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 filbert wrote:
I expect that this graph has already been posted and discussed but it bears repeating:

Hey look how the tabletop market is struggling
And 60 Mio $ is local coffee shop peanuts.
But listen what this CEO from Caterpillar has to say about the tabletop gaming market

Well it does of course hinge on what is termed a 'tabletop game' but even in the loosest definition, it doesn't really point to a shrinking or static market.

Without strictly defining TTG surely we can agree that there is a logical overlap between GW, other miniature game, board games, RPG games, and video games. In the sense that they all would go into the same Venn diagram.

Economists can, apparently, act just like Statisticians!

Now, I'm not sure what dereksatkinson is up too, or what his true motivation is, but it probably is a good time to remind everyone that, before anything gets too heated or out of hand, Dakka Dakka has an excellent "Ignore" feature.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Without strictly defining TTG surely we can agree that there is a logical overlap between GW, other miniature game, board games, RPG games, and video games. In the sense that they all would go into the same Venn diagram.

Yep, they will share many a venn diagram. From my perspective, selling them for a few decades:

GW used to have no competition, and now does from other games. They broke open the market, and trained a whole lot of ex-gw employees to go open up competing companies. Competition isn't just for dollars. Time is a much larger consideration in some ways. Only so much spare time to paint and play. Other tabletop games are now competition for them. And gaining ground.

Board Games, RPG's are slightly more likely to be played by GW customers than non gamers. Slightly. They aren't really in competition, and playing one doesn't really lead to the other. Possibly some help from shopping at a store that carries both, as you can have encounters with both people that play the other game and the game itself.

Video Games: HUGE competition for everything. Dollars, Time, social experience, organized play, online play at home where you don't need a group/other person.





Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Alpharius wrote:
Economists can, apparently, act just like Statisticians!

Now, I'm not sure what dereksatkinson is up too, or what his true motivation is, but it probably is a good time to remind everyone that, before anything gets too heated or out of hand, Dakka Dakka has an excellent "Ignore" feature.

And it works! I tested it on...someone...just yesterday

 Kilkrazy wrote:
2005 was the end of the LoTR bubble, which explains the big drop in sales in 2006-2007. Since then there has been a gradual decline.

It's hard to know why profits would decline so quickly in 2010 and 2012 -- some sort of extraordinary charges, perhaps.

GW worldwide total sales have not shown the same pattern of apparently continuous decline since 2005, as far as I am aware.

I presume your figures are not adjusted for inflation.

While I don't have any insider knowledge as to the exact effect in France or any other country, the finecast rollout was in 2012.

It makes you wonder if Finecast was just as big a disaster as half the people on DakkaDakka thought it was.

Kroothawk wrote:
Normal day: 170 shares bought, 5,639 shares sold.

shouldn't the two numbers be equal? or did somebody managed to sell some stocks without somebody else bying it?

Private Anton wrote:

Kroothawk wrote:
Normal day: 170 shares bought, 5,639 shares sold.

shouldn't the two numbers be equal? or did somebody managed to sell some stocks without somebody else bying it?

Could be they just categorize it based on who initiated the transaction. I.e. whether someone went looking to sell, or looking to buy.

 filbert wrote:
I expect that this graph has already been posted and discussed but it bears repeating:

Spoiler:

This says to me that money being spent on wargaming is by no means slowing down and that wargaming in general is increasing in size as a market. It also tallies with other anecdotal evidence from ICV2 and store owners that the wargaming market is healthy. If GW sales are down in the context of these results, then that most definitely does suggest to me that people are taking their $ elsewhere.

Is that all games or just Tabletop Games? If it is all games, it is heavily skewed by computer games. Also, despite what some people are saying, the board game market and miniature market appeal to very different crowds. While miniature gamers may buy into board games, there are many board gamers that will not buy into a miniature game.

Holding CB up as typical of the market is also misleading due to its size. As pointed out, smaller companies can produce massive growth percentage wise, but only be small dollar numbers.

And since Sean is now in the thread, any word on how FFG's X-Wing sales have been for the second half of the year? Up? Down? Steady?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 mikhaila wrote:


Video Games: HUGE competition for everything. Dollars, Time, social experience, organized play, online play at home where you don't need a group/other person.

And don't forget the whole app game market. Traditional video games are losing out them with younger people. Paying a few bucks for a week of entertainment beats the $300+ console plus $60 a game cost. My niece and nephew's faces are always buried in their iPad/iPhone all the time.

 mikhaila wrote:

Video Games: HUGE competition for everything. Dollars, Time, social experience, organized play, online play at home where you don't need a group/other person.

