PP hot on the heels of GW

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**budro**

The UPC point is an interesting one. Depending on the store they might very well have that data at their fingertips. But only if they use scanners to ring up their merchandise. a lot of FLGS's don't. Scanner tech is a rather high business expense and can be quite time consuming to set up if you didn't start your business with it in place.

I too would like to see the numbers and methodology of the survey before I could just say I completely trust the article. even a simple stat of the significance of the numbers would help prove to me that some kind of statistical method was used.

**Frazzled**

Its relevant in that this survey is being used to proffer that warmachine is catching up. You have to add in total sales to make any sort of reasonable guesstimate, else its a beauty compeitition form only one channel in the industry. You need GW sales, Walmart / other major retailer sales, and internet sales. Now if you limit the statement to "top 5 games in popularity from FLGS's" then this information would be more on point. But frankly FLGS's are continuing to decline so its not a comparable figure absent other information.

**mikhaila**

Posted By Gubs on 03/29/2007 10:02 AM
You all are asking for evidence, but are pretty quick to dismiss the results and condemn the methodology without any evidence to support your opinions about it either.

1) Well, for me, I'd think that having seen this type of survey done at least 50 times in the 20 years I've been retailing would count for something.

2) Having a masters degree in Statistical Theory, and knowing how the data should be collected, and what you need for a sample size to make it valid, also help me form an opinion.

3) Knowing sales numbers that have been given to me by manufacturers and distributors gives me some direct information to help form an opinion. Take it how you will, as I won't be quoting those numbers in a public forum .

As to the methodology, the type of survey uses ranking as it's criteria, with the underlying assumptions a large sample size representing the population, and that the ranking within the samples will have a roughly normal distribution. The question that the survey answers is also important to look at:

"What are the top selling games at independent game stores that bothered to fill out a survey?" is different from

"What games have the highest sales in dollars in the US?" (I assume US since I doubt they called anyone outside of it.)

Hordes could easily rank high in the first survey, if out of the 20 stores surveyed it sold better than WFB in 11 of the 20. It could do so even if the amount of Hoardes sold in the US was only 1% of the sales of WFB. (Or 10%, or 50%, or 300%.)

**mikhaila**

Posted By Furious on 03/29/2007 12:26 PM
Until then, I really appreciate mikhaila's time and information on how the real retail world works. By the way mikhaila (and anyone else who may have knowledge of this stuff), are there any resources for the current state of the gaming industry? Would GAMA have that info? Is there a game/comic retailer's association with info?

Sadly, not really, atm. Gamma does similar surveys like this, and gets similar results. There are bitz of information that turn up, such as the sales from one distributor or another, such as Diamond, Alliance, or ACD. That shows you how the pie looks from their veiwpoint. I get a large amount of retailer to retailer info from industry forums that I am on, and a lot of info from talking to manufacturers directly.

Interestingly, even answering some questions are tough. How many game stores in the US gets numbers from 1000 to 7000, depending on who you talk to, and how you define the term 'game store'.

I'll do some digging, see what the latest surveys of any type are, and through some stuff out, as people seem interested.

**Bane Lord Tarturas**

while my data isnt all that extensive i can say as of late if you walk in to my lgs you are alot more likely to see and or play hoardes or warmachine than 40k

course your more likely to get hit by a falling satelite in the store than see a game of warhammer fantasy going on

**two heads talking**

and i think that is the point that mikhaila is pointing out..

**G.I.Journalist**

If Privateer Press is actually overtaking Games Workshop, I suspect the reason is the aggressive local support that PP provides. I haven't seen the same level of campaign, league, or demonstration support from Games Workshop in some time. Real competition from another company may drive GW to reevaluate their sales and marketing strategy.

**neo.dorsia**

Posted By G.I.Journalist on 03/30/2007 11:59 PM
If Privateer Press is actually overtaking Games Workshop, I suspect the reason is the aggressive local support that PP provides. I haven't seen the same level of campaign, league, or demonstration support from Games Workshop in some time. Real competition from another company may drive GW to reevaluate their sales and marketing strategy.

Don't know about you but every time I go into a GW store I'm asked at least once if I would like a demo game. I have never been offered a demo game of WM or Hordes at an independent retailer. I guess GW Conflict tourneys, Games Days and global web campaigns count for nothing? I would be shocked if PP's turnover was even a 10th of GW's.

