They are listing them as a part of their advent calendar in the Warhammer app. So far we're at 20. Sadly we don't know if it's by volume or revenue. Probably revenue when you consider the big, expensive kits in there.

1. Smaug
2. Knight Warden
3. Skitarii Rangers/Vanguard
4. Space Marines Tactical Squad
5. Tyranid Swarm
6. Blood Angels Tactical Squad
7. Bloodthirster
8. Cadian Defense Force
9. Admech Ironstrider/Dragoon
10. Admech Onager Dunecrawler
11. Drop Pod
12. Necron Battleforce
13. Harlequin Troupe
14. AdMech Sicarians
15. Toxicrene/Maleceptor
16. Zoanthropes/Venomthropes
17. Tyrannocyte
18. Chaos Space Marines
19. Harlequin Starweaver/Voidweaver
20. Mortarchs
21. Nagash
22. Space Marine Devastator Squad
23. Tau Stormsurge
24. Militarum Tempestus Scions
25. Land Raider Crusader
26. Glottkin
27. Baneblade
28. Blight Kings

Probably the imperial knight kit on one again!

Found a earlier discussion of them that stopped getting updated but it has what you're missing.

You're missing:

27. Baneblade
28. Blight Knights

Devastator squads? For real?

I love the Land raider one becuase they used the wrong land raider. They said Crusader, but they put a Godhammer in the picture.

 Shandara wrote:
Devastator squads? For real?

Probably the need for GravCannons for Skyhammer

 Tactical_Spam wrote:
I love the Land raider one becuase they used the wrong land raider. They said Crusader, but they put a Godhammer in the picture.

Psst, it's called a Phobos. Godhammer is the designation for it's twin-linked lascannons. Pedant-mode off.

 Tactical_Spam wrote:
I love the Land raider one becuase they used the wrong land raider. They said Crusader, but they put a Godhammer in the picture.

They hire for attitude, not visual acuity or pattern recognition!

 Shandara wrote:
Devastator squads? For real?

It's based upon sales.

For something like two to three weeks straight after their release, Devastators were out of stock on the webstore.

How is this related to news and rumours ?

Seriously there are a lot of non N&R post these days, GW "promo", GW " best sellers, wishlistings, ect ...

 warboss wrote:

 Tactical_Spam wrote:
I love the Land raider one becuase they used the wrong land raider. They said Crusader, but they put a Godhammer in the picture.

They hire for attitude, not visual acuity or pattern recognition!

I get than impression when I look at the photography in the Space Marine book. If you look at the Techmarine dataslate (where his point cost is an everything) you'll notice that, in the picture above, someone forgot to photoshop the translucent blocks that the servitors were standing on. Bright green and yellow doesn't exactly mix with the urban background

eflix29 wrote:
How is this related to news and rumours ?

Seriously there are a lot of non N&R post these days, GW "promo", GW " best sellers, wishlistings, ect ...

Erm... it's literally news about GWs miniature sales?

I'm going to say/agree that #1 is the Imperial Knight Titan.

 Mymearan wrote:

eflix29 wrote:
How is this related to news and rumours ?

Seriously there are a lot of non N&R post these days, GW "promo", GW " best sellers, wishlistings, ect ...

Erm... it's literally news about GWs miniature sales?

and a rare chance to see if the 'new shiney' really does overwhelm the 'useful in the game' factor for the minis too

do we see any AoS stuff (except the starter) ?

do we see any legacy fantasy stuff ?

are any of the older 40K kits still selling well (or is it only ebay re-sellers that make money from them)?


getting a glimpse of this info helps us to speculate over what GW should do next (and the might even do it too with their brand new attitude)

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:


do we see any AoS stuff (except the starter) ?

do we see any legacy fantasy stuff ?

This is what I'm going to find interesting. Of course, since we don't actually have access to GW's definition of "most popular" or their raw numbers, it could all be easily massaged. But surely, they can't not throw a bunch of AoS in the top ten, right? What would it say about their new game if little of it makes their own internal poll?

-

I bought the Glottkin. And the Blight Knights in the big Nurgle box set. But that's it. Couple crusaders years ago, before the price went pants-on-head.

 timetowaste85 wrote:
I bought the Glottkin. And the Blight Knights in the big Nurgle box set. But that's it. Couple crusaders years ago, before the price went pants-on-head.

$50 Land Raiders were awesome...

Chaos space marines at 18... Can't believe that ugly old kit is still selling!

I wonder how high up the Imperial Knight kit will be this year round.

Nice ranking if based on sales.
I'm eager to see what items become top three.
Tactical squad, Imperial Knight, and whatnot.

 Mymearan wrote:
Chaos space marines at 18... Can't believe that ugly old kit is still selling!

It is entirely possible GW are just BSing us

 Mymearan wrote:
Chaos space marines at 18... Can't believe that ugly old kit is still selling!

It's pretty much one of the best kits still out there. It's Chaos but without being on pants on head slowed mutation.

Good to see the Harlequins have an entry,

hopefully this will help more nostalgia focused releases in the future

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
Good to see the Harlequins have an entry,

hopefully this will help more nostalgia focused releases in the future

No adeptus mech yet. There were what about 10 kits between the two 'codexes'? I wonder if they'll all place. Or any?

I wonder if any Age of Sigmar or fantasy (barring End Times) will place?

-

I'm guessing Tac Squad, Knight and Skitarii for top 3. Eldar Jetbikes in top 5, maybe Wraithknight too. Harlequin Troupe top 10. Rhino/Razorback/Drop Pod too. A couple of the Tau kits.

I think it's unlikely but as they have some of the big End Time models on the list we might still see something like Skarbrand.

I should think the AoS starter set will do pretty well in the rankings. I reckon it must have sold well due to the shiney newness and the value proposition of the figures.

-

They're listing most popular kits so starter sets won't be on there.

 Mymearan wrote:
Chaos space marines at 18... Can't believe that ugly old kit is still selling!

Makes you wonder, doesn't it? An ugly kit, still one of their best sellers, bringing in a good profit margin since development costs have long since been paid for. A core choice from a codex that is pretty consistently touted as one of the worst codexes in the game. So, why sink all those resources into creating a new CSM kit when the old one still makes bank?

 the_Armyman wrote:

 Mymearan wrote:
Chaos space marines at 18... Can't believe that ugly old kit is still selling!

Makes you wonder, doesn't it? An ugly kit, still one of their best sellers, bringing in a good profit margin since development costs have long since been paid for. A core choice from a codex that is pretty consistently touted as one of the worst codexes in the game. So, why sink all those resources into creating a new CSM kit when the old one still makes bank?

Well, they re-cut the vanilla tactical, assault, and devastator kits all fairly recently. None of those really needed it.

While the CSM might get a lot of flack, they are one of the armies in the DV starter box, and one of the iconic forces in the universe. If you just split a DV with a friend, were just starting out (so not overly concerned/aware of tournament ranking/tiers/etc) picking up another box of marines seems a good way to expand your army.

If the starter set was still orcs as the opposing force, I think CSM might not have made the list. But there is a lot of leverage from new players expanding the DV box to be had.

 Nevelon wrote:

 the_Armyman wrote:

 Mymearan wrote:
Chaos space marines at 18... Can't believe that ugly old kit is still selling!

Makes you wonder, doesn't it? An ugly kit, still one of their best sellers, bringing in a good profit margin since development costs have long since been paid for. A core choice from a codex that is pretty consistently touted as one of the worst codexes in the game. So, why sink all those resources into creating a new CSM kit when the old one still makes bank?

Well, they re-cut the vanilla tactical, assault, and devastator kits all fairly recently. None of those really needed it.

While the CSM might get a lot of flack, they are one of the armies in the DV starter box, and one of the iconic forces in the universe. If you just split a DV with a friend, were just starting out (so not overly concerned/aware of tournament ranking/tiers/etc) picking up another box of marines seems a good way to expand your army.

If the starter set was still orcs as the opposing force, I think CSM might not have made the list. But there is a lot of leverage from new players expanding the DV box to be had.

I think you're missing my point. I wasn't confused as to why they were on the list. When people ask why CSM still have an old plastic kit, the answer is pretty clear: why would GW go through the effort of redesigning/recutting a kit that makes them money and doesn't require Studio resources?

 Nevelon wrote:

Well, they re-cut the vanilla tactical, assault, and devastator kits all fairly recently. None of those really needed it.

While the CSM might get a lot of flack, they are one of the armies in the DV starter box, and one of the iconic forces in the universe. If you just split a DV with a friend, were just starting out (so not overly concerned/aware of tournament ranking/tiers/etc) picking up another box of marines seems a good way to expand your army.

If the starter set was still orcs as the opposing force, I think CSM might not have made the list. But there is a lot of leverage from new players expanding the DV box to be had.

I disagree on the tactical and devastator kits -- they're really popular kits, and the new sculpts are infinitely superior to the old ones. Just compare a pair of legs from 2005 with 2014; there's a world a difference. In addition, there are good game reasons too, mostly because of grav weapons. Grav cannons are a big add for Space Marines, and definitely belong in the devastator box.

The assault marines, less so, because they kind of suck in the game anyhow And, there are vanguard vets, where you can get a lot of nice jump pack parts out of. But still, it's very nice to complete the core grunts in new, post 2009 tungsten-carbide tooled plastic molds.

Frankly, I think EVERY kit pre-2009 that people actually want to buy in any volume needs to be remade

I'm going to predict the top 5.

5. AdMech Skitarii Rangers (#3)
4. Sanguinary Priest (Nope!)
3. Khorne Bloodthirster (Close on this one, but it's #7)
2. Space Marine Tactical Squad (#4)
1. Imperial Knight Titan (#2)

the_Armyman wrote:I think you're missing my point. I wasn't confused as to why they were on the list. When people ask why CSM still have an old plastic kit, the answer is pretty clear: why would GW go through the effort of redesigning/recutting a kit that makes them money and doesn't require Studio resources?

I’m sure the vanilla tac squad was high on the list before they re-did it, but I see your point.

Talys wrote:I disagree on the tactical and devastator kits -- they're really popular kits, and the new sculpts are infinitely superior to the old ones. Just compare a pair of legs from 2005 with 2014; there's a world a difference. In addition, there are good game reasons too, mostly because of grav weapons. Grav cannons are a big add for Space Marines, and definitely belong in the devastator box.

The assault marines, less so, because they kind of suck in the game anyhow And, there are vanguard vets, where you can get a lot of nice jump pack parts out of. But still, it's very nice to complete the core grunts in new, post 2009 tungsten-carbide tooled plastic molds.

Frankly, I think EVERY kit pre-2009 that people actually want to buy in any volume needs to be remade

I hear you about the old kits. I just put together a marine using legs from the old dev kit and some parts from the new BaC box. World of difference, as you say. Including new weapon options to justify selling kits is a different area then just doing kits because of age. While old, the dev box was certainly serviceable. But by adding new options, they can get old players with “finished” armies to pick up more boxes. I’d rather they revisit older kits then re-do reasonably modern ones. Particularity when the aesthetic of the army has changed.

Wow, Nagash and Starweavers sold better than Space Marine Devastators. Soooooo....

Did Space Marine Assault Squad not make the list, or did it actually do better than #18?

For 2015... I agree, the starter sets will definitely be there. Will Age of Sigmar beat out Dark Vengeance? I think so?

I think the Bloodthirster will do well. Ghostkeel, too. And of course, the usual suspects like Imperial Knight.

It's actually baffling to me that they sold nearly as many land raider crusaders as stormsurges I guess a lot more space marine players out there.

 Talys wrote:
Wow, Nagash and Starweavers sold better than Space Marine Devastators. Soooooo....

Did Space Marine Assault Squad not make the list, or did it actually do better than #18?

For 2015... I agree, the starter sets will definitely be there. Will Age of Sigmar beat out Dark Vengeance? I think so?

I think the Bloodthirster will do well. Ghostkeel, too. And of course, the usual suspects like Imperial Knight.

