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 Wyrmalla wrote:
Meh, the Americans pulled a "Canadian Girlfriend" with the weapons in Iraq, doubt that they could get away with it again.

I think you might have misread.

Y'know, like a British intelligence analyst.

 Seaward wrote:

 Wyrmalla wrote:
Meh, the Americans pulled a "Canadian Girlfriend" with the weapons in Iraq, doubt that they could get away with it again.

I think you might have misread.

Y'know, like a British intelligence analyst.

It's funny how it's always America's fault on that one...

 Wyrmalla wrote:
Meh, the Americans pulled a "Canadian Girlfriend" with the weapons in Iraq, doubt that they could get away with it again.

Yeah, because North Korea publiclly threatening to use nuclear weapons on the US and South Korea is the same

 Dreadclaw69 wrote:

 Wyrmalla wrote:
Meh, the Americans pulled a "Canadian Girlfriend" with the weapons in Iraq, doubt that they could get away with it again.

Yeah, because North Korea publiclly threatening to use nuclear weapons on the US and South Korea is the same

Or the fact that they've already set off a couple.

 Frazzled wrote:
Whats the endgame? What happens if they continue to throw their tantrum, and everyone - other than having defenses at a higher state of readiness - just carries on?

One argument is that this is blackmail for food and other goodies (kind of a crappy version of Attila the Hun). What if we just ignore them, like an adult with a child?

What are they going to do then?

In most tantrums either the baby runs out of steam (this is what occured with GC) or they get violent. Depending on the parent the parent could wuss, drop the hammer, or smack em.

This is it absolutely.

SK knows that eventually the tantrum will end, as it always has done. They are just seeing how big a pack or ramyen they can get stuffed into their mouth to shut them up.

Nicely put, Pacific.

If wonder if the DPRK's next step would be a very public weapons test (assuming they have a nuke to spare)?

 Pacific wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:
Whats the endgame? What happens if they continue to throw their tantrum, and everyone - other than having defenses at a higher state of readiness - just carries on?

One argument is that this is blackmail for food and other goodies (kind of a crappy version of Attila the Hun). What if we just ignore them, like an adult with a child?

What are they going to do then?

In most tantrums either the baby runs out of steam (this is what occured with GC) or they get violent. Depending on the parent the parent could wuss, drop the hammer, or smack em.

This is it absolutely.

SK knows that eventually the tantrum will end, as it always has done. They are just seeing how big a pack or ramyen they can get stuffed into their mouth to shut them up.

Why give them any ramen? You just keep the cycle going.
Unless you put some sort of laxative in the ramen...

Relapse wrote:
Or the fact that they've already set off a couple.

Pretty much

I think that maybe this time we let the tantrum cry itself out. No food aid, no capitulations. For years we used the Sunshine Policy and that didn't work it just emboldened, so now they think that threats of force will instead. They've cut off one of the few factories that earns them foreign currency, let them bluster, put their allies in untenable positions until their support wanes and let them spin their wheels until they have nothing left.

And if they lash out we let them know that it was a Very Bad Idea (TM)

 Dreadclaw69 wrote:

Relapse wrote:
Or the fact that they've already set off a couple.

Pretty much

I think that maybe this time we let the tantrum cry itself out. No food aid, no capitulations. For years we used the Sunshine Policy and that didn't work it just emboldened, so now they think that threats of force will instead. They've cut off one of the few factories that earns them foreign currency, let them bluster, put their allies in untenable positions until their support wanes and let them spin their wheels until they have nothing left.

And if they lash out we let them know that it was a Very Bad Idea (TM)

That boy over there is really painting himself into a corner and is maybe getting ready to do some chest thumping after our exericises with South Korea are over by saying he chased us from the penninsula.
I just hope China is getting pissed at him and not us.

 Frazzled wrote:

 Pacific wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:
Whats the endgame? What happens if they continue to throw their tantrum, and everyone - other than having defenses at a higher state of readiness - just carries on?

One argument is that this is blackmail for food and other goodies (kind of a crappy version of Attila the Hun). What if we just ignore them, like an adult with a child?

What are they going to do then?

In most tantrums either the baby runs out of steam (this is what occured with GC) or they get violent. Depending on the parent the parent could wuss, drop the hammer, or smack em.

