might as well be now.
NK version of trump? Wouldn't you say they are already far past that? They have a legitimate psychopath leading their country - starving and enslaving their people en mass. Don't you know though - weapons all have expiration dates - you have to use them eventually anyways.
If we fail to anticipate the unforeseen or expect the unexpected in a universe of infinite possibilities, we may find ourselves at the mercy of anyone or anything that cannot be programmed, categorized or easily referenced.
- Fox Mulder
JimOnMars wrote: ^^ Pretty much my thoughts. Doing nothing means nuked cities.
10 minutes for phase 1 of the war, 2 months for phase 2.
20 years to rebuild.
All this based off of your assumption that Kim Jong-un is mentally unstable? Seems like the same kind of thinking that got the US into Iraq.
You know it might be cheaper and less bloody to purchase all of North Korea in its current state than carry out your plan.
The answer is sadly. He is not stable.
Not even close.
He has been raised a king since birth and groomed for the role for a few years min.
He rules as a absolute leader of North Korea.
He does not trust own family. He killed alot of them.
He killed his ex. Maybe info.
He killed his brother. Threat tp him? Replacement Kim.
This man is not a safe pair of hands.
None of these points suggest mental illness. What you are talking about is very likely to be quite rational from Kim's position however bloody.
If you do not understand what a foreign state is doing, assuming their leader/leadership to be insane is a really cheap explanation. We've seen this explanation used too often. Saddam was insane, Putin is insane, Kim Jong-un is insane, Gadaffi was insane etc etc.
He had his uncle killed by mortar, then his entire family murdered as well.
How does that not scream mental instability?
He's probably a sociopath. But I don't think he's ''crazy''. Not ''put a straight jacket on and toss him in the loony bin'' crazy. Power hungry and with an ego the size of the moon yes.
So unpredictable, and capable of spiteful actions. But he's not a gibbering loon.
Self-proclaimed evil Cat-person. Dues Ex Felines
Cato Sicarius, after force feeding Captain Ventris a copy of the Codex Astartes for having the audacity to play Deathwatch, chokes to death on his own D-baggery after finding Calgar assembling his new Eldar army.
They ain't good for firing on a mobile formation but there perfectly capable of firing on SK capital, and also fixed DMZ and other military targets.
Mobile formations are not very mobile under a saturation bombardment from 10-20 times their numbers. I'm not joking when i say that a GRAD is mostly the cost of the rockets and can be operated by the two guys in the cab. Might take a while to reload, but that's what the other fifty trucks are for.
Co'tor Shas wrote: But the thing is, they have no hope of doing anything beyond killing thousands and then all getting killed by far superior forces
That's debatable. Technologically superior, yes, however, numerically superior? No. Think like WW2 Russia. Because that's the math they're doing right now in Pyongyang. And they're right. They can absorb casualty rates so high they could beat the US military to death with clubs and sharp stones. And they have way better than those. Given the US aversion to casualties, we're looking at a US withdrawal within weeks due to political pressure at home, even if they can hold their ground on the field. Which I'm none too sure about. I had friend who's since passed away who was part of the US X Corps in Korea. He told me that in winter, you knew an attack was coming because one or more hills would suddenly turn brown from their numbers. The US had tanks and guns and marines and close air support and naval fire support and they were being BURIED under vast waves of men who simply charged their positions with rifles and sometimes hand grenades. Mines and heavy machine-gun nests and razor-wire didn't even slow them down.
They came to die, and did so willingly. Picture ISIS with numbers and gear like China. That's your war with North Korea.
I mean, historically the Soviet Union was not the "two guns to a person" meme that is so often told. They had some of the most advanced equipment of the war (it was only really sights where the US and Nazi Germany had a definite edge). They had supply issues, (and issues caused by the purge of experienced leadership, something most evident during the winter war), but were not just orks. They were masters of force concentration and deep battle tactics.
