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zephoid wrote:
sigh.....

<Math class>

No, you will not destroy 4 per turn. Rather, you will get 4 explosion results on average. 400% success rate means you are generating 400% of the desired outcome. You are then applying all this fire to a single target, not 4 target. You can indeed get >100% chance to kill a single target if you are adding a number of individual attempts and are attempting to determine the probability of a result. This is statistics and probability 001. You havent even got to 101 yet.
</math class>

Now, can those ignorant of statistics please go look this stuff up instead of cluttering the thread.

I was taking the piss.

1 – ((1 - POS1) * (1 – POS2) * (1 – POS3) * (1 – POS4))

That is the calculation for cumulative probability of success.

If we assume that a hit from a Fire Dragon will kill said vehicle 50% of the time (made up number, it's almost midnight, I want some sleep), and the 10 Fire Dragons caused 7 hits then the calculation is as follows:

1-(0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5)

The answer is of course 0.9921875. Therefore you have approx a 99% chance to kill the vehicle. Not 400%, that's utterly absurd.

Now, can those ignorant of statistics please go look this stuff up instead of cluttering the thread.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Success_rate

http://www.useit.com/alertbox/20010218.html

chance of destruction vs success rate. Success rate takes into account multiple successes which you can then apply things like cover to

zephoid wrote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Success_rate

http://www.useit.com/alertbox/20010218.html

chance of destruction vs success rate. Success rate takes into account multiple successes which you can then apply things like cover to

That link is not relevant at all.

You are mixing up independent and dependent probability.

Dependent
"Bob has a red, blue, and green shoe in his drawer. If he randomly picks out a shoe three times, he has a 100% chance to get a green shoe by the third time."

Independent
"Bob has a quarter. If he flips it three times, each attempt has a 50% chance of getting heads. He does not have a 150% chance of getting heads."

That's how independent probability works. Dice always follow independent probability. Your firewarrior analogy follows the rules of dependent probability, which doesn't work here.

zephoid wrote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Success_rate

http://www.useit.com/alertbox/20010218.html

chance of destruction vs success rate. Success rate takes into account multiple successes which you can then apply things like cover to

What are you trying to convey here?

Can we all just agree that the Vulture looks Fannnn-tastic?

My god it does, i've ordered an Aircraft Punisher Cannon and it's supposed to get here in a couple of days. Really excited.
People keep forgetting that it has an extra heavy bolter that's nose mounted, so add another 2 hits onto that 17.7 already s5 hits.
19.7 s5 hits per round of shooting is amazing, like really amazing.
That's going to wreck any unit not boasting a 2+ save of any kind. It's still going to do some damage to 2+ save units, as it most likely will put up 2 wounds per turn. I'm falling in love with it actually.

All for less than a leman russ punisher, you get BS4, pinning, twin linked, vector dancer, the ability to ignore night fighting, and many more options. And it's a flier, meaning that it is pretty much untouchable compared to the russ...

All I can say is that 6th ed is the reason my group 'voted' that I wasnt allowed to field my elysians until everyone got access to more skyfire...jerks.....
Thought to be fair, facing 5 valkyries, 3 vendettas and 1-2 vultures is kinda wonky in 6th, where as it was a novelty army in 5th

If I could get one I would. Two preferably. They would be a fun addition to my Catachan army. Especially because I have a Leman Russ Punisher with three heavy bolters and a stubber... and I still need more dice.

 StarHunter25 wrote:
All I can say is that 6th ed is the reason my group 'voted' that I wasnt allowed to field my elysians until everyone got access to more skyfire...jerks.....
Thought to be fair, facing 5 valkyries, 3 vendettas and 1-2 vultures is kinda wonky in 6th, where as it was a novelty army in 5th

Field them as Fast Skimmers again that they get -2BS when they target. Boom you get to play your army.

 StarHunter25 wrote:
All I can say is that 6th ed is the reason my group 'voted' that I wasnt allowed to field my elysians until everyone got access to more skyfire...jerks.....
Thought to be fair, facing 5 valkyries, 3 vendettas and 1-2 vultures is kinda wonky in 6th, where as it was a novelty army in 5th

That's ridiculous. Standard guard can take 18 valk/vend at 2k for the same cost as we can. Not to mention taking allied Necron aircraft. Yeah. As for "enough" AA a C:SM army at 2k can take 6 Stormtalons & 2 aegis lines with quad guns. A C:CSM army can run 6 heldrakes, 2 aegis lines, plus flakk missiles. BA & GK are at a bit of a weakness but oh well, they're borderline OP anyway. Orks typically hit on 5s so a ton of lootas will not suffer much hitting on 6s but can easily wreck our birds. Admittedly I only run 2 of each valk/vend/vult plus a single sky talon.

