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Kill him!

The demand of FW's products has long outstriped their ability to produce it. Apoc is one of many factors to thais, but so had the increase in popularity of the game and the hobby. We see more and more delays because FW can't grow fast enough.

If I were FW, I would be looking into the fesability of setting up a resin foundry in the Americas. I'm not saying it will happen, but I DO know they have both Pewter foundries and plastic factories there for standard GW product, so it might make sense to produce their resin products in the Americas too.

I dont think Forge World was ever intended to be a mass producing arm of GW , I remember at the time that the idea was announced ,that they were basicly a test bed for ideas and to make a special limited number proffessional models and some scenery pieces.

I hope GW learn from this current hiccup and learn that if they had bothered to release the FW models in plastic or metal in the first place we would buy them in vast numbers ! Why o why they think people would not spend stupid amounts of cash on a plastic titan,flyer or super heavy is beyond me?

I know loads of people who still will not buy from forgeworld because they have not seen the goods in the flesh and in a store.Its crazy i know but stores still have a part to play in the hobby and why GW never kept a small amount of FW stock in its stores can only be because of some tax or legal break that they are keeping quiet about.
Some players dont bother going to open days or golden deamon , some people simply go to the stores on a lunch break or a weekend , buy what they need and go home and play with a group of friends.I for one stayed wel clear of Forge world models for years until i saw my brothers winged hive tyrant from FW , After spending the best part of an hour looking at the detail and how amazing the model was i went home and placed my first order (Eldar night wing) but if i had not seen a model in the flesh i wouldnt have placed an order.

But maybe that is the point , maybe the lack of stock isnt a case of forgeworld cant keep up with production (they only need to hire more people and train them to pour resin after all), maybe GW dont want FW to become huge, maybe they would prefer if FW was kept small and low key so not to affect GW business too much? Or more importantly over shadow it.

I don't think they could over-shadow GW's main business though. Remember the economics of casting in resin vs casting in plastic. Even if Forgeworld has a particular product in such demand that it's back-ordered for months, I doubt they'd sell enough eventually to have made it more profitable to go with plastics.

Obviously there are exceptions, like the Baneblade, but for every Baneblade kit there's a Pirahna kit that probably hasn't paid for its tooling yet.

Maxis Lithium wrote:The demand of FW's products has long outstriped their ability to produce it. Apoc is one of many factors to thais, but so had the increase in popularity of the game and the hobby. We see more and more delays because FW can't grow fast enough.

If I were FW, I would be looking into the fesability of setting up a resin foundry in the Americas. I'm not saying it will happen, but I DO know they have both Pewter foundries and plastic factories there for standard GW product, so it might make sense to produce their resin products in the Americas too.

That would make sense, and would likely allow for greater sales in the US (lowering pricing due to no dollar/pound conversion).

I would buy a Tau Orca in polystyrene for £100. I don't know if Forge World could bang it out that cheap.

Nurglitch wrote:I don't think they could over-shadow GW's main business though. Remember the economics of casting in resin vs casting in plastic. Even if Forgeworld has a particular product in such demand that it's back-ordered for months, I doubt they'd sell enough eventually to have made it more profitable to go with plastics.

Obviously there are exceptions, like the Baneblade, but for every Baneblade kit there's a Pirahna kit that probably hasn't paid for its tooling yet.

The Piranha is maybe not the best example as they have sold tons in the polystyrene version -- it is a popular model for Tau players. From this view Forge World did their job of R&D to create a successful new kit.

Of course the Pirahna needed to be in the codex with official rules in order to become popular. Apoc legitimised the Baneblade. I think they would have sold a lot fewer without Apoc.

The Tetra would sell tons too but it's *too good* to be released. Tau players would lap up a fast attack choice of a cheap, highly mobile markerlight platform that looks slick and offers good opportunities for conversion -- instead we got the SkyRay.

Maxis Lithium wrote:The demand of FW's products has long outstriped their ability to produce it. Apoc is one of many factors to thais, but so had the increase in popularity of the game and the hobby. We see more and more delays because FW can't grow fast enough.

Resin is a fickle material in that respect. Casting it is such a hands-on process that you can't increase volume in the same way as with plastics. And you I don't think you can automate production, either. It needs human intervention in every stage of the process. For example, as I understand it, the moulds FW uses are so much softer than the parts in them that you need to be really careful when removing parts or you rip the mould to shreds. The smaller parts themselves are pretty fragile, too, as anyone who's owned a FW infantry model can attest to. Also, since they degrade so fast, you need human eyes to constantly check whether the mould is still good for another cast or needs to be replaced.