**carmachu**

Posted By neo.dorsia on 03/31/2007 1:47 PM

Don't know about you but every time I go into a GW store I'm asked at least once if I would like a demo game. I have never been offered a demo game of WM or Hordes at an independent retailer. I guess GW Conflict tourneys, Games Days and global web campaigns count for nothing? I would be shocked if PP's turnover was even a 10th of GW's.

Try going into a independent store and see if you get the same service. The general answer is no.

Yes they count for nothing. The global campaigns are ok, but have become jokes the last couple years. Armageeddon? Its a tie. I dont know anyone that actually played in the CoD one.

Their tournments are nice, but insular. PP's out and about at GenCon and other players. Their expanding, getting their word out.

What does GW do again, beyond preach to the choir? Unless you go to their store, you wont get that demo game...

**RussWakelin**

I feel the need to point out to everyone yelling "Where are the real numbers?" they are there... for sale.

ICv2 is trying to sell an annual report, which has detailed numbers. The page referenced above is a teaser to get you to buy it.

Full Details

Notice also the above link says data is gathered from major distributors (Alliance, ACD, etc) in addition to interviewing retailers. These guys seem to do it all. Based on the pricing (over $130+) I suspect this is a legiment market analysis document, not simply some random guesswork.

**mikhaila**

Actually, no, it's a lot of guesswork. They don't have industry wide numbers.

In addition, those rankings were for a period of time that included the Hoards release, but did not include Skull Pass. It wasn't an assessment for a year, just a small time period, far as I can tell.

They don't have GW, Battlefronts, or any other direct suppliers numbers. They don't have any distributors numbers, unless that distributor doesn't mind sharing its info with it's direct competitior, Diamond/Alliance. They aren't taking sales numbers from all independents, or even a large number.

ICV2 puts out its "guide to games" , "guidesl to comics", "guides to manga" etc., on a fairly regular basis. They get some numbers from Diamond/Alliance, call up some people in the industry, call around to a few shops, then lump it together and do a top5, or top 10 ranking.

Take them with a large grain of salt.

**Bane Lord Tarturas**

the problem with this kind of thing is that it is not in everyonesw best intrest to have these numbers published

so the numbers wont ever be truly accurate

**Witterquick**

Posted By Bane Lord Tarturas on 03/29/2007 9:00 PM
while my data isnt all that extensive i can say as of late if you walk in to my lgs you are alot more likely to see and or play hoardes or warmachine than 40k

course your more likely to get hit by a falling satelite in the store than see a game of warhammer fantasy going on

The problem with this kind of anecdotal evidence (and I'm guilty of whipping it out from time to time too to prove a point) is that it is like the blind men looking at the elephant. Every gaming store has its devotees who play at the store, run events, etc. that make that particular game look great. My FLGS played up old school Battletech and some WW1 flying game. If I just went with what I saw played in store, I wouldn't think PP was doing anything right now.

I had a long conversation with a friend who owns a gaming store in Columbus and I asked him what people were playing. He talked about how Infinity was really catching on because one of his guys was running demo games, and how GW products were still in slight decline but still a staple. But he said wryly that the real answer to the question was "World of Warcraft." I think that this is pretty typical for how the entire business is going right now: stores trying to subsidize flagging sales of classically well-selling products by finding popular new brands to appeal to their patrons. But at the end of the day, the entire industry is being hamstrung by an growing appeal of outside-of-industry products eating up recreational dollars.

**Hellfury**

Posted By Witterquick on 04/02/2007 4:19 PM
But at the end of the day, the entire industry is being hamstrung by an growing appeal of outside-of-industry products eating up recreational dollars.

Damned whippersnappers and their new fangled videe oh games. I blame Malfred.

**Witterquick**

Posted By Hellfury on 04/02/2007 4:37 PM

Damned whippersnappers and their new fangled videe oh games. I blame Malfred.

I'm trying to keep my own grognard tendencies to a minimum. I do have a copy of "The Sword and the Flame" that I keep looking at around here somewhere (next to my copy of "Rogue Trader"

.

**Asmodai**

Re: World of Warcraft

I don't think it's eating up recreational dollars. It's pretty cheap. The cost of a single Land Raider will buy you 3-4 months of WoW.

The issue of more one of available time than one of money. (Though the lower cost of WoW may be a factor in this.)

**Toreador**

WoW has grabbed quite a few of our Saturday night gamers, and those gamers aren't gaming and therefore aren't buying things. It's not that they compete, but when every moment of downtime is spent in a game world, you aren't doing much else.

and then you have the endless computer upgrades. The wide screen, the video cards, the memory...

