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The flu cases are also spread in the timelapse of 4-5 months, from normally late september-october to february.

This is happening in the timelapse of 10 days. In Italy, aprox 2,3k people have died on a relatively small area in less than 18 days.


And many of them were "young" people. The first case, a 38 yeard old man spent 15 years hospitaliced with respirators. This is not the end of the world. But take it seriously people, really. The world doesnt stops and loses billions of dollars for a flu. Remember the porcine flu. It was the GREAT FLU and it was nothing more than histeria.

This isn't.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I'm going to work in the office tomorrow, and work from home for the rest of the week, probably.

I was sure we'd be working from home by now at my job, but no, here I am in the office.

Difficulty: I work in a job that regularly works from home.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I think you meant to PM that


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Oh, you got it.

I'm so sorry guys, I fat fingered things and deleted ced's post by mistake!

And yep, sent you a PM Ouze, as requested

Ced's post: yet another Coronavirus fatality.

*presses F to pay respects to Ced*

 Togusa wrote:

Cronch wrote:
You can't protect the immuno-deficient and elderly without taking precautions yourself.
Also, 2-3 compared to flu's 0,1-0,2 is a pretty decent jump, don't you think? For a country the size of UK, that's 300 thousand dead, give or take a few thousand.

There aren't 300K dead in the UK. Don't spread nonsense like that, the WW death toll according to the WHO for the 15th of March (most recent data) says that still fewer than 6K have died. Only ten deaths were recorded in China yesterday.

Of course there are not 300k dead right now. I thought it'd be kind of obvious to understand the post is speculative, to give comparison of flu vs covid mortality rates, and not statement of current situation?

My club has closed its doors following Bo Jo's recommendation.
We already have paid for the hall so we are all donating despite not being able to play which sucks.. Not sure how its going to work out long term but we might loose the venue if we cant cough up.

Also made a decision not to go to the gym, pool or sauna for the foreseeable future which sucks big time.

A lot of businesses are fudged because the uk GOV has made a recommendation and not a mandate. Meaning they cant claim for insurance (and then in turn mega claim for reassurance from the gov down the line).
Many pubs were struggling already so this will be a death knell for a bunch of small businesses sadly. :( So I guess more Tesco expresses and MCDonalds drive thrus instead.
Frustrating the gov is not stepping up. Some countries have pledged funds in order to support vulnerable business.

Its certainly seems to be something more severe than flu.
My old man is at double risk group 60+ and pre existing poulminary condition so Im pretty worried about him.

Missus works in a hospital in south Manchester , 2 people died tonight of covid (so far) , one was 60+ with respiratory problems , other was 40+ with no known issues.... apparently loads of staff have called in “sick” due to fear as well . Worrying times

Bran Dawri wrote:
@ Scorgar: Um, a theory IS a tested hypothesis.

If you'd prefer, it is a hypothesis, but not a tested one.

In any case, some numbers that I mostly just googled off various government sites, because I'm seeing some wild ones thrown about:
Worldwide confirmed cases: 95,000+. Death toll currently 7000+. That's well over the 3% everybody keeps throwing about. I suspect because that 3% is already taking into account some significant number of unreported/unconfirmed cases.

We know everybody who died, we don't know everybody who has it. With more substantial testing, the mortality rate will only go down as we learn more and more people have it, but did not die from it.

In the Netherlands, about 50% of those hospitalised with severe symptoms are below 50 years of age. Then again, the average age of actual casualties was as of this morning 79 years old. Some 25 people dead out of ~1400+ confirmed cases there, but numbers are rising rapidly.

In the Netherlands, 1 in 4 people smoke (about 4 million people - and that's down from 40% in 2000). France also said half the hospitalized were under 50, but France has nearly 1 in 3 people smoking and 18 million smokers. People who smoke 20 cigarettes or more a day are three times more likely to develop pneumonia. Smokers have high rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and are at a much higher risk for ANY respiratory disease. Smoking is probably just as important to this disease as age, as far as hospitalization goes.

That overtaxing, by the way, is the point of closing down most public gathering places including restaurants - not to stop the disease from spreading - that's a lost battle at this point - but to slow the spread so hospitals and other care facilities aren't overrun and the system can cope with the additional care needed and buy time for a vaccine to be developed.

