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abyrn wrote:

the_scotsman wrote:

 Smirrors wrote:
Bringing this tactica back from the dead!

Rather than people spam individual posts, Im hoping to see everyone contribute to this post for ideas and experiences using the new Index Imperialis: Assassins (can we get a thread title change?)

Today I am going to test out a triple Vindicare and Eversor detachment for 340pts for fun.

On paper the Vindicare appears to require 2 or 3 to be effective in removing characters. Has anyone had practical experiences with this?

Triple Eversor would be decent too. I feel like triple Culexus would only be situational other than being an annoyance for some armies. There is really no need for multiple Callidus.

The bonus for having 1 of each assassin also feels like a trap. Its a lot of points firstly, highly situational, and not optimal load out with a single vindicare.

Anything else I missed?

No offense, but I was highly confused reading the first few pages of this thread. Howsabout you just go ahead and create a new one, one that doesn't have people discussing the index rules and suggesting things that have been FAQ'ed out of the game at this point like turn 1 deep strike and mixed imperial lists?

I've tried the three assassins 0CP vanguard detachment with a callidus, eversor and vindicare. Only the eversor accomplished anything, and he took until turn 4 to make his points back, plus I had to pump 3CP into him to get him to do it - not an efficient performance, but better than the other two. Callidus succeeded her charge but flubbed the combat, and the vindicare failed to connect 3/4 turns he was alive, since he's got a 45% chance of failing to wound vs power armor.

unsurprisingly, the chicken little hype for the assassins seems to have been somewhat overblown. I think they'll be used as an 85pt sideboard in compeitive games and might see some action.

How is the Vindicare failing to wound vs power armor? He hits on 3's, 2's if he does not move, and always wounds infantry on a 2, or do you mean he has a 45% chance of killing a power armored character in one turn? I think the Vindicare needs sniper support, either by taking a second Vindicare or any other snipers. He seems to be about 1 or 2 wounds short on average on killing characters.

2 Vindicares seems to be the sweet spot. Use the stratagem to have 1 take 2 shots at 2 different characters, then have the second finish off the more injured one. Pop the strat to gain CP for killing a character and the whole thing is a wash.

EDIT: I also edited first post to hopefully dispel some confusion.

Audustum wrote:

2 Vindicares seems to be the sweet spot. Use the stratagem to have 1 take 2 shots at 2 different characters, then have the second finish off the more injured one. Pop the strat to gain CP for killing a character and the whole thing is a wash.

Although, you'd need to keep in mind that you might also be spending 2CPs at the beginning of the game to get those 2 Vindies in the first place. So you would never be able to get a "profit" other than killing those characters.

-

 Galef wrote:

Audustum wrote:

2 Vindicares seems to be the sweet spot. Use the stratagem to have 1 take 2 shots at 2 different characters, then have the second finish off the more injured one. Pop the strat to gain CP for killing a character and the whole thing is a wash.

Although, you'd need to keep in mind that you might also be spending 2CPs at the beginning of the game to get those 2 Vindies in the first place. So you would never be able to get a "profit" other than killing those characters.

-

You can't use the "buy an assassin" stratagem twice. It's explicitly one time only. And taking two aux detachments is madness. You either want 1 via stratagem or an execution force of 4.

you could take a vanguard force of 3x assassins: 2x Vindicare, 1x other for no CP cost...
Might work, not tried it yet.

 The Forgemaster wrote:
you could take a vanguard force of 3x assassins: 2x Vindicare, 1x other for no CP cost...
Might work, not tried it yet.

Yeah, and I think there's room for that depending on your army still. You may not always want to spend 85 points for 1 CP (effectively).


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 BaconCatBug wrote:

 Galef wrote:

Audustum wrote:

2 Vindicares seems to be the sweet spot. Use the stratagem to have 1 take 2 shots at 2 different characters, then have the second finish off the more injured one. Pop the strat to gain CP for killing a character and the whole thing is a wash.

Although, you'd need to keep in mind that you might also be spending 2CPs at the beginning of the game to get those 2 Vindies in the first place. So you would never be able to get a "profit" other than killing those characters.

-

You can't use the "buy an assassin" stratagem twice. It's explicitly one time only. And taking two aux detachments is madness. You either want 1 via stratagem or an execution force of 4.

Basically this or the 0 CP Vanguard.

You can also take some other snipers that are not Vindicares to soften up the target. I'm trying out a list this weekend with a Space Marine sniper squad and a Vindicare - my theory is that the Vindicare should be able to take down a target after the Scouts put 1 or 2 wounds on it.

abyrn wrote:
You can also take some other snipers that are not Vindicares to soften up the target. I'm trying out a list this weekend with a Space Marine sniper squad and a Vindicare - my theory is that the Vindicare should be able to take down a target after the Scouts put 1 or 2 wounds on it.

