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GW looks like it’s joining the FTSE 100 with a value of around £4.7!! The hobby really is mainstream now, and non the worse for it!

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14154309/MARKET-REPORT-Warhammer-leads-Games-Workshop-FTSE-100.html

Please translate to Yank for me... this is good... right?

100 biggest publicly traded companies in the UK or something like that. Stonks.

Oh, okay. Thanks.

£4.7 Billion, just to be clear.
It’s the combined value of all the publicly traded shares, referred to as “market capitalisation”.

The top 100 companies (in terms of market capitalisation, so in rough terms, the most valuable) trading on the London Stock Exchange are listed on the FTSE 100.

In footballing terms, GW have just been promoted to the Premiership.

That's pretty wild considering how niche our market is!

 Overread wrote:
That's pretty wild considering how niche our market is!

And how otiose

It will be interesting to see if this placement lasts.

A few factors will contribute towards them maintaining their placement, however, those same factors have most likely caused them to push over the line - namely if some of the rumoured increased partnership with amazon is true, however, the recent boost in share price is probably suggesting it has some basis in fact.

Obviously the £120m in profit reported recently also will contribute but there are many moving, or speculated moving parts to this.

The more scary aspect is if a buyer lurks and part of this is engineered in anticipation of a sale.

 Overread wrote:
That's pretty wild considering how niche our market is!

As I said, we appear niche no more, they are rubbing shoulders will shell and BP among the big boys.

It feels much more mainstream, I often hear it discussed on the news and in circles I would not expect. Spacemarine 2 has pushed it even for there into the limelight.

Even if their spell in the top 100 doesn’t last long it’s still a sign of how insanely well the hobby is doing and how GW have the IP to dominate.

All the talk of IP things they still stressed I the news articles that they are still very much a manufacturer not a retailer.

I think that's another important thing - this isn't just another firm but one that keeps as much as they can manufactured in the UK as well rather than overseas.

From my perspective in the UK GW, or rather Warhammer has always been known about. Even way back in the 90s you could mention it and most people would know what you meant. Though you might have to prompt them with "You know that store that sells expensive toy models"

I think the difference is that now the video games and movie deal with Warner mean that there's a LOT more chance that someone has directly interacted with it rather than just being aware it exists. Dawn of War, Space Marine and such have pushed the videogame side whilst on the model side Lord of the Rings certainly got a lot of people into the store even if only for the odd box or two after the films.

Even though that latter market dried up fast, it still meant lots of exposure.



It will be interesting to see if GW can maintain their position. I think the Amazon deal and even the new single episode from a 3rd party appearing on Amazon Prime could be another big spark that gets many into the system. So potentially we might well not see a dip but a rise in the next year or two. I still expect a dip or a levelling off to happen at some point and I kind of think GW also expect it in the back of their minds too.
Also if their IP proves popular and profitable who knows we might see Amazon commission more shows or even see the ones GW already has made for Warhammer+ get mainstream exposure.

The danger is they'll look a more attractive takeover target now for the venture capital lot who'd load them with debt trying to make a quick buck. Hopefully enough of the shareholders are 'interested' enough in GW that they don't get the chance

 MajorWesJanson wrote:

 Overread wrote:
That's pretty wild considering how niche our market is!

And how otiose

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks this every time I hear the word niche.

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
The danger is they'll look a more attractive takeover target now for the venture capital lot who'd load them with debt trying to make a quick buck. Hopefully enough of the shareholders are 'interested' enough in GW that they don't get the chance

According to Companies House?

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/01467092/persons-with-significant-control

GW owns 75%+ of its own shares. Which makes a hostile takeover seem unlikely to succeed.

That's not true - Companies House doesn't track ownership of publicly traded companies. Baille Gifford own the most shares with 3,329,530 (~10%) with another 24 institutions owning 51.82%.

The board hold 27,000 shares between them (0.08%)


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Source: https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/consumer-durables/lse-gaw/games-workshop-group-shares/ownership

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
The danger is they'll look a more attractive takeover target now for the venture capital lot who'd load them with debt trying to make a quick buck. Hopefully enough of the shareholders are 'interested' enough in GW that they don't get the chance

According to Companies House?

