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 Whirlwind wrote:

 silent25 wrote:
You understand the concept of constant currency? An 11% rise in trade after adjusting for constant currency mean that the effects of the dropping pound have already been taken into account.

Ermmm , yes that is why I wrote
"Trade has gone to 6.6 from 5.8m (8.8 from 5.8m actual). So at constant currency that's an 11% rise. The actual rate is almost certainly to do with the collapsing £ and GW keeping prices the same for people not in the UK"

I'm assuming you got to the second sentence and stopped reading and failed to note that in third sentence I stated "The ***actual*** rate" is to do with the collapsing £?

No, I understood what you said. You seem to say constant currency number are only growing because of the falling pound throughout.

"Product and Supply has gone to 5.0m from 4.7m (6.1m from 4.7m actual). That's a 6.4% rise. Again it appears that the collapsing £ and keeping prices the same is boosting profits."

You claim the collapsing £ is part of that 6.4%. It's statements like that, that made question whether you know what you're talking about.

 silent25 wrote:


No, I understood what you said. You seem to say constant currency number are only growing because of the falling pound throughout.

"Product and Supply has gone to 5.0m from 4.7m (6.1m from 4.7m actual). That's a 6.4% rise. Again it appears that the collapsing £ and keeping prices the same is boosting profits."

You claim the collapsing £ is part of that 6.4%. It's statements like that, that made question whether you know what you're talking about.

OK, I can see that one can cause confusion as the two sentences could be seen as linked when it wasn't the intent. The 6.4% was referring to the constant currency the third sentence was relating this to the actual increase so hence the UK rate drop has effectively increased the profit from this segment by 1.1m. The second/third statements were always meant to be referencing the difference between constant and actual.

Effectively if we only look at constant currency and exclude cost saving measures and royalties then the increase in profits is only relatively modest (after a previous very poor year). It is probably why GW are being cautious because despite some big releases they haven't really recouped from the previous bad year. The large actual increase compared to constant in profit has been dramatically boosted by the declining £, it's artificially giving them a boost because of something outside it's control. However once (if?) this stabilises then growth could very well stagnate again. There was also nearly a million of profit allocated because of changing accounting methods. Conversely if the £ strengthens (or Trump taxes anything that could be made in the US to the hilt) then their actual profits could decline sharply for a short period.

 Whirlwind wrote:

 silent25 wrote:


No, I understood what you said. You seem to say constant currency number are only growing because of the falling pound throughout.

"Product and Supply has gone to 5.0m from 4.7m (6.1m from 4.7m actual). That's a 6.4% rise. Again it appears that the collapsing £ and keeping prices the same is boosting profits."

You claim the collapsing £ is part of that 6.4%. It's statements like that, that made question whether you know what you're talking about.

OK, I can see that one can cause confusion as the two sentences could be seen as linked when it wasn't the intent. The 6.4% was referring to the constant currency the third sentence was relating this to the actual increase so hence the UK rate drop has effectively increased the profit from this segment by 1.1m. The second/third statements were always meant to be referencing the difference between constant and actual.

Effectively if we only look at constant currency and exclude cost saving measures and royalties then the increase in profits is only relatively modest (after a previous very poor year). It is probably why GW are being cautious because despite some big releases they haven't really recouped from the previous bad year. The large actual increase compared to constant in profit has been dramatically boosted by the declining £, it's artificially giving them a boost because of something outside it's control. However once (if?) this stabilises then growth could very well stagnate again. There was also nearly a million of profit allocated because of changing accounting methods. Conversely if the £ strengthens (or Trump taxes anything that could be made in the US to the hilt) then their actual profits could decline sharply for a short period.

NP That is why I was getting confused. I do not see it as negatively as you do because revenue increased healthily for Trade and Retail (11% and 20%). That is good growth for a company that size. These areas have normally been relatively flat and only seen changes at the profit level. Trade is the big one because that means more independents are stocks and selling GW.

*edit* Though I suspect that Forgeworld falls under Retail and not Mail Order. That also could account for the growth there.

