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I don't think the "if" is as important as "how" or "why" in the Op's question.

I don't personally believe GW could vanish quickly. I think they have enough to cut back on that we would see it happening over a few years. The void would fill up naturally with other companies each taking their share and GW would have a few crucial tipping points to stabilize (which I feel they would). In this scenario the industry would become more normal with a few big players (gw being among them rather than the looming giant).

There are some who believe that gw, should they go down, will collapse quickly. In this case I can see the industry really getting hurt. A huge void in the market might lead to a predatory environment of companies trying to beat each other to claim their piece of the pie. Crummy imitation products would abound. err, well more than now.

If they did quickly collapse you can be sure someone would buy them for the IP if nothing else. That doesn't mean whoever buys them will know the first thing about how to run a gaming company or that anything will get better. The next CEO appointed by the new owner may be a buffoon that digs them deeper in the whole. Or he may be a competent businessman who studies his new industry and does things well for the company.

Keep in mind though, what is best for GW, the industry as a whole, and us as fans is not all the same.

I think I should clarify my question, if GW went down how would the industry continue on?

Specifically how would new players join the hobby, since how I see it many of them start through gw then as they get older they start other games.

OR do LGS in other places regularly get young players coming in or out of their store.

I think it depends on geography. America would be fine due to their high instance of FLGS. Places like Australia would suffer as game stores in this country are like fething Unicorn tears.

I suppose some of them would form clubs if GW were to shut down.

This depends on if we'll find out the same way we find out about releases or not.

I think you might be surprised though at just how fast the independent stores would pop up to fill the void though.

I think I should clarify my question, if GW went down how would the industry continue on?

Specifically how would new players join the hobby, since how I see it many of them start through gw then as they get older they start other games.

OR do LGS in other places regularly get young players coming in or out of their store.

Same as it always has. Outside of Europe and apparently Australia (though I had actually heard that some of the cities have several independent stores...) GW is a very small player in terms of actual retail stores. In North America they have less than 5% of the stores. I think you guys have less than a dozen throughout all of Canada now. Somehow I doubt that in the entire country - those dozen stores have a significant impact on tabletop gaming in general.

Since, in all likelihood, the games themselves will survive the fall of GW - newbies could still cut their teeth on GW products. It might actually become more readily available as well.

Take for example if a company like Hasbro were to buy up GW after it collapses. One of the first things they would likely do is reissue games like Space Hulk and Talisman through the big box stores. This means that not only would you get new players through the odd foot traffic through back lot game stores - you would also get mainstream traction as parents buy the game at Walmart, Target and Toys 'R Us. Video games would still be licensed, RPGs might stay under FFG or be moved in house under WotC. Miniature production would probably be handled by the "fully formed subsidiary" Citadel Miniatures based out of Singapore. Rules for the miniatures game would likely be moved under WotC. The name Games Workshop would fade into a memory of old guys like me who remember when... In 5 years time, most people wouldn't recall who Kirby was.

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
I think you might be surprised though at just how fast the independent stores would pop up to fill the void though.

I think I should clarify my question, if GW went down how would the industry continue on?

Specifically how would new players join the hobby, since how I see it many of them start through gw then as they get older they start other games.

OR do LGS in other places regularly get young players coming in or out of their store.

Same as it always has. Outside of Europe and apparently Australia (though I had actually heard that some of the cities have several independent stores...) GW is a very small player in terms of actual retail stores. In North America they have less than 5% of the stores. I think you guys have less than a dozen throughout all of Canada now. Somehow I doubt that in the entire country - those dozen stores have a significant impact on tabletop gaming in general.

Since, in all likelihood, the games themselves will survive the fall of GW - newbies could still cut their teeth on GW products. It might actually become more readily available as well.

Take for example if a company like Hasbro were to buy up GW after it collapses. One of the first things they would likely do is reissue games like Space Hulk and Talisman through the big box stores. This means that not only would you get new players through the odd foot traffic through back lot game stores - you would also get mainstream traction as parents buy the game at Walmart, Target and Toys 'R Us. Video games would still be licensed, RPGs might stay under FFG or be moved in house under WotC. Miniature production would probably be handled by the "fully formed subsidiary" Citadel Miniatures based out of Singapore. Rules for the miniatures game would likely be moved under WotC. The name Games Workshop would fade into a memory of old guys like me who remember when... In 5 years time, most people wouldn't recall who Kirby was.

But gamers.... try mentioning Lorraine Williams to folks that remember TSR.... Then duck.

The Auld Grump

 TheAuldGrump wrote:

But gamers.... try mentioning Lorraine Williams to folks that remember TSR.... Then duck.

The Auld Grump

Only old guys like me who remember when... Most these young whipper snappers think that D&D began with 3.0 and get really confused if you explain that 3.0 was actually 2nd Edition and 3.0 from WotC would be 4.0...though that is only if you count the very first White box release as a Beta version... White Box, what?