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/01467092/persons-with-significant-control

GW owns 75%+ of its own shares. Which makes a hostile takeover seem unlikely to succeed.

Games Workshop Group Plc (global company) owns GW Limited (the UK branch). The group is the publicly traded entity.

Ahhh, that explains it.

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
The danger is they'll look a more attractive takeover target now for the venture capital lot who'd load them with debt trying to make a quick buck. Hopefully enough of the shareholders are 'interested' enough in GW that they don't get the chance

I don't really see that it does make them an attractive takeover target.

A Toys'r'us-esque leveraged buyout is a bit harder to do in the UK (not impossible, as happened to BHS, but harder).

Also worth noting that GW hands out very generous dividends, which makes it less likely shareholders will be incentivised to sell. If I had a significant stack of GW shares I think I'd be pretty happy with consistent dividends and increasing profits over a one-time cash-in.

Also, any serious investors should have already been aware of GW given their excellent performance over the last 5 years. They've made the mainstream press multiple times recently over their business model and profits. I don't think making it into the FTSE100 will make much difference to how attractive an investment they would be.

This is still bonkers to me as a thing.

Probably because I’ve been around a long old time, my perception of GW is still that of a bunch of creative maniacs in a cottage industry.

Of course, it’s not been that for a long, long time. And I’m not pretending otherwise.

But the FTSE 100 listing is just insane.

Then again, I’ve painted probably £3,000 worth of models this year alone, so it shouldn’t be so surprising 🤣

Damn I wish I'd bought shares when I first wondered about it. Hell, even if I'd bought shares back when I first started saying 'damn I wish I'd bought shares' I'd have still done pretty well...

I had £2000 worth of shares about 20 years ago but I was pursuaded to sell them. If Id kept them they'd be worth £60,000 by now.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
This is still bonkers to me as a thing.

Probably because I’ve been around a long old time, my perception of GW is still that of a bunch of creative maniacs in a cottage industry.

Of course, it’s not been that for a long, long time. And I’m not pretending otherwise.

But the FTSE 100 listing is just insane.

Then again, I’ve painted probably £3,000 worth of models this year alone, so it shouldn’t be so surprising 🤣

It is and it isn't bonkers.

It's bonkers that GW have been so well run over the past decade that they've ascended to this level, when in the past people were worried about them getting bought out by Hasbro or entering serious money troubles.

It's not bonkers in that Warhammer (encompassing 40k, WHFB and AOS) is probably the most valuable creative IP to have come out of the UK in the last 30 years other than Harry Potter. It was always woefully underexploited and while I think the tabletop miniatures market may be becoming saturated, having rode a decade long wave of nerdy hobbies becoming mainstream through the internet and the company finally being managed correctly, it still has massive potential from a TV/Movie potential which would then filter back into expanding the tabletop market. I think a lot of it's recent shareprice rise is factoring in the Amazon partnership being successful, which is dangerous considering their approach to IP adaption and the butchering LOTR and Wheel of Time got under the creatives Amazon entrusted them to. Then again I can't see Henry Cavill standing for that gak again with his industry profile and the experience he had on The Witcher.

I think one big difference is that GW have a very strong handle on the use of their IP; plus they are also pretty smart with it adapting to other mediums.

The Amazon LotR Show had the issue that they weren't actually allowed to use a lot of original material and kind of only got a licence to use parts of it. Ontop of that they are going into parts of the history of Middle Earth that even if you have access to everything there are still huge huge chunks of story missing because most of those stories are almost more summaries of stories. They cover the very critical moments, but they aren't flowing narratives.

GW is much smarter at parcelling out and controlling their IP. The fact that they also don't just let 3rd parties take it and run without oversight is also a powerful thing. I suspect its why we've never seen a Hollywood film because I suspect many of the producers/directors would not stand for GW's level of oversight entering the equation.

Sure GW make mistakes too, but in broad general terms they've a mature and firm understanding of the value of their IP and how to manage it going into other markets. It's hurdles many authors and other IP holders fail to grasp - often because
1) They are very much in a weaker position in negotiations from the start.

2) They haven't been through the process before (ever) so they don't know the pitfalls to watch out for.