As for vultures though, they're great. I run a TL punisher & a 4x rocket pod supporting my 2 multilaser/rocket pod valks with hb door guns & my 2 vends, kinda like Huey hogs being escorted by cobras.

 Valhalla130 wrote:
Can we all just agree that the Vulture looks Fannnn-tastic?

NO! STOP IT! MY WALLET CAN'T RESIST SMEXYNESS OF THAT MAGNITUDE.

what weapon options beyond the twin punishers (Damn sexy beast with those) and what looks like a missile and lascannon in that pic can it have? because i from what you guys are saying it's great at murdering infantry, but can it be tooled up for multi-role or dedicated anti-tank? what would be more effective?

Also, how can i include it in my guard? just add it to a list and get the book with its rules? or do i need an allied contingent as well?

It can be tooled up several ways, but the only role that isn't better provided by regular Codex IG options is the twin punisher cannons. It is a Fast Attack choice for IG, but I don't remember if it is 1-3 in a Squadron.

TBH it's not worth tooling it up for anti-tank; the Vendetta stole that job and is cheaper.

I've had excellent success with the 4x rocket pod option. But maybe that's cause with Elysians I only get pie plates from rocket pods & demo charges. It's the damn heavy bolter chin gun that lets me down every. single. time. regardless of my loadout in the hardpoints.

 Still Standing wrote:
It can be tooled up several ways, but the only role that isn't better provided by regular Codex IG options is the twin punisher cannons. It is a Fast Attack choice for IG, but I don't remember if it is 1-3 in a Squadron.

Vultures are a Heavy Support option IIRC, not FA. As mentioned, there's a whole bunch of ways to equip them, most of them come with missiles of varying types I believe, but the most common you'll find is the 2x Punisher Cannons and 4x MMRP. Vendettas do that dedicated anti-tank role better, unfortunately.

 Enigwolf wrote:
Vultures are a Heavy Support option IIRC, not FA. As mentioned, there's a whole bunch of ways to equip them, most of them come with missiles of varying types I believe, but the most common you'll find is the 2x Punisher Cannons and 4x MMRP. Vendettas do that dedicated anti-tank role better, unfortunately.

Definitely fast. I have IA:Aeronautica right here and they're fast attack for IG. Some of the variant lists FW has produced have had them as heavy support, but that was only for that one specific list.


As for anti-tank, Vendettas are great, but don't underestimate the importance of vector dancer and strafing run. Three BS 3 TL LCs into side armor is nice, but a BS 4 TL LC and two BS 4 hunter-killer missiles into rear armor is even better.

 Peregrine wrote:

 Enigwolf wrote:
Vultures are a Heavy Support option IIRC, not FA. As mentioned, there's a whole bunch of ways to equip them, most of them come with missiles of varying types I believe, but the most common you'll find is the 2x Punisher Cannons and 4x MMRP. Vendettas do that dedicated anti-tank role better, unfortunately.

Definitely fast. I have IA:Aeronautica right here and they're fast attack for IG. Some of the variant lists FW has produced have had them as heavy support, but that was only for that one specific list.


As for anti-tank, Vendettas are great, but don't underestimate the importance of vector dancer and strafing run. Three BS 3 TL LCs into side armor is nice, but a BS 4 TL LC and two BS 4 hunter-killer missiles into rear armor is even better.

I stand corrected, you're right. Elysians had them as HS rather than FA. I really love Vector Dancer, now that you mention it. However, off the top of my head mathematically speaking, I'd rather dedicate my Vendettas to anti-tank. In the local meta I play at, people either typically field a ton of vehicles or none. A single Vulture won't cut it for dedicated anti-tank for me - the HKs are one-shot. (I also have Tauros Venators with a BS3 TLLC and 4x HK for anti-tank too)

 Enigwolf wrote:
the HKs are one-shot

But you have six of them. Now that you only get to fire two missiles per turn that gives you three turns of shooting, which is a pretty optimistic number if you're facing real AA units.