And active personnel only (not untrained conscripts) NK has about 1.2M. They would have around 6M if they drafted *the entire country*, but that says nothing about equipping and training them. Their entire budget (25% of their economy) is $10b, compared to RoK's 39T, which is a mere 2.5% of their economy. Even SK has 600K active personnel, with far more advanced equipment and training. And the US is not going to just abandon SK and more than it abandoned France and the UK after the casualties on Normandy. We would put out full force into protecting SK, including a massive amount of new troops.
And that still leaves China. NK isn't just going to randomly declare war, something like that requires massive buildup. And China would be most aware of that. If China decides to take them on, they are supremely fethed. The PLR has over 2m active (and I should add, well trained and eqipped) troops, 0.18% of their population That's a third of NK if they get their entire population drafted.
Homosexuality is the #1 cause of gay marriage.
kronk wrote: Every pizza is a personal sized pizza if you try hard enough and believe in yourself.
sebster wrote: Yes, indeed. What a terrible piece of cultural imperialism it is for me to say that a country shouldn't murder its own citizens
BaronIveagh wrote: Basically they went from a carrot and stick to a smaller carrot and flanged mace.
They ain't good for firing on a mobile formation but there perfectly capable of firing on SK capital, and also fixed DMZ and other military targets.
Mobile formations are not very mobile under a saturation bombardment from 10-20 times their numbers. I'm not joking when i say that a GRAD is mostly the cost of the rockets and can be operated by the two guys in the cab. Might take a while to reload, but that's what the other fifty trucks are for.
Co'tor Shas wrote: But the thing is, they have no hope of doing anything beyond killing thousands and then all getting killed by far superior forces
That's debatable. Technologically superior, yes, however, numerically superior? No. Think like WW2 Russia. Because that's the math they're doing right now in Pyongyang. And they're right. They can absorb casualty rates so high they could beat the US military to death with clubs and sharp stones. And they have way better than those. Given the US aversion to casualties, we're looking at a US withdrawal within weeks due to political pressure at home, even if they can hold their ground on the field. Which I'm none too sure about. I had friend who's since passed away who was part of the US X Corps in Korea. He told me that in winter, you knew an attack was coming because one or more hills would suddenly turn brown from their numbers. The US had tanks and guns and marines and close air support and naval fire support and they were being BURIED under vast waves of men who simply charged their positions with rifles and sometimes hand grenades. Mines and heavy machine-gun nests and razor-wire didn't even slow them down.
They came to die, and did so willingly. Picture ISIS with numbers and gear like China. That's your war with North Korea.
The North Koreans were crushed in the war until the Chinese intervened. I suspect a total war today would go down the same especially if the US got assistance from other countries namely China. Whatever the North Koreans can produce the US can make a lot more of and better.
And this is all assuming the North Korean army won't fold under significant pressure and that numerically superiority means anything in an age of advanced close air support and precision artillery. I think you are overestimating the abilities of the North Korean army to do anything but blow up South Korea by a wide margin.
Thought for the day: Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
30k Ultramarines: 2000 pts
Bolt Action Germans: ~1200 pts
AOS Stormcast: Just starting.
The Empire : ~60-70 models.
1500 pts
: My Salamanders painting blog 16 Infantry and 2 Vehicles done so far!
They ain't good for firing on a mobile formation but there perfectly capable of firing on SK capital, and also fixed DMZ and other military targets.
Mobile formations are not very mobile under a saturation bombardment from 10-20 times their numbers. I'm not joking when i say that a GRAD is mostly the cost of the rockets and can be operated by the two guys in the cab. Might take a while to reload, but that's what the other fifty trucks are for.
Co'tor Shas wrote: But the thing is, they have no hope of doing anything beyond killing thousands and then all getting killed by far superior forces
That's debatable. Technologically superior, yes, however, numerically superior? No. Think like WW2 Russia. Because that's the math they're doing right now in Pyongyang. And they're right. They can absorb casualty rates so high they could beat the US military to death with clubs and sharp stones. And they have way better than those. Given the US aversion to casualties, we're looking at a US withdrawal within weeks due to political pressure at home, even if they can hold their ground on the field. Which I'm none too sure about. I had friend who's since passed away who was part of the US X Corps in Korea. He told me that in winter, you knew an attack was coming because one or more hills would suddenly turn brown from their numbers. The US had tanks and guns and marines and close air support and naval fire support and they were being BURIED under vast waves of men who simply charged their positions with rifles and sometimes hand grenades. Mines and heavy machine-gun nests and razor-wire didn't even slow them down.
