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UNICEF has an appeal up, as this has just traumatised a generation of kids.

I had assumed that Russian arty and air power would absolutely stamp flat Ukraines defence lines and prevent tactical and strategic redeployment impossible. This does not appear to have happened effectively.

Ukrainian still has air presence. Russia failing to gain air superiority in the first day or two is a massive failure from objective perspective.

Alleged use of turkish/ukrainian TB2 drones.

Regarding russias commiting reserves - outsidr of the core (including chechen troops) the rest of the army seems to be very under trained and with poor leadership. Numbers wont count for much if they get bogged down in urban guirela warfare.

Also, consider the whole fear from nato paranoia. If they send the reserves will that not leave them open for potential counter attacks? Russia is not the only country that can send in "paramilitaries" claiming they are not their troops.

For all those wishing to help, here is a comprehensive and actual list of charities and funds that operate on site in Ukraine and Poland. There are a lot of direct funds, so you can decide if you want to aid offensive equipment, personal non-lethal equipment, humanitarian aid etc. One thing to note though - material aid is not the priority right now, the war fund is (as most of you can’t offer a roof for refugees for obvious reasons). Right now all storage in Przemyśl (the logistic center for Polish humanitarian aid) is filled up to the roof.

https://kporembinski.notion.site/kporembinski/Kompendium-Pomoc-dla-Ukrainy-36bf703e701a40589d9943c4059e8e4c

nou wrote:
For all those wishing to help, here is a comprehensive and actual list of charities and funds that operate on site in Ukraine and Poland. There are a lot of direct funds, so you can decide if you want to aid offensive equipment, personal non-lethal equipment, humanitarian aid etc. One thing to note though - material aid is not the priority right now, the war fund is (as most of you can’t offer a roof for refugees for obvious reasons). Right now all storage in Przemyśl (the logistic center for Polish humanitarian aid) is filled up to the roof.

https://kporembinski.notion.site/kporembinski/Kompendium-Pomoc-dla-Ukrainy-36bf703e701a40589d9943c4059e8e4c

Thank you Nou.

And a very good point, people love to give 'stuff' but really money is almost always the right donation. It's fungible, large organizations can get better buys than we can, and needs may rapidly change.

 Argive wrote:


Also, consider the whole fear from nato paranoia. If they send the reserves will that not leave them open for potential counter attacks? Russia is not the only country that can send in "paramilitaries" claiming they are not their troops.

UK has just approved private citizens to join Ukraines foreign legion.

DeathKorp_Rider wrote:

 Orlanth wrote:

DeathKorp_Rider wrote:
Yes hopefully the operation will end and Russia will pull back to the inside of the LPR and DPR soon and w can begin the process of rebuilding from this terrible conflict

Regime compliant comment.

The LPR and DPR do not exist. There is no 'operation' either, there is an invasion.

e.e

You’re missing the point where I said I hope this ends quickly

If it doesn't end quickly then Putin has lost the gamble that Ukraine will just surrender.
I doubt you motive for the invasion not ending quickly.

 Flinty wrote:

 Argive wrote:


Also, consider the whole fear from nato paranoia. If they send the reserves will that not leave them open for potential counter attacks? Russia is not the only country that can send in "paramilitaries" claiming they are not their troops.

UK has just approved private citizens to join Ukraines foreign legion.

Interesting. Is this on the MOD somewhere?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

nou wrote:
For all those wishing to help, here is a comprehensive and actual list of charities and funds that operate on-site in Ukraine and Poland. There are a lot of direct funds, so you can decide if you want to aid offensive equipment, personal non-lethal equipment, humanitarian aid etc. One thing to note though - material aid is not the priority right now, the war fund is (as most of you can’t offer a roof for refugees for obvious reasons). Right now all storage in Przemyśl (the logistic center for Polish humanitarian aid) is filled up to the roof.

https://kporembinski.notion.site/kporembinski/Kompendium-Pomoc-dla-Ukrainy-36bf703e701a40589d9943c4059e8e4c

Interesting. Our truck is heading for przemysl. We have received a different message from our target location. Apparently, only the first waves are coming through and likely millions more are on the way. Money won't be able to magic baby formula, nappies, necessities, and food out of the air. (Remember pandemic panic/ recent supply chain problems) I think przemysl will turn into a supply hub and stuff be sent to Ukraine or into Poland with refugees.

