Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

you can't make a linear regression extrapolation with only 2 points of reference. I don't want to sound like an ass, but this is basic statistic.

Anyway, as I said repeatedly, the recent half year report make the possibility of them turning a loss for this year, pretty much null.

Of course you can, it's just not always going to be massively accurate.

However, in the case of GW's financial performance it was anticipated and supported by other information, and we can also use the interim reports, which have also been down YOY in the same period, which gives us another two points on the graph.

Anyway, none of this is relevant to plastic HH stuff, and my original point was that if the decline of the last two years continues, then it is eminently possible for GW to make a loss, and that point still stands.

so you think that their is a possibility, that in the last 6 months of the current financial year, tthey will turn an operating loss of 5.5 millions ?????


I don't think that this is a realistic scenario at all

 streetsamurai wrote:
you can't make a linear regression extrapolation with only 2 points of reference. I don't want to sound like an ass, but this is basic statistic.

It'd be more accurate than following the growth-decline wave they usually do, because there's nothing driving that growth this time round (like LOTR). But that's getting dangerously off topic.

 streetsamurai wrote:
so you think that their is a possibility, that in the last 6 months of the current financial year, tthey will turn an operating loss of 5.5 millions ?????


I don't think that this is a realistic scenario at all

I'm not sure about a loss of 5.5 million, but it'd be easy enough for them to post a loss if things keep going as they are. The WHF rumours will already be costing them sales.

If anything I'd say a further reduction in profit is more likely than an increase, but that it'll still be a positive number around £3-6m profit. A loss is definitely possible.

I dont think that the LOTR had much to do with these annual sales figure, since the last movie was in 2003. It is not LOTR that was respnsible for the upward trend in sales and profit from 2008-20009 to 2012-2013 Anyway, as someone who holds a master in stats ( not trying to pull rank or anything), making a linear regression with only 2 point of reference is not a valid method, of extrapolation.

I also don't think that the 9th ditions rumours will have much impact on their bottom lines, since reportedly, WHFB are already so low, that they barely make 10% of their total sales.

Anyways, I don't see the point of debating this much further

 streetsamurai wrote:
so you think that their is a possibility, that in the last 6 months of the current financial year, tthey will turn an operating loss of 5.5 millions ?????


I don't think that this is a realistic scenario at all

Where on earth did you get a number from anything I've written?

All I've said is it wouldn't take much, if they continue on their current, recent, trend (and to my eye there's been nothing to suggest they won't) for them to post a loss or "damn near it."

Now, back to plastic HH maybe?

 Azreal13 wrote:

 streetsamurai wrote:
so you think that their is a possibility, that in the last 6 months of the current financial year, tthey will turn an operating loss of 5.5 millions ?????


I don't think that this is a realistic scenario at all

Where on earth did you get a number from anything I've written?

All I've said is it wouldn't take much, if they continue on their current, recent, trend (and to my eye there's been nothing to suggest they won't) for them to post a loss or "damn near it."

Now, back to plastic HH maybe?

Unless you are totally disconnected from the discussion, the argument was on whether or not is it realistic to claim that they might turn a loss for the current fiscal year. Since their operating profit is 5.5 millions for the first 6 months current fiscal year, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that this imply that they will need to turn an operating loss of close to 5.5 millions in the last 6 months of the current fiscal year for this to happens.

But anyway, you are right. let's go back to HH

Congratulations, you get the last word, I hope it is the highlight of your day.

Lol, it sure is

Seriously, my last post might have came out more rude than I intended to. I apologise if it offended you

 streetsamurai wrote:
Lol, it sure is

Seriously, my last post might have came out more rude than I intended to. I apologise if it offended you

As a fellow Canadian I must let you know that for being rude You can expect to get 10 years in the maple syrup mines for that kind of behavior.

Sorry for the Inconvenience.

 Lockark wrote:

 streetsamurai wrote:
Lol, it sure is

Seriously, my last post might have came out more rude than I intended to. I apologise if it offended you

As a fellow Canadian I must let you know that for being rude You can expect to get 10 years in the maple syrup mines for that kind of behavior.

Sorry for the Inconvenience.

Ahh the Maple syrup mines... it looks like Rurhe Penthe seem like Barbados.