They came to die, and did so willingly. Picture ISIS with numbers and gear like China. That's your war with North Korea.
The North Koreans were crushed in the war until the Chinese intervened. I suspect a total war today would go down the same especially if the US got assistance from other countries namely China. Whatever the North Koreans can produce the US can make a lot more of and better.
And this is all assuming the North Korean army won't fold under significant pressure and that numerically superiority means anything in an age of advanced close air support and precision artillery. I think you are overestimating the abilities of the North Korean army to do anything but blow up South Korea by a wide margin.
Maybe once the reserves kick in and second defensive lines come into play.
The first line at the DMZ will quickly be bombarded to hell by NK guns and rockets. Early stages however it plays is going to badly for any position in NK arty ranges.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
Oh, it will be a very bloody and difficult war. Plus, no matter what goes down, millions of Koreans are going to suffer and die. But it is winnable since the KPA is technologically backwards and led by a manbaby dictator. The only thing they have going for them is the threat they pose to Seoul and the fact that they have been building their defenses for the better part of 70 years.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/15 21:22:36
Thought for the day: Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
30k Ultramarines: 2000 pts
Bolt Action Germans: ~1200 pts
AOS Stormcast: Just starting.
The Empire : ~60-70 models.
1500 pts
: My Salamanders painting blog 16 Infantry and 2 Vehicles done so far!
TheCustomLime wrote: Oh, it will be a very bloody and difficult war. Plus, no matter what goes down, millions of Koreans are going to suffer and die. But it is winnable since the KPA is technologically backwards and led by a manbaby dictator. The only thing they have going for them is the threat they pose to Seoul and the fact that they have been building their defenses for the better part of 70 years.
Can be won. Most of the DMZ garrison is likely Killed.
The bases in arty range all hit hard in first phases of war as NPA surge forward on mass.
Seoul is hit hard by the opening garage.
The second phase SK defense lines hold further back.
US air power hits hard and blunts the enemy , the hammers the NK lines, and infrastructure.
Counter attcak has drive past hard battle, casulties heavy on all sides. Min 20k US dead.
NK, we now have millions of barely educated, propoganda full people who hate us to look after, bring to modern world.
Older genptations may never, they will take decades to become modern.
We gotta rebuild a country with 70 years raised to hate everything western...
Probbly a fair rural insurgency as die harda die hard.
It be grim.
Sgt. Vanden - OOC Hey, that was your doing. I didn't choose to fly in the "Dongerprise'.
"May the odds be ever in your favour"
Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
I have no clue how Dakka's moderation work. I expect it involves throwing a lot of d100 and looking at many random tables.
FudgeDumper - It could be that you are just so uncomfortable with the idea of your chapters primarch having his way with a docile tyranid spore cyst, that you must deny they have any feelings at all.
MDSW wrote:They have a spoiled brat of a child running rampant and it is time for Dad to crack their kid's behind, and good.
It's more like having a homeless person living nearby who was once interesting/funny/useful/whatever but now they are causing minor inconveniences for all neighbours and everybody is just trying to placate them while trying to find a long term solution that works and is affordable. Sure you could do something drastic but who knows what the reaction would be.
Its only a matter of time till he loses his mind or accidentally sets the hedge on fire while smoking.
It's a question of "what's it worth?", "how best to contain it?", "what is doable?", and so on. And the metaphor is easier to handle because it's one person and not a whole country with all the complexities that involves. My guess is that negotiations of some sort are happening but that the best or acceptable solution looks way different for both sides.
jhe90 wrote: The answer is sadly. He is not stable.
Not even close.
