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I don't think it's possible to say the list is rigged when we have no idea what metrics GW are even using.

We could say they chose particular metrics because they gave the results they wanted, but we still have no idea what they are.

The whole list is REALLY weird, though.

Honestly, I'd really be surprised to see the AOS starter in the top two spots. I could have seen it in the list of top 28, but to be sitting at the top? Well, just not what I'd expect at all. Although I might have expected some other starters on this list as well- Dark Vengeance and Calth. With the Knight still in wait, we could really only have one of the three of those taking the top spot.

 nullBolt wrote:
I don't think it's possible to say the list is rigged when we have no idea what metrics GW are even using.

We could say they chose particular metrics because they gave the results they wanted, but we still have no idea what they are.

The whole list is REALLY weird, though.

I think the list makes sense if you assume 2 things...

1. It's revenue rather than units shifted (explains why some big kits that wouldn't shift many units are nearer the top).

2. The period of recording is from around September 2014.

#2 explains why the End Times kits are there (released Sept 2014), why the Tyranids are there (released Nov 2014), why the BA tactical squad is so high (released Dec 2014). Then Admech, Harlequins, Bloodthirster and Tau Stormsurge are all 2015 releases.

That covers everything except the Space Marine stuff (explained by their general huge popularity), Cadian Defence Force (not unbelievable if you consider it's based off revenue as it's an expensive kit that's pretty good value), Necron Battleforce (same as Cadians), Chaos Space Marines (that one's a surprise), the Scions (another surprise, I wouldn't have expected them to make the top of the list, they aren't a bad kit but I didn't think that many people would buy them) and the Baneblade (a bit of a surprise, it's an expensive kit so wouldn't have to shift as many units, but I figured most people who wanted Baneblades would have bought them in years gone by, I would have expected the Wraithknight to be up there rather than the Baneblade).

I guess the other surprise would be the lack of Eldar with their new codex and powerful units... maybe there aren't as many power gamers as we think there is.

That said.... I wouldn't put it past GW to lie if it suits their needs (making an unpopular kit they are heavily invested in seem more popular than it is).

If GW would rig a list to make AoS look better, I'd assume they would put at least one kit on there apart from the starterset.

-

They've repeatedly stated its a list of most popular miniature kits, not any products, so I don't think it will be dv/aos/bac/etc

 Bottle wrote:
Number 2 is the Knight Warden!

Taking bets now on what's number 1!

AoS Starter Set 2/1
Dark Vengence 3/1
BaC 4/1
Eldar Jetbikes 6/1
Execution Force 2000/1

I'm betting 5 on the AoS Starter, please.

I just realized- where's the Wraithknight on this list?

Yeah! Imperial Knight Warden! So..... Calth or Sigmar? I'm going to say: Sigmar.

@Bottle - lol, execution force I think by now it's safe to say it's going to be something that's on one of the two bestseller lists, so jetbikes, dv, and assassin box is out.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
2. The period of recording is from around September 2014.

No, Deathstorm would have surely outsold some of the other kits (like baneblade or blight kings), as they sold every unit they produced. It could be from Dec 1 to Nov. 30, though -- that's pretty reasonable, since the countdown started at the beginning of December.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
I guess the other surprise would be the lack of Eldar with their new codex and powerful units... maybe there aren't as many power gamers as we think there is.

That said.... I wouldn't put it past GW to lie if it suits their needs (making an unpopular kit they are heavily invested in seem more popular than it is).

I agree. My conclusion is also that there are fewer power gamers than the interwebz would indicate, which isn't very surprising, because I don't know of any power gamers anymore. Though I did buy 4 boxes of Windriders It's ok though, will be a year before I get to them, and by then, Eldar Jetbikes will all have a new SR that gives them a 1/6 chance of exploding when they move.

I think if they were going to rig the list, they'd do it a little differently. Give some love to some a Stormcast kit, for example.

And according to the White Dwarf Team, the 2nd place winner is.......

#1 will be AoS. Even if it didn't sell the best, GW would be outright stupid to say so and most likely...alter the results.

 Sigvatr wrote:
#1 will be AoS. Even if it didn't sell the best, GW would be outright stupid to say so and most likely...alter the results.

You are probably right.

 Talys wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:
2. The period of recording is from around September 2014.

No, Deathstorm would have surely outsold some of the other kits (like baneblade or blight kings), as they sold every unit they produced. It could be from Dec 1 to Nov. 30, though -- that's pretty reasonable, since the countdown started at the beginning of December.

How many did they produce? I thought those things were in pretty limited supply. I remember Stormclaw sold out very quickly and if I recall correctly that was a "limit X per customer" thing, so it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't make all that many.

I sincerely doubt all those Tyranids would be there if the period they are counting didn't include at least Nov 2014.

It is also possible they just aren't including starter sets, which Deathstorm basically was.

Wow! The Knights are #2. Did not expect that.

In that case... I'm saying BaC is #1.

@skink - of course, I have no idea how many they made

Also, I'm not sure when Space Hulk came out, but that was near September, too, and sold out.

Deathstorm did come back, several times, as late as early 2015 onto the website, and while it was available, it was often on the bestseller list. Our local stores sold as many as they could get their mitts on and restocked on it whenever GW popped it out.

There is a simpe explanation to DV not selling in huge numbers, too: not that many newlayers, or at least new players who want the starter box.