Yup, I had some luck with a couple of squads of Skitarii + 2x Arquebus and the Vindicare finishing the characters off to gain those CP. only 2x 65pts + 85 for the vindicare.

 BaconCatBug wrote:

 Galef wrote:

Audustum wrote:

2 Vindicares seems to be the sweet spot. Use the stratagem to have 1 take 2 shots at 2 different characters, then have the second finish off the more injured one. Pop the strat to gain CP for killing a character and the whole thing is a wash.

Although, you'd need to keep in mind that you might also be spending 2CPs at the beginning of the game to get those 2 Vindies in the first place. So you would never be able to get a "profit" other than killing those characters.

-

You can't use the "buy an assassin" stratagem twice. It's explicitly one time only. And taking two aux detachments is madness. You either want 1 via stratagem or an execution force of 4.

Why would you go for the execution force of 4 though, when you could take 3 in a vanguard and just give up 1cp? seems like the benefit for not having to field 1 of each and instead getting to go 2 vindys 1 culexus or 2 vindys 1 eversor would be way higher.

He's saying 58% to kill, so 42% chance of not killing.

 Smirrors wrote:
He's saying 58% to kill, so 42% chance of not killing.

No, I'm saying 58% chance to *cause any damage*. Not 58% chance to *kill*. A vindicare assassin has about a 20% overall chance of KILLING an average power armored character.

yeah but it only needs to kill one and assuming you fire it on two turns vs two targets.

U02dah4 wrote:
yeah but it only needs to kill one and assuming you fire it on two turns vs two targets.

Sure. And you only need to roll high with a rapier laser destroyer one time and it will one-shot a tank and instantly give its points back. it's still considered an incredibly bad piece overall.

It's not LIKELY to do that, nor is the assassin LIKELY to snipe a character.

If he takes 3 turns to kill a character, it doesn't matter that he's made his points back. he's exerted next to no pressure on the game and I would consider his inclusion to be mostly a failure.

For vindicares to be really worthwhile you need to pair them with other sniper units (others suggested skitarii and I think that's a good idea, or obviously you could just bring 2-3 vindicares)

Blindly slapping the vindicare into your list is only going to be impressive if you experience a lot of confirmation bias and remember those few times he does make a huge impact turn 1.

False equivalence

The vindicare is a character it is also reasonably likely to hit and the compounded effect of two shots

So 48% 1-3w + headshot 13.9% x(1W) + (32% of shots 1MW + 16% + 2MW 5.3% 3M)

So 30% of the time we will kill a 4w t3/4 3++ character

This is higher the second time a character has been Wounded as you now don't need the bonuses.

On 2 different targets so we have 60% chance of a T1 kill followed by the same or better t2.

The rapier is not a character so can be shot and so needs to make its points back or it wont be there T2.

Bs4+ St 12 ap-4 so assuming knight 1/6 of the time it will do (3.5W * 0.33% or 7w * 50% or 11.5* 0.16%).

The assassin is reasonably likely to snipe a character if it fires at 2 30% on A 30% on B.

The rapier fails to damage 5/6 of the time and even when it does is doing 3.5w 3rd of time.

Your math here is ridiculously disingenuous.

You gave the vindicare a situation where all its stats were being used and put the rapier on a target with a 5++ invuln. You also chose to use the lower BS version of the rapier instead of the one you'd ever use (marine one with 3+bs)

You also spent a CP on the vindicare to make it look better but did not spend a CP on the rapier to improve one of its many single dice rolls.

And rather than sticking to my example of a typical 5w 3+sv marine character you invented a theoretical 4w 3++ character that a) AFAIK pretty much exists nowhere and b) gives the vindicare far better odds of a single turn kill.

Yet instead of a normal vehicle which would get no save you put the rapier against a Knight.

My only point here is that the vindicare is not a magic miracle machine that will 100% always give you value. If he takes until turn 2-3 to kill anything and costs cp and doesn't score at all, he's not a useful piece. Pair him with other supporting snipers or take multiples so you can actually apply pressure with him.

U02dah4 wrote:

So 30% of the time we will kill a 4w t3/4 3++ character

On 2 different targets so we have 60% chance of a T1 kill followed by the same or better t2.

That's not how probability works. You don't add the chances of two things happening independently together.