The president in Zamosc who we have been in touch with suggested throwing money at the problem is not necessary a long-term solution, and this problem is only begun. They have asked for nappies, children's clothing, and medical supplies rather than money from us. The wounded will start coming in soon. Medical supplies are being moved via Zamosc to Zulkiew/oblast region in Ukriane.

As long as everyone is trying to help I don't think it matters. Different areas will have different needs.

 Jadenim wrote:


I have noticed the lack of information compared to other recent conflicts; I have a suspicion that western media have been asked / have decided not to show anything that could be used by the Russians to aid their invasion (either as intelligence or propaganda).

Possibly.

The nature of the internet has also changed a lot since the last time a conflict like this was fought (the 2003 Invasion of Iraq and the 2008 invasion of Georgia). Camera phones and social media were still in their infancy then. Now they are ubiquitous. Both Russia and Ukraine seem to have taken notice of this and are trying to restrict their exposure online. What we're getting is mostly coming from civilians who are getting through the cyber-attacks and filters.

I don't think media has been asked not to show up. On the first day of the conflict a CNN reporter went to one of Keiv's airports and was invited in by Russian paratroopers who were holding it at the time and then ignored while they secured a perimeter. They were eventually forced back but for the most part western reporters haven't been getting updates from the Ukrainian government and the Russian government has been controlling what news outlets can say on their end. The Ukrainians seem far more focused on fighting than providing a stream of information to the news media. Zelenskyy's government has not been holding press briefings from what I can tell. They've been using social media to make statements but those are mostly focused on Ukrainians.

Massive respect to the Ukrainian people, they really seem to have rallied together in defiance of this outrage. I just hope that a way can be found out of this mess with the least amount of bloodshed (but unfortunately I think “least” isn’t going to be very small at this stage.)

I'll share this which I shared over on ETC.

One of Estonia's EU parliamentarians has shared what he claims in a Ukrainian intelligence report (presumably one presented to EU members about the situation). My post;

Probably also in the rumor category;

There's a long intel report reportedly from Ukraine about Putin and Russia's current position. According to the document, Putin is not happy that things aren't going well. They're not going well because, and this makes sense with what we're seeing so there may be some credence to it, Russia had no real plan other than 'invade' and had insufficient logistics set up to support the invasion. Russia has limited fuel, ammo, and food for its armies. The report purports that if Ukraine can hold out for ten days, Russia will be forced to draw back and negotiate more realistically as they lack the ability to replenish war materials domestically.

This information, assuming it really is from Ukrainian intelligence, would fit with what we've seen since the invasion started. Russia's offensive has been timid and poorly supplied and its attacks since the first 2 days seemingly without focus.

Grain of salt there because that presents a situation very optimistic for Ukraine and there's no real way to independently confirm this.

 Argive wrote:
Interesting. Is this on the MOD somewhere?

No, just Liz Truss spouting off in a TV interview. It's probably not indicative of actual UK government policy.

I would certainly not trust any assurances from the UK government on this, as they gleefully exploited anti-terrorism laws to prosecute people who went to fight alongside the Kurds against ISIS.

 Argive wrote:

 Flinty wrote:

 Argive wrote:


Also, consider the whole fear from nato paranoia. If they send the reserves will that not leave them open for potential counter attacks? Russia is not the only country that can send in "paramilitaries" claiming they are not their troops.

UK has just approved private citizens to join Ukraines foreign legion.

