Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

Been following this closely. No idea what the likely reprecussions are, but I'm putting blame on all parties involved.

Wish this could have been resolved somehow.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jun/27/greek-crisis-mps-referendum-tsipras-eurogroup-ministers-live

This is very scary. What kind of further chaos does this open Greece up to? I find myself wondering if some degree of civil war is in it's future.

Let's hope not. I honestly have no idea what will happen next, but I'm worried for my elderly parents and not-very-well-off sister and her kids home in Ireland.

 Da Boss wrote:
Let's hope not. I honestly have no idea what will happen next, but I'm worried for my elderly parents and not-very-well-off sister and her kids home in Ireland.

What do you think the repercussions for Ireland could be?

 Dreadclaw69 wrote:

 Da Boss wrote:
Let's hope not. I honestly have no idea what will happen next, but I'm worried for my elderly parents and not-very-well-off sister and her kids home in Ireland.

What do you think the repercussions for Ireland could be?

Invaded by greeks hiding in a giant wooden pint glass?

Frankly this HAD to happen. While moves were made to save a deal, I suspect that the European partners did not try hard.

Greece elected a government which raised a popular mandate on rejecting austerity. There is a lot of political mileage in standing on that bandwagon.
This essentially means. 'We the Greek government may well be responsible for the mess, but it profits us to ignore the debt and let it be someone else's problem.'
This leaves the European partners two choices:

1. Bail out Greece.
Greece will not make necessary savings because by avoiding these savings the people in power remain in power. Greece got into debt by making short term policies that garnered immediate votes rather than by making sound hard choices. Those advocating sound economics couldn't offer as much cake on the day, and didn't get elected.

2. Not bail out Greece.
Greece fails as an economy. his sucks for Greece its good for the Eurozone who manage to burn some dead wood, and for those governments in countries that desperately need austerity but face opposition parties who oppose austerity on a populist ticket.
It is also a warning the people that 'borrow and squander' economic policies are unsustainable and should end.

The kicker:
It is all too easy to hoodwink the people that a short term wasteful spending or revenue policy is wise, politicians have an easy path as short term benefits are visible.
Those with longer term viewpoints cant generate as much immediate short term benefit and thus ironically appear less competent while being considerably more.
Western politics doesn't favour long term planning, so a hard shock is required for perspective.

In a nutshell:
While Greece isn't being undermined, the Greek government is being left to do what the numbers say will happen, Greece must be allowed to fail to save other debt ridden economies. Immediately Ireland, Spain and Portugal, and ultimately France and the UK. The later two cant be allowed to fail, but have sizable anti-austerity parties. In the UK the SNP is heavily anti-austerity and wants to follow a heavy borrowing policy. The SNP has the horrible advantage that it can boor against a UK economy while squandering only for a partisan portion of the population. This is why SNP demands for extra borrowing powers under their 'mandate' are being strongly resisted by Whitehall.
Greece's fall may well save others by saving austerity and making it more palletable than the alternatives.

No idea, maybe higher cost of borrowing, speculation that we might be next to leave the Eurozone, general deepening of the recession at a time when we need growth badly- I have no idea. I'm just pretty worried.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Orlanth: I have to go to my school's prom right now, but there are elements of your argument that I strongly disagree with. The IMF was incredibly inflexible in these negotiations, and I feel there was a political element to keeping the left in Europe down across the majority of the Centre Right establishments.

The Greeks bear much responsibility too, though, for poor choices, poor borrowing and not being willing to face up to that responsibility, blaming Germany instead.

I believe Greece could have been saved if the political will had been there. It wasn't.

I find it mildly bemusing that the idea of taking the Greek decision to a democratic referendum is currently seen in the media as 'opposing the EU'. Either the Greeks want to accept the cuts in exchange for continued ability to make repayments, or they'll choose to default. Whichever it is, it's up for them to decide. What the EU wants in this scenario, has nothing to do with anything any more. A democratically elected government is holding a directly democratic referendum on a decision that will dictate the economic future of their country. That seems fair.

 Da Boss wrote:

Orlanth: I have to go to my school's prom right now, but there are elements of your argument that I strongly disagree with.

