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 Insectum7 wrote:

 Xenomancers wrote:

Bharring wrote:
"Even with rerolls to hit and wound, you're only averaging 20."
You can't Doom 20 Marines. That's capped at 10. And they're super unlikely to be units of 6+, so really you're just dooming 5.

Also, what reroll-all-misses to DE have?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
"Hes exagerating a little bit. Unless hes also bringing jetfighters with dessie as well."
Something that averages 10 is 'nearly 30' is not a slight exaggeration. It's a complete whiff of scale.

No - not really.

Hes getting reroll 1's to hit and wound if he is blackheart. Killing 20 is well within reason if they aren't in cover.

That gets my math about 13.5 kills?

Within reason is not the average. I'd say it's within 1 standard deviation is within reason.

Bharring wrote:

Isn't Ravagers a max of 18 Dissie shots (3 boats, 2 guns each, 3 shots per gun)?

No, it's 9 shots per boat. Rerolling 1s to hit and wound, as well as leadership penalties against big squads from phantasm grenade launchers. Of course one of the 10 man units would be Doomed.

In reality it's not 30. That was an exaggeration. But i comfortably kill 2 10man squads per turn with dice leftover with these guys, thanks to leadership debuffs. I could do 3 squads, but it would require a little bit of luck.

So more like 20-25.

At the absolute worst i'm killing 2 full squads. Assuming no wargear & no primaris, that's still 260 points a turn.

Eldar annihilate marines. You guys aren't even a challenge. No offense.

 Marmatag wrote:

Bharring wrote:

Isn't Ravagers a max of 18 Dissie shots (3 boats, 2 guns each, 3 shots per gun)?

No, it's 9 shots per boat. Rerolling 1s to hit and wound, as well as leadership penalties against big squads from phantasm grenade launchers. Of course one of the 10 man units would be Doomed.

In reality it's not 30. That was an exaggeration. But i comfortably kill 2 10man squads per turn with dice leftover with these guys, thanks to leadership debuffs.

Oh good. Can you inform Slayer-Fan that Morale actually matters?

"Within reason is not the average. I'd say it's within 1 standard deviation is within reason."
I don't have a calculator handy, but your StdDev looks off.

A roughly (1/3) chance occuring 20+ times in 27 tries? I'm fairly sure the odds of that are very small.

dhallnet wrote:

 Xenomancers wrote:

dhallnet wrote:

 Xenomancers wrote:

An intercessor should be like a space marine Ogran WS3 BS3 Str5 T5 3W A3 3+ and should have str 5 ap-1 bolters and ap-1 CC attacks for like 25 points. Instead they have shoehorned primaris into this garbage area that is barely tougher than a 1 wound marine at all. Like half the weapons in the game have d3 or flat 2 damage. Instead we pay that price fro the base statline on an agressor with -1s -1w and -1a. Very weak stuff.

Ogrins are 30/35 points (?) and your Hulk Intercessor seems better from a quick glance.

Organs would be pretty bad without their gear giving them tons of autocannon attacks in CC and 1+ save action going on with stratagems. Go ahead and put some geared out bulgrans against my hulk intercessors with stratagems and all available. My marines are going to get wooped.

The price was without the gear afaik (they are at 42 with the maul). And I'll admit I'm not aware of every shenanigans they can pull. But on paper your profile+loadout seems a bit too much for 25 pts

Well it seems that way because most the units at the price point are totally garbage...terminators/agressors (only not garbage if they shoot twice which is special)/Inceptors (garbage). If all those units went to 3 wounds with no price increases they would go from garbage to playable - they wouldn't be OP.

Bullgryns win tournaments. They get get a 1+ save with -1 to hit with some cheap buffs put on them. They used to be able to get 2++ saves but now I think that is maxed at a 3++. They have like 5 attacks each with the proper buffs and each 1 is an autocannon swing with flat 2 damage. In any case - I think they are probably over priced if not for the insane buffs they can get.

Plus I also believe the mobile units pay to little for their mobility - so in my perfect world of balance - slow units cost less and fast units cost more.

Bharring wrote:
"Within reason is not the average. I'd say it's within 1 standard deviation is within reason."
I don't have a calculator handy, but your StdDev looks off.

A roughly (1/3) chance occuring 20+ times in 27 tries? I'm fairly sure the odds of that are very small.

You need to factor in morale losses. Marines aren't immune to it. And we're talking 10 man blobs.

Bharring wrote:
"Ravagers alone would kill nearly 30 per turn, not even factoring in blasters, poison, etc. "
Wow, that's some really hot rolling.