Interesting. Is this on the MOD somewhere?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

nou wrote:
For all those wishing to help, here is a comprehensive and actual list of charities and funds that operate on-site in Ukraine and Poland. There are a lot of direct funds, so you can decide if you want to aid offensive equipment, personal non-lethal equipment, humanitarian aid etc. One thing to note though - material aid is not the priority right now, the war fund is (as most of you can’t offer a roof for refugees for obvious reasons). Right now all storage in Przemyśl (the logistic center for Polish humanitarian aid) is filled up to the roof.

https://kporembinski.notion.site/kporembinski/Kompendium-Pomoc-dla-Ukrainy-36bf703e701a40589d9943c4059e8e4c

Interesting. Our truck is heading for przemysl. We have received a different message from our target location. Apparently, only the first waves are coming through and likely millions more are on the way. Money won't be able to magic baby formula, nappies, necessities, and food out of the air. (Remember pandemic panic/ recent supply chain problems) I think przemysl will turn into a supply hub and stuff be sent to Ukraine or into Poland with refugees.

The president in Zamosc who we have been in touch with suggested throwing money at the problem is not necessary a long-term solution, and this problem is only begun. They have asked for nappies, children's clothing, and medical supplies rather than money from us. The wounded will start coming in soon. Medical supplies are being moved via Zamosc to Zulkiew/oblast region in Ukriane.

As long as everyone is trying to help I don't think it matters. Different areas will have different needs.

Pandemic panic was different, as it was universal and spread everywhere. We are a nation of nearly 40mln people and store supply chains in Poland are efficient as usual and you can buy/distribute food on the site. What is needed is sleeping equipment - camp beds, mattresses, blankets, duvets; generally things you cannot buy in a corner store in sufficient quantities. There is difference between organised transports of directly demanded supplies and random people bringing in/sending random products, so if you sent medical supplies and sanitary products and have been in direct contact with authorities, then you brought exactly what is needed, but common people rushed with food and clothes, which now fill up the storage. That is why president of Przemyśl asked people to not bring stuff themselves or even not to drive with intent of transporting people, as disorganised transport only increases the chaos and problems. Also, refugees are not kept on site, they are relocated as efficiently as possible to the rest of the country to both organised hostels and private homes, so the stress on supply chains can be spread more.

And on top of it - you cannot buy weapon and ammo yourself and without the war effort there won't be any free Ukraine to help. So money for the war effort is IMHO the most important help right now.

Hopefully it wraps up soon for those living on the ground. It seems like maybe Russia was hoping that the Ukrainians would be unwilling to fight and instead bring them to the negotiating table, the Ukrainian military is huge (largest in Europe) and if both the Russians and Ukrainians are up for a fight it could be a very bloody one.

Certainly i'm fist pumping more than i expected. Lots of jolly good news coming. Another tank company of invaders reported blasted to pieces.

Ukraine is fighting like devil with "i need guns, not transport" president.

Don't mess with ukraine i guess?

Early reports are coming in of mass protests erupting in Moscow. It's just wire reports right now.

I don't see Putin quitting.

I think the only thing that can really end this conflict is if Russia overthrows him and we repeat the course of events that felled the Soviet Union in 1989 with the Russian military deciding to side with the masses over the state.

There have been protests since the end of the first day of the attack and so far thousands have been arrested for opposing the war. Thus far nothing suggested that these were anything akin to a mass protest, just smaller groupings that have shrunk since the second day.

I'm waiting to see if reports elaborate on if this is more of the same or if we're seeing a surge of anti-war fervor in Russia.

Well, I honestly thought that people learned from past mistakes and were smarter because of that. Obviously they have not. I just looked into the history books how this will end. It will be something like this:

Nuremberg Trials
Nov 20, 1945 – Oct 1, 1946


Condolences to the people of Ukraine.

Also, Kyiv is stating that peace talks with Russia have begun at the Belarussian border.

It wasn't clear that these talks were going to happen as both Russia and Ukraine have previously made conflicting statements on their willingness, but this seems definitive that there are talks now happening.

A few hot takes from me.

There were signs before the war started that the Russian troops were ill-organised and running low on food and fuel. Reports from Russian villagers that troops were selling their diesel for booze. Pics of troops camped out in railway stations because they hadn't got tents.

Some pundits are saying that Putin surrounded himself with yes-men and, like many dictators, has lost proper touch with baseline reality. He expected Ukraine to fold quickly. Now they haven't he's not sure what to do. Putting his nuclear force on high alert is probably slapping his dick on the table.