**Osbad**

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I don't understand is why WoW is considered more of a threat to the gamining industry than previous computer games were. OK so its a MMORPG (or whatever the initials are supposed to be

), but does that make much of a difference?. Computer games have been around for well over two decades now, and in whatever format they have been pretty absorbing of free time: I remember spending entire vacations playing Elite on my sister's mate's Commodore 64 when I was a teenager back in the Dark Ages. When the first Gameboy and Sega handheld games consoles came out in the early '90's there was a whole new generation of electronic gamers created with that craze as well. Other products - PS2, Xbox, whatever, yadda yadda yadda, had similar "boost" effects, which lasted varying periods of time before they became "old hat". Surely this is not a new phenomenon for the gaming industry?

To me it just sounds like an excuse for lack of innovation in attempting to capture the attention of the more fickle end of the gaming market. Core gamers will always buy models from one company or another if they are good enough and cheap enough. The "non-core" end of the market has always had distractions to prevent them buying if the wargaming offer wasn't enticing enough. I don't see WoW as being any different - if WoW hadn't come along, it would have been something else, surely?

Or am I missing something here? Is WoW (and other MMORPGs) truly a radically different beast somehow because of the increased "interactive" element to their offering?

**malfred**

7 million players.

EDIT: Or rather, accounts.

**Toreador**

And it sucks souls. No, really. I don't remember knowing too many people before that lost jobs and relationships over Civilization or Doom. It is almost like an addiction. It's hard to get some of the people I know out of their houses because of WoW, and then they are like a heroin addict all night needing a fix. It is crazy stuff.

I know how bad it is. I used to play EQ, but I still liked doing things outside of it.

**Mannahnin**

They're not kidding, Osbad. 7 million accounts are being actively maintained and paid for month after month. Not just 7 million individual purchases of the software. The level of graphic detail and interactivity in this thing are LIGHT YEARS ahead of the games you and I grew up with. And the games (Everquest largely started it, WoW has pretty much perfected it) are built to reward CONSTANT play. The player/character's power and influence are directly commensurate with the amount of time spent playing it, and when you reduce your time playing you fall behind the pathologically obsessive people in power. People spend more time on the game than they do at work. It's easy to start playing, and it doesn't require you to schedule time with your friends to meet someplace- you can always play alone, or join a guild and have adventuring partners available 24/7, or schedule with real-world friends if you feel like it. But you don't need them.

Add in directly competitive features, such as rankings for the most kills in a faction on each server for the people who love player vs player, and you have people who are usually very high-functioning all of a sudden calling in sick to work when they have a big raid or spending less time with their kids because their guild needs their attention. I know multiple people like this, and at least half the people who have dropped out of GW gaming in my area are regular players of MMORPGs.

I know two guys who have had to quit the game cold turkey because the time investment required by it caused problems with their family life.

**IGfan**

In a normal computer game you play it, watch the credits, then put it in the shelf. If it's one of the greats like Civ or UFO then you might play it more times.

In WoW there is no end. You need to get a "better" weapon or pieces of armour so you can fight the "tougher" enemy ad nauseum. There is no final boss. Since the company's profit is based on time investment, they need you to keep your account open as long as possible. Big raids take many hours and if you want to be in a "successful" guild your time investment will be truly staggering. Think of a second job.

I do not understand the social, psychological or physical reasons for addiction to such games as EQ or WoW, but they are there and need to be studied carefully as to some people their effect is similar to a drug addiction.

How does this affect the wargaming hobby? Well, if one is addicted to WoW then they do not play 40k or Warmachine nor invest in it anymore. With a miniature army, that is it. You have a set rulebook and a set army. In WoW you can get the "Perfect Sword of Kickass Stats" and then earn bragging rights for it.

**Mannahnin**

As for the actual TOPIC of the thread, thanks again to Mikhaila for shedding light on the shoddy methodology and lack of real valid statistical data behind this thing.

While at my local store it appears that PP is eating GW's lunch, that does not necessarily make it so nationally, or even regionally. The store which runs the big WM league locally just shortened their hours, and the one two towns over which has an active 40k league has not. Are the two data conclusive evidence about which game is doing better? Of course not. But they are interesting.

