It's surprising that a small company can survive only on making collectables based on one of the most lucrative IP properties in Hollywood history?!!?
GW has certainly developed a profitable property in 40k (and formerly the WHFB world) but somehow I don't see a 40k (or AoS, lol) movie grossing north of $1bn within a couple of weeks of release, or the IP selling for $4.05bn (and probably being a steal at that!)
cygnnus wrote: It's surprising that a small company can survive only on making collectables based on one of the most lucrative IP properties in Hollywood history?!!?
GW has certainly developed a profitable property in 40k (and formerly the WHFB world) but somehow I don't see a 40k (or AoS, lol) movie grossing north of $1bn within a couple of weeks of release, or the IP selling for $4.05bn (and probably being a steal at that!)
Valete,
JohnS
The reference is to Smaug being number 1 and that its part of the second biggest IP in the world which gets them noticed by the collectibles market ie people that do not mind paying $200+ for models and then having them customized.
How about the Streetfighter series from Prototype Studios then.. $220
Well add me to the list of people who didn't see that coming,
I think the list really shows that 'we' (the general internet forum user) probably as little grasp of what really makes money for a company like GW as they sometimes seem to do
The list contains a significant number of junk//mediocre units from a game play point of view so just writing good rules doesn't guarantee a new kit big sales (although it probably helps)
It contains a significant number of big expensive kits, so GW is right, from a revenue point of view going big works well
From the number of new kits/units on the list they do need to keep churning out new stuff no matter how many problems in terms of balance (or keeping your army up to date) that causes
I'm surprised the Chaos Space Marines kit was still that high up there at #18 considering how dated that kit is and the common perception of CSM's power level.
Also surprising to see almost no new Craftworld Eldar kits up there either. Though that is the curse of the Eldar, you get great rules, but a lot of your kits are ancient. The Eldar Falcon kit still has 1994 listed on it. Though that is a statement that it was a damn good sculpt when it came out.
The Skiitari also seem to eclipse the AdMech in terms of popularity as well.
All the Warhammer Fantasy models that are listed seem to be all Endtimes, rather than AoS.
I'm glad for GW that something like a Smaug resin kit can be a success, but I fear for the future when I see Smaug and 8 other Super-heavy/Gargantuan/Monster kits on the list. It just reinforces GW's inbred thought processes towards 40K and Fantasy/AoS. Why make a better game when you can just make larger kits?
In fairness, big plastic kits are a fairly recent move for them. We've had 30 years of infantry and tanks. In my gaming hayday, some 15 yrs ago, the leman russ and predator tanks were the biggest kits available (during those couple of years between landraiders). They are trying to offer something different for collectors, and centerpiece/statement models are clearly being well received. I know that many gamers don't like the effect that they have had on gameplay, but you can't blame them for embracing what the sales figures are showing customers want.
JamesY wrote: I know that many gamers don't like the effect that they have had on gameplay, but you can't blame them for embracing what the sales figures are showing customers want.
I don't blame them for doing it... even though I don't like them in game I still like the big kits themselves. If they better structured their rules to allow for large models then it would have been fine.
I don't blame the big kits, I blame GW's poor rules writing.
@allseeingskink yeah, I know what you mean. I don't think it's ever been a watertight game, which I appreciate a lot of people want. I don't think that will ever change though, the games writers seem to be more focused on disabling it from competitive play, which also destroys any hope of the clarity and balance that most of us seem to want. Hopefully the pendulum that the company is built on will swing the other way one day .
I like the big kits to look at, but as soon as I start thinking about storing or transporting them, I get a headache.
Probably because I've moved country twice in the last few years, but it's a big concern for me now. It's the main reason why I stopped playing Warmachine and Hordes - my collection arrived in Germany in pieces, and I just haven't been able to bring myself to repair them in 3 and a half years.
Without actual sales evidence, I'm inclined to believe gw just made these up, when I worked at a certain high street gaming store, we used to just make up most of the top ten games, this actually led to an increase in sales of those games, so this to me is just a marketing ploy, until proven otherwise.
I think its awesome that Smaug is #1 on the list. Gives me hope that they won't drop the LotR/The Hobbit line. I also noticed all the superheavy/gargantuan kits on the list. Indeed, there may have been more big kits on the list than small ones, especially when two or three of them were battleforce boxes. I'm partially to blame for that, as I bought a Bloodthirster and a Stormsurge last year. Also, as others pointed out, I think it is very telling that there was nothing in the top 28 for Age of Sigmar. The only fantasy stuff was really for WHFB End Times (although technically you can use them for AoS). This probably mean AoS has largely flopped. I think if GW was fudging their numbers we would see something from the Stormcast Eternals range and something from the Khorne Bloodbound range. Interesting indeed that we do not.
So no AOS specific items (and repackaged or rebranded WHFB stuff doesn't count) at all on the top 28? That doesn't seem like a rousing success for one of only two supported product lines during 2015.
warboss wrote: So no AOS specific items (and repackaged or rebranded WHFB stuff doesn't count) at all on the top 28? That doesn't seem like a rousing success for one of only two supported product lines during 2015.
You need to bear in mind that all of the end times range was intended for AoS, which is why they didn't really sit well on square bases, and why they were packaged in the same style as the AoS releases.
the_Armyman wrote: I'm glad for GW that something like a Smaug resin kit can be a success, but I fear for the future when I see Smaug and 8 other Super-heavy/Gargantuan/Monster kits on the list. It just reinforces GW's inbred thought processes towards 40K and Fantasy/AoS. Why make a better game when you can just make larger kits?
Plastic is ideal for large kits like Smaug (ironically made in resin, of course) and Baneblade, Mycetic Spore, etc.
However this perception and the ranking doesn't tell the whole story. GW currently have about 1,700 plastic and Finecast kits available, counting all the different factions for 40K, WHFB and AoS.
The fact that the number one kit, Smaug, is estimated to have sold about £175,000 worth, doesn't mean that kits nos. 29 to 1,750 sold nothing. How else did GW get to a total revenue of about £115 million in the past year?
The question is whether GW could survive by only selling the top 100 or so big kits like Smaug, Archaon, Carnosaur and Drop Pod. I suspect not. I reckon relatively few people want to collect the occasional weird SF/Fantasy big model unless it is part of an army.
OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:And no Orks on the list makes me sad
Amen!
I was secretly praying for a Dark Eldar kit too
JohnHwangDD wrote:GW could survive with only 750 SKUs instead of 1,750... Likely more profitable, too.
I'm sure they could. And actually, more or less, I think they do. I think close to 800 of the SKUs are web-store exclusives, and of those, probably 700 of them are kits that people either never buy or kits that some people occasionally buy one of. They're just tucked in somewhere in a warehouse at Nottingham, just in case someone wants battle pilgrims.
I don't think it makes sense to kill off maybe 400 of those SKUs, because those are characters or kits that have a game purpose or are represented in fluff, but aren't worth the investment to tool into plastic. Oh well, better on GW's website, where they do international shipping properly, than Forge World's, where they mangle it in the worst possible way.
On the flip side, I don't know why some of the kits are web-only (like whirlwinds, falcons, and shrine of the aquilla), and I don't know why some of the kits that would sell like hotcakes aren't retooled (like thunderfire cannon). I actually have a terrain project going, and if Aquilla weren't web, I'd buy a whole stack of 'em. The discount for me is a little less on web items from where I buy them, which sounds silly, since the actual dollar amount in the difference is not that significant, but it's a psychological thing... or something.
Kilkrazy wrote: The fact that the number one kit, Smaug, is estimated to have sold about £175,000 worth, doesn't mean that kits nos. 29 to 1,750 sold nothing. How else did GW get to a total revenue of about £115 million in the past year?
That was my estimate and I admit I was off on it. They probably sold about 200 in each batch but I'm not sure how many batches they made of him, 4 or 5, perhaps many more? I haven't kept track.
But I think it's more likely that it's website only sales on the list. Roughly 20% of GW's revenue is from the website, from memory about 40% from independents (for which GW gets less revenue), so by that estimate around 1 in 7 kits are sold via the website... but Smaug being webstore only means all of his kits are sold through the website so Smaugs numbers would be biased by roughly 7 times (if my estimates are correct, of course there would also be some people who didn't buy Smaug but would have if he'd not been web exclusive, but I doubt there's many).
I'm almost certain that my friend who bought one got it through an independent at discount (I recall 20%, maybe I'm totally wrong, though). I kind of want one now that James says it's likely to be discontinued. If it's 25% off, I might be convinced to pull the trigger.
I'll ask my indie if they can get it, and if it's regular trade discounts.
JohnHwangDD wrote: GW could survive with only 750 SKUs instead of 1,750... Likely more profitable, too.