President Zelenskiy is having a good war, inspiring his people and the free world.

Loving those clips of Ukrainian civilians going and ragging on Russian troops. The woman giving them sunflower seeds to put in their pockets so "When you lie down here [i.e. die] something will grow from it." A Russian resident telling the troops to feth off back to their own country. The guy driving up to a column of stalled APCs and offering them a lift back to Russia.

I don't see how Putin could hope to hold down a nation of 44 million. Even if he manages to capture Kiyv and imprison the government, he'll get into a long-drawn out guerilla war.

I sent money to UNICEF


Automatically Appended Next Post:
And another thing, Belarus needs to get slammed for illegally allowing attacks to be launched from its territory.

In breaking news, Putin's scored an own goal by convincing the Germans to pour money into their armed forces.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
A few hot takes from me.

There were signs before the war started that the Russian troops were ill-organised and running low on food and fuel. Reports from Russian villagers that troops were selling their diesel for booze. Pics of troops camped out in railway stations because they hadn't got tents.

Some pundits are saying that Putin surrounded himself with yes-men and, like many dictators, has lost proper touch with baseline reality. He expected Ukraine to fold quickly. Now they haven't he's not sure what to do. Putting his nuclear force on high alert is probably slapping his dick on the table.

President Zelenskiy is having a good war, inspiring his people and the free world.

Loving those clips of Ukrainian civilians going and ragging on Russian troops. The woman giving them sunflower seeds to put in their pockets so "When you lie down here [i.e. die] something will grow from it." A Russian resident telling the troops to feth off back to their own country. The guy driving up to a column of stalled APCs and offering them a lift back to Russia.

I don't see how Putin could hope to hold down a nation of 44 million. Even if he manages to capture Kiyv and imprison the government, he'll get into a long-drawn out guerilla war.

I sent money to UNICEF

Another post I made over on ETC on my thoughts after the past few days;

It's even sadder when after days, we can kind of start making guesses of how this ends.

How exactly does Russia win this? Taking Kiev? I don't think the rest of Ukraine will surrender even if Kiev falls. Honestly, that might just galvanize them to keep fighting, especially if the fall is brutal and bloody. So what, they have to take every Ukrainian city? That's a fething blood bath for both sides. Putin might pay that cost, but will it really be winning?

At this point his economy is finished. They never recovered from the Crimea sanctions and these sanctions are much much worse.

The Russian military is being humiliated with severe weaknesses being put on full display. He won't have the economy to fix any of those weaknesses either and if he bleeds his military white in 'winning' then what future does it really have in a country with a declining population and o ability to replenish or develop new war materials?

Even if he manages to take Ukraine and prop up a puppet state, then what? The sanctions will continue. Ukraine will be in tatters. Belarus and puppet Ukraine may well join the sanctions list and he might still be fighting partisans throughout the country.

Where exactly does he start winning in this endeavor?

Russian goals for this conflict failed in the first few days and the response from the rest of Europe is overwhelming condemnation and solidarity against Russian aggression. Even countries that have historically been pro-Russian voices have turned now seem set to throw their lot in not with Russia but with NATO.

How many people have to die for Putin's pride?

 Kilkrazy wrote:
A few hot takes from me.

There were signs before the war started that the Russian troops were ill-organised and running low on food and fuel. Reports from Russian villagers that troops were selling their diesel for booze. Pics of troops camped out in railway stations because they hadn't got tents.

Some pundits are saying that Putin surrounded himself with yes-men and, like many dictators, has lost proper touch with baseline reality. He expected Ukraine to fold quickly. Now they haven't he's not sure what to do. Putting his nuclear force on high alert is probably slapping his dick on the table.

President Zelenskiy is having a good war, inspiring his people and the free world.

Loving those clips of Ukrainian civilians going and ragging on Russian troops. The woman giving them sunflower seeds to put in their pockets so "When you lie down here [i.e. die] something will grow from it." A Russian resident telling the troops to feth off back to their own country. The guy driving up to a column of stalled APCs and offering them a lift back to Russia.