I would be very wary of any vaccine developed in haste. The original Salk polio vaccine, approved in a record 2 hours time, was poorly made by Cutter Industries (it did not completely kill the virus) and ended up giving 40,000 children polio, paralyzing 160, and killing 10. And here's a 60 Minutes segment on the 4,000 people suing after getting neurological damage from a Swine flu vaccine in 1976 - the primary complaint being that they knew the vaccine had serious side effects, which they intentionally hid from the people.

A proper vaccine takes time to develop, and it needs to be properly tested, which takes even more time. We're talking years here. Rushing something like that out to the public without proper testing could be more devastating than the disease. Most likely, as viral outbreaks tend to be seasonal, the coronavirus will naturally subside during the summer months without outside influence.

Honestly, I think all this talk of a vaccine is really just an attempt to calm the markets. It's never going to get here in time to make a difference - and I agree, testing should not be rushed. My guess is 2 years absolute minimum.

Contrasting East Asian mortality figures (outside of Hubei) with Western numbers is meaningless. Mortality rates don't exist in isolation. We're not dealing with 'what is the mortality rate of of Covid-19?'. We're dealing with 'what is the mortality rate of Covid-19 in the context of available medical treatment'.

East Asia has a) learnt from SARS and swine flu and got on this FAST; b) has mothballed SARS facilities that could be instantly utilised; and c) has many available ICU beds.

Nowhere in the west has those things. When beds are full and isolated treatment facilities and quarantine spaces are overun, those mortality rates go up. Quickly.

Everything I've read points to the opposite, that mortality rates will likely be lower for more developed countries, for pretty obvious reasons.

Of course, if the response is too slow and they get overwhelmed, it'd be a different story. But the response here since last week has been pretty dramatic. Here's hoping it's enough to stem the tide / flatten the curve enough to manage it.

Edit: Ah, maybe you're referring to South Korea (from a post last page) in which case that makes more sense. "East Asia" threw me off

Roberts84 wrote:

 Dr Coconut wrote:

Orlanth wrote:l if I am unable to isolate myself during travel. Which is not unlikely as I have no right to expect people not to sit next to me on the train.

London by train!!! suicide mission. Go by bike. Sunlight kills the virus- bike puts you out in the light. You travel solo, so no one sneezing and coughing over you. Plenty of air movement reduces the risk- sorry officer, I had to do the ton around North Circular for ventilation You're well protected in leathers, boots, gloves and helmet- no need for stupid pointless mask

The mask isn't pointless. The mask he has will, 100%, prevent aerosol transmission.

And it has a visor. I bought the 3M 6800.

As for travelling to London by bike, nice idea, but I am currently on the Welsh borders, and do not drive.

Soo i had to fill out a telecommuting agreement for my work from todays date, to the same date in 2021....
and my job cant be done via telecommuting........barely...

I work for one of the biggest “big box” stores in the US. We are out of everything anyone could conceivably want from us during a pandemic. The government is recommending gatherings of no more than 10 people and we already have one employee out with potential COVID-19 infection.

But do we close? Of course not. CEOs need to wake the feth up, forego their 3rd vacation of the year and take care of the staff that make them billionaires.

 Ouze wrote:
Ced's post: yet another Coronavirus fatality.

ROTFLMAO -- RiTides wrote me a courteous letter, so no problems. I'll just copypasta what I just wrote on Beasts of War.

We have a vaccine for influenza.
We do not have a vaccine for CoVid.

IMO, THAT is the difference between “the flu” and the coronavirus. Even though a flu vaccine isn’t always effective, it makes transmission of a virus more difficult. Not only can fewer people catch a virus if there’s a vaccine, the people who can catch the virus are spread out further, in effect, keeping that 6′ distance away from someone who’s infected. This also means that those who don’t have a flu shot still benefit from the vaccine because others are immune. This is called “herd immunity”. Moooo.

I really wish this was stressed better by the media and government. CoVid isn’t measles, but “In the decade before 1963 when a vaccine became available, nearly all children got measles by the time they were 15 years of age. It is estimated 3 to 4 million people in the United States were infected each year. Also each year, among reported cases, an estimated 400 to 500 people died, 48,000 were hospitalized, and 1,000 suffered encephalitis (swelling of the brain) from measles. ... widespread use of measles vaccine drastically reduced the disease rates. By 1981, the number of reported measles cases was 80% less compared with the previous year."