Unless they've changed it mid year, FW and BL are reported as mail order.

 silent25 wrote:


NP That is why I was getting confused. I do not see it as negatively as you do because revenue increased healthily for Trade and Retail (11% and 20%). That is good growth for a company that size. These areas have normally been relatively flat and only seen changes at the profit level. Trade is the big one because that means more independents are stocks and selling GW.

*edit* Though I suspect that Forgeworld falls under Retail and not Mail Order. That also could account for the growth there.

That it's decent is not in doubt, more that the actuals are a lot better because of the £. It is both a warning now that the GWs results aren't as amazing as they first appear and also next year when they potentially fall back again is not a disaster. They are still I believe behind from a few years ago though? When you take into account total war/streamlining/adjustments to accountancy (assuming these won't be repeated) and exclude them overall profit increase is about £1.5m, not bad but possibly statistically insignificant (when you compare previous years profit variations)

I'd be cautious about the Retail figures. They note that they've closed 8 and relocated 'some' (it's not specific). That could mean they have reduced expensive overheads (say shops on high rent streets) to lower rent areas (or smaller shops and so on). My suspicion is that a lot of this increase is from this factor. I was cautious and used about a 50% figure because that brings growth roughly in line with the trade increase.

Last years statement specifically stated Forgeworld fell under Mail Order not Retail and that could have changed, but I think they would have probably reported it. IIRC forgeworld made up a massive share of it too (about 30-40% I think).

As for stores, you have also to account the new stores they've opened too, so they are an additional expense that is unlikely to have reported much on their side.

Azreal13 wrote:Was that really necessary?

Hey, just be happy that it wasn't yet another uber pro-AOS rant.

Latest RNS confirms a strong Christmas performance on top of the half year results:

"For immediate release 17 January 2017

Games Workshop is pleased to announce a significant increase in sales and profits for the period from 28 November 2016 to 15 January 2017, compared to the same period last year. In light of the above, and having now finalised the product phasing for the year, profits for 2016/17 are likely to be above market expectations.

Sales and profits have further benefitted from the continuing favourable impact of the weaker pound. However, the Board remains aware that there is some uncertainty in the trading periods ahead for the rest of the 2016/17 financial year.

Games Workshop Group PLC also announces that the Board has today declared a dividend of 30 pence per share. This will be paid on 3 March 2017 for shareholders on the register at 27 January 2017, with an ex-dividend date of 26 January 2017. The last date for elections for the dividend re-investment plan is 10 February 2017."
LINK

This is good news.
If GW plc are actually growing their customer base and selling more product.
They will not have to put prices up to make up for falling sales volumes any more!

So no price rises for the next 2 or 3 years..

 Just Tony wrote:

Azreal13 wrote:Was that really necessary?

Hey, just be happy that it wasn't yet another uber pro-AOS rant.

I'd have been happy hadn't it been a gratuitous attack. I think I don't even need to think wether this comment was necessary or (obviously) not.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Lanrak wrote:
This is good news.
If GW plc are actually growing their customer base and selling more product.
They will not have to put prices up to make up for falling sales volumes any more!

So no price rises for the next 2 or 3 years..

I have very little faith in this statement, though some of the current releases DO feature recuded discounts in comparison to similar products (see bloodreavers versus kayric acolytes).

Lord Kragan wrote:

 Just Tony wrote:

Azreal13 wrote:Was that really necessary?

Hey, just be happy that it wasn't yet another uber pro-AOS rant.

I'd have been happy hadn't it been a gratuitous attack. I think I don't even need to think wether this comment was necessary or (obviously) not.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Lanrak wrote:
This is good news.
If GW plc are actually growing their customer base and selling more product.
They will not have to put prices up to make up for falling sales volumes any more!

So no price rises for the next 2 or 3 years..

I have very little faith in this statement, though some of the current releases DO feature recuded discounts in comparison to similar products (see bloodreavers versus kayric acolytes).