As an adult with young kids I had to prioritize, and Video Games lost to Wargaming. Before my sons were around I could kill a Saturday playing Fallout and then play table top games on Sunday. Now I've got to sneak in hobby time wherever I can, and playing a video game just reminds me of all the building, painting, and whatnot that I am not doing during that time. It feels very unproductive.

 Peregrine wrote:

Deadnight wrote:
Gw have a few thousand employees.

But how many do they have if you don't count their retail employees?

GW's website says they have 400 stores worldwide. So, assuming they've all not moved to 1-man operations etc. that's only give or take 5-600 staff.

weeble1000 wrote:

As an adult with young kids I had to prioritize, and Video Games lost to Wargaming. Before my sons were around I could kill a Saturday playing Fallout and then play table top games on Sunday. Now I've got to sneak in hobby time wherever I can, and playing a video game just reminds me of all the building, painting, and whatnot that I am not doing during that time. It feels very unproductive.

That's like reading my own inner thoughts. I think it also makes me a bit crankier when I go to tournaments--and run into TFG. The entire time I'm thinking, this is time away from my children/wife--and I have to deal with this?

 Kroothawk wrote:

 Sean_OBrien wrote:
2002 2001 Production 324 359 Selling and distribution: Full time 1,224 1,133 Key time 631 483 Administration 303 232

and the most recent figures:

2012 2011 Design and Development 114 90 Production 172 163 Selling and distribution: Full time 1010 1032 Part time 254 233 Administration 412 383

New report:
2013 2012 Design and Development 145 114 Production 168 172 Selling and distribution: Full time 916 1010 Part time 232 254 Administration 414 412 Total 1875 1962
So increase in Design, Development and Administration. Decrease in Production, Selling and Distribution plus totals

This is from the latest annual report. That is before they decided to close all HQs outside Nottingham.

 AgeOfEgos wrote:

weeble1000 wrote:

As an adult with young kids I had to prioritize, and Video Games lost to Wargaming. Before my sons were around I could kill a Saturday playing Fallout and then play table top games on Sunday. Now I've got to sneak in hobby time wherever I can, and playing a video game just reminds me of all the building, painting, and whatnot that I am not doing during that time. It feels very unproductive.

That's like reading my own inner thoughts. I think it also makes me a bit crankier when I go to tournaments--and run into TFG. The entire time I'm thinking, this is time away from my children/wife--and I have to deal with this?

Most of my hobby time now is actually spent on running a monthly game at my house where I write the rules, run the game, build and paint all of the models, make all of the terrain, and cook on top of that . Consequently I really appreciate X-Wing. That way I can play the occasional pickup game with the guys without taking time away from painting cowboys and building rocky bluffs. There is no time sunk in getting your models ready to play, lol. Perfectly tailored for busy wargamers because it doesn't feel like a cheap, pre-painted half arsed miniatures game. The models could be better, but they aren't embarrassing, and the game is both refreshing and offers plenty of depth.

 silent25 wrote:

 filbert wrote:
I expect that this graph has already been posted and discussed but it bears repeating:

Spoiler:

This says to me that money being spent on wargaming is by no means slowing down and that wargaming in general is increasing in size as a market. It also tallies with other anecdotal evidence from ICV2 and store owners that the wargaming market is healthy. If GW sales are down in the context of these results, then that most definitely does suggest to me that people are taking their $ elsewhere.

Is that all games or just Tabletop Games? If it is all games, it is heavily skewed by computer games. Also, despite what some people are saying, the board game market and miniature market appeal to very different crowds. While miniature gamers may buy into board games, there are many board gamers that will not buy into a miniature game.

Its colour coded showing which is video games and which are tabletop.

 Peregrine wrote:

Herzlos wrote:
If the rumours about scrapping all their metal stocks are true then it's a pretty bad sign, back of envelope figures show that they are selling the metal off for under about 2.5% of the potential value as minis.

Key point: potential value. If this is stuff that's just collecting dust in a warehouse somewhere because hardly anyone is buying it then that potential value might as well not exist. Worse, it actually costs money to keep it, so GW is actually getting less than 0% of the "value". And in that case it's better to get 2.5% of the theoretical retail price and clear out the inventory space than to keep it forever in the desperate hope that someone will buy it.

