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 angelofvengeance wrote:
@Davor: Shockingly, it costs money to manufacture this stuff. So they're probably doing smaller runs so they don't have stock lying around.

Shockingly they didn't have a problem with The Hobbit special edition and Dreadfleet to produce so much. So yeah, that is not an issue.

I guess we wll see more "Spire of Dawn" sets later...

At this point its speculative to say it was artificial since no one really knows the numbers… only thing clear is that they sold out so yeah a hit for GW.

 NAVARRO wrote:
At this point its speculative to say it was artificial since no one really knows the numbers… only thing clear is that they sold out so yeah a hit for GW.

I was just about to say this, trying to state such things when no one has such information is kinda pointless.

Davor wrote:

 angelofvengeance wrote:
@Davor: Shockingly, it costs money to manufacture this stuff. So they're probably doing smaller runs so they don't have stock lying around.

Shockingly they didn't have a problem with The Hobbit special edition and Dreadfleet to produce so much. So yeah, that is not an issue.

Which kind of explains why they produce conservatively, doesn't it?

Vorian wrote:

Davor wrote:

 angelofvengeance wrote:
@Davor: Shockingly, it costs money to manufacture this stuff. So they're probably doing smaller runs so they don't have stock lying around.

Shockingly they didn't have a problem with The Hobbit special edition and Dreadfleet to produce so much. So yeah, that is not an issue.

Which kind of explains why they produce conservatively, doesn't it?

I think it's sort of a weird parody of actual supply and demand. GW is so afraid that things will either go unsold, end up on eBay for parts, or (gasp!) people will wait and see if goes on sale (see: Recalling Dreadfleet to destroy it rather than put it on sale, lest people think they can just wait a few months and buy a product at discount) that they deliberately produce less than they should and it gets sold out immediately.

 MangoMadness wrote:

 Chimera_Calvin wrote:
BUT the Spire of Dawn set contains the new cavalry ovals for the Reavers and Skaven weapon teams, which have never been made as slottabases and large rounds for the Rat Ogors. Depending on size these may not have existing slottabase rounds (which were uncommon above infantry size).

My point was that I can't see GW tooling molds for 1 or 2 new kinds of base that their new kits will never use going forwards just to put into a rebox with old sprues that they are selling off for a ridiculously cheap price.

Do you really think GW would include 74 extra bases because 7 (old cav based) models would require a little modeling? It just doesnt sound like a reasonable way of going about it, throw in 7 extra cav bases sure but a whole extra set of 74 bases for the entire lot? just doesnt sound right.

I didnt count the ogres as they are 'plug foot' which would need minimal modelling skill to cut off to glue to a round base.

Yeah, to me that seems like something they'd do. It's a matter of completeness; chances are the people who put some models on squares are going to want all models on squares, so why not include them for a what is probably less than $1 per box. Plus I'd guess they have square slot bases to get rid of as things move to round.

Yep might as well clear base stock, especially as all those bases were already in the left over IoB boxes.

I've seen a few people on Facebook say that their store managers told them that it was accidentally put up for pre-order a week early, so they took it down, hence why it says out of stock now. So there may well be more next weekend.

we may all just be overestimating how many units they can produce in a given time

for example the latest D6 generation podcast was talking to steamforged games about their darksouls game and their factory (one of the larger Chinese ones) can only do 10,000 units per month (doing nothing else at all)

so it's probably harder than you imagine for GW to find time to product lots of units of anything new (where they'll have to build up stock) alongside all the normal production work they'll be doing to keep their normal stock levels up

the more stock they build up the slower the releases have to be and the longer in advance they have to plan them

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
we may all just be overestimating how many units they can produce in a given time

for example the latest D6 generation podcast was talking to steamforged games about their darksouls game and their factory (one of the larger Chinese ones) can only do 10,000 units per month (doing nothing else at all)

so it's probably harder than you imagine for GW to find time to product lots of units of anything new (where they'll have to build up stock) alongside all the normal production work they'll be doing to keep their normal stock levels up

the more stock they build up the slower the releases have to be and the longer in advance they have to plan them

I would take that as a reason except that only recently (as in the past few years) have things gone up for order and been sold out almost immediately on pre-order, before even becoming available for purchase in stores. GW in ages past never seemed to have any problem at all with stock.

I was tempted to wait for 20% off on retail, but it was flying of the site, and i could pick up at a store and save shipping, so i did it.