For what it's worth, I don't think mass-producing resin has worked too well for anyone else, either. A local online retailer tried to contact Old Crow to get their models, and was replied that they couldn't sell to retailers because they can't cope with any increase in demand.

Personally, I believe Forge World is very close to the precipice of becoming unviable. Since I do not think demand for their products is going to go away anytime soon, I suspect they'll do one of two things, either declare a freeze on new orders, or raise prices to reduce demand. Neither prospect is appealing. Another possible eventuality would be to freeze all new releases and devote all of their time and personnel towards clearing the backlogs, but somehow, I think this too is unlikely. They're simply too famous for their own good.

Agamemnon2 wrote:Personally, I believe Forge World is very close to the precipice of becoming unviable. Since I do not think demand for their products is going to go away anytime soon, I suspect they'll do one of two things, either declare a freeze on new orders, or raise prices to reduce demand. Neither prospect is appealing. Another possible eventuality would be to freeze all new releases and devote all of their time and personnel towards clearing the backlogs, but somehow, I think this too is unlikely. They're simply too famous for their own good.

Third possibility is they go the way of Black Industries.

kitsandbits wrote:
I know loads of people who still will not buy from forgeworld because they have not seen the goods in the flesh and in a store.Its crazy i know but stores still have a part to play in the hobby and why GW never kept a small amount of FW stock in its stores can only be because of some tax or legal break that they are keeping quiet about.

Is this the VAT exploitation I sometimes hear about? The fact that out-of-country orders should NOT be charged this but they include it in the price anyway?

Abby wrote:Third possibility is they go the way of Black Industries.

If that means a more competent resin kit producer picks up the slack, that would be awesome.

I know the feeling of wasting a Sunday going to a place to purchase something but getting nothing in the end...

but what makes my day is the plastic ork battlewagon. As an new ork player (juz started ork n 40k this Jan), I'm so glad that GW finally show some love for da orks after all the years. Already confirmed are boss zagstukk, plastic gretchins, nobz, warboss, new buggies/trakks/koptas, and now we have the battlewagon!!

axiom wrote:

On the other hand, when FW first advertised the Open Day, they accepted pre-orders for stuff. You never know, perhaps going that route might have been more fruitful.

I also think perhaps that plenty of other people attending the event including myself, didn't go just to buy FW kits at the last minute, but also to have an amble round WW, see the forthcoming models, speak to the very chatty and friendly designers, perhaps take part in or watch a cool demo game and generally mingle with other gamers.

Admittedly, if the sole purpose of your day was to buy kits, then you did indeed have a poor return, but then you also set yourself narrow expectations.

I do however agree on one point, FW really need to improve their sales stalls at events and get some resin casters working overtime. When I left at 2.30pm, the queue was still at least 20 people long

I was under that same assumption. that if you pre-ordered your items for the Open Day event, they would have it ready for you, but if you didn't pre-order it, the kits were first come, first serve.

I am unsure why ForgeWorld doesn't bring more items to events anyways. I guess they like to say, sorry, we have none in stock and you can wait 5 weeks. Since FW knows of each and every event they are going to, either they don't care for the profit they lose every time they tell someone "sorry, you will have to wait weeks" or, they just like to wait 5 weeks for said profit to come rolling in. Sounds like the OP had cash to burn and unfortunately by the time they will be available, the OP might have other things to spend money on.

This is such bad business, any way I look at it.

The "raise prices to reduce demand" idea just might actually work for a little while. If demand drops to levels where they can meet it while still maintaining their output, they'll be able to increase their profit margin, but how long can it last before people get fed up and look elsewhere in larger numbers?

They really should think about growing a little.

The "Raising prices to reduce demand" idea will only work as long as the price is lower than buying your own resin+silicone mix kit.

stonefox wrote:

Abby wrote:Third possibility is they go the way of Black Industries.

If that means a more competent resin kit producer picks up the slack, that would be awesome.

This is impossible. Games Workshop would never allow a third party to produce miniatures based on their trademarks and IP. Also, I am not convinced any other resin kit producer could do better, for reasons outlined above.

Whilst I foolishly turned up to the Biggest Games Workshop shop, which sits ontop of its entire production facility, in order to buy stuff on the day, and leave with nothing, my friend had another issue.