Do you think they should eliminate entire factions, like Orks, Tau or Dark Eldar, or just eliminate the low selling kits from individual factions. For instance, they could drop Cadians, Heavy Weapons and BMPs from IG to just sell Leman Russes and Baneblades.
Interestingly, this probably also means that the $500 Smaug model is the most profitable model produced by a wargaming company in 2015.
Still amazed! I understand that Smaug has a wide appeal, but the thing is, GW isn't selling a finished sculpture. It's still a whole bunch of pieces of resin. It's not like someone who is just into LoTR can buy a finished Smaug from GW. It's got to get from bag of resin to a finished model somehow, so this is still going to be a product primarily for hobbyists -- I think.
Talys wrote: It's not like someone who is just into LoTR can buy a finished Smaug from GW. It's got to get from bag of resin to a finished model somehow, so this is still going to be a product primarily for hobbyists -- I think.
Or people who like LOTR but were not interested in scale models (Revell and other stuff from the toy store) found something they like and wanted to build it. In some AOS thread I mentioned a few times that they just creating the game and hoped and that it will find an audience by itself with zero advertisement and that it's a bad (or inefficient?) way of increasing ones customer base. Not everybody's first wargaming experience is through a dedicated hobby store and many people got into these games through the old MB/GW board-games. LOTR gave GW a way to tap into an audience that is not a traditional tabletop wargaming audience (probably somewhat related due to LOTR but so many people saw the movies who can be classified and not really huge fantasy/sci-fi fans) and they didn't really use it. They just had their LOTR bubble and then, apparently, fumbled The Hobbit instead of using that momentum to expand their audience and reach.
Maybe building stuff with your hands is not such an obscure hobby after all.
warboss wrote: So no AOS specific items (and repackaged or rebranded WHFB stuff doesn't count) at all on the top 28? That doesn't seem like a rousing success for one of only two supported product lines during 2015.
You need to bear in mind that all of the end times range was intended for AoS, which is why they didn't really sit well on square bases, and why they were packaged in the same style as the AoS releases.
Right, but the point he's making is that a lot of people could have bought them for use in End Times, which means they aren't a great metric to use for judging the success of Age of Sigmar. Given the lack of any Age of Sigmar specific kits on the list, I'm inclined to agree. Not a great sign for the system.
It may be a $500 dragon model, but it's still a dragon model. Dragon + "Lord of the Rings" has to equal "I don't care how much it costs" to some people. They could just carry the thing around doing Smaug impressions.
I mean, how many people have purchased dragons from the Bones line when they don't care one bit about any other Bones model, or just want to make a diorama and need some victims?
solkan wrote: It may be a $500 dragon model, but it's still a dragon model. Dragon + "Lord of the Rings" has to equal "I don't care how much it costs" to some people. They could just carry the thing around doing Smaug impressions.
I mean, how many people have purchased dragons from the Bones line when they don't care one bit about any other Bones model, or just want to make a diorama and need some victims?
It's one of the few decent dragons GW has made. Actually, the only one if you exclude FW, lol.
Dragons are something that gw seem to struggle to get right. Reaper are lucky to have Julie Guthrie, I've got a few dragons from the bones range and she, and they, always get it spot on.
It's a matter of taste for the traditional dragons. GW's dragons are very nontraditional, often with skinny, serpentine bodies rather than the bulkier Smaug or D&D Dragonlance look. The Silver/Red/Black/Green dragons out of DL are a perfect example of what I consider a classic dragon look.
Some of their dragons are really cool, like the high elf and wood elves ones, but they don't fit what I normally imagine.
For some reason, in RPGs and computer games, and fiction, I absolutely love the fantasy genre, with dragons right at the top of the lore, but for miniatures, they're not really my thing. I have no idea why, but with miniatures (GW or otherwise), SciFi vehicles just excite me a lot more.
Like you, skunk, I have never really been a fan of GW demons (Skarbramd is an exception).
JohnHwangDD wrote: GW could survive with only 750 SKUs instead of 1,750... Likely more profitable, too.
Do you think they should eliminate entire factions, like Orks, Tau or Dark Eldar, or just eliminate the low selling kits from individual factions. For instance, they could drop Cadians, Heavy Weapons and BMPs from IG to just sell Leman Russes and Baneblades.
GW should have never created so many armies in the first place, but that ship has long passed. At this point, I thing GW is doing the right thing by basically cutting 1,000 Fantasy SKUs from their catalog.
Talys wrote: It's a matter of taste for the traditional dragons. GW's dragons are very nontraditional, often with skinny, serpentine bodies rather than the bulkier Smaug or D&D Dragonlance look. The Silver/Red/Black/Green dragons out of DL are a perfect example of what I consider a classic dragon look.
Some of their dragons are really cool, like the high elf and wood elves ones, but they don't fit what I normally imagine.
For some reason, in RPGs and computer games, and fiction, I absolutely love the fantasy genre, with dragons right at the top of the lore, but for miniatures, they're not really my thing. I have no idea why, but with miniatures (GW or otherwise), SciFi vehicles just excite me a lot more.
Like you, skunk, I have never really been a fan of GW demons (Skarbramd is an exception).
I've spoken to more people who aren't fans of GW dragons than are I think The skinny bodies but with huge heads that looked like a squashed snake head on a stretched out neck, small limbs but with huge extremeties, and they always seem weirdly posed. The old Bretonnian book at the back had a picture of a diorama using a Carnosaur as the basis for a dragon conversion and it looked pretty awesome.
Unless I'm mistaken the two big FW dragons (the regular one and the chaos one) got discontinued a while back, which might partly account for the success of Smaug, since it fills that spot for people who want a big dragon model.
I suppose, but there are non GW dragons to fill that niche. I think Smaug was special, just because he's Smaug.
I'm just genuinely surprised that even worldwide, there's more than a thousand hobbyists (possibly a lot more) who want a $500, unpainted, unassembled resin model of Smaug. Or any dragon of that size, for that matter. It's a significant hobby project to do the model justice, too.
I mean, I guess I shouldn't be, because I never thought there would be as much demand for models like Warlord Titan, Reaver Titans, and Imperial Knights, either. I always thought these "centerpiece" models would be something people would build one of as a centerpiece, not something there would be such an interest of building armies of dozens or more of. It's all fascinating though.
Some will say yes, others will argue no.... All the shops around here still have all the boxes they bought 6 months ago, that's all the evidence I have
@Orock - We'll never really know whether AoS was a flop on its first half-year based on this countdown because it's being measured against WHFB, which wouldn't have done all that well versus 40k for top 28 kits anyhow. Most of us assume that in 2013 and 2014, Fantasy did, GW would have just given us 9e.
One real indicator will be comparing 2H 2015 to 2H 2014.
Games Workshop had 3 consecutive months of Age of Sigmar, and then a few weeks of releases mixed in between 40k stuff in the second half of 2015. There are some other factors, too: in July 2014 (which is part of 2H 2014), Games Workshop gave us Stormclaw, then Space Wolves, Nagash, Space Hulk, Deathstorm and Glotkin, stuff we know or strongly suspect did well. Blood Angels Tacticals don't make the cut, because they were in December, which are technically part of 1H 2015.
Compare with 2015 2H, GW popped out Age of Sigmar Starter, followed by endless weeks of stormcast, generic fantasy terrain, and then some chaos stuff, including the Khornetress. On the 40k side, towards the end, we got Tau, with some really awesome models, but not a lot of time to move them (a couple of months) and with 3 weeks to go to the end of the half-year, they released Betrayal at Calth. I think Space Marines made the start of the half year, and Dark Angels, hut none of those models made a huge impact, based on the top 28 - except, I suppose, space marine tactical, but I'm sure those always sell well. Devastator managed to edge into the bottom of the list. I don't think Burning Dawn and Solaq made nearly as huge an impact as Deathstorm or Stormclaw because they weren't nearly as good a deal.
Now obviously there are other factors (like Smaug, who didn't release until 1H 2015, because it was in December 2014), and it's all more complicated than "what did they release". Still, release windows are important, so I think it's a useful gauge of how well or poorly AoS did. If there were NO reorders of AoS (beyond mandatory first-units), you'd imagine the half-year would be pretty crummy. Also, it's worth keeping in mind that the releases for 2H 2014 were factions that lots of people thought would be good sellers.
Oh yeah, and I didn not mention Dark Eldar from last year, because I don't think that was very impactful to sales.
Talys wrote: I'm just genuinely surprised that even worldwide, there's more than a thousand hobbyists (possibly a lot more) who want a $500, unpainted, unassembled resin model of Smaug. Or any dragon of that size, for that matter. It's a significant hobby project to do the model justice, too.
I mean, I guess I shouldn't be, because I never thought there would be as much demand for models like Warlord Titan, Reaver Titans, and Imperial Knights, either. I always thought these "centerpiece" models would be something people would build one of as a centerpiece, not something there would be such an interest of building armies of dozens or more of. It's all fascinating though.