Consider an analogy: I can believe that I'm an awesome painter and put a model on ebay for $1 million, but I'd be pretty stupid to refuse an offer of $25,000 just because it's only 2.5% of my arbitrarily-assigned sale price.

But it feels very short-termist and shows a complete reluctance to engage with or seem to offer deals to the customer base, both of which approaches would have earned them much more money in the same term.

But you're looking at that too narrowly. Let's say GW offers you a $15 character model for $5 instead of selling it for $1 for scrap metal. You might think that GW just earned $4 more by offering you a discount, but what if buying that character model means that you don't buy the $15 plastic character model that has a similar role in your army? GW earned $4 more for their scrap metal, but it probably cost them more than $4 from the lost sale of the plastic kit. And, worse, they've potentially set up the expectation of more discounts in the future, which might make you hesitate to spend money right now if you think you might get a better deal in the future. So it's quite possible that they've analyzed the situation and decided that it's in their best interest to just destroy the obsolete stock and sell it for scrap metal.

Also, remember that this is stuff that isn't selling very well enough to convert to finecast or plastic, and TBH a lot of it is pretty bad models that wouldn't get any attention if it wasn't a "last chance to buy" situation. I don't think it's very realistic to expect significant increases in sales just because GW does a little marketing work.

One of the very few things you and I see eye to eye on is the GW portion of hobbying. This makes an absolute ton of sense-suggesting that (with your numbers) they made $16 ($15 for plastic, $1 for scrap) instead of a single $5 sale...yeah, I can see it. You know I hate agreeing with you, right?

 carlos13th wrote:

Its colour coded showing which is video games and which are tabletop.

<blink> <blink>

Damn my lying eyes!

Still with these kickstarter numbers, how many of the products launched with KS funds would have made that amount if they had gone through normal distribution? Having been burned by the Sedition Wars KS, I doubt the game would have made the nearly $1M it did through KS.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 timetowaste85 wrote:


One of the very few things you and I see eye to eye on is the GW portion of hobbying. This makes an absolute ton of sense-suggesting that (with your numbers) they made $16 ($15 for plastic, $1 for scrap) instead of a single $5 sale...yeah, I can see it. You know I hate agreeing with you, right?

Was pointed out over on Warseer that GW likely wrote off all the metal figures as a loss and claimed it on their taxes. No expert at tax law, but can't you claim ~1/3 the loss value on your taxes? They might have been able to get more by declaring the entire bundle as loss than selling at a discount where the products would move. And given the number of figs still available in metal on the site. The things that might have been melted were things like old Dogs of War units and such. Figures that don't have any use in the current games and might have had a small number of collectors grab some figs, but not the entire inventory.

 silent25 wrote:

And since Sean is now in the thread, any word on how FFG's X-Wing sales have been for the second half of the year? Up? Down? Steady?

I'd imagine down, way way way down... For the majority of the second half of last year, it seems, they haven't had any models produced to be sold!

Which, is probably a good place to be. First half of last year, X-Wing sales would have likely been... "All of it."

I'd like to know how many tabletop games are delivering compared to the number of video games.

 Compel wrote:

 silent25 wrote:

And since Sean is now in the thread, any word on how FFG's X-Wing sales have been for the second half of the year? Up? Down? Steady?

I'd imagine down, way way way down... For the majority of the second half of last year, it seems, they haven't had any models produced to be sold!

Which, is probably a good place to be. First half of last year, X-Wing sales would have likely been... "All of it."

Even here in Nottingham x-wing is doing superbly well. Demand far outstrips supply and I can't get my grubby mitts on tie interceptors for love nor money.

winterdyne wrote:

 Compel wrote:

 silent25 wrote:

And since Sean is now in the thread, any word on how FFG's X-Wing sales have been for the second half of the year? Up? Down? Steady?

I'd imagine down, way way way down... For the majority of the second half of last year, it seems, they haven't had any models produced to be sold!

Which, is probably a good place to be. First half of last year, X-Wing sales would have likely been... "All of it."

Even here in Nottingham x-wing is doing superbly well. Demand far outstrips supply and I can't get my grubby mitts on tie interceptors for love nor money.

Tell me about it. At least Imperial Aces comes with two!

winterdyne wrote:

 Compel wrote:

 silent25 wrote:

And since Sean is now in the thread, any word on how FFG's X-Wing sales have been for the second half of the year? Up? Down? Steady?

