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T1nk4bell wrote:

tneva82 wrote:

Kebabcito wrote:
Deathskull is faaaaaar better than any other klan for SSAG in terms of probability of success

Not really. Vs 5++ knight about 1w more per average and 1% better odds of one shotting based on simulating about 100000 attacks.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

cody.d. wrote:

 flandarz wrote:
I wonder if it'd be worth a Relic to allow Gretchin (within x") to benefit from Kultur. Probably not.

I'd say that would be a wonderful relic. Mek guns, kanz and grot tanks getting kulture would have some fun potential. Hell even regular grots could get some use.

Of course this would require point increase to mek guns as minimum.

Average bad moonz vs a 5++ knight = 3,70 dmg
Average deffskullz vs a knight 5++ = 6,315
( both with big killa boss ( str 7 and 7 shoots) dakka dakka dakka include
That's nearly double dude

That's more like I calculated. Difference in rerolling damage is HUGE.

T1nk4bell wrote:

tneva82 wrote:

Kebabcito wrote:
Deathskull is faaaaaar better than any other klan for SSAG in terms of probability of success

Not really. Vs 5++ knight about 1w more per average and 1% better odds of one shotting based on simulating about 100000 attacks.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

cody.d. wrote:

 flandarz wrote:
I wonder if it'd be worth a Relic to allow Gretchin (within x") to benefit from Kultur. Probably not.

I'd say that would be a wonderful relic. Mek guns, kanz and grot tanks getting kulture would have some fun potential. Hell even regular grots could get some use.

Of course this would require point increase to mek guns as minimum.

Average bad moonz vs a 5++ knight = 3,70 dmg
Average deffskullz vs a knight 5++ = 6,315
( both with big killa boss ( str 7 and 7 shoots) dakka dakka dakka include
That's nearly double dude

Care to show math then? Because I got mine by doing the attack run ~100k times. Couple times just for sure. I don't know how to calculate it accurately so went for brute force and simply ran the attack run hundreds of thousands of time.

You need to be pretty convincing for me to believe you vs hundreds of thousands of attack runs.

I seriously doubt the simulation is well done.

Bad moons 7 shots + rerolling ones = 7/6 = 1, 667 +7 =8,667
8,667 so far.
Now dakka dakka dakka 8,667 /6 = 1,361. ( ones can be rerolled again = 1,361/6 = 0, 226

So everything together 8, 667 + 1,361 + 0,226 = 10,25

10,25 /6*2 = 3,41 hits.
Wounding on 4+
3,41/6*3 = 1,709 wounds.
1,709 /6*4 = 1,139 unsaved
1,139 * 3, 5 = 3,93 dmg done.

So last math was a bit wrong because of made the math in my head.

Deffskulz =
7 shots + one reroll = 8 rolled.
8/6 = 1,33.
8+ 1,33 = 9,33 ( average shots with dakka dakka dakka and deffkulz reroll.
9,33 /6*2 = 3,11 hits
Wounding on 4+ (+ deffskullz reroll)
3,11/6*3 = 1, 55 wounds and one reroll
1/6*2 = 0,33
1,55+0,33 = 1,88 wounds.
1,88 /6*4 = 1,25 unsaved.

Dmg : 1 dice can be rerolled from that 1,25 done =
1*4,5 = 4, 5 dmg + 0,25 *3,5 = 0,875
4,5+ 0,875 = 5,375

Here the some last post wasnt accurate.
So bad moonz 3,93
Deffskull = 5,375
That's 26,xx % more dmg.
So more than quarter Ssag mek ( like D3 shots)
If you shoot twice its about one whole normals sag mek extre fire if you use deffskullz. That's rly a lot


Numbers aside that means one deffkull Ssag mek double shooting is the same like one bad moon Ssag mek double shooting + one normal sag mek together.

Bad moons gives to me 3,25 hits. So 1.625 wounds, 1,08 successfull wounds and 2,16 dmg.

Deathskullz can't be made directly with a simple multiplication cuz the rolls are dependant, but in the easy (AND WRONG) way, it gives to me more than 5 damage, depending of the kind of aproximation done.

