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2016/03/24 21:20:49
Subject: How many gauss shots to kill a wraith knight - math me
Whereswaldo wrote: How many regular gauss shots to kill a wraith knight, no bonuses from preferred enemy / stalker +1 BS bubble.
Thanks
Assuming 3+ armor and no FNP:
For a Necron warrior, one out of (2/3 (to hit roll) X 1/6 (to wound roll) X 1/3 (3+ armor save) X 1/5 (5 wounds)) shot would deal a lethal shot to a wraithknight. This comes out to 2/270 or 1/135.
It would take 135 gauss shots, on average, to kill a wraithknight.
And no amount of boltgun shots will kill a wraithknight.
Yes, I know it's ridiculous. Yes, wraithknights need to be nerfed.
Feth wraithknights.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2016/03/24 21:44:24
2016/03/24 21:43:00
Subject: How many gauss shots to kill a wraith knight - math me
I make it 40.5* shots to get 1 wound. Do wraithknights not have 6 wounds, and so need 243 shots?
[1/[[2/3] * [1/6] * [1/3] * [2/3]] = [1 / [chance of hitting * chance of wounding * chance of getting through armour * chance of getting through FNP ]] That makes the (unlikely) assumption that the Wraithknight has no cover/invulnerable save.
EDIT: Ninjas...
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/03/24 22:01:24
2016/03/24 22:02:09
Subject: How many gauss shots to kill a wraith knight - math me
"'players must agree how they are going to select their armies, and if any restrictions apply to the number and type of models they can use."
This is an actual rule in the actual rulebook. Quit whining about how you can imagine someone's army touching you in a bad place and play by the actual rules.
Freelance Ontologist
When people ask, "What's the point in understanding everything?" they've just disqualified themselves from using questions and should disappear in a puff of paradox. But they don't understand and just continue existing, which are also their only two strategies for life.
2016/03/24 22:07:26
Subject: Re:How many gauss shots to kill a wraith knight - math me
2/3 (hit) X 1/6 (wound) X 1/3 (armor) X 2/3 (FNP) X 1/6 (6 wounds) = 4/972 = 1/243.
Every 243rd shot should kill that wraithknight.
You want even more obscene calculations? Consider the following computations for Krak missile launchers (S8, AP 3) on a tactical marine (not assuming combat doctrines or the use of a signum):
2/3 (hit) X 1/2 (wound) X 2/3 (FNP) X 1/6 = 4/108 = 2/54 = 1/27.
It would take 27 shots with krak missiles to kill a wraithknight. That's slightly more than 2 full rounds of shooting with 3 devoted devastator squads with 4 missile launchers a piece.
That's 3 units worth 130 points each (390 points total).
BUT THE WRAITHKNIGHT ONLY COSTS 295 PPM!
Tell me that's not fething obscene.
The wraithknight, at bare minimum, should cost 400 ppm, not counting upgrades.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2016/03/24 22:08:47
2016/03/24 22:13:16
Subject: Re:How many gauss shots to kill a wraith knight - math me
Note, of course, that these are just the laws of averages.
It's possible for a guass weapon to kill a wraithknight in 6 shots. If you only roll 6s and your opponent only rolls 1s, the wraithknight dies very quickly.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2016/03/24 22:18:21
2016/03/25 00:38:12
Subject: Re:How many gauss shots to kill a wraith knight - math me
Note, of course, that these are just the laws of averages.
It's possible for a guass weapon to kill a wraithknight in 6 shots. If you only roll 6s and your opponent only rolls 1s, the wraithknight dies very quickly.
And what's the mathematical possibility of THAT?
Here's to me in my sober mood,
When I ramble, sit, and think.
Here's to me in my drunken mood,
When I gamble, sin, and drink.
And when my days are over,
And from this world I pass,
I hope they bury me upside down,
So the world can kiss my ass!
2016/03/25 00:50:32
Subject: Re:How many gauss shots to kill a wraith knight - math me
Note, of course, that these are just the laws of averages.
It's possible for a guass weapon to kill a wraithknight in 6 shots. If you only roll 6s and your opponent only rolls 1s, the wraithknight dies very quickly.
And what's the mathematical possibility of THAT?
Getting 6 6s to hit, 6 6s to wound, and then having the opponent roll 6 1s on armor and 6 1s on FNP?
It's 1/6 to the 24th power. Basically, multiply 6 by itself 24 times, and then put a 1 over that.
It's....1/4,738,381,338,321,616,896
Though, I wish to stress this point:
It's still more likely than wounding a wraithknight with a boltgun.
The statistical probability of that is exactly 0.
Thus, I repeat: I PROTEST!
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2016/03/25 01:06:46
2016/03/25 01:01:32
Subject: Re:How many gauss shots to kill a wraith knight - math me
It would take 27 shots with krak missiles to kill a wraithknight. ...
Tell me that's not fething obscene.
The wraithknight, at bare minimum, should cost 400 ppm, not counting upgrades.
It takes 54 krak missiles to kill an Imperial Knight. Should they be 700 points now too?
No. Your math is accurate, everything else isn't.
"'players must agree how they are going to select their armies, and if any restrictions apply to the number and type of models they can use."
This is an actual rule in the actual rulebook. Quit whining about how you can imagine someone's army touching you in a bad place and play by the actual rules.
