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2020/10/11 22:44:38
Subject: Re:What do you think about electric cars?
Don't know if anyone has watched that series of David Attenborough (A life on our planet) on Netflix but crikey was that a painful watch.
None of it was strikingly new to me as I've always taken an interest in environmental science and the like, but seeing it portrayed in that way was certainly very powerful.
I currently drive a hybrid (self-charging) but think my next one is probably going to be an electric.
Have been thinking about investing in solar panels as well for a while, might be the time now to start thinking of that more seriously.
I like the idea of them but they are not yet practical for me. I live in a very rural area and gas stations are not off of every highway exit. Going from town to town, even for a commute, I'm not sure how well an electric vehicle would do here because of the miles being driven. The effective range would have to be increased prior to me purchasing one. I'm a 4x4 truck / suv guy and the market for electric powered vehicles in this class is still in its infancy. I am excited about the torque electric engines offer over diesel engines. However, most people that drive vehicles such as these live in rural areas where gas stations are already sparse. I don't foresee someone investing in charging stations in areas such as mine in the near future.
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Why does everyone think electric cars must replace regular ones completely or not at all? Why do so many people have an all or nothing mentality?
if EVs reduces fossil fuel cars by maybe 2/3 or eve just half, isn't that a success?
I think people may be unknowingly practicing "the nirvanna falacy", I.E. the fallacious belief that unless a solution to a problem is utterly perfect and beyond any criticism it is not worth implementing.
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Matt Swain wrote: Why does everyone think electric cars must replace regular ones completely or not at all? Why do so many people have an all or nothing mentality?
if EVs reduces fossil fuel cars by maybe 2/3 or eve just half, isn't that a success?
I think people may be unknowingly practicing "the nirvanna falacy", I.E. the fallacious belief that unless a solution to a problem is utterly perfect and beyond any criticism it is not worth implementing.
That's very true, although I think things are already travelling along that route (at least in the EU) even without electric vehicles. Legislation relating to emissions, as well as costs of petrol, have pushed people towards more economical alternatives (which are usually more ecologically friendly) too.
Look at all of the new, small-engine supercharged 3-cylinder cars coming onto the market - really good MPG, very low road tax (in the UK), still easily fast enough and fun to drive.
I was even lucky enough to have a go in a new Porsche Boxster recently - 4 cylinder version! I know purists will dislike it because it's not a 6 cylinder but it does 35mpg, tax is very low on it but if you want to you can still drive like a nob and it will pull your arms off.
Manufacturers are getting really good at creating vehicles that allow for ecological legislation, are economically viable and give potential customers what they want.
Hybrids and electric cars are an extension of that - they are only going to get cheaper, batteries are only going to get better, the inconvenience is only going to get reduced.
And the market will (I think) choose with its feet.
A company like Honda wouldn't have made it's current announcements (two thirds of vehicle sales to be hybrid/electric by 2030) if it wasn't serious about which direction things are going.
Matt Swain wrote: Why does everyone think electric cars must replace regular ones completely or not at all? Why do so many people have an all or nothing mentality?
if EVs reduces fossil fuel cars by maybe 2/3 or eve just half, isn't that a success?
I think people may be unknowingly practicing "the nirvanna falacy", I.E. the fallacious belief that unless a solution to a problem is utterly perfect and beyond any criticism it is not worth implementing.
Well at some point the oil is going to run out. Current known reserves are going to last about 50 years at current usage rates.
I don't think it could be all or nothing. Maybe in 100 years? who knows. There are some vehicles where it just isn't practical but I guess for EVs to be successful it has to be adopted by the majority of the general population, and that means auto makers need to produce more and they won't if there's not enough demand. Most of them are just dabbling in EVs. VW seems to be the first one that is investing more into EVs than the other old auto brands, so it will be interesting to see how it goes with them. I think in 5 years if the new VWs sell well we will start seeing a lot more auto makers maybe more EVs. I think it will be a very slow process. I really think for the public to want them, they need to get the charging speed like quadrupled, and crank up the range you can drive with the AC on full blast on a hot summer day to be a lot higher than it is now. Charging at home is great if you have a garage, but people living in urban areas need easy ways to charge, so that's why I think they need the charging process to be as fast as gassing up. Not everyone will be able to have a charger at home.
Speaking of VW, they have that new ID4 EV coming out soon, but the range on that is only 250 miles, where a Tesla model 3 can get over 300, and also costs I think $2000 less. I really think that's a big ball drop for VW, they should have tried to at least match Tesla especially if they are gonna cost more.