The truth is we know little of his personal stability. We know almost nothing of him at all. Most of what we have is guesswork, and little of the guesswork comes from people in the intelligence and diplomatic communities.
A stable person who wants to maintain power, and even one who just wants to maintain stability, can be put in a situation where he kills a lot of people. Most tyrants who assume power from another tyrant have to clean house and kill a bunch of rivals and potential threats while a new hierarchy of power.
This is awful of course, and in a perfect world many people in the regime would be tried and found guilty of all sorts of crimes. But it isn't evidence of instability. Truth is we have no idea how stable the NK leadership is, although we do know that what we've seen so far is mostly consistent with how most stable, self-serving bastards would operate in that situation.
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Kilkrazy wrote: China isn't as capitalist as you might think. Everything important is controlled by the communist government, and there are no signs they are thinking of giving up their iron fisting in a velvet glove.
It depends how capitalist people think things are. Government owns many assets, and even more is privately owned but only because of their connections to government (generals, high ranking party members etc). But these assets are primarily run for profit, with decisions largely decentralised. For instance it is now rare that a company will be run for employment rather than profit, though it does still happen (a major reason the iron ore price tanked was China continuing to ramp up production despite the cost of production being more than double the global price, because producers were instructed to maximise employment or face political consequences).
There is still a lot of state ownership and state direction in the economy, but it is nothing like the state controlled economy it once was. Does that make it capitalist? No. Does that make it not capitalist. Not really. It's just a hybrid, like most economies, just a much dirtier hybrid than others.
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Mario wrote: It's more like having a homeless person living nearby who was once interesting/funny/useful/whatever but now they are causing minor inconveniences for all neighbours and everybody is just trying to placate them while trying to find a long term solution that works and is affordable. Sure you could do something drastic but who knows what the reaction would be.
An example to me are the Branch Davidians in Waco. It was more than bit scary that these guys were building a large aresenal while preaching some very crazy stuff, but by engaging them all that was achieved was making certain they flipped the switch in to apocalyptic death cult. Leaving them alone isn't a perfect solution because you still get groups like the Mansons, but they're more rare.
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Dreadwinter wrote: Yes, the murder of a political rival would be a sign of mental instability. That is paranoia run rampant.
There's an old line, 'it isn't paranoia if they really are out to get you'. It's mostly a joke, but when it comes to the rulers of despotic regimes it couldn't be more true. Do you think that other people in NK's leadership just meekly submit to the rule of the Kim's? Even if they don't personally crave more power, they'd be mad to provoke powerful conspirators, out of fear for what might happen if their conspiracy succeeds.
This is paradox of absolute power. If a state grants absolute power to one person, including the power to kill anyone who threatens him, that is actually less stable because so many people will desire that power if only to be secure from the threat of being turned on and killed.
I think people need to stop looking NK in terms of personal judgments, as if what is happening there is the product of bad people deciding to do bad things. It is driven by the structure the country is in.
How he was executed is even more of a red flag. He hit the man with a mortar. That is some cruel and unusual punishment. Some would say it is a little sadistic.(A lot, a lot of people would say that)
Do perfectly healthy people execute people with mortar fire?
If you want to make a show of your power by murdering rivals, it makes sense to do it with as gruesome a murder as you can imagine. History is full of horrific executions of political rivals. You know what really pissed me off about Braveheart, even more than the Battle of Stirling Bridge having no bridge? Or Robert the Bruce being shown as weakwilled prat? It was Wallace's death, which was gruesome but also really stupid, as it gave Wallace every chance to keep looking brave and noble. In reality the guy was horrifically mutilated in the most humiliating and painful ways, it was more than enough to draw pleas of mercy from him. That is how brutal but sane men keep power in brutal political worlds.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2017/07/17 03:23:48
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
The North Koreans were crushed in the war until the Chinese intervened. I suspect a total war today would go down the same especially if the US got assistance from other countries namely China. Whatever the North Koreans can produce the US can make a lot more of and better.
