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I find GW to be in a really interesting position right now. They've managed to largely shrug off the impact of both Brexit and Covid (from a macro perspective) and still continue to grow revenues but they must be getting close to maximising what they can earn from the tabletop market unless they break East Asia (unlikely) or saturate the US/Western Europe to the same level as the UK (unlikely).

Who in the fandom is able to keep up with their releases for anything more than one or two game systems at stands? I can't imagine there being much space for any other games to come out, noting The Old World must be nearing and will increase the saturation amongst hardcore fans/squeeze the last revenue out of the existing market. Maybe they might be able to squeeze in a Battlefleet Gothic or another equivalent specialist game at most.

A 3rd party IP game could potentially bring in a lot of new customers but I don't see GW doing that any time soon, given it takes time away from their core company owned lines and they are already running a 3rd party IP line.

Seems to me like the main area of potential revenue growth and the only real avenue for large scale revenue growth left to the company is TV. If the Eisenhorn series continues to progress in development and can get onto Amazon Prime/Netflix, then this could create the mainstream attention to increase sales beyond the traditional market (like video games did) but beyond this it feels like GW is going to struggle, it's current market is already quite saturated.

I suspect that if Eisenhorn actually makes it to Amazon Prime or Netflix, the sheer amount of demand for the novels and then the miniatures will lead a renaissance for GW.

For example: Game of Thrones, the Witcher, Umbrella Academy...each of these were established products until streaming made the interest go nuts.

And will hopefully lead to a well done Horus Heresy movie decology.

New push fit less options dont fit well with the price tag and type of game.
Also bad design is bad I mean shoulder pads split in two or capes split in funny ways etc regardless of multipart vs push fits debate.
Lack of understanding of the material limits regarding fragility, like the so debated new skeleton legs is not acceptable.
So yeah loads of great kits contra balance that stuff but I dont think one method fits all kits types and I think that kits simplified 2 piece designs has more to do with stopping you and me converting things our way and is preparing the way to the future where GW will sell units of 10 orKs with only 1 weapon type and then another unit of same OrKs with another weapon type. Marine formula.

 Manfred von Drakken wrote:
When I read, "...equates to [GBP]15,000..." I see it as the average payment, not one that everybody gets. I mean, I can't imagine them giving the executives the same bonus as the guy that puts sprues in boxes.

GW has 2436 employees. The average is in favour of the lower-paid workers than executives. And IIRC the last time this was in the news, it was made clear that all employees received the same bonus from top to bottom.

I think GW still has plenty of growth room in the USA, how easily they can tap into that is hard to guess at. We know they tried and failed to run local production because they found there just wasn't a skill base in the USA nor a support network for their machines so it meant constantly moving staff and machines around between USA and UK. Now it might be with more contacts and time they might source a better local approach to moving some machines to the USA for production

Then again they've expanded at Nottingham and expanded their overseas warehouse to hold more stock. In theory once shipping and corona work measures are no longer issues for them (and the rest of the world) they can most likely have some head room.

Lets not forget they've a new factory - the only reason they can't keep up right now is they can't run their operation at full capacity due to Corona. So in theory they might still have head-room once things settle.


That said they are more market limited than some other brands. At the same time even if they hit saturation that really only affects increasing profits; their company makes more than a healthy income to run steady for a good many years without seeing fast increase; and that's ignoring tactical price rises for profit/inflation

I think GW is going to focus on licencing their IPs rather than to expand in new markets

of course there is room to grow for the wargaming and boardgame market, but outside the GW bubble the competition is much stronger and costumers much more sensitive to prizes and quality of gameplay

trying to get into a new market with the usual price increase while at the same time having low quality rules can backfire and their trip to China looks like not working because of that

so the miniature market size is at a comfortable size for GW, no need to change that if you still can make more profit by just selling the IP

And selling the IP is basically a win win for GW as they take on zero risk with regard to investment and if the other product fails, it just vanishes. Look at all the poor grade Video games that might net a small interested market for themselves, but otherwise just get forgotten in favour of the good releases.

The only time it could backfire is if GW started selling the IP to people who used it rather like Hollywood does - ergo title and a few names but not really sticking to the theme/storyline/lore of the setting. And from what we know GW is much more hands on with that in general.


Which isn't to say every 3rd party item is a perfect depiction of the IP. Gladius and Battlefleet Gothic both tell generally non-cannon stories and take liberties with the IP to make the games "work". But they work within the feel and ethos of the IP and stick to enough of the core that they aren't a problem.

as how often GW themselves changes the background and feeling of the setting, not a real issue if a Hollywood movie gets it wrong, as with the new Edition/Codex the fluff changes anyway and is forgotten (and what people thinks a Space Marines is and what the fluff say it is, is already different for those who play the games)

 kodos wrote:

we are in the process of creating a community outreach team, to work with and support creators and prominent community members who champion the Warhammer hobby outside of our own pages and spaces.