Speaking of VW, they have that new ID4 EV coming out soon, but the range on that is only 250 miles, where a Tesla model 3 can get over 300, and also costs I think $2000 less. I really think that's a big ball drop for VW, they should have tried to at least match Tesla especially if they are gonna cost more.
Unless they've drastically changed course, the latest official statements from VW was that the first model year or 2 of their new bus will be aimed squarely at the "transit van" market, and as such the 250 mile range is perfect in the "domestic commerce" area of life (what I mean is, a lot of these vans are your local plumber, electrician, delivery service, etc. and as such are locked up in a yard each night after work, and are driven from a yard to various job sites, rarely, if ever reaching their 250 mile range).
We will see, but perhaps that baby steps approach may work better for an established brand than it would for Tesla, and at the same time, will get users, and eventually personal customers, used to the altered life flow that comes with the EVs.
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Matt Swain wrote: Why does everyone think electric cars must replace regular ones completely or not at all? Why do so many people have an all or nothing mentality?
if EVs reduces fossil fuel cars by maybe 2/3 or eve just half, isn't that a success?
I think people may be unknowingly practicing "the nirvanna falacy", I.E. the fallacious belief that unless a solution to a problem is utterly perfect and beyond any criticism it is not worth implementing.
Its not a Nirvanna fallacy, its just practical limitations.
If Joe needs, or wants, a car that realistically needs to drive 300 miles between fill-ups and doesn't want/can't have the annoyance of those fill-ups taking 30+ minutes then he isn't going to get an electric vehicle, especially if the vehicle also has a very large price tag. And frankly, Joe is what most consumers are like.
Electric cars will eventually be the normal. But not till those above issues are addressed.
There are two ways to address them. 1) Change society so completely that people don't need or want a car that can do those things. 2) Make electric vehicles that fulfill those criteria.
2 is infinitely easier than 1, so thats what we should be patient for.
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These won't go into anything useful directly, but they might lead better understanding of superconductivity and to a practical RTSC someday.
Superconductor batteries could hold vast amounts of electricity, far beyond any current battery, and recharge almost at once. Also superconductor motors would be far more efficient too.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/10/15 20:53:00
"But the universe is a big place, and whatever happens, you will not be missed..."
These won't go into anything useful directly, but they might lead better understanding of superconductivity and to a practical RTSC someday.
Superconductor batteries could hold vast amounts of electricity, far beyond any current battery, and recharge almost at once. Also superconductor motors would be far more efficient too.
I'm not sure a breakthrough in that domain would help batteries all that much. The process that stores and provides energy is chemical, with ions moving through an electrolyte and reacting with the electrodes; that doesn't have much in common with a superconductor.
I wonder how an electric engine would deal with superconductive coiling. Superconductive materials have a very funky reaction to magnetic fields so it may not work as intended but I don't really know.
Still, widespread room-temperature superconductors would be a huge revolution in power production, transportation and electronics.
A superconductor power storage cell won't be a battery as we use the term today, it'll basically be a super capacitor.
A capacitor is limited by its insulator part way more than its conductor part. When you try to pump more energy into it, you eventually reach breakdown when the insulator can't hold the potential difference any more. A superconductor can't fix that.
What could maybe work is superconductive coils, storing energy as a magnetic field instead. Doing that on a large scale is far from easy though.
Speaking of VW, they have that new ID4 EV coming out soon, but the range on that is only 250 miles, where a Tesla model 3 can get over 300, and also costs I think $2000 less. I really think that's a big ball drop for VW, they should have tried to at least match Tesla especially if they are gonna cost more.
The ID4 is on the model Y segment, meaning it's $10.000 less than the equivalent Tesla.
Doesnt matter how much they list these things for. 2 things will always remain true: idiots will buy them because there's a GM badge on it, and they'll be a pile of garbage where any important (and many non-important) parts will remain backordered for incredibly stupid periods of time, thus likely burning any bridges with the customer that had remained standing.
I say this because I work in a GM dealership, and good lord is their supply chain horrendous. Seriously, I cannot stress enough that one should not EVER buy a GM product. Ever.
No lol, absolutely not. In what world do "most consumers" travel 300 miles even within a week's worth of commuting?
~60% of Americans live in cities. Remote working is swinging into full-gear. Long commutes are becoming less relevant by the day.
In 30 years, electric cars will be the norm and gas vehicles will be luxuries for people that care about roadtrips and specialist equipment for workers who's jobs require lots of mileage.
Spartan 117 wrote: I like the idea of them but they are not yet practical for me. I live in a very rural area and gas stations are not off of every highway exit. Going from town to town, even for a commute, I'm not sure how well an electric vehicle would do here because of the miles being driven.
