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 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
What's worrying me is the reports that are coming in of people who had the virus, then tested negative testing positive again several weeks later

If this is true it suggests either

1. a person might not totally clear the virus with a normal immune response meaning they'll come out of quarantine and potentially start spreading the virus again before they realise something is wrong (and subseqentyly people will need to be quarantined for a lot longer)

or

2. The virus does not generate a strong immune response meaning you can catch it again very quickly after you've had it and also that man made vaccines could very well have similar problems (although they might be able to trick the immune system into a more long lasting response with a vaccine)

There was japanese woman who caught it second time. Tough luck

My boss's business travel to Seoul and Japan has been cancelled because the people he was going to meet will be in quarantine.

Meanwhile I'm on a rush job to make printable digital files of the first three units of a bunch of course books, because the physical printed books can't get out of China, where all our printing is done.

To put a human face on things, here is a piece written by a Chinese guy who caught it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/to-hell-and-back-my-three-weeks-suffering-from-coronavirus

Apparently the first death in the US just occurred. Elderly women in Washington.

 Grey Templar wrote:
Apparently the first death in the US just occurred. Elderly women in Washington.

Updated with a correction: 50 year old male (the error was the CDCs, not yours).

Once it reaches a hub for human trafficking we are toast!

 Ouze wrote:

 Grey Templar wrote:
Apparently the first death in the US just occurred. Elderly women in Washington.

Updated with a correction: 50 year old male (the error was the CDCs, not yours).

I think he also had the "Underlying Health Condition" before he caught the virus - something which most likely made him less able to fight off/survive this infection.

Some interesting data here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Basically, if you're "healthy" and catch the virus, death rate from:

AGE
0 - 9: no reported cases
10 - 19: 0.2%
20 - 29: 0.2%
30 - 39: 0.2%
40 - 49: 0.4%
50 - 59: 1.3%
60 - 69: 3.6%
70 - 79: 8.0%
80+ : 14.8%

(Data last updated Feb 29, 2020 at 4:40GMT)

If you have "underlying health conditions", that's where this one probably really kicks in hard.

Everything I've read is saying the usual "Flu Precautions" work here - wash your hands, don't touch your eyes/nose/mouth and avoid large crowds as much as possible.

 cuda1179 wrote:
Hypothetically, if the 2% mortality rate that the Chinese are saying is true, I don't think that number will be accurate for the US and Europe.

Nutrition, medical care, education, and clean air all play a part in how deadly this virus is, and how much it spreads. Since the Chinese populous is lower in all these levels I think it might be deadlier to them than others.

However, perhaps I'm wrong, this is just a leman's view.

Mortality is like 0.5% in South Korea, right?

This scaremongering is deplorable. We are sold out of disinfectants and face masks nation wide, scalpers are charging 10x the old price and denying them to those who actually need them all year round.

This disease is nothing special in the grand scheme of things. It's gonna join the current array of seasonal viruses and when it circles the globe a second time next winter it won't even make the news.

 lord_blackfang wrote:


This scaremongering is deplorable.

Read this:

Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’
Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

So. If 1% fatality holds and it reaches as many people as seasonal flu, we are talking approx 5 million deaths. At 0.5% 2.5 million deaths.
Allowing for the voracity of this infection, long incubation times, long infection latency and the chance of reinfection after exposure it could well be far worse than that.
Yes it is a threat, and no that isn't scaremongering.
Containment is a good idea.

Orlanth, that's probably correct if we don't find effective treatments and anti-virals for this.

Here in the states, we're actively trialing anti-virals at this moment:
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-treat-covid-19-begins

Vaccines are still at the experimental/development stages, but manufacturers are motivated (prolly at best 6 months away):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-first-coronavirus-vaccine-for-human-testing-11582579099

There *is* a bit of sensationalism with regards to covid-19 when you see the word pandemic and no vaccine. There are influenzes that are literally pandemics and certain strains where there are no vaccines for it, which has also caused over 80k deaths in the US alone this year.

Of course, we should be concerned and of course we should be exploring containment strategies. Especially those whom are already compromised and would be especially vulnerable. But, the "scaremongering" and "sensationalism" is a wee bit much.

The scare mongering about corona virus, encouraging people to behave in sanitary fashion might end up saving lives that would have otherwise been lost to more ‘mundane’ causes, such as flu and so on?

My work just put out a travel ban....

People have went nuts buying out stuff in Australia after media fearmongers put out a list of stuffs stock that would be effected by the virus. Also disaster profiteers trying to flip toilet paper and hand sanitizer.
Someone even stabbed someone with a knife in the toilet paper aisle of a supermarket today.

 Dropbear Victim wrote:
People have went nuts buying out stuff in Australia after media fearmongers put out a list of stuffs stock that would be effected by the virus. Also disaster profiteers trying to flip toilet paper and hand sanitizer.

That's... pretty weird. Toliet paper seems utterly unrelated, and the frequent medical advice here (from various gov't and media doctors') doesn't mention hand sanitizer at all. They skip it and suggest frequent hand washing... with soap and water.

Like the masks, they're pretty dubious on the effects on hand sanitizer.



@Easy E- who do you work for that they have the authority to issue travel bans? And where are they banning?

For Hand Sanitizer its the perception that it is helpful. Frankly I'm of the opinion that it contributes to super bugs. Only useful if in need of a quick clean and can't use a sink.

With Toilet paper its one of those products that always becomes scarce in the event of any emergency. Bottled Water and Toilet paper are the most common things that sell out in a disaster.