In any case, I don't see any possible path forward for GW which would be worse than their current path. I don't think there is much cause for alarm even if they were to see the bottom fall out of their financial reports and go into bankruptcy tomorrow.

I was going to make a point about Twinkies, but then discovered that Hostess has risen from the ashes today....

Maybe burning down GW would be a good start....

The Auld Grump

If GW went down, i hope that a sensible company would buy up the IP.

But the effect on the market? not much i guess, 3rd party suppliers would have to re-think their future. Thanks to the Internet and kickstarter there are many other interesting systems on the market.

Us longtime GW gamers would mourn the end but well life goes on. I would just focus my full attention on another system, Warpath, the next Warzone, infinity...

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
I think it depends on geography. America would be fine due to their high instance of FLGS. Places like Australia would suffer as game stores in this country are like fething Unicorn tears.

We do have a lot of flgs but quite a few of them are probably only marginally profitable. Where I live I have seen more than a dozen game stores go out of business since the early nineties. On the other hand a couple have thrived since then.

If GW went down it would certainly take more than a few game stores with it, especially in smaller towns and cities. In fact it would be a terrible blow to the more successful game stores that I know of and perhaps drive them out of business. Running any small business is extremely difficult and few could survive losing a lynchpin product.

I bet enough game stores would fold in the US that there would be a ripple effect harming other game makers as well.

 Dais wrote:

Keep in mind though, what is best for GW, the industry as a whole, and us as fans is not all the same.

That's a perspective that is pervasive among businesspeople these days, and IMO it's both untrue and toxic. It is entirely possible for a business to perpetuate itself, experience modest growth, and take care of the needs and wants of their customers at the same time, indeed I would say that doing the best you can to meet the needs of your customers is the best way to ensure the former two remain true over the long term. It's only once a company and their shareholders swallow the Hayekian playbook whole and begin regurgitating nonsense about "the duty to shareholders is to make the most money possible all the time at any cost" that the problems begin.

If GW goes under, perhaps the GW community could raise a kickstarter to buy the IP?

Then maybe we could get the balanced rules and quality minis for a decent price we all would like to see...

 Vulcan wrote:
If GW goes under, perhaps the GW community could raise a kickstarter to buy the IP?

Then maybe we could get the balanced rules and quality minis for a decent price we all would like to see...

It's almost certain it wouldn't raise enough money.

And then who would own the IP? The entire community? That would lead to a nightmare of arguing.

 bigyounk wrote:
GW can bite my shiny metal @#$!

GW can bite my brittle finecast @$$.

Never happen cynical gamers will not even look at other games with out contempt

I doubt anything would happen soon.

The IP would be purchased, most likely. There would be a lengthy lag, and then a new edition would come out, along with new codecies.

Or not. Either way, the world would keep spinning.

I have enough models to play for some time.

If gw went down it would not be a loss. They would get bought out. 40k would continue. Fantasy could be easy cut.

End of the day no gw, no problem. There are so many other games now a days gw really don't have a place

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
Take for example if a company like Hasbro were to buy up GW after it collapses. One of the first things they would likely do is reissue games like Space Hulk and Talisman through the big box stores. This means that not only would you get new players through the odd foot traffic through back lot game stores - you would also get mainstream traction as parents buy the game at Walmart, Target and Toys 'R Us. Video games would still be licensed, RPGs might stay under FFG or be moved in house under WotC. Miniature production would probably be handled by the "fully formed subsidiary" Citadel Miniatures based out of Singapore. Rules for the miniatures game would likely be moved under WotC. The name Games Workshop would fade into a memory of old guys like me who remember when... In 5 years time, most people wouldn't recall who Kirby was.

I think this might be a bit of wishful thinking.

Speaking as someone who has actually called the chinese production companies GW uses the margines they operate in are pretty big. the one problem is GW is a multi national company. They have overhead costs that double the production cost. Also the complaint about the like clockwork raising of prices is a company checking the markets elasticity. They raise prices and people still buy product so the do it again and again until the market pushes back. This is economics. GW is the market leader and with posistion comes power.

What will kill GW is technology, 3d printers will change how everyones daily life will function. No more buying a gas cap when you lose yours, you will just print it at home. This technology will make gaming less about the miniatures and more about the rules. IMHO GW stopped caring about rule a while ago. Only those who offer a rules set that games truely enjoy will make money and it will not be like it is now. If (and thats a big if) GW choses to embrace the tec then they can chose to release downloadable CAD files as a product instead of pushing against the technology like the music industry. One thing I can say about the the music industry that can maybe be good news for gaming is Indy labels have done fairly well while large companies have lost millions. support your smaller gaming companies and the hobby will survive.