There is a difference between a "gratituous attack" and a lighthearted jab. I would love to demonstrate, but I'm sure mods would swoop in over it. That, and seeing as how aggressive you get when someone makes light of how aggressively you defend AOS, I can only imagine how you would respond to a genuine "gratituous attack".


We're just kicking off the year, and not counting the Spire of Dawn release, what has AOS gotten? Those Tzeentch cultists? Some stuff that can go either 40K or AOS? And also I'm wondering if they've pulled down all the 8th edition books yet from GW's storefront. I'm also waiting to see if starter bundles and possibly battalion/battleforce sets start to see more widespread release. Or even something like the transport/squad bundles. I think at this rate they will double down on what is working, so the release schedule will probably echo that really soon.

Lanrak wrote:
This is good news.
If GW plc are actually growing their customer base and selling more product.
They will not have to put prices up to make up for falling sales volumes any more!

So no price rises for the next 2 or 3 years..

The word naïve falls short here.

Either that, or my sarcasm detector is not working well today

@Korinov.
I was pointing out that if GW plc actually made a profit off increased sales this year,because of out side influences.
That GW plc still have not fixed the core issues with their ' business plan'.

As some of the pro GW crowd are singing the praises of the new C.E.O for 'righting the ship.'
I simply wanted to point out the acid test of what a 'fixed GW plc' would actually do because it made sense for them to do it.

(Plastic manufacture heavily rewards the sales direction of economies of scale.EG high sales volumes= more profit.Raising prices to restrict sales is counter intuitive to the basic premise of plastic manufacture.AFAIK ONLY GW plc do this.)

El Torro wrote:
£13 million profit over the last 6 months is pretty crazy, they seem to be doing something right. A lot of that will be due to the weak pound, though the statement does say that sales and profit are up when comparing like for like currencies.

Its not astonishing. They definitely did something right during the last year.
It seems that supplement books with formations in it are what players and other GW enthusiasts prefer these days.

Lanrak wrote:
@Korinov.
I was pointing out that if GW plc actually made a profit off increased sales this year,because of out side influences.
That GW plc still have not fixed the core issues with their ' business plan'.

As some of the pro GW crowd are singing the praises of the new C.E.O for 'righting the ship.'
I simply wanted to point out the acid test of what a 'fixed GW plc' would actually do because it made sense for them to do it.

(Plastic manufacture heavily rewards the sales direction of economies of scale.EG high sales volumes= more profit.Raising prices to restrict sales is counter intuitive to the basic premise of plastic manufacture.AFAIK ONLY GW plc do this.)

Oh don't worry PP will do this soon enough. They are following a lot of GW practices of late.

@Davor.
What sort of practices do you think PP will take from GW plc?

Price per model is at parity in the U.K. at least, if not more for PP stuff.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Price per model is at parity in the U.K. at least, if not more for PP stuff.

Do you need as many models for an army as you do for 40k?

 Fenrir Kitsune wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Price per model is at parity in the U.K. at least, if not more for PP stuff.

Do you need as many models for an army as you do for 40k?

Are PP models of comparable quality ?

To someone that puts amount of money paid for the game as a top priority, model quality doesn't matter.

morgoth wrote:

 Fenrir Kitsune wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Price per model is at parity in the U.K. at least, if not more for PP stuff.

Do you need as many models for an army as you do for 40k?

Are PP models of comparable quality ?

Don't know. Probably.

 Fenrir Kitsune wrote:

morgoth wrote:

 Fenrir Kitsune wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Price per model is at parity in the U.K. at least, if not more for PP stuff.

Do you need as many models for an army as you do for 40k?

Are PP models of comparable quality ?

Don't know. Probably.

Metals and resin- absolutely.

Plastics(PVC) Nope. Works okay for beasts but is fething terrible for jacks IMO. Plus the problem of putting mould lines in bad places.
Plastics (HIPS) Not as good as GW, but getting there. Have been a few problems (see Desert Hydra) but on the whole on par with GW kits from about 8-10 years ago IMO.