 Peregrine wrote:

 Enigwolf wrote:
the HKs are one-shot

But you have six of them. Now that you only get to fire two missiles per turn that gives you three turns of shooting, which is a pretty optimistic number if you're facing real AA units.

I did forget about that one, good point. I do suppose that does turn the Vulture into a pretty reliable form of AA too, except that it doesn't get the +1 BS from Strafing Run. That being said, I can see potential in a Vulture using Vector Dancer to get in position behind enemy fliers to get potshots off at rear armor, something you can't do with MRPs to boot, though I can still see that with twin Punisher Cannons. There's enough shots being fired to potentially glance another flier to death.

Vulture = Awesome - well worth the 105 points just for the basic one.

Used in the way they are used in IA:8 as escorts for a trio of Valkryies = Super awesome

Used as an escort for a trio of Vendettas = Just roll over and DIE!

Anyone think I like them a lot?

Ross74H wrote:
Vulture = Awesome - well worth the 105 points just for the basic one.

Used in the way they are used in IA:8 as escorts for a trio of Valkryies = Super awesome

Used as an escort for a trio of Vendettas = Just roll over and DIE!

Anyone think I like them a lot?

Are you referring to them flying as escort for Valkyries tactic-wise, or did they add in the Storm Talon's escort rules to the Vulture in IA: Aeronautica?

Such a beautiful model. Cant wait to order mine so amazing, your story only strengthens my desire to get one.

Referring to it tactics wise rather than rules wise - I havent seen the new Auronuatica yet.

Would make sense for them to add the Escort rule to it though, its specifically what it's described as doing in IA:8

I'm strongly debating picking up not one, but two Vultures for Christmas just because they're that sexy...

Am I the only one that thinks the big jet turbine behind the cockpit looks kinda silly? Love the rules for it, though.

 Evertras wrote:
Am I the only one that thinks the big jet turbine behind the cockpit looks kinda silly? Love the rules for it, though.

It's ugly, but reminiscent of Harrier jumpjets. It's the distinguishing feature of Vulture gunships from Valkyries/Vendettas since their cockpit, wings, and tail look so similar. I used to think it was kinda ugly too, but it grew on me as an ugly beauty.

 Enigwolf wrote:

 Evertras wrote:
Am I the only one that thinks the big jet turbine behind the cockpit looks kinda silly? Love the rules for it, though.

It's ugly, but reminiscent of Harrier jumpjets. It's the distinguishing feature of Vulture gunships from Valkyries/Vendettas since their cockpit, wings, and tail look so similar. I used to think it was kinda ugly too, but it grew on me as an ugly beauty.

Fair enough. Kinda like the A-10. That thing is ugly as sin but I love it.

And yeah, totally agree with the need to distinguish, just wish it was a little more... I dunno, practical looking. There doesn't seem to be a lot air intake there, and in my head I just see the pilot and copilot screaming "WHAT?!" at each other over the screaming engine approximately one yard behind their heads.

 Evertras wrote:

And yeah, totally agree with the need to distinguish, just wish it was a little more... I dunno, practical looking. There doesn't seem to be a lot air intake there, and in my head I just see the pilot and copilot screaming "WHAT?!" at each other over the screaming engine approximately one yard behind their heads.

LOL. I was thinking more along the lines of a pilot thinking "I hope I don't get sucked into the intake when I eject!"

 Enigwolf wrote:

 Evertras wrote:

And yeah, totally agree with the need to distinguish, just wish it was a little more... I dunno, practical looking. There doesn't seem to be a lot air intake there, and in my head I just see the pilot and copilot screaming "WHAT?!" at each other over the screaming engine approximately one yard behind their heads.

LOL. I was thinking more along the lines of a pilot thinking "I hope I don't get sucked into the intake when I eject!"

That engine is an aerial commissar. Do your duty or get shredded!

 Evertras wrote:

 Enigwolf wrote:

 Evertras wrote:

And yeah, totally agree with the need to distinguish, just wish it was a little more... I dunno, practical looking. There doesn't seem to be a lot air intake there, and in my head I just see the pilot and copilot screaming "WHAT?!" at each other over the screaming engine approximately one yard behind their heads.

LOL. I was thinking more along the lines of a pilot thinking "I hope I don't get sucked into the intake when I eject!"

That engine is an aerial commissar. Do your duty or get shredded!

But yeah, the Valkyrie isn't much better in terms of cockpit noise. Hopefully their helmet vox sets are well dampened from external noise.