"Thinking that tournament lists are representative of the overall playerbase is a mistake."
I don't think I suggested this. Still, human nature being what it is, even the most fluffy-minded among us gets tired of getting tabled by turn 2 every game. And even the casual among us would like to enter a local tournament now and again and not embarrass ourselves.
" Most players are a lot more casual than Dakka."
After trying to track a few of the "discussions" here (this one,notably), I sure hope so. I took up wargaming all those long years ago to connect with my son and spend time with my friends who loved the hobby, not engage in rules argument with crazed folks.
"The other thing is, unpopular at tournament level or not, if that was a problem to GW (unlikely) the answer is not in a million years going to be cutting them from the game, they would just make them more useful. They don't even need to release a dex to do it anymore."
Not sure if I get your tack here, but I think this seems reasonable? Or you are expecting GW to be reasonable? These are the people who axed the Old World, right? I have about 8k of very nicely painted Warriors of Chaos waiting for a new home because of that decision.
"Also, how popular are Primaris marines at a tournament level? Theres no reason at all to think they will replace the vanilla marines rules as a dex entry imo."
I can't answer this. As others have said there will most likely be many new Primaris units released than SM squat releases if GW holds true to form. It's just Age of Sigmar on a smaller scale. Expect rule changes to follow, I imagine. Mind you, I don't want this with 6k of Ultramarines and am not certain of this either, but you know GW...
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