Freelance Ontologist
When people ask, "What's the point in understanding everything?" they've just disqualified themselves from using questions and should disappear in a puff of paradox. But they don't understand and just continue existing, which are also their only two strategies for life.
2016/03/25 01:07:59
Subject: Re:How many gauss shots to kill a wraith knight - math me
Note, of course, that these are just the laws of averages.
It's possible for a guass weapon to kill a wraithknight in 6 shots. If you only roll 6s and your opponent only rolls 1s, the wraithknight dies very quickly.
And what's the mathematical possibility of THAT?
Getting 6 6s to hit, 6 6s to wound, and then having the opponent roll 6 1s on armor and 6 1s on FNP?
It's 1/6 to the 24th power. Basically, multiply 6 by itself 24 times, and then put a 1 over that.
It's....1/4,738,381,338,321,616,896
Though, I wish to stress this point:
It's still more likely than wounding a wraithknight with a boltgun.
The statistical probability of that is exactly 0.
Thus, I repeat: I PROTEST!
Its not 1/6 to the 24th power. First of all it would only be to the 5th power (don't know where you get 24th power from) and even then that not how you calculate probability.
The odds of getting a wound through on a single shot is 2.469%. With that you take 6 trials (6 shots) and need 6 success and you get 0.0001% chance of killing a Wraithknight with 6 gauss shots.. WAAAY different then your ridiculous fraction
2016/03/25 04:08:17
Subject: Re:How many gauss shots to kill a wraith knight - math me
CrownAxe wrote:Its not 1/6 to the 24th power. First of all it would only be to the 5th power (don't know where you get 24th power from) and even then that not how you calculate probability.
The odds of getting a wound through on a single shot is 2.469%. With that you take 6 trials (6 shots) and need 6 success and you get 0.0001% chance of killing a Wraithknight with 6 gauss shots.. WAAAY different then your ridiculous fraction
The question was what the odds were for the Necron player rolling all 6s and the Eldar player rolling all 1s:
The Necron player has (1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6) (to hit) X (1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6) (to wound) chance of rolling all 6s.
The eldar player has: (1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6) (armor save) X (1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6 X 1/6) (Feel No Pain) chance of rolling all 1s.
Thus, 1/6 to the 24th power.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/03/25 04:10:21
2016/03/25 04:34:27
Subject: How many gauss shots to kill a wraith knight - math me
Here are some calculations I did of Tau weapons against a Wraithknight a while ago... should give some insight here as well.
Automatically Appended Next Post: Taking down a Wraithknight.. why it sucks so much
Spoiler:
So this has been coming up recently on many forums and groups I watch. Most effective way to handle a Wriathknight or Stormsurge? Well had some time so I did some numbers. Tau surprisingly have a hard time dealing with GMC despite our heavy firepower. Of course I am considering 0 D-missiles (not everyone uses a stormsurge themselves).
*Note: No invisibility, BS5 cause markerlights, no ethereal, no fireblade, no darkstrider; you need 9 damage because 5+ FNP
I thought this was pretty interesting. Comparing shield and w/o CIBs offer decent approaches to both because of the s7 wounding on 5s. It is just crazy at the amount of firepower you need to take one of these down.. and its under 400 points.. ugh
Additionally you would need 11 crisis suits with fusion to commit, or 9 with plasma (assuming rapid range which I computed for). Taking one down in 1 go is not worth trying, the amount of damage you can do to other units in the army is far more effective.
Stormsurge w/ shield: ***I only did shield because why would be not have one. 8 WOUNDS! 12 damage cause FNP
Notice the RoF vs Ap debate in action here. The burst cannons and plasmas take about the same number of suits/weapons to do the same task, one throws more dice, the other has low ap. The WK 5s and 6s wound the same on T8. On the surge the better invul makes up for the easier wounding. Very interesting.
I initially suspected the Surge was more vulnerable then the WK but as this shows it takes more low AP and less RoF to kill the Surge when compared to the WK. And as you can see, Tau struggles in this area greatly.. it will take multiple turns committing units to this task.. and shows the issue with GMC in general.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2016/03/25 11:02:22
So yeah.. next to D weapons, space marine players have the best anti GMC/MC weapon in the game.. so there should be near no complaints
Automatically Appended Next Post:
commander dante wrote: Can you see how many Heavy Destroyer shots it would take to kill a WK?
Both with and Without the formation that allows them to Reroll to wound
Give a man a fish.. teach a man to fish.. etc etc
So how was I figuring out the calculations? well its easier to start backwards... and to simplify. As stated a WK has 5+ FNP and 6 wounds.. so right there you know you need to deal 9 damage averagely (14 if 5++ invul and 27 if 3+ armor can be taken on top of FNP).
So knowing this... use the following.
x => # of hits Pw => Probability of wounding Pw' =>Probability of not wounding no rerolls x (Pw) = damage ... for example a s8 weapon has a 1/2 chance of wounding.
rerolls to wound x - x(Pw) + x(Pw)(Pw') = damage
To figure out how many shots from the number of hits it is the same equations replace "damage" with "hits" and x=>"number of shots"
Automatically Appended Next Post: OH I forgot to mention... it appears on paper you need the nearly the same amount of "shots" between say a grav and melta but it is important to think about how many shots those weapons have...
a melta is a single shot.. so 20 shots means 20 meltas
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