Maybe it is a UK thing, but in any town/city I know of there are more shops selling model train stuff and airfix/tamiya type models and the associated scenery stuff than wargame stuff. That is stuff which people don't buy to play with but just to make and display. Why is it easier to find shops selling that stuff than wargame stuff (and I mean wargames in the wider sense not just GW)? How many magazines for wargames do you find vs modelling/train magazines in the local newsagent? That usually seems biased to general modelling not wargaming when ever I've looked.
LOTR is a massively well known IP, far beyond anything any wargame can hope to achieve. The highest grossing film trilogy of all time.
Even ignoring your worldwide market, the main market for GW is the EU and USA, plus some other areas (AUS, CAN etc). That is about 1 billion population. If 1 in 1 million people would buy smaug you will sell over 1000.
Of course, but how small do you think. 1 in 1 million is pretty small (and that is not even world wide), and it is a larger market than GW by a large margin based on what I see on the high street (modelling vs mini wargaming).
Talys wrote: @puree - the problem is that only a tiny fraction of that billion people are interested in models of any sort at all.
Then, take out the ones that can't afford $500 for one display model, and I think you're left with a small pool of potential customers.
Have you never ran into someone that collects or has collected miniatures outside the FLGS? If the miniature gamer pool was so small like you are insinuating, then you would never run into anyone.
Also, LoTR+hobbit grossed 6 billion dollars in the cinema, that is a lot of people that might be possible buyers based on the IP.
Talys wrote: I suppose, but there are non GW dragons to fill that niche. I think Smaug was special, just because he's Smaug.
I'm just genuinely surprised that even worldwide, there's more than a thousand hobbyists (possibly a lot more) who want a $500, unpainted, unassembled resin model of Smaug. Or any dragon of that size, for that matter. It's a significant hobby project to do the model justice, too.
...
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I'm not that surprised. Look at DakkaDakka. We've got almost 100,000 members, a lot of whom clearly put a lot of effort and money into their hobby and are easily capable of building the Smaug kit and would regard it as a fun build if they could afford the price of the kit.
We only need 1% of our membership to buy Smaug and there you go, it's no.1.
Incidentally, I still think they sold way more than a thousand Smaugs, as I don't believe that the contest is rigged to exclude non-web sales. Even so, I think whatever channel they picked, it's amazing that it sold at least on a ratio of 1/3 the number of IK models.
I hope they do this next year -- I enjoyed it a lot.
Talys wrote: Incidentally, I still think they sold way more than a thousand Smaugs, as I don't believe that the contest is rigged to exclude non-web sales. Even so, I think whatever channel they picked, it's amazing that it sold at least on a ratio of 1/3 the number of IK models.
I hope they do this next year -- I enjoyed it a lot.
Y'know me too. And I hope they don't reveal their criteria because guessing that was half the fun.
I think the Smaug thing merely reinforces why GW says they make models for collectors and hobbyists, not gamers. The IKT is, by far, the most gamer-friendly model GW released, tied to awesome in-game rules. And it got beat by a model for a game that basically nobody plays.
Talys wrote: I suppose, but there are non GW dragons to fill that niche. I think Smaug was special, just because he's Smaug.
I'm just genuinely surprised that even worldwide, there's more than a thousand hobbyists (possibly a lot more) who want a $500, unpainted, unassembled resin model of Smaug. Or any dragon of that size, for that matter. It's a significant hobby project to do the model justice, too.
I mean, I guess I shouldn't be, because I never thought there would be as much demand for models like Warlord Titan, Reaver Titans, and Imperial Knights, either. I always thought these "centerpiece" models would be something people would build one of as a centerpiece, not something there would be such an interest of building armies of dozens or more of. It's all fascinating though.
I wonder how many were purchased by people who worked on the movies. I could see the SFX guys buying a copy for each manager as a bonus or something. My parents used to get a ton of fairly expensive models for the aircraft they worked on from McDonnel Douglas and Boeing, for example.
The most interesting thing to me is ad mech/skitari is one of the most profitable armies gw has. Nearly everyone of thier box kits is in the top 14.
I'll be hugely surprised if we don't see additional kits for them this year. War convocation will be hugely popular this year. Especially with gw new starter set bundles.
I just don't think the Smaug model is that impressive, at least not $500 impressive. It's probably big, I've never seen one in person so I wouldn't know, but it looks kinda lame how he's all coiled up to fit better on the base. If I'm going to drop that much money on a giant dragon model for display purposes then I want something that looks more imposing than that, with head held up and wings/tail outstretched. The GW Smaug just isn't really doing anything. As far as the level of detail and such goes it's not really that bad otherwise (I'm surprised his skin actually has texture, a lot of the time GW avoids that and leaves scaly creatures skin almost completely smooth because they just can't be bothered I guess), it's just a little overpriced for what it is in my opinion.
the_Armyman wrote: I'm glad for GW that something like a Smaug resin kit can be a success, but I fear for the future when I see Smaug and 8 other Super-heavy/Gargantuan/Monster kits on the list. It just reinforces GW's inbred thought processes towards 40K and Fantasy/AoS. Why make a better game when you can just make larger kits?
Why? So you can have more sales, and more profit and not rely on the large kits. Once the large kits are sold, what are they going to sell and to whom? There is a reason why mega companies buy more than one company that produces a product. GW needs to diverse as well, so they are always selling something. Eventually the collectors will have everything they need.
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Formosa wrote: Without actual sales evidence, I'm inclined to believe gw just made these up, when I worked at a certain high street gaming store, we used to just make up most of the top ten games, this actually led to an increase in sales of those games, so this to me is just a marketing ploy, until proven otherwise.
So why no Age of Sigmar then? Going by what you say, you would think this would be a perfect time for a "marketing" AoS now eh?
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SickSix wrote: Smaug? Clearly they have made this up or used an algorithm to get the desired outcome.
Again, desired outcome really? Then please explain why no Age of Sigmar in top 10?
I don't think GW "made it up", but they choose criteria for inclusion that we don't know and can only guess at.
For example, the qualification period obviously ended before December 2015, and we infer that it included Nov 2014 to capture the first batch of Smaug sales. Maybe it covered Nov 2014 to end Oct 2015.
We also infer from the lack of any starter game boxes that GW excluded model kits that included rulebooks. This rules out Black Reach, Battle of Cattle and Age of Sigmar from consideration. However this is not certain.
For all we know, if these boxes had been included, they would have ranked 1, 2 and 3 and pushed Smaug into 4th place. But equally we could guess they sold so badly that they would have placed embarrasingly low on the ranking, even below 28. Thus we can impute a motive to GW of wanting to preserve their "collectable model" image, or of wanting to conceal their failures with launching games.
Perhaps the three starter boxes were included but sold too badly to get into the top 28. Perhaps BC would have got into no.1 but it was released outside the accounting period.
All this is guesswork piled on guesswork. I mention it only to make clear how we can look at the list and read whatever results we like out of it.
I've always kind of felt that the most significant part of the LotR "boom" was Battle Games in Middle-Earth magazine, which was in general circulation and available from any newsagent. Advertising outside your core market works- who'd have thunk it?
Likewise for AoS. Whatever else you think of the game, GW made an intro range specifically for new players... and forgot to invite any.
I know they had problems with MB over Heroquest and Space Crusade (I believe the phrase was "ripped off"), and I heard mutterings that Warner Brothers were awful to work with (including the rumour that they canned the plastic Smaug that GW presented to them), but there's an alternative GW timeline where they learned differently from LotR and by 2016 are a respected producer of movie tie-in models and games as well as their own ranges.
IMO, the most significant part of LotR's success was the nine-figure movies being released promoting the IP.
That's really the key right there. At least in the U.S. I think. I don't really know anyone who had never played a minis game before and started playing LotR. Even some of the hardcore Tolkien fans I know who absolutely loved the films had no interest in the game. On the other hand, I know a lot of people who were already playing 40k, Fantasy, Warmahordes, etc., who saw those films and, at the very least, bought a few models.
Problem is, even by GW's standards, the LotR stuff was expensive (they probably had to charge extra to cover royalties or some such), and without the movies as an impetus to drive excitement (and therefor sales), the LotR line had little going for it when compared to the other games these people were already playing. It was easy to forget about it at that point.
IMO, the most significant part of LotR's success was the nine-figure movies being released promoting the IP.
Of course the movies were key, and the LotR "bump" does correlate with the run of the films. I probably am exaggerating. GW managed to put their minis into every village newsagent in the country though, and I do wonder at the effect it had. My personal experience (and nothing moe than that) was that it got a lot of kids into the game - as a follow-on from seeing the films. The magazine does seem to have been well received - it had its run extended twice, and several of the staff were recruited for White Dwarf.