Kebabcito wrote:
Bad moons gives to me 3,25 hits. So 1.625 wounds, 1,08 successfull wounds and 2,16 dmg.

Deathskullz can't be made directly with a simple multiplication cuz the rolls are dependant, but in the easy (AND WRONG) way, it gives to me more than 5 damage, depending of the kind of aproximation done.

Well 3,25 is wrong .
Just look up
And 1,08 unsaved would be 3,79 dmg not 2,16 ( its d6 dmg not D3

T1nk4bell wrote:

Kebabcito wrote:
Bad moons gives to me 3,25 hits. So 1.625 wounds, 1,08 successfull wounds and 2,16 dmg.

Deathskullz can't be made directly with a simple multiplication cuz the rolls are dependant, but in the easy (AND WRONG) way, it gives to me more than 5 damage, depending of the kind of aproximation done.

Well 3,25 is wrong .
Just look up

First rerroll 1, then dakka dakka dakka, then 1 again, is 3.25 with 7 shoots.

Hits first roll 2/6
Hits after rerolling 1 2/6 + 1/6 * 2/6
Hits after dakka dakka 2/6 + 1/6 * 2/6 + 1/6*2/6 + 1/6 * 1/6 * 2/6
Hits after the 1 of the dakka dakka 2/6 + 1/6 * 2/6 + 1/6*2/6 + 1/6 * 1/6 * 2/6 + 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 2/6 + 1/6 * 1/6 * 2/6
With 7 shoots (this should be done with a distribution of every probability of shoot, but I have not enough time, just 7 shoots) It gives to me 3.25

Jep the fail is rerolling ones on 1, 361 shots not just on one
And the rerolled ones can be sixes


Automatically Appended Next Post:
7 shots = 1,16 rerolls ones = 1,361 dakka dakka = 0,226 rerrol ones = 3,25 you're right . But it's 1,62 wounds 1,08 unsaved = 3,79 dmg not 2, 18
So it's more Than 26% dmg different and deffskullz far superior

Guys seriously, give up already. Mathammer app has a paragraph just on the SSAG. Where it says that is too complicated to calculate...
DS has the advantage of rolling dmg and to w. That should be enough

I agree with EMI. SAG is just too random to put numbers to when you got rerolls involved. Having played the SSAG as both Deathskullz and unkultured, I can say that I saw no appreciable difference between them. Maybe 1 or 2 damage a turn. Is that enough to not take Evil Sunz if you're also running Deffdreadz, or Freebooterz if you got lots of Mek Gunz? That's up to you.

Bad moons ssag is not that hard to calculate, only longer than usual. It can be done in 5-10 minutes.

Deathskullz is indeed hard to calculate because the individual rolls are dependant of the other dices, but with an aproximation I've done is between 30 and 50% better to go deathskulls.

I think SSAG is the stronger unit of our army and you must go deathskulls, last match against tyranids I oneshoted an harpy in the first minute of game, and turn 3 oneshoted trygon prime, the average result of strength and shoots are 6-8 the 45% of the time, that's insane! If the needed strength for oneshooting someone is 6 (with the +1 big killa boss, sometimes 6 of strength is enough to wounds in 2's), you can roll >= more than 70% of the time, and there's a 7% chance of a critical strike, not soo low.

 Vineheart01 wrote:
Yeah thats the big reason they NEED to release a proppa Ork Warboss kit with all da fixin's

There should be absolutely nothing (except maybe a Deffgun) that a Boss shouldnt have access to.
Hell i should be allowed to bring a boss with dual Kustom Shootas and kitbash him to look like some wild-west gunslinger

It's weird, GW seems to want to make these super crazy expensive monopose character kits, but if they sold a kit with the "signature" HQs of each kit akin to the Thousand Sons Exalted Sorceror Kit I would buy the heck out of it.

Make it a 50$ price point, comes with 3 torsos, and all the bits to make warbosses, weirdboyz, regular big meks and doks. Put tons of option bits in there (including a warbike) and give people the ability to actually customize their characters again.