 Azreal13 wrote:


Now, back to plastic HH maybe?

Yes, please.

Sometimes I read Alpharius's pleas to return to topic with the voice of a desperate man crying out against the injustice of an uncaring world.

However, in an effort to respect that plea, I'm honestly enthusiastic to see how this pans out. By rights, plastic, readily available line troops for the Horus Heresy line makes good business sense. Relatively few people will buy whole armies of FW stuff, but there are many, many more who will buy a chunk of an army at FW prices. Almost everyone I know has at least some FW in their 40k armies, from a single flier or tank, but I'm the only one insane enough to have an entire FW army with my Death Korps. Their models are superb, but their line troops are way too expensive for most people to consider in favour of the regular variant.

Now, FW could just normalize prices somewhat to solve that, but I doubt they have the production capacity for that sort of thing, but focusing on the "special" stuff makes better use of their own prodigious talents and production capacity while GW offers up the "core" units of most 30k lists easier and more affordably, as well as increasing recognition of the product line.

That being said, GW is downright insane when it comes to perceived ownership; FW rarely gets more than a single sentence of reference in most official GW publications outside of the one section of the WD; the New 'cron codex goes out of its way to ignore FW's contributions thematically to the faction, none of the art ever includes anything FW, and they have refused for years to ever include a little blurb of "Hey, Forgeworld's an official thing guys" to silence those silly legality arguements, it seems like an about face to offer a product which while able to stand on its own, it would be clearly designed to direct attention outside of GW Hobby Coffins.

Then there's the whole matter of what does this mean for the ruleset. FW has produced a pretty solid ruleset which has seen more FAQs and clarifications than GW has produced since, well, I don't even remember the last time a good FAQ was produced, I think I was still in 1st year college at the time. GW's own capacity to craft working rules is, well, negligible and were they to start stepping on FW's toes more, it could be disastrous. One of the most attractive things about HH is the solid, well-designed rules.

Desperate man?

HA. HA. HA.

I imagine him caressing the spanking paddle and riding crop, waiting for someone to ignore him one time too many.

But yeah, here's hoping that the plastic HH marines will be nice and uniform, without too much bling and whatnot, making them excellent filler for any legion really.

 the_Armyman wrote:
Is there really this vast, untapped market of heresy players who have sat out because of FW's prices? I would imagine that the people who want to play HH have ponied-up the cash and are happily painting their Mark-whatever armor. I get that it's popular and that I'm in the minority because it doesn't apeal to me, I just don't see what customer this is intended for.

No, but there could be if you make them more readily accessible. I have no desire to order from forgeworld, and I dont like the resin models- plastic or metal are my idelal choices. However, if you throw out some plastic ones like they seem to be doing, I would probably pick some up and add them to my DA or a successor chapter for them. I cant be alone in that. And not just a Dark Angels chapter.....

I would love some older marks of armor in plastic to start that Carcharodons army of my dreams.

Lords of war gaming posted this earlier-

Lords of War Gaming
4 hrs · Edited ·

All these rumor sites said Sisters of Battle in May and now it's Horus Heresy plastics. I wonder what they will say next?

Sly dig that HH is not coming May, as they have said all along?

Anyone have any idea where the May for HH started from? Only BoLS said May from what i remember but everyone seems to have latched onto it for some reason....

Also in the replies, though these are AD mech flavoured.

Gary Arndt Rumors were also excited about Admech in April and now no mention of it over the last week or so. I feel like there is going to be a lot of disappointed folk. Honestly prefer to wait for photo leaks and be pleasantly surprised.
3 hrs · Edited

Lords of War Gaming
Gary Arndt Admech are right around the corner.
2 · 3 hrs

Wonderwolf wrote:

It's funny how much the excitement about AdMech died down, due to how old those rumours are. Anytime more than 6 months ago, the prospect of plastic AdMech would've let nearly everyone to predict that GW will be printing money again like there's no tomorrow. Almost seems to vindicate GW's odd "secrecy-to-shock-into-impulse-buy-approach".