Ruin wrote:


Metals and resin- absolutely.

Plastics(PVC) Nope. Works okay for beasts but is fething terrible for jacks IMO. Plus the problem of putting mould lines in bad places.
Plastics (HIPS) Not as good as GW, but getting there. Have been a few problems (see Desert Hydra) but on the whole on par with GW kits from about 8-10 years ago IMO.

I would just add a caveat to the metal and resin. It common to get a kit with horrendous mold slip. QC at PP is non-existant. When I do hobby stuff at the local game store it's at a table with a bunch of work for hires and they do a lot of PP stuff. Having to tell clients they need to exchange a kit because the kit has a 1mm mold slip is not uncommon.

With the PVC, yea atrocious. A nightmare to clean when I was trying to put together Cephalyx. Some of the local WMH players lament that PP blew their chance to bring a bunch of new people in with Mark 3 when they kept the starter kits PVC. One guy threw out the cryx starter because it was so bad.

PP is falling behind in the industry regarding figure quality. They are being leapfrogged by much smaller companies.

PP is doing great with their rules, that they can't get their act together with production remains mind blowing.

 Fenrir Kitsune wrote:

morgoth wrote:

 Fenrir Kitsune wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Price per model is at parity in the U.K. at least, if not more for PP stuff.

Do you need as many models for an army as you do for 40k?

Are PP models of comparable quality ?

Don't know. Probably.

Yes. Both lines have advantages, and the differences are fairly subtle.

Metal minis are far better than GW's finecast, and metal makes up most units. PP's designs tend to have more detail on them.

PVC plastic has mold lines where GW's stuff doesn't, but assembles in a lot fewer parts that don't lose detail/flatten toward mold line (flexible molds give similar results to metal casting). Works best on warbeasts (GW's HIPS plastic does worst on its organic shapes, generally giving them an inorganic look that's perfect for robots or tanks).

I haven't bought any of PP's HIPS kits.

PP resin is really nice to work with. I have a hard time saying anything bad about them. Really, their resin is super nice (in a way that Finecast really isn't). I have experienced none of the troubles the previous poster referred to.


And for pricing- PP prices are more solid across the board. GW will have a character that costs $35, and a unit of ten troopers that cost $45. PP's prices are based on the mini's weight/size directly, and so large units tend to cost more than GW, and characters cost a lot less.

And price per average sized army- PP is an order of magnitude cheaper (I've done the math, including a lot of swappables for a PP army).

 odinsgrandson wrote:



And for pricing- PP prices are more solid across the board. GW will have a character that costs $35, and a unit of ten troopers that cost $45. PP's prices are based on the mini's weight/size directly, and so large units tend to cost more than GW, and characters cost a lot less.

And price per average sized army- PP is an order of magnitude cheaper (I've done the math, including a lot of swappables for a PP army).

I wouldn't say that with current releases. 10 PVC infantry for $50 US is common with PP releases. Their plastic colossals/gargantuans are $110 each and they are no where the size or complexity of the larger/similarly priced GW kit. Only seen the Convergence kit in the flesh, but the Desert Hydra is getting a lot of hate right now for it's price vs Size/Quality. It might be cheaper to start, but lower quality figures doesn't help and can render that point moot.

Lanrak wrote:
@Davor.
What sort of practices do you think PP will take from GW plc?

Well seeing how in Warmahordes 3.0 is, we now have more story telling than "balls to the wall" play. More scenarios and more terrain now. PP limiting sales on what stores can sell or do like GW did, but on a much less massive scale. How they are doing YouTube videos like GW now. (To be fair maybe they had it and I just didn't notice it until GW started doing them.) Now I could be wrong here, but I never noticed PP knives, and PP snips before. So I am guess they copied GW that way now as well. 5 year edition changes so people current people have to buy new products. (again this in not bad, because as a business, how do you keep people buying once they have everything correct?)