What sort of range do you want from an EV? We're already at 300-400 miles. OK the price is still steep for those cars, but give it a few years and that'll change.
No lol, absolutely not. In what world do "most consumers" travel 300 miles even within a week's worth of commuting?
~60% of Americans live in cities. Remote working is swinging into full-gear. Long commutes are becoming less relevant by the day.
In 30 years, electric cars will be the norm and gas vehicles will be luxuries for people that care about roadtrips and specialist equipment for workers who's jobs require lots of mileage.
Absolutely. I understand there are differences between the UK and US, but I've asked my friends this same question when they ask about how practical our EV is and when they analyse their driving habits the number of trips above 50 miles they do in a year are actually quite small - usually fewer than one a week.
Some people would find EV range too limiting for them but IME, it's not the range itself that's the limiting factor, but access to charging infrastructure. The vast majority of people don't travel far enough to require a recharge every time they make a journey but it is true to say a lot of people would struggle to get convenient, regular access to charging facilities. I think if we solve that problem EVs become much more attractive to a much larger range of people.
If Joe needs, or wants, a car that realistically needs to drive 300 miles between fill-ups and doesn't want/can't have the annoyance of those fill-ups taking 30+ minutes then he isn't going to get an electric vehicle, especially if the vehicle also has a very large price tag. And frankly, Joe is what most consumers are like.
I certainly agree that what's preventing the uptake is what Joe *thinks* he needs. The real challenge for EV adoption is the understanding/mindset change that shows that EV's are suitable for most people with the most minimal routine changes (plugging in at work rather than going to a gas station).
As said, a 100 mile range covers most people most of the time with plenty to spare, so needing 600 miles and a 2-minute fast charge would be nice but is wildly unnecessary. Realistically, an EV is more convenient than gas for most people as they can charge it whilst doing something else and never need to visit a special gas station (which will turn into something more like a Starbucks with some chargers outside).
Realistically, I do 1 or 2 trips of over 100 miles in a leg, every year (usually our summer holiday). I'm sure I could rent a gas hybrid for that week or two and use something like a current gen Leaf for the rest of the time.
The only reason I don't have one yet is towing and cost - the only EV's which can tow are way out of my budget for now, and I can't justify running 2 vehicles.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/10/21 09:09:45
I am not Joe, and nor are any of the people buying the car I bought.
I'm happy with my <150 mile range, and a >40 minute fill-up. 40 minutes is a sandwich-and-loo break at the motorway services.
For work, as a field engineer, I drive to the main office to collect kit, or work from my desk for a while. I will visit sites around the county, all within the range on my car. If I need to do more miles, I'll drive to work, get a hybrid pool car, and use that for the longer trips. I have very few charging options, so plan ahead.
We still have a petrol car, but that has been used less than a dozen times during Lockdown. We used it to have a couple of holiday day-trips, but seeing family outside the county still fit into the limited range of the EV (with fast chargers on the route if needed).
The stated range around town is more than 200 miles. Who drives 200 miles in one urban trip...?
Joe needs to realise that personal convenience is not a luxury we can afford for much longer, until a technical solution appears letting us go back to the old (now) ways.
This message was edited 8 times. Last update was at 2020/10/21 14:47:53
No lol, absolutely not. In what world do "most consumers" travel 300 miles even within a week's worth of commuting?
~60% of Americans live in cities. Remote working is swinging into full-gear. Long commutes are becoming less relevant by the day.
In 30 years, electric cars will be the norm and gas vehicles will be luxuries for people that care about roadtrips and specialist equipment for workers who's jobs require lots of mileage.
Up until the pandemic I was driving 500 miles + a week commuting, and know of someone that does over 1500(!). Although those were 50 miles to work and back so a electric vehicle would have been fine, just park up every evening and plug in. Have to say I am quite glad not to behaving to do that though..
Think you are probably right in terms of smaller vehicles and family cars. The last things to be replaced will be diesel-powered vans and vehicles which need non-stop use during the day (delivery vehicles and the like - ironic as those are starting to make up a pretty large % of the traffic that you see on the roads, especially in more remote areas). I would be very surprised if there aren't any stinky old white transit vans on the road in 2050..
Honestly it shocks me that as a nation we went from having Royal Mail deliveries twice a day as normal and doing all your post - to where we've multiple companies that just roam the countryside in white vans delivering at random.
Granted during the Royal Mail days deliveries could be up to 14 days from point of order whereas now Amazon can turn things around in a day or two and if gets to a week out people start complaining about their orders.