The other appeal is that GW has no debt, instead having significant cash reserves.

That brings solid protection against financial goings-on. Not immunity of course, but they can ride out shocks and upsets better than a company servicing debts.

It also means that, for the time being? There’s no desperation to leverage IP rights the way Marvel did in the….90’s, I think? Where it sold off its A-Listers to generate cash to keep the company afloat. Which adds value to said IP, as in GW doesn’t need to license they way it might if it needed a sudden cash injection. And so GW can bide its time and be all cautious and conservative about it.

I expect there is a line there of course. IP is only of theoretical value until you start exploiting it. So if you’re turning away perfectly reasonable offers, constantly hoping for a bigger one tomorrow? The value isn’t manifesting. Which can be as bad as accepting low ball offers to get you out of an existing financial hole.

 Scottywan82 wrote:

 MajorWesJanson wrote:

 Overread wrote:
That's pretty wild considering how niche our market is!

And how otiose

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks this every time I hear the word niche.

Haha yes indeed... The moment I saw the word niche, this meme essentially just appeared..


For anyone not aware, this was from former CEO Tom Kirby, the quote:
"We do no demographic research, we have no focus groups, we do not ask the market what it wants. These things are otiose in a niche"

It's hard to imagine now with GW doing so well financially - fully engaged in social media, giving previews, a full range of specialist games and licensed to everything they can, but at that time the company was flying in ever decreasing circles (it was 40k/WHFB or the highway), their engagement with fans consisted of issuing a C&D to fan sites and forums, and we had the 'Finecast' disaster while a rest of world shipping ban had come in. It was a particularly crappy time to be a GW fan (I believe in this forum at one time it was dubbed the 'summer of terror', because it was just one thing after another), and that shareholder meeting quote I think succinctly summarised everything that was wrong at that time.

I think GWs main concern with IP is protecting it not milking it at the minute. It’s a business I know sod all about but they seem quite savy in only selling the IP to games and companies that will help them over all not degrade it. Joy toy etc is a whole market of collectors that won’t impact on the sales to the current hobbyist collectors etc.

Andykp wrote:
I think GWs main concern with IP is protecting it not milking it at the minute. It’s a business I know sod all about but they seem quite savy in only selling the IP to games and companies that will help them over all not degrade it. Joy toy etc is a whole market of collectors that won’t impact on the sales to the current hobbyist collectors etc.

Actually GW's tactic with Video games was basically sell to whoever wants it and who can afford to pay.

There's a whole bunch of no-name smaller studios who paid for a licence and failed or made games that never even quite got finished.

The thing is it works because the no-name smaller firms just vanish whilst the big names like Dawn of War, Space Marine and Warhammer Total War rise up and dominate the market and chatter. Even when Dawn of War 3 failed it didn't hurt GW proper, it was just a side game that hurt those fans but didn't hurt GW's actual direct sales and the licence was already bought and paid for.

If it fails it doesn't hurt GW and if it works it benefits them.



The other side of the coin is that because GW doesn't just sell you a licence, but gets involved with the creation of the new IP this turns away a lot of "quick buck IP users". Taking on the GW IP comes with a bunch of conditions which helps ensure whatever is made; at least fits with their vision of their own IP (adapted for the medium and nature of the thing being released - eg Gladius has a bunch of lore and story twists to allow LOADS of factions to be fighting over just one planet). Instead you get big studios who actually want to make a GW IP product and you get smaller studios who likely do, but who also want the market GW would bring to them and are more willing to jump through GW's hoops to get that.

I think this in turn shields GW from the kinds of IP users who would buy an IP and then just do whatever they wanted with it.

The other thing there is when projects have failed (e.g. computer games), it’s because of the quality of the product, not the interpretation of the IP (I.e. the Space Marines looked cool, but the gameplay was garbage), so GW come out of it pretty much unscathed.

Personally I enjoyed playing Space Marine 2 but different people enjoy different things. I think it was a good advert for 40k. I haven't played with random online players as previous experience with that group was awful.
I'm positive there's good friendly players out there but I've yet to meet anyone that wasn't on an ego power trip.

Andykp wrote:
...and non the worse for it!

That is certainly an opinion it is legally permissable to hold.