I assume you hit and wound with every shot. Then charge into CC and get a kill for every attack. Then he rolls terribad for leadership with 10man units?

Isn't Ravagers a max of 18 Dissie shots (3 boats, 2 guns each, 3 shots per gun)?

They're 27 (9 shots for each boat) shots, tipycally with re-rolling 1s to hit and to wound. 3 ravagers with the max buffs, without allied buffs but only drukhari bonuses, should get 21-22 hits and 16-17 wounds against a tipycal T4 SM target. Definitely far from the nearly 30 dudes killed in a turn. If the SM player fields squads of 5 dudes some of the wounds could be wasted in overkilling a squad.

Good luck killing marines with poison shots.

But honestly SM without vehicles don't make any sense, especially against drukhari which rely on their dissies more than lances. Spamming T7+ units is definitely more effective against drukhari than spamming power armor dudes.

 Insectum7 wrote:

 Marmatag wrote:

Bharring wrote:

Isn't Ravagers a max of 18 Dissie shots (3 boats, 2 guns each, 3 shots per gun)?

No, it's 9 shots per boat. Rerolling 1s to hit and wound, as well as leadership penalties against big squads from phantasm grenade launchers. Of course one of the 10 man units would be Doomed.

In reality it's not 30. That was an exaggeration. But i comfortably kill 2 10man squads per turn with dice leftover with these guys, thanks to leadership debuffs.

Oh good. Can you inform Slayer-Fan that Morale actually matters?

It matters for marines, yes. No one else, really, takes a hit from morale.

 Insectum7 wrote:
Oh good. Can you inform Slayer-Fan that Morale actually matters?

To be fair it only matters if you make it matter (although, Hemlocks).

I don't think I have seen a non-5 man Marine squad in a decade.

Kill 7 marines in a squad of 10, with -2 leadership (or worse), and they're losing whatever the dice roll is. Even with a reroll it's still expected to be a 3. So 14 marines to kill 20. Pretty reasonable. Then if you can manage to get 6 in the last squad, with a nice morale fail, it's 3 squads.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Tyel wrote:

 Insectum7 wrote:
Oh good. Can you inform Slayer-Fan that Morale actually matters?

To be fair it only matters if you make it matter (although, Hemlocks).

I don't think I have seen a non-5 man Marine squad in a decade.

Insectum runs them in squads of 10. So do deathwatch players.

 Marmatag wrote:


You need to factor in morale losses. Marines aren't immune to it. And we're talking 10 man blobs.

Just admit that you wildly exaggerated.

I'm sorry, who takes 10 man marine squads?

No one.

Because there is almost no reason to.

 Crimson wrote:

 Marmatag wrote:


You need to factor in morale losses. Marines aren't immune to it. And we're talking 10 man blobs.

Just admit that you wildly exaggerated.

I am not exaggerating, I did it at SoCal. Morale matters and people run 10 man blobs.

 Marmatag wrote:

At the absolute worst i'm killing 2 full squads. Assuming no wargear & no primaris, that's still 260 points a turn.

Eldar annihilate marines. You guys aren't even a challenge. No offense.

My models are all fearless, as I take the Relic Banner.

Full disclosure, I might have joined your meta as we lost out on a bid for a place in the East Bay. That would have been interesting. Instead we nabbed a place in SF, so why drive 45 min when I can walk 5-10.

But how many Marines in a 5-man squad do you need to kill to be certain they'll be wiped out by Morale?

Bharring wrote:
But how many Marines in a 5-man squad do you need to kill to be certain they'll be wiped out by Morale?

I'm not talking about 5 man squads.

Bharring wrote:
But how many Marines in a 5-man squad do you need to kill to be certain they'll be wiped out by Morale?

Five.

 Insectum7 wrote:

 Marmatag wrote:

At the absolute worst i'm killing 2 full squads. Assuming no wargear & no primaris, that's still 260 points a turn.

Eldar annihilate marines. You guys aren't even a challenge. No offense.

My models are all fearless, as I take the Relic Banner.

Full disclosure, I might have joined your meta as we lost out on a bid for a place in the East Bay. That would have been interesting. Instead we nabbed a place in SF, so why drive 45 min when I can walk 5-10.

Fearless models are stickier. In this case it would not be that many.

Or course morale matters in this game against elite models. If you can stack -2 or -3 leadership on them, you are really, really amping up your casualties. Dark Eldar are all about morale penalties. Space Marine players are always a bit shocked when they start losing models to me in the morale phase. The best is when they reroll into a 6.