That’s a lot of hospital beds, and I’m still looking for studies about the long-term effects of CoVid on patients who have recovered. If we assume the lungs recover from CoVid like they do from smoking after quitting, odds may be pretty good, since your lungs do heal after quitting. CoVid deaths in China are higher in males, possibly because of the high rate of males smoking in China, and low rates by women. The ban on smoking in the USA started in 2003, so I imagine we're actually better off than if the virus hit the USA alongside the Y2K bug.

Thankfully vaccine research has already started, and, hopefully, we’ll eventually have a vaccine. Right now, the SF Bay Area has "ordered" self-isolation and the opening of only essential services (eg. groceries, banks, and, yes, laundromats). While I wish our local governments released this statement back in January, it's at least some sort of vote of confidence, even if it doesn't really do anything more than what those who prepared are already doing. (Schools are finally closed, so that's a step in the right direction. Nothing better than having that kid get the parents infected, then the parents spreading it all over the office.)

Vaccination and measles: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/history.html#:~:text=In%201963%2C%20John%20Enders%20and,colleagues%2C%20began%20to%20be%20distributed.

Overnight my company changed its stance to work at home until further notice if you can.

Fortunately I have a laptop and a VPN toekn, and I borrowed a MiFi unit, so I'm okay as long as the mobile phone signal is good.

I'll take the opportunity to pop out first thing for food. The local supermarket was stripped pretty bare last night. Panic buying has accelerated in the UK thanks to 'rational' panic buyers who are now panic buying because they've seen 10 days of stuff being out of stock.

 Sqorgar wrote:

 Ouze wrote:
You sure about that math, buddy?

It was already corrected before you responded. Even at 2%, you have to factor in that the US is simply not testing people for coronavirus in a sufficient quantity unless they are already exhibiting severe symptoms, so the numbers are biased considerably - even then, it is still less than the quoted 3%.

Edit: The US has tested 8,554, or 26 tests per million people.

And what happens when health system gets totally overwhelmed and people have to be abandoned?

For fun tidbit. UK gov is working with numbers 80% gets infected(which will overwhelm NHS big time. Especially as they have less seats related to size of population than Italy which already got overswamped and they have to abandon elderly sick people to their faith. Go home and good luck) and 3% mortality rate.

Hair rising. That's what UK gov expects to happen.


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 RiTides wrote:
Everything I've read points to the opposite, that mortality rates will likely be lower for more developed countries, for pretty obvious reasons.

Of course, if the response is too slow and they get overwhelmed, it'd be a different story. But the response here since last week has been pretty dramatic. Here's hoping it's enough to stem the tide / flatten the curve enough to manage it.

Edit: Ah, maybe you're referring to South Korea (from a post last page) in which case that makes more sense. "East Asia" threw me off

China had tons of facilities for this kind of thing ready for use. They had no qualms locking down the place right away. They had production capability and supplies to deal with it(And send tons of stuff to Italy to help them out along with 9 experts).

Italy meanwhile is already overrun with beds. They don't HAVE enough beds. Not even close. UK is in even worse shape so unless they can keep infection rate lower than italy they will be hit by overload even worse. There's less beds and intense care equipment per population in UK than in Italy(worryingly so is Finland...). Not sure what's the status is in US but seeing they don't have public healthcare for all wouldn't expect them to have relatively more(maybe absolutely more but bigger population as well) and how many can afford care who needs it...

China had better chance to deal with this than in many western country. They have had experience with this for one and bigger resources.

In other news doctors are looking at using blood transfers from recovered people much like century ago when there were no vaccines when it was used with reasonable effect to combat symptoms for worst hit. China has already had some good results with that. And as it's technique used before technology is already there and less legal issues.

 Sqorgar wrote:

Bran Dawri wrote:
@ Scorgar: Um, a theory IS a tested hypothesis.

If you'd prefer, it is a hypothesis, but not a tested one.

Much better, thank you. Or you could say it's a hypothesis, not a theory.

In any case, some numbers that I mostly just googled off various government sites, because I'm seeing some wild ones thrown about:
Worldwide confirmed cases: 95,000+. Death toll currently 7000+. That's well over the 3% everybody keeps throwing about. I suspect because that 3% is already taking into account some significant number of unreported/unconfirmed cases.

We know everybody who died, we don't know everybody who has it. With more substantial testing, the mortality rate will only go down as we learn more and more people have it, but did not die from it.