I'd imagine down, way way way down... For the majority of the second half of last year, it seems, they haven't had any models produced to be sold!

Which, is probably a good place to be. First half of last year, X-Wing sales would have likely been... "All of it."

Even here in Nottingham x-wing is doing superbly well. Demand far outstrips supply and I can't get my grubby mitts on tie interceptors for love nor money.

Though X-Wing's star seems to be waning a tiny bit as well.

ICv2 had it as the 2nd-best-selling miniatures game throughout 2012, pushing Warmachine to the No. 3 spot ( http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/25378.html )

In early 2013, Warmachine finally managed to claw its way back to 2nd. place ( http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/26216.html )

Fall 2013 sales are not out yet (I think).

A good question is how much of the drop in sales is due to supply issues? Pretty much everywhere I know that gets xwing stuff in is picked clean within a week, tops.

try

http://www.thediceshoponline.com/dice-sets/870/Star-Wars-X-Wing-Miniatures-Game

they seem to have stock more frequently than most

OT but how many models do you need for a good game of X Wing?

 Kilkrazy wrote:
OT but how many models do you need for a good game of X Wing?

2 Rebel vs. ~ 3-4 Imperial bare minimum, I'd say.

~ 4 Rebels vs. ~5+ Imperial being a solid level to game.

The contents of the starter box by themselves don't tend to make very engaging games, as a lot of the strategy is added to the game once you try to get your opponent in the cross-hairs of multiple ships. The starter-box 1 X-Wing vs. 2 Tie-Fighter often devolves into a game of lucky dice, chipping off hull-points and shield until the first person goes down.

That said, you can play it with just the starter box to get a feeling for what the rules do, etc..

 Kilkrazy wrote:
OT but how many models do you need for a good game of X Wing?

IIRC the cheapest possible horde spam model variant for Imperials is the TiE fighter at 12pts and A-wing at 17pts for rebels with the "standard" game that takes 1-1.5 hours being 100pts, which is the "feel" of a 1500pt 40k game (enough to field some variety but on the smallish side). A $100 MSRP buy in (starter set plus 4 regular boosters) gets you a decent sized force for one side with a model or two to trade another starting player to boost it even further (the starter comes with both imperials and a rebel fighter)

Generally speaking, one of the best ways to get into X Wing is going for 2 Starters sets, at which point you're not far off a typical wargame cost wise. But after that, rebs need maybe 1 more ship, and the imperials a couple more as a minimum.

On the other hand, that's pretty much it. <£100 all told, job done. The problem is, stopping yourself from buying 1 of everything.

Games Workshop is certainly in a difficult situation - falling revenue and profit.

1. There is more legitimate competition for the gamer's attention - Warmachine, Infinity and Flames of War are all professional operations with a constant flow of new product. I don't think the same thing could be said about the minis industry twenty years ago (and back then I was an employee at one of mikhaila's stores).

2. Video games in general are another massive source of distraction. Now it's not just PC, console and handheld - there's mobile and tablet.

3. Games Workshop has a HUGE barrier of entry. Even starter armies cost hundreds of dollars (if not more). Even worse, it's a massive time sink to assemble and paint those miniatures. And building an army isn't a simple matter; it takes a pretty good knowledge of the rules. There's not a lot of easy ways for a beginner to learn (other than to ask a friend, so what should I get?).

4. Kickstarter also allows smaller, boutique games to get some limelight from the enthusiast crowd. These games aren't likely to be big hits, but they do attract some of extreme minis enthusiasts.

5. A large part of their business depends upon operation of retail stores, which in general is extremely difficult in the internet age. More and more sales are being made online. Retail stores are expensive to operate.

In the short term, GW will want to address profit...and the only way to do that is to sell more units or to raise prices again. Unfortunately, they appear to be in high production mode; they're kicking out codices at a pace that's astonishing. And there's no Lord of the Rings type IP that can attract new players into the hobby (btw, it's rather astonishing that those players brought in by LOTR didn't convert into long term hobbyists...or perhaps it was just the same customers buying up the LOTR stuff?). That pretty much only leaves raising prices even more.

And in my perspective, it's not the cost that turns me off to 40K these days. It's the time. I simply can't take 3 hours out of my week to play a game, let alone paint & assemble. I've turned to other games, that don't have as much preparation and don't take as long to play. I've got plenty of other possible sources of entertainment. 40K just doesn't offer an experience that's so unique that I'll make the time.