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 CptJake wrote:
I think ANY reopening, no matter how long you wait to initiate it, is going to see a sharp increase in cases. As long as the virus is still out there, once people start leaving their houses and interacting, you are going to see more transmissions.

We have Started reopening some days ago specific buissness that is, and have not yet recived an uptick.

Make it or break it will be May 11. Then all Shops and Restaurant s will reopen with conditions of course.

Not Online!!! wrote:

 CptJake wrote:
I think ANY reopening, no matter how long you wait to initiate it, is going to see a sharp increase in cases. As long as the virus is still out there, once people start leaving their houses and interacting, you are going to see more transmissions.

We have Started reopening some days ago specific buissness that is, and have not yet recived an uptick.

It takes ca.14 days to register a bit and probably minimum three weeks to really know if there's been much of an effect. Not saying you're definitely getting one, but if you were you could not know it yet.

nfe wrote:

Not Online!!! wrote:

 CptJake wrote:
I think ANY reopening, no matter how long you wait to initiate it, is going to see a sharp increase in cases. As long as the virus is still out there, once people start leaving their houses and interacting, you are going to see more transmissions.

We have Started reopening some days ago specific buissness that is, and have not yet recived an uptick.

It takes ca.14 days to register.

aye which is why the next step is on 11.th.

I am carefully optimistic for the first step not much is happening, however the step at 11. will be bigger, i do hope that with enforced standards and cooperation that it will not just grow exponentially but i have a feeling that this ain't happenening.

Also what was that last page with the french influenza cases?

UK gov still implying a change on Sunday but refusing to clarify anything, meaning the papers are filling the void with speculation so they have something to print before Monday. As such, we have print media, which people pay more attention to than government announcements, telling everyone that it's a free for all from Monday and you're welcome to go hang out with your pals.

The actual announcement will be a very subtle change, but I'll bet parks and streets are busy next week regardless.

And in news that surprise exactly nobody. After germany eased up restrictions there's surge of new cases.

Surprise surprise not. The obvious inevitable happened.

Easing restrictions does not mean we must go out.
I expect to stay at home after the relaxing. WFH and limited trips makes sense until the vaccine appears. Luckily, I can, so I probably will.

tneva82 wrote:
And in news that surprise exactly nobody. After germany eased up restrictions there's surge of new cases.

Surprise surprise not. The obvious inevitable happened.

source? cases have increased (which is normal) but I'd hardly call it a surge.

 Ouze wrote:
I hear about states being forced to bid against each other for PPE for their front line healthcare workers and I get so angry; how did we get here?

It gets worse seeing as a lot of PPE ordered by the states has been intercepted by the federal government and seized with no warning.

 Skinnereal wrote:
Easing restrictions does not mean we must go out.
I expect to stay at home after the relaxing.

So do I, but the press is pushing the 'FREEDOM!' angle hard and people pay attention to them. Star, Mail, Mirror, Express, Sun, Telegraph, and i all have variations on that theme as front page headlines today. All bar the i and Telegraph also have a celebrity losing weight taking up the rest of the front page. 30,000 dead only makes the cover of the Metro.

 Skinnereal wrote:
Easing restrictions does not mean we must go out.
I expect to stay at home after the relaxing. WFH and limited trips makes sense until the vaccine appears. Luckily, I can, so I probably will.

*if

A vaccine appears. considering the successes(or lack thereof) of vaccinations against the 6 other Coronavirus, I'm not banking on it. I believe it will eventually become endemic

Something people seem to have missed with the talk of easing restrictions in the UK is the timescale. The PM has said he will make an announcement on Sunday. This 4 days on from when the lock down measures must be legally reviewed. This says to me the lock down will be extended for another 3 weeks but with some minor easements to be announced. The PM Stated following his address on Sunday he hoped that changes to our lock down could begin as soon as the next day. No business can react that quickly so this tells me the easing will be mostly social measures. My best guess would be lifting the restrictions on the use of parks (not playgrounds), travel to outdoor tourist attractions such as national parks, and being able to see close family members. Expect social distancing to remain. Anything business based is likely to follow in the weeks after and will allow premises which can control there operations easily to reopen. Salons who can operate by appointment only and with one customer at a time. Garden centres which are predominantly outside and can introduce social distancing measures relatively easily. We can expect to see detailed guidance on how these retailers should operate and fines for those who don't follow them. Retailers who can carry out there business online with little difference to a traditional shop experience will probably stay shut (clothing and electronic retailers). Other sectors such as bars, restaurants and clubs will not want to open with social distancing a requirement as there overheads would make opening more expensive than staying shut