Maybe is just my tinfoiled hat that talks, but I'm under the impression that all the new release are going towards less and and less model building and kitbashing. It seems they wanna become a toys for adults company

 Emicrania wrote:
Maybe is just my tinfoiled hat that talks, but I'm under the impression that all the new release are going towards less and and less model building and kitbashing. It seems they wanna become a toys for adults company

No, I think you're right on the money. They've shifted from doing dual kits for a while now, with monopose and limited piece parts becoming the new norm. With characters especially, the clampacks are all about only giving you a set loadout. It's an unfortunate legacy of the Chapterhouse case and it's GW's way of spiting 3rd party sculptors that really hurts DIY factions like Orks. With legends being a thing they're more or less purging a lot of the conversions and kitbashes people are doing. The dumb part is that if GW would actually make more money rather than less if they kept the modelling options more open since people would buy extra kits like warbikes/etc to make their own character on it, or just provide a bitz service altogether to corner part of the 3rd party market. Alas, it's "no model, no rules" for now.

 flandarz wrote:
I agree with EMI. SAG is just too random to put numbers to when you got rerolls involved. Having played the SSAG as both Deathskullz and unkultured, I can say that I saw no appreciable difference between them. Maybe 1 or 2 damage a turn. Is that enough to not take Evil Sunz if you're also running Deffdreadz, or Freebooterz if you got lots of Mek Gunz? That's up to you.

I think it's clear its better from even napkin approximations, which is good enough for me.

But not enough to overwhelm army composition. If people have a reason to not want to take Deathskulls, that's fine.

tneva82 wrote:
Care to show math then? Because I got mine by doing the attack run ~100k times. Couple times just for sure. I don't know how to calculate it accurately so went for brute force and simply ran the attack run hundreds of thousands of time.

The way to calculate it is not that hard... actually calculating it is the PITA that I gave up on after I already waste 4 days of development on it.

I tried this algorithm:
Create a tree
1) create a node for each possible results for strength (and their chance)
3) below each create nodes for the results for to hit and their chance, creating another tier below the first miss if deff skills. Create an extra tier below the 6 for triggering dakkadakkadakka and create extra tier below 1 if bad moons.
4) below each hit, create nodes for all to wound results and their chance (if you are insane like me, calculate that on the fly from S+T). For deff skulls create another tier below the first failed to wound roll.
5) below each successful wound, create a node with with the chance to fail a save
6) below each unsaved wound, create a node with each result for damage done and its chance. For deff skulls create another tier for the first 1-3 rolled for damage.
7) below that another set of nodes for mortal wounds from S11+ and their chance
8) below add up damage and multiply all chances to get the chance to reach this exact result

You now have a tree which properly models a single shot from the SAG, which should have ~50000 leafs, so 50000 possible combinations of rolls per shot, which can be simplified to about 25000, as roughly 50% deal 0 damage (for T7, no invulnerable save)
This is as far as I got. Were it all went to hell:
For each number of shots, you need all possible combinations of those 25000 results. So for 2 shots it's 25000^2, for 3 shots its 25000^3, and for 12 shots, it's 25000^12, which leaves you with about 6x10^52 possible outcomes for the SSAG.
In theory, once you have all those, you simply add up all results with the same damage result (0-63) and their corresponding chance and you should get some sort of bell curve you can show around.
In practice, this little experiment caused my datatypes to overflow, memory locks, required more cpu power than an triple A egoshooter, created huge rounding errors when multiplying tiny fractions of chances and in general took ages to run.
When I broke all that insane stuff up there when trying to switch to other datatypes, I simply gave up.

Had a game last night with the 3 killtanks list



I ran it as snakebites for the 6+++, which I now think was a mistake. I should have gone for bloodaxes, I spent a few turns locked in useless combat.

had grots and nobs in the 2 bursta tanks and the Tankbustas in the gigashoota one.

Turn 1 was mine (with so few units) and the 2 burstas enjoyed removing 2 units of primaris from the board, scoring exactly 5 wounds each with no saves, 2 damage. Gigashoota fluffed mostly, plinked 1 wound off a sniper primaris, who then died when the grots inside plinked another off (3 wounds, hitting on 6's wounding on 5's!)
SSAG wound up and fired 8 S11 shots (woop) and killed off a third primaris squad without even having to roll to wound (6 hits!). Happy days. Grots killtank managed a charge, with ramming speed, into one of his tanks, and failed both 2+ rolls to inflict D3 mortal wounds. pleh. In combat he stayed for about 5 rounds of combat, getting steadily mushed by Calgar.
Return fire killed a lot of my meks grot shields, popped auto-pass morale to keep them from running. one tank now in combat with calgar, a captain, and the repulsor, who didn't run off (no idea why). Vindicaire expertly blows the head off of a grot oiler.