Friendly advice if you guys ever start playing competitively. Make your opponents roll morale. The losses happen way more than you'd think.

 Sir Heckington wrote:
I'm sorry, who takes 10 man marine squads?

No one.

Because there is almost no reason to.

I do, for buffing purposes, because that's how they're painted, and because as Ultramarine running the Relic Banner it rarely matters.

Even assuming you kill 7 and get the remaining 3 from morale, you're still more likely than not failing to kill 2 10man squads. Within a reasonable distance for it to not be unlikely, though.

But we're a far cry from 30 in a round easily. And if you fail by one model, their best weapon says around.

Bharring wrote:
"Within reason is not the average. I'd say it's within 1 standard deviation is within reason."
I don't have a calculator handy, but your StdDev looks off.

A roughly (1/3) chance occuring 20+ times in 27 tries? I'm fairly sure the odds of that are very small.

It's not a (1/3) chance 3 times. Rerolls of 1 to hit and wound and it's only a 6+ save in the open.

the math is easy.
27 shots
3's to hit reroll 1's
3's to wound reroll 1's
6+ saves

It's 27x .89x.89 x.82 = 17.5 - That is the average.

 Marmatag wrote:
Insectum runs them in squads of 10. So do deathwatch players.

True enough.
Sadly I still don't know a single regular Deathwatch player.

 Marmatag wrote:
Space Marine players are always a bit shocked when they start losing models to me in the morale phase.

n00bs.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Xenomancers wrote:

Bharring wrote:
"Within reason is not the average. I'd say it's within 1 standard deviation is within reason."
I don't have a calculator handy, but your StdDev looks off.

A roughly (1/3) chance occuring 20+ times in 27 tries? I'm fairly sure the odds of that are very small.

It's not a (1/3) chance 3 times. Rerolls of 1 to hit and wound and it's only a 6+ save in the open.

the math is easy.
27 shots
3's to hit reroll 1's
3's to wound reroll 1's
6+ saves

It's 27x .89x.89 x.82 = 17.5 - That is the average.

reroll 1's is about a .77 chance, not a .89

Cover is easy to get on 5 man squads though, and also some overkill with wasted wounds. That 17.5 is lower in the reality, and it's about 3 ravagers at full strenght. Paper things that go down, or at least degrade, very easily.

I'm not talking about 5 man squads in cover. We're talking 10 man squads.

5 man squads aren't losing models to morale, period. Unless they pull the sergeant and roll a 4+, which is still possible, but not something I plan on.

My (1/3) chance was referring to without buffs. But reroll 1s is reasonable.

Rerolling ones works out to be [(2/3) + (1/6)(2/3)], or 7/9. Which is .7 repeating, not .90.

Works out to:
(7/9)(7/9)(5/6)
Which is:
245/486. Those are relatively prime, so no reduction possible.

Works out to 0.50 per shot. With these rerolls, it is quite a bit better than a 1/3 chance. But the average is 13.5.

I'm fairly sure 20 is *not* within a stddev of 13.5, but haven't run the numbers. You're just as likely to only kill 7 as you are to kill 20.

 Insectum7 wrote:

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:

 Insectum7 wrote:

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
I already won the argument a while back. I literally have only lost units to morale ONCE since this edition has been out, because it's a garbage mechanic. To say to take advantage of morale was bad on your end, sorry.

And yeah, with your meta, you shouldn't be giving advice. Sorry.

If you say so. Anecdotal evidence isn't proof, and your experience playing not-guard isn't necessarily relevant to Guard. Maybe you haven't lost more models to morale because you play against terrible players in a casual meta. Hmm? See how lazy that reasoning is?

Skitarii have the same exact LD stat..

Do you play them the same as you would play Guard? Do you field them as a screen? How many points are they? Do you have support units that are in jeopardy if I get past them, like Guard do? Or does the army as a whole fight differently than Guard?


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Bremon wrote:

Insectum7 what are you accomplishing with this? You aren’t wiping things, you aren’t shifting things off objectives, you aren’t getting kill points, you’re doing nothing. So if your shooting remains at 100% efficacy you will have maybe wiped each target in 3 turns. Killing 7 models and you’re getting D6 extra kills. Why not kill 16-18 nearly guarantee the 30 bodies are wiped? Then you’re displacing bubble wrap, displacing objective control, disrupting the enemy’s game plan. The issue is marines need more killing power to be able to clear the chaff better.