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
I believe it will eventually become endemic

Morbidity isn't high enough, we will still lose a sizeable percentage of our elderly and vulnerable, but it's not the end days.

I remember Trump asking people "what do you have to lose?", now we know - your health, livelihood, security and finally your life.

 squilverine wrote:
Something people seem to have missed with the talk of easing restrictions in the UK is the timescale [snip]

I'm not sure who is missing any of that? I think that's pretty universally known to be the case. A general softening of social distancing. I would expect some movement of some businesses, however, as giving information on a Sunday to allow for businesses to be aware for the start of the working week is Johnson's only defence for making a public announcement before informing the house.

There will be a surge to parks and a stack of parties the following weekend.

I’ve been hearing a few people saying that a vaccine may never come. I really hope that isn’t the case because if so, then what?

 Skinnereal wrote:
Easing restrictions does not mean we must go out.
I expect to stay at home after the relaxing. WFH and limited trips makes sense until the vaccine appears. Luckily, I can, so I probably will.

Yeah the economy won't be going blooming just because goverment removes restrictions as people will still be worried and avoid it(sensible).

As it is it's more of removing need for goverment and insurance companies to pay compensation. You aren't forbidden to stay open. If nobody just comes tough luck. That's business


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 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Ouze wrote:
I hear about states being forced to bid against each other for PPE for their front line healthcare workers and I get so angry; how did we get here?

It gets worse seeing as a lot of PPE ordered by the states has been intercepted by the federal government and seized with no warning.

And that after been told it's job of state to buy supplies, not for federal govemrent to give them

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Ouze wrote:
I hear about states being forced to bid against each other for PPE for their front line healthcare workers and I get so angry; how did we get here?

It gets worse seeing as a lot of PPE ordered by the states has been intercepted by the federal government and seized with no warning.

And a lot of the PPE the UK Gov has bought isn't any good - BBC.

nfe wrote:

 squilverine wrote:
Something people seem to have missed with the talk of easing restrictions in the UK is the timescale [snip]

I'm not sure who is missing any of that? I think that's pretty universally known to be the case. A general softening of social distancing. I would expect some movement of some businesses, however, as giving information on a Sunday to allow for businesses to be aware for the start of the working week is Johnson's only defence for making a public announcement before informing the house.

There will be a surge to parks and a stack of parties the following weekend.

What I meant is I feel people are concentrating on which shops/businesses will open and maybe missing the practicalities involved. Currently there is no guidance for how non essential retailers will operate. Yes we can make educated guesses but as I said there are likely to be strict guidelines which will require time for businesses to implement. That's what led me to my belief that any announcements on Sunday regarding easements will be social measures not necessarily business. People are missing that point. There are huge amounts of people, spurred on by false information and wishful thinking, who somehow believe the entire lock down will be lifted on Monday. Regardless of which measures are or aren't adapted people will flout them as they have with the ones in place now. I would imagine this is taken into account when considering which restrictions to lift.
I think you are quite right we will see a big surge in use of recreational spaces and gatherings of all sorts, however this will Peter out once the novelty of seeing people has work off

tneva82 wrote:
And in news that surprise exactly nobody. After germany eased up restrictions there's surge of new cases.

Surprise surprise not. The obvious inevitable happened.

Got a source for that? Doesn't seem like there's been enough time since the easing of restrictions to come to that conclusion. We'll only really get a sense of the impact of lifting restrictions about two weeks from now, which is why I think the UK government might be better waiting to see what happens in places like Italy and Germany before making a decision.

I want to see a source for that too.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
I’ve been hearing a few people saying that a vaccine may never come. I really hope that isn’t the case because if so, then what?