I don't see how Putin could hope to hold down a nation of 44 million. Even if he manages to capture Kiyv and imprison the government, he'll get into a long-drawn out guerilla war.

I sent money to UNICEF


Automatically Appended Next Post:
And another thing, Belarus needs to get slammed for illegally allowing attacks to be launched from its territory.

In breaking news, Putin's scored an own goal by convincing the Germans to pour money into their armed forces.

I read the story of the guy too who offered to tow the APC back to Russia.
Only someone who doesn´t give a damn anymore would pull off such a thing as they could have wasted him in a heartbeat.

The person in charge has a 19th century mindset and harbors a deep loathing for our modern times. That´s why all the talks failed. We can only wait and see when his close "minions" (he treats even his trusted accomplices with extreme disrespect as seen in TV footages) have enough of this bad treatment and hatch a plot to supplant him.

Another excurse to history:
Stalin died due to a stroke. Nobody dared to check on him as he suspected anybody near him of foul play due to his paranoia. So he passed away in his office without getting any help. Though such a turn of events is rather unlikely with the guy now present in the kremlin.

 Kilkrazy wrote:


In breaking news, Putin's scored an own goal by convincing the Germans to pour money into their armed forces.

Also by ensuring europe will make sure in future no need for russian gas so russia will lose big export regardless of how this ends. And excelent pr for nato. Likely it will expand to east europe in near future. Putin wanted nato not expand so ensured it will expand.

Finland already has a proposal to join NATO on its legislative agenda after a referendum. No idea if they'll actually do it, but that they're talking about it at all is kind of the problem.

Russia's most apparent reasons for the conflict are to secure Russia's security against NATO.

All he's achieved is to pull NATO together, possibly push Finland and Sweeden closer to the alliance, and flay himself economically.

Yep. Had russian continued as before unlikely i would have seen day finland join nato. Now it might happen surprisingly fast.

Popularity of join was growing　before invasion, only now and now legally parliament will have to discuss. Referendum looking very much real possibility which yes might win. Or parliament sends requests to join straight away ensuring russia can't act before referendum takes place

Dangerous ground I know but...

Iraq population ~40 million
Afghanistan population ~40 million
Vietnam population in 1970 ~40 million

And of course Ukraine population ~40 million

Granted the first 3 were facing a foe who had to move men and material across an ocean or two, vice just driving it in, but I found it interesting.

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:
Dangerous ground I know but...

Iraq population ~40 million
Afghanistan population ~40 million
Vietnam population in 1970 ~40 million

And of course Ukraine population ~40 million

Granted the first 3 were facing a foe who had to move men and material across an ocean or two, vice just driving it in, but I found it interesting.

America lost the Vietnam War due to political blunders regarding South Vietnam´s regime, disrespect of South Vietnam forces and overall questionable military strategies such as "Body Count" and "Rolling Thunder". The strategy "Hearts and Minds" was crucial but couldn´t be implemented with any positive, lasting effect because of the corrupt regime present in South Vietnam.

The US were also blind to the fact that the North was sick and tired of strangers occupying their country. So they would endure ANY hardships imaginable to win the war in the end to gain independence. America was able to bomb their enemies into submission in WWII but it failed in Vietnam and they never understood why. Famous exchange between General Westmoreland and an US politician:

Westmoreland: "We are killing these people in a ratio of 10:1."
US Politician: "But Westy, the public doesn´t care about the ten. They care about the one."

Another factor in favour of the Vietcong was the topography of the country itself which provided them with extraordinary camouflage. In addition the North relied solely on propaganda when addressing the war in public while America allowed journalists to freely report from site. This proved to be a disadvantage for the US war machine. Just think of the picture which showed a naked girl who barely survived a napalm blast or the callous execution of a prisoner perpetrated by Saigon´s police chief in front of TV cameras. Once these two pictures were published approval for the war plummeted significantly in the US.

Last but not least the US couldn´t invade the North because then China would have entered the war on North Vietnam´s behalf.

Not the topic of this thread folks..

The west has apparently gone ahead with the threat to isolate and cripple the Russian central bank, presumably assuring the collapse of the Russian economy.