Let us introduce this new team of 10 well paid lawyers and 5 hobby experts to seek out all the hobby content on Youtube, Patreon, FB and other social media platforms to make sure they get the attention they deserve

Considering the number of youtube channels they brought down in the past 3 months I wouldn't be surprised!


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Sacredroach wrote:
I suspect that if Eisenhorn actually makes it to Amazon Prime or Netflix, the sheer amount of demand for the novels and then the miniatures will lead a renaissance for GW.

For example: Game of Thrones, the Witcher, Umbrella Academy...each of these were established products until streaming made the interest go nuts.

And will hopefully lead to a well done Horus Heresy movie decology.

Wheel of Time departs from the books a lot, but that Amazon money made for a good show so far.

Really surprised that AOS was supposedly their best fantasy release by a wide margin. seems like it was a bit of a flop considering all the unsold boxes we heard about. I wonder if it's corporate talk or if the sales were indeed a lot strongerthan it seems. A shame that they don't show sales by system.

Congrats to GW for the constant growth, and the employee bonus is a realy nice touch

The only real flop was that they undersold, however don't forget

1) 3rd parties were selling boxes not because they flat out weren't selling, but because they weren't selling fast enough. They were only clearing stock to clear inventory money and some of that was only a few weeks after the launch. That's insanely fast discounting for almost any market and I think was more sparked by the current climate shutting down many of those stores and limited in-person shopping and such through the year as well as over-buying.

2) The overbuying/supply was clearly based on Indomitus from the year before and it somewhat backfired; but considering its an edition set so has at least 3-4 years before its "totally out of date" its not a bad run and GW should't lose money on it.

3) Even if it under-sold as a set, it still sold really well; plus they mentioned it as an annual block of sales so they include everything else; one set not outselling isn't that bad when the whole range is selling strong.

question is, does GW count copies going to 3rd party stores as sales?
I guess so because they don't have the data if the store sold all his copies unless they order more

Also on the Dominion front, many folks probably realized that they needed far fewer figures and that 2 Dominion box sets were sufficient given the new reinforcement rules.

The side effect is that getting into either Stormcast or Orcs has a very low entry price.

 kodos wrote:
question is, does GW count copies going to 3rd party stores as sales?
I guess so because they don't have the data if the store sold all his copies unless they order more

They absolutely count them, they're recorded separately from direct sales (and are called, unsurprisingly, indirect sales) but they still count.

They basically then don't give a gak what happens to them, if the guy has a storage unit full of them then it doesn't matter, from the GW perspective the units are sold.

I think if Eisenhorn is done right it will be huge and I think that's something they are counting on. You have to assume they'll keep a tight grip on it because of the potential to feth it up so highly.

I would guess the success of total war in bringing in non warhammer strategy players has made them realise other media can work in their favour.

 Azreal13 wrote:
They absolutely count them, they're recorded separately from direct sales (and are called, unsurprisingly, indirect sales) but they still count.

They basically then don't give a gak what happens to them, if the guy has a storage unit full of them then it doesn't matter, from the GW perspective the units are sold.

So it's like the comic book industry?

"Look how many copies we sold*!!!"


*to distributors...

I mean yeah because Distributors will only buy what they can sell. Yes GW can strongarm some sales onto them, but not forever. If the products don't sell well then 3rd parties can and will drop them; esp for Warhammer.

GW is not in the same position say the card games are in. I would imagine that GW can only strong-arm the odd product to 3rd parties, eg Edition Starters and such.



Otherwise the 3rd parties would start selling at-cost or not at all all the time and GW would fast see their 3rd party sales diminish. It's clearly a balancing act.






I don't know about comics, but that market is totally different.

 kodos wrote:
question is, does GW count copies going to 3rd party stores as sales?
I guess so because they don't have the data if the store sold all his copies unless they order more

Yes they do. Probably explains a lot

Good numbers again. Guess the “boycott” was the hot air we suspected

 JohnnyHell wrote:
Good numbers again. Guess the “boycott” was the hot air we suspected

BuT tHeIr StOcK pRiCeS!

 Overread wrote:
I mean yeah because Distributors will only buy what they can sell. Yes GW can strongarm some sales onto them, but not forever. If the products don't sell well then 3rd parties can and will drop them; esp for Warhammer

the option usually for 3rd party is to drop GW or buy the requested "core" products each month no matter if they can sell them or not

like, you know the new Start Collectiong boxes are going to sell well, to be able to buy them at distributer price you need to buy the specific amount of 40k and AoS Starter Boxes as well (and you are limited on the discount you can give on online sales)

It doesn't matter how those indirect copies are sold.
They are being sold, and they are being sold in a way that makes profits for both GW and the distributors. There's no reason not to count them in the report.