Funny enough, us store seems to have it in stock up to now, so i dont think it is sold out in other places because they pulled it off for next week.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 ImAGeek wrote:
I've seen a few people on Facebook say that their store managers told them that it was accidentally put up for pre-order a week early, so they took it down, hence why it says out of stock now. So there may well be more next weekend.

it still selling on us, and rest of the world store. So i dont think thats the case.

sadysaneto wrote:
I was tempted to wait for 20% off on retail, but it was flying of the site, and i could pick up at a store and save shipping, so i did it.

Funny enough, us store seems to have it in stock up to now, so i dont think it is sold out in other places because they pulled it off for next week.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 ImAGeek wrote:
I've seen a few people on Facebook say that their store managers told them that it was accidentally put up for pre-order a week early, so they took it down, hence why it says out of stock now. So there may well be more next weekend.

it still selling on us, and rest of the world store. So i dont think thats the case.

It's sold out in the US, and the rest of the world, but it is still up in a couple of places (Australia and New Zealand for example).

Vorian wrote:

Davor wrote:

 angelofvengeance wrote:
@Davor: Shockingly, it costs money to manufacture this stuff. So they're probably doing smaller runs so they don't have stock lying around.

Shockingly they didn't have a problem with The Hobbit special edition and Dreadfleet to produce so much. So yeah, that is not an issue.

Which kind of explains why they produce conservatively, doesn't it?

And did you just admitted GW doesn't produce enough on purpose? I wouldn't be calling this conservatively at all. Let's call it for what it is, and under produced on purpose.

I am not saying this tactic is bad or anything.

 angelofvengeance wrote:
@Davor: Shockingly, it costs money to manufacture this stuff. So they're probably doing smaller runs so they don't have stock lying around.

This. It's not like GW can magically produce stuff on a whim. Smart production is in volume, to minimize unsold stock. Ideally, you make 1 massive batch which instantly sells out, except for1 unit that takes a couple days to clear. Like GW M2O.

Maximum sale, minimum turn, minimum hold = optimal cash flow, revenue & profit.

Wayniac wrote:

 OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
we may all just be overestimating how many units they can produce in a given time

for example the latest D6 generation podcast was talking to steamforged games about their darksouls game and their factory (one of the larger Chinese ones) can only do 10,000 units per month (doing nothing else at all)

so it's probably harder than you imagine for GW to find time to product lots of units of anything new (where they'll have to build up stock) alongside all the normal production work they'll be doing to keep their normal stock levels up

the more stock they build up the slower the releases have to be and the longer in advance they have to plan them

I would take that as a reason except that only recently (as in the past few years) have things gone up for order and been sold out almost immediately on pre-order, before even becoming available for purchase in stores. GW in ages past never seemed to have any problem at all with stock.

Keep in mind that the release pace is much faster now than it was in ages past. It stands to reason that this would put a crunch on production, especially given the costs of expanding said production.

Davor wrote:

Vorian wrote:

Davor wrote:

 angelofvengeance wrote:
@Davor: Shockingly, it costs money to manufacture this stuff. So they're probably doing smaller runs so they don't have stock lying around.

Shockingly they didn't have a problem with The Hobbit special edition and Dreadfleet to produce so much. So yeah, that is not an issue.

Which kind of explains why they produce conservatively, doesn't it?

And did you just admitted GW doesn't produce enough on purpose? I wouldn't be calling this conservatively at all. Let's call it for what it is, and under produced on purpose.

I am not saying this tactic is bad or anything.

Can you explain this? He gave a reason for why GW would produce less and be surprised by it selling out, which is an argument against them under-producing to drive demand. Further, without any numbers there is no basis here to make that claim other than pure speculation, so I'm not seeing where you are getting the reasoning from. Its coming across as just being cynical.

Davor wrote:

Vorian wrote:

Davor wrote:

 angelofvengeance wrote:
@Davor: Shockingly, it costs money to manufacture this stuff. So they're probably doing smaller runs so they don't have stock lying around.

Shockingly they didn't have a problem with The Hobbit special edition and Dreadfleet to produce so much. So yeah, that is not an issue.

Which kind of explains why they produce conservatively, doesn't it?

And did you just admitted GW doesn't produce enough on purpose? I wouldn't be calling this conservatively at all. Let's call it for what it is, and under produced on purpose.

I am not saying this tactic is bad or anything.

The myth of companies undershipping to create hype is a frustratingly reoccurring myth. When a company makes a product like this it is not just production that costs.
They need to think about shipping, the cost of storage and shelf space in the stores. Honestly this is the biggest issue.
GW have been a huge volume of large boxed products recently. Many stores are very small with limited space. There are 12 more boxes at least in January. They need to clear the space.
In this case it is much more simple. When warhammer finished they recalled all the left over starters. They even bought back stock from the independent stores. I imagine these sets are simply all the reboxed starters. That is also why they include the square bases as they are already all there.

