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 KTG17 wrote:

Well, as I said:

So you're not familiar with him shilling to neo-nazis and engaging in a desperate clean up when hitching himself to trump launched him into the national spotlight. Because that was brietbart's main audience prior to the Trump campaign taking off.

When you say you're an independent who likes what Bannon has to say and see no problem with trump's actions that's leaving me with a very specific image of you that's not at all flattering. Don't fall for the hype, the guy was ejected from the cabinet for being too toxic even for Trump.

He can be down right artful in toeing the line of acceptability, up till he's actually honest.

 Da Boss wrote:
KTG17: I actually agree with you about these old industrial areas that have lost out due to capitalism taking jobs where they are cheaper.

However, I see this as a consequence of America's deep mistrust of democratic socialism. The Democrats are more of a free market loving but socially liberal party, they obviously do not care about people living in these depressed communities, which is why they have drifted away from the Democrats. This is because the Democrats are not really a left wing party or a party of the worker, just a party of a particular section of the elite.
From where I am sitting the Republicans pretend to be a party of the average worker while just caring about a different section of the elite.

I do not think Trump is trying to fix these people's lives, I think he has no empathy or understanding for them, and I think he does not care about them at all. I reckon this trade war is a blunt instrument where a scalpel was needed, a quick and simple fix where these problems are complex and require long term engagement.

Exactly. This is what people mean when they talk about how both sides are bad. Both Parties have written off large swathes of the electorate as being too difficult to actually help and improve their lives so instead they just try to pander and play on their desperation to win their votes while never really helping. We’re too partisan to compromise and work together and neither Party has shown a willingness or ability to present practical solution and pass legislation so we’re stuck with this pendulum effect where we elect one Party to have control but things don’t improve so then we elect the other Party to have a crack it and instead of moving forward we just go backward. It’s going to be very difficult to work our way out of this mess, decades of brainwashing people to vote for their Party because it’s the lesser of two evils has allowed people to accept deep flaws in their Party while also believing that the other Party is an unconscionably worse evil so nobody is going to start switching sides no matter how bad it gets because the worst politician in your Party is still considered better than the best politician in the other Party.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:
Unless the US tarrifs the entire world those jobs won't come back. Its just damaging relations and multiple economies. The TPP was meant to combat Chinese trade practices, but TPP bad because it doesn't screw over US allies enough! The idea that these companies left because of these trade agreements is just far too simplistic.

What do you know about TPP DoF? Did you read it? No one has. It's 7000 pages long. You cannot tell me that agreement would have been good for America in the long term.

This will reset the stage. Maybe jobs wont come back to those specific areas, but at least this will either force China to change its trade practices or they will have a great deal to lose. Everyone is freaking out over tariffs and how they will made goods cost more. No doubt, but not all of those goods need to be purchased. If your economy hinges on making finished goods and selling them to employ millions and millions of people who have left rural China to move to the cities to work in factories, and suddenly those goods aren't selling, how are you going to employ those people. A number of large companies in China have defaulted on bonds this year and they are saying this year was going to be the worst before all this trade war talk even started. The Chinese know they are playing with fire and that's why they've been silent on Trump's increase of tariffs. They wanted to show a strong response, but its going to catch up with them and they know it. And when you have already been lying to the world about your GDP numbers and debt, no one trusts you, you've got a housing bubble, and billions and billions of Chinese money is set to make a mass exodus from the country is things go south, you've got a bomb in the making.

I also guarantee that this will also bring back manufacturing to a lot of home countries too. Not just the US but back to other countries in asia. Why build something in China thats going be slapped with a tariff if I can build it in Vietnam and avoid it? Don't think the Chinese aren't well aware of that scenario too. And what do you do with those people you had in those factories. Its going to keep the higher powers up at night.

Seriously, the next time you mention TPP, I hope you can quote something from it.


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YeOldSaltPotato wrote:

When you say you're an independent who likes what Bannon has to say and see no problem with trump's actions that's leaving me with a very specific image of you that's not at all flattering. Don't fall for the hype, the guy was ejected from the cabinet for being too toxic even for Trump.

He can be down right artful in toeing the line of acceptability, up till he's actually honest.

Are you telling me that if I am a registered independent that I cannot agree with a position in either party? So I can't agree with supporting abortion because the democrat party supports it, but nor can I be against it cause that would mean I would be siding with republicans? Come on man. I told you I am a wavy line down the middle.

