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NeedleOfInquiry wrote:

ShumaGorath wrote:

Wouldn't the best solution be a massive bombing campaign against all of north koreas border forces? It wouldn't be particularly hard to orchestrate, though it would quietly. The concept of a preemptive strike may be "distasteful" after Iraq, but I can think of no better time or place for such a tactic. North Koreas military is great at one thing, and thats rolling over Major South Korean population centers and attempting to disable the American presence there. Satellites can see north korea as well as any other part of the world, and you can bet that there have been "choice targets" for decades. The north could never defend itself against a coordinated strike by the U.S., China, or the U.N. They are simply too outdated and under-equipped. Crippling the Norths ability to deliver a nuclear weapon and removing the border forces capability of delivering chemical agents would turn them into a paper tiger.

Sure, pick which American or Japanese city goes away a week after the bombing runs..... The North Koreans have very good mini subs with highly dedicated crews who have committed suicide on capture every time. They would without hesitation take a nuke and employ it at arms length, and both the American and Japanese and South Korean governments know it.

Do you believe that these subs already have the nuclear weapons loaded aboard? And are they good enough to accurately navigate to the coastal U.S. without being discovered? A military assault at full strength would certainly entail a general naval blockade, likely by multiple countries acting in consort. It wouldn't be easy to transport the large and delicate nuclear devices that they can't yet load into warheads into a functioning minisub along with the trained personnel to utilize it.

Just got a message from one of my pards who is still connected..

The "North Korea - 1/8th to 1/12th of their population is in the military, 4th largest army in the world. They have the largest group of Special Forces in the world as well, 100 to 120 thousand, 23 brigades, yes brigades." statement I made is wrong.

The North Korean Special Forces have been increased in the last year to 180,000, up 50% in 12 months......

NeedleOfInquiry wrote:Just got a message from one of my pards who is still connected..

The "North Korea - 1/8th to 1/12th of their population is in the military, 4th largest army in the world. They have the largest group of Special Forces in the world as well, 100 to 120 thousand, 23 brigades, yes brigades." statement I made is wrong.

The North Korean Special Forces have been increased in the last year to 180,000, up 50% in 12 months......

Thats a major buildup. Likely trained in insurgency warfare too. Scary. Doesn't help them much against the sea or sky though, especially without the ethnosectarian warfare situations in which insurgencies thrive. Without food and the logistical support networks like Hamass enjoy they would sputter out quickly.

This isn't the first time Kim has huffed and puffed. HE plan was to wait till 2012 to pass power to his son, but health issues had him move it up. Thier gas and balistic power is over-rated The US has had 50 years to dig in run drill and prepare. Along with the 22k troops the heavy bombers in Japan, and a complete flight of f-22 raptors are 25 min away. Their capital would be ours in two days, and thier military flattened in two weeks tops. There won't be any aid from Russia or China this time. No moral delimas like Iraq. By the time our troops march it will be for clean up duty. they can't get in close enough range to use what badly contained chemicals they have.

That said, I called for N.Korea to be invaded back before we went to Iraq, they had confirmed Nuke materials. Kim is just rattling his sabre, nothing new to see here.

"Do you believe that these subs already have the nuclear weapons loaded aboard? And are they good enough to accurately navigate to the coastal U.S. without being discovered? A military assault at full strength would certainly entail a general naval blockade, likely by multiple countries acting in consort. It wouldn't be easy to transport the large and delicate nuclear devices that they can't yet load into warheads into a functioning minisub along with the trained personnel to utilize it."

Ummm, do you know the current state of our navy? We can not even stop Columbia drug subs which are submersibles with air tanks.

The NK subs and crew are well trained and can easily carry a device into a harbor. They have been sneaking into harbors all over Asia for the last 20 years and only got caught 3 times, and the crews suicided all 3 times.

Their special forces get their language training from citizens of other countries that are kidnapped by shore parties from these subs.

Look at a map of NK and tell me again about a general blokade....

Look at a map of NK and tell me again about a general blokade....