An example is tossing a coin. you have a 50% change of getting heads. Toss two coins and you don't have a 100% chance of getting at least one heads you only have a 75% chance. To get the correct answer you multiply the failure rates and subtract from 1. so if 30% is the success rate you multiple 0.7 by 0.7 and get 0.49, so the success rate is 0.51 or 51%.

On 2 different targets you have 51% chance of at least one T1 kill.

Coin A 25% TT 50% TH 25% HH 75% chance of at least 1H

However expectancy is still 1H because for every HH their is a TT

Expectancy is the best measure of AVG performance as it takes into account that time you kill 2. Yes in a distribution sometimes you may perform better sometimes you may perform worse.

But the expectancy will be 60% of a killed model

9% two dead characters 42% 1 dead character 49% no dead characters

Or if they were wounded previously

23% two dead characters 50% 1 dead character 27% no dead characters

So yes you have a 51% chance of atleast 1 kill but a 9% chance of two. So in the long run you will get 60% of a character killed per round thats the expectancy.

Umm, you typed it out there yourself above: 42% chance of 1 dead, 9% chance of two. 42+9=51% chance of at least one dead.

I think the stratagem to fire twice makes Vindicares probably the best option against the kind of Eldar armies that bring mutliple warlocks. Chances of dropping one of those are really quite good, and if you get one it pays back the CP cost of firing twice.

The Callidus is still cool of course, but can struggle to actually get to enemy psykers if they're hiding at the back. Both the Eversor and Vindicare could potentially be better in that match up.

bort wrote:
Umm, you typed it out there yourself above: 42% chance of 1 dead, 9% chance of two. 42+9=51% chance of at least one dead.

42 +(9x2) = expectancy 60% which is a more accurate measure of effectiveness

U02dah4 wrote:
Coin A 25% TT 50% TH 25% HH 75% chance of at least 1H

However expectancy is still 1H because for every HH their is a TT

Expectancy is the best measure of AVG performance as it takes into account that time you kill 2. Yes in a distribution sometimes you may perform better sometimes you may perform worse.

But the expectancy will be 60% of a killed model

9% two dead characters 42% 1 dead character 49% no dead characters

Or if they were wounded previously

23% two dead characters 50% 1 dead character 27% no dead characters

So yes you have a 51% chance of at least 1 kill but a 9% chance of two. So in the long run you will get 60% of a character killed per round that's the expectancy.

What?? No, that's not how it works. You said it yourself, with two shots at two different characters you're chance of killing no characters is 49%, so how is it 60% to kill a character per round? That's 109% with all possible outcomes. That right there should tell you you're wrong.

The 51% chance of at least one kill includes the chance of killing 2. That's why its describes as "at least one". You don't add 9% on to it again for the chance of killing 2, its already been included in the 51%.

Oh, I get what you're going for. That's not 60% chance of killing a target, that's an EV of 60% of a character's worth of wounds.

If you think of it like a unit doing 2 shots each dealing .3W, most would say the unit has an expected value of .6W. Which works. But, it's not the same as saying that unit has a 60% chance of killing a 1W target.

ItsPug wrote:

U02dah4 wrote:
Coin A 25% TT 50% TH 25% HH 75% chance of at least 1H

However expectancy is still 1H because for every HH their is a TT

Expectancy is the best measure of AVG performance as it takes into account that time you kill 2. Yes in a distribution sometimes you may perform better sometimes you may perform worse.

But the expectancy will be 60% of a killed model

9% two dead characters 42% 1 dead character 49% no dead characters

Or if they were wounded previously

23% two dead characters 50% 1 dead character 27% no dead characters

So yes you have a 51% chance of at least 1 kill but a 9% chance of two. So in the long run you will get 60% of a character killed per round that's the expectancy.

What?? No, that's not how it works. You said it yourself, with two shots at two different characters you're chance of killing no characters is 49%, so how is it 60% to kill a character per round? That's 109% with all possible outcomes. That right there should tell you you're wrong.

The 51% chance of at least one kill includes the chance of killing 2. That's why its describes as "at least one". You don't add 9% on to it again for the chance of killing 2, its already been included in the 51%.

because sometimes you will kill 2 so when averageing the expected kill rate will be higher than the 51%.
Expectancy = chance of outcome X number of kills = Average output (which will be higher than the at least 1)
9%X2+ 51%x1 + 49X0 =60%

so no its not 109% in this example but yes that can occur that would mean you would on avg kill more than 1 character

put it this way if i fire 10 boltgun shots into an infantry squad
the expectancy is 296% in other words you will kill 2.96 guardsmen on avg a useful measure of how my tac squad performs
the measure of killing at least 1 guardsman will be 97% which while true is not a fair indication of its effectiveness

You can see how the two measures perform when i double the shots so I fire 20 boltgun shots into an infantry squad
the expectancy is 593% you will kill 5.93 guardsmen on avg this quite accurately shows the impact of the increased firepower
the measure of killing at least 1 guardsmen will be 99.98% so yes we can conclude that doubleing the firepower increases the odds of killing at least 1 guardsmen by under 3%. Has it effectively measured the impact of doubleing the shots?