It's actually baffling to me that they sold nearly as many land raider crusaders as stormsurges I guess a lot more space marine players out there.

If you think about what percent of players of an army would buy a kit, anything marine is going to do well. Just more of them out there. Also, they have been selling LRCs all year long. The new Tau toys just have had a month?

The assault marine kit I think might not be on the list. I don’t see it placing well. The unit on the table is lackluster. For the same price, you can get a box of vanguard vets. The VV box is quite good. The one “new” bit to drive box sales is the evicerator. And it’s no grav gun when it comes to “must have” options. Furthermore, it lacks formations to drive sales. Sure, the demi-co has a slot for AMs, but you can swap them out for bikes, speeders, and the like. Not like Necrons and the need for tomb blades.

I think DV will outsell AoS. Partly for the time in service; it’s been on sale all year. And even though AoS is the hot new thing, I don’t think that’s enough to overcome the general panning I’ve seen for it. Could be wrong, time will tell.

If this were sales of 2014 I'd say the Imperial Knight would be close to the top, I'm not sure it's continued to sell well enough to be up in the top 5 now though.

 Nevelon wrote:

If you think about what percent of players of an army would buy a kit, anything marine is going to do well. Just more of them out there. Also, they have been selling LRCs all year long. The new Tau toys just have had a month?

DOH. You are right, of course. Stormsurge hasn't been out long

 Nevelon wrote:
I think DV will outsell AoS. Partly for the time in service; it’s been on sale all year. And even though AoS is the hot new thing, I don’t think that’s enough to overcome the general panning I’ve seen for it. Could be wrong, time will tell.

Sadly, we won't know. Scanning higher up the page, I agree that it's about miniatures (which wouldn't include box sets) :(

 Talys wrote:


Frankly, I think EVERY kit pre-2009 that people actually want to buy in any volume needs to be remade

Apart from anything else, moulds wear out and have to be replaced. When it happens, it is an opportunity to do a new tooling, even if you have the original master models and so on still available.

Some Tyranid stuff on 17 and 16!

 Bottle wrote:
If the Starter Set is allowed it will definitely be there. Probably number 2, with BaC at number 1.

I think you would be correct!


The starters and the knights should rank very highly.

 Mymearan wrote:
Some Tyranid stuff on 17 and 16!

Yeah, color me surprised!!


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I wonder if there will be any Stormcast Eternals models on that list? If so, GW will be very happy.

 Mymearan wrote:
Some Tyranid stuff on 17 and 16!

Wonder if the creaky old Carnifex kit will make the list?

 Sinful Hero wrote:

 Mymearan wrote:
Some Tyranid stuff on 17 and 16!

Wonder if the creaky old Carnifex kit will make the list?

You kidding? That's a great kit, it's just been left behind by spectacle creep.

 Crazy_Carnifex wrote:

 Sinful Hero wrote:

 Mymearan wrote:
Some Tyranid stuff on 17 and 16!

Wonder if the creaky old Carnifex kit will make the list?

You kidding? That's a great kit, it's just been left behind by spectacle creep.

Oh I'm not ragging on it, just noting it's been out a good while. One of my personal favorites. Love all the bits.

Wraithknight and Jetbikes should be top 10 - I actually got the new WK kit after ages of not getting anything!

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
Wraithknight and Jetbikes should be top 10 - I actually got the new WK kit after ages of not getting anything!

I agree on the bikes. (WK as well) The bikes were in a good spot mechanically, as a powerful unit in a top army. Even before they gave them all scatter lasers. I think even the old bikes might have had a spot on the list. But the new bikes are lovely. I think even without the overpowered mechanics and formation that requires 3+ boxes of them they might have had spot. Just on the merits of the models. But when you combine good models and broken rules, I think a top 10 spot is likely.

I’m less fond of the WK. But it also has a lot going for it.

15 is the Toxicrene... Honestly, who would buy this thing enough that it out sold more units than landraiders and devastators

 Tactical_Spam wrote:
15 is the Toxicrene... Honestly, who would buy this thing enough that it out sold more units than landraiders and devastators

It's a fairly decent unit that has a neat profile to it- plus it's a huge bug so it hits all the right spots for Tyranid players.

 Sinful Hero wrote:

 Tactical_Spam wrote:
15 is the Toxicrene... Honestly, who would buy this thing enough that it out sold more units than landraiders and devastators

It's a fairly decent unit that has a neat profile to it- plus it's a huge bug so it hits all the right spots for Tyranid players.

Even for those who aren't

More nids... Hmm. Not much room for Adeptus Mech, Marines and Age of Sigmar left. Something has to give. Hoping it's Age of Sigmar...

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:
More nids... Hmm. Not much room for Adeptus Mech, Marines and Age of Sigmar left. Something has to give. Hoping it's Age of Sigmar...

I don't think there are any new (i.e. not repacks) AoS kits that could qualify for this list, except maybe Archaon, and he was just released. Other that that it's just Stormcast and Khorne, and I really doubt any of those will appear. I would like to hope that some of the fantastic AoS kits, like the Lord Castellant, would appear, but they won't.

-

Admech sicarians on 14! Amazing kit.

Yay!! Admech!!

I bet the Sternguard and Vanguard kits are pretty high. Those kits are just packed with bits.

 Mymearan wrote:
Admech sicarians on 14! Amazing kit.

I would have figured them higher, they're reasonably priced and one of the few units you'd buy in bulk.

Hope they're not the only Ad Mech to make it to the list.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Opps my bad, I thought they were Skitarii, but they're the killer scarecrows. Good, leaves room for the Skitarii later.

Today we have the Harlequin Troupe, another of my favorite kits.

I love the Harlequins . Glad they did well... maybe we will get more next year

Great to see the Troupe there

(and i'll wager we'll see their jetbikes on the list too so hopefully that will ensure something else for them soon)

*waits for people to start saying eldar are OP in this list*

 SilverMK2 wrote:
*waits for people to start saying eldar are OP in this list*

Calling it now: Wraithknights are number 1.

 nullBolt wrote:

 SilverMK2 wrote:
*waits for people to start saying eldar are OP in this list*

Calling it now: Wraithknights are number 1.

The real question is: How many of the top 10 will be big models, versus little guys? Will there be ANY 28mm infantry there?

One way to also look at it is what stuff sold out. Windriders should have done well. I wonder how many Plasma Obliterators they made, since those sold out instantly.

Considering that the WFB8 things were huge items form End Times, it's safe to say the Top 10 will have the big guys for 40k.

I really wish we knew if this was by units or by total sales. I mean did they really sell that many Nagashes or just make a lot of money selling a few?

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:
I really wish we knew if this was by units or by total sales. I mean did they really sell that many Nagashes or just make a lot of money selling a few?

There is no way to verify the data behind this, its possible that this selection is based on some guy in the IT department picking stuff at random.

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:
I really wish we knew if this was by units or by total sales. I mean did they really sell that many Nagashes or just make a lot of money selling a few?

If it's done like the FW best-sellers list, it is surely by revenue rather than by unit.

It defies reason that GW a higher quantity of Warlord Titans and Ta'u nars than Sicaran tanks, Quad Rapiers, and Primarchs I mean, there just can't be that many $2000 Warlords out there. Can there??

The Chapter House case showed how surprisingly low the US sales of Space Marines were.

If the company does really appeal mainly to model collectors, they might easily sell fairly large numbers of big expensive kits, compared to fairly small number of small, cheap kits (e.g. Skinks.)

Also, this is a ranking. They might have sold only 19 of item A, 20 of item B, 21 of C and so on. Obviously the real numbers would be thousands.

It could be that GW are telling the truth when they say most of their stuff is bought for collection/modelling/painting reason and not actual gaming.

Even if you actually game do you also buy stuff that you just like even if you never play with it.

I'll be damned... They do include boxes. #12 is Necron Battleforce.

Is there any indication what this list actually means? Does it just say "most popular", or "best selling" or something like that?

Based on what I've read so far it could be anything from based on sales volume, based on revenue or based on what Fred from accounting likes best.

"Most popular kits"

 Mymearan wrote:
I'll be damned... They do include boxes. #12 is Necron Battleforce.

Decurion actually does sell itself!

So now, we're back to where Age of Sigmar, Dark Vengeance, and Betrayal at Calth sit on the pecking order

On the 11 to go, I'd guess that Bloodthirster, Imperial Knight, Windrider, Wraithknight are almost certainly on the list. Plus 3 starter boxes, and that's 7 out of the last 11. Perhaps Ghostkeel? And there should be more admech love too.

 Mymearan wrote:
"Most popular kits"

So.... that could literally mean damned near anything It could be the most sales, it could be the one that has the most views on the website, it could be the one that is most popular within the GW office itself.

Do we even know if the list is in order?

I'm feeling a bit snarky, so watch when the latest Archaon somehow shows up at number 1, even after being out so short a time, mysteriously beating out Battle of Calth, which hasn't had much time either.

I think the Imperial Knight will snatch away the first place again.

OK, my search-fu is weak. Anyone have a link to last year’s list?

I don't think Archaon will be on the list, as Stormsurge barely made it on.

And even though IK was available all year, my bet is on Calth outselling it. But we'll see soon!!

 Mymearan wrote:
I'll be damned... They do include boxes. #12 is Necron Battleforce.

I guess this means we do stand a good chance of seeing the AoS starter then.

Yeah, well, I can't imagine that there were more Baneblades or Glotkin sold than AoS starter

-

Next up is the Drop Pod!

I'd expect the Skitarii Vanguard/Rangers box to be in the top 10 even if none of the other Admech stuff makes it.

Or is that "hope"...

I'm gonna call the top place as 30mm round bases. We all know it to be true

ZOMG. Drop pods! I love it, lol.

@IGtR= that would be really cool if 30mm bases made the list, since GW doesn't use 30mm bases (just givin' you a hard time in jest... 32mm, bud. As my wife says, every millimeter counts!).

^^ OMG, so many snarky wants to be typed!

 Talys wrote:
ZOMG. Drop pods! I love it, lol.

All those formations to boost sales are working as intended. Rent-a-pods for everyone!

 the_Armyman wrote:

 Talys wrote:
ZOMG. Drop pods! I love it, lol.

All those formations to boost sales are working as intended. Rent-a-pods for everyone!

To be fair, pods were good before formations. And it’s not just the formations that really did it, but the ability to take loose non-DT pods as FA picks.

Also proof that gamers, not just collectors, are driving at least some of these sales. No sane person is going to want to put together multiples of those horrid things, unless for a significant table-top advantage.

(YMMV, I just really hate those things from a modeling POV)

 Nevelon wrote:

 the_Armyman wrote:

 Talys wrote:
ZOMG. Drop pods! I love it, lol.

All those formations to boost sales are working as intended. Rent-a-pods for everyone!

To be fair, pods were good before formations. And it’s not just the formations that really did it, but the ability to take loose non-DT pods as FA picks.

Sure, FA pods boosted sales, but so did Gladius and the Flesh Tearers formation where you could get six FA slots for like a 100 point tax. Every codex that didn't have access to pods rejoiced at their newly discovered ability to DS with little or no scatter.

"Hi I'm Crazy Seth and I WANT YOU to come on down to my used drop pod lot!! I'm a RAGING over wanting to give you a good deal. With the decline of my chapter's numbers I need to clear out all of this excess inventory. That means you are going to get a BLOODY good deal! Are you THIRSTING for a way to scream down at a a thousand miles an hour right on top of those heretic and xeno scum's position with minimal loss of accuracy? Of course you do!!! So come on down to Crazy Seth's drop lot. Buy a used pod and I'll even throw in a dozen eviscerators to go with it!!! They say the Black rage has messed up my ability to think straight so come on down and take advantage of these deals as like my chapter they will not last much longer."


I have to agree with the pods being so popular for gaming. They are a pretty boring model to build, paint and display so I bet most of those sales are for gaming. Especially and any imperial army can get drop pods for cheap. I mean even Sisters get something in this deal...