It's a lot of coast. How much of it has a nuclear device and sub waiting to go? Unless they have them already prepared (possible) they would have to react to an attack with such a maneuver (a difficult proposition given the likelyhood that virtually all known military docks would be almost certainly destroyed day one). It's also very likely that all suspected sites for holding nuclear devices would be bombed into craters.

What are the operational ranges of their minisubs? Wikipedia states them at well below what would be required for a transcontinental trip.




Also I fail to see how thats any worse of a final outcome than having them sell the device to terrorists. Especially when you believe that thats the "best we can hope for".

sexiest_hero wrote:

Automatically Appended Next Post:
"Wikipedia states them at well below what would be required for a transcontinental trip"

WOW, Wikipedia.....

To keep it simple, and unclassified, lets just suppose that they can only reach Japan, that's close enough for both the Japanese and American governments.

Ummm 22k general troops, about one in 12 combat troops verses several million NK Troops and 180,000 special forces who will dropped directly on the surviving Americans, the bombers that are in Iraq, and a complete flight, wow, all 4 of them F-22's that are going to do what? Never mind, you have no idea what you are talking about if you think a general invasion could be smashed in 2 weeks much less than 2 years, lol

Two years? Hardly. North korea has neither the industry, nor logistical ability to prosecute a war for a few weeks, let alone a few years. When their troops are all starving after two weeks of being bombed from the sea and sky what are they going to do? We certainly won't be feeding them any more. They have pure numbers, very little else. Their military is largely malnourished and while the number of "special forces" is impressive, their level of actual comprehensive and useful training is highly suspect. Especially when they are likely training against a cold war threat and would be facing a modern set of militaries unilaterally opposed to them surrounding them on every front with massive and total naval and air supremacy.

Their ability to deliver a nuclear weapon unconventionally is frightening, as is the threat of surprise chemical attacks on civilian centers along the border. The Norths actual military capability is incredibly overrated.

WOW, Wikipedia.....

To keep it simple, and unclassified, lets just suppose that they can only reach Japan, that's close enough for both the Japanese and American governments.

Say what you will, but wikipedia sights its sources to available documents. I have no idea what your credentials are. You seem very knowledgeable, but you also seem to overestimate their military capabilty to the point where its illogical.

Ummm 22k general troops, about one in 12 combat troops verses several million NK Troops and 180,000 special forces who will dropped directly on the surviving Americans, the bombers that are in Iraq, and a complete flight, wow, all 4 of them F-22's that are going to do what? Never mind, you have no idea what you are talking about if you think a general invasion could be smashed in 2 weeks much less than 2 years, lol

Case in point.

ShumaGorath wrote:

Ummm 22k general troops, about one in 12 combat troops verses several million NK Troops and 180,000 special forces who will dropped directly on the surviving Americans, the bombers that are in Iraq, and a complete flight, wow, all 4 of them F-22's that are going to do what? Never mind, you have no idea what you are talking about if you think a general invasion could be smashed in 2 weeks much less than 2 years, lol

Two years? Hardly. North korea has neither the industry, nor logistical ability to prosecute a war for a few weeks, let alone a few years. When their troops are all starving after two weeks of being bombed from the sea and sky what are they going to do? We certainly won't be feeding them any more. They have pure numbers, very little else. Their military is largely malnourished and while the number of "special forces" is impressive, their level of actual comprehensive and useful training is highly suspect. Especially when they are likely training against a cold war threat and would be facing a modern set of militaries unilaterally opposed to them surrounding them on every front with massive and total naval and air supremacy.

Their ability to deliver a nuclear weapon unconventionally is frightening, as is the threat of surprise chemical attacks on civilian centers along the border. The Norths actual military capability is incredibly overrated.