As far as my image, keep in mind that a lot of people who voted for Trump and Bannon are not racist either. My mom voted for Trump. She is one of the sweetest people I know.

Pick an issue and you'll have all sorts of deplorables align with it, from the left or right. Not sticking up for Bannon here, just stating that generally here. I agree with just about everything he said in that interview minus the crypocurrency part. Doesn't mean I am a racist or nazi. I want the same thing everyone else does, for this country to be strong economically and for all of us to prosper.

Here is the text of Trans-Pacific Partnership

http://tpp.mfat.govt.nz/text

The jobs going to China aren't comig back and largely never will. If they cant do it in China, theyll go to Bangladesh or Indonesia or Vietnam or something else even cheaper, or theyll be automated. Slapping China with tarriffs isnt going to change that. It may delay some jobs disapearing a couple years or skipping straight from outsourcing to robots, but probably not much else.

And yes, lots of China's economy is a ponzi scheme...but then, so is much of the US economy

Also, anyone exepcting US defense spending to go down because NATO allies are spending more is deluding themselves, the US defense budget isnt really tied to their spending in that way, just becauss Germany spends another million doesnt mean the US is going to save a million or anything at all, it just doesn't work like that, at best youll see some minor reshuffling, but the DoD and congress is not going to shrink that budget, theyll find new ways to spend it, the US taxpayer wont save a dime.

 Frazzled wrote:
And...CNN is reporting Cohen made recordings of he and Trump discussing the payments to the porno star.

Correction: this is a new payment to a former Playboy playmate. Fox is now saying its the first of "many" tapes. Wooo...

Wonder how deep that rabbit hole will go...

Certainly shows that Cohen was never actually going to take a bullet for trump if he's hanging onto leverage like that.

Jeez how many intelligence agencies have massive dirt on this guy?

Right?

Not only that, now NY is opening a criminal investigation into his foundation. We'll see if anything comes of that, but that could get...awkward


In other news...can anyone recall public loyalty pledges like this before?

EDIT: Not really politics...but the United States Consumer Product Safety Commission is putting out weird stuff these days.

Horses

Long term TPP was meant to help form a united block with East Asian countries mainly against Chinese trading practices to counter Chinese economic power in the region and facilitate trade between allies. It was everything the US could realistically want from a trade deal. And no, you don't have to read all 7000 pages as its very detailed on less than relevant sections for the wider China-US competition. Suffice to say the US had a soft power winner there against China.

How is it going to force China to change practices? We all know Trump isn't concerned with facts. Giving in is no guarentee he will actually lift the damn tariffs, because he plays in an alternate reality where Canada is the enemy. China's best option is to ride it out. Sure its going to hurt, but Trump won't be President forever and plenty of US businesses have large interests in China. Plus China has some options beyond tariffs.

You assume those products don't sell, but a lot of Chinese manufacturing just doesn't get done in other areas. Trade will continue and consumets will pay the price such as the hilariously Chinese made MAGA hats.

You seem not very up to date on the whole part. China is already becoming too expensive. Growth has been slowing for years because other East/South East Asian nations are now cheaper, hence them shifting away from the overreliance on trade. Xi Jinping is acutely aware of the issues facing China and backing down is going to be an enormous humiliation for the CCP, one they will unlikely accept. But China still holds a large amount of US debt and dollars, they have options.

Also I can say seriously quote me stuff, but this is mainly for the others reading, not to convince someone who actually thinks Bannon rehashing Huntington is somehow 'refreshing', when Huntington's work was already starting to smell up the place 2 decades ago.

Here's the NATO spending commitment

https://www.nato.int/cps/ic/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm

tldr hit the 2% of gdp by 2024

and you're a schill hiding behind being an independent.

I've always found anti-TPP talk to be hilarious. The whole purpose of TPP was to combat China in a more precise and tactful way rather than the idiotic bludgeoning that Trump is doing with his moronic trade war. TPP was meant to create a bloc of countries against China. It was also a lot of American goodwill in that agreement (lobbying countries, etc.) that Trump threw away because feth Obama.