BGiME was indeed not available in the US, which does dent my argument - for the US. On the other hand, the LotR starter boxes were insanely cheap in the US - $40 compared to £40 ($80 at the time). I remember plotting how to import them without paying customs and it never seemed to work out cheaper. How much were the 40k and WFB starter boxes at the time? My reading of the recent Rick Priestley interview is that a lot of thought went into attracting new customers to make the game a success - simpler and cheaper models, streamlined rules, and (maybe) a magazine/minis in general circulation.
In the context of this thread, Smaug being No 1 (and the hint that outside collectors may have shown an interest) makes me think that GW could do worse than loo to extend their marketing again. Were there any Smaug modelling and painting articles in modelling or SF&F magazines or websites?
Problem is, even by GW's standards, the LotR stuff was expensive
Are you thinking of the Hobbit miniatures? I agree, they were insanely expensive, and in a much more competitive market. The LotR figures, however, were £12 for 24 infantry at a time when 40k and WFB were asking £15 for 10-20 models. The LotR figures were literally 1/3 the price of a space marine. The price of LotR plastic infantry plastics doubled at the start of 2012, but that was almost a decade AFTER the film boom.
Kilkrazy wrote: LoTR grossed about $315 M in the first six months. The Hobbit grossed about £303 M. (IMDB.)
Even allowing for ticket price inflation, The Hobbit cannot be considered a miserable flop.
Therefore it seems likely that some other factor affected the relative sales success of the two games.
Although a lot of people saw the Hobbit movies, they weren't as well regarded, and The Hobbit is more suited to a roleplaying game than a tabletop wargame. I think that along with some exorbitant prices, even for GW, really are what put a stake in it.
Yeah that too, not being able to buy it in other stores didn't help.
It all combines to make a gak storm, the movie wasn't as popular, it wasn't marketed as widely as LotR, the products were so expensive that even people who wanted them didn't buy them and the lack of a compelling starter set.
IDK about Australia, but when I worked in magazine publishing the conventional wisdom was that the UK market was 80% newsstand, 20% subscription, while the US market was the opposite. This makes magazines potentially a much more powerful promotion in the UK (and much of Europe).
Yeah I have no idea what it is in Australia. I have never followed magazines at all even going back through the 90's, but I don't speak for all Australians.
Kilkrazy wrote: IDK about Australia, but when I worked in magazine publishing the conventional wisdom was that the UK market was 80% newsstand, 20% subscription, while the US market was the opposite. This makes magazines potentially a much more powerful promotion in the UK (and much of Europe).
Interesting, thanks. We often forget here that the US is a continent almost as much as a country. Missed the chance to catch up with internet buddies the last couple of times I've been across in the States, as I hadn't realise that I'd have been travelling the equivalent of the entire length of the UK to meet up...
I know Flames of War had a basic rules booklet on magazine racks for a while, but no miniatures, and I have no information about sales.
I'm not even saying such a magazine would be a smash hit for, say, AoS, not without the backing of a huge film behind it. And the rules have changed - I believe the big newsagents and supermarkets, IIRC, charge publishers for shelf space now?
Sure, LotR (both the films and the tabletop game) and the Smaug kit was both expensive and absolutely stunning, but the Hobbit (films and game again) have been less popular and, well... the Smaug model seemed to pop up, get an "OMG" reaction from everyone then fade away. Conversely, I hear every day people saying how they're going to expand their Tau army this way, or how they're going to get a Knight to bolster their Space Marines...
Sure, LotR (both the films and the tabletop game) and the Smaug kit was both expensive and absolutely stunning, but the Hobbit (films and game again) have been less popular and, well... the Smaug model seemed to pop up, get an "OMG" reaction from everyone then fade away. Conversely, I hear every day people saying how they're going to expand their Tau army this way, or how they're going to get a Knight to bolster their Space Marines...
That's because dakka or your standard wargamer aren't the ones buying Smaug models.
Sure, LotR (both the films and the tabletop game) and the Smaug kit was both expensive and absolutely stunning, but the Hobbit (films and game again) have been less popular and, well... the Smaug model seemed to pop up, get an "OMG" reaction from everyone then fade away. Conversely, I hear every day people saying how they're going to expand their Tau army this way, or how they're going to get a Knight to bolster their Space Marines...
That's because dakka or your standard wargamer aren't the ones buying Smaug models.
Actually I'd say Dakka has a disproportionate number of people who would buy big expensive models for no other reason than they think they're cool. I remember one Dakkanaught posting an unboxing thread when they bought a Smaug.
The problem with the Manta is the thing is so huge you can't do much with it. Smaug is big, but he'll fit on most display shelves. The Manta is both impractical in games AND you can't really display it unless you just turn it in to a coffee table or something, lol.
I'd suggest that's a bigger obstacle than the actual price for many collectors.
Hell, it's why I haven't bought any 1/24 scale aircraft. You can pick them up for only £50-100 and some of them look quite impressive, but I have no where to put it once I build it. Even 1/32 stuff I think hard about before buying them and only buy the ones I REALLY want taking up display space.
@Skink - I'm not so sure about that, though. After all, the Warlord Titan is the top best-seller on Forge World, and it's not like that is easy to fit... anywhere. Do people actually game with those?
Some people hang 1/24 planes from the ceiling, right?
Talys wrote: @Skink - I'm not so sure about that, though. After all, the Warlord Titan is the top best-seller on Forge World, and it's not like that is easy to fit... anywhere. Do people actually game with those?
Some people hang 1/24 planes from the ceiling, right?
Once the item is sold I'm sure GW doesn't give a whole heck of a lot what you do with it..
@Chute82 - for sure. But Skink was saying that Manta isn't likely to have sold well, because it's impractical for both gaming and display. I'm just pointing out that I don't think Warlord is practical for either, as well -- basically, it's a display model for people with a HUGE display space.
Talys wrote: @Chute82 - for sure. But Skink was saying that Manta isn't likely to have sold well, because it's impractical for both gaming and display. I'm just pointing out that I don't think Warlord is practical for either, as well -- basically, it's a display model for people with a HUGE display space.
I have a gaming buddy that has pretty much everything. All the armorcast models, FW models and around $70k in GW pastic and metal models. His whole basement is lined with shelves of 40k models,it's quite a thing to see. He has never played a game of apocalypse with all these huge Titan models he has, matter of fact he hasn't played 40k in years. He is GW's ideal customer
Talys wrote: @Skink - I'm not so sure about that, though. After all, the Warlord Titan is the top best-seller on Forge World, and it's not like that is easy to fit... anywhere. Do people actually game with those?
Some people hang 1/24 planes from the ceiling, right?
Those are reaver titans. The warlord is actually quite a bit larger I love how small the puny contemptors are beneath. Incidentally, one of the really difficult things, IMO, about "gaming" with warlords is just transporting them. The whole assembly makes it seem dubious that many people would take this guy somewhere other than their own house to game with; it just seems too likely you'd break something on such a nice model.
I wonder when GW will make an Emperor titan? If 40k survives for another two centuries, the centerpiece models will be the size of the Space Marine statue that used to be outside of GWHQ, and gaming bases will have casters on them!
Talys wrote: @Skink - I'm not so sure about that, though. After all, the Warlord Titan is the top best-seller on Forge World, and it's not like that is easy to fit... anywhere. Do people actually game with those?
Some people hang 1/24 planes from the ceiling, right?
Unless I'm mistaken the Warlord Titan is much more practical. It is 22" tall and it's taller than it is wide, so it probably fits within a circle of, what, 15" diameter? I think you might have a chance of fitting it in to a bunch of display units if you remove the shelf above it or on top if they have an open display area. You could put it in the corner of a desk and while it might be imposing you'll still be able to use the desk. The Manta on the other hand is 24" deep and 34" wide. It's just a huge footprint that I'm sure some people have been stopped from buying it as a display piece because it's too unwieldy for them to display.
It doesn't mean I don't think ANYONE bought it, obviously SOME people have bought it But the likes of Smaug and even a Warlord Titan are much more practical display pieces.
Yeah, some people hang 1/24 models from the ceiling, it doesn't really appeal to me though, 1/24 WW2 fighters are about ~20" wide and ~16" long but because of the way the wings are laid out you can stagger them to save space or fit smaller scale aircraft around them if you want (assuming you haven't done some scenic bases for them). A know several people who said they would have bought the 1/24 Mosquito right up until they discovered it's 20" deep and 27" wide 1/48 I think is a popular scale because it's large enough to have good detail but still small enough that you can display them on a scenic base in a realistic area (or several without scenic bases) without having a dedicated display room with large display cases,
I had a 1:72 B-52 at some point, fether was so big I had to hang it from the ceiling, though thankfully the creators thought about that and the kit came with several small holes in the wing and fuselage to loop your wire through.