How are our Ukrainian friends? Fighting like absolute demons, it would seem. If reports from the MoD are true (and that's a big if), it would seem that the Russians of 2022 are scarcely more competent than the Iraqis of 1991, with the roles reversed.

Putin seems to have lost his fething mind, though. For a start, what did he think he was going to do with Ukraine once he got it? Like Blair and Bush in 2003, he seems to have assumed that his forces would be welcome with open arms... well, we were wrong then, and he's VERY wrong now. I hope to see battle ceasefires being negotiated, first at the platoon level than working their way up.. if you're a Russian lieutenant who's trained your platoon for 3-4 years to resist a NATO/ Chinese invasion of the Motherland and now you're expected to see all your guys die taking some nondescript apartment block in a country you've always seen as a friend or at the very least NON existential threat (imagine US invading Canada or UK invading Ireland.. now...).. what would you do?

I just hope to god a palace coup takes him down before any more lives are lost on either side and any more pointless suffering and misery is created

Considering how the army seemed to lack a lot of supplies to conduct war for more than a few days it really suggests that the army wasn't really ready to invade. That it was your standard "posture and worry the neighbours but don't actually DO anything" attitude. Or if there was a land grab it would be modest/small scale.

And then suddenly the order comes to invade the whole country.



With sanctions rising against Russia and with the Ukraine at the very least proving that they can and will maintain a long conflict with the potential of an even longer guerrilla resistance even if Russia could win; it just begs the question what will Putin/Russia gain from this.

So far they've not gained anything.


It does indeed seem so utterly pointless a war.

At this point, Putin's in the sunk cost fallacy I think.

There's no outcome where Russia gains more than it's losing anymore. It's all purely Putin's ego at this point. His obsession with how Russia must be a country that stands in opposition to the west. It doesn't have to be that way, but it seems to be the only world he understands.

Even if Kyiv falls, then what? Even if he props up a puppet state, then what? Ukraine, as much as I'd love for them to win, is not in a great situation. I don't see how they win this. I don't see how Russia wins either though. At what point does Putin gain more than he's lost?

It really just comes down to one question; how many people have to die for Putin's ego?

I've seen it suggested that his actual objective is to establish a land bridge between mainland Russia and the Crimea. Given how far he's advanced, he "concedes" much of that ground, then remains in occupation in the east which mainly consists of the two states that were already subject to separatist groups, linking Crimea and allowing contiguous access to a more geographically strategic area if he wanted to build a platform for future expansion.

 LordofHats wrote:
At this point, Putin's in the sunk cost fallacy I think.

There's no outcome where Russia gains more than it's losing anymore. It's all purely Putin's ego at this point. His obsession with how Russia must be a country that stands in opposition to the west. It doesn't have to be that way, but it seems to be the only world he understands.

Even if Kyiv falls, then what? Even if he props up a puppet state, then what? Ukraine, as much as I'd love for them to win, is not in a great situation. I don't see how they win this. I don't see how Russia wins either though. At what point does Putin gain more than he's lost?

It really just comes down to one question; how many people have to die for Putin's ego?

Is Putin trying to hold Ukraine? I don't really understand what's going on with it all, but it seemed to me the idea was to get them to the negotiation table rather than hold the whole country, the outcome being that maybe he can get Ukraine to remain neutral and cede the Donbas region to either become Russian territory or an independent state. The Donbas region of the Ukraine is roughly half ethnically Russian population, and my understanding is that it's only been part of the Ukraine in relatively recent times. Supposedly there's been ~14,000 casualties in and around that region due to fighting since 2014.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 LordofHats wrote:
The west has apparently gone ahead with the threat to isolate and cripple the Russian central bank, presumably assuring the collapse of the Russian economy.

I do wonder how much it affects the average Russians if the economy is collapsed relative to the USD though? Russia is less reliant on foreign trade than most western countries, and I imagine capable of having an insular economy. Not that that's a desirable outcome, but I guess the question I'm asking is the Russian economy measured relative to the USD really a good measure of the health of the country internally?

In the end I just hope it works out for the people on the ground, whether they be Russian or Ukrainian.