Trade wars have 99% of the time been more harmful than good. They cannot be won. Nor are those jobs ever coming back. There is a ton of manufacturing in the US, contrary to popular belief. The plants are just getting more and more automated. SO even if you can somehow force companies to manufacture in the US, there won't be manufacturing jobs for humans at least. That problem is only going to get worse. What will you do when trucking, a giant profession in the US, is automated? That's a fairly easy one to automate next.

 deltaKshatriya wrote:
What will you do when trucking, a giant profession in the US, is automated? That's a fairly easy one to automate next.

Bring back the horse and buggy jobs!

We joke, but that's the direction that we're headed in terms of what Trumpism would push next. Trade wars might not sound as stupid as bring back horses and buggies, but considering everything going on these days, it wouldn't surprise me.

 deltaKshatriya wrote:
I've always found anti-TPP talk to be hilarious. The whole purpose of TPP was to combat China in a more precise and tactful way rather than the idiotic bludgeoning that Trump is doing with his moronic trade war. TPP was meant to create a bloc of countries against China. It was also a lot of American goodwill in that agreement (lobbying countries, etc.) that Trump threw away because feth Obama.

Trade wars have 99% of the time been more harmful than good. They cannot be won. Nor are those jobs ever coming back. There is a ton of manufacturing in the US, contrary to popular belief. The plants are just getting more and more automated. SO even if you can somehow force companies to manufacture in the US, there won't be manufacturing jobs for humans at least. That problem is only going to get worse. What will you do when trucking, a giant profession in the US, is automated? That's a fairly easy one to automate next.

Remember when the other TPP countries thought the US was negotiating at an almost 'screwing them over' hardball level, little did they know!

Trump's entire campaign has been based on the delusion of being able to turn back time, its amazing how many still have faith in that. All that money is better invested in preparing people for the future, instead of wasting it trying to get back the jobs of the 50's.

 Vaktathi wrote:
The jobs going to China aren't comig back and largely never will.

THOSE jobs probably not, but that's not the point. They will leave China for areas like the ones you mentioned. Doesn't matter where those are produced, but its important to China.

Keep in mind there is a lot at stake with the trade tariffs when just where products are made. Hitting what is made in China is the leverage.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:
Long term TPP was meant to help form a united block with East Asian countries mainly against Chinese trading practices to counter Chinese economic power in the region and facilitate trade between allies. It was everything the US could realistically want from a trade deal. And no, you don't have to read all 7000 pages as its very detailed on less than relevant sections for the wider China-US competition. Suffice to say the US had a soft power winner there against China.

And jobs weren't going to leave the US with NAFTA. They did. That's the long term effect of TPP you cannot tell me wouldn't happen. If you read TPP and are able to quote me specifics as to where the US would benefit greatly from it, and why the US should sign up for it, then great. But don't just quote some talking head on TV who probably hasn't read it either.

You seem not very up to date on the whole part. China is already becoming too expensive. Growth has been slowing for years because other East/South East Asian nations are now cheaper, hence them shifting away from the overreliance on trade. Xi Jinping is acutely aware of the issues facing China and backing down is going to be an enormous humiliation for the CCP, one they will unlikely accept. But China still holds a large amount of US debt and dollars, they have options.

I know a great deal about this, just because I didn't mention it in my point doesn't mean otherwise. And the points you just added only backs up my point.

And on US Treasuries, everyone freaks out about that too. That's hysterical. Do you know why the Chinese buy US Treasuries? Think about it. They do not do it to be nice. They are a safe investment. They are more than welcome to invest their money anywhere they want, but they buy a ton of our treasuries like everyone else does. If there was a safer place to put their money, they would. And the idea that they would dump US treasuries is hysterical too. If things got so bad that they wanted to drop that kind of bomb by dumping them on the market, guess what? They would be trashing their own portfolio! And then what? Now they have less money they actually need to bail them out of the gigantic mess that will be.

Don't worry, US Treasuries are going to be fine for a long time to come.

 Mozzyfuzzy wrote:
Here's the NATO spending commitment

https://www.nato.int/cps/ic/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm

tldr hit the 2% of gdp by 2024

and you're a schill hiding behind being an independent.

So you think I am a Republican who supports abortion, same-sex marriage, legalization of pot, and a whole host of other liberal stances? I imagine the Republicans love having me in their party when I get up to speak. I bet those clowns accuse me of being a democrat!