 Nevelon wrote:

 the_Armyman wrote:

 Talys wrote:
ZOMG. Drop pods! I love it, lol.

All those formations to boost sales are working as intended. Rent-a-pods for everyone!

To be fair, pods were good before formations. And it’s not just the formations that really did it, but the ability to take loose non-DT pods as FA picks.

Also proof that gamers, not just collectors, are driving at least some of these sales. No sane person is going to want to put together multiples of those horrid things, unless for a significant table-top advantage.

(YMMV, I just really hate those things from a modeling POV)

I, too, hate building and painting drop pods. I only have one, and it taught me to hate pods. Good thing I play Dark Angels, who are not known for being a drop pod army.

What's wrong with drop pods? They are a pretty nice model, no? Excellent value for the size, and considering how nicely all the kit fits together, it's a pretty cool vehicle.

My one complaint, which is not fixable, is how the paint rubs off the hinges if you open/close them. I end up building them closed or open (and not closing them).

Onager DUNECRAWLER next!

 Mymearan wrote:
Onager DUNECRAWLER next!

Should have been a tripod.

How do you make a martian army with walkers and not give them a tripod?

 Talys wrote:
What's wrong with drop pods? They are a pretty nice model, no? Excellent value for the size, and considering how nicely all the kit fits together, it's a pretty cool vehicle.

My one complaint, which is not fixable, is how the paint rubs off the hinges if you open/close them. I end up building them closed or open (and not closing them).

It's not really very interesting, though, is it?

I mean, it's basically like a mechanical version of a pandoro cake. Nice to eat, but you don't make five of them the centrepieces of your festive table decoration.

Or maybe an air filter out of a Dyson vacuum cleaner or something.

The old Tyranid Mycetic Spore was a lot more interesting because you could colour them all different ways like a set of particularly ghastly pathology specimens.

Talys wrote:What's wrong with drop pods? They are a pretty nice model, no? Excellent value for the size, and considering how nicely all the kit fits together, it's a pretty cool vehicle.

My one complaint, which is not fixable, is how the paint rubs off the hinges if you open/close them. I end up building them closed or open (and not closing them).

Getting them together is the hard part. You need to line everything up, and it all wants to fly apart. I don’t know if they’ve fixed it, but for the longest time they were miss-assembled on the box art. One of the harnesses was not socketed into the wall correctly. Getting the doors to open/close smoothly is another issue. Requires everything to line up just so, when it’s rough enough getting everything to stay together in the first place.

From a painting POV, there is a lot of finicky detail (harnesses, etc) and flat boring planes (doors) Might be easier with an airbrush, but as a fuzzy stick guy, they were a major PITA.

Looks? OK, they are not bad. Nothing to write home about, or get to the top 28 on it’s visual merits. Value? From a $ to point value they suck, but for the amount of plastic you get, it is a reasonably sized kit for the cash spent. All of the SM transports are like that.

But despite how much I dislike the kit, I own 3. Which is how it’s on this list.

Kid_Kyoto wrote:

 Mymearan wrote:
Onager DUNECRAWLER next!

Should have been a tripod.

How do you make a martian army with walkers and not give them a tripod?

Fully agree here. Lost opportunity.

Thanks to Talys, I'm now aware of this thread. I'm anxious to see all the AOS releases no scope solo headshot the top ten as he apparently expects.

I wouldn't expect any new AoS kits beside the starter to be on this list, but if Archaon released earlier, it might have a chance. I've been quite surprised at the number of people who have picked him up.

I would be very surprised if Archaon showed up on this list.

coldgaming wrote:
I wouldn't expect any new AoS kits beside the starter to be on this list, but if Archaon released earlier, it might have a chance. I've been quite surprised at the number of people who have picked him up.

People buying Archaon without Slaanesh. It's like they hate life.

More ad mech, dragoon this time!

I did notice the "best sellers" list on the GW site doesn't match what's in this "most popular" list.

I call bullcrap on #9.

 jer155 wrote:
I call bullcrap on #9.

You call "bullcrap" on it? Meaning they're lying? Why would they? Besides, the Dragoon is one of the coolest kits they released this year, plus it was one of the first Admech releases. I could see it even higher no problem.

 Mymearan wrote:

 jer155 wrote:
I call bullcrap on #9.

You call "bullcrap" on it? Meaning they're lying? Why would they? Besides, the Dragoon is one of the coolest kits they released this year, plus it was one of the first Admech releases. I could see it even higher no problem.

It's a $50 30 point walker...

Fifty dollars!

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:

 Mymearan wrote:

 jer155 wrote:
I call bullcrap on #9.

You call "bullcrap" on it? Meaning they're lying? Why would they? Besides, the Dragoon is one of the coolest kits they released this year, plus it was one of the first Admech releases. I could see it even higher no problem.

It's a $50 30 point walker...

Fifty dollars!

Obviously people don't care that much... I know my local Admech player bought three. A good model will sell.

If I were going to question anything, it would be the nid units on the list and potentially AOS. Luckily, there is no AOS (yet) so no need there. I don't play nids (anymore) but with all the flak that the army gets as boring/useless/underpowered/etc, they have as many entries on the list as space marines so far.

 warboss wrote:
If I were going to question anything, it would be the nid units on the list and potentially AOS. Luckily, there is no AOS (yet) so no need there. I don't play nids (anymore) but with all the flak that the army gets as boring/useless/underpowered/etc, they have as many entries on the list as space marines so far.

That would only be questionable if you assume that the majority of sales come from people who only buy the best units for their army. In the case of the Tyranids, they got a second release wave, including the long-awaited drop pod, which surely excited the hell out of many Tyranid players. And all units were playable at least, no real stinker boxes.

I'd be surprised if the Zoan/Venomthrope kit was actually 16th in overall sales, it's not a bad kit, but most nid players already would have owned several of them and the rules didn't change when they came out so there was no motivation to buy more.

That and the fact that even though it wasn't a bad kit, it didn't save all that much money compared to the old metal and resin versions. So I wouldn't have expected a bunch of people who previously couldn't afford the metals to run out and buy the new plastics when the new plastics weren't much cheaper.

That mostly leaves it down to new players and old players who for some reason didn't already have a bunch of Zoans and Venoms or are so hyper enthusiast that they'd want to buy even more of them.

But yeah, at this stage I'm not convinced the list we are getting is actually a "highest sales" list.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I'd be surprised if the Zoan/Venomthrope kit was actually 16th in overall sales, it's not a bad kit, but most nid players already would have owned several of them and the rules didn't change when they came out so there was no motivation to buy more.

That and the fact that even though it wasn't a bad kit, it didn't save all that much money compared to the old metal and resin versions. So I wouldn't have expected a bunch of people who previously couldn't afford the metals to run out and buy the new plastics when the new plastics weren't much cheaper.

That mostly leaves it down to new players and old players who for some reason didn't already have a bunch of Zoans and Venoms or are so hyper enthusiast that they'd want to buy even more of them.

But yeah, at this stage I'm not convinced the list we are getting is actually a "highest sales" list.

Venomthropes had really good rules backing them- stick one in a Bastion and nearly your entire army had a cover save.

Plus the kit also makes Doom of Malantai 2.0 which will draw in sales.

You missed a big category - people who replaced their old metal/finecast zoans. I would assume the list is by revenue, I don't see a reason to think otherwise. Our expectations aren't necessarily correct, we already know that.

 Mymearan wrote:
You missed a big category - people who replaced their old metal/finecast zoans..

Who would do such a thing? Those metal Zo's are great!


Jazz hands!

 Mymearan wrote:
You missed a big category - people who replaced their old metal/finecast zoans. I would assume the list is by revenue, I don't see a reason to think otherwise. Our expectations aren't necessarily correct, we already know that.

I expect that the list isn't by revenue but rather units sold. Gw could charge $10k for a special LE mini limited to one copy and it would then be "more popular" by revenue than a $1.00 model that sold 9,000 copies. It's obviously an extreme and absurd example (Gw charging $1.00 for a mini?!?!) but it illustrates the point. If the list is truly ranked by "popularity", unit sales make for a more common sense metric than revenue especially given how similar kits with the same number of midels/sprues can vary in price (like command squad vs sternguard or death company vs assault marines) based on their age.

 warboss wrote:

 Mymearan wrote:
You missed a big category - people who replaced their old metal/finecast zoans. I would assume the list is by revenue, I don't see a reason to think otherwise. Our expectations aren't necessarily correct, we already know that.

I expect that the list isn't by revenue but rather units sold. Gw could charge $10k for a special LE mini limited to one copy and it would then be "more popular" by revenue than a $1.00 model that sold 9,000 copies. It's obviously an extreme and absurd example (Gw charging $1.00 for a mini?!?!) but it illustrates the point. If the list is truly ranked by "popularity", unit sales make for a more common sense metric than revenue especially given how similar kits with the same number of midels/sprues can vary in price (like command squad vs sternguard or death company vs assault marines) based on their age.

We'll see as we near the top of the list, but my gut tells me that I don't think so, because we haven't yet seen Imperial Knight or Wraithknight, two that are probably going to make it. It would be rather shocking if Imperial Knight sold more UNITS than drop pods!

Also, when you look at Forge World Top 10 lists, it's always massively expensive titans at the top. Like, Warlord Titan is #1, and that can't be the best unit seller..... right?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Mymearan wrote:
It's a $50 30 point walker...

Fifty dollars!

Obviously people don't care that much... I know my local Admech player bought three. A good model will sell.

That's a good point but I haven't looked at the forgeworld lists in a very long time. The devil is in the details and the details are how exactly they word the classification of those lists. Also, the really expensive kits only top the lists usually when they're brand new and lots of folks are actually buying a bunch. I don't think FW sells hundreds of each and every kit every month and we've seen IIRC for the warlord certificates with numbers over #100 in the initial release. With the knights getting a modified "new" kit and codex this year, I could see them on that list since drop pods have been around for so long. I've seen alot of armies online (here on dakka as well as youtube) with multiple knights. I'd definitely raise an eyebrow if they outsold something like tactical boxes though.

Rhino has got to be on the list...

I wonder if any other Tau, like ghostkeel or tides show up.

@warboss - Here's the FW top 10 -

http://www.forgeworld.co.uk/en-CA/Top-10

Top spot goes to the GBP1240 Warlord, #2 goes to Ta'unar, at GBP 250. Quad rapiers are #7, and it would just stun me if FW sold more units of $2000 warlords than $50 quad rapiers, since so many space marine players use those as models for Thunderfire Cannon (it's actually cheaper)

But of course, the Christmas GW list could be measured by a different metric than FW's top 10.

@Tsilber - I think Razorbacks. Personally, I would never buy a Rhino kit now. I'd just buy the razorback and not use the extra sprue (or not glue on the top, so it can be both). Rhno is $37.25 is $41.25, and the option is definitely worth $4 IMO.

Thanks for the link. It doesn't look like FW qualifies it any further than "top 10" so it could easily be revenue for them (unlike what the word "popularity" implies).

For how huge and awesome and long-awaited the Warlord Titan is, it very well could have moved more units than the other items.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
For how huge and awesome and long-awaited the Warlord Titan is, it very well could have moved more units than the other items.

Well, Ta'unar too. And all the primarchs.

I can only go by what I've seen, and I have never, ever seen a real Warlord, or known anyone who has bought one. I don't even know anyone who has ever seen one, excluding people who have gone to GWHQ. Man, would I would love to see one though! It's not just a matter of price, either -- I know a guy who has bought ungodly amounts of FW stuff, but he wouldn't buy a Warlord because it's just too big a project for him, and he wouldn't have anywhere to put it.

The number of Sicarans, primarchs, rapiers, though... I see them all the time; they're very common, in my experience.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
For how huge and awesome and long-awaited the Warlord Titan is, it very well could have moved more units than the other items.

No way, if people bought THAT many, they wouldn't have time to cast anything else!