He'd pre ordered his 4 super heavies, 2.5 weeks before the show. After paying £36 ($72) for a 4 hour National Express Coach trip from Cambridge to Nottingham, he turned up at the 'open' day to find me in the queue. Not willing to spend 50 mins in the queue, he waited until the end of the day, confident, that his pre ordered stuff was there behind the stand. Upon collection "Sorry mate, were out of stock, there is anywhere between a 4 to 6 week wait for your items". He left swearing various at an unsympathetic Tony Cottrell for wasting his day, wasting £36 on a National Express Coach, and the 4 hour return Jouney he'd now have to endure, with no models.

If you wanted any other faction other than Imperial, then it was there.

And the wait on the Reaver was being quoted as +9 weeks.

Someone on here pointed out the main reason for everyone at the show was to meet the designers. Maybe thats why there was a 50 minute queue to buy the non-existent models, and no queue whatsoever to speak to the designers, who sat there most of the day looking bored and talking amongst theirselves.

I think I've become very bitter and twisted about Forgeworld.

That really, really sucks man. Sad to hear they didn't have anything you wanted.

However, thanks for taking all those pictures, and providing us with the news.


Just one note about resin production though: Battlefront, the company that makes Flames of War, does all it's vehicle and tank hulls in resin. I realize that Battlefront is not as big a company as Games Workshop, but they do seem to be gaining in popularity, and I've personally never had had a problem with getting stock, nor have I heard of anyone who had a problem or a long wait. Of course, they are most likely much bigger than Forge World.

But I don't know if all of FW's difficulties can be blamed on the fact that their minis are produced in resin.

You know, just sayin'.

I'm not impressed with Battlefront, not after two of my three purchases from them had serious issues (a KV-2 with a warped turret and a whole stack of five SU-76s with Sherman tracks). I'm never buying anything of theirs ever again. They have the benefit of scale compared to FW, since the resin volumes per part are so much smaller, they harden faster and you can pop more of them off the same mould per week.

There's no excuse for FW not having preordered models at hand, though. At the very least they should have announced it clearly that making a preorder is not a guarantee that you'll actually get something. At which point the whole business of preordering models becomes either moot or at the very least, suspect.

The Forge World business model is cracking under the pressure. Things fall apart, the center cannot hold. It is my firm belief that by this time next year, the entire company will have collapsed under the weight of its own impossibility. Either that, or resorted to some of the strategies outlined above.

Another avenue available to them would be to cull their catalogue, announce that orders for certain models would be suspended indefinitely after a given date. They'd still keep the masters, so they could reintroduce them at a later date if they so wished, of course. Likely candidates for this would be the older Imperial superheavies, the Warhound Titan and, say, the Valkyrie. On the downside, this decision would have a backlash of titanic proportions. The wailing and gnashing of teeth across the interwebs would be ginormous

It's sink or swim time, however.

[double post, sorry]

Agamemnon2 wrote:...Likely candidates for this would be the older Imperial superheavies, the Warhound Titan and, say, the Valkyrie.

Why would they can one of their most popular items?

Why not can the terrain no one buys? Or every single non-40K thing they make.

BYE

I meant they should do a partial emergency shutdown in a last-ditch effort to cut down on incoming orders that are throttling their output and lengthening the waiting times. It'd suck, but the way things are going, I'd be gobsmacked if they can stay in business over the next year or two without instituting some major change.

Models nobody's ordering right now don't take up time in their schedule. There's either some still in stock or new ones will be cast to order if/when one arrives. It's the models that're being ordered every week that're the problem.

It's just as well that the rumored Planetstrike supplement does not appear to materialize this year, a sudden influx of orders for flyers would probably cripple them.

Heh. Didn't think about the PlanetStrike angle.

Maybe they should freeze say, the top 5 most popular models then. Say that they are no longer for sale and won't be until they've delt with the current orders. They suspend new releases (but not book releases - those damned things take long enough to come out, and they can start with a second edition of IA: Apoc, this time without the copy/past mistakes).

Also kill anything that doesn't sell, even if just temporarily. No sense in the odd order clogging up what's already a slow moving system.

BYE

I concur. Since an individual order takes about 4-6 weeks to deliver on average, I think a fairly short moratorium targeted at high-demand items would help get stuff out the door. Of course, when said freeze ended, there would be a spike in incoming orders. Unless it's expected that demand will eventually go down permanently, there's still a problem.

I also agree that non-sellers with no remaining stock should be taken offline for a while, every bit helps surely. No sense in slowing down orders for non-resin products, as those aren't in the same boat, resourcewise.

I wonder what the top 5 sellers are, actually. I suspect Imperial superheavies, Warhound Titan and Death Korps to feature prominently.

Agamemnon, it's sad to hear your experience with FOW was bad. Mine was too, at first.