While they supposedly have spent lots of time making and testing a new edition, Just like GW it can be poorly received and a lot of people stop playing or buying. Something like what happened with GW 6th edition. I am not saying this is a direct copy but just seems like it's "following the footsteps" by accident in this case.

Games seem to be getting bigger and bigger, and more minis are needed to be bought to play bigger games. Again, not a complaint just seeing a similarity. Before Warmahordes seem to be played with not many miniatures, but now it seems games are bigger because more miniatures are on the board now, and they are even bigger now as well.

While I say PP is copying GW, I should have said they are copying them in mild ways, but seem to be following what they do, but on a much lesser scale or not as harsh. Sorry if what I said came out as a negative, I didn't mean it like that, just seeing what PP is going through right now, it seems GW has done it first, good or bad. So since I see PP following GW steps, I wouldn't be surprised if PP raises prices to restrict sales. I am not saying PP will do this, but seeing after how much they are copying GW they might do this inadvertadly somehow.

I don't play Warmahordes and only really know about it tangentially.

However, there are always some things to keep in mind. They Changed It Now It Sucks is such a thing that there's several pages on TVtropes about it. The tabletop games section even mentions warmahordes...

Doing youtube videos is quite simply a good idea, more companies should be doing them. Fantasy Flight Games do their main tutorials on how to play theirs via youtube. Nurturing community engagement and Social Media is a Big Thing in modern business.

Privateer Press in recent years had been very much receiving negative press about the whole "play like you've got a pair" tagline and concept. Not just because it was putting people off of the game but was also generating a toxic atmosphere that was not conducive to growth of the company.

That was an interesting read Compel. Thanks for that link.

I think PP wish they were GW and the bigger they get the greedier they will be.
I will be amazed if they ever reach GW levels without becoming far worse.
And with all the small players out there, they're hardly the only ones trying to take the market, and already showing signs of weakness compared to smaller entities.

I personally think GW would have an easier time making a game comparable to WMH, than PP making good miniatures and becoming as popular.

After all, it isn't really hard to make a WMH type game, i.e. big skirmish, interactive and updated very frequently to minimize the perception of imbalance.

Even showing 1000 or 800 point games, providing online rules which are frequently updated and gradually streamlined would very quickly close the gap.

The thing is, one of the main reason WMH is successful is because people want to try something else than GW... and that's not much of a long term position to hold.

GW have shown disdain for balanced rules writing for as long as I've been gaming (we'll call it Rogue Trader days). It would take a large paradigm (and priority) shift for them to have a good rules set to go with their minis. At least as big a change as for Privateer Press to change their minis (although- they've been changing them already- they have a history of figuring out new materials over a series of kits).




* Privateer Press got big on a lot more than being "not Games Workshop." There were plenty of not-GW games that had a lot more steam behind them back when PP was building up (Wargods, Dark Age, Confrontation and Battletech at least).

They built their empire off of having good rules, good fluff and good minis. The other minor players were each lacking in one category or another.


The trouble they have run into is that the market has diversified and improved, and they're not in a position to adapt easily. Actually, GW has run into a lot of the same issues.

That's why we're seeing board games from both companies. It is why the old world got nuked (watch out Imperium, you're next). It is why the new Warmahordes rules are a free download as well. In fact, I'm pretty sure that's why they're going with the constant errata updating system they've got in place (an interesting experiment- I wonder how it is going for them).

PP have gotten rid of their "Play like you've got a pair" slogan, because it was turning people away from their games (they dropped it when they went to 2nd edition). A lot of their early rhetoric was sort of an attack on GW, and they've really moved past that.



But industry standards of fluff, minis and rules have all gotten better and more diverse, and there are some very small players who have been able to put out some really stellar products. I play GW games and Privateer Press games, but I often find myself drawn to some of the smaller companies and their very cool games/minis. The market is really great right now for a small company that doesn't need a huge market share to survive (thank you Kickstarter).

If you want to play a good game with the best of all minis, I'd recommend either Kingdom Death or Arena Rex (ok, I haven't played Arena Rex, but the minis are fantastic).