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remilia_scarlet wrote:why am I reminded of the fred durst death rumor?
Because hes on the list of people a lot of people wish were dead?
I say it's a sick joke spreading those rumours, getting people's hopes up.
I agree with you.
I've had a search through a couple of Korean news sites, a couple of them are reporting it, with headline news in some cases, although again with the same caveat that it might well just be a rumour. The big search engines (Naver and Daum) aren't mentioning it yet in their news pages, I should imagine they would wait until something more concrete.
Personally, as Forbes says I believe it is the result of some scurrilous Chinese blogger, that has been done in such a way that everyone picks up on it.
I have to say, what area is likely to be more heavily defended and secured than an Embassy, especially of somewhere like NK? That prospect alone makes it unlikely, and the fact that he has disappeared inside the embassy for a while makes it easy to substantiate the rumour.
I cannoty see why the death of Kim Jong Un would make anyone happy.
Are you hateful enough to assume that he is responsible for his families misdeeds, if so where is the evidence?
Are you naive enough to beleive with the Kim family gone we will have peace and democracy, flowers and fluffy bunnies running free in North Korea.
Best thing that can happen with this sort of totalitarianism is that it gets passed to a milder generation that manages to maintain control due to heredity. Normally this doesn't work, Baby Doc Duvalier and Tumbledown Dick come to mind. However North Korea has had three generations of communist monarchy, if Kim Jong Un survives the precedent will be well established. And no matter what people in republics might choose to think monarchies are inherently stable. Yes they can go bang,
Also the far eastern mind welcomes the authoritative ruler more than the western. The North Korean political model could not survive outside the far east.
We tend to forget that democracy is a western concept, not a global concept.
Besides we need a power vacuum in North Korea like a hole in the head.
I hope Kim Jong Un survives, maintains the status quo, keeps North Korea strong and yet does not forget his time in Switzerland and what he learned there and yearns to improve the lot of his people. Somerthing which is not synonymous with doing what the US thinks countries should do. North Korea doesn't need elections, it needs slight reform, a stable border and a bigger food ration.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
Orlanth wrote:
Best thing that can happen with this sort of totalitarianism is that it gets passed to a milder generation that manages to maintain control due to heredity.
Orlanth wrote:
Best thing that can happen with this sort of totalitarianism is that it gets passed to a milder generation that manages to maintain control due to heredity.
Like the Assads?
Try reading before you comment.
Orlanth wrote:
Normally this doesn't work, Baby Doc Duvalier and Tumbledown Dick come to mind.
Like baby Doc Duvalier and unlike Kim Jon Un, Bashar Al-Assad is a second generation dictator, you need a third generation plus for the stabilisation effect of heredity to kick in.
Besides Assad is a poor example of a poor example he ruled unopposed but quite successfully since 2000. The 'Arab Spring' is a problem beyond his control.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
I think if Kim Jon Un died of a heart attack, or choked after eating to much I would laugh for a week straight.
"The Imperium is nothing if not willing to go to any lengths necessary. So the Trekkies are zipping around at warp speed taking small chucks out of an nigh-on infinite amount of ships, with the Imperium being unable to strike back. feth it, says central command, and detonates every vortex warhead in the fleet, plunging the entire sector into the Warp. Enjoy tentacle-rape, Kirk, we know Sulu will." -Terminus
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Orlanth wrote:
Besides Assad is a poor example of a poor example he ruled unopposed but quite successfully since 2000. The 'Arab Spring' is a problem beyond his control.
Sure, if you have a highly flexible definition of "successful" and "unopposed". It isn't like there was no resistance to Assad rule until the Arab Spring rolled around.
Life does not cease to be funny when people die any more than it ceases to be serious when people laugh.
The Assads are evil! His brother Al Assad detonated a nuke in a mysterously unnamed middle eastern country. In fact i actually died that day, i Managed to stumble out of my crashed helicopter and saw only ash and giant mushroom cloud. While i died i thought for a second how cool and cinematic it all was.
On topic i think Kim jon Un looks like a very jolly young man. The newspapers published charming pictures of him a few weeks ago he was beaming his little chubby face off while being given a tour of military base.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/02/11 22:29:29
Mary Sue wrote: Perkustin is even more awesome than me!
Perkustin wrote:The Assads are evil! His brother Al Assad detonated a nuke in a mysterously unnamed middle eastern country. In fact i actually died that day, i Managed to stumble out of my crashed helicopter and saw only ash and giant mushroom cloud. While i died i thought for a second how cool and cinematic it all was.
On topic i think Kim jon Un looks like a very jolly young man. The newspapers published charming pictures of him a few weeks ago he was beaming his little chubby face off while being given a tour of military base.
I too had the same experience...
After dying i asked around, turns out a lot of people had the same experience...
He does look oddly jolly for someone who lives in North Korea...
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Orlanth wrote:
Besides Assad is a poor example of a poor example he ruled unopposed but quite successfully since 2000. The 'Arab Spring' is a problem beyond his control.