 Talys wrote:
@warboss - Here's the FW top 10 -

http://www.forgeworld.co.uk/en-CA/Top-10

Top spot goes to the GBP1240 Warlord, #2 goes to Ta'unar, at GBP 250. Quad rapiers are #7, and it would just stun me if FW sold more units of $2000 warlords than $50 quad rapiers, since so many space marine players use those as models for Thunderfire Cannon (it's actually cheaper)

But of course, the Christmas GW list could be measured by a different metric than FW's top 10.

@Tsilber - I think Razorbacks. Personally, I would never buy a Rhino kit now. I'd just buy the razorback and not use the extra sprue (or not glue on the top, so it can be both). Rhno is $37.25 is $41.25, and the option is definitely worth $4 IMO.

Oh I agree on the value in a razorback appose to rhino, but with after market twin linked assault cannon some people might opt for rhinos., I picked up 8 rhinos and then bought twin linked assault cannons for $9 each.

Lets just change my post to razorbacks and/or rhinos, lol.

Sure, it could be dollar value, but...

Mymearan wrote:You missed a big category - people who replaced their old metal/finecast zoans..

I meant to include those people under hyper-enthusiasts but I realise now that I worded it incorrectly, my apologies.

Sinful Hero wrote:Venomthropes had really good rules backing them- stick one in a Bastion and nearly your entire army had a cover save.

Yes but those rules existed for, umm, I think a year or so before the new plastics came out. So most people who wanted to exploit that rule had already purchased the old Venoms some time in the past year.

Most 'nid players would have already owned 1 to 3 or more Venoms because of their cover saves before that box ever came out, and the people who couldn't afford the metal and resin versions wouldn't have been won over by the very high price of the new Venom/Zoan kit.

There's definitely reasons why people would buy them, but enough to make it 16th overall compared to the hundreds of other kits GW makes? I very much doubt it.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Talys wrote:@warboss - Here's the FW top 10 -

http://www.forgeworld.co.uk/en-CA/Top-10

Top spot goes to the GBP1240 Warlord, #2 goes to Ta'unar, at GBP 250. Quad rapiers are #7, and it would just stun me if FW sold more units of $2000 warlords than $50 quad rapiers, since so many space marine players use those as models for Thunderfire Cannon (it's actually cheaper)

But of course, the Christmas GW list could be measured by a different metric than FW's top 10.

@Tsilber - I think Razorbacks. Personally, I would never buy a Rhino kit now. I'd just buy the razorback and not use the extra sprue (or not glue on the top, so it can be both). Rhno is $37.25 is $41.25, and the option is definitely worth $4 IMO.

warboss wrote:Thanks for the link. It doesn't look like FW qualifies it any further than "top 10" so it could easily be revenue for them (unlike what the word "popularity" implies).

That's a top 10 Christmas list, not a top 10 sales list. It's just telling you that GW/FW think the best Christmas gift in their line up is the 1240GBP Warlord Titan, it doesn't mean the 1240GBP Titan sold the most units and/or had the most revenue.

I think you people have made some leaps by assuming GW and/or FW are telling you anything to do with their sales numbers Top 10 Christmas list ≠ best sales and "most popular" ≠ best sales except in 1 specific context.

I don't see a reason to doubt that it's a best-seller list, most probably by revenue.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

That's a top 10 Christmas list, not a top 10 sales list. It's just telling you that GW/FW think the best Christmas gift in their line up is the 1240GBP Warlord Titan, it doesn't mean the 1240GBP Titan sold the most units and/or had the most revenue.

I think you people have made some leaps by assuming GW and/or FW are telling you anything to do with their sales numbers Top 10 Christmas list ≠ best sales and "most popular" ≠ best sales except in 1 specific context.

The button says top 10 Christmas list, but the URL is the same one they used before, when it was just the top 10 bestsellers list on the old FW site; and, when you go to the page, it just says top 10 (not favorite Christmas items, or whatever). And, if you recall the old FW site, it was always big models in those top spots too.

I do agree that we have no idea what "most popular" means But I think we can assume on this list that it has something to do with people buying the models, and I'm pretty sure it's based on a formula, rather than GWHQ saying, "hey, Nagash was popular!" But yeah, sure, for all we know, this could be just people adding them to their Christmas wishlist on the website. I don't think so, but it's possible!

 Mymearan wrote:
I don't see a reason to doubt that it's a best-seller list, most probably by revenue.

It also contradicts their best seller list on their website.

The website has 12 40k "best seller" entries, but only 2 of them are on the "most popular" so far, so they can't physically squeeze the "best sellers" off the website in to their "most popular" list.

You could write that off as the fact this list includes AoS and the website doesn't.... but also, the Harlequin Troupe is #13 on the "most popular" list and features on the "best seller" list, yet things that are above it on the "most popular" list (Battleforce, Admech Dragoon and Admech Dunecrawler) are both missing from the website's "best seller" list.

So the lists don't agree with each other, I think that's enough reason to doubt either 1 or both of them.

IMHO GW are just using this as a chance to promote the kits they want to promote rather than actually listing any sort of information on what is selling best.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Talys wrote:
The button says top 10 Christmas list, but the URL is the same one they used before, when it was just the top 10 bestsellers list...

Ah ok, I don't remember that, but I'll believe you

If it's based off revenue it makes sense that the Warlord would be top I guess.

@Skink - I don't think the "Bestsellers" on the GW website is really meaningful. It's kind of like the "Bestsellers" list that GW gives to retailers, and you scratch your head, going, huh? Best that we can guess over here, the way that list is generated, GW takes a bunch of products that sell well for each faction and spread out the love.

So, the Tyranid Swarm box may be a bestselling Tyranid product; the Cadian Defense Force may be a bestselling Guard product, and Stormfang may be a bestselling Space Wolves model.

But there's no way that GW made as much money off of SW Venerable Dreadnought, or sold as many of them, as Eldar Jetbikes or Wraithknights I think my store has sold like, 1 box of Tyranid Swarm since it's been out, lol.

Regarding the top 10 list for FW... it looks like this: http://www.forgeworld.co.uk/en-CA/Top-10 and my browser autocompletes it for me. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the URL has been on my PC way longer than the Christmas season, or even the new website.

 Talys wrote:
@Skink - I don't think the "Bestsellers" on the GW website is really meaningful...

I will be honest, I don't think any of them are meaningful

I'm always wary of best seller lists, especially if they don't come with any numbers attached to them or even how they were calculated. I'm even more wary of anything GW says. You might say what motivation do they have to lie, my response would be what motivation do they have to actually release data on what sells and what doesn't?

I think the GW website bestseller list is BS and I think the list we've been given here is "most popular" where "most popular" does not mean "best seller".

I'd imagine the website best sellers list is probably just a refelction of what the site has sold that day/week/month or whatever (on some sort of rolling basis)

As to most popular who knows (could even be based on what people have put on their Xmas wishlists?)

Yeah I think we can safely disregard the best seller list on the website, but there's no reason to doubt the countdown list. It could be something other than revenue, but that seems the most likely candidate. As for the promotion theory, it really makes no sense. Why would they do an elaborate countdown list, lie about what it represents, and put such a weird mixture of kits on it (CSM for example)? It seems incredibly far-fetched! What does seem plausible, looking at the kits on the list, is that they are some of the best sellers, in some form or other, this year. It has all the obvious ones so far and some that make you go "ah, of course, didn't think about that".

 Mymearan wrote:
Yeah I think we can safely disregard the best seller list on the website, but there's no reason to doubt the countdown list.

....

....

....

I don't even...

 Mymearan wrote:
Yeah I think we can safely disregard the best seller list on the website, but there's no reason to doubt the countdown list. It could be something other than revenue, but that seems the most likely candidate. As for the promotion theory, it really makes no sense. Why would they do an elaborate countdown list, lie about what it represents, and put such a weird mixture of kits on it (CSM for example)? It seems incredibly far-fetched! What does seem plausible, looking at the kits on the list, is that they are some of the best sellers, in some form or other, this year. It has all the obvious ones so far and some that make you go "ah, of course, didn't think about that".

Didn't WD have a 'hall of fame' type column for a while?

It would seem something like that is the place to hype kits they want to sell.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I'd be surprised if the Zoan/Venomthrope kit was actually 16th in overall sales, it's not a bad kit, but most nid players already would have owned several of them and the rules didn't change when they came out so there was no motivation to buy more.

That and the fact that even though it wasn't a bad kit, it didn't save all that much money compared to the old metal and resin versions. So I wouldn't have expected a bunch of people who previously couldn't afford the metals to run out and buy the new plastics when the new plastics weren't much cheaper.

That mostly leaves it down to new players and old players who for some reason didn't already have a bunch of Zoans and Venoms or are so hyper enthusiast that they'd want to buy even more of them.

But yeah, at this stage I'm not convinced the list we are getting is actually a "highest sales" list.

The last metal Zoanthropes and Venomthropes, the ones that were then converted to Finecast, were £10 each on release, so actually the new plastic ones are 50% more expensive.

In my area, I did see an uptick of nids after Deathstorm.

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
I'd imagine the website best sellers list is probably just a refelction of what the site has sold that day/week/month or whatever (on some sort of rolling basis)

As to most popular who knows (could even be based on what people have put on their Xmas wishlists?)

I believe the best sellers list only just appeared recently on the website.

Goodness knows what criteria they are using.... I think the criteria for both lists probably isn't "best selling" and rather "a list of stuff Fred from IT decided to put up there".

 Thud wrote:


....

....

....

I don't even...

Post-sniping is very annoying, please respond to all the relevant parts of the post, with an actual argument, or don't.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:


Didn't WD have a 'hall of fame' type column for a while?

It would seem something like that is the place to hype kits they want to sell.

Haven't seen it, but it seems a prime opportunity for some random hype, yep! Which types of kits did they have? New ones, old ones?

 Mymearan wrote:

 Thud wrote:


....

....

....

I don't even...

Post-sniping is very annoying, please respond to all the relevant parts of the post, with an actual argument, or don't.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:


Didn't WD have a 'hall of fame' type column for a while?

It would seem something like that is the place to hype kits they want to sell.

Haven't seen it, but it seems a prime opportunity for some random hype, yep! Which types of kits did they have? New ones, old ones?

People on the design team would pick their favourite mini from the past and tell us what they liked about it and then the original designer of the mini would say what inspired him/her to sculpt it. It featured mini from all parts of the citadel range so it wasn't just hyping recent designs, the one I'm looking at now is Marius Leitdorf from The Empire.

Oh, that feature. Yeah I loved that, one of the better features of recent WD. They always chose some great minis to highlight and it was one of the very few places where sculptors got to talk about their work.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Here we go, next up is CADIAN DEFENSE FORCE. Great box with savings.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Checked back a few spots, it is "top-selling" after all. My guess is still by revenue.

Holy crap. Really? I would have never guessed Cadian Defence Force was really a top selling box. I guess that means that tlthe Nid box must make it too. Wowsers!

 Talys wrote:
Holy crap. Really? I would have never guessed Cadian Defence Force was really a top selling box. I guess that means that tlthe Nid box must make it too. Wowsers!

So what does that say about modellers/painters v gamers? as by all accounts the Astra Militarum and Tyranid books are atrociously poor and aren't the Admech and Harlequin books below par come to that. This is an interesting list and a nice insight into customers buying habits even though we can only speculate what side of the hobby fence they are.

The Tyranid box is pretty good. However I bought mine and most of my new Tyranid stuff last year.

Seriqolm wrote:

 Talys wrote:
Holy crap. Really? I would have never guessed Cadian Defence Force was really a top selling box. I guess that means that tlthe Nid box must make it too. Wowsers!

So what does that say about modellers/painters v gamers? as by all accounts the Astra Militarum and Tyranid books are atrociously poor and aren't the Admech and Harlequin books below par come to that. This is an interesting list and a nice insight into customers buying habits even though we can only speculate what side of the hobby fence they are.