Well, not really. People stopped talking about it because there's virtually no information available about what the release will consist of, no new information appears to be forthcoming, and we speculated everything that was there to death. That doesn't mean people stopped anticipating the release, it just means we've nothing left to talk about; the solution to that wee conundrum is more information not less. They don't have to dump the entire release schedule and list of all box and book contents online a year in advance, just have a vaguely competent marketing strategy; let people know a thing is coming a few months out, let them speculate and wishlist for a few weeks, then drop a few small tidbits of more specific info, allow renewed speculation for a few weeks, then another few bits of specific info etc etc. Considering how much stuff GW are working on at any one time, a first-year marketing student could devise a plan that would have the community constantly frothing with excitement for GW products while still saving a few "big reveals" for right before the actual release dates, and that same student could tell GW that "impulse purchasing" isn't viable for a product that's so expensive and which requires such a large time investment. That they choose to carry on believing their "secrecy-to-shock-into-impulse-buy-approach" is a good plan despite declining revenues and sales and literally nobody else in the industry following their example is nothing more than yet another example of the total talent-atrophy on show among the upper management.

Lords of Wargaming wrote:You will see a new Space Marine codex before you see Horus Heresy plastics

Well....

feth.

Weren't Dark Angels rumoured to be getting a new book, recently?

I hope this doesn't turn out to be hot air. I would buy the crap out of M31 SM legionaries to play "Bolter Action" (40k using BA rules) if nothing else.

It'll be interesting to see how this turns out now that some big rumor players are facing off on it.

 pretre wrote:

Lords of Wargaming wrote:You will see a new Space Marine codex before you see Horus Heresy plastics

I hope this means a chapter (DA) and not the actual Codex: Space Marines, which is really much too nice to be replaced so soon.

In either case, it will be the first replaced hardback, and after what, 3 years (in the best case scenario, DA) and with this, I will quit paying money for rules. I play 8 or so armies and on a 3-year cycle that's 100 euro a year just for the bare bones army updates, never mind the supplements and DLC. No go.

Lords of War are just a buncha killjoys arent they?

 WrentheFaceless wrote:
Lords of War are just a buncha killjoys arent they?

Squashing fake rumors isn't being a killjoy. Creating and propagating fake rumors is.

The just said Tau codex before HH as well. I think this is their way of saying 'pigs fly'.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Nope, I was wrong. He says HH this year and next but sm and tau first.

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 pretre wrote:

Lords of Wargaming wrote:You will see a new Space Marine codex before you see Horus Heresy plastics

I hope this means a chapter (DA) and not the actual Codex: Space Marines, which is really much too nice to be replaced so soon.

In either case, it will be the first replaced hardback, and after what, 3 years (in the best case scenario, DA) and with this, I will quit paying money for rules. I play 8 or so armies and on a 3-year cycle that's 100 euro a year just for the bare bones army updates, never mind the supplements and DLC. No go.

Fully agreed, it's getting beyond a joke - especially as the current MO seems to be removing stuff from the codexes, adding next to nothing and not really improving them. I've not bothered updating my books for my Chaos Daemons, Dark Eldar, Necrons, Grey Knights, etc, since I mostly play with friends and the new books add so little and take away so much. I'm still pissy about my BA assault squad troops going the way of the dodo.

Could the sm codex be related to the rumor about a new marine fast attack vehicle? Seems silly to have an entire new codex already.....be hey, gw....

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 pretre wrote:

Lords of Wargaming wrote:You will see a new Space Marine codex before you see Horus Heresy plastics

I hope this means a chapter (DA) and not the actual Codex: Space Marines, which is really much too nice to be replaced so soon.

In either case, it will be the first replaced hardback, and after what, 3 years (in the best case scenario, DA) and with this, I will quit paying money for rules. I play 8 or so armies and on a 3-year cycle that's 100 euro a year just for the bare bones army updates, never mind the supplements and DLC. No go.

To answer your question about Dark Angels-

Lords of War Gaming
DA I don't know about. Could see Eldar..
1 hr

So they are obviously talking actual Codex space marines

 Manchu wrote:
I hope this doesn't turn out to be hot air. I would buy the crap out of M31 SM legionaries to play "Bolter Action" (40k using BA rules) if nothing else.

I will buy into 30k Marines and Ad Mech just to use with the One Page 40k rules.