Grots get out and take 3 wounds off an inquisitor (go grots of doom!) before charging him, to realise he had a flamer. ouch.

SSAG now winds up to shoot the other repulsor and gets 12 S11 shots! repulsor is dropped to 1 wound. lucky git. big guns of the kill tanks shoot some heavy plasma dudes and kill a few, nobs have gotten out and line up a charge. They kill the repulsor and several plasma dudes, repulsor explodes and is exactly far enough away to not hit his dudes. banner nob dies horribly, before the nobs fight the other unit, so no +1 to hit. sadness.

His turn, assassins appear everywhere and the vindicaire goes for the SSAG mek again, grot shields keeps him alive. drugged-up assassin charges 25 grots, and kills 24 (more rolls to hit each time he kills someone. Vs T2, that's a lot of dead grots.

The details fade a little here, basically I was slogging It out with a guy who kept failing to hit with a meltabomb, and the nobs fought a dude who I had to hit on 6's. my killtank exploded and killed Calgar, captain and put 1 wound on the repulsor, then the Tankbustas got out and popped more stikkbomms to destroy it utterly. At the end of turn 5, I had 2 killtanks on mostly full health and a big mek, and he had his vindicaire. He conceded (I was on 2 objectives and had killed 2 HS choices, Big Guns Never tire).


All in all, a fun game. Lots of death to be dished out by kill tanks, and very entertaining.

Blood axes all the way next time, being able to move out of combat and still shoot is too good to pass up, compared with 6+++, which did very little. I spent too many turns not shooting, and not falling back because he'd just charge me again.

Found it odd that big guns offered no VP for killing superheavies, I would have expected it to be 2 each.

 some bloke wrote:
Had a game last night with the 3 killtanks list

Spoiler:

Battalion:
KFF Mek, oiler
SSAG Mek, oiler

24 grots
25 grots
10 grots

WAAAGH! Banner Nob
Nobs squad - 8 nobs, bossnob w/ killsaw
9 Tankbustas, bomm squig

Super Heavy Detachment:
Kill tank, gigashoota
Kill Tank, Burstagun
Kill Tank, Burstagun

2000 pts

I ran it as snakebites for the 6+++, which I now think was a mistake. I should have gone for bloodaxes, I spent a few turns locked in useless combat.

had grots and nobs in the 2 bursta tanks and the Tankbustas in the gigashoota one.

Turn 1 was mine (with so few units) and the 2 burstas enjoyed removing 2 units of primaris from the board, scoring exactly 5 wounds each with no saves, 2 damage. Gigashoota fluffed mostly, plinked 1 wound off a sniper primaris, who then died when the grots inside plinked another off (3 wounds, hitting on 6's wounding on 5's!)
SSAG wound up and fired 8 S11 shots (woop) and killed off a third primaris squad without even having to roll to wound (6 hits!). Happy days. Grots killtank managed a charge, with ramming speed, into one of his tanks, and failed both 2+ rolls to inflict D3 mortal wounds. pleh. In combat he stayed for about 5 rounds of combat, getting steadily mushed by Calgar.
Return fire killed a lot of my meks grot shields, popped auto-pass morale to keep them from running. one tank now in combat with calgar, a captain, and the repulsor, who didn't run off (no idea why). Vindicaire expertly blows the head off of a grot oiler.

Grots get out and take 3 wounds off an inquisitor (go grots of doom!) before charging him, to realise he had a flamer. ouch.

SSAG now winds up to shoot the other repulsor and gets 12 S11 shots! repulsor is dropped to 1 wound. lucky git. big guns of the kill tanks shoot some heavy plasma dudes and kill a few, nobs have gotten out and line up a charge. They kill the repulsor and several plasma dudes, repulsor explodes and is exactly far enough away to not hit his dudes. banner nob dies horribly, before the nobs fight the other unit, so no +1 to hit. sadness.