Not a myth at all. Thing is, you believe what you want to believe, I will believe what I want to believe. Don't agree with me, fine, but don't try and change my opinion unless you have actual facts.

Your facts are just like mine. Useless facts with no proof. I can counter what you said with just as much as useless facts so let's forget about this and agree to disagree.

Davor wrote:
Not a myth at all. Thing is, you believe what you want to believe, I will believe what I want to believe. Don't agree with me, fine, but don't try and change my opinion unless you have actual facts.

Your facts are just like mine. Useless facts with no proof. I can counter what you said with just as much as useless facts so let's forget about this and agree to disagree.

You always either under or overproduce when you make something before people by it. Hitting the exact number is largely impossible, and underproducing is cheaper and has more tools for cost mitigation.

Chikout wrote:

Davor wrote:

Vorian wrote:

Davor wrote:

 angelofvengeance wrote:
@Davor: Shockingly, it costs money to manufacture this stuff. So they're probably doing smaller runs so they don't have stock lying around.

Shockingly they didn't have a problem with The Hobbit special edition and Dreadfleet to produce so much. So yeah, that is not an issue.

Which kind of explains why they produce conservatively, doesn't it?

And did you just admitted GW doesn't produce enough on purpose? I wouldn't be calling this conservatively at all. Let's call it for what it is, and under produced on purpose.

I am not saying this tactic is bad or anything.

The myth of companies undershipping to create hype is a frustratingly reoccurring myth. When a company makes a product like this it is not just production that costs.
They need to think about shipping, the cost of storage and shelf space in the stores. Honestly this is the biggest issue.
GW have been a huge volume of large boxed products recently. Many stores are very small with limited space. There are 12 more boxes at least in January. They need to clear the space.
In this case it is much more simple. When warhammer finished they recalled all the left over starters. They even bought back stock from the independent stores. I imagine these sets are simply all the reboxed starters. That is also why they include the square bases as they are already all there.

Well why would you rebox stuff, if your clearing it out. Some Warhammer products like State Troops still come in the Warhammer boxes. Why not white boxes? Also this was a pre-order, why the hell would you pre-order stuff that you are going to clearout?

We all know that "Island of Blood" was still selling, when they pulled the plug.

I really like to believe that GW, finnaly starts to understand, that promoting one kind of play ( skirmish with round bases ), wil[/img]l loose them customers.

Also it was putted to the Swifthawk agent tab:

https://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Warhammer?Nu=product.repositoryId&N=102295+4294965206&qty=12&sorting=rec&view=table&categoryId=cat440002a-flat

I guess, if this was a clearance it could have gone to "Last Chance to Buy" with Warhammer box art.

One more thing:



Just read the last line: IN STORES SOON

Would go through the trouble of reboxing a product and putting them on the selfs of your stores, when you are clearing it out? Why wouldnt you just leave it in the warehouse and send it out via post.

Island of Blood is here to stay people, with optional square bases.

Davor wrote:
Not a myth at all. Thing is, you believe what you want to believe, I will believe what I want to believe. Don't agree with me, fine, but don't try and change my opinion unless you have actual facts.

Your facts are just like mine. Useless facts with no proof. I can counter what you said with just as much as useless facts so let's forget about this and agree to disagree.

That argument doesn't work when your opinion differs from the established baseline. There is no evidence to believe that the situation is not the most simple answer of demand exceeding supply, making that the most valid assumption. Further 'we all have an opinion so yours and mine cancel out' is the classic argument of someone who wants to avoid admitting that the logic goes against their position. That's fine, but please don't try to undermine our position by saying it has no backing.

 NinthMusketeer wrote:

Davor wrote:
Not a myth at all. Thing is, you believe what you want to believe, I will believe what I want to believe. Don't agree with me, fine, but don't try and change my opinion unless you have actual facts.

Your facts are just like mine. Useless facts with no proof. I can counter what you said with just as much as useless facts so let's forget about this and agree to disagree.

That argument doesn't work when your opinion differs from the established baseline. There is no evidence to believe that the situation is not the most simple answer of demand exceeding supply, making that the most valid assumption. Further 'we all have an opinion so yours and mine cancel out' is the classic argument of someone who wants to avoid admitting that the logic goes against their position. That's fine, but please don't try to undermine our position by saying it has no backing.