The IG book blows chunks, though it's a little better with the recent formations. You get in the box set: 1 chimera, 1 russ, 1 heavy weapon squad, 1 command squad and 20 grunts (Cadians).

Modellers vs Gamers? This is not a set for the "release window modeler" -- it's all old stuff. I guess that's why I'm so surprised. I guess it could be for the army-building modeler, who just wants MOAR GUARD. In gaming terms, if you want to play Guard, it's a good set, because everything's useful, and you can get it with a 25%-ish discount from an independent. But like, that's a big if.

Tyranids? God only knows. I have a buddy who loves them but cries every time he cracks opens the codex.

On the bright side, you could always play Guard vs Nids!! Throw in some Blood Angels and Dark Eldar, and you have a party going on.

Seriqolm wrote:

 Talys wrote:
Holy crap. Really? I would have never guessed Cadian Defence Force was really a top selling box. I guess that means that tlthe Nid box must make it too. Wowsers!

So what does that say about modellers/painters v gamers? as by all accounts the Astra Militarum and Tyranid books are atrociously poor and aren't the Admech and Harlequin books below par come to that. This is an interesting list and a nice insight into customers buying habits even though we can only speculate what side of the hobby fence they are.

Tyranid isn't the worst codex- it's just there aren't too many different "competitive" units. I'd say it doesn't really tell you much as modelers vs gamers are concerned. Most folks will try to force their army into a competitive environment as best they can. The folks who buy/sell/buy/sell different armies to keep a competitive edge are the minority in my experience.

There's a hint of more tanks! It says, "Remember what we said about tanks? We love tanks. It makes up [sic] ever so happy that you love tanks too. Hopefully, there will be more tanks in the rest of our countdown..."

So, like, if the Bestsellers list is actually representative of best selling products, the items not yet listed are:

40k: Tactical, Knight Warden, BA Tactical, Tyranid Swarm, Bloodthirster, Admech Rangers, Calth, Stormfang, SW Venerable Dreadnought.

Sigmar: AoS Starter, Archaon, Varanguard, Carnosaur, Celestant-Prime, Blood Warriors, Treelord, Prosecutors, Retributors, Dryads

But there are only 7 spots left.

I would guess the ones that don't make the cut in 40k will be Stormfang, and Ven Dred for sure. On the AoS side, Archaon and Varanguard are too new, for sure (they probably make the online list because they are marked best selling based on some type of weighing system that favors the short term, or at least release window; otherwise, new models would have a really hard time being a bestseller versus models that are highly relevant and have sold for a long time). I can't imagine the Carnosaur was one of GW's 7 best selling models across the whole year, but I could imagine it selling well during the Seraphon focus

Who knows what will make the final cut, but my guess is...

Imperial Knight, Betrayal at Calth, and Age of Sigmar Starter for sure. AdMech Rangers and Bloodthirster, almost for sure, SM Tacticals have a pretty good shot. BA Tacticals, maybe. Treeman, a long shot.

But what tanks do they speak of? I'm surprised no Kataphron. And I'm really surprised no Eldar -- Windriders sold out, after all. And I guess no Dark Vengeance.

What's your guess for the remaining spots?

 Talys wrote:
I would guess the ones that don't make the cut in 40k will be Stormfang, and Ven Dred for sure.

It wouldn't surprise me if those are up there, I don't know what it's like these days but 5 years ago there were as many SW players as there were Eldar players (based off codex sales from the Chapterhouse case). How many of them stuck around? I dunno. But a lot of SW players bought multiple Dreads and Stormwolf/fangs when they came out

@Skink - I agree, but that was 2014. I'd just be surprised if there was enough momentum to keep it up in the *top 7* of 2015. Especially, with 3 of the spots almost certainly taken by AoS, Calth, and Imperial Knight, and some kits that are probably really popular like Space Marine Tacticals and AdMech Rangers.

Still, I see the buying patterns in my local area, and I'm no doubt influenced by that bias; for all I know, Stormwolf/fangs are super popular in 60% of the world.

My guess is that this list has no real basis.

 Talys wrote:
@Skink - I agree, but that was 2014. I'd just be surprised if there was enough momentum to keep it up in the *top 7* of 2015. Especially, with 3 of the spots almost certainly taken by AoS, Calth, and Imperial Knight, and some kits that are probably really popular like Space Marine Tacticals and AdMech Rangers.

Still, I see the buying patterns in my local area, and I'm no doubt influenced by that bias; for all I know, Stormwolf/fangs are super popular in 60% of the world.

I believe the Zoans and Venoms were a 2014 release and I've stated earlier why I wouldn't have expected them in the top 20 at all. So I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if they SW stuff manages to squeeze in.

Again, I don't know what it's like now, it might have been people bandwagon jumping on SW's back in 5th, but the 5th SW codex actually sold as much as the 5th vanilla codex, so there's likely to be a whole heap of SW players out there.

That and I'm still not convinced GW aren't lying to us with this list but that's another matter.

If you've seen the cover for White Dwarf 100 you'll know #1 so I will not spoil it but I'm with you Talys.

AoS starter, BaC, Bloodthirster (usable in both games), Admech Rangers, Tactical Marines, Imperial Knight.

Being a Space Wolf player and owning a Stormfang I'm not sure that'll make it though.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 nullBolt wrote:
My guess is that this list has no real basis.

If that was true the list would be littered with AoS Stormcast and Khorne don't you think?

Seriqolm wrote:
If that was true the list would be littered with AoS Stormcast and Khorne don't you think?

BaC and the AoS starter will probably be 1 and 2 respectively.

I haven't seen the cover of #100 yet. The suspense!!! But I think that was the "Favorite" model, no? like reader's votes, rather than best-selling.

Imperial Knight could be in any of the top 3 spots too, since there are a lot of guys out there buying multiple knights.

And, OT, but... MERRY CHRISTMAS everybody!!

 nullBolt wrote:

Seriqolm wrote:
If that was true the list would be littered with AoS Stormcast and Khorne don't you think?

BaC and the AoS starter will probably be 1 and 2 respectively.

Which is probably correct as they are both big sellers for GW.

Ooooo. Bloodthirster is #7!!

Assuming AoS Starter, Calth, and Imperial Knight make the top 6, that only leaves 3 more spots

Wow, Blood Angels Tacticals #6. I guess I'm not the only crazy person who keeps buying Blood Angels models!

 Talys wrote:
Wow, Blood Angels Tacticals #6. I guess I'm not the only crazy person who keeps buying Blood Angels models!

Shhh shhh, pay no attention to the men in the white coats...

-

 Bottle wrote:
Interesting that (presumably) the Skitarii Rangers will be one of the remaining spots meaning the ENTIRE Skitarii range is there...

...and so far not one of the Cult Mechanicus sets has made it.

They were released a good deal afterward yes? Could simply be the effect of being for sale for a considerably shorter amount of time.

 Bottle wrote:
Interesting that (presumably) the Skitarii Rangers will be one of the remaining spots meaning the ENTIRE Skitarii range is there...

...and so far not one of the Cult Mechanicus sets has made it.

I was thinking the same thing. Barring the Techpriest, which you only need one of, the Cult models are pretty lackluster when compared to the Skitarii range. Electro-priests are just terribad rules-wise, and the Kastelans are inferior copies of FW's Castellax. Unless they're running a full War Convocation, most people just run allied Kataphrons with a Dominus.

Keep in mind that the Cult has only 3 kits and 1 hero clamshell... kastellan (which also contains the datasmith model), kataphron, electropriest, and then the solo dominus.

I don't think any single clamshell is ever going to make a top seller -- if Space marine Librarian couldn't do it, none of them can. Electropriests are nice models, but the rules blow. The Kastelans have good rules, but the models blow. I like the Kataphron, but I wouldn't invest in a new army that was that limited... I mean, I bought all the models, but just 1 of each, for the model, not to play the faction.

What would have made all the difference in the world for the Cult would be one more 50mm base elite (or a FA like a bike), more attractive rules, and a slightly less dorky kastelan. Or, screw the kastelan and make an expensive, big size model like the FW automaton and call it a centerpiece.

-

So with only 5 spots left, if we have AoS Starter, Calth, Imperial Knight and Rangers, I wonder what's in the 5th spot? Probably not DV, since it's not on the Bestsellers list. Space marine Tacticals?

@Bottle - well, the Kataphron might have done better. But if they released it as one big book, the electropriests and kastelans, I think, would have still been poor performers (bad rules, goofy models).

The Cult aren't a waste for GW though. It's almost certain that there will be more mechanicus releases now, with their performance, If they come up with great rules for Electropriests the next go-around (or some great formation requiring them), they'll fly off the shelf, as there's nothing wrong with the model.

IMO, the next rules refresh, they'll do exactly what you suggest, and combine the two factions. I think "everyone" wants that anyhow. At least, I've never seen anyone either IRL or online who's made a case for them being in separate books.

 Talys wrote:
So with only 5 spots left, if we have AoS Starter, Calth, Imperial Knight and Rangers, I wonder what's in the 5th spot? Probably not DV, since it's not on the Bestsellers list. Space marine Tacticals?

Was the sprue revamp that added grab bits 2015 or late 2014? It's such an important core kit for the most popular faction and more and got both new bits and new ridiculous rules (the gladius/demi co) that I could easily see it there.

-

If we set the final 5 to IK, Tacticals, Calth, Sigmar, and rangers, that leaves it with...

Model kits with bases up to 32mm: 7
(Tactical, BA Tac, Troupe, Rangers, CSM, Scions, Devastator)

Non-centerpiece model kits with bases larger than 32mm: 9
(Dragoon, Dunecrawler, Sicarians, Venomthrope, Tyrannocyte, Starweaver, Mortarch, Blight Kings, LRC)

Centerpiece and Very Large Models: 7
(IK, Bloodthirster, Toxicrene, Nagash, Stormsurge, Glottkin, Baneblade)

Box Sets: 4
(Calth, Sigmar, Necron, Cadian)


@Bottle - you're thinking Judicators, I think? I don't think so, but it's possible It's also possible that Age of Sigmar Starter Set didn't make the cut. But I kinda doubt GW sold more Glottkin sets than Sigmar. The other thing I haven't figured out is the cryptic message that there might be more tanks in the top models.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
#5: TYRANID SWARM!!

ZOMG. I would never have guessed. Shows you what I know, lol.

-

I know!! Could it be that AoS doesn't make the list?! Or Betrayal at Calth?!?!

I find either really hard to believe, but hey, Tyranid Swarm is #5 so, like, anything is possible.

I share your guesses for the top 4, though I will guess (from #4 to #1) Rangers, AoS, Calth, Knight.

IK is just so popular, and there are so many multiple purchases.

Thanks for keeping this updated Mymearan!

I really doubt AOS will be on this series. It's just not a popular game by any means; people didn't want Fantasy Marines vs. (more) Khorne. All of the Fantasy releases that have been on here so far were part of the WHFB End Times series, and most share some ubiquity with 40k (daemons are easy enough to convert for one game or the other, so sales will be undoubtedly be higher).

I'm guessing the Knight, Betrayal at Calth, maybe Skitarii Rangers (would seem strange if this didn't beat out the other AM releases), and some other generic 40k faction release (like the Tyranid swarm for instance!) to finish off the remainder.

EDIT: oh, and the generic Space Marine tactical squad! If that hasn't popped up by now, then it really should be in the top 4 (I doubt the Blood Angels version of it is winning out!)

-

@accolade - tyranid swarm already hit #5 I think either Space Marine Tactical Squad or Age of Sigmar will have to go (since I it makes no sense that fewer rangers sold than the other kits for the faction, lol).

I'm with Bottle though, and it's rather puzzling -- did AoS sell LESS than Glotkin, lol? That would be baffling!

Regarding Dark Vengeance, this is actually not hard to believe at all, as the current Dark Vengeance is almost identical to the old one (there's the one chaos model added and the 7e rulebook). I almost didn't buy it last year! In any case, it's not on the 40k bestseller list online, so I think it's out.