Yes? I said as much, and pointed out - which you completely ignored- that the mortality rate by the numbers is significantly higher (>7%) than the reported rate of 3%, which can only mean that that 3% does, in fact, take unreported cases into account, presumably by way of statistics.

In the Netherlands, 1 in 4 people smoke (about 4 million people - and that's down from 40% in 2000). France also said half the hospitalized were under 50, but France has nearly 1 in 3 people smoking and 18 million smokers. People who smoke 20 cigarettes or more a day are three times more likely to develop pneumonia. Smokers have high rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and are at a much higher risk for ANY respiratory disease. Smoking is probably just as important to this disease as age, as far as hospitalization goes.

I'm not so sure. Going by your numbers, France has 33% more smokers than the the Netherlands, but not a commensurate increase of under-50s hospitalised

That, by the way, is the point of closing down most public gathering places including restaurants - not to stop the disease from spreading - that's a lost battle at this point - but to slow the spread so hospitals and other care facilities aren't overrun and the system can cope with the additional care needed and buy time for a vaccine to be developed.

I would be very wary of any vaccine developed in haste. The original Salk polio vaccine, approved in a record 2 hours time, was poorly made by Cutter Industries (it did not completely kill the virus) and ended up giving 40,000 children polio, paralyzing 160, and killing 10. And here's a 60 Minutes segment on the 4,000 people suing after getting neurological damage from a Swine flu vaccine in 1976 - the primary complaint being that they knew the vaccine had serious side effects, which they intentionally hid from the people.

A proper vaccine takes time to develop, and it needs to be properly tested, which takes even more time. We're talking years here. Rushing something like that out to the public without proper testing could be more devastating than the disease. Most likely, as viral outbreaks tend to be seasonal, the coronavirus will naturally subside during the summer months without outside influence.

I think thats a (potentially politically motivated) baseless accusation against the UK government. Theres a reason for the response being taken. just because its not the same as other countries, doesnt mean its wrong. Simple common sense would suggest that it wouldnt really be pertinent to indirectly kill off your voter base.

The measures being taken here are to, as best as reasonably practicable, protect the at risk groups, whilst simultaneously ensuring that those required to keep things running (NHS, emergency response, military, supply chain logistics, grocery stores etc) are still available to perform those jobs. otherwise the country will grind to a halt, with no one able to receive treatment.

I've just been to the shop on my unit. good stocks of most things. Bread section was desolate and beans and chopped tomatoes are limited to 1 per customer, although I'll probably go and get some more tomorrow. all other canned goods are not limited. I suppose thats one benefit of living in whats essentially a gated community.

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
I think thats a (potentially politically motivated) baseless accusation against the UK government. Theres a reason for the response being taken. just because its not the same as other countries, doesnt mean its wrong. Simple common sense would suggest that it wouldnt really be pertinent to indirectly kill off your voter base.

The publications now creeping out seem to imply that it was wrong*, but I don't think it was disingenuous. Vallance and Whitty are experts and I believe government were following their advice, but their advice appears to have been rooted in problematic data and incorrect assumptions.

We'll see when the full data is published and scrutinised, though they seem to be suggesting that's weeks away.

*in terms of fighting the virus as a mathematical problem - I still think they may have been working with solid assumptions about human behaviour in sustained quarantine and I still have deep worries about the quarantined repercussions for socially vulnerable groups.

Big development; Scientists here in Australia have re-engineered a SARS vaccine to make it effective against COVID-19. It doesn't grant immunity, but it does kill the virus, somehow.

Mmmm, I spoke hyperbolically to draw attention to the contrast about what I believed, and still believe, to be a wrongheaded approach to the problem. Politics didn't come into it though - I'm not British.

Roberts84 wrote:
Big development; Scientists here in Australia have re-engineered a SARS vaccine to make it effective against COVID-19. It doesn't grant immunity, but it does kill the virus, somehow.

You can already hear every other country refusing to acknowledge it because there isn't enough profit to make from working on it yet.

 ValentineGames wrote:

Roberts84 wrote:
Big development; Scientists here in Australia have re-engineered a SARS vaccine to make it effective against COVID-19. It doesn't grant immunity, but it does kill the virus, somehow.

You can already hear every other country refusing to acknowledge it because there isn't enough profit to make from working on it yet.

