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It's easy to be blinded by the doom and gloom.

Especially since games are a frivolous expense and likely to be cut as the economy turns sour.

But at the same time a good economy and ever-rising rants killed a lot of gaming venues, comic shops and other low-margin businesses.

A bad economy might lead to lower rents, bright people with time on their hands and (God willing) severance packages and more shops or companies opening up.

I dunno.

Any thoughts?

The wee man is going to suffer, sadly they always do (decreaed revenue, costs rising in other sectors) but the more established chains ought to be able to ride out okay. Provided they can survive the initial wave of closures, they are likely to pick up business from those who were less fortunate/prepared.

Right now I'm not worried. I've heard little about layoffs, and a friend of mine just had two job offers at the same time, one with a huge increase in pay. I suspect that things WILL get worse later on, but for now things seem okay.

in my town, the effect is easy to see. The official GW shop is closing next month
:(

Most people working in sales or a commission based job will feel the hurt the most. There are a few people I work with that have had their monthly income almost cut in half due to it.

Luckily though I don't work in sales. I still buy models just the same, and are even promoting 40k to a local shop to pick it up and start gaming. In fact, due to the drop in gas prices I might even say that I have more money for 40k.

Think GW will ride out the storm fine. In the UK, the VAT Cut has actually meant a small decrease in prices (which has kind of ruined GW's rounded pricing method). Although it only represents a few pence at best, it's better than an increase.

I give the chances of GW surviving as a going concern to 2010 as 1 in 5 at best. Lots of hanger on businesses are going away in the next twelve months.

GW might well see a slight upswing. In harder times, people seem to rally round their Hobbies. This isn't just idle speculation either, it's an observance made by the markets.

After all, GW stuff provides reasonable value for money to those active in the hobby. With people curtailing spending on nights out, they will indulge their hobby more, thus, you can spend £40 on a night out, and have a hangover, or the same money on some miniatures, and add a new unit or two to your existing force which you can use time and again. Same goes for fishing and other time intensive hobby's and past times. When going out is less of an option, anything with an upfront cost then unlimited usage comes to the fore.

Frazz, I think you're being a little sceptical there. There cuts have already gotten them into profit, and I believe there are more to come. Sure, they have debts, but nothing terribly significant. They were wise enough only to buy their machines when their was cash in the kitty to pay for them, rather than going on the never-never.

They will survive for some time to come!

For me, not a thing! I'll wear my coat more indoors and make beans on toast a regular meal.

They pulled through the last few economic downturns in england and the US alright, but this ones a different animal. Only time will tell if the cost cutting measures they enacted earlier are enough to keep them afloat. It would be sad to see the miniatures gaming industry die off as a result of all this.

If GW is smart, they will use the downturn in consumer spending money to really put the screws to Rackham, PP, and the other new kids with high-priced toys.

Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:GW might well see a slight upswing. In harder times, people seem to rally round their Hobbies. This isn't just idle speculation either, it's an observance made by the markets.

After all, GW stuff provides reasonable value for money to those active in the hobby. With people curtailing spending on nights out, they will indulge their hobby more, thus, you can spend £40 on a night out, and have a hangover, or the same money on some miniatures, and add a new unit or two to your existing force which you can use time and again. Same goes for fishing and other time intensive hobby's and past times. When going out is less of an option, anything with an upfront cost then unlimited usage comes to the fore.

Frazz, I think you're being a little sceptical there. There cuts have already gotten them into profit, and I believe there are more to come. Sure, they have debts, but nothing terribly significant. They were wise enough only to buy their machines when their was cash in the kitty to pay for them, rather than going on the never-never.

They will survive for some time to come!

All those statements are true. Note though, this is an extremely high priced hobby. Much of that data leans on cheaper hobbies and entertainment that is relatively inexpensive. I know as a parent I've cut back and wouldn't support the big outlays required for this game.

No, true, but there are people still coming into the Hobby. I've had far more praise for the hobby than grumbles about the price from the parents I served way back when!

And you're right the price is high, but compared to buying the little bleeders new Console Games every month, the parents in my experience are more inclined towards GW stuff. Mind you, that should be said for all Hobby Games, as they all have the same parental appeal of increasing reading, arithmetic are at their core, patience is needed etc.

Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:No, true, but there are people still coming into the Hobby. I've had far more praise for the hobby than grumbles about the price from the parents I served way back when!