When it comes to the range, I don't think there are many people needing to go 300+ mile trips in one day all the time, it's more a perception and comparison kind of thing. On paper, I think if a lot of people see an EV range that's lower than they can currently go on a full tank of gas, they'll think the EV isn't as good. They don't have the charge at home mindset yet. They're maybe also used to driving to work all week and only needing to fill up the tank once. It will take time for stubborn people to figure out it's better. And prices usually $10k higher than something similar in a gas car is another thing that's gonna hold a lot of people back, even if they make that money back in gas savings, a lot of people won't look at it that way when they're shopping around for a new car.
That's kinda why I think the new VW ID4 SUV is gonna miss the mark. They're making tons of them and want to market them to the masses, it's a lot more expensive than a Tiguan or Atlas, it has less range than the gas tanks on those 2 SUVs, and if you're comparing only EVs the Tesla Model 3 and even Model Y seems like a better deal for what you get. VW should have either had a better range, or lower price, or both. I think it's great that they're making tons of them and want to market them to the average joes, but kinda worry it's gonna be a hard sell for a lot of people and it would suck if they just sat around collecting dust on dealer lots while the salesmen ignore them because the gas cars are easier to sell. That said I'm still excided to see what the ID Buzz van will be like when it's done, it's still #1 on my list based on looks alone. But I won't be able to afford it if it costs much more than the ID4.
We've had electric vans for a few years now, albeit with only 100 mile range.
With the exception of long distance couriers, most commerical vehicles don't actually do much mileage. Even delivery vans are often only doing the last 10 miles or so from a depot, and whilst the EV range isn't great yet the fuel savings are huge.
EV's are apparently getting pretty popular for London taxis now because they don't actually do huge range and can generally recharge pretty quickly.
The bulk of vans are probably from tradesfolk who are driving to a few sites a day and parking up.
Ford has got a range-extender transit available here with an electric motor that can be charged from a 1.0 petrol engine if the batter range isn't enough. But where it suffers there is the payload is just under 1000kg which means it won't take a 'ton bag' or pallet of building supplies. It'd still be ideal for mail deliveries though.
Herzlos wrote:We've had electric vans for a few years now, albeit with only 100 mile range.
With the exception of long distance couriers, most commerical vehicles don't actually do much mileage. Even delivery vans are often only doing the last 10 miles or so from a depot, and whilst the EV range isn't great yet the fuel savings are huge.
EV's are apparently getting pretty popular for London taxis now because they don't actually do huge range and can generally recharge pretty quickly.
The bulk of vans are probably from tradesfolk who are driving to a few sites a day and parking up.
Ford has got a range-extender transit available here with an electric motor that can be charged from a 1.0 petrol engine if the batter range isn't enough. But where it suffers there is the payload is just under 1000kg which means it won't take a 'ton bag' or pallet of building supplies. It'd still be ideal for mail deliveries though.
That's really interesting to know Herzlos - goes to show if you don't pay attention to current developments (which I haven't for the last year or two) you can completely miss what is going on, things are changing quickly!
I did see the launch for the new Tesla truck, which looked absolutely mental.
So here's my issue with electric cars that probably was already addressed. Do they know what type of power plant the electricity for that car came from? If it comes from a fossil fuel plant that is highly pointless or less than pointless. Most good power plants are like fossil fuels, nuclear or hydro-electric dams. I'm very much pro-nuclear and my old physics teacher was as well. If you want to go electric that's fine if it works well enough for you but do your research to see if it's even got a point to you using it in your area. I also used to hear about electric cars not being able to run as long as gas or be able to handle as much. This could be a problem if you need to do heavy duty driving.
flamingkillamajig wrote: So here's my issue with electric cars that probably was already addressed. Do they know what type of power plant the electricity for that car came from? If it comes from a fossil fuel plant that is highly pointless or less than pointless. Most good power plants are like fossil fuels, nuclear or hydro-electric dams. I'm very much pro-nuclear and my old physics teacher was as well. If you want to go electric that's fine if it works well enough for you but do your research to see if it's even got a point to you using it in your area. I also used to hear about electric cars not being able to run as long as gas or be able to handle as much. This could be a problem if you need to do heavy duty driving.
This is more and more of a moot point the longer time goes on.
Renewables are rapidly overtaking fossil fuels in most developed and developing nations as a source of energy (exception of India and Australia far as I know). The coal industry is all but dead at this point. The only reason it's profitable at all is billions in government subsidies. OPEC already sees the writing on the wall for oil and that's why prices are so low right now. Fossil fuel is all but dead. We're just waiting for the corpse to be buried.
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