The toilet paper thing is apprently down to a bogus rumor about it being produced in China, and the factories have been affected by the manpower crisis due to quarantines etc. We've got the same situation here. Sold out for a while.

My company has pulled out of London Book Fair, cancelled the stand and all meetings. No staff are to attend.

We are the third medium size publisher to pull out.

I suspect it will get cancelled.

One of the major computer game fairs has also cancelled/delayed. Apparently they are not only refunding tickets, but there's also a collection going on with them and the bigger companies attending in order to help out smaller and indie firms who were going to attend in order to cover the costs of things outside of the ticket. All the banners/equipment etc... that they have to invest in to put on a stall. Small costs for the big names, but for indies they can be a considerable investment.
https://www.pcgamer.com/uk/the-gdc-relief-fund-is-raising-money-for-indies-affected-by-the-postponement/


So its not all doom and gloom and its nice to see the games industry taking a step to help the smaller names through what is (hopefully and likely) going to be a short term blip in terms of conventions and events.

nareik wrote:
The scare mongering about corona virus, encouraging people to behave in sanitary fashion might end up saving lives that would have otherwise been lost to more ‘mundane’ causes, such as flu and so on?

Incidentally cases of influence in Japan went this year to 1/10 of usual this time of a year...

London Book Fair has been cancelled after a bunch of medium and large publishers pulled out.

tneva82 wrote:

nareik wrote:
The scare mongering about corona virus, encouraging people to behave in sanitary fashion might end up saving lives that would have otherwise been lost to more ‘mundane’ causes, such as flu and so on?

Incidentally cases of influence in Japan went this year to 1/10 of usual this time of a year...

The smaller predatory flu viruses have obviously fled their usual hunting grounds scared off by an invasive new pred ~ Coronazilla!

It's a shame so many conventions are closing down, however some can hopefully adjust to a new time slot; for those closed I just hope they don't collapse until next year.

Really hard hit will be the small time attending companies and people. Those who might have pinned major launches of their products at these events.

 Dropbear Victim wrote:


@Easy E- who do you work for that they have the authority to issue travel bans? And where are they banning?

To clarify, work related travel ban.... personally I can go wherever I want.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
London Book Fair has been cancelled after a bunch of medium and large publishers pulled out.

My brother works for a company in the trade show business. They have had to lay off almost all staff with business going away completely as more companies are either canceling their attendance in shows or shows canceling completely.

Thus far, despite multiple confirmed cases in town and a half dozen deaths a couple hours north in Seattle, my office remains open and unfazed, while our annual trade show on the east coast has gone off without issue.

Our supply chain people however are making noises about supplier shortages and disruptions. Delays will shortly start to make themselves felt.

My cousins wife is a doctor, and neither one of them are bothered about this. And seeing what germaphobes they usually are, I find that significant.

I’ve had a slight runny nose today, 5 days after being exposed to that halfwit coworker, but that doesn’t seem to be one of the symptoms. Cough, sore throat, headaches, fever, but not a runny nose. And I almost always get a runny nose at this time of year anyway.

Exactly!

I imagine as many parts of the world enter seasonal allergy pollen season...

 Dropbear Victim wrote:

tneva82 wrote:

nareik wrote:
The scare mongering about corona virus, encouraging people to behave in sanitary fashion might end up saving lives that would have otherwise been lost to more ‘mundane’ causes, such as flu and so on?

Incidentally cases of influence in Japan went this year to 1/10 of usual this time of a year...

The smaller predatory flu viruses have obviously fled their usual hunting grounds scared off by an invasive new pred ~ Coronazilla!

Haha. I suspect craze over corona has rather made people take extra care with hygiene with people washing hands ridiculously lot, avoiding large crowds etc thus doing what would cut down influenca down on any year.

At least that's my guess on the reason. People are doing what they can to avoid the new craze advertised on the news and steps that help vs that also happens to help vs influence.

BTW out of curiosity what was the period person who has caught the virus can infect others? Just wondering is there even remote chance I might carry it having met with person who came from Japan from Sapporo snow festival where are confirmed cases of corona.

Not worried though as a) it's about(I think tad more) since she was at the festival and b) I'm not on big danger group anyway. Would suck to get any kind of flu AGAIN Last month there was literally not a week I wasn't at least 1 day suffering from one kind of a bug. Should have taken rest properly and not get back to work too soon.

Boss freaked out more of that meeting though Then again he's on the age where mortality rate starts to climb so he has at least more of a reason to worry. Well as said it's quite a while since possible infection plus no symptoms on her or any of her family in this time. Doctors weren't even interested testing her out(in Finland unless you have been to Wuhan or those north italian towns don't bother to ask for checks seems to be policy)

First case just confirmed in Slovenia, a tourist recently back from Morocco via Italy. Waited until it was visually obvious that he was sick, then said SCREW PROTOCOL, I'M A BOOMER, and went to a waiting room in a general hospital, got the doctor and nurse quaranteened

You know, the funny thing is that if the coronavirus turns out to be a bust in terms of infection rate and so on (which I am sure we are all hoping for), cancelling big public events and more diligent public hygiene probably means less people getting the flu (and dying from it).

So, lemons out of lemonade!

 Alpharius wrote:
Exactly!

I imagine as many parts of the world enter seasonal allergy pollen season...

Yes indeed. I've had cold like symptoms for a couple of weeks.

Back to relevant news, my company has told all staff over 60 to work from home.