See, I believed that if I got some gakky resin, I was stuck with it for a long time as I might or might not get a replacement part. FW did this to me pretty much every time I bought something, to the point I refused to buy directly from them and bought indirectly so I knew the goods were legit.

In the case of Battlefront, I've had quite a few things be incorrect. When I complain, I don't get told to feth myself. That's the GW/FW answer. I get told to kindly give them the lot number and my address. Then I get replacements sent to me. Not 4-12 weeks later like GW and FW do. Oh no, it's sent as soon as they can. Which usually means a week.

FROM NEW ZEALAND.

Battlefront provides customer service. GW and FW do not, and tell you where to stick your problem.

Hopefully that might entice you to give them a second chance. I know once I figured out Battlefront wants you to be happy because happy = more money...well, I bought every army right up in the space of a month.

Kinda funny how tightfisted I get around GW these days, what with their gakky customer service.

The point is moot, anyway. My experiences were bad, of course, but what killed my interest in the game was the scale. For me, it's just completely unworkable. I want my tanks to look more impressive. Also, historical wargames feel fairly stifling, since you're "not allowed" to do a lot of things. But that's not really the point.

Ah but at least in fow tanks are fun.

Unlike 40k world of infantry.

Resin production is limited first by the moulds at hand and the mould making process. I suspect that they may well be making more moulds right now, but who knows how long that may take.

Depending on what they're making, resin is unpleasant stuff and I wouldn't be too surprised to find out that they can just barely keep up with the mould supply normal production destroys. Leaving little for altering total production capability.

You spend the money, you get better production facilities.

Of course, given GW's cashflow has been in freefall for years...hard to say when, if ever, a subsidiary such as FW will ever get the infusion of cash when the main business needs it so badly.

The publishing arm did very well, and was liked by it's customers. They got canned.

Someday, GW will actually bring in some axemen to cull the chaff in the company. Hopefully soon.

Hasbro-Mart awaits another year or two of non-decision making to reduce the stock price juuuust enough, after all.

I attended the open day myself, and the vibe I got was that GW did not want to pour any more money into increasing production scale for Forgeworld because they believe that as soon as they do, demand will drop off and they'll be left with a bunch of employees with nothing to do. FW is badly organised as it is, it was always meant to be a garage outfit, making specialist stuff for the most hardcore of gamers, but by producing interesting and exciting stuff that mainstream GW wouldn't dare produce (side effect to this, FW produces a lot of stuff that very few people buy), coupled with ever rising GW costs, FW hit the mainstream at almost exactly the same time as Apoc came out, and it hit hard. FW is badly organised at it's heart. I've heard tales of masters being lost, and someone's Ork Battlewagon having to be pulled apart so they could take a cast of one of the components to make a new master. The fact that for this open day, they brought a long a case of the old Slaan event minis that they "found" shows how disorganised it is. Casting is going on at a massive rate it must be said - on my many visits to Nottingham HQ, the empty barrels of Smooth-On Resin out back are tantamount to this.

So here's what i think needs to happen:

1. GW send over one of their higherups in charge of metal production and master cataloguing and kick them a new arse. Indexed and Catalogued masters, backups made, and molds kept and checked regularly.
2. A full stock check. Go through every box of stuff, count it, and organise it.
3. Suspend orders. Fulfil all outstanding orders. No longer attend events until you are on track.
4. I have no idea how much time is spent on pet projects like the Manta, or Fortress Walls or Reaver titan, but scale them back. Focus on simpler, more marketable products. Any idea how much you'd sell of Pre-Heresy Marine conversion packs? Or even head sprues.
5. Tighter quality control. Better order tracking. Hire more people.
6. For the most commonly requested items, send copied-masters and moulds to America, and have someone capable cast them up there.


This is all just wish fulfilment from me of course. I really do want to see FW succeed, some of their stuff is very nice. But they constantly seem to revel in their own ineptitude, and seem unwilling to help themselves.If you have stock issues, hire more casters. Train your damned sculptors and designers, the phone guys and the cleaners to do it if you have to.

I think the ideal thing is for GW to look at FW top 10 items based on sales and produce those in plastic. You know a company is narrow minded when they hope for a part of it business to stay small rather than capitalizing on it. If FW didn't have to produce its top sellers it could produce everything else.

GW's short term vantage is so apparent rather than taking advantage of Apocalypse and revenue its bringing to FW to improve FW they wait back and hope Apocalypse blows over (to the contrary of whats best for them). The thing is with the eventual release of Planetstrike demand for FW products will only increase. When that ball drops GW will really regret not beefing up FW.