From what I understand those 1/72 B52's were never all that popular due to their size, I remember someone commenting that they couldn't get aftermarket parts for that reason.
Funnily enough I think a 1/72 B52 is about the size of a Manta
The 1/48 B-29 is also a pretty large kit, I think it may be slightly larger than the 1/72 B52.
The big difference being that those kits are plastic, and spindly.
Versus the giant resin garbage can lid that is the Tau Manta. Could you imagine hanging that thing from drywall? At 28+ lbs, I'd be in terror of it falling down and killing someone.
It's not scientific, not everyone posts pictures, not everyone uses the Dakka Gallery, not everyone tags their images, but it certainly indicates there's not a vast pool of people on Dakka psyked about their Smaug models.
@Kid_Kyoto - that made me think of the Warlord. Wow, there's a Warlord on a gaming table, in the Dakka Gallery
Look how big that is compared to the Fortress of Redemption, LOL. And how puny imperial knights look. And the baneblade. It looks like it could step on the baneblade haha. It's a nice photo for scale of the Castigator knights, too.
I recall seeing it at the shop, and thinking "wow, where would I put that?"
I kinda feel that there are rapidly diminishing returns when any physical dimension exceeds 2 feet.
Definitely. The modelling forums discussing the the B1 talk about keeping it in the garage.
Ship models do better by being basically linear, so they can easily be displayed on a mantlepiece or shelf.
The Hercules could be used as the centrepiece for some big display game of skirmish, special forces versus terrorists kind of scenario, but it's a very specialist application.
It wasn't THAT off topic... we were discussing the relative sizes of models and the impact size might have on desirability of certain models. Thus relating to the most popular miniatures (or bigatures) made by FW and GW.
It would be off topic in the thread you linked because our discussion had nothing to do with using historic kits in 40k
Well, the entire tangent started off because of the Tau titan that most of us have never seen and its practicality. I do agree that, for most people, length and width are much greater impediments than height when determining the suitability of owning a large model, especially when a model has both both length and width (like a bomber, compared to a man-o-war).
Hence, the attraction of titans to companies like GW, I guess
I wonder if 40k will ever contain naval units? It would be kind of a cool game. Instead of infantry and air, you could have water-based models (and air), on a board set against blue instead of green/brown/grey. Imagine all the cool water terrain (floating fortresses, etc). Battles set on oceanic planets with big rigs designed to extract precious minerals and all that.
Talys wrote: Well, the entire tangent started off because of the Tau titan that most of us have never seen and its practicality. I do agree that, for most people, length and width are much greater impediments than height when determining the suitability of owning a large model, especially when a model has both both length and width (like a bomber, compared to a man-o-war).
Hence, the attraction of titans to companies like GW, I guess
I wonder if 40k will ever contain naval units? It would be kind of a cool game. Instead of infantry and air, you could have water-based models (and air), on a board set against blue instead of green/brown/grey. Imagine all the cool water terrain (floating fortresses, etc). Battles set on oceanic planets with big rigs designed to extract precious minerals and all that.
I've proposed that as a joke example of what else is left for GW to stick into the game and spoil it even more.
If you think airplanes and tanks are big, you should have a look at boats. Even a fairly small boat is a surprisingly large thing, and naval weapons have surprisingly long ranges. The tiny Vietnam era Pibber was 32 feet long, compared to an M1 tank at 26 feet. Imagine what a torpedo boat or even a frigate would be like.
JohnHwangDD wrote: Kids today like robots more than boats. A lot more. And I don't blame them. GW makes good money selling robots, and I don't see them stopping.
Regardless, all this big model stuff, and I picked up an Imperial Knight Warden after work today.
So that's a +1 to the #2 item on the list, the #1 item for 40k proper.
Yes, it's a silly thing to have gotten. Yes, it encourages the whole "bigger is better" treadmill, but I've traded off the bulk of my GW to-do pile, and I got and built the Wraithknight last year. In context, I don't actually feel bad at all for having gotten the new Knight!
JohnHwangDD wrote: Wait, isn't Oz a continent, as well as a country? And what about India?
Nope. Australia is part of Australasia, sometimes called Oceana, and includes places like New Guinea etc, and India is a sub-continent.
Australia is a continent at least as much as the U.S. is. Unless you're counting Canada as part of the USA? Not that it matters for this discussion since the population is vastly smaller than the US with most of the population concentrated around several cities on the Eastern seaboard. Anyway, I don't have hard numbers, but local newsagents stocking magazines were a very common sight in most suburbs - even small ones, though that has declined with the rise of online, so while I saw the LotR SBIME magazine pretty much everywhere last decade, the magazine trade and even locations that sell them has declined markedly since then.
I had spitballed this as an idea when rumours of 7th started dropping. With 6th focusing on flyers my logic was , what could GW do to introduce a totally new mechanic and model range (aka flyers) for 7th.
Obviously didnt happen but an intriguing idea none the less Would even allow them to release naval robg tiles and scenery etc.
nareik wrote: The best use I heard for the Manta is using it as a game board.
Idk why every ones sayin they are hard to display. Just drill dome hoops into it and put that beast on the ceiling over ur game board. One day the manta will be mine but I need to fill my air caste first.
FWIW, Frontline Gaming has published their own top GW sellers for 2015 starting at about 5 minutes...
Betrayal at Calth
Eldar Windrider Bikes
Drop Pods
Skittari Rangers
Ghostkeel
Skyrunner HQ Eldar bikes
Onager Walker
Ironstrider Strider
Codex Space Marines
Knight Warden
No AOS in sight just like on GW's list. As Reecius says, the list is mostly populated by new model stuff (unsurprising for the admech especially as they're all completely new for a new faction) and ridiculously buffed units like drop pods (free in the OP gladius formation) and eldar bikes with biker leaders. BAC is on the top likely because of the sheer value of the models in that kit.
As usual, apply salt as needed. YMMV. *insert anecdotal dismissal here* Frontline gaming is pretty 40k heavy but frankly (no Frankie pun intended) so is most of the world seemingly.
Keep in mind that FLG gives an extra discount on the entire order if you buy anything in preorder. So, if you buy a preorder item, you get 25% discount on everything, including the landraider -- I think that weights the new releases a little bit.
Also, IMO, FLG's website is somewhere that people who game a lot go to; they have useful resources there, and that may also influence who buys stuff from them online.
That being said, there's a lot of overlap between the GW list and the FLG list, with the notable exception of eldar bikes. Skittari, Imperial Knight, CSM, Drop Pods are all on both lists.
I find it a little surprising that the Eldar HQ bike is a top seller, being an expensive clampack and all that. I'm also surprised Ghostkeel makes the list near the top, only because it had so little time to sell.
On the other hand, I was really shocked that the Eldar Windrider didn't make the GW list. I thought that would be a sure thing, especially since it sold out for a while.
You could go back to the conspiracy theory that GW knows they get flak for their poor balance and lied on the list to hide that overpowered models sell more.
AllSeeingSkink wrote: You could go back to the conspiracy theory that GW knows they get flak for their poor balance and lied on the list to hide that overpowered models sell more.
We've debated that very theory in our gaming group mostly, the windriders... and we all thought there would be an uptick of wraith units. Incidentally, the store I shop at went from selling a lot of wave serpents to nearly none
Against that theory are drop pods. There really isn't any other reason for them to be a bestseller after this many years other than its dollar to efficiency ratio.
Against that theory are drop pods. There really isn't any other reason for them to be a bestseller after this many years other than its dollar to efficiency ratio.
Except that they got two great buffs in the latest codex that made them and the entire formation they're in stupid good...namely they cost ZERO points and are obsec like most if not all of the popular gladius formation army they're taken in. They help prove the theory that OP rules sell models at least for Frontline's decidedly 40k tourney centric clientele.
JohnHwangDD wrote: OTOH, the Wraithknight isn't on the FLG list... And lord knows there's whinging over that model.
John, you're comparing a $115 model that you can only take a few of max in one xenos codex to a $37 model you can take ten or more of available in four or five codex books including the single biggest selling faction? Of course the latter will sell more models total. Two wrongs don't make a right and the cheesiness of a marine formation in no way excuses the massive undercoating of the wraithknight.
JohnHwangDD wrote: How, exactly, can anything be more undercosted than FREE?
It's not a contest. Two wrongs don't make a right. Whether one "wins" by being 100% undercoated (the drop pod) versus the other "winning" by total points (100+ under for the wraithknight), we all lose as a community.
Against that theory are drop pods. There really isn't any other reason for them to be a bestseller after this many years other than its dollar to efficiency ratio.
Except that they got two great buffs in the latest codex that made them and the entire formation they're in stupid good...namely they cost ZERO points and are obsec like most if not all of the popular gladius formation army they're taken in. They help prove the theory that OP rules sell models at least for Frontline's decidedly 40k tourney centric clientele.