This is it absolutely.

SK knows that eventually the tantrum will end, as it always has done. They are just seeing how big a pack or ramyen they can get stuffed into their mouth to shut them up.

Why give them any ramen? You just keep the cycle going.
Unless you put some sort of laxative in the ramen...

+1
I wish we'd stop all this aid crap to them as the only thing it really does is encourage & enable NK to continue acting like giant donkeycaves.

And if they do try and launch an attack?
Well, while our own military has learned to keep museum-quality gear in top running order, I highly doubt the NK's have...

Relapse wrote:
That boy over there is really painting himself into a corner and is maybe getting ready to do some chest thumping after our exericises with South Korea are over by saying he chased us from the penninsula.
I just hope China is getting pissed at him and not us.

Yeah, he's painting himself into a corner with finger paints
I'm pretty sure China doesn't want North Korea doing anything silly, it could end up with China dealing with refugees from the conflict and a US sympathetic country on its border. That being said China is being surprisingly silent on this, and as one of North Korea's longest standing allies the international community's silence towards China is deafening. Had this been a US ally threatening a nuclear strike I'm sure China, Russia and others would be clamoring for the US to rein in their ally.

This situation is getting really unpredictable, especially with Russia now running practice attacks on the missle defense systems in that area.

 Dreadclaw69 wrote:

Relapse wrote:
That boy over there is really painting himself into a corner and is maybe getting ready to do some chest thumping after our exericises with South Korea are over by saying he chased us from the penninsula.
I just hope China is getting pissed at him and not us.

Yeah, he's painting himself into a corner with finger paints
I'm pretty sure China doesn't want North Korea doing anything silly, it could end up with China dealing with refugees from the conflict and a US sympathetic country on its border. That being said China is being surprisingly silent on this, and as one of North Korea's longest standing allies the international community's silence towards China is deafening. Had this been a US ally threatening a nuclear strike I'm sure China, Russia and others would be clamoring for the US to rein in their ally.

I have a feeling that China let their barking dog off it's leash at first to distract the rest of the developed world from the spying scandals they've recently been caught red-handed in.
Then of corse, they lose total control of their yappy little pooch and now have to distance themselves as much as possible... The quieter they stay on the NK issue, the more likely it is that the US/SK and everyone else ignore their initial potential involvement.

And I doubt NK will be 'allowed' to launch a nuke... It's not like China or Russia would even entertain the idea of having potential fallout so near their own borders, let alone being remarked/remembered as "the crazy dude who tried to begin a nuclear armageddon's BFF."

 Frazzled wrote:

 Pacific wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:
Whats the endgame? What happens if they continue to throw their tantrum, and everyone - other than having defenses at a higher state of readiness - just carries on?

One argument is that this is blackmail for food and other goodies (kind of a crappy version of Attila the Hun). What if we just ignore them, like an adult with a child?

What are they going to do then?

In most tantrums either the baby runs out of steam (this is what occured with GC) or they get violent. Depending on the parent the parent could wuss, drop the hammer, or smack em.

This is it absolutely.

SK knows that eventually the tantrum will end, as it always has done. They are just seeing how big a pack or ramyen they can get stuffed into their mouth to shut them up.

Why give them any ramen? You just keep the cycle going.
Unless you put some sort of laxative in the ramen...

I think because the South still shares a feeling of kinship with the North. Despite everything that has happened, they are the same race of people, and have 2000 years of shared history.

Really I think it is what has made the whole thing so tragic (not that war isn't in all cases - but reading about the Korean War really makes you angry with the sense of injustice involved).

 Pacific wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

 Pacific wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:
Whats the endgame? What happens if they continue to throw their tantrum, and everyone - other than having defenses at a higher state of readiness - just carries on?

One argument is that this is blackmail for food and other goodies (kind of a crappy version of Attila the Hun). What if we just ignore them, like an adult with a child?

What are they going to do then?

In most tantrums either the baby runs out of steam (this is what occured with GC) or they get violent. Depending on the parent the parent could wuss, drop the hammer, or smack em.

This is it absolutely.

SK knows that eventually the tantrum will end, as it always has done. They are just seeing how big a pack or ramyen they can get stuffed into their mouth to shut them up.

Why give them any ramen? You just keep the cycle going.
Unless you put some sort of laxative in the ramen...