Bottle wrote:@accolade do you really think GW sold more Glotkins this year than AoS starter sets? I find it hard to believe as the starter sets have always been big sellers.

Actually on that note, does the lack of Dark Vengence mean more Glotkins were sold than DV kits? Seems slightly worrying lol...

The AOS starter was a decent deal, and the miniatures are a good quality, but AOS in general is not a popular game. You can buy the starter game for about half the original price on Amazon. The starter represented the doom of a previous game, and it came with a lot of baggage something like a new edition does not.

I could have seen the AOS starter on this list, but I really can't see it being in the top 4. I could of course be wrong, but it would be very surprising for it to beat out most of these things. There's still Imperial Knights, the Dark Vengeance boxset (as you mentioned), a wealth of Space Marine kits, Betrayal at Calth, the remaining Skitarii releases, plus all of the starter army sets (like the Tyranids that just came in #5).

Talys wrote:@accolade - tyranid swarm already hit #5 I think either Space Marine Tactical Squad or Age of Sigmar will have to go (since I it makes no sense that fewer rangers sold than the other kits for the faction, lol).

I'm with Bottle though, and it's rather puzzling -- did AoS sell LESS than Glotkin, lol? That would be baffling!

Regarding Dark Vengeance, this is actually not hard to believe at all, as the current Dark Vengeance is almost identical to the old one (there's the one chaos model added and the 7e rulebook). I almost didn't buy it last year! In any case, it's not on the 40k bestseller list online, so I think it's out.

Yeah I saw that Talys that's why I mentioned the swarm.

Glottkin has the ability to sub in for a GUO, plus he was part of the earlier sales for the End Times, when there was a big boost of excitement still remaining around WHFB (remember when stores were saying they couldn't keep End Times stuff on the shelves?). People were still excited to see what was going to happen with WHFB. When they found out the game was being discontinued and being replaced with Fantasy Space Marines...well, I don't think it was popular with a significant portion of the customer base.

I can see Dark Vengeance not being in the list for the reasons you cited, but I think it's something that's hawked at newbies so much that its sales remain high. Time will tell with the next four days!

Incidentally, off topic, but I think with the new "Start Collecting Now!" battle boxes, Dark Vengeance post 2016 sales will plummet.

I would expect the list to be biased toward things released at the start of the year.

It also depends what they are calling "2015". In financial statements, they often take from the start of Dec 2014 to the start of Dec 2015.... in which case Blood Angels were released right at the start of their year, so it doesn't surprise me that BA Tacticals are near the top of the list, they would be the only thing in the list that includes both the initial release/impulse buys + a full 12 months of "regular" sales.

Same with the Harlequins, Admech stuff. Sales SHOULD be biased toward them since they came out at the start of the year.

The surprising things are stuff like Zoans/venoms that came out toward the end of last year, but then I guess if they are reporting 2015 as being from Dec to Dec, maybe they are catching the 'nid release.

Actually, that would make the list make a bit more sense, if it's counted from the nid release last year up until early Dec this year, it would explain why all 3 of those nid kits + the swarm are on the list, as I'd be very surprised if 'nids were actually THAT popular to wiggle their way in without the list being biased toward them due to the release schedule.

It also depends what they are calling "2015".

I've been wondering that as well, clearly they are not including most of this December. But that might also mean Calth will not be on? It came out mid November, depending on what 2015 means it may not get in.

Personally I was surprised to see the Tau stormsurge on the list. It literally just came out as this thing started getting updated and already sold well enough to be one of their most popular models. Kinda hoping more Tau stuff makes it towards the top but I doubt it.

 Sidstyler wrote:
Personally I was surprised to see the Tau stormsurge on the list. It literally just came out as this thing started getting updated and already sold well enough to be one of their most popular models. Kinda hoping more Tau stuff makes it towards the top but I doubt it.

I was thinking the same thing, it's only been 3 or 4 months I think?

If GW are using a reasonably large interpretation of "2015" which includes the last few months of 2014, then it would explain a bit better all the End Times stuff in the list, as I found once the End Times ended most people went on a purchasing hiatus of WHFB stuff (except people who were worried it was the end and purchased stuff to finish off their armies).

I think it came out in October so yeah, about 3 months I guess. Like I said though it feels like it practically just came out, so I think the fact that it's on the list at all is impressive. Especially with it being so expensive.

Well it's likely that the list is based off revenue rather than units sold, hence why the Tyranid Swam would be so high up.

To speak to less DV sales I personally bought Stormklaw to get my 7ed rule book as I play Orks. There was also Deathstorm before that that had the 7ed rulebook for Blood Angles and Tyranid players. Coupled with the fact that many people (including myself) picked up DV for 6th and didn't want another could cause sales to be reduced for this year.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I would expect the list to be biased toward things released at the start of the year.

It also depends what they are calling "2015". In financial statements, they often take from the start of Dec 2014 to the start of Dec 2015.... in which case Blood Angels were released right at the start of their year, so it doesn't surprise me that BA Tacticals are near the top of the list, they would be the only thing in the list that includes both the initial release/impulse buys + a full 12 months of "regular" sales.

Same with the Harlequins, Admech stuff. Sales SHOULD be biased toward them since they came out at the start of the year.

The surprising things are stuff like Zoans/venoms that came out toward the end of last year, but then I guess if they are reporting 2015 as being from Dec to Dec, maybe they are catching the 'nid release.

Actually, that would make the list make a bit more sense, if it's counted from the nid release last year up until early Dec this year, it would explain why all 3 of those nid kits + the swarm are on the list, as I'd be very surprised if 'nids were actually THAT popular to wiggle their way in without the list being biased toward them due to the release schedule.

Very very good point.

So the definition of 'popular' 'best selling' and '2015' all might not be what we'd expect.

Tac Marines!

 Mymearan wrote:
Tac Marines!

I bought some a few weeks ago that was probably got them at least one place up the list

Woot!

So 3 spots left. Rangers, Calth, Sigmar, and Imperial Knight.

Which one doesn't make the cut? Which one is on top?

I think IK is safe. AoS could be in jeopardy. Is it possible that Calth doesn't make it (possible, as it is a late year release)? Maybe... they didn't sell as many rangers as we thought?! But I think Rangers are safe because they're on the Bestseller list, while the other Skitarii releases are not. But AoS Starter making less money than Mortarchs would be pretty surprising to me too.

Then again, with my terrible skills of prognostication thus far, it could even be Imperial Knight that doesn't make the cut

The suspense!! Who will get voted off island? Survivor, GW edition.

 Mymearan wrote:
Tac Marines!

Does anyone still think that GW's prices are due to the cost of developing and producing new models?

-

If it's fiscal year then BaC may have missed the time frame.

But also do we know for certain starter sets are included? Dark Vengence is not on the list and do we really think they sold more Cadian Defense Forces than Dark Vengence boxes?

Also isn't the Cadian Def Force web only? If so that could mean "Best Sellers of 2015" actually means "Most Revenue Generating Web Sale SKUs of Q4 2014-Q3 2015" which granted is a bit of a mouth full.

It's fair to say the criteria for "most popular" will fit whichever agenda they wish to support.

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:
Also isn't the Cadian Def Force web only? If so that could mean "Best Sellers of 2015" actually means "Most Revenue Generating Web Sale SKUs of Q4 2014-Q3 2015" which granted is a bit of a mouth full.

At this point I'm suspecting "2015" includes at LEAST Nov 2014, which explains why all 3 of the November 2014 Tyranid releases are in the list. Maybe even as early as September with all the End Times kits that made it on to the list.

 Azreal13 wrote:
It's fair to say the criteria for "most popular" will fit whichever agenda they wish to support.

It says in the actual app, under many of the entries, best selling. Like, #5 best selling kit. There is a separate vote for most popular, which people email WD with (or cut out the back page of wd 100 and mail in hahahaha)


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:
If it's fiscal year then BaC may have missed the time frame.

But also do we know for certain starter sets are included? Dark Vengence is not on the list and do we really think they sold more Cadian Defense Forces than Dark Vengence boxes?

Also isn't the Cadian Def Force web only? If so that could mean "Best Sellers of 2015" actually means "Most Revenue Generating Web Sale SKUs of Q4 2014-Q3 2015" which granted is a bit of a mouth full.

No, CDF and Tyranid Swarm are regular items. My store always has it and restocks them as they sell -- they are on the bestsellers list that gw gives its independents, though I never actually believed they were best selling

 Talys wrote:

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:
If it's fiscal year then BaC may have missed the time frame.

But also do we know for certain starter sets are included? Dark Vengence is not on the list and do we really think they sold more Cadian Defense Forces than Dark Vengence boxes?

Also isn't the Cadian Def Force web only? If so that could mean "Best Sellers of 2015" actually means "Most Revenue Generating Web Sale SKUs of Q4 2014-Q3 2015" which granted is a bit of a mouth full.

No, CDF and Tyranid Swarm are regular items. My store always has it and restocks them as they sell -- they are on the bestsellers list that gw gives its independents, though I never actually believed they were best selling

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:
Another thought, why a top 28? Top 10s are traditional, top 12 for the 12 days of Christmas might make sense, top 31 since there's 31 days in December.

Top 28?

Any logical reason?

I wondered about that, too. I just assumed everybody was more clever than me and already understood the significance of the number 28

Or maybe they didn't want us to know that the Battle Sister with a Storm Bolter is #30?

Great, now we're going to have the Sisters players in here. Nice going, KK. Inb4 thread lock...

 the_Armyman wrote:

Or maybe they didn't want us to know that the Battle Sister with a Storm Bolter is #30?

Great, now we're going to have the Sisters players in here. Nice going, KK. Inb4 thread lock...

There was secret (sssshhh!) plan for all Sister fans to order the same mini on the same day and thereby...

Y'know I'm not even sure what step 2 was.

But step 3 was definitely force GW to make plastic sisters.

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:

Another thought, why a top 28? Top 10s are traditional, top 12 for the 12 days of Christmas might make sense, top 31 since there's 31 days in December.

Top 28?

Any logical reason?

Or maybe they didn't want us to know that the Battle Sister with a Storm Bolter is #30?

I wondered the same thing when they said top 28. My first thought was that it's a number divisible by 7 -- ie 4 weeks of best sellers. Who knows

 Talys wrote:
...they are on the bestsellers list that gw gives its independents, though I never actually believed they were best selling

Earlier in the thread someone asked why would GW lie, I figured "just to promote the models they want", but now that you mention this it does make more sense why they'd lie (if they are lying, who the feth knows ), so they can be consistent with lying to independent retailers about what the best selling kits are

Looks like AoS is going strong. /s

Imperial Assault made most Boardgame top-seller lists for last year, usually in the top 5, and that was released in mid-December. So it's entirely possible for Calth to make the cut.

 Sigvatr wrote:
Looks like AoS is going strong. /s

Hush now! There is still a chance it'll run the top three completely! And if it doesn't... then GW can fall back on that tried and tested line from the 2014 or 2013 year end report that goes something like "If you judge how good a year is by sales then..." when sales were down but they though they had a great year.

Just checked the app and #3 is skitarii vanguard

Ha, the Swarm was a good deal, especially with a discount. I bought one. It is patiently waiting its turn.

-

#3 is AdMech Skitarii Rangers

 Bottle wrote:
if the AoS starter isn't in the list and all the End Times big releases are its going to be a worrying sign.

I'd say that the lack of any of the AOS follow up kits so far being on the list is a worrying sign regardless and the lack of an AOS starter on the list would just be the last nail in the coffin. That said... I do actually expect the AOS starter to be on there since the reception for the starter box (which is separate to the overall reception to the "game"/rules) was positive. I personally don't like the aesthetics, rules, and general game design of AOS but I'm objective enough to separate the relative monetary value of the box for folks who disagree. You got alot of large and detailed (whether good or bad for both "qualities" is another story though) models in the box for a good price.

 warboss wrote:

 Bottle wrote:
if the AoS starter isn't in the list and all the End Times big releases are its going to be a worrying sign.