His turn, assassins appear everywhere and the vindicaire goes for the SSAG mek again, grot shields keeps him alive. drugged-up assassin charges 25 grots, and kills 24 (more rolls to hit each time he kills someone. Vs T2, that's a lot of dead grots.

The details fade a little here, basically I was slogging It out with a guy who kept failing to hit with a meltabomb, and the nobs fought a dude who I had to hit on 6's. my killtank exploded and killed Calgar, captain and put 1 wound on the repulsor, then the Tankbustas got out and popped more stikkbomms to destroy it utterly. At the end of turn 5, I had 2 killtanks on mostly full health and a big mek, and he had his vindicaire. He conceded (I was on 2 objectives and had killed 2 HS choices, Big Guns Never tire).


All in all, a fun game. Lots of death to be dished out by kill tanks, and very entertaining.

Blood axes all the way next time, being able to move out of combat and still shoot is too good to pass up, compared with 6+++, which did very little. I spent too many turns not shooting, and not falling back because he'd just charge me again.

Found it odd that big guns offered no VP for killing superheavies, I would have expected it to be 2 each.

Wow, thanks for sharing that battle report, I've almost heard nothing about the kill tanks being used in most games. What did you feel about them, outside of taking them as Blood Axes? Do you think they're better or worse than taking multiple Big Trakks with either Supa Kannons or Supa Skorchas?

yaknow i just assumed the Killtank could fall back and fire anyway....i never noticed that like the Gargsquig its for some fething reason missing that rule.
Baneblade has it and killtank is literally a baneblade with orky properties.

Do Killtanks really kill enough for 400+ points? seems a mad price tag for more or less 1 gun.

Speaking of FW, I hope someone fields a Garg squiggoth sometime just to destroy TFCs. 2 Supa lobbas could easily destroy a thunderfire cannon. 6d6 str 7, ap-2 shots. Make it Bad Moons w/ More Dakka and rain death on those annoying things.

Supa Lobbas are insanely expensive though
And the Gargsquig does not ignore heavy penalties so unless it doesnt move or you burn the cp for More Dakka its not gonna hit jack.

 Vineheart01 wrote:
Supa Lobbas are insanely expensive though
And the Gargsquig does not ignore heavy penalties so unless it doesnt move or you burn the cp for More Dakka its not gonna hit jack.

I think it's roughly 500 points for the kit w/ 2 supa lobbas, it's pretty bonkers. Yeah, it's insane it can't move and shoot heavy weapons or fallback and shoot like the Mork/Gork/Stompa. Probably an omission at this point.

I'm not sure if it's good, but it would be satisfying... If you could somehow hide it and just force them to approach it and charge if they got close. 35 wounds, and it's shooting remains the same regardless of wound profile.

Somewhat sadly, that might literally be the best tech we got against TFC or whirlwinds. Artillery fights artillery.

Although the Big Trakk is 170 points, and can take a 2d6, 48", str 6, ap-1, 1D Lobba. Doesn't degrade either in shooting ability. 15 wounds.

35 wounds for 400 points can be worth in some cases in 3000p matches, I would buy it but it's so expensive

Nothing more salty than playing your first ork list since CA19 and rolling 8 1s when your flashgit trukk blows up (2 ammo runts so 12 dice)....

Was actually expecting an ideal testing ground since the new guy i never faced before apparently runs numbered primaris marines. Saw his list and went "Cool, i has flash gitz, 2 KBBs, and rokkits all over."

Killed 3 hellblasters with those + 30 boyz, lost half my list because i didnt roll a single save (not joking, both KBBs and my Gork were under the KFF and they didnt pass a single one before dying), lost both ammo runts and 6 gitz when the trukk blew up. I cant even call that a bad game...that was beyond abysmal.
Dont think ive ever rolled so bad.

Kebabcito wrote:
I seriously doubt the simulation is well done.

It simulates 100,000 time exactly the attack sequence as 40k rules tell it to do. Then to make sure I run it 3 times and take the middle result.

It's not hard to do.

tneva82 wrote:

Kebabcito wrote:
I seriously doubt the simulation is well done.