I'm thinking it won't be AoS or BAC. They are not pure miniature kits. They have rule books and other such stuff in them.

@puree - I'd be really surprised if there were a pure miniature kit that outsold the ones already on top, at least in terms of dollars. Windriders and Wraithknight would have been my guess, as they're nice models with great rules (and windriders is a pretty, sparkly new kit that sold out).

If we make the giant leap of faith that the best selling kit in 2015 is actually on one of GW's two bestseller lists on the website, we're down to just Calth, Stormfang, and Wolf Dreadnought on the 40k side. There is no single model kit from the Fantasy side that will even come close to #1 -- the only contenders would be Treelord Ancient, Prosecutors, Celestant-Prime, Retributors, and Blood Warriors (since the Nurgle stuff is already there, Archaon and Varanguard are way too new, and I will drop everything and paint a Seraphon or Wood Elf army if Carnosaur or the Dryads are GW's best selling kit, hahahaha).

Other than those, we only have Sigmar Starter and Calth on the website bestseller list that's not on the top 28.

I'm going to laugh my ass off if number one is going to be Archaon.

@BrookM - lol yeah He is the Everchosen, after all! I wonder what Bottle would give as odds....

To be fair, if it's by revenue then Archaon could make the cut. It's an expensive kit and I can believe that enough people would want the model for it to make it do well on a "best selling by revenue" list. Heck, I was going to buy it before I saw the price.

-

I'm going to say maybe it's the 'free' sigmarite they gave away on the almost instantly sold out white dwarf right before the AoS launch

(if popular is kits sold rather than money made)

 Bottle wrote:
Request odds and you shall receive ;-)

Archaon 32/1
Wraithknight 10/1
Smaug 200/1
Stormfang 1999/1 (still more plausible than Execution Force)

Pretty sure GW already have Archaon set aside as the 'most popular' miniature this year, it's down to GW if they want him to really live up to his title of "Everchosen" as Talys said, or if he's to be stuck with his new title of "Grand Marshmallow of the Pick-a-Mix" or whatever it was...

Those are sucker bet odds.... But I'm putting $100 on killa kans that should pay 1 million to one... Beach house in the keys here I come

@Bottle - Oh! I forgot about Smaug! Good one I don't think Execution Force sold THAT badly. A lot of people wanted the plastic assassins, and it's a way, way better deal than buying them separately. Just the "free" Chaos Sorceror makes it worthwhile.

@OrlandotheTechnicoloured - it's "best-selling", but you could still call those $5 models. Of course, if GW sold them straight to ebay, they could have charged $20 or more, a pop!

@Chute82 - LOL LOL Killa Kans. Someone should start a betting site for next year's Have horse racing type spreads and all!


Automatically Appended Next Post:
For people who don't get the app, it says at the end of the IK entry: "What will next year bring for the giant robots of Games Workshop? Time will tell..."

Conclusion: There will be at least one giant robot next year Will 2016 be the year of Titanhammer?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Incidentally, my hobby shop bought the number or units of calth for the website promotion -- 70 or 80 -- and has sold almost all of them as of today.

 Bottle wrote:
Request odds and you shall receive ;-)

Archaon 32/1
Wraithknight 10/1
Smaug 200/1
Stormfang 1999/1 (still more plausible than Execution Force)

Pretty sure GW already have Archaon set aside as the 'most popular' miniature this year, it's down to GW if they want him to really live up to his title of "Everchosen" as Talys said, or if he's to be stuck with his new title of "Grand Marshmallow of the Pick-a-Mix" or whatever it was...

No odds for Escape from Hobbit Town?



It's a limited edition!

I'd be hoping #1 is the Wraithknight, but I'm pretty sure it's not, simply because Eldar have never been especially popular. I might have expected the WK in the high teens or 20s, but #1? No way.

I'm not surprised over the IKT coming in at #2 - that was a top pick for sure.

I want to guess BaC for that pent up 30k demand, but if that's not allowed, because GW isn't counting starters of any sort, then I'm going with the SM battleforce in whatever form that takes.

Why aren't starters allowed? It says most popular kit, and they've already included Necron Battleforce, and the Tyranid and Cadian boxes.

Calth isn't even really a starter box -- more like a board game with parts you can use for 30k/40k if you want.

 Talys wrote:
Why aren't starters allowed? It says most popular kit, and they've already included Necron Battleforce, and the Tyranid and Cadian boxes.

Calth isn't even really a starter box -- more like a board game with parts you can use for 30k/40k if you want.

If Dark Vengence didn't rank anywhere I think it's a safe bet that starters aren't allowed (unless it's #1).

We'll see shortly I guess.

Smaug is number 1!

OMG.

Should have taken Bottle up on the Smaug odds!!!

I would never, ever have guessed. Wow.

I guess collectors really DO make GW a bundle of money, lol.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:

 Talys wrote:
Why aren't starters allowed? It says most popular kit, and they've already included Necron Battleforce, and the Tyranid and Cadian boxes.

Calth isn't even really a starter box -- more like a board game with parts you can use for 30k/40k if you want.

If Dark Vengence didn't rank anywhere I think it's a safe bet that starters aren't allowed (unless it's #1).

We'll see shortly I guess.

Yeah, I guess you're right. It would be insane that GW sold more units or dollars of baneblades than Dark Vengeance