Sure, if you have a highly flexible definition of "successful" and "unopposed". It isn't like there was no resistance to Assad rule until the Arab Spring rolled around.
few if any leaders are truly unopposed. In national level politics being unopposed means having no credible opposition. So for example some elections are practically unopposed, one candidate elections are forcably and thus literally unopposed. However those to do meet with opposition, which is why there are gulags.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
Powder Burns wrote:what they need to make is a fullsize leatherman, like 14" long folded, with a bone saw, notches for bowstring, signaling flare, electrical hand crank generator, bolt cutters..
This would be amusing.... but probably not, actually. It seemed like he was doing a pretty good job too.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Grimtuff wrote:
purplefood wrote: He does look oddly jolly for someone who lives in North Korea...
That's because he either resembles Russell from Up! and/or Android 19 from DBZ.
OH MY GOD HE TOTALLY LOOKS LIKE 19! Wow, I'm mad I didn't pick that up sooner. He looks just like him/it!
Automatically Appended Next Post: Also, is it just me, or do most of those officers look like midgets? Those ugly hats and those over sized coats are NOT flattering
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2012/02/13 16:56:42
Just another day on Dakka, laughing at the political area of North Korea...
Yeah, I'm doubtful that he's been assassinated already. Not sure it would be good or bad honestly.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/02/13 17:03:39
Pretre: OOOOHHHHH snap. That's like driving away from hitting a pedestrian.
Pacific:First person to Photoshop a GW store into the streets of Kabul wins the thread.
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H.B.M.C: You can't lobotomise someone twice.
Orlanth wrote:
Best thing that can happen with this sort of totalitarianism is that it gets passed to a milder generation that manages to maintain control due to heredity.
Like the Assads?
Try reading before you comment.
Wow. I was not expecting that level of rudeness from you there, Orlanth. What's that about?
Bashar al-Assad is an example of someone many commentators thought of as a 'milder' generation. He's currently clinging to power by brutally cracking down on his people, is all.
Like baby Doc Duvalier and unlike Kim Jon Un, Bashar Al-Assad is a second generation dictator, you need a third generation plus for the stabilisation effect of heredity to kick in.
Ah, so you're moving the goalposts. Cool, just tell me next time instead of being arsey.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/02/14 00:20:02
Orlanth wrote:
few if any leaders are truly unopposed. In national level politics being unopposed means having no credible opposition. So for example some elections are practically unopposed, one candidate elections are forcably and thus literally unopposed. However those to do meet with opposition, which is why there are gulags.
By "credible" do you mean "have a chance of successfully overthrowing the state" or "significant".
There has certainly been significant opposition to Assad rule, and for quite some time. You don't lay siege to a city because a few students decide to protest.
Life does not cease to be funny when people die any more than it ceases to be serious when people laugh.
Orlanth wrote:
Besides Assad is a poor example of a poor example he ruled unopposed but quite successfully since 2000. The 'Arab Spring' is a problem beyond his control.
Sure, if you have a highly flexible definition of "successful" and "unopposed". It isn't like there was no resistance to Assad rule until the Arab Spring rolled around.
few if any leaders are truly unopposed. In national level politics being unopposed means having no credible opposition. So for example some elections are practically unopposed, one candidate elections are forcably and thus literally unopposed. However those to do meet with opposition, which is why there are gulags.
I lived in South Korea for a couple of years, and got to hear various stories about the North, both from residents of the South and even a North Korean who had escaped some years previously. That there is a 'dissident' movement in the North is undeniable. Since Kim Jong Il died, the government has cracked down on various liberties that the population had previously been able to enjoy; meetings of over a certain amount of people, and even flea-markets (officially illegal under law, but the government turned a blind eye to them previously because of their necessity) have been banned. I even heard from one person that the previous rule of punishing the family of people who defect to other countries (jail and/or re-education camp) has been replaced, with a report in South Korea that some families were being shot. Finally, most recently a group of several hundred North Korean engineers were prevented from returning from the Middle East to their native country when they finished working, perhaps worried that the 'Arab Spring' would spread into their own country. Obviously, all of these are signs that the government is having to behave in such a way to squash any potential murmurings of unrest from the population.
As for the people in the North themselves, I have read of the younger generation mounting satellite dishes secretly in their houses, to watch South Korean TV*. A recent influx of many hundreds of thousands of mobile phones, supplied in a deal with the Chinese government, makes communication that much more easy. And apparently those moving in dissident circles identify themselves by folding the picture of Kim Jong Il in their newspaper.
People often comment that the entire population is just a horde of brainwashed fools, who go about nodding their head and receive the appalling punishment of the government happily. All I will say is, yes of course there is a percentage within the population that thinks like this, most commonly the uneducated, but that also their is an educated population that realises all too well the appalling position the country is in, and the subjugation of the people that is taking place. Unfortunately for the government, these people are needed for any economy to support itself beyond a agricultural level, and it is from these that change (not if, but when) will come. Perhaps the influx of technology will enable it, in the same way that it has done in the Middle East.