It becomes endemic, and we have to live with it, but this requires at least some build up of immunity in the population to keep the R0 at around 1.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Future War Cultist wrote:
I want to see a source for that too.

Good luck...

Had to walk through my local shopping centre for banking purposes, and noted allot of closed shops have shelves with stock on that wasn't there before or people stocking shelves or notices indicating a return come Monday.
Some shops have relaxed allot of customer limits too and twice as many were in the food and drug stores.
Also allot more people waiting in the bus station than normally.

Allot of excitement for Monday.
So start expecting cases and deaths to rise again... Well... Deaths at least since we don't bother testing until you're a corpse...

Oh and with KFC nearby opening up the roads are clogged for hours

 Future War Cultist wrote:
I’ve been hearing a few people saying that a vaccine may never come. I really hope that isn’t the case because if so, then what?

Track and trace and isolate becomes the only viable solution. Focusing resources on testing the population to the point where you can basically isolate the infected until the virus runs its course and is no longer infectious. Repeating that for every single outbreak until you've got it under control to the point where there are no more outbreaks.

The problems there are un-monitored segments of the population where it could hide and migration of people from outside into the country. Through both official and unofficial channels. You'd have to screen people on flights and ships and likely have to require people to be tested before trips both in and out of the country.

Such a system only works now if the whole world gets involved, which would mean once developed countries complete their testing phase, they'd have to then supply tests and medical resources to poorer nations; likely focusing on top holiday destinations first and then filtering down from there.


The only reason that isn't practical right at the start is because the populations around the world are so mobile that by the itme we've got to the point where we've enough kits and infrastructure to properly start testing - the population has already moved and spread the virus around.
The risk with this approach is that once you start to relax you can get infection spikes strike up anywhere. The other risk is that a country manages to contain things really really well so the majority of the population isn't exposed, but then travel to/from other countries brings the virus in and it slips past testing at the point of arrival/departure and enters the population that way.


Of course the other approach is herd immunity. Letting the virus burn through the population at a slow steady rate (multiple lockdowns and relaxes) so that in the end the majority have been exposed and are no longer cable of being infected and incapacitated. Of course this runs a risk of a higher death rate. Even if you keep numbers below capacity for hospitals it means exposing more vulnerable people in the population. It is potentially faster than some of the other approaches or more reliable.




Track and trace can work; however you need a proper system in place and many countries just don't have it. Plus there are rights issues with regard to tracking your population on such a high level that many nations might not agree with. Meanwhile many poorer nations might well lack things like an effective mobile phone network through a majority of its population to allow for a proper track and trace to even function.

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
It becomes endemic, and we have to live with it.

Doesn’t really bare thinking about tbh...

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
Good luck...

Oh I know. I’m just gathering evidence.

German cases did leap up end of April/start of this month but it's too early to be related to lockdown easing and their overall trend is still downward.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

 Future War Cultist wrote:

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
It becomes endemic, and we have to live with it.

Doesn’t really bare thinking about tbh...

Well, we can hope that it will mutate into a somewhat less lethal strain, in order to keep propagating as people develop immunity. in that case it would become similar to the flu(in terms of how it appears, before anyone murders me with 'its not the flu!'), likely with seasonal spikes due to immune responses, but considering that most healthy people pass through it relatively unharmed, this may not happen. this is what is usually meant by the 'herd immunity' approach. this phrase generates controversy right now, even though it should be at least factored into any strategy. the more healthy people who can contract it, recover and develop immunity should decrease the R0. there are risks of course, but compared to the other options, it doesnt seem a massive stretch worse to me. Corona virus(in general terms) immunity does seem to be short lived, but exposure does seem to at least leave the body better prepared even if immune antibodies do disappear over time.

Mutation in the positive direction toward a less lethal strain is what we'd all hope would happen. Of course mutation is not a perfect process and it could just as easily become more benign as it could become more lethal. Also don't forget many who die from it aren't dying from Corona directly; its other sickness that gets them at the same time.

So even if Corona becomes "less deadly" it might still have a high death rate due to associated sickness.