"The Norths actual military capability is incredibly overrated." What military background do you have to make such a foolish statement? You sound just like that idiot that was the S2 for General Douglas MacArthur that proclaimed the war was over just before we got punched all the way back to the sea to Pusan

They will be eating South Korean food, since they will have wiped out all American and South Korean troops. And all that South Korean industry will be theirs. And we do not have the current industry or troops or transport capability for an amphibious assault to take back South Korea. And all of our equipment is worn out. Did I mention that all those soldiers and specialty units you need for a real conventional war have been eliminated and converted to ground troops for a insurgency war?

There was a reason he waited till now to do anything....

You lack of knowledge of the current state of our military is mind boggling.....




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In any case if he attacks he will take Seoul, wipe out all Americans, secure the shores and demand a cessation of hostilities at that point or he will nuke some one.



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By the way

Korea will be unable to help, China and the Soviets will not help, which leaves Japan and Nato.

Nato will not, why should they?

And Japan will be too scared to help.

How do you launch an invasion when your closest friendly base will be Aussies?

"The Norths actual military capability is incredibly overrated." What military background do you have to make such a foolish statement? You sound just like that idiot that was the S2 for General Douglas MacArthur that proclaimed the war was over just before we got punched all the way back to the sea to Pusan

The situations are hardly analogous, but ok. Throw that out there, clearly your mighty tome of history knowledge validates your comparison. I bet the romans didn't think much of the bretons either. I bet I sound just like a certain young emperor.

They will be eating South Korean food, since they will have wiped out all American and South Korean troops. And all that South Korean industry will be theirs. And we do not have the current industry or troops or transport capability for an amphibious assault to take back South Korea. And all of our equipment is worn out. Did I mention that all those soldiers and specialty units you need for a real conventional war have been eliminated and converted to ground troops for a insurgency war?

Odd then how giant planes that fly really high dropping bombs on things is still frightfully effective. Especially on cold war manpower militaries! And we have plenty of those waiting. And missiles. Missiles too. Tanks. Helicopters. You know, all those things that just sit in mothballs now that Iraq doesn't have a military to hit. The japanese made the mistake of assuming a major economic power couldn't repurpose it's military quickly, and payed the price.

Nothing ups recruitment numbers like a just war. Nothing. Hell, if the north invaded the south I would probably be up there myself.

There was a reason he waited till now to do anything....

The stroke he had?
Or the nukes he was waiting to acquire?
The son that needed to grow older?

I think there are a lot of reasons he waited. Waiting until after the american military was looking for any excuse to move out of Iraq and flex it's muscle in a more appropriate manner isn't a smart one. His perfect time was two years ago, but he didn't have the capability then.

You lack of knowledge of the current state of our military is mind boggling.....

Simple logic would save you a lot of hardship here. Numeric superiority is meaningless when your foe has total and absolute air and sea supremacy. Especially when you have an ocean on both sides and have made an enemy of the entire planet. The north can't strike at any of it's would be attackers (beyond the nuke at japan, and if that dropped china would roll them up like a rug). Their only capability is overpowering the north and taking land. Even their ability to capitalize on the gains is highly suspect, especially during the whole "The planet is attacking you" thing.

And Japan will be too scared to help.

Now you're just making crap up.

In any case if he attacks he will take Seoul, wipe out all Americans, secure the shores and demand a cessation of hostilities at that point or he will nuke some one.

I don't believe that his demands will be agreed upon. The north has a few bad nukes. Weak ones. It's hardly a MAD situation, and he would be hardpressed to deliver them once hostilities have begun in earnest.

China and the Soviets will not help

The soviets won't, not that they really could. China though may surprise you. It's already started backpedaling decades of political ties with the north. They can't stomache a conflict opposed to us, and refusing to support the world against the north would be economic suicide.









:edit: Anyway, I'm going to bed. You seem very knowledgeable about all this. Welcome to dakka, glad to have someone with some actual experience around.

The crux of the matter is whether the politicians will see Korea selling nukes or the losses in a ground war as the greater risk. If they determine that nuclear armed terrorists are a greater threat to national security then the casualties the US would incur, make no mistake, they will sacrifice those lives.