As for whether Kim Jong Un will survive? I think he will do well to last the next 5 years or so, and after that it will probably become easier for him. You could make the argument that his aunt (who was essentially the 'Nancy Reagan' of NK, making all important decisions after Kim Jong Il had a stroke) is probably holding most of the reins anyway, and perhaps will help ease him into power. But anyone who thinks that the various generals/party leaders around him will be content with their well-feathered nests I think needs to look at the subversive nature of power. Arguably, it will never be easier to have a 'night of the long knives' and take power than it is now, and several political commentators have pointed out the individuals who may try to do this.
As for some revolution taking place within the country and being able to take hold, I was heartened by one of the wikileak documents that was released last year. In it, in a conversation between the US and Chinese foreign offices, China commented that they would take no action to either support or impede any uprising movement within NK. You could make the argument that China has a vested interest in the North surviving (and really this subject would need a topic all of its own) but it has long been said that modern China regards NK as something an embarrassment. At a time when Chinese economical and political influence is increasing around the globe, they are a massive destabiliser to the Far East, and no doubt the newly economically carnivorous China sees a North Korea (with its doors open) as a massive and potential new market.
Anyway, I think the next year or two will be very interesting. I still keep a number of friends in Korea, so I will write any interesting updates I find in the OT section.
*Although, having spent many hours watching SK TV, this might be the reason the regime in the North survives
Just as a interesting note. They recently erected a statue of Kim Jong Il in North Korea next to one of his father. I thought that, given the rumors of Kim John Un's assassination it seemed odd that such a massively propagandic act:
Kim Jong Un was not at the ceremony attended by the rest of North Korea's core military and political leadership.
Just saw a rumour on Facebook saying that China are claiming that Kim Jong Un has been assasinated. I can't find any source for this with google, does anyone know anything more, or is it just a rumour?
How come do China kills one's own goons who's yet to prove his worth?
should this rumour becomes true. Does China really wants Unified Korea?
10 years ago, with a far more insular China I might have said yes. Nowadays, I'm not so sure. China is, much like the rest of the world, bombarding Asia with the goods it produces and North Korea could be another potentially fresh market for them. Also, I think in some ways the big industry in South Korea (the executives from whom tending to go into the Government) might not be so indisposed towards it either, despite the massive shock it might bring to the Korean economy.
Regarding China, as I said in the rather large post above, there were some documents that were released as part of the 'wikileaks' last year. Some damned interesting reading, aside from the quite amusing ones of Saudi Arabian princes asking the US ambassador "why you no attack country x yet?", there was some pretty interesting stuff regarding meetings between US and Chinese diplomats. In conclusion, and somewhat surprisingly, they have said that they won't get involved in any internal revolutions or upheavals within North Korea. The country has been something of an embarrassment to China over recent years, and the prospect of the North doing something stupid (attacking the South for instance), and then bringing massive war to the area, would pop the massive economic bubble that China is creating for itself.
Orlanth wrote:
Best thing that can happen with this sort of totalitarianism is that it gets passed to a milder generation that manages to maintain control due to heredity.
Like the Assads?
Try reading before you comment.
Wow. I was not expecting that level of rudeness from you there, Orlanth. What's that about?
Bashar al-Assad is an example of someone many commentators thought of as a 'milder' generation. He's currently clinging to power by brutally cracking down on his people, is all.
Your comment appeared flippant.
Al-assad is second generation and thus can fail easily. Heredity is not a facto as of yet.
The heredity issue was explained in my first post, its part of the Third Generation Law. Kim Jong Un can still fall, but its one extra factor that will help him stay in power, or at least will mean that anyone who takes over ought to be in the family.
Albatross wrote:Ah, so you're moving the goalposts. Cool, just tell me next time instead of being arsey.
Goalposts were in place and unmoved. Not my fault if you didnt see them. You do that by reading the posts you know.
Here for your amusement:
Orlanth wrote:
Best thing that can happen with this sort of totalitarianism is that it gets passed to a milder generation that manages to maintain control due to heredity. Normally this doesn't work, Baby Doc Duvalier and Tumbledown Dick come to mind. However North Korea has had three generations of communist monarchy, if Kim Jong Un survives the precedent will be well established.
Back to the story.
Has Kim Jong Un's status been confirmed yet? He hasnt appeared on TV which would be the easiest way of clearing this up and his fathers death was successfully concealed for a long time. So frankly anything could have happened, the whole thing could be a trick, a rumour gone viral or a brewing disaster, and its not easy to tell which.
n'oublie jamais - It appears I now have to highlight this again.
It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion. By the juice of the brew my thoughts aquire speed, my mind becomes strained, the strain becomes a warning. It is by tea alone I set my mind in motion.