Indeed something like a safer pneumonia inoculation could be a bigger life saver. I'm given to understand that the current pneumonia jab has long term side effects, hence why its only provided to the aged where those long term effects are basically not considered a high risk.

 Overread wrote:

 Future War Cultist wrote:
I’ve been hearing a few people saying that a vaccine may never come. I really hope that isn’t the case because if so, then what?

Track and trace and isolate becomes the only viable solution. Focusing resources on testing the population to the point where you can basically isolate the infected until the virus runs its course and is no longer infectious. Repeating that for every single outbreak until you've got it under control to the point where there are no more outbreaks.

And you think humans will do that forever until humans are extinct(or somebody comes with vaccine after all).

If there's no vaccine then humans will simply have to learn with it like influenza etc. It will be another disease that will spread time to time between humans killing some, causing damage to others etc. Average life span will likely drop but track, trace and generation after generation? Nope not working.

Herd immunity idea is pipe dream. That hasn't happened before without vaccine and so far tests don't show at all good idea for that. Only tiny miniscule amount of people are tested with any form of immunity and how strong that is...Other corona viruses don't give permanent immunity anyway.

tneva82 wrote:

 Overread wrote:

 Future War Cultist wrote:
I’ve been hearing a few people saying that a vaccine may never come. I really hope that isn’t the case because if so, then what?

Track and trace and isolate becomes the only viable solution. Focusing resources on testing the population to the point where you can basically isolate the infected until the virus runs its course and is no longer infectious. Repeating that for every single outbreak until you've got it under control to the point where there are no more outbreaks.

And you think humans will do that forever until humans are extinct(or somebody comes with vaccine after all).

If there's no vaccine then humans will simply have to learn with it like influenza etc. It will be another disease that will spread time to time between humans killing some, causing damage to others etc. Average life span will likely drop but track, trace and generation after generation? Nope not working.

Herd immunity idea is pipe dream. That hasn't happened before without vaccine and so far tests don't show at all good idea for that. Only tiny miniscule amount of people are tested with any form of immunity and how strong that is...Other corona viruses don't give permanent immunity anyway.

Are you going to post your source or sources on your claims over Germany or are you just wasting everyone’s time?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Analysis of the data is mixed. Germany relaxed restrictions 2 weeks ago ( https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/germany-relaxes-virus-rules-fallback-clause-70535448 ), so there should be the initial surge of new cases happening- but daily new cases still looks relatively low (1155, as opposed to their peak of 6933). It will be very interesting to see if this indicates a true increase in the curve, or if it is just one of the fluctuations that happen in the graph historically.

Weirdly though, the daily death total spiked quite high- 282, which is pretty close to their darkest days 333. I don't understand why that would be the case.

I'm not trying to support or oppose the Germany claim, but I'm hoping their situation will help us know what to expect as the USA opens up.

Black people in UK 'twice as likely to die' from Covid-19

Robert Cuffe

BBC head of statistics

Black men and women are nearly twice as likely to die with Covid-19 as their white counterparts, according to new analysis from the Office for National Statistics.

The analysis combines data on Covid-19 deaths with information on ethnicity from the 2011 Census.

It takes account of age, where people live and some measures of deprivation, disadvantage and health. After adjusting for all these factors, black men and women were 90% more likely to die with Covid-19 than white people.

Men and women from Indian, Bangladeshi and Pakistani communities were also at higher risk than white people, though not by as much with the data showing their increased risk was between 30- 80%.

But an analysis based on the census data cannot fully explain the reasons for the higher risk because it does not take into account people’s current health, if they are in more crowded living conditions, are exposed to the virus through front-line roles - or other differences between communities that can increase risk.

from the BBC, the statisticians have now been able to crunch the number over what had been apparent at an anecdotal level and strip out a lot (but not all) of the variables that might effect things and black and some other ethnic minorities do seem to die at much higher rates than white sufferers (and chinese seem do die at a lower rate although the stats aren't as clear)

now this is based on data from the 2011 census so they haven't been able to remove heath effects that developed in the last 9 years such as heart attacks, becoming diabetic etc (and black people do suffer more from those) so expect the numbers to come closer together, but it still looks likely to me that there is probably a real biological effect too