As far as Japan not being attacked: once the shooting starts, there are no neutral parties. And in all honesty, it's not hard to manufacture an incident that could be used to claim that Japan had been attacked. (Gulf of Tonkin, anyone?)

NK will struggle with the old saying that an Army marches on it's stomach. If they're having a hard time feeding the troops in their barracks, how much more so with bombers hitting their lines of supply, and the SK executing a scotched earth policy?

No matter how you look at it, it will be a probably short, violent conflict. (For information on NK's sea going capabilities, see Jane's Guide. Wonderful books.)

I also think that you're underestimating the RoK and the influence of the (oft maligned) US Navy. Remember, it is a peninsula.

Also, on the subject of Chlorine... it has a surprisingly low fatality rate, as it can be partially neutralized with a wet handkerchief. It's quite visible and has a very distinctive oder and taste. In fact, as I recall back in WWI the Germans gave up on it after a while heading to Phosgene and Mustard Gas, which are far more effective.

"The Norths actual military capability is incredibly overrated." What military background do you have to make such a foolish statement? You sound just like that idiot that was the S2 for General Douglas MacArthur that proclaimed the war was over just before we got punched all the way back to the sea to Pusan

They will be eating South Korean food, since they will have wiped out all American and South Korean troops. And all that South Korean industry will be theirs. And we do not have the current industry or troops or transport capability for an amphibious assault to take back South Korea. And all of our equipment is worn out. Did I mention that all those soldiers and specialty units you need for a real conventional war have been eliminated and converted to ground troops for a insurgency war?

There was a reason he waited till now to do anything....

You lack of knowledge of the current state of our military is mind boggling.....



Technically speaking we have the 2nd largest military in the world. We are still the best equiped and best trained. I do admit there are not enough boots on the ground in SK and our military is overstreched as it already stands in a two front war. If NK does attack they would probaly start with nukes then carried on by a full frontal assault. They have 1000 pieaces of artillery siting on the border which is mind boggling and could level Seoul within days. We only have maybe 30000 boots overthere that maybe able to hold them with the ROK army for a little while, as long as we get air superiorty which wouldnt take long seeing how we are decades ahead of them in technology.

I agree with some opionions though we should have dealt with NK years ago. I served i nthe army from 2000-2004and ill never forget what my Drill Sgt/s told me. NK is our biggest threat and enemy and that if we
"ever" go to war it will be with them. In the end NK will do nothing just like before. One day though they will have to be dealt with.

NeedleOfInquiry wrote:
"The Norths actual military capability is incredibly overrated." What military background do you have to make such a foolish statement? You sound just like that idiot that was the S2 for General Douglas MacArthur that proclaimed the war was over just before we got punched all the way back to the sea to Pusan

They will be eating South Korean food, since they will have wiped out all American and South Korean troops. And all that South Korean industry will be theirs. And we do not have the current industry or troops or transport capability for an amphibious assault to take back South Korea. And all of our equipment is worn out. Did I mention that all those soldiers and specialty units you need for a real conventional war have been eliminated and converted to ground troops for a insurgency war?

If they have to blast Seoul flat with 8k artillery pieces, they won't be taking the Industry intact. And if the ground commanders have two brain cells to rub together, they won't get much food either. And don't underestimate the RoK. They have 655k men in active duty with a reserve of approx 3m men, being the sixth largest army in the world. Even if they're less then elite, with US air support I should imagine they'd hang on for a while and they're largely right there, not deployed all over like we are.

Admittedly, NK has approx twice that by way of troops.

Assuming that poison gas does not wipe out the military in a tremendous alpha strike, (which I doubt will be successful. They're very much on alert these days, but civilian casualties would be horrendous. Look at what happened at Bari.) You're actually looking at fairly good odds of the RoK holding Seoul. They'd better equipped, on the defensive, and fighting with the knowledge that surrender is not an option. Those 8k artillery pieces will probably only get to fire three or four salvos before either counter-battery fire or the US Navy starts seriously cutting into their numbers.

