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 Talys wrote:
Seeing as all 3 of my local independent stores have told me that their ratio of 40k to WHFB was twenty to one -- or worse (for Fantasy) -- it doesn't surprise me at all.

I've always been under the impression WHFB was more popular in Europe than the USA. My understanding is when GW expanded in to the US, 40k grew but WHFB did not.

I tend to think End Times sold quite well, even compared to 40k.... just a shame it was the last thing they did before killing it.

#3 is in!! SKITARII RANGERS!

3...

Mars reigns supreme once more as we reveal the third-best selling kit of the year - it's the Skitarii Vanguard! Or, of course, the Rangers. Depends on how you built the man, many kits you bought over the year!

They're a bit sinister, this lot - soaked in so much radiation that even gazing upon one confers a horrible death sentence on their enemies. They really do look "great" painted up; if you've not grabbed a set of these little Martian guys, you're missing out. Go have a look and see what we mean!

Yes, note, once again.. "third best-selling kit of the year"... of course, ponder on with tinfoil hats (or without!) on whether it's all rigged

I'm gonna go with Bottle and say Calth didn't make the list. Though I don't discount the possibility that Sigmar did sooooo badly that it didn't make the cut at all.... I just think GW's half-year would be horrible if Sigmar were THAT much of a failure that it couldn't make top 28, given that it took up 60% or more of the releases (and release weeks) in that period.

@AllSeeingSkink - yeah, no doubt. Many people have said this before, that WHFB did better in Europe than the USA.

-

 Talys wrote:
#3 is in!! SKITARII RANGERS!

About 2 hours late on that one

If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

Hence the renewed interest in Specialist Games. Currently 0%, but potentially 5%?

Yup. So tardy. I'm fired, no severance, NOTHIN'!! Squatted.

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

If you sell less, you can save on labor by paying less people to make, assemble, and sell the products. Another genius win-win by GW! Save on labor by selling less! Dividends for everybody!

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

They moved most of the fantasy line to direct order. It is likely that they changed the production structure of fantasy to be more in line with sales. There are tons of kits of fantasy. Anything that isn't selling go to next to zero production. The stuff that is moving inhabits the limited shelf space along side the new kits they are actively promoting. In this respect it could be a big cost saver by clearing out the old junk so to speak. If something gets a small resurgence in sales, they print a few more runs. The panic after the AOS rumor drop ensured people would buy a lot of these kits as well before GW stops making them.

It is rather absurd that there are still no new kits outside of the end times stuff for fantasy in their top sellers. If I recall correctly all the end times stuff on there came out pre-leak bomb. The Imp Knight is likely the number one or two seller. If AOS is even up there it will be the boxed set. This makes a lot of sense for it to be this high or even number one spot because it is a great deal for a lot of plastic and there was a large initial popularity spike with the release of the game. None of the flashy stormcasts or khorne guys have made it on the list. There were several months this year were that was legit the focus of GW. Yet some how a regular box of chaos space marines has sold better than those.

It will be interesting to see the report coming out soon.

 Talys wrote:
I'm gonna go with Bottle and say Calth didn't make the list. Though I don't discount the possibility that Sigmar did sooooo badly that it didn't make the cut at all.... I just think GW's half-year would be horrible if Sigmar were THAT much of a failure that it couldn't make top 28, given that it took up 60% or more of the releases (and release weeks) in that period.

I think it's really bad even if the AoS starter does show up, the starter was only the first week of the releases. None of the other AoS releases are there while we have some End Times models and there are some AoS models you'd expect to sell well if AoS was doing ok. Stormcast Judicators for example who are the main ranged unit of the Stomcasts and are not included in the starter set.

I'm fairly amazed any of the fantasy (or now AoS) stuff in in the list at all, based on the reported level of sales compared to 40K (about 8% prior to the end times and falling relatively fast)

If the AoS starter is in there I think it's going to be seen as a strong positive (even if a lot of sales initially were for 40K conversion)

People seem to think the game should be a direct replacement for Fantasy right out of the gate, but I think it's better looked at as something new, and really aimed at new entrants not existing players and suspect well start to see more as the years go by (whether it will manage to pass the old fantasy sales numbers we shall have to wait and see)

I'd say this is fun for speculation purposes, but reading anything into it more than that is fraught with danger since we don't know the criteria GW used to compose this list - time frame, profits, units moved, someone's pet favorite model, etc.