Oh, you misunderstand me (I think). I think drop pods on GW and FLG lists are the perfect example of people buying models for gaming advantage. They're super cheap (dollar wise) and Astartes have multiple paths to filling up with them. Not only that, these are models that don't require rocket science to get good mileage out of.
I think pods are a point against the conspiracy theory that GW is rigging the list to not contain powerful units -- as opposed to windriders, which would be a point for the coinspiracy, being excluded to 'prove' people don't buy 'op' models. Like pods, they're easy to populate to high numbers, and effective even for poor players.
JohnHwangDD wrote: How, exactly, can anything be more undercosted than FREE?
It's not a contest. Two wrongs don't make a right. Whether one "wins" by being 100% undercoated (the drop pod) versus the other "winning" by total points (100+ under for the wraithknight), we all lose as a community.
What's interesting is that both FLG and GW have IK as bestselling but not WK. Arguably, at least I would argue, Wraithknight is just way better for the points. And the new formation makes it easy to have lots, though ITC limits that severely.
JohnHwangDD wrote: How, exactly, can anything be more undercosted than FREE?
It's not a contest.
Two wrongs don't make a right.
Whether one "wins" by being 100% undercoated (the drop pod) versus the other "winning" by total points (100+ under for the wraithknight), we all lose as a community.
Actually, it is.
And yes, they do. It's called "balance".
The WK isn't undercosted AT ALL, given the limitations on what it actually does (or is intended to do), which is to put a brake on the IKTs and other mega-units in 7E. One might argue that the WK is actually underpowered, given that the IKT went #2 on the GW list and the WK was far behind. The WK Rock isn't insta-deleting the Imperial and other uber units fast enough to provide provide the proper automatic counter that GW intended as Rock to balance in the metagame, allowing IG / CSM Paper to flourish in the absence if IKT Scissors.
I suspect that my newly-acquired IKT has far more metagame potential the WK I acquired last year, and is clearly worth the additional points. The WK, while good, and as cheap as GW could price it, simply hasn't shifted the metagame to the point that it's a Top 25 / Top 10 model.
You've actually found two since he's arguing with me. There are Craftworld Eldar and there are Kraftworld Eldar.
I'm also an IG, marine, and Tau player whose favorite army used to be Speed Freak Orks in 3rd edition (hence the username here on dakka) but I try to not let my own armies color my opinions on what is or isn't fair in the game (even if I don't play it much since 6th edition started the apocalypsification of the game that I dislike).
The WK isn't undercosted AT ALL, given the limitations on what it actually does (or is intended to do), which is to put a brake on the IKTs and other mega-units in 7E. One might argue that the WK is actually underpowered, given that the IKT went #2 on the GW list and the WK was far behind. The WK Rock isn't insta-deleting the Imperial and other uber units fast enough to provide provide the proper automatic counter that GW intended as Rock to balance in the metagame, allowing IG / CSM Paper to flourish in the absence if IKT Scissors.
I suspect that my newly-acquired IKT has far more metagame potential the WK I acquired last year, and is clearly worth the additional points. The WK, while good, and as cheap as GW could price it, simply hasn't shifted the metagame to the point that it's a Top 25 / Top 10 model.
John, the top 28 GW or top 10 FLGS list isn't the sole and complete indicator of cheese in the game. I think you'll find your opinion on the WK being fairly priced let alone underpowered to be in the minority.
One might argue that the WK is actually underpowered
Found the Eldar player.
Also, did you seriously just say that the WK allows CSMs and IG to play competitively well? Really?
Given my sig specifies 9,000 pts of Eldar, and it's my largest 40k army, I'm assuming that was quite the feat of detective work. For you.
If the WK did a better job of auto-nuking IKTs and similar mega-units, it would bring the overall meta closer to 5E where IG and CSM were less uncompetitive.
No, it would bring the meta to the point where Eldar would be even more above the rest. IG and CSM would still be below trench-tier. All that would change is that every other army in the game would have a harder time beating Eldar.
Oh I don't worry, it was a giant feat to make a 'found the ___' joke. I had to have a power nap afterwards because it was such an intensive exercise. You know, I might just go have another quick nap, I still feel exhausted.
warboss wrote: John, the top 28 GW or top 10 FLGS list isn't the sole and complete indicator of cheese in the game.
I think you'll find your opinion on the WK being fairly priced let alone underpowered to be in the minority.
It's a pretty decent indicator of popularity crossed with power. Note the total lack of Mutilators, Possessed, Ogryns, Rough Riders, Howling Banshees and similar crap units. Note the #2 spot being the IKT.
Well, yeah. The WK didn't even make top 28 in the GW list. It got outsold by multiple WFB kits, for pity's sake. Craftworld Eldar are very clearly a small minority of players, and no perceived power bump on the occasional model is sufficient to catapult them into the majority. Unlike Tau, which got their brand new Stormsurge on the board. And the Harlequins which got 2 kits up.
Talys wrote: Well, the entire tangent started off because of the Tau titan that most of us have never seen and its practicality. I do agree that, for most people, length and width are much greater impediments than height when determining the suitability of owning a large model, especially when a model has both both length and width (like a bomber, compared to a man-o-war).
Hence, the attraction of titans to companies like GW, I guess
I wonder if 40k will ever contain naval units? It would be kind of a cool game. Instead of infantry and air, you could have water-based models (and air), on a board set against blue instead of green/brown/grey. Imagine all the cool water terrain (floating fortresses, etc). Battles set on oceanic planets with big rigs designed to extract precious minerals and all that.
The summer of floaters!
Suddenly everyone will be running out to buy units with the Seafire ability!
Talys wrote: I think pods are a point against the conspiracy theory that GW is rigging the list to not contain powerful units -- as opposed to windriders, which would be a point for the coinspiracy, being excluded to 'prove' people don't buy 'op' models. Like pods, they're easy to populate to high numbers, and effective even for poor players.
When you're dodgying up a list, you don't go and say "oh, what is clearly popular because it's overpowered, lets ignore those" You make your list without dodgying it up and then go "hmmm, Eldar jetbikes in the #3 spot.... hmmm, lets pretend that didn't happen".
The best way to doctor results is use reality up until it no longer suits your needs and then make small changes until it does
Talys wrote: I think pods are a point against the conspiracy theory that GW is rigging the list to not contain powerful units -- as opposed to windriders, which would be a point for the coinspiracy, being excluded to 'prove' people don't buy 'op' models. Like pods, they're easy to populate to high numbers, and effective even for poor players.
When you're dodgying up a list, you don't go and say "oh, what is clearly popular because it's overpowered, lets ignore those" You make your list without dodgying it up and then go "hmmm, Eldar jetbikes in the #3 spot.... hmmm, lets pretend that didn't happen".
The best way to doctor results is use reality up until it no longer suits your needs and then make small changes until it does
Heh, yup Hence, our local conspiracy theory debate! (and of course, this one at Dakka! )
AllSeeingSkink wrote: You could go back to the conspiracy theory that GW knows they get flak for their poor balance and lied on the list to hide that overpowered models sell more.
We've debated that very theory in our gaming group mostly, the windriders... and we all thought there would be an uptick of wraith units. Incidentally, the store I shop at went from selling a lot of wave serpents to nearly none
Against that theory are drop pods. There really isn't any other reason for them to be a bestseller after this many years other than its dollar to efficiency ratio.
That's what I was thinking, but if we accept the conspiracy theory maybe Drop Pods aren't selling well and GW are trying to boost them. Once you start down the conspiracy rabbit hole, there's no end of the weird twists and turns that you can discover.
But being realistic, there are a lot of 40K players, and a high proportion of them have SM armies -- in fact SM armies are particularly popular with new beginners. If you have an SM army it makes good sense to have at least one to three drop pods in your vehicle park.
AllSeeingSkink wrote: You could go back to the conspiracy theory that GW knows they get flak for their poor balance and lied on the list to hide that overpowered models sell more.
We've debated that very theory in our gaming group mostly, the windriders... and we all thought there would be an uptick of wraith units. Incidentally, the store I shop at went from selling a lot of wave serpents to nearly none
Against that theory are drop pods. There really isn't any other reason for them to be a bestseller after this many years other than its dollar to efficiency ratio.
That's what I was thinking, but if we accept the conspiracy theory maybe Drop Pods aren't selling well and GW are trying to boost them. Once you start down the conspiracy rabbit hole, there's no end of the weird twists and turns that you can discover.
But being realistic, there are a lot of 40K players, and a high proportion of them have SM armies -- in fact SM armies are particularly popular with new beginners. If you have an SM army it makes good sense to have at least one to three drop pods in your vehicle park.
The drop pods aren't really out of place if you accept that BA Tacticals, SM Tacticals, SMDevs and the LR Crusader are all in the list.