NeedleOfInquiry wrote:
In any case if he attacks he will take Seoul, wipe out all Americans, secure the shores and demand a cessation of hostilities at that point or he will nuke some one.

By the way

Korea will be unable to help, China and the Soviets will not help, which leaves Japan and Nato.

Nato will not, why should they?

And Japan will be too scared to help.

How do you launch an invasion when your closest friendly base will be Aussies?

By Sea, of Course! (see USS Boxer)

And B-52s have a hell of a range. China and Russia, probably no help there, but Japan and the Philippines will probably allow the US the use of their airspace at the very least.

China and the Soviets will not help

That's funny, I was under the impression that the Soviets disbanded a long time ago.

Frazzled wrote:Why insane. Are you saying the rest of the world with exception of the UK is insane?

Well, we've known forever.

NeedleOfInquiry wrote:Just got a message from one of my pards who is still connected..

The "North Korea - 1/8th to 1/12th of their population is in the military, 4th largest army in the world. They have the largest group of Special Forces in the world as well, 100 to 120 thousand, 23 brigades, yes brigades." statement I made is wrong.

The North Korean Special Forces have been increased in the last year to 180,000, up 50% in 12 months......

Yea, to be honest I'm not sure why everyone is so quick to underestimate NK. Their army is probably more overzealous than the WW2 Japanese Imperials and they have a vast network of underground tunnels that pass through mountains and other terrain. Not to mention that Korean terrain is much more treacherous than the deserts of Iraq - Korea is filled with mountains and sloping landscapes and cold winters. Oh yea, these guys have been brainwashed and training all their lives to hate and die for their emperor-god too.

I used to live in South Korea for about ten or so years and from my time there I asked military personnel if they thought NK could overrun SK and E-6's would agree that they could. The sheer amount of infantry they have would be able to overpower the DMZ especially since they'd launch a surprise attack initially. The amount of artillery and anti-aircraft weaponry they have would be a formidable defense against our allied air support and the terrain would be another formidable opponent to conquer. Their armor, while outclassed by allied tanks, would still be another factor to handle especially since they too are high in number.

NK wouldn't be able to sustain a new Korean War without the help of its allies however they definitely have the manpower to overwhelm Korea and the potential to kill millions of civilians and military personnel. However the nonsense that they'd be toppled over in a "few hours" or "days" is naive at best even given the most optimisitc of situations in our counter-attack plans.

EDIT: This is not Iraq and this is not a military whose personnel knows anything about the outside world except to hate it. The NK military is a much more formidable opponent than the French-like Iraqis.

Hey people novel idea here, why not agree to disagree?
Otherwise somebody gonna hurt sombody.

Yeah, and in doing so we demolished the infrastructure of a nation and ensured the deaths of over a million people. Had we gone into Iraq, deposed sadaam, and actually done our nationbuilding job well rather than feth it up

Its really hard to build a nation while the drive trucks full of explosives into your newly built buildings, suicide bomb markets, and kill people seen to be co operating with the western powers.

The snipers arn't that fun either. (Warning, that vid will be rather offensive to many people, and its graphic too.)

As I have said in ever post, one million in Iraq have died. I'm sorry that you think so little of brown people that you will keep on saying things like "A few buildings fell down" and ignoring the reality.

I think your missing the point on this one. As far as I can recall they keep blowing themselves up, that at least is not Americas fault.

If blow does come to blow then NK may possibly take SK but then the International community will blow them into space.

For all of NK great military prowess,. . . how much of it works, they have 2,000 tanks- probably obselete t-72s, or t-80s at the most
how many artillery pieces would actually work

SK is highly underestimated, they could probably hold NK with some US help

I wonder how many burrowing nukes it would take to completely destroy the country?

Lets see, a 1 megaton blast kills everything guarenteed within 3.5 miles. So thats an area of 38 square miles and it needs to cover 120 540 km squared of North Korea. At a 1 megaton blast it would take roughly 2537 nukes to competely destroy that country and its ability to respond in kind. That is about one half of the US nuclear arsenal. I say go for it. It will most likely lead to millions of people dieing to the explosions than the fallout aftermath (which is really heavy cause they are burrowing) and then there is probably going to be a nuclear winter and a couple degree drop in global temperature.