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You guys realize the biggest issue with China is not where products are made right? Its the barriers of entry. Its the forcing sharing of technology with Chinese companies and then transferring that knowledge to other Chinese companies who do it for cheaper. Its a whole host of issues THAT OBAMA AND OTHERS DID NOT SOLVE. So pick any previous hero president of yours and please tell me what they did in their time to stop this. No one. Now you have someone trying to do it on behalf of Americans and you have your panties in a bunch.

I would love to hear the alternative ideas no one else has thought of, and how to convince the Chinese to do otherwise, when they do not want to.

We're playing hardball now cause no one else did prior.

So is Trump still to thank for increased NATO spending or not?

I never said anything about being Republican.

 KTG17 wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:
Long term TPP was meant to help form a united block with East Asian countries mainly against Chinese trading practices to counter Chinese economic power in the region and facilitate trade between allies. It was everything the US could realistically want from a trade deal. And no, you don't have to read all 7000 pages as its very detailed on less than relevant sections for the wider China-US competition. Suffice to say the US had a soft power winner there against China.

And jobs weren't going to leave the US with NAFTA. They did. That's the long term effect of TPP you cannot tell me wouldn't happen. If you read TPP and are able to quote me specifics as to where the US would benefit greatly from it, and why the US should sign up for it, then great. But don't just quote some talking head on TV who probably hasn't read it either.

They didn't just leave because of NAFTA, plenty of US companies have moved to countries the US doesn't have free trade deals with or just shut down. Its the economy not the trade deals that cause US business to leave. So you want me, to go over TPP again to try and convince you of how it helps the US even though you're clearly already dead set against it? Sure, who doesn't love a Sisyphean task.

 KTG17 wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:
You seem not very up to date on the whole part. China is already becoming too expensive. Growth has been slowing for years because other East/South East Asian nations are now cheaper, hence them shifting away from the overreliance on trade. Xi Jinping is acutely aware of the issues facing China and backing down is going to be an enormous humiliation for the CCP, one they will unlikely accept. But China still holds a large amount of US debt and dollars, they have options.

I know a great deal about this, just because I didn't mention it in my point doesn't mean otherwise. And the points you just added only backs up my point.

And on US Treasuries, everyone freaks out about that too. That's hysterical. Do you know why the Chinese buy US Treasuries? Think about it. They do not do it to be nice. They are a safe investment. They are more than welcome to invest their money anywhere they want, but they buy a ton of our treasuries like everyone else does. If there was a safer place to put their money, they would. And the idea that they would dump US treasuries is hysterical too. If things got so bad that they wanted to drop that kind of bomb by dumping them on the market, guess what? They would be trashing their own portfolio! And then what? Now they have less money they actually need to bail them out of the gigantic mess that will be.

Don't worry, US Treasuries are going to be fine for a long time to come.

When you say you know a great deal and then go on to talk about US treasuries (forget it, too hostile). They don't just do it because its a safe investment, it also gives them a limited amount of leverage. The amount China currently holds can be very disruptive, if Trump is so determined to ruin China with tariffs, their use might not be an idle threat, because at that point the Chinese economy is tanking anyway. But like I said, no need to do any of that, just wait a few years and either Trump gets bored or goes out of office, I mean he already let ZTE slide so. China has a patient mindset, the CCP isn't bound to terms of office, any decision it takes to please Trump now (terribly domestically speaking for them) can also easily be reversed.

And China is now rapidly moving away from investments in the US due to Trump's stance, so money going out to China is also no longer coming back in as FDI, having dropped by 90%.


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 KTG17 wrote:

You guys realize the biggest issue with China is not where products are made right? Its the barriers of entry. Its the forcing sharing of technology with Chinese companies and then transferring that knowledge to other Chinese companies who do it for cheaper. Its a whole host of issues THAT OBAMA AND OTHERS DID NOT SOLVE. So pick any previous hero president of yours and please tell me what they did in their time to stop this. No one. Now you have someone trying to do it on behalf of Americans and you have your panties in a bunch.

Well Trump's treatment of ZTE shows he's not interested in solving it either. But you knew that already right?

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

 deltaKshatriya wrote:
I've always found anti-TPP talk to be hilarious. The whole purpose of TPP was to combat China in a more precise and tactful way rather than the idiotic bludgeoning that Trump is doing with his moronic trade war. TPP was meant to create a bloc of countries against China. It was also a lot of American goodwill in that agreement (lobbying countries, etc.) that Trump threw away because feth Obama.