The surprising thing is the complete lack of Eldar. I believe most of the "new release" stuff is represented in the top 28 list except for Eldar and AoS, and I thought Eldar have always been a popular faction, more so with their overpoweredness. Even before jetbikes were so badly OP I was holding out for GW to release a new jetbike set and I'm not even an Eldar player, I know a lot of people were (probably more than are holding out for plastic Sisters ).
I think Eldar get over represented on open gaming tables as they are a competitive army and competitive players seem to like getting more 'practice' games in than any other type of player. They are also more likely to attend competitive events, further enhancing the illusion of the scale of popularity of Eldar.
As long as I've been collecting (2nd) it seems Eldar has always had a following, I certainly would have expected more so than Tyranids who got several kits on the top 28.
AllSeeingSkink wrote: As long as I've been collecting (2nd) it seems Eldar has always had a following, I certainly would have expected more so than Tyranids who got several kits on the top 28.
Really? I've always been told Tyranids were the most popular Xeno faction.
AllSeeingSkink wrote: As long as I've been collecting (2nd) it seems Eldar has always had a following, I certainly would have expected more so than Tyranids who got several kits on the top 28.
Really? I've always been told Tyranids were the most popular Xeno faction.
Well maybe, who knows, were sales numbers for Tyranids released in the Chapterhouse case? That's probably the best guess we'll get. Back in the CH case numbers, the Eldar codex sold 2x the amount as the Tau codex sold and a similar amount to Blood Angels and Space Wolves and siginificantly more than Dark Angels, but 'nids aren't on the list I have. I do remember there being a more comprehensive list somewhere but I don't know where it is now.
AllSeeingSkink wrote: As long as I've been collecting (2nd) it seems Eldar has always had a following, I certainly would have expected more so than Tyranids who got several kits on the top 28.
Really? I've always been told Tyranids were the most popular Xeno faction.
Well maybe, who knows, were sales numbers for Tyranids released in the Chapterhouse case? That's probably the best guess we'll get. Back in the CH case numbers, the Eldar codex sold 2x the amount as the Tau codex sold and a similar amount to Blood Angels and Space Wolves and siginificantly more than Dark Angels, but 'nids aren't on the list I have. I do remember there being a more comprehensive list somewhere but I don't know where it is now.
Oh, I'm just relying on hearsay anyway from different shop folk-and GW's most popular miniatures list.
I had forgotten about the CH list, but I don't recall anyone ever mentioning Tyranids in it. (Also, one could always claim they doctored the list to put them in a better position to turn the screws on Chapterhouse )
AllSeeingSkink wrote: As long as I've been collecting (2nd) it seems Eldar has always had a following, I certainly would have expected more so than Tyranids who got several kits on the top 28.
Really? I've always been told Tyranids were the most popular Xeno faction.
Well maybe, who knows, were sales numbers for Tyranids released in the Chapterhouse case? That's probably the best guess we'll get. Back in the CH case numbers, the Eldar codex sold 2x the amount as the Tau codex sold and a similar amount to Blood Angels and Space Wolves and siginificantly more than Dark Angels, but 'nids aren't on the list I have. I do remember there being a more comprehensive list somewhere but I don't know where it is now.
Oh, I'm just relying on hearsay anyway from different shop folk-and GW's most popular miniatures list.
I had forgotten about the CH list, but I don't recall anyone ever mentioning Tyranids in it. (Also, one could always claim they doctored the list to put them in a better position to turn the screws on Chapterhouse )
As stupid as GW's lawyers were I'd hope they weren't stupid enough to lie on documents they are presenting in court Lying on a random "top 28" list that only a few nerds are going to care about isn't quite as serious
AllSeeingSkink wrote: As stupid as GW's lawyers were I'd hope they weren't stupid enough to lie on documents they are presenting in court Lying on a random "top 28" list that only a few nerds are going to care about isn't quite as serious
IIRC they told Chapterhouse's lawyers they didn't have the contact details of various original Rogue Trader artists and collaborators Chapterhouse wanted to depose while at the same time GW was contacting them themselves to get them to retroactively sign away their rights to works from the 1980's in 2010+ to shore up their case. Unfortunately, the judge who seemingly had no interest in having his time wasted on a plastic toy soldier case didn't bother to penalize the lawyer responsible for that.
This is a time senstive list, apparently. Wraithknights have been OP since the codex before last, and because of their high RRP are more likely to encourage players to look to the second hand (or even recast) market.
Droppods, while almost certainly always popular, have received a buff in the time frame pertinent to this list, likely prompting both new and exisiting players to buy more than they perhaps may have done in previous years.
Plus, WKs realistically top out at 3 in most competitive size lists, whereas one could easily use 9 or more free droppods if one had a mind too.
This is a time senstive list, apparently. Wraithknights have been OP since the codex before last, and because of their high RRP are more likely to encourage players to look to the second hand (or even recast) market.
Droppods, while almost certainly always popular, have received a buff in the time frame pertinent to this list, likely prompting both new and exisiting players to buy more than they perhaps may have done in previous years.
Plus, WKs realistically top out at 3 in most competitive size lists, whereas one could easily use 9 or more free droppods if one had a mind too.
It's not really the lack of the Wraithknight that surprises me as much as the lack of jetbikes. They're new models, models which Eldar players have been wanting for quite a while AND they're OP.
Well, the Indy list outright contradicts the GW one on that score, and I'd guess that if you were going to replace (or more likely increase) your jet bike contingent then you'd not want to pay full RRP for the privilege.
Azreal13 wrote: Well, the Indy list outright contradicts the GW one on that score, and I'd guess that if you were going to replace (or more likely increase) your jet bike contingent then you'd not want to pay full RRP for the privilege.
That argument can be made for just about anything expensive though. I'd think when buying something small and cheap (do GW even make cheap things anymore? ) getting the 10-20% discount doesn't matter quite so much because it only saves you a few bucks. I'd often buy cheaper stuff direct from GW because it was usually the most convenient way to do it. But on a Knight Warden you're looking at saving ~$30 buying from an indie so I'm willing to travel the extra 20 minutes to get to my FLGS or wait for it to come from an indie online store.
AllSeeingSkink wrote: As long as I've been collecting (2nd) it seems Eldar has always had a following, I certainly would have expected more so than Tyranids who got several kits on the top 28.
There is an Grape vs Orange vs Pineapple thing going on here.
GW releases ~ designer popularity (<<<<1% of total population): 1. Eldar 2. Orks 3. Tau 4. Tyranids
FRG Top 10 ~ competitive gamer popularity (<5% of total population): 1. Tau 2. Eldar 3. Tyranids 4. Orks
GW Top 28 ~ general public popularity (95+% of total population): 1. Tyranids (ref. Starcraft / Starship Troopers / Alien) 2. Tau (ref anime, giant robots) 3. Eldar 4. Orks
Something like that. Depending on which segment you are looking at, popularity varies dramatically. Except for Orks, which are "for fun".
Holding out for Sisters? Good luck, because the one segment that really matters (the GW designers) doesn't really care for them.
Azreal13 wrote: Well, the Indy list outright contradicts the GW one on that score, and I'd guess that if you were going to replace (or more likely increase) your jet bike contingent then you'd not want to pay full RRP for the privilege.
That argument can be made for just about anything expensive though. I'd think when buying something small and cheap (do GW even make cheap things anymore? ) getting the 10-20% discount doesn't matter quite so much because it only saves you a few bucks. I'd often buy cheaper stuff direct from GW because it was usually the most convenient way to do it. But on a Knight Warden you're looking at saving ~$30 buying from an indie so I'm willing to travel the extra 20 minutes to get to my FLGS or wait for it to come from an indie online store.
I expect people were buying a LOT more than one Jetbike...
Is it possible that the FLG list is based on units sold, while the GW list is based on dollars sold? That would account for things like Tyranid Swarm and Imperial Knight, and may explain how the Farseer on Jetbike makes the list at all.
On a dollar basis, I just don't see how the Farseer could make the list. It's neither expensive enough, nor a unit players are likely to buy enough of, to exceed dollars value of Knight Warden sales, IMO.
Also, I didn't watch the video, but the list that warboss posted doesn't really contradict the GW list at all *except for the two Eldar units*. Betrayal at Calth isn't on the GW list because they didn't include starter boxes, and Ghostkeel being on one while Stormsurge is on the other is not really a big deal, especially if you consider that it might be dollars vs. units. The both are full of the admech, they both have CSM, and they both have drop pods.
Isn't the farseer bike kit the only way to make warlocks on bikes as well? For a bike heavy eldar list, iiirc you need a warlock leading squads on top of the popular warlock only squad. Since there was no previous official kit and chapterhouse's version might have disappeared after the court case, I suspect demand was high.