So Pros; Kill NK, Scare the gak out of China/iran, re assert that the US is badass, and stop global warming.

Cons; pretty much piss everyone off in the world, millions will die in the resulting fallout radiation sickness, and many millions more will likely die of starvation once the wheat zones of the earth are forzen over/can no longer produce wheat thus leading to a global famine.

On second thought, lets just ariburst them and hope they miss on the return strike.

Nukes are a revolting weapon. They have no place in a military, they're just a sick way of killing lots of people created by a sick person.

Eh, a weapons a weapons a weapon. Dieing from a stone ax may suck less or more than being incinerated on the spot but I wouldn't know, seeing as neither has happened to me.

ShumaGorath wrote: I bet the romans didn't think much of the bretons either. I bet I sound just like a certain young emperor.

There were 'Bretons' during the early Roman Advance into Western Europe, but they were concerned with NW France (Brittany, funnily enough) and SW England, as it most logical. They didn't pose too much of a threat to Claudius, but he found it in the North. Hadrian just got fed up of trying to feth over the Caledonians, and just made a big wall.

Shumaaaaaaarrghhh wrote:

You lack of knowledge of the current state of our military is mind boggling.....

Simple logic would save you a lot of hardship here. Numeric superiority is meaningless when your foe has total and absolute air and sea supremacy. Especially when you have an ocean on both sides and have made an enemy of the entire planet. The north can't strike at any of it's would be attackers (beyond the nuke at japan, and if that dropped china would roll them up like a rug). Their only capability is overpowering the north and taking land. Even their ability to capitalize on the gains is highly suspect, especially during the whole "The planet is attacking you" thing.

Yes. Numeric Superiority doesn't help you at all when facing the combined arms of the Commonwealth Nations (i.e. British/Canadian/ANZACs basing off US territory, or Oz), and the USA. "We will bomb you back to the stone age" springs to mind as an adequate fronter -- quite truly possible. However the situations posed by Iraq make it next to impossible to carry out widespread strategic bombing, so America can't play with her beautiful toys yet.

And Japan will be too scared to help.

Now you're just making crap up.

He's is, but he's right, they won't join. It's unconstitutional in Japan.

sA

He's is, but he's right, they won't join. It's unconstitutional in Japan.

Then why were they in Iraq?

"Dad, what would a Reconstruction and Support Group do?"

"I dunno, son. Reconstruct and Support?"

sA

It was still against there constitution.

I have a feeling they made special exception due to the amount of media coverage that the kidnap and sometimes execution of Japanese citizens were getting. It would seem a low look-in for a sovereign country not to protect her people abroad, especially when this is a highly publicised war-zone -- people needed some sort of action in Japan.

Anyway, constitutions change. Straight from the horse's mouth...

Miguelsan wrote:Scratch Japan from your plans, Japan will not and can not join in a strike against NK unless attacked. For starters an offensive war, and NK going at SK again counts as one, goes against article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, already deploying 2 ships to stop pirates almost brought a government crisis, so shelling the neighbourghs is verbotten. Item plus even one Japanese soldier setting foot on NK soil would be enough to make the Chinese do a 180 turn. Following the Chinese official and quite manipulated media leaves you with the feeling that 60+ years from the war Japan is still waiting for the chance to finish China and the Koreas.

At most in a Korean War redux Japan will allow the US military to use the bases as usual but can´t go further lest hell be loose upon Asia.

sA

The government found a loophole in the Constitution that, after much discussion at the Diet, allowed them to deploy "non-combat" troops and only in reconstruction and humanitarian roles helping the iraqis. Formally they could not even support other allied troops in a combat situation. And that was with a strong and popular (for Japan) PM, with the current ones the deployment of troops will be almost impossible.

M.

Didn't the last PM try and put the ability to declare war back into the constitution or something like that?