As for your buff anecdotes... I can’t imagine your horde marines being effective, nor much fun to play against. Actually scratch that; they probably are fun to play against; it’s not hard to lay waste to mass amounts of mini marines. An 18”ish circle of marines wandering the table maximizing buffs...I’m not buying it, otherwise Templars wouldn’t be so poor.

"What are you accomplishing with this?" I'm killing more guardsmen than I would if I didn't do it. I'm not getting the "why not kill 16 to 18 and nearly guaranteeing that 30 bodies are wiped". Like I really have no idea what you're talking about. Is this some giant combined squad here? Because I haven't seen that in person. If there was a giant combined squad, then sure, that's a great thing to do.

As for objectives and kill points, I don't play ITC, thus my priorities are different. I think my marine horde fares better outside of ITC because I don't have to worry about progressive scoring.

Honestly it's a bit of a bear to play, because there are so many re-rolls. I've begun to find it cumbersome over the last few months.

You...really know nothing about Skitarii? Uh okay here's the basics without posting the codex
1. One of them is 7 points, the other 8
2. For more than an Infantry dude, they get a 4+/6++, BS3+, and a better gun
3. One of these guns is 30", S4, RF1, and has a rule to be AP-1 on a 6 to wound
4. The other gun is 18", S3, Assault 3, and a 6 to wound is D2
5. The one with the Assault gun has a toughness lowering rule, but it's irrelevant
6. Special weapons are an 18" Assault 2 Plasma Gun and a 60" S7 AP-2 DD3 Sniper Rifle. We don't talk about the Arc rifle because it's terrible
7. I don't feel like getting into the FW Dogmas. If you're that interested in how they interact with their army traits, Google it or shoot me a PM. I was doing great with my Skitarii until the army was destroyed.


So as you can imagine, the ones with the longer range would play more akin to Infantry where you camp and shoot, and the other you might treat more like Vets if they were in the Troop slot. When you think about it, these dudes are fantastic deals. For the price, they're not exactly hard to kill though. For 1 T3 4+ wound, you could instead get 2 T3 5+, which is of course more durable. With the same LD, you'd think you'd buy that one upgrade that, for ONLY 5 points, lets you reroll morale tests.

Here's the kicker though: you don't need it! Morale isn't dangerous enough that I would take that over Ignoring Cover.

Wolfram Alpha to the rescue, because I didn't want to work through the formulas:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Prob+x+%3E+19+if+x+is+binomial+with+n+%3D+27++and+p+%3D+.5

Odds of killing 20+ Marines with reroll 1s is 0.95%. As in, .0095

Way outside the first standard deviation. And the second.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
(note, unbuffed it's about 3x10^-*6th*)

You didn't factor in morale, in 10 man squads, which was the whole point. Is your reading comprehension terrible or are you grinding an axe? The whole point is that stacked leadership penalties, in 10 man squads, makes it really easy to remove them.

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:

You...really know nothing about Skitarii? Uh okay here's the basics without posting the codex
1. One of them is 7 points, the other 8
2. For more than an Infantry dude, they get a 4+/6++, BS3+, and a better gun
3. One of these guns is 30", S4, RF1, and has a rule to be AP-1 on a 6 to wound
4. The other gun is 18", S3, Assault 3, and a 6 to wound is D2
5. The one with the Assault gun has a toughness lowering rule, but it's irrelevant
6. Special weapons are an 18" Assault 2 Plasma Gun and a 60" S7 AP-2 DD3 Sniper Rifle. We don't talk about the Arc rifle because it's terrible
7. I don't feel like getting into the FW Dogmas. If you're that interested in how they interact with their army traits, Google it or shoot me a PM. I was doing great with my Skitarii until the army was destroyed.


So as you can imagine, the ones with the longer range would play more akin to Infantry where you camp and shoot, and the other you might treat more like Vets if they were in the Troop slot. When you think about it, these dudes are fantastic deals. For the price, they're not exactly hard to kill though. For 1 T3 4+ wound, you could instead get 2 T3 5+, which is of course more durable. With the same LD, you'd think you'd buy that one upgrade that, for ONLY 5 points, lets you reroll morale tests.

Here's the kicker though: you don't need it! Morale isn't dangerous enough that I would take that over Ignoring Cover.

Ok, so that looks like I could use morale if I needed to, and I certainly could. But because they're quite different than Guard, in a different army, I might be fighting them differently to begin with.

But for the purposes of the original debate, it doesn't look like I'd need to use it to get my points-per-model back when rapid-firing bolters at them.