Trade wars have 99% of the time been more harmful than good. They cannot be won. Nor are those jobs ever coming back. There is a ton of manufacturing in the US, contrary to popular belief. The plants are just getting more and more automated. SO even if you can somehow force companies to manufacture in the US, there won't be manufacturing jobs for humans at least. That problem is only going to get worse. What will you do when trucking, a giant profession in the US, is automated? That's a fairly easy one to automate next.

Remember when the other TPP countries thought the US was negotiating at an almost 'screwing them over' hardball level, little did they know!

Trump's entire campaign has been based on the delusion of being able to turn back time, its amazing how many still have faith in that. All that money is better invested in preparing people for the future, instead of wasting it trying to get back the jobs of the 50's.

Yea what saddens me more is that people have become desperate/disillusioned/angry/whatever enough to buy into this. When you start choosing your own facts, for whatever reason, it becomes very difficult to even talk about reality, let alone debate and decide on policies.

Sigh, well, if this thread is evidence of anything, it's just how difficult an issue Trumpism itself has become. This isn't to say there aren't underlying problems, such as disappearing manufacturing jobs, growing income gaps between the rich and everyone else, but that the collective fears (cultural and economic) have started to push people to believe in scary and crazy solutions simply because they are so simple.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

They didn't just leave because of NAFTA, plenty of US companies have moved to countries the US doesn't have free trade deals with or just shut down. Its the economy not the trade deals that cause US business to leave. So you want me, to go over TPP again to try and convince you of how it helps the US even though you're clearly already dead set against it? Sure, who doesn't love a Sisyphean task.

Ok its impossible to debate with you if you aren't caught up on reality. Ford moved a plant to Mexico. Why? No tariffs and cheaper labor. That's NAFTA. People predicted this would happen before NAFTA was signed, and Clinton and everyone blew them off. Guess what? Here we are.

I am telling you if you want to convince me TPP was a going to be good for the US, be able to explain to me why and how, which I do not think you will ever be able to do, because that would me you would be able to read and understand 7000 pages of laws and economic policies. I have yet to see anyone be able to. Everyone quotes it, but very few are able to detail what is in it. That's my problem. It is way too complicated of an agreement.

When you say you know a great deal and then go on to talk about "US treasuries" that sure says a great deal, I assume you mean US Treasury securities. They don't just do it because its a safe investment, it also gives them a limited amount of leverage. The amount China currently holds can be very disruptive, if Trump is so determined to ruin China with tariffs, their use might not be an idle threat, because at that point the Chinese economy is tanking anyway. But like I said, no need to do any of that, just wait a few years and either Trump gets bored or goes out of office, I mean he already let ZTE slide so. China has a patient mindset, the CCP isn't bound to terms of office, any decision it takes to please Trump now (terribly domestically speaking for them) can also easily be reversed.

And China is now rapidly moving away from investments in the US due to Trump's stance, so money going out to China is also no longer coming back in as FDI, having dropped by 90%.

US Treasuries are not stocks with voting rights. It doesn't matter who owns them. The worst that could happen is that they would stop buying them and that might raise their auction price a fraction. Maybe this sends a message and then what? They will have to put their money somewhere! Are they going to buy riskier assets to prove a point? Maybe in the short term, but they will be back. Everyone always comes back.

I am not sure at this point we're going to convince the other, so we'll bookmark this and comeback in a few years. I am putting my money on China blinking and lifting the barriers this whole mess got started over, and with that, it will be a Trump win, and a win for American companies doing business in China. And if they don't, China's economy will buckle and all of the issues they try so hard to hide will be exposedand the whole thing will collapse like a deck of cards.

I am sure though, based on all the anti-Trump fire on here, that either way it will re-spun as China just being nice to keep Trump from imploding the world like a mad man. But whatever.

Something had to happen. It took Trump being elected to do it. That's the ironic part of all this.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

Well Trump's treatment of ZTE shows he's not interested in solving it either. But you knew that already right?

You understand why he really did that, right? I'll give you a few minutes to google it.

 deltaKshatriya wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

 deltaKshatriya wrote:
I've always found anti-TPP talk to be hilarious. The whole purpose of TPP was to combat China in a more precise and tactful way rather than the idiotic bludgeoning that Trump is doing with his moronic trade war. TPP was meant to create a bloc of countries against China. It was also a lot of American goodwill in that agreement (lobbying countries, etc.) that Trump threw away because feth Obama.