Azreal13 wrote: Well, the Indy list outright contradicts the GW one on that score, and I'd guess that if you were going to replace (or more likely increase) your jet bike contingent then you'd not want to pay full RRP for the privilege.
That argument can be made for just about anything expensive though. I'd think when buying something small and cheap (do GW even make cheap things anymore? ) getting the 10-20% discount doesn't matter quite so much because it only saves you a few bucks. I'd often buy cheaper stuff direct from GW because it was usually the most convenient way to do it. But on a Knight Warden you're looking at saving ~$30 buying from an indie so I'm willing to travel the extra 20 minutes to get to my FLGS or wait for it to come from an indie online store.
I expect people were buying a LOT more than one Jetbike...
I'm sure they were, but my point is that people would have that approach for anything expensive, like several of the kits on the list.
Azreal13 wrote: Well, the Indy list outright contradicts the GW one on that score, and I'd guess that if you were going to replace (or more likely increase) your jet bike contingent then you'd not want to pay full RRP for the privilege.
That argument can be made for just about anything expensive though. I'd think when buying something small and cheap (do GW even make cheap things anymore? ) getting the 10-20% discount doesn't matter quite so much because it only saves you a few bucks. I'd often buy cheaper stuff direct from GW because it was usually the most convenient way to do it. But on a Knight Warden you're looking at saving ~$30 buying from an indie so I'm willing to travel the extra 20 minutes to get to my FLGS or wait for it to come from an indie online store.
I expect people were buying a LOT more than one Jetbike...
I'm sure they were, but my point is that people would have that approach for anything expensive, like several of the kits on the list.
There's a couple of things to consider when you're looking at discounts, I think.
One thing is that if you want one more farseer on a jetbike or one more box of windriders, whatever store is closer and has inventory may win out over the price tag, especially if the discount is only 10% or thereabouts, and especially if the travel distance is great.
I agree that the big, $150+ kit is more likely to have me dreaming of ways to get a bigger discount than with the $40 kit, even if I may buy multiples of the $40 kit. For example, every 5% definitely counts with a $150 kit; I'll definitely drive a little further to get an extra 10%, and I'm probably willing buy two of them kit if the store will go nuts and give me 30% or 35% off. On the $40 kit, whatever. 15%, 20%, 25%... whoever has it closer gets the sale. The $4 or $5 difference just doesn't matter enough to me to go further (plus gas, my time, all that).
I think one compelling reason to order from GW is if you aren't in a reasonable travel distance of an alternative. A 20% discount sounds great, but as much not if you have to drive for 45 minutes there and back. Order a not-unreasonable-amount (I think, $80?) and you get free shipping, here. For a lot of people, if you're looking at $80 with free shipping or $64 and a 45 minute drive, they'll just take the free shipping.
Azreal13 wrote: Well, the Indy list outright contradicts the GW one on that score, and I'd guess that if you were going to replace (or more likely increase) your jet bike contingent then you'd not want to pay full RRP for the privilege.
That argument can be made for just about anything expensive though. I'd think when buying something small and cheap (do GW even make cheap things anymore? ) getting the 10-20% discount doesn't matter quite so much because it only saves you a few bucks. I'd often buy cheaper stuff direct from GW because it was usually the most convenient way to do it. But on a Knight Warden you're looking at saving ~$30 buying from an indie so I'm willing to travel the extra 20 minutes to get to my FLGS or wait for it to come from an indie online store.
I expect people were buying a LOT more than one Jetbike...
I'm sure they were, but my point is that people would have that approach for anything expensive, like several of the kits on the list.
Then we start to see a separation based on the different customer profiles I suspect. Outside, perhaps, of the odd spontaneous purchase or the local GW being the only available play space, any hobbyist outside of the casualist of the most casual who games in any meaningful way will channel their funds somewhere that'll earn them discount.
Anyone buying anything at full RRP from GW is likely invested in the GW ecosystem, they're quite possibly completely ignorant of third parties because that's how GW want it, and the GW "way" is to build collections, not armies. Hence people buying direct probably are of a mindset to buy a unit of 3 or 5 Jetbikes, not a whole damn cavalry regiment of them, whereas the customers of the likes of FLG are building armies in the old fashioned sense.
Judging by my recent experiences, it is getting harder and harder to buy things in actual GW shops.
The amount of stock on display is so small that you'll only find a few of the main kits and a few clamshell packs for each army in the whole range.
No doubt there are people who go in on a whim and buy something because it catches their eye, but if you are planning an army and have specific requirements, it makes no sense to visit the shop because they quite likely won't have what you need.
The problem with this is that particularly for the more expensive individual Finecast kits, you really want to be able to look at the sprue before buying it.
I recently went to a recruitment night in a GW store after closing hours. The staff tried to flog the new AdMech Tech Priests to us at a discount because they had like 15 that weren't selling.
Ironically, if they stocked more Hobbit I might have actually been tempted to make an impulse purchase.
Kilkrazy wrote: Judging by my recent experiences, it is getting harder and harder to buy things in actual GW shops.
The amount of stock on display is so small that you'll only find a few of the main kits and a few clamshell packs for each army in the whole range.
No doubt there are people who go in on a whim and buy something because it catches their eye, but if you are planning an army and have specific requirements, it makes no sense to visit the shop because they quite likely won't have what you need.
The problem with this is that particularly for the more expensive individual Finecast kits, you really want to be able to look at the sprue before buying it.
It's a symptom of the huge range GW have these days. 10 years ago they carried EVERYTHING that was in the catalogue at my local store, but the shelves weren't cramped. Now they've moved to a larger store, stack boxes in a more space efficient way (more cramped and worse from a display perspective) and STILL don't manage to carry the whole range.
That said, my local store is about 95% likely to have any plastic boxed set you might want and probably about 50% on Failcast stuff, so still not terrible odds.
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Azreal13 wrote: Then we start to see a separation based on the different customer profiles I suspect. Outside, perhaps, of the odd spontaneous purchase or the local GW being the only available play space, any hobbyist outside of the casualist of the most casual who games in any meaningful way will channel their funds somewhere that'll earn them discount.
Anyone buying anything at full RRP from GW is likely invested in the GW ecosystem, they're quite possibly completely ignorant of third parties because that's how GW want it, and the GW "way" is to build collections, not armies. Hence people buying direct probably are of a mindset to buy a unit of 3 or 5 Jetbikes, not a whole damn cavalry regiment of them, whereas the customers of the likes of FLG are building armies in the old fashioned sense.
Yeah I don't know how much I agree with that. I understand what you're saying, I'm just not really sure it's true.
Maybe it's just local bias because in the month of the Eldar release I literally saw 2 people walk in to my local GW and walk out with a pile of jet bikes and a Wraithknight or two
Kilkrazy wrote: Judging by my recent experiences, it is getting harder and harder to buy things in actual GW shops.
The amount of stock on display is so small that you'll only find a few of the main kits and a few clamshell packs for each army in the whole range.
No doubt there are people who go in on a whim and buy something because it catches their eye, but if you are planning an army and have specific requirements, it makes no sense to visit the shop because they quite likely won't have what you need.
The problem with this is that particularly for the more expensive individual Finecast kits, you really want to be able to look at the sprue before buying it.
This may be specific to certain stores. My local GW store actually has an amazing amount of inventory -- easily 10 times more GW models than any local independent, and most popular plastic kits for 40k or AoS. I don't think they have *any* finecast anymore, and they don't have very many of the web-exclusive items (there may be a couple). Every wall has shelves, and every shelf is packed to crammed to capacity with stock. I also can't recall the last time I was there when there were fewer than 2 employees; I think I've seen 3. So successful stores get more shelf stuff, unsuccessful stores get less, I would guess.
Ironically, for Finecast kits, getting a bad kit, from GW or another vendor, is actually not a terrible thing. Email GW a picture of it, and they'll FedEx you a brand new model -- the whole thing!
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AllSeeingSkink wrote: Maybe it's just local bias because in the month of the Eldar release I literally saw 2 people walk in to my local GW and walk out with a pile of jet bikes and a Wraithknight or two
The jetbikes sold out on GW's website for quite a while, which is why I'm surprised they didn't pass the muster to make top 28. Then again, maybe GW didn't make enough, which is why they didn't make top 28
The problem is the same all the shops I visit, that are in Reading, Windsor, Oxford, Maidenhead, Kingston, and Chiswick. (I went to Basingstoke on Tuesday but it was shut.)
Taken together these shops serve a population of at least a couple of million people in west London and south-east England, including two major universities.
They all seem to carry the same specific range of stock, which I presume is what GW consider the basics of each army's range. For example, out of Seraphon all of them have the Skink Star Seer clamshell pack but none of the other Lizard Men personalities.
They are all relatively small shops, which presumably is the basic problem. No doubt GW also are economising on the amount of inventory they have to carry.
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