Fair enough.

 Da Boss wrote:

The IMF was incredibly inflexible in these negotiations,

As they should be, the Greek government stood on a ticket of non payment, and got elected.
Grrece will go bankrupt and will be in a better condition afterwards than if they tried austerity half measures while the people were too short sighted to back them, and the politicians too corrupt and greedy.

 Da Boss wrote:

and I feel there was a political element to keeping the left in Europe down across the majority of the Centre Right establishments.

Left and right had little to do with it, a number of left wing parties understand balancing the books too.

 Da Boss wrote:

The Greeks bear much responsibility too, though, for poor choices, poor borrowing and not being willing to face up to that responsibility, blaming Germany instead.

That didn't endear them, it was also not so much Greece's opinion but the elected anti austerity government. They made it very plain to everyone they wanted no economic responsibility.

 Da Boss wrote:

I believe Greece could have been saved if the political will had been there. It wasn't.

Greece rejected voting for those who had the will by concious decision. They expected a perpetual free pass and for the good times to keep on rolling. They were wrong and had to understand the consequences.

Put it this way:
If you were a bank manager and someone got a loan then went to a casino, then asked for another loan, would it be harsh, unfair or discriminatory to refuse?

Good, this has to end at some point.

They cannot exist on loans forever. Loans MUST be repaid.
It will hurt but right now they owe more than can ever be repaid.

Europe is the only one willing to loan then a single cent, and that's to repay the IMF. How do they repay the loan, for repaying the loan.

The circle must end at some point.

I'm firmly in the Greek corner here. I applaud any government that's going to put the welfare of its people ahead of its economy , and stand up to the EU. Good on the PM for sticking to his guns, I hope the Greek public backs him.

No idea, maybe higher cost of borrowing, speculation that we might be next to leave the Eurozone, general deepening of the recession at a time when we need growth badly- I have no idea. I'm just pretty worried.

With all due respect DA, Im not sure where you are coming from. How or why is Ireland next on the list to leave the EU?
Every single report from the IMF to the ESRI to IBEC accept that Irelands growth both this year and next is projected at 3+ % which is a huge turnaround from the recession days.
Unemployment is down from 15% to 9.7%, we recently had our credit rating upgraded from at one point close to junk now to a-a+ (depending on the agency) and there have been a series of very big profile investment agreements from USMNs and EU companies of late.
Yes inflation rates are down again as of April which raises fears of sustained deflation but after the horrors of the pre 2008 prices (especially in the fething housing market) Im happy about it (short term).

Where are your fears arising from?

I wish them all the best, although to come at this point it would seem a lot of the entities on either side have failed to do their task.

If you were a bank manager and someone got a loan then went to a casino, then asked for another loan, would it be harsh, unfair or discriminatory to refuse?

It would not surprised me to find out that he'd been given the loan, so he could buy the casino.

From my perspective, it looks like both parties are acting against their mutual interests.

Yes, in most ways, the Greeks did this to themselves and deserve to reap the consequences. The problem is, is that really the best outcome for Europe?

The big European powers are acting hamfistedly and without regard to potential geo-political consequences and the possible ramifications of what could happen if Greece were to exit the Eurozone and the EU, and the potential destabilizing effect that could have, in order to "stick it to 'em, they deserve it."

On the other hand, the current Greek government is acting like a band of amateur idealists who actually believe their own bs, like the sixteen year old wearing the Che Guevara shirt and espousing ideals of which they have no idea or the stereotypical college student who's taken a single politics course and believe they know it all, when they know almost nothing.

You've got the grumpy old man who can't see beyond his nose at the potential disaster awaiting him, fighting the unrealistic idealist who can't see the ground he's walking on is ready to give way.

Spent an hour on homework, this is a good start:
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/assistance_eu_ms/greek_loan_facility/index_en.htm

Long and the short of it:
"The people" did not want to pay more ever as shown with any referendum or voting no matter how explained.
Decades of consistent spending more than earnings.
Public accepted practice of tax evasion.
Reforms that were required was to improve collection and improve political transparency due to corruption issues.
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/occasional_paper/2014/op192_en.htm

Mention of terms being inflexible makes me nuts, it shows many reasonable attempts were made earlier and now they have been deferred so long it now has to slip into painful to survive.