Trade wars have 99% of the time been more harmful than good. They cannot be won. Nor are those jobs ever coming back. There is a ton of manufacturing in the US, contrary to popular belief. The plants are just getting more and more automated. SO even if you can somehow force companies to manufacture in the US, there won't be manufacturing jobs for humans at least. That problem is only going to get worse. What will you do when trucking, a giant profession in the US, is automated? That's a fairly easy one to automate next.

Remember when the other TPP countries thought the US was negotiating at an almost 'screwing them over' hardball level, little did they know!

Trump's entire campaign has been based on the delusion of being able to turn back time, its amazing how many still have faith in that. All that money is better invested in preparing people for the future, instead of wasting it trying to get back the jobs of the 50's.

Yea what saddens me more is that people have become desperate/disillusioned/angry/whatever enough to buy into this. When you start choosing your own facts, for whatever reason, it becomes very difficult to even talk about reality, let alone debate and decide on policies.

Sigh, well, if this thread is evidence of anything, it's just how difficult an issue Trumpism itself has become. This isn't to say there aren't underlying problems, such as disappearing manufacturing jobs, growing income gaps between the rich and everyone else, but that the collective fears (cultural and economic) have started to push people to believe in scary and crazy solutions simply because they are so simple.

I think perhaps only a minority really buys the jobs coming back argument, far more seem to be just part of the burn it down cult of personality crowd. Which really makes me wonder, Trump isn't going to come back once his term(s) are finished. Are they going to fall for it again with someone that isn't Trump? Will they really believe the next tax cut is the promised top of the hill before it gets better? How long will people keep this up and when will tech advances force them to accept reality and push for actual political change? Its not like Europe is doing much better in that regards, but here its more driven by selfishness than selfish denial, I don't know which one is worse or more sad.

 Mozzyfuzzy wrote:
So is Trump still to thank for increased NATO spending or not?

In part! I don't see anyone else making it an issue.

 KTG17 wrote:
Snip

The problem with this line of thinking is all modern economy is built like a deck of cards, a huge game everyone buys into because the alternative is subsistence farming and barter.

China is more insulated from recession because of their oppressive government and their monolithic culture.

Trumps stupid, pointless trade war is going to suck hard for the average "forgotten American", even harder than it already does suck.

Trying to quote people is a pain the backside on console*

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

I think perhaps only a minority really buys the jobs coming back argument, far more seem to be just part of the burn it down cult of personality crowd. Which really makes me wonder, Trump isn't going to come back once his term(s) are finished. Are they going to fall for it again with someone that isn't Trump?

No, things go up and down like riding the waves. Its just that for too long I have wanted to see a certain kind of change and have never seen it, let alone many discuss it. The last guy who showed me a glimpse of what could be, was Ross Perot. He wasn't perfect, but I wanted to see someone with business experience manage the CEO position. (For the record, he is famous for saying that NAFTA would lead to a giant sucking sound of jobs leaving the country, and he was right).

Will they really believe the next tax cut is the promised top of the hill before it gets better? How long will people keep this up and when will tech advances force them to accept reality and push for actual political change? Its not like Europe is doing much better in that regards, but here its more driven by selfishness than selfish denial, I don't know which one is worse or more sad.

People don't think that far ahead, because too many are thinking about what needs to be done now. Generally the suffering going on now was due to something happening some time in the past. There has been a slow bleeding of America for a long time, we're just now getting to the roots as to why. Its a well known fact that each subsequent generation of Americans has less spending power with their money than the previous generation. I feel really bad for the Millennials and even worse, the Zs. But then again, who know, maybe it won't be as bad. I do think living it up like the Baby Boomers got too might be stretching it.

Tech advancing, automation, AI, etc, thats going to effect everyone globally. We'll have to deal with that as it comes up. Then throw in Global Warming, more human migrations, clean water and food issues... it's going to be quite a party!

 KTG17 wrote:

 Mozzyfuzzy wrote:
So is Trump still to thank for increased NATO spending or not?

In part! I don't see anyone else making it an issue.

I never said anything about being Republican.

What is it now? Democrat? I am sure when they love it when I get up in support of capital punishment, strong immigration policies, and ending Obamacare.

Seriously, if you have a party in mind, do let me know.

I don't recall mentioning the Democrats either.




Hmm would you look at that somebody else made an issue of it, but I guess it's no longer an issue.