When a unit has the possabilty of killing more than one model you need to take that into account when measureing effectiveness.


the expectancy is 60% vindicare will kill 0.6 Characters (T3/4 4W 3+) on Avg thats the useful measure of its performance

U02dah4 wrote:

because sometimes you will kill 2 so when averaging the expected kill rate will be higher than the 51%.
Expectancy = chance of outcome X number of kills = Average output (which will be higher than the at least 1)
9%X2+ 51%x1 + 49X0 =60%

so no its not 109% in this example but yes that can occur that would mean you would on avg kill more than 1 character

put it this way if i fire 10 boltgun shots into an infantry squad
the expectancy is 296% in other words you will kill 2.96 guardsmen on avg a useful measure of how my tac squad performs
the measure of killing at least 1 guardsman will be 97% which while true is not a fair indication of its effectiveness

You can see how the two measures perform when i double the shots so I fire 20 boltgun shots into an infantry squad
the expectancy is 593% you will kill 5.93 guardsmen on avg this quite accurately shows the impact of the increased firepower
the measure of killing at least 1 guardsmen will be 99.98% so yes we can conclude that doubleing the firepower increases the odds of killing at least 1 guardsmen by under 3%. Has it effectively measured the impact of doubleing the shots?

When a unit has the possabilty of killing more than one model you need to take that into account when measureing effectiveness.

the expectancy is 60% vindicare will kill 0.6 Characters (T3/4 4W 3+) on Avg thats the useful measure of its performance

Percent (%) means per 100. You fire 100 bolter shots at a unit and kill 29.6, that's 29.6% not 2960% as your example above suggests. Doubling the number of shots doubles the expected outcome, not the chance of the event happening.

U02dah4 wrote:

So 30% of the time we will kill a 4w t3/4 3++ character

That's your quote discussing the chance of something happening, not the expected wounds inflicted, but the chance that the vindicare would kill its target.

If I have a unit that automatically does 4 wounds to a dreadnought, no more and no less, and I shoot it at a dreadnought, I can expect to inflict damage representing 50% of the dreadnought's starting wounds. but I have no chance of killing it with that unit alone in one turn. Hence, the expected outcome is 50% damage (or 4 wounds) but the chance of kill is 0%

Expectancy (or expected outcome) is the average result, rolling 2d6 the expected outcome is 7, The chance of rolling 7 is 16.66%. They are two different things.

Oh and incidentally, the chance of getting the expected outcome (7) is the same as getting a 4 or less, or a 10+

well no, your chance of getting a 4 is 1/12 whereas your chance of getting a 7 is 1/6.


But your right about the rest.



You were probably adding the chance of getting a 4 or a 10 now that I reread it.

 Eihnlazer wrote:
well no, your chance of getting a 4 is 1/12 whereas your chance of getting a 7 is 1/6.

But your right about the rest.

You were probably adding the chance of getting a 4 or a 10 now that I reread it.

No there is a 6/36 or 1/6 chance of getting a 4 or less (1/36 for a 2, 2/36 for a 3 and a 3/36 for a 4, total 6/36). The same goes for a 10+ (3/36 for 10, 2/36 for 11 and 1/36 for a 12)

Yes by taking the 29.6% successful results you calculated and multiplying by the number of shots

29.6%x 20 we come to 592 (should be 593 but you rounded) so are we to assume thats 592 dead guardsmen no because the 29.6 was a % we have 592% or 5.92 dead guardsmen the Avg or expectancy

The chance of it happening is only part of the working in evaluateing a unit what matters is the expected outcome

Expectancy is the Average outcome

You can look at the expectancy
in terms of:
successfull to hits
Sucessfull to wounds
Failed saves
Damage
Killed models (of different types)

Its about selecting the appropiate measure to inform you of how effective the unit is. in the case of an anti vehicle weapon I want exp of damage because few guns will kill a target so its not a reasonable measure of effectiveness to look at expectancy of kills but damage output is. Especially as i will combine firepower

The likelihood of killed characters is a better measure of a vindicare because my target wont receive extra firepower so it is binary either dead or not.