Popped into my store today (mostly to pick up this week's WD). Interestingly, store owner mentioned that they have been selling WAY more of the repackaged White AoS boxes than the old, red Fantasy product. For him, Seraphon had a major uptick after the reboxing, from practically zero to sales he's happy with. Which really makes no sense, since the only thing that's different is the bases and the boxes, but, oh well

 Talys wrote:
Popped into my store today (mostly to pick up this week's WD). Interestingly, store owner mentioned that they have been selling WAY more of the repackaged White AoS boxes than the old, red Fantasy product. For him, Seraphon had a major uptick after the reboxing, from practically zero to sales he's happy with. Which really makes no sense, since the only thing that's different is the bases and the boxes, but, oh well

I believe the reboxing also dropped the price per model slightly.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

I didn't say cut to zero, I said cut by a 30%. AOS is a much simpler product that allows rules and models to be released faster and more easily, while reducing the physical stock SKU count. Over the next year, I think the AOS cost savings become clearer.

____

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
I'm fairly amazed any of the fantasy (or now AoS) stuff in in the list at all, based on the reported level of sales compared to 40K (about 8% prior to the end times and falling relatively fast)

This. Quite frankly, I assumed GW did 28 items, because there weren't any Fantasy kits in the top 20, and a traditional Advent count of 24 would still be too few.

nedTCM wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

They moved most of the fantasy line to direct order. It is likely that they changed the production structure of fantasy to be more in line with sales. There are tons of kits of fantasy. Anything that isn't selling go to next to zero production. The stuff that is moving inhabits the limited shelf space along side the new kits they are actively promoting. In this respect it could be a big cost saver by clearing out the old junk so to speak. If something gets a small resurgence in sales, they print a few more runs. The panic after the AOS rumor drop ensured people would buy a lot of these kits as well before GW stops making them.

It is rather absurd that there are still no new kits outside of the end times stuff for fantasy in their top sellers. If I recall correctly all the end times stuff on there came out pre-leak bomb. The Imp Knight is likely the number one or two seller. If AOS is even up there it will be the boxed set. This makes a lot of sense for it to be this high or even number one spot because it is a great deal for a lot of plastic and there was a large initial popularity spike with the release of the game. None of the flashy stormcasts or khorne guys have made it on the list. There were several months this year were that was legit the focus of GW. Yet some how a regular box of chaos space marines has sold better than those.

It will be interesting to see the report coming out soon.

JohnHwangDD wrote:

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 JohnHwangDD wrote:
If AoS bumped overall Fantasy sales from 5% of 40k volume up to 8%, while cutting support costs by 30%, that would be an unqualified success by any business measure.

How would AoS have cut support costs by 30%, if at all? They have the same number of kits on the shelves. They dropped army books, but are bringing out battle tombs which are going to take up the same shelf space. They are reboxing all the kits to have round bases. Not to mention the initial investment cost involved in bringing out a new system (it doesn't matter how sparse the rules are, it still costs money to introduce a new system).

I didn't say cut to zero, I said cut by a 30%. AOS is a much simpler product that allows rules and models to be released faster and more easily, while reducing the physical stock SKU count. Over the next year, I think the AOS cost savings become clearer.

I didn't say you said cut to zero, 30% is still a hell of a lot.

So basically you think they're going to drop a lot of product in the future? Because at this stage AoS would have cost them significantly more money than WHFB did over the past few years of letting it stagnate, because at this stage they have the same number of kits + the cost of converting them to round bases + the initial costs involved in AoS and they are writing battletomes to replace Army Books so there's no money saving there.

If it's because they're moving stuff to direct only.... well they could have done that with WHFB anyway, and in fact I think they were doing that (weren't Bretonnians shifted to direct only?).

The simpler rules themselves don't save you any money, especially if you never actually put any time in to playtesting and FAQing the complicated rules anyway

I'm kinda wondering if the Adeptus Mechanicus Battle Maniple may have made it to one of the top two spots. It seems all the individual components are on the list, and it is sold out on the site...

Was the Space Marine Demi-Company released this last year? That'd be an odd bird to see in the last two spots.