Is there a linked article on this?

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
I think thats a (potentially politically motivated) baseless accusation against the UK government. Theres a reason for the response being taken. just because its not the same as other countries, doesnt mean its wrong. Simple common sense would suggest that it wouldnt really be pertinent to indirectly kill off your voter base.
.

Simple math proves the wrong thoug and funny thing is even UK goverment realized that their herd immunity is going to lead to literally hundreds of thousands dead. The "just let it spread for herd immunity" approach would not keep rates lower than italy and since UK has even LESS intensive care room than italy per population it will obviously mean that unless rate is lower than italy(which it wouldn't have been) you get more, not less, patients on your lower amount of beds.

And simpe fact is for herd immunity you need 60% of population as bare minimum(preferably more) infected. Then even with very optimistic 0.5% mortality rate we get to 200k.

This is basic math and funny that is what was even given to boris & co initially but ignored...

Now at least they have woken up a bit and realized it won't work after all. But too late. But that's what you get when you ignore experts.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 ValentineGames wrote:

Roberts84 wrote:
Big development; Scientists here in Australia have re-engineered a SARS vaccine to make it effective against COVID-19. It doesn't grant immunity, but it does kill the virus, somehow.

You can already hear every other country refusing to acknowledge it because there isn't enough profit to make from working on it yet.

Profit comes from not losing billions.

tneva82 wrote:


Simple math proves the wrong thoug and funny thing is even UK goverment realized that their herd immunity is going to lead to literally hundreds of thousands dead. The "just let it spread for herd immunity" approach would not keep rates lower than italy and since UK has even LESS intensive care room than italy per population it will obviously mean that unless rate is lower than italy(which it wouldn't have been) you get more, not less, patients on your lower amount of beds.

And simpe fact is for herd immunity you need 60% of population as bare minimum(preferably more) infected. Then even with very optimistic 0.5% mortality rate we get to 200k.

This is basic math and funny that is what was even given to boris & co initially but ignored...

Now at least they have woken up a bit and realized it won't work after all. But too late. But that's what you get when you ignore experts.
.

You are misreading this. Herd immunity is the answer, because claims of containment are going to fail and no matter our strategy, it will end with herd immunity. We will develop herd immunity is more honest than we are going to stop the virus.
This pandemic doesn't have neat easy correct answers, it is going to be messy, many will die. This will happen if you make media friendly actions of actions that the media dislike.
There are too many experts with an internet connection, Boris and Co chose which ones they are going to listen to, and they made their point clearly.

Had Johnson advocated total lockdown alternate experts would be saying herd immunity is the thing, lockdown wasnt going to work and it will cost 200k casualties before the mistake is rectified, and the press would lap it up. Whichever strategy was adopted, opposed strategy scientists would get air time. That is how press works, particularly in the UK.

You cant win the media war in a scenario where there isn't a single obvious solution, all you can do is make the best of bad choices to deal with the pandemic. Nobody knows what the right strategy is, but the health experts the government are following have espoused a sound plan, its logical and it makes sense. It has convinced me. Others may be convinced by alternate approaches, or just passed around between multiple negative articles in the press.

I gave a warning on page one or two of this thread, when this was just a China issue, that if it reached the west there would be too many opinions and action would be constrained by our natural liberties. An authoritarian society has the best chance of succeeding in a lockdown, and they can best ensure compliance. You really think you are going to seal France? There will be leakage, there will be outbreaks. Sorry lockdowns don't work in western culture, we are too used to our liberties, and our people are soft and easily scared.

With so many experts in this thread with the correct answer how is this not cured yet???
OK yeah the answers are opinions and nothing more.
But these are opinions on the Internet! It's better than facts!

Roberts84 wrote:
Big development; Scientists here in Australia have re-engineered a SARS vaccine to make it effective against COVID-19. It doesn't grant immunity, but it does kill the virus, somehow.

Wow!! Are you referring to this?

https://www.newsweek.com/testing-coronavirus-cure-set-start-australia-weeks-first-participant-us-vaccine-trial-due-1492437?amp=1

That's awesome! It wasn't a headline that came up for me, but knew to search for it based on your post. Very exciting for the future!

This is a nice article

https://unherd.com/2020/03/self-isolation-is-feeding-my-warhammer-addiction/

What kind of sauce do you want for that chip on your shoulder?