JWhex wrote:

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
I think it depends on geography. America would be fine due to their high instance of FLGS. Places like Australia would suffer as game stores in this country are like fething Unicorn tears.

We do have a lot of flgs but quite a few of them are probably only marginally profitable. Where I live I have seen more than a dozen game stores go out of business since the early nineties. On the other hand a couple have thrived since then.

If GW went down it would certainly take more than a few game stores with it, especially in smaller towns and cities. In fact it would be a terrible blow to the more successful game stores that I know of and perhaps drive them out of business. Running any small business is extremely difficult and few could survive losing a lynchpin product.

I bet enough game stores would fold in the US that there would be a ripple effect harming other game makers as well.

I think that enough of the LGSs out there would survive pretty well, honestly. I mean, the one shop where I'm stationed doesnt move much 40k/GW stuff, but he moves a metric gakload of MTG stuff.... Other shops around my area thrive more off of their other offerings than they do GW stuff, simply because the players in the area had gotten fed up enough to force the store's hand and carry other product/do events for other systems.

Undoubtedly there are those stores out there who are GW Lite, and they would suffer greatly with the downfall of the company, but if they have smart ownership, they will see something coming, and start advertising, etc. for other gaming systems, see what their market share is interested in getting.

 MRPYM wrote:
And I thought to myself if theoretically GW went belly up what would be the effects on the industry?

Nothing would happen to 'the industry'. Other wargame/miniature companies would probably see some sort of influx of ex-GW players.

GW players would experience a pinch period, and probably suffer a decline in playerbase, but somebody would eventually come along and buy up the brand and maybe even some of their assets, just like what happened with Dungeons and Dragons and the Twinkie.

IMHO the effects I would see is that it would be harder to recruit new gamers to the industry> The reason being in my experience a lot of people I met started GW then started other games afterwards.

I don't think GW has quite this level of recruitment power industry-wide. It would be very difficult to recruit people to the GW Hobby, though, as their product line would dry up and people would have to be pretty active on secondary markets... at least until whoever bought them resumed production.

Without GW's exposure in malls and otherwise, I think the industry would see a decrease in new gamers.

The gaming industry would continue to grow, just as it already has. GW's playerbase is arguably already shrinking.

And, I think it quite likely that the playerbase would rebound quickly and actually resume long-term growth within the GW sphere once whoever bought them resumed production. The reason I say this is because GW's community relations are borderline Dark Ages and they foment very little goodwill. Assuming whoever took over actually had official forums, an interactive Dev team, supported events, utilized various media outlets, and basically ran the new GW like Privateer Press, you'd probably have a lot of new interest and re-convert old players back into the fold.

 Rainbow Dash wrote:
wouldn't matter to me, I already "ragequit" the "hobby"

Don't you mean the ONE and ONLY Hhhhobby?

I would be bummed and hopeful at the same time. Bummed that the company had to go through it because of poor business practices on their part but hopeful that someone better would come along and buy the IP's and really get serious about growing the games.

Table top wargaming existed before GW opened their first GW store, and it would continue to exist long after the lasw GW store closed.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
I think it depends on geography. America would be fine due to their high instance of FLGS. Places like Australia would suffer as game stores in this country are like fething Unicorn tears.

Probably a fair assessment.

Here in metro Atlanta, there is exactly one GW store. There has never been more than one GW store, and before the current one existed, the previous one was 30+ miles outside of the city itself.

In the same metro area, there are no less than five fairly large FLGS that have all been open longer than GW's two stores' (original store and current store) combined presence here in Atlanta. The stores work together for events and tournaments. They've occassionally had challenge tournaments where several players from one store come over and play several players from the other store for bragging rights. The stores feature a broad variety of miniature wargames, RPG's, card games, and board games.

Here, in the USA, an end to GW would not spell and end to table top wargaming.

Saldiven wrote:
Table top wargaming existed before GW opened their first GW store, and it would continue to exist long after the lasw GW store closed.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
I think it depends on geography. America would be fine due to their high instance of FLGS. Places like Australia would suffer as game stores in this country are like fething Unicorn tears.

Probably a fair assessment.

Here in metro Atlanta, there is exactly one GW store. There has never been more than one GW store, and before the current one existed, the previous one was 30+ miles outside of the city itself.

In the same metro area, there are no less than five fairly large FLGS that have all been open longer than GW's two stores' (original store and current store) combined presence here in Atlanta. The stores work together for events and tournaments. They've occassionally had challenge tournaments where several players from one store come over and play several players from the other store for bragging rights. The stores feature a broad variety of miniature wargames, RPG's, card games, and board games.

Here, in the USA, an end to GW would not spell and end to table top wargaming.

All of this would be true

However, being a massive 40k fanboy, would GW's demise spell the end for the awesome game that is 40k? Would someone offer to buy the IP so that this very popular game system wouldn't die?

 ace101 wrote:
However, being a massive 40k fanboy, would GW's demise spell the end for the awesome game that is 40k? Would someone offer to buy the IP so that this very popular game system wouldn't die?