I think because the South still shares a feeling of kinship with the North. Despite everything that has happened, they are the same race of people, and have 2000 years of shared history.

Really I think it is what has made the whole thing so tragic (not that war isn't in all cases - but reading about the Korean War really makes you angry with the sense of injustice involved).

The South Koreans I know hate North Korea with a passion, and they've told me that is the general feeling in the south. One of the women told me that she'd rather marry a Japanese than a North Korean, which says a lot about her feelings, anyway, since Japanese at the time were hated there.

Experiment 626 wrote:

 Dreadclaw69 wrote:

Relapse wrote:
That boy over there is really painting himself into a corner and is maybe getting ready to do some chest thumping after our exericises with South Korea are over by saying he chased us from the penninsula.
I just hope China is getting pissed at him and not us.

Yeah, he's painting himself into a corner with finger paints
I'm pretty sure China doesn't want North Korea doing anything silly, it could end up with China dealing with refugees from the conflict and a US sympathetic country on its border. That being said China is being surprisingly silent on this, and as one of North Korea's longest standing allies the international community's silence towards China is deafening. Had this been a US ally threatening a nuclear strike I'm sure China, Russia and others would be clamoring for the US to rein in their ally.

I have a feeling that China let their barking dog off it's leash at first to distract the rest of the developed world from the spying scandals they've recently been caught red-handed in.
Then of corse, they lose total control of their yappy little pooch and now have to distance themselves as much as possible... The quieter they stay on the NK issue, the more likely it is that the US/SK and everyone else ignore their initial potential involvement.

And I doubt NK will be 'allowed' to launch a nuke... It's not like China or Russia would even entertain the idea of having potential fallout so near their own borders, let alone being remarked/remembered as "the crazy dude who tried to begin a nuclear armageddon's BFF."

What exactly makes people think China and Russia would care all that much about a little fallout?

Sure, China won't like their fishing getting tainted but thats about it on their end. Russia has even less at stake, other than another commie love child going under.

Reminds me of the ME3 ending. Either the cycle continues...

...or someone finally chooses the red ending.

Personally I hope someone sends assassins to kill this idiot. Aside from giving us something to laugh at he serves no positive purpose on the world.

If we can turn the army against him, there will be a civil war. If we start a civil war Kim Jong Un will be too preoccupied to attack the West.If the next leader is still unstable, it will be relatively simple to jump in and mop up the scraps.

Relapse wrote:

Pacific wrote:

I think because the South still shares a feeling of kinship with the North. Despite everything that has happened, they are the same race of people, and have 2000 years of shared history.

Really I think it is what has made the whole thing so tragic (not that war isn't in all cases - but reading about the Korean War really makes you angry with the sense of injustice involved).

The South Koreans I know hate North Korea with a passion, and they've told me that is the general feeling in the south. One of the women told me that she'd rather marry a Japanese than a North Korean, which says a lot about her feelings, anyway, since Japanese at the time were hated there.

Absolute nonsense. I lived in the country for 3 years, take regular trips there for my business in the country, my fiancé is Korean and I constantly talk to friends and family in the country - not once have I heard that attitude expressed. On the whole their feelings are ones of hatred towards the administration, army leaders and Kim Jong Un, but an overwhelming sense of pity for the actual people of the North themselves.

If this was not the case then there would not be the large number outreach and re-patriation projects for people from the North, which always seem to get massive popular support.

Experiment 626 wrote:
I have a feeling that China let their barking dog off it's leash at first to distract the rest of the developed world from the spying scandals they've recently been caught red-handed in.
Then of corse, they lose total control of their yappy little pooch and now have to distance themselves as much as possible... The quieter they stay on the NK issue, the more likely it is that the US/SK and everyone else ignore their initial potential involvement.

And I doubt NK will be 'allowed' to launch a nuke... It's not like China or Russia would even entertain the idea of having potential fallout so near their own borders, let alone being remarked/remembered as "the crazy dude who tried to begin a nuclear armageddon's BFF."

Or they do what they have always done. They play the long game.
After Operation Geronimo they bought the remains of the helicopter the SEALS used from Pakistan so they could examine US stealth technology. If North Korea escalates the Chinese have a good seat to watch how the US conduct war on terrain similar to their home turf. If it happens I wouldn't be too surprised if the North Korean's also get a "donation" from the Chinese for some field testing.