I'd say that the lack of any of the AOS follow up kits so far being on the list is a worrying sign regardless and the lack of an AOS starter on the list would just be the last nail in the coffin. That said... I do actually expect the AOS starter to be on there since the reception for the starter box (which is separate to the overall reception to the "game"/rules) was positive. I personally don't like the aesthetics, rules, and general game design of AOS but I'm objective enough to separate the relative monetary value of the box for folks who disagree. You got alot of large and detailed (whether good or bad for both "qualities" is another story though) models in the box for a good price.

4.5 AoS items (Bloodthirster counts as 0.5) out of the listed 25. Three left to go. I don't know that it's really a sign of anything. WH40K has been outselling and out shinning WFB/AoS for quite some time.

What AOS items are on the list? Please note that WHFB End Times items do NOT count as they were initially sold/released/marketed for a different game. I see nothing on the list that was released specifically for AOS instead of just being grandfathered in like hundreds of other SKUs from WHFB.

-

Seeing as all 3 of my local independent stores have told me that their ratio of 40k to WHFB was twenty to one -- or worse (for Fantasy) -- it doesn't surprise me at all. The question for GW, which we won't have data for isn't how AoS does against 40k, but how AoS 2016 and 2015 does versus Fantasy Battle 2014 and 2013. I don't think the bar is set very high

Look too at Forge World. When do you remember a Fantasy model being in their top 10?

 Talys wrote:
Seeing as all 3 of my local independent stores have told me that their ratio of 40k to WHFB was twenty to one -- or worse (for Fantasy) -- it doesn't surprise me at all.

I've always been under the impression WHFB was more popular in Europe than the USA. My understanding is when GW expanded in to the US, 40k grew but WHFB did not.

I tend to think End Times sold quite well, even compared to 40k.... just a shame it was the last thing they did before killing it.

#3 is in!! SKITARII RANGERS!

3...

Mars reigns supreme once more as we reveal the third-best selling kit of the year - it's the Skitarii Vanguard! Or, of course, the Rangers. Depends on how you built the man, many kits you bought over the year!

They're a bit sinister, this lot - soaked in so much radiation that even gazing upon one confers a horrible death sentence on their enemies. They really do look "great" painted up; if you've not grabbed a set of these little Martian guys, you're missing out. Go have a look and see what we mean!

Yes, note, once again.. "third best-selling kit of the year"... of course, ponder on with tinfoil hats (or without!) on whether it's all rigged

I'm gonna go with Bottle and say Calth didn't make the list. Though I don't discount the possibility that Sigmar did sooooo badly that it didn't make the cut at all.... I just think GW's half-year would be horrible if Sigmar were THAT much of a failure that it couldn't make top 28, given that it took up 60% or more of the releases (and release weeks) in that period.

@AllSeeingSkink - yeah, no doubt. Many people have said this before, that WHFB did better in Europe than the USA.

-

 Talys wrote:
#3 is in!! SKITARII RANGERS!

About 2 hours late on that one

If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

Hence the renewed interest in Specialist Games. Currently 0%, but potentially 5%?

Yup. So tardy. I'm fired, no severance, NOTHIN'!! Squatted.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

If you sell less, you can save on labor by paying less people to make, assemble, and sell the products. Another genius win-win by GW! Save on labor by selling less! Dividends for everybody!

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

They moved most of the fantasy line to direct order. It is likely that they changed the production structure of fantasy to be more in line with sales. There are tons of kits of fantasy. Anything that isn't selling go to next to zero production. The stuff that is moving inhabits the limited shelf space along side the new kits they are actively promoting. In this respect it could be a big cost saver by clearing out the old junk so to speak. If something gets a small resurgence in sales, they print a few more runs. The panic after the AOS rumor drop ensured people would buy a lot of these kits as well before GW stops making them.

It is rather absurd that there are still no new kits outside of the end times stuff for fantasy in their top sellers. If I recall correctly all the end times stuff on there came out pre-leak bomb. The Imp Knight is likely the number one or two seller. If AOS is even up there it will be the boxed set. This makes a lot of sense for it to be this high or even number one spot because it is a great deal for a lot of plastic and there was a large initial popularity spike with the release of the game. None of the flashy stormcasts or khorne guys have made it on the list. There were several months this year were that was legit the focus of GW. Yet some how a regular box of chaos space marines has sold better than those.

It will be interesting to see the report coming out soon.

 Talys wrote:
I'm gonna go with Bottle and say Calth didn't make the list. Though I don't discount the possibility that Sigmar did sooooo badly that it didn't make the cut at all.... I just think GW's half-year would be horrible if Sigmar were THAT much of a failure that it couldn't make top 28, given that it took up 60% or more of the releases (and release weeks) in that period.

I think it's really bad even if the AoS starter does show up, the starter was only the first week of the releases. None of the other AoS releases are there while we have some End Times models and there are some AoS models you'd expect to sell well if AoS was doing ok. Stormcast Judicators for example who are the main ranged unit of the Stomcasts and are not included in the starter set.

I'm fairly amazed any of the fantasy (or now AoS) stuff in in the list at all, based on the reported level of sales compared to 40K (about 8% prior to the end times and falling relatively fast)

If the AoS starter is in there I think it's going to be seen as a strong positive (even if a lot of sales initially were for 40K conversion)

People seem to think the game should be a direct replacement for Fantasy right out of the gate, but I think it's better looked at as something new, and really aimed at new entrants not existing players and suspect well start to see more as the years go by (whether it will manage to pass the old fantasy sales numbers we shall have to wait and see)

I'd say this is fun for speculation purposes, but reading anything into it more than that is fraught with danger since we don't know the criteria GW used to compose this list - time frame, profits, units moved, someone's pet favorite model, etc.

Popped into my store today (mostly to pick up this week's WD). Interestingly, store owner mentioned that they have been selling WAY more of the repackaged White AoS boxes than the old, red Fantasy product. For him, Seraphon had a major uptick after the reboxing, from practically zero to sales he's happy with. Which really makes no sense, since the only thing that's different is the bases and the boxes, but, oh well

 Talys wrote:
Popped into my store today (mostly to pick up this week's WD). Interestingly, store owner mentioned that they have been selling WAY more of the repackaged White AoS boxes than the old, red Fantasy product. For him, Seraphon had a major uptick after the reboxing, from practically zero to sales he's happy with. Which really makes no sense, since the only thing that's different is the bases and the boxes, but, oh well

I believe the reboxing also dropped the price per model slightly.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

I didn't say cut to zero, I said cut by a 30%. AOS is a much simpler product that allows rules and models to be released faster and more easily, while reducing the physical stock SKU count. Over the next year, I think the AOS cost savings become clearer.

____

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
I'm fairly amazed any of the fantasy (or now AoS) stuff in in the list at all, based on the reported level of sales compared to 40K (about 8% prior to the end times and falling relatively fast)

This. Quite frankly, I assumed GW did 28 items, because there weren't any Fantasy kits in the top 20, and a traditional Advent count of 24 would still be too few.

nedTCM wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

They moved most of the fantasy line to direct order. It is likely that they changed the production structure of fantasy to be more in line with sales. There are tons of kits of fantasy. Anything that isn't selling go to next to zero production. The stuff that is moving inhabits the limited shelf space along side the new kits they are actively promoting. In this respect it could be a big cost saver by clearing out the old junk so to speak. If something gets a small resurgence in sales, they print a few more runs. The panic after the AOS rumor drop ensured people would buy a lot of these kits as well before GW stops making them.

It is rather absurd that there are still no new kits outside of the end times stuff for fantasy in their top sellers. If I recall correctly all the end times stuff on there came out pre-leak bomb. The Imp Knight is likely the number one or two seller. If AOS is even up there it will be the boxed set. This makes a lot of sense for it to be this high or even number one spot because it is a great deal for a lot of plastic and there was a large initial popularity spike with the release of the game. None of the flashy stormcasts or khorne guys have made it on the list. There were several months this year were that was legit the focus of GW. Yet some how a regular box of chaos space marines has sold better than those.

It will be interesting to see the report coming out soon.

JohnHwangDD wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

I didn't say cut to zero, I said cut by a 30%. AOS is a much simpler product that allows rules and models to be released faster and more easily, while reducing the physical stock SKU count. Over the next year, I think the AOS cost savings become clearer.

I didn't say you said cut to zero, 30% is still a hell of a lot.

So basically you think they're going to drop a lot of product in the future? Because at this stage AoS would have cost them significantly more money than WHFB did over the past few years of letting it stagnate, because at this stage they have the same number of kits + the cost of converting them to round bases + the initial costs involved in AoS and they are writing battletomes to replace Army Books so there's no money saving there.

If it's because they're moving stuff to direct only.... well they could have done that with WHFB anyway, and in fact I think they were doing that (weren't Bretonnians shifted to direct only?).

The simpler rules themselves don't save you any money, especially if you never actually put any time in to playtesting and FAQing the complicated rules anyway

I'm kinda wondering if the Adeptus Mechanicus Battle Maniple may have made it to one of the top two spots. It seems all the individual components are on the list, and it is sold out on the site...

Was the Space Marine Demi-Company released this last year? That'd be an odd bird to see in the last two spots.

 Nicky J wrote:
Just checked the app and #3 is skitarii vanguard

Is that sweep for the Skitarri? But NO Cult Mech?

Bizarre.

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:

 Nicky J wrote:
Just checked the app and #3 is skitarii vanguard

Is that sweep for the Skitarri? But NO Cult Mech?

Bizarre.

The Skitarii came before the Cult Mechanicus, and I think we were all laboring under the assumption that they would somehow combine the two factions into one codex like they did with the Militarum Tempestus and IG codex releases. By the time Cult Mechanicus hit, a lot of people were disappointed that they inexplicably kept the two factions separate.

It also didn't help that the Kastelans were goofy-looking and the Electro-priests have terrible rules.

Is it actually true that a larger part of fantasy has been moved to web order than before AoS? I'm not intimately familiar with the SKUs, so I couldn't say, but just taking a poke at the website, most of the current plastic kits seem to be still available regularly, and the web order stuff is still predominantly the resin and metal minis.

I mean, yes, there are some plastic kits on direct -- but there are for 40k, too (like Whirlwind and Falcon come to mind)... it's just that proportionately, it's pretty small.

I'm expecting the AoS stater to make the list, not because I think it sold well, but because GW want us to believe it sold well. Perhaps that's just me being cynical, but if AoS wasn't on the list then they may have to admit to potential retailers that the product wasn't selling as well as they thought it was. IMHO it's more likely that they'd rather pretend it's doing great.

At any rate, I'm willing to believe that the list so far is based on actual sales, although with the Cadian and tyranid boxes so high up I suspect it's more likely by revenue that units sold. Even so, if they are being honest with the list then sadly I doubt that AoS will make the cut.

 Tainted wrote:
I'm expecting the AoS stater to make the list, not because I think it sold well, but because GW want us to believe it sold well. Perhaps that's just me being cynical, but if AoS wasn't on the list then they may have to admit to potential retailers that the product wasn't selling as well as they thought it was. IMHO it's more likely that they'd rather pretend it's doing great.

At any rate, I'm willing to believe that the list so far is based on actual sales, although with the Cadian and tyranid boxes so high up I suspect it's more likely by revenue that units sold. Even so, if they are being honest with the list then sadly I doubt that AoS will make the cut.

If AoS isn't on the top of the list it'll convince me that GW didn't rig the list.... I don't even think GW are silly enough to rig a list and not include AoS on it

I was going to say that even if AoS did make the list, cynics would immediately call the list rigged... Guess I was beaten to the punch!