**Frazzled**

Posted By Mannahnin on 04/03/2007 8:58 AM
They're not kidding, Osbad. 7 million accounts are being actively maintained and paid for month after month. Not just 7 million individual purchases of the software. The level of graphic detail and interactivity in this thing are LIGHT YEARS ahead of the games you and I grew up with. And the games (Everquest largely started it, WoW has pretty much perfected it) are built to reward CONSTANT play. The player/character's power and influence are directly commensurate with the amount of time spent playing it, and when you reduce your time playing you fall behind the pathologically obsessive people in power. People spend more time on the game than they do at work. It's easy to start playing, and it doesn't require you to schedule time with your friends to meet someplace- you can always play alone, or join a guild and have adventuring partners available 24/7, or schedule with real-world friends if you feel like it. But you don't need them.

Add in directly competitive features, such as rankings for the most kills in a faction on each server for the people who love player vs player, and you have people who are usually very high-functioning all of a sudden calling in sick to work when they have a big raid or spending less time with their kids because their guild needs their attention. I know multiple people like this, and at least half the people who have dropped out of GW gaming in my area are regular players of MMORPGs.

I know two guys who have had to quit the game cold turkey because the time investment required by it caused problems with their family life.

So in other words, nature is self selecting out those not fit to survive and breed? Hail WOW replacing savanna lions since 1997... >

**Hellfury**

Posted By Osbad on 04/03/2007 7:56 AM

Or am I missing something here? Is WoW (and other MMORPGs) truly a radically different beast somehow because of the increased "interactive" element to their offering?

I think it is Osbad.

When I am the game shop, and my buddies say "I cant stay for a game because we are having a raid at 4pm. I just stopped by to talk" then it is quite apparent that these formerly very diehard wargamers are moving towards the dark side.

I even invite them to my house to paint regularly, but that stoped becuse, you guessed it, "I cant stay to paint because we are having a raid at 4pm. I just stopped by to talk"....

Its getting kind of old, and I am becomeing quite bitter towards the game.

Here is a good example of the depth of immersion WoW gives.

www.youtube.com/watch

Not only that, but you can seperate yourselves from reality while becoming diabetic as well!

www.youtube.com/watch

Posted By jfrazell on 04/03/2007 9:07 AM

So in other words, nature is self selecting out those not fit to survive and breed? Hail WOW replacing savanna lions since 1997... >

This is a nerd board so I wont feel bad for saying this:

"I tap one white mana during my second main phase and summon a savannah lion. "

**Da Boss**

Pssshaaaw.I bought WoW fearing it would be the gamer heroin that made me quit my PhD and lose my social life.But you know what? It's dull. You have no effect on anything. Cleared out the troll cave? Doesn't matter, they'll respawn in 180 seconds. Bleh. I've no interest. And "adventuring parties"? Sorry, but illiterate 11 year olds do not equal fun company for me. Nor does being challenged to a duel every four steps. Give me old fashioned D'n'D and a good game of warhammer any day.
I mean, it's not a terrible game, but wargaming is far more absorbing for me.
I really don't understand why it's such a big craze. (I haven't played it in nearly two weeks.)

**Mannahnin**

I can, and I share the exact same complaints and interests as you. I get my gaming kicks from (in order of time spent presently) D&D, Warmachine, 40k, and Warhammer.

I gave WoW a try on a friend's system, and despite the illiterates I found it enjoyable and the graphics excellent, and felt all my latent obsessive compulsive tendencies rip themselves from the oceanic floor of my subconscious and rise, Cthonically from the depths. I was probably only saved by the fact that I'm not a computer gamer in the first place- spending the money and effort on my system are so foreign to me that there really was a startup effort barrier. And thus I kept my Sanity.

**Da Boss**

Fair enough. I was far more addicted to oblivion. That, I had to get rid of. (I think having no effect on the game world bugs me a lot).
I feel really bad for the severe addicts, but I suppose they really enjoy it, so whatever.
Blizzard are raking it in.
As for the survey, I'm not sure what it's supposed to say. Without actual sales stats, you've just got subjective opinion.
But all this talk of PP and what not makes me want to go have a look anyway.

**Orlanth**

World of Warcraft is no good (from my opinon) because it is chock full of annoying children and is too cartoony anyway. I enjoyed Camelot immensely though, and have just bought Vangaurd.

The rule for playing online games is to quit for a few months every now and then. It saveas money prevents the game from becoming repetitive and preserves sanity.

**Duncan_Idaho**

Besides..... there are real character farms that create characters and sell them on ebay.... and folks buy them to imporve their standing. It´s like Second life.... and I don´t know which is worse.....