The people have spoken: they expect others to save them but will make few efforts to ensure they can stand on their own two feet for the future: debt load is to the point of no getting out from it.

Unfortunately, the only logical choice is to no longer extend loans and the debt holders to claim a default against Greece.
The consequences are theirs to bear.

 Talizvar wrote:
Spent an hour on homework, this is a good start:
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/assistance_eu_ms/greek_loan_facility/index_en.htm

Long and the short of it:
"The people" did not want to pay more ever as shown with any referendum or voting no matter how explained.
Decades of consistent spending more than earnings.
Public accepted practice of tax evasion.
Reforms that were required was to improve collection and improve political transparency due to corruption issues.
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/occasional_paper/2014/op192_en.htm

Mention of terms being inflexible makes me nuts, it shows many reasonable attempts were made earlier and now they have been deferred so long it now has to slip into painful to survive.

The people have spoken: they expect others to save them but will make few efforts to ensure they can stand on their own two feet for the future: debt load is to the point of no getting out from it.

Unfortunately, the only logical choice is to no longer extend loans and the debt holders to claim a default against Greece.
The consequences are theirs to bear.

It is also claimed that the Greeks and the EU at large cooked the books to ensure Greeces change to the Euro currency.

There is historic massive public funding and subsidy of pensions, the civil service etc. They deffo do not want to reduce their earning potential.

Ouch...

The run has begun:
http://www.protothema.gr/greece/article/488135/mesa-sti-nuhta-o-kosmos-speudei-sta-atm/

Just looks like a Dublin Saturday night ATM booze cue tbh

 Talizvar wrote:

The consequences are theirs to bear.

The problem is that the consequences most likely will not be isolated to Greece, and opens up some potentially uncomfortable geopolitical issues.

Yes this what is distressing:
Savings bonds were considered as a means to drum up money but surveys found people did not think the government would pay them.
Meanwhile they fully expect their pensions with retirement in your 50's.

With all this, the expectations of being owed bailout money is there when their own people think their government is not good for it and will not stand for any conditions to ensure future payment to those loaning the money?

Madness.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Vaktathi wrote:

 Talizvar wrote:

The consequences are theirs to bear.

The problem is that the consequences most likely will not be isolated to Greece, and opens up some potentially uncomfortable geopolitical issues.

Bankruptcy is never pretty.
Greece and it's citizens will have no financial worth in their state of whatever currency they are stuck with: no buying power and cut off from loans.
Multiple groups now have to write off money owed by Greece or pursue means of recupement.
The euro as a currency will take a big hit.

I hate to say though, the only alternative to not curbing spending or increasing income to live within your means is to have no money and all the regrettable things that condition entails. This was a predictable outcome, it's timing was solely based on lender's nerve.

The problem is you have to set boundaries. You can't just let Greece waltz off without paying its debts. It sets a horrible precedent for other struggling (much larger) economies in Europe. The EU (Germany in particular) has a vested interest in making the terms harsh enough as insurance against a Spanish or Portuguese attempt at the same thing.

The Greeks will never realistically pay off their debts. As it stands they owe 1.7 billion Euro by the 30th but that's just the tip of the iceberg. They owe a fourth 6 billion by the end of July and 7 billion by the end of August IIRC. It's a risky move to let Greece depart the eurozone, because other countries will closely watch how the Greek economy recovers. If their crashing out of the Eurozone isn't too disastrous, other countries might be tempted to do the same.

I'm a relatively uninformed spectator here, so I could be very very wrong.

Ireland owed 67 billion (obviously broken down into payable chunks) and on par, we came out of it alright:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2010/nov/28/ireland-bailout-full-government-statement

Greece needs ( and needed) to make a fundamental shift in its economic base (massive civil service paymewnts/entitlements, dependance on tourism/food exports, upskilling into hitech service industries, focus on power (industry) restucturing/efficencies). I hope they do tbh but they have left it mindbogglingly late to make that shift and change.