And this is all assuming the North Korean army won't fold under significant pressure and that numerically superiority means anything in an age of advanced close air support and precision artillery. I think you are overestimating the abilities of the North Korean army to do anything but blow up South Korea by a wide margin.
China invades North Korea to aid the US? While we're fantasizing, I'd like a hot blonde and a bottle of Jack.
One, the US would have to disengage and redeploy it's forces from current deployments to NK. This could take weeks in and of itself.
Two, we're assuming that there is no effective decapitation strike against the SK military. Remember that Seoul and bases closer to NK are likely write offs in the initial exchange. This would likely cause issues with effective defense in the short term.
If you want to make a show of your power by murdering rivals, it makes sense to do it with as gruesome a murder as you can imagine. History is full of horrific executions of political rivals. You know what really pissed me off about Braveheart, even more than the Battle of Stirling Bridge having no bridge? Or Robert the Bruce being shown as weakwilled prat? It was Wallace's death, which was gruesome but also really stupid, as it gave Wallace every chance to keep looking brave and noble. In reality the guy was horrifically mutilated in the most humiliating and painful ways, it was more than enough to draw pleas of mercy from him. That is how brutal but sane men keep power in brutal political worlds.
Mind you, the only source we have for any of this is the Chinese press. So,grain of salt, people. They did admit that him feeding his uncle to wild dogs was an exaggeration.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/18 03:38:55
Fate is in heaven, armor is on the chest, accomplishment is in the feet. - Nagao Kagetora
Yes, the murder of a political rival would be a sign of mental instability. That is paranoia run rampant. It is not a good sign. How he was executed is even more of a red flag. He hit the man with a mortar. That is some cruel and unusual punishment. Some would say it is a little sadistic.(A lot, a lot of people would say that)
Do perfectly healthy people execute people with mortar fire?
By this standard most nobility in history were insane. While the American Revolutionary in me would agree, logically its not.
-"Wait a minute.....who is that Frazz is talking to in the gallery? Hmmm something is going on here.....Oh.... it seems there is some dispute over video taping of some sort......Frazz is really upset now..........wait a minute......whats he go there.......is it? Can it be?....Frazz has just unleashed his hidden weiner dog from his mini bag, while quoting shakespeares "Let slip the dogs the war!!" GG
-"Don't mind Frazzled. He's just Dakka's crazy old dude locked in the attic. He's harmless. Mostly."
-TBone the Magnificent 1999-2014, Long Live the King!
The North Koreans were crushed in the war until the Chinese intervened. I suspect a total war today would go down the same especially if the US got assistance from other countries namely China. Whatever the North Koreans can produce the US can make a lot more of and better.
And this is all assuming the North Korean army won't fold under significant pressure and that numerically superiority means anything in an age of advanced close air support and precision artillery. I think you are overestimating the abilities of the North Korean army to do anything but blow up South Korea by a wide margin.
China invades North Korea to aid the US? While we're fantasizing, I'd like a hot blonde and a bottle of Jack.
One, the US would have to disengage and redeploy it's forces from current deployments to NK. This could take weeks in and of itself.
Two, we're assuming that there is no effective decapitation strike against the SK military. Remember that Seoul and bases closer to NK are likely write offs in the initial exchange. This would likely cause issues with effective defense in the short term.
Invading North Korea without China's support, no matter how minor, is foolish and could actually kickstart a Nuclear exchange. China values North Korea as a buffer state and seeing that buffer state be violated would greatly upset them. The reason why the Chinese got involved in the Korean War in the first place is because they didn't want their borders to be violated by US forces.
For South Korea? I highly doubt the South Koreans are stupid enough to leave their entire military command in a position where they can be wiped out by pre-positioned artillery. Or at least I'd hope so.
Thought for the day: Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
30k Ultramarines: 2000 pts
Bolt Action Germans: ~1200 pts
AOS Stormcast: Just starting.
The Empire : ~60-70 models.
1500 pts
: My Salamanders painting blog 16 Infantry and 2 Vehicles done so far!
The Empire 
1500 pts
: 