 KTG17 wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

They didn't just leave because of NAFTA, plenty of US companies have moved to countries the US doesn't have free trade deals with or just shut down. Its the economy not the trade deals that cause US business to leave. So you want me, to go over TPP again to try and convince you of how it helps the US even though you're clearly already dead set against it? Sure, who doesn't love a Sisyphean task.

Ok its impossible to debate with you if you aren't caught up on reality. Ford moved a plant to Mexico. Why? No tariffs and cheaper labor. That's NAFTA. People predicted this would happen before NAFTA was signed, and Clinton and everyone blew them off. Guess what? Here we are.

I am telling you if you want to convince me TPP was a going to be good for the US, be able to explain to me why and how, which I do not think you will ever be able to do, because that would me you would be able to read and understand 7000 pages of laws and economic policies. I have yet to see anyone be able to. Everyone quotes it, but very few are able to detail what is in it. That's my problem. It is way too complicated of an agreement.

Sigh, you do realize there comes a point were either advances in mechanisation or US labor cost would push those American workers out regardless right? Its an inevitability in the search for profit. NAFTA has cost the US on average per year 10.000 to 15.000 jobs, an absolute 'massive' drop in the ocean on the US job market. On average in those 20 years 4 million workers lost their jobs per year due to large layoffs closing down but only 200.000 can be attributed to NAFTA, while it brought in an estimated 180.000-190.000 jobs a year in other sectors (ignoring other economic benefits). The industry was dying regardless of NAFTA.

TPP is complicated because that is what trade deals are, but again, the vast majority holds little interest, you should focus on what the US forced into the deal to see why its beneficial to the US.

 KTG17 wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:
When you say you know a great deal and then go on to talk about "US treasuries" that sure says a great deal, I assume you mean US Treasury securities. They don't just do it because its a safe investment, it also gives them a limited amount of leverage. The amount China currently holds can be very disruptive, if Trump is so determined to ruin China with tariffs, their use might not be an idle threat, because at that point the Chinese economy is tanking anyway. But like I said, no need to do any of that, just wait a few years and either Trump gets bored or goes out of office, I mean he already let ZTE slide so. China has a patient mindset, the CCP isn't bound to terms of office, any decision it takes to please Trump now (terribly domestically speaking for them) can also easily be reversed.

And China is now rapidly moving away from investments in the US due to Trump's stance, so money going out to China is also no longer coming back in as FDI, having dropped by 90%.

US Treasuries are not stocks with voting rights. It doesn't matter who owns them. The worst that could happen is that they would stop buying them and that might raise their auction price a fraction. Maybe this sends a message and then what? They will have to put their money somewhere! Are they going to buy riskier assets to prove a point? Maybe in the short term, but they will be back. Everyone always comes back.

I am not sure at this point we're going to convince the other, so we'll bookmark this and comeback in a few years. I am putting my money on China blinking and lifting the barriers this whole mess got started over, and with that, it will be a Trump win, and a win for American companies doing business in China. And if they don't, China's economy will buckle and all of the issues they try so hard to hide will be exposedand the whole thing will collapse like a deck of cards.

I am sure though, based on all the anti-Trump fire on here, that either way it will re-spun as China just being nice to keep Trump from imploding the world like a mad man. But whatever.

Something had to happen. It took Trump being elected to do it. That's the ironic part of all this.

No no, the worst that could happen is that China floods the market, because the US has increased its output of securities. If China stops buying or worse sells off the securities it has it means that it gets more expensive for the US to borrow and that could lead to an economic downturn, while also increasing US interests rates on its own debt. Sure it would also massively hurt China, but the CCP also has to think about its powerbase. Or China puts on the nationalism domestically and lowers the value of the renminbi, increasing exports elsewhere to cover for the tariff losses.

And yes China might give in, because China can consider the long term. But on the other hand losing face domestically over this might not go over well for the CCP. Both options are going to hurt, but for the long term survival of the CCP and Xi I have a hard time actually seeing them give in instead of toughing it out. No need to re-spin that, China is not a nice country, but Trump has taken some of Xi's flak with his behaviour. Xi being what is basically a smarter Trump, nationalistic and belligerent, but with a plan.

Again though, China giving in means nothing, because we have no idea what Trump uses to measure China giving in, perhaps he doesn't even have a standard for that. China might never give enough to Trump's liking.