GW records more profits

.......slightly overweight man with faux accent jumping onto youtube to tell us...

gW iS DyINg ANd wE aRE wINning GUys

in 3.......2.......1.......

 JohnnyHell wrote:
Good numbers again. Guess the “boycott” was the hot air we suspected

{shrugs} What can I say, the eevil toy company kept making models I like.

If they'd just stop doing that my spending would decrease dramatically - (maybe) some paint now & then and the odd Codex/Battletome. Maybe a WD issue once in a while.
They seem to realize this though....

Spoletta wrote:
It doesn't matter how those indirect copies are sold.
They are being sold, and they are being sold in a way that makes profits for both GW and the distributors. There's no reason not to count them in the report.

this is not the point, it is how GW defines "best selling Fantasy release" as of course it is the best sold one if there were more copies than for any other fantasy box before and it does not matter if it sits on the shelf of 3rd party stores and GW itself sells it of at 50% discount

It’s a fair point, but this is a report into GWs financial performance over the past 6 months. It’s not an analysis of statistics relating to popularity in terms of games getting played. An industry wide survey of that information for all manufacturers would be amazing, it is probably difficult to achieve.

 Flinty wrote:
It’s a fair point, but this is a report into GWs financial performance over the past 6 months. It’s not an analysis of statistics relating to popularity in terms of games getting played. An industry wide survey of that information for all manufacturers would be amazing, it is probably difficult to achieve.

It would be hard indeed. I know GW's past surveys that they've sent out have included questions on when people last gamed and such, but that's pretty much data without any geographic reference. The hard part in sampling games actually played is tapping into the market who play at home or in private groups and such. Ergo the whole segment that's often "off grid". Not marketed, or shown off and just happens in private.

That said I'd wager the last two years would give really bad data for that because of all the lockdowns and such.

 H.B.M.C. wrote:

Games Workshop wrote:Our epic Horus Heresy novel series is drawing close to its galaxy changing conclusion...

I don't believe them.

Which part? Killing the golden goose? Yeah, hard to believe. I thought there was talk of Scouring to continue the series, but not sure if that has any substance or was just wishlisting.

I'm pretty sure GW threatened us with telling what really happened at the end of the Heresy when they started the siege of Terra series. There may actually be change on the wind in that regard...

 H.B.M.C. wrote:

 Azreal13 wrote:
They absolutely count them, they're recorded separately from direct sales (and are called, unsurprisingly, indirect sales) but they still count.

They basically then don't give a gak what happens to them, if the guy has a storage unit full of them then it doesn't matter, from the GW perspective the units are sold.

So it's like the comic book industry?

"Look how many copies we sold*!!!"


*to distributors...

To be clear, there's nothing dishonest about this metric.

Unless your company sells directly to consumers, measuring sales to distributors is a valid metric. Distributors don't buy your product to store it in warehouses. They buy units to sell to customers and there's no incentive for them to not sell.

I'd be more skeptical of any public company's direct sales figures. They have incentives to overstate / understate them, depending on what they want to see happen with the stock price. Apple stands out here, it's hard to square their manufacturing and sales figures.

 Azreal13 wrote:

 kodos wrote:
question is, does GW count copies going to 3rd party stores as sales?
I guess so because they don't have the data if the store sold all his copies unless they order more

They absolutely count them, they're recorded separately from direct sales (and are called, unsurprisingly, indirect sales) but they still count.

They basically then don't give a gak what happens to them, if the guy has a storage unit full of them then it doesn't matter, from the GW perspective the units are sold.

I haven't read the most recent report but I think its interesting to read GW's financial statements to investors to see the breakdown. I don't know if its still the case but for a while it broke down to 1/3 of sales by revenue were sales to consumers, 1/3 GW selling to wholesalers, and 1/3 as GW selling to retailers. And over time it fluctuates by about 10%-20% between those 1/3. But by sales volume sales to consumers only represented about 20% of their volume of product sold, while its been about 40% and 40% for retailers and wholesalers. Again it fluctuates.

To say GW doesn't care, might be overstating things a tiny bit. They don't care until they do. I've heard it a number of times from different retailers, that to get a retailer to setup an account directly with GW they'll buy back older unsold product at a percent that the retailer may have originally bought through wholesalers. GW puts a lot of emphasis on its brand image, so while sales and profit are important. GW really doesn't want to oversell and ever give the appearance their product doesn't sell.