I pick this profile 4w t3/4 3++ character as it is what i will fire it at. Deviate from this profile and that 30% may become higher or lower. The 30% is based on the expected out come of all combinations of the three damage types includeing failing to hit wound etc....

Yes distribution means that sometimes a gun will outperform expectancy and sometimes underperform its the mean result.
However in the long run you will do better one time for everytime you do worse. In the case of killed models this make the maths mildly more complex because theres a cap overkills dont matter.

If i wanted to compare the neutron laser and 2 lascannons whats easier writting a full distribution of all possible outcomes by probabilities or calculateing the average.

If we look at just the damage roll a lascannon on avg does 3.5 damage when its opponent doesn't save the odds of rolling exactly 3.5 on a dice are 0% so i dont rate my chances of rolling the average in a game as its not possible and so the probabilty of me getting the avg result is not a usefull measure - i wont but the avg indicates what i would get in the long run.

I could write the probabilities of each outcome

1(1/6)+2(1/6)+3(1/6)+4(1/6)+5(1/6)+6(1/6) damage
Where as the neutron laser
3(3/6)+4(1/6)+5(1/6)+6(1/6) damage

Or just exp damage role =3.5 for lascannon vs 4 for a neutron laser shot which is easier to compare?

If you go back to the calculation of the 30% its a simple way of writting how often that target will die but there are two shots on independent targets so we have 30% A dies 30% B dies 60%exp death of a model however on any given turn i may kill 1, 2 or 0 as the shots are independent of each other. In a game if i kills 2 it matters it may not look likely but play 6 games in a tournament those 9% stack up eapecially if its firing in more than one turn.

You can talk about the Vindicare's expected damage all day, but in the end he's a great choice if you don't SPECIFICALLY need one of the other Assassins, and you don't want to give him an easy character to kill, the Vindicare is extremely hard to kill, and can contribute to the match the entire game. If he's always shooting at elite units, he's likely to make his points back, and if he gets lucky and pops a character or two, then you get back some CP as well. Not a bad choice.

If you're playing ITC and your opponent picks Headhunter, maybe think twice before throwing a free secondary point at him in the form of a Callidus or Eversor. The Vindicare is better for playing defensively IMO.

 Horst wrote:
You can talk about the Vindicare's expected damage all day, but in the end he's a great choice if you don't SPECIFICALLY need one of the other Assassins, and you don't want to give him an easy character to kill, the Vindicare is extremely hard to kill, and can contribute to the match the entire game. If he's always shooting at elite units, he's likely to make his points back, and if he gets lucky and pops a character or two, then you get back some CP as well. Not a bad choice.

If you're playing ITC and your opponent picks Headhunter, maybe think twice before throwing a free secondary point at him in the form of a Callidus or Eversor. The Vindicare is better for playing defensively IMO.

I agree, in a recent game I found the Vindicare really useful for picking off random Custodes troops. He also managed to kill the -1 to hit banner guy with a single shot, but I think that was the only character he killed in the game.

The whole EV = expected models killed breaks down with multiwound guns, multiwound targets, and multiple targets. As a simple example, picture firing a 10 damage gun at a guardsman. The damage EV is > 1, but you will only kill 1 at most.

There are a number of possible results from the Vindicator's 2 shots in this scenario that do not result in killing a model, some that result in overkill. You can calculate that he will deal 60% of 4W, or 2.4W total on average, but it'll be split somehow across 2 targets, and only a percent of those breakdowns results in 1+ kills.

I’m wondering which is the best assassin to take against Ynnari. The obvious choice would probably be Culexus as they heavily rely on psychic powers, but I’m not sure that’s actually the case now. He seems the least killy of the assassins. This guy is probably the go to vs hemlocks, as they’ll be coming to you, but he doesn’t do a lot to prevent yvraine and a farseer piling buffs onto reapers in the backfield.

Warlocks walk around with 2 wounds and a 4++. They are begging to be shot by a vindicare, he has a 62% chance of killing one, not counting the better chance if he gets a 6 to wound. And he might well eventually get rid of yvraine or a farseer. On the other hand he’s pretty vulnerable to shining spears if not deployed correctly.

Meanwhile the eversor could tear apart a Ynnari back field. He could pretty easily go through a unit of reapers and could also have a good go at killing yvraine. Ynnari don’t tend to have much in the way of bubble wrap so you’d often be able to chop up valuable things.

And even the Callidus could make sense. You again have a decent chance of killing most T3 characters, especially if they aren’t wrapped well. Ynnari rely on a lot of stratagems do reign of confusion could really hurt them.

What do people reckon?