 KTG17 wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

Well Trump's treatment of ZTE shows he's not interested in solving it either. But you knew that already right?

You understand why he really did that, right? I'll give you a few minutes to google it.

You understand right? Because for all his tough talk he has no coherent approach. Just look at how happy China is that Trump quit the TPP, a decision that might live on long after the Trump presidency and his tariffs have ended.

 Mozzyfuzzy wrote:

Can't say Trump isn't having a positive effect...

Hmm would you look at that somebody else made an issue of it, but I guess it's no longer an issue.

"Can't say Trump isn't having a positive effect... " = "You cannot say that Trump isn't having a positive effect on etc." I guess you could have filled in the blanks however you wanted, but I think for the record we're all in agreement that 'I think NATO countries need to contribute their agreed upon amounts and Trump calling them out on it is motivating them to do so.'

Except we're not, because we'd be agreeing that Bush or Obama get's the credit if we're talking about who motivated them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44808077

"I think we can all totally agree that the right-wing talking points I'm parroting are totally right and we were always at war with Eurasia."

It's gone beyond farce at this point, it's practically something out of Kafka.

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

No no, the worst that could happen is that China floods the market, because the US has increased its output of securities. If China stops buying or worse sells off the securities it has it means that it gets more expensive for the US to borrow and that could lead to an economic downturn, while also increasing US interests rates on its own debt. Sure it would also massively hurt China, but the CCP also has to think about its powerbase.

China will never flood the market! It would hurt them more than it would hurt us.

Lets say this whole tariff thing goes real south, full on recession. China is pissed and dumps the treasuries it holds. Market is flooded with notes at a time when people are... what? Selling stocks? Running to bonds? Running to one of the safest bets in the economy?

Lets say the recession caused the US to crash but not China. Is China going to dump the treasuries? Maybe if they thought we would default. But so would everyone else. China would be the least of our problems.

Lets say the recession causes China to crash but not the US. China says, 'You're going down with us!" and dumps the treasuries. The market buckles, new buyers pick up the treasuries at a crazy discount, and China's portfolio just got a lot smaller, with less money to buy new things.

Tell me which scenario works out best for China.

China's best option is to NOT buy new treasuries at auction, not dump what they own.

It would be like me being pissed off at Apple, dumping my Apple shares at a discount to try and prove a point. Whatever effect the sale of those shares might have on Apple's stock that day will be absorbed once everyone remembers these are Apple shares and goes out and buys them.

KT is another troll, guys. There isn't much to be gained there.

 NinthMusketeer wrote:
KT is another troll, guys. There isn't much to be gained there.

I assume you mean me? What am I trolling about? Quote me.

 KTG17 wrote:

 Disciple of Fate wrote:

No no, the worst that could happen is that China floods the market, because the US has increased its output of securities. If China stops buying or worse sells off the securities it has it means that it gets more expensive for the US to borrow and that could lead to an economic downturn, while also increasing US interests rates on its own debt. Sure it would also massively hurt China, but the CCP also has to think about its powerbase.

China will never flood the market! It would hurt them more than it would hurt us.

Lets say this whole tariff thing goes real south, full on recession. China is pissed and dumps the treasuries it holds. Market is flooded with notes at a time when people are... what? Selling stocks? Running to bonds? Running to one of the safest bets in the economy?

Lets say the recession caused the US to crash but not China. Is China going to dump the treasuries? Maybe if they thought we would default. But so would everyone else. China would be the least of our problems.

Lets say the recession causes China to crash but not the US. China says, 'You're going down with us!" and dumps the treasuries. The market buckles, new buyers pick up the treasuries at a crazy discount, and China's portfolio just got a lot smaller, with less money to buy new things.

Tell me which scenario works out best for China.

China's best option is to NOT buy new treasuries at auction, not dump what they own.

It would be like me being pissed off at Apple, dumping my Apple shares at a discount to try and prove a point. Whatever effect the sale of those shares might have on Apple's stock that day will be absorbed once everyone remembers these are Apple shares and goes out and buys them.

As I said, the worst that could happen because it could have large global consequences. Don't forget that "never be humiliated by the foreign imperialist again" still plays quite heavily over there. The CCP will try to find the least painful solution first before giving in, because again giving in is too vague, its two years, the CCP might just take it, it can always reevaluate if Trump wins a second term..

Devaluing the renminbi and increase exports seems like the route they might try.