Y'know, I'm not sure if the Chinese would actually do that. They're not that stupid.

The PRC is unarguably a malevolent, hostile power, but their modus operandi is constant duplicity, theft, and subversion, not so much overt military grandstanding. They know a conventional war with the US is impossible for both sides, and so are content to sponsor identity theft, fraud, economic subversion, and cyberterrorism. The PRC (which, by the way, isn't China: the legitimate Chinese government still exists, operating out of Taiwan under US protection; the illegitimate PRC just happens to hold the mainland) has also come out against NK already; their involvement is unlikely, and would probably be nothing but their own attack on NK to try and seize more land or make a grand display of "friendship" with the US, under some impression that if they just smile and pretend to play nice no one will notice their constant hostile actions.


Russia might, since their international policy these days is thumbing their nose at the US for the sake of appearance, while the old conflicts have largely been invalidated. It's unlikely they'd want to stick their noses into this particular sittuation, however.

Is there anything in NK worth having for the Chinese? Seems like assimilating a starved and brainwashed population would be far more trouble than its worth.

They'd most likely just lock down their border and force the South to absorb the North. That will be a nasty job for whoever takes it on and will keep attention away from them.

Its not in China's interest to take over the North from what I can see. Its a distraction they want to prolong as long as possible.

Right. It's quite unlikely they'd get involved at all beyond border security. If they did, they'd be against NK, however. They're far too comfortable, objectively because of US actions, to violently act against NATO forces.


I don't think they'd be overly concerned about sharing a border with a united korea either, as it would only mean more, easier trade, which is their lifeblood these days. It would also mean they wouldn't be heavily subsidizing NK anymore.

 ExNoctemNacimur wrote:
Y'know, I'm not sure if the Chinese would actually do that. They're not that stupid.

Before the Argentinian conflict in the early 80's the British were worried about the deployment of Exocet missles against their ships. The French, British allies who sold the missle system to the Argentinians before the conflict. The French warned the British that Argentina was attempting to acquire more through Peru. In spite of this warning, and their status as allies, the French helped the Argentinians train on the use of the missles that were later deployed and caused irreparable damage and disabled the Royal Navy destroyer HMS Sheffield, struck the 15,000 ton merchant ship Atlantic Conveyor (it sank while being towed 3 days later from the damage) and also caused damage to the destroyer HMS Glamorgan.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/9767736/Thatchers-blistering-attack-on-French-over-Exocets-during-Falklands.html


All from an ally with no direct stake in the conflict, no border dispute and no long term machinations against the UK. Now, compare that to China which has been carrying out cyber attacks, spying and buying US military tech.

Wow... NK actually went through with closing down the Kaesong complex:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57578357/n-korea-recalling-workers-from-joint-factory-complex/

This is troubling...

I guess they're thinking that having Kaesong closed for a few months before they declare that they'd like to heal their ties with the South and reopening it is seen as a permissible loss. Give it a year and the status quo will be resumed, with the north repairing their ties with the South by merely returning to the status quo to aclaim. "Look we signed a temporary peace treaty and reopened our phone line. Uh... please give us money and lay off some of the sanctions again?". Iterating this process only strengthens the public opinion of the North Korea people to the party, whilst having no real negative effects towards the world's view of the DPRK as it can't sink any lower. Well at least's that's what the part probably think.

Which is why we should seal the border in kind. Let them wither away and starve.

I'd rather see the government step down. Over time a leader should give in to the world's opinion and take the China route of instilling small amounts of change over time. The north has few resources, thus it can't exist without international aid. The extremist government holds the people in line where a democratic one couldn't if it were to remain isolated. If the DPRK were to open itself to the outside world it would have to be un-totalitarian for it to receive aid. For it to allow for enough international involvement to get into this situation it would have to not be led by so conservative a government.

War would be pointless. It would only result in the South inheriting a wasteland. For the South not to be negatively effected the transition would probably be required to be a slow integration.

 Grey Templar wrote:
Which is why we should seal the border in kind. Let them wither away and starve.

yep

EDIT: Correct that. I don't want anyone to starve. Time to move beyond the Hunlike blackmail though. We don't have to do anything.