The shared currencies is a fine safety net but cannot be a mechanism for abuse, as mentioned: why hold your end of the bargain at the cost of you citizens and political poll levels while others take the short term approach?

A partnership is only as fair as what is contributed.
I am angered by the Greek "entitlement" yet the suffering is real.

They deserve consequence for their actions but the magnitude is up to world conditions and it may exceed any feelings of justice.

 Talizvar wrote:
Yes this what is distressing:
Savings bonds were considered as a means to drum up money but surveys found people did not think the government would pay them.
Meanwhile they fully expect their pensions with retirement in your 50's.

With all this, the expectations of being owed bailout money is there when their own people think their government is not good for it and will not stand for any conditions to ensure future payment to those loaning the money?

Madness.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Vaktathi wrote:

 Talizvar wrote:

The consequences are theirs to bear.

The problem is that the consequences most likely will not be isolated to Greece, and opens up some potentially uncomfortable geopolitical issues.

Bankruptcy is never pretty.
Greece and it's citizens will have no financial worth in their state of whatever currency they are stuck with: no buying power and cut off from loans.
Multiple groups now have to write off money owed by Greece or pursue means of recupement.
The euro as a currency will take a big hit.

I hate to say though, the only alternative to not curbing spending or increasing income to live within your means is to have no money and all the regrettable things that condition entails. This was a predictable outcome, it's timing was solely based on lender's nerve.

All true, however there was a large willingness on the part of other EU nations and groups to overlook these problems when times were good to get Greece into the Eurozone for other reasons. Due diligence was not done in many cases, or in cases in which it was, often ignored. They accepted that risk with a fair idea that it was more than what was on paper, and now seem to be trying to shirk their part of it.


There are other issues however as well. Awkward situations can arise with all the refugees and migrants going through Greece. Greece could seek economic and political ties elsewhere. A destabilization in that area could potentially incite new conflicts in an area that's had something like a dozen wars in the last ~120 years. Confidence in the EU as a political institution and stabilizing force in Europe will take a major hit. These are all issues that should be paid some heed.

Don't get me wrong, the Greek government has acted insanely irresponsibly and in some ways continues to do so, and should bear the consequences. But others willfully enabled that behavior to suit their own ends, and there are now a lot of major considerations beyond just fiscal negligence.

All true, however there was a large willingness on the part of other EU nations and groups to overlook these problems. Due diligence was not done in many cases, or in cases in which it was, often ignored. They accepted that risk with a fair idea that it was more than what was on paper, and now seem to be trying to shirk their part of it.

QFT.

ISIS and Taliban are fine examples of the predatory / opportunistic forces that can move in when countries are destabilized so they will still need to be assisted / managed for the sake of the region if bankruptcy is in their future.

ISIS and Taliban are fine examples of the predatory / opportunistic forces that can move in when countries are destabilized so they will still need to be assisted / managed for the sake of the region if bankruptcy is in their future.

Theres monetary destabilsation/disruption and then theres no working/legitimate government, ultra polarised factions, religious fanatacism, "Western hate motives", Jihadist ferver and absolute regional mayhem.

The comparison is seriosuly tenuous imo. Seriously.

 Talizvar wrote:
ISIS and Taliban are fine examples of the predatory / opportunistic forces that can move in when countries are destabilized so they will still need to be assisted / managed for the sake of the region if bankruptcy is in their future.

This is more than a wee bit of a ridiculous comparison.

Really, the concern should be that a force like them (or, more realistically, Golden Dawn) could take control in the event of a Greek collapse.

Essentially for me its like saying if Ireland had have left the EU, the IRA would be running around sending suicide Irish Ferries into Liverpool.

Sorry for being facetious on such a grim topic but I cant get my head around the comparison.

 Ratius wrote:
Theres monetary destabilsation/disruption and then theres no working/legitimate government, ultra polarised factions, religious fanatacism, "Western hate motives", Jihadist ferver and absolute regional mayhem.
The comparison is seriosuly tenuous imo. Seriously.

Not the threat of some organization less receptive to ethical behavior taking root, it is a fair comparison.

The government has