The GW IP is reasonably valuable, just like D&D. Someone will purchase it, along with other GW IPs and that company will market the games for sometime. The worst thing that will happen near term in the game stagnates while the new company adjusts the 40K development plan.

The only way I see 40K going away is if the GW some how manages to not sell out and just closes it's doors. I don't think this will happen as the GW IP is fairly valuable and it's a public company. A crotchety old person can't take the IP with them to the grave. Once the stock price gets to a "under valued" position, another company could come in and purchase controlling shares, boot the current leadership and do as they with the company.

For example, the total value of GWs stock is 150 million. Hasbro decides that GW IP is worth 200 million and they have major overlap with their other products, especially within manufacturing. Hasbor purchases 51% of the GW stock (75 million). They then force the CEO out and install a Hasbro friendly CEO. The new CEO then liquidates the GW assets, of which Hasbro purchases 40K, Nercromunda, Battlefleet Gothic, Inquisitor and all other 40K universe IPs. LotR and Fantasy may go too other companies. Hasbro ends up with the GW assets they want and doesn't spend all that much money in the grand scheme of things.

GW won't disappear.

A lot of the hatred of GW is rational - much of the problem is that they're a public company. I've been there, in a similar setup. Essentially, the board doesn't answer to their customers - they answer to the city. Everything is focused towards keeping the share price up; if the share price plummets, the CEO is usually out. So he cares far more about the share price than where the company will be five years from now. that's the only important criterion. And yes, this short-termism has driven many companies to the wall, including my old one, who lost the cool total of £1 billion in assets over the space of three years, but still got bought for a few hundred million.

If this short termism does result in disaster, the fact they're publicly quoted means there are people who'll buy them; venture capitalists (altho money is tight) or more likely a European privately-owned company.

The only realistic prospect of the company going bust, is if they engineer such a move, in order to get out of property leases. In modern retail, the terms on which you rent/own your outlets are a key part of your business. Without the UK's outrageous overpriced commercial property rental, a lot more contenders would have stepped in to buy Waterstones, HMV, Jessops etc etc etc. But even if that happens, they'll still keep producing the models.

Saldiven wrote:
Table top wargaming existed before GW opened their first GW store, and it would continue to exist long after the lasw GW store closed.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
I think it depends on geography. America would be fine due to their high instance of FLGS. Places like Australia would suffer as game stores in this country are like fething Unicorn tears.

Probably a fair assessment.

Here in metro Atlanta, there is exactly one GW store. There has never been more than one GW store, and before the current one existed, the previous one was 30+ miles outside of the city itself.

In the same metro area, there are no less than five fairly large FLGS that have all been open longer than GW's two stores' (original store and current store) combined presence here in Atlanta. The stores work together for events and tournaments. They've occassionally had challenge tournaments where several players from one store come over and play several players from the other store for bragging rights. The stores feature a broad variety of miniature wargames, RPG's, card games, and board games.

Here, in the USA, an end to GW would not spell and end to table top wargaming.

Thats not very healthy for an area with the population of the greater Atlanta metropolitan area which is some ridiculous number like 8 million. When I lived there a few years ago there were virtually no game stores on the south side of the city and you had to drive down to Fayatteville to go to Treefort Games which was only open on weekends, excellent gaming tables though.

 Yodhrin wrote:

 Dais wrote:

Keep in mind though, what is best for GW, the industry as a whole, and us as fans is not all the same.

That's a perspective that is pervasive among businesspeople these days, and IMO it's both untrue and toxic. It is entirely possible for a business to perpetuate itself, experience modest growth, and take care of the needs and wants of their customers at the same time, indeed I would say that doing the best you can to meet the needs of your customers is the best way to ensure the former two remain true over the long term. It's only once a company and their shareholders swallow the Hayekian playbook whole and begin regurgitating nonsense about "the duty to shareholders is to make the most money possible all the time at any cost" that the problems begin.

You're right. I should have phrased that better. GW have many false beliefs about their business which you covered wonderfully above. Likewise, many in the community believe that dirt cheap minis is the only improvement they care about. I know we all have different views on what a gamer's Shangri la would be, but I've seen so many people complain about the status quo without looking at a broader picture I know there are some shortsighted points of view out there.

If I may rephrase my statement :
what we players believe we want, what gw believes is best for them, and what is best for the industry are not all the same.

Like others have said, a company like GW would get snapped up straightaway, hopefully by somebody more competent.

We might then see fairer treatment of customers, price decreases (instead of ever present increases) and god forbid customer support and player focus.

If they didn't get bought out (which is near impossible), I wouldn't mind too much as long as my Eldar codex and new models get released first! :-)