 Nicky J wrote:
Just checked the app and #3 is skitarii vanguard

Is that sweep for the Skitarri? But NO Cult Mech?

Bizarre.

 Kid_Kyoto wrote:

 Nicky J wrote:
Just checked the app and #3 is skitarii vanguard

Is that sweep for the Skitarri? But NO Cult Mech?

Bizarre.

The Skitarii came before the Cult Mechanicus, and I think we were all laboring under the assumption that they would somehow combine the two factions into one codex like they did with the Militarum Tempestus and IG codex releases. By the time Cult Mechanicus hit, a lot of people were disappointed that they inexplicably kept the two factions separate.

It also didn't help that the Kastelans were goofy-looking and the Electro-priests have terrible rules.

Is it actually true that a larger part of fantasy has been moved to web order than before AoS? I'm not intimately familiar with the SKUs, so I couldn't say, but just taking a poke at the website, most of the current plastic kits seem to be still available regularly, and the web order stuff is still predominantly the resin and metal minis.

I mean, yes, there are some plastic kits on direct -- but there are for 40k, too (like Whirlwind and Falcon come to mind)... it's just that proportionately, it's pretty small.

I'm expecting the AoS stater to make the list, not because I think it sold well, but because GW want us to believe it sold well. Perhaps that's just me being cynical, but if AoS wasn't on the list then they may have to admit to potential retailers that the product wasn't selling as well as they thought it was. IMHO it's more likely that they'd rather pretend it's doing great.

At any rate, I'm willing to believe that the list so far is based on actual sales, although with the Cadian and tyranid boxes so high up I suspect it's more likely by revenue that units sold. Even so, if they are being honest with the list then sadly I doubt that AoS will make the cut.

 Tainted wrote:
I'm expecting the AoS stater to make the list, not because I think it sold well, but because GW want us to believe it sold well. Perhaps that's just me being cynical, but if AoS wasn't on the list then they may have to admit to potential retailers that the product wasn't selling as well as they thought it was. IMHO it's more likely that they'd rather pretend it's doing great.

At any rate, I'm willing to believe that the list so far is based on actual sales, although with the Cadian and tyranid boxes so high up I suspect it's more likely by revenue that units sold. Even so, if they are being honest with the list then sadly I doubt that AoS will make the cut.

If AoS isn't on the top of the list it'll convince me that GW didn't rig the list.... I don't even think GW are silly enough to rig a list and not include AoS on it

I was going to say that even if AoS did make the list, cynics would immediately call the list rigged... Guess I was beaten to the punch!

An interesting blurb from today's blog entry at the GW site:

And so we come to the end of 2015, and what a year it’s been for our wonderful hobby. If you picked up White Dwarf 100 at the weekend you’ll have read our review of the year, in which we discussed the many models, books and hobby products that came out over the course of 2015. And there were a lot of them! Over the course of the year we've released 71 new plastic kits, making 92 different units, not to mention countless books, paints, tools, digital products, novels and no less than three new boxed games: Warhammer Age of Sigmar, Assassinorum: Execution Force and The Horus Heresy: Betrayal at Calth. What a year!

They released 71 new kits this year, which is not something to sneeze at.

So if AoS doesn't make it then it proves AoS was a flop. If it does make it then it proves GW are rigging the list?

Love it.

 BrookM wrote:
They released 71 new kits this year, which is not something to sneeze at.

And had 52 price rises.

Impressive work.

They count AoS as a 'boxed game'?

puree wrote:
So if AoS doesn't make it then it proves AoS was a flop. If it does make it then it proves GW are rigging the list?

Love it.

It's great isn't it?

puree wrote:
So if AoS doesn't make it then it proves AoS was a flop. If it does make it then it proves GW are rigging the list?

Love it.

FWIW, I was questioning the validity of the list from page 1 of this thread It has been said why would GW lie, IMO it's more like why wouldn't they lie if the truth exposes something they'd rather keep hidden (like the product they've invested a lot in to not doing so well).

puree wrote:
So if AoS doesn't make it then it proves AoS was a flop. If it does make it then it proves GW are rigging the list?

Love it.

Keep in mind that "if it doesn't make the list it flopped" and "if it's on the list it's rigged" was said by two different people.