I am not undermining your position. Again, agree to disagree. Nobody has proven anything here. Most valid assumption is the world is flat. Or the sun revolves around the earth. We now know how that turned out to be. Just because my opinion "differs from the established baseline" doesn't mean I am wrong anymore that it means I am correct.

No, but all rational evidence suggests that you clearly don't know what you're talking about.

GW wants to make money by selling toys, simple as that. They would far rather just collect dollars than to have people wait for another production batch. Especially during the hyper-competitive X-mas holiday season when everybody else is trying to take their dollars.

Now, if you can demonstrate how this supposed hype translates into more spend a couple months from now, after the X-mas season is over, I'd love to hear it.

Otherwise, you are once again making stuff up with no basis in even the most basic of marketing and sales.

Eh, we don't have to assume malice in this scenario when it's entirely likely that GW is just really bad at estimating how many boxes they should make.

 TheWaspinator wrote:
Eh, we don't have to assume malice in this scenario when it's entirely likely that GW is just really bad at estimating how many boxes they should make.

Its not that simple.

Lets look at freight as an example. Lets say 5000 SoD boxes fit into a 40' container. Do they order 4000 SoD and pay the same freight cost? do they order 5000 and maximize the volume in the container? Do they order 6000, fill a 40' container and then put the next 1000 in a LCL (Less than Container Load) which costs more per unit or do they order 10000 (2 containers) and have the extra sit in a warehouse waiting to be sold.

The smart money is on filling a 40' container to minimize freight cost/unit with guaranteed immediate sales and stock rotation.

Sales might be screaming 'but we can sell 6000!' but finance will be saying 'lets sell 5000 first and see how we go from there'

And thats just the freight side of the argument, that doesnt take into account storage of unsold stock (if they over order), etc etc.

 MangoMadness wrote:

 TheWaspinator wrote:
Eh, we don't have to assume malice in this scenario when it's entirely likely that GW is just really bad at estimating how many boxes they should make.

Its not that simple.

Lets look at freight as an example. Lets say 5000 SoD boxes fit into a 40' container. Do they order 4000 SoD and pay the same freight cost? do they order 5000 and maximize the volume in the container? Do they order 6000, fill a 40' container and then put the next 1000 in a LCL (Less than Container Load) which costs more per unit or do they order 10000 (2 containers) and have the extra sit in a warehouse waiting to be sold.

The smart money is on filling a 40' container to minimize freight cost/unit with guaranteed immediate sales and stock rotation.

Sales might be screaming 'but we can sell 6000!' but finance will be saying 'lets sell 5000 first and see how we go from there'

And thats just the freight side of the argument, that doesnt take into account storage of unsold stock (if they over order), etc etc.

For the most part neither of these things are a significant issue for GW.

 Baragash wrote:

For the most part neither of these things are a significant issue for GW.

Feel free to enlighten us with your insider information of the situation so we all may be blessed by your knowledge

 NinthMusketeer wrote:
There is no evidence to believe that the situation is not the most simple answer of demand exceeding supply, making that the most valid assumption.

In which case it would be most sensible option for GW to produce more. If you can sell 1000 it makes most sense to produce 1000 rather than 100. Especially in case of plastic models that a) are dirt cheap to produce b) moulds are largest expense so the more sprues you sell the bigger profit those moulds generate.

This quick sold out pace indicates clearly there's demand for them so not producing more is just burning cash. And it's not like it was unexpected speed of being sold out...

 MangoMadness wrote:

 Baragash wrote:

For the most part neither of these things are a significant issue for GW.

Feel free to enlighten us with your insider information of the situation so we all may be blessed by your knowledge

Nothing insider about it. Most of GW's product is manufactured on their own site and stored on their own site, so freighting costs only apply to product sent to overseas depots, and storage costs are irrelevant as they're already sunk costs.

tneva82 wrote:

 NinthMusketeer wrote:
There is no evidence to believe that the situation is not the most simple answer of demand exceeding supply, making that the most valid assumption.

In which case it would be most sensible option for GW to produce more. If you can sell 1000 it makes most sense to produce 1000 rather than 100. Especially in case of plastic models that a) are dirt cheap to produce b) moulds are largest expense so the more sprues you sell the bigger profit those moulds generate.

This quick sold out pace indicates clearly there's demand for them so not producing more is just burning cash. And it's not like it was unexpected speed of being sold out...

The idea is that they underestimated demand, it's not like they knew exactly what it would be ahead of time. If they were basing things off sales of Island.of Blood before it was discontinued then I can totally see how they would vastly underestimate things.