It simulates 100,000 time exactly the attack sequence as 40k rules tell it to do. Then to make sure I run it 3 times and take the middle result.

It's not hard to do.

It just occurred to me on the way to work, 100k might not be enough simulations to get close enough to get proper results. Even for just one shot, you have >50k possible results, for 2d6 shots the number is insanely large. Maybe throw your simulation in a background process and check back after a week or so?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Also, just for the record, some sad news:

We are now in the fourth week of 0 orks placing in the top 4 of any GT.

tulun wrote:
Do Killtanks really kill enough for 400+ points? seems a mad price tag for more or less 1 gun.

.

1 gun, firing 6D6 shots at BS4+ with dakkax3, it's a pretty sweet gun. I was rolling mid-20's for its shots most of the game. It's also 24 wounds at T8, and does D3 mortal wounds on the charge (if you don't fluff your rolls...)

It's not going to slot into any list - but if you build a T7+ army of tanks, it will fit well. Important things to remember:

1: Bursta gun is not a powerful weapon. It's purpose is to inflict overkill on elite units, not to rip tanks apart, despite the S10 AP-4. Damage 2 is for killing primaris marines. My opponents utility was dramatically reduced when 2 of his units vanished on him.

2: It's not a gun platform - units hit on 6's off the back of a killtank, so unless you run Burnas (why??), you want to use it for delivering units, not taxiing them. Nobs and Meganobs are prime options for this.

3: Run them bloodaxe! It's a unit that wants to charge for D3 mortal wounds and 8 S10 attacks hitting on 3+, wants to shoot, and will draw fire from turn 1. turn 1 cover and fall-back & shoot/charge is invaluable for this many points that want to multi-task. The units it wants to bring inside it won't benefit much from other cultures either, they won't be mass-shooty, or even any good at shooting. Tankbustas worked but they would benefit bloodaxe if the enemy tries to lock them in CC. If you want to avoid combat, they can stay over 18" away and still have range to shoot, keeping the cover. Best culture for these, in my mind.


In a few games I will try out a single one in a game. I ran it in my first ever 8th edition game, and it was the only thing left in my army. I lost that game, but made heaps of mistakes, so I'm not surprised!

New time I play, it's trukks. Maybe I'll count out & repair my bikes (broken in house move / old, partial models from job lots) and see how a bike-heavy list plays out. I may need another wartrike, for thematic reasons...

Now, Photos of the game (unashamedly unpainted, I have very little hobby time any more :( )

You might have found the one use for blood axes

 Grimskul wrote:
Wow, thanks for sharing that battle report, I've almost heard nothing about the kill tanks being used in most games. What did you feel about them, outside of taking them as Blood Axes? Do you think they're better or worse than taking multiple Big Trakks with either Supa Kannons or Supa Skorchas?

I've not played multiple big trakks, yet, though I have enough models to run 3-4 of them. I may build a list around them for a future game - they used to be looted wagons with boom guns, supa-kannon trakks makes sense. I will report back once I've had a game with them. My main draw to big trakks is their speed and the supa-skorcha, so I'll have to build more skorcha turrets for 2 of each.

I think the kill tanks main advantage is their resilience and pre-bracket 4+ to hit, plus their cost being maybe only slightly too high for their worth, unlike the stompa. You're unlikely to do a lot of winning in the knight meta, but my meta's still a bit old-school TAC.

Now that I consider my model collection, I have a 4th large tank which could readily be a killtank - my profile picture one! I could run supreme command + superheavy detachment for 4 killtanks and 4 KFF meks (one mega), points permitting. That would be a laugh! with 4 units on the field, turn 1 is almost a given. bloodaxes stop them from being hard countered by their social anxiety (I can't shoot with that guardsman so close to me!).


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Jidmah wrote:
You might have found the one use for blood axes

Changing it from "oh no, better stand next to it!" to "Oh no, we have to kill it!" is worth losing other klan benefits - no use rerolling 1's or rerolling a single hit/wound/damage if you don't get to shoot!

Yes, I agree - it's just that blood axes are worthless for pretty much every other unit because few other ork units are ever in a situation where falling back is a serious option.