And you're right the price is high, but compared to buying the little bleeders new Console Games every month, the parents in my experience are more inclined towards GW stuff. Mind you, that should be said for all Hobby Games, as they all have the same parental appeal of increasing reading, arithmetic are at their core, patience is needed etc.

Thats no longer an appropriate paradigm. Parents aren't going to be buying little Johnnie a new console game every month either. Total spending on frills will be down substantially this year.

True enough again, but even so, with a social hobby like GW, there is more incentive to spend the money there. Hell, instead of buying them models for a month, build them a board, a fun father/son endeavour, and as many have pointed out from the threads about the Lay-Zee Board GW have released, relatively cheap to do.

Again you are potentially correct.

Unless I get laid-off, my spending will be unaffected be The Souring Economy. Of course, I only budget myself $5 per week for discretionary spending, only some of which goes to GW. I don't think that I can keep John Blanche, Jes Goodwin, et al afloat all by myself!

Well, I've recently been made redundant unfortunately, so until income comes back no purchases. I'm messing with D'n'D instead since that's all in my head, and therefore cheaper.

Personally I will buy carefully with a long therm prespective instead of the flavour of the month... but In Portugal almost all stores closed and the ones still open are going down the drain.

It's bad because I recently started planning a squat army.
Damn my hide.

Da Boss wrote:Well, I've recently been made redundant unfortunately, so until income comes back no purchases. I'm messing with D'n'D instead since that's all in my head, and therefore cheaper.

Couldn't you just game with the minis you already have, too?

Oh, and that of course. Nothing stops me doing that.
And since I have bajillions of unpainted things, I'll paint too.

Round here spending on gaming and the popularity of the hobby is going up if it's doing anything, to be honest are lot of people are sticking two fingers up to the doom and gloom mongering from the press and just carrying on as normal. Also, GW has a pretty awesome release line up scheduled for the next few months which people will support them for. There might be a swing from store purchases to online purchases by savvy shoppers saving money, but people are still going to be spending money.

There are a lot of people who's wages and jobs won't be affected by the downturn, but who will feel the benefits of cheaper bills and petrol etc... and will actually end up with more money in there pockets at the end of the month, especially compared to the last six months or so when petrol was sky high.

Da Boss wrote:It's bad because I recently started planning a squat army.
Damn my hide.

Bob Olley scrunts are quite affordable mate

I know, that's what started it!
Lovely models too.

being at the cutting edge of this (working in a shop) i can say i'm worried as a minion- but at the same time understand the ideas that will keep GW afloat-

its a niche market that is relatively insensitive to macro-economic pressures... not immune- but doing well enough to stay afloat if things continue with the current trend...

It could hurt, stores could close, things could go weird- but I think the hobby will surivive due to some of the points others have made- the longer term investiment type scenario

@Da Boss Indeed... so cool looking little fellas, going to get some next year ( hes going to make more Pirates and Psychic Mutants).
I hope he can survive the recession also, this year it was a bit on its toes, glad he's back in business...

Here's a thought, it may impeed GW's ability to invest in new models and artwork. So we may see more new rule books that recycle existing products like Space Wolfs, Chaos legions etc and less that require lots of new molds and sculps.

In theory GW is (as has been said) less vulnerable to recession than many, being a "toy" company. However it is not invulnerable, and if the recession is as deep and as long as some are predicting it will be, they will suffer in due course alongside everyone else.

Two other things to consider.

1/ GW is highly leveraged. Companies with a lot of debt on the balance sheet are suffering from increase attention of the banks at the moment. Whatever else they will find it harder, and more expensive to extend their loans if they need to. So significant new investment will be unlikely as it may be less affordable.

2/ The future is VERY uncertain. Companies are playing it safe and not taking any risks as this recession has rewritten many rules and no one is able to see around the corner. For instance, many pundits are predicting DEflation in the US and UK. Which could have all sorts of difficult implications for manufacturers and retailers, as well as good ones for those consumers left in work.

But for their size, they don't have a huge amount of debt.

The loans they have, to the best of my knowledge are only recent, and mainly to pay dividend. All the machines are fully owned by the company, as is the Lenton HQ (I don't know about the Maryland one, but going on previous form, I'd imagine it's owned as well, rather than leased).

Like any company, a recession can still hump them, but they are in about as good a position as you could want right now, as they are already enacting streamlining policies etc.