An interesting blurb from today's blog entry at the GW site:

And so we come to the end of 2015, and what a year it’s been for our wonderful hobby. If you picked up White Dwarf 100 at the weekend you’ll have read our review of the year, in which we discussed the many models, books and hobby products that came out over the course of 2015. And there were a lot of them! Over the course of the year we've released 71 new plastic kits, making 92 different units, not to mention countless books, paints, tools, digital products, novels and no less than three new boxed games: Warhammer Age of Sigmar, Assassinorum: Execution Force and The Horus Heresy: Betrayal at Calth. What a year!

They released 71 new kits this year, which is not something to sneeze at.

So if AoS doesn't make it then it proves AoS was a flop. If it does make it then it proves GW are rigging the list?

Love it.

 BrookM wrote:
They released 71 new kits this year, which is not something to sneeze at.

And had 52 price rises.

Impressive work.

They count AoS as a 'boxed game'?

puree wrote:
So if AoS doesn't make it then it proves AoS was a flop. If it does make it then it proves GW are rigging the list?

Love it.

It's great isn't it?

puree wrote:
So if AoS doesn't make it then it proves AoS was a flop. If it does make it then it proves GW are rigging the list?

Love it.

FWIW, I was questioning the validity of the list from page 1 of this thread It has been said why would GW lie, IMO it's more like why wouldn't they lie if the truth exposes something they'd rather keep hidden (like the product they've invested a lot in to not doing so well).

puree wrote:
So if AoS doesn't make it then it proves AoS was a flop. If it does make it then it proves GW are rigging the list?

Love it.

Keep in mind that "if it doesn't make the list it flopped" and "if it's on the list it's rigged" was said by two different people.

I don't think it's possible to say the list is rigged when we have no idea what metrics GW are even using.

We could say they chose particular metrics because they gave the results they wanted, but we still have no idea what they are.

The whole list is REALLY weird, though.

Honestly, I'd really be surprised to see the AOS starter in the top two spots. I could have seen it in the list of top 28, but to be sitting at the top? Well, just not what I'd expect at all. Although I might have expected some other starters on this list as well- Dark Vengeance and Calth. With the Knight still in wait, we could really only have one of the three of those taking the top spot.

 nullBolt wrote:
I don't think it's possible to say the list is rigged when we have no idea what metrics GW are even using.

We could say they chose particular metrics because they gave the results they wanted, but we still have no idea what they are.

The whole list is REALLY weird, though.

I think the list makes sense if you assume 2 things...

1. It's revenue rather than units shifted (explains why some big kits that wouldn't shift many units are nearer the top).

2. The period of recording is from around September 2014.

#2 explains why the End Times kits are there (released Sept 2014), why the Tyranids are there (released Nov 2014), why the BA tactical squad is so high (released Dec 2014). Then Admech, Harlequins, Bloodthirster and Tau Stormsurge are all 2015 releases.

That covers everything except the Space Marine stuff (explained by their general huge popularity), Cadian Defence Force (not unbelievable if you consider it's based off revenue as it's an expensive kit that's pretty good value), Necron Battleforce (same as Cadians), Chaos Space Marines (that one's a surprise), the Scions (another surprise, I wouldn't have expected them to make the top of the list, they aren't a bad kit but I didn't think that many people would buy them) and the Baneblade (a bit of a surprise, it's an expensive kit so wouldn't have to shift as many units, but I figured most people who wanted Baneblades would have bought them in years gone by, I would have expected the Wraithknight to be up there rather than the Baneblade).

I guess the other surprise would be the lack of Eldar with their new codex and powerful units... maybe there aren't as many power gamers as we think there is.

That said.... I wouldn't put it past GW to lie if it suits their needs (making an unpopular kit they are heavily invested in seem more popular than it is).

If GW would rig a list to make AoS look better, I'd assume they would put at least one kit on there apart from the starterset.

-

They've repeatedly stated its a list of most popular miniature kits, not any products, so I don't think it will be dv/aos/bac/etc

 Bottle wrote:
Number 2 is the Knight Warden!

Taking bets now on what's number 1!

AoS Starter Set 2/1
Dark Vengence 3/1
BaC 4/1
Eldar Jetbikes 6/1
Execution Force 2000/1

I'm betting 5 on the AoS Starter, please.

I just realized- where's the Wraithknight on this list?

Yeah! Imperial Knight Warden! So..... Calth or Sigmar? I'm going to say: Sigmar.

@Bottle - lol, execution force I think by now it's safe to say it's going to be something that's on one of the two bestseller lists, so jetbikes, dv, and assassin box is out.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
2. The period of recording is from around September 2014.

No, Deathstorm would have surely outsold some of the other kits (like baneblade or blight kings), as they sold every unit they produced. It could be from Dec 1 to Nov. 30, though -- that's pretty reasonable, since the countdown started at the beginning of December.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I guess the other surprise would be the lack of Eldar with their new codex and powerful units... maybe there aren't as many power gamers as we think there is.

That said.... I wouldn't put it past GW to lie if it suits their needs (making an unpopular kit they are heavily invested in seem more popular than it is).

I agree. My conclusion is also that there are fewer power gamers than the interwebz would indicate, which isn't very surprising, because I don't know of any power gamers anymore. Though I did buy 4 boxes of Windriders It's ok though, will be a year before I get to them, and by then, Eldar Jetbikes will all have a new SR that gives them a 1/6 chance of exploding when they move.

I think if they were going to rig the list, they'd do it a little differently. Give some love to some a Stormcast kit, for example.

And according to the White Dwarf Team, the 2nd place winner is.......

#1 will be AoS. Even if it didn't sell the best, GW would be outright stupid to say so and most likely...alter the results.

 Sigvatr wrote:
#1 will be AoS. Even if it didn't sell the best, GW would be outright stupid to say so and most likely...alter the results.

You are probably right.

 Talys wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
2. The period of recording is from around September 2014.

No, Deathstorm would have surely outsold some of the other kits (like baneblade or blight kings), as they sold every unit they produced. It could be from Dec 1 to Nov. 30, though -- that's pretty reasonable, since the countdown started at the beginning of December.

How many did they produce? I thought those things were in pretty limited supply. I remember Stormclaw sold out very quickly and if I recall correctly that was a "limit X per customer" thing, so it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't make all that many.

I sincerely doubt all those Tyranids would be there if the period they are counting didn't include at least Nov 2014.

It is also possible they just aren't including starter sets, which Deathstorm basically was.

Wow! The Knights are #2. Did not expect that.

In that case... I'm saying BaC is #1.

@skink - of course, I have no idea how many they made

Also, I'm not sure when Space Hulk came out, but that was near September, too, and sold out.

Deathstorm did come back, several times, as late as early 2015 onto the website, and while it was available, it was often on the bestseller list. Our local stores sold as many as they could get their mitts on and restocked on it whenever GW popped it out.

There is a simpe explanation to DV not selling in huge numbers, too: not that many newlayers, or at least new players who want the starter box.

I'm thinking it won't be AoS or BAC. They are not pure miniature kits. They have rule books and other such stuff in them.

@puree - I'd be really surprised if there were a pure miniature kit that outsold the ones already on top, at least in terms of dollars. Windriders and Wraithknight would have been my guess, as they're nice models with great rules (and windriders is a pretty, sparkly new kit that sold out).

If we make the giant leap of faith that the best selling kit in 2015 is actually on one of GW's two bestseller lists on the website, we're down to just Calth, Stormfang, and Wolf Dreadnought on the 40k side. There is no single model kit from the Fantasy side that will even come close to #1 -- the only contenders would be Treelord Ancient, Prosecutors, Celestant-Prime, Retributors, and Blood Warriors (since the Nurgle stuff is already there, Archaon and Varanguard are way too new, and I will drop everything and paint a Seraphon or Wood Elf army if Carnosaur or the Dryads are GW's best selling kit, hahahaha).

Other than those, we only have Sigmar Starter and Calth on the website bestseller list that's not on the top 28.

I'm going to laugh my ass off if number one is going to be Archaon.

@BrookM - lol yeah He is the Everchosen, after all! I wonder what Bottle would give as odds....

To be fair, if it's by revenue then Archaon could make the cut. It's an expensive kit and I can believe that enough people would want the model for it to make it do well on a "best selling by revenue" list. Heck, I was going to buy it before I saw the price.

-

I'm going to say maybe it's the 'free' sigmarite they gave away on the almost instantly sold out white dwarf right before the AoS launch

(if popular is kits sold rather than money made)

 Bottle wrote:
Request odds and you shall receive ;-)

Archaon 32/1
Wraithknight 10/1
Smaug 200/1
Stormfang 1999/1 (still more plausible than Execution Force)

Pretty sure GW already have Archaon set aside as the 'most popular' miniature this year, it's down to GW if they want him to really live up to his title of "Everchosen" as Talys said, or if he's to be stuck with his new title of "Grand Marshmallow of the Pick-a-Mix" or whatever it was...

Those are sucker bet odds.... But I'm putting $100 on killa kans that should pay 1 million to one... Beach house in the keys here I come

@Bottle - Oh! I forgot about Smaug! Good one I don't think Execution Force sold THAT badly. A lot of people wanted the plastic assassins, and it's a way, way better deal than buying them separately. Just the "free" Chaos Sorceror makes it worthwhile.

@OrlandotheTechnicoloured - it's "best-selling", but you could still call those $5 models. Of course, if GW sold them straight to ebay, they could have charged $20 or more, a pop!

@Chute82 - LOL LOL Killa Kans. Someone should start a betting site for next year's Have horse racing type spreads and all!


Automatically Appended Next Post:
For people who don't get the app, it says at the end of the IK entry: "What will next year bring for the giant robots of Games Workshop? Time will tell..."

Conclusion: There will be at least one giant robot next year Will 2016 be the year of Titanhammer?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Incidentally, my hobby shop bought the number or units of calth for the website promotion -- 70 or 80 -- and has sold almost all of them as of today.

 Bottle wrote:
Request odds and you shall receive ;-)

Archaon 32/1
Wraithknight 10/1
Smaug 200/1
Stormfang 1999/1 (still more plausible than Execution Force)

Pretty sure GW already have Archaon set aside as the 'most popular' miniature this year, it's down to GW if they want him to really live up to his title of "Everchosen" as Talys said, or if he's to be stuck with his new title of "Grand Marshmallow of the Pick-a-Mix" or whatever it was...

No odds for Escape from Hobbit Town?



It's a limited edition!

I'd be hoping #1 is the Wraithknight, but I'm pretty sure it's not, simply because Eldar have never been especially popular. I might have expected the WK in the high teens or 20s, but #1? No way.

I'm not surprised over the IKT coming in at #2 - that was a top pick for sure.

I want to guess BaC for that pent up 30k demand, but if that's not allowed, because GW isn't counting starters of any sort, then I'm going with the SM battleforce in whatever form that takes.

Why aren't starters allowed? It says most popular kit, and they've already included Necron Battleforce, and the Tyranid and Cadian boxes.

Calth isn't even really a starter box -- more like a board game with parts you can use for 30k/40k if you want.

 Talys wrote:
Why aren't starters allowed? It says most popular kit, and they've already included Necron Battleforce, and the Tyranid and Cadian boxes.

Calth isn't even really a starter box -- more like a board game with parts you can use for 30k/40k if you want.

If Dark Vengence didn't rank anywhere I think it's a safe bet that starters aren't allowed (unless it's #1).

We'll see shortly I guess.

Smaug is number 1!

OMG.

Should have taken Bottle up on the Smaug odds!!!

I would never, ever have guessed. Wow.

I guess collectors really DO make GW a bundle of money, lol.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:

 Talys wrote:
Why aren't starters allowed? It says most popular kit, and they've already included Necron Battleforce, and the Tyranid and Cadian boxes.

Calth isn't even really a starter box -- more like a board game with parts you can use for 30k/40k if you want.

If Dark Vengence didn't rank anywhere I think it's a safe bet that starters aren't allowed (unless it's #1).

We'll see shortly I guess.

Yeah, I guess you're right. It would be insane that GW sold more units or dollars of baneblades than Dark Vengeance

-

WTF? A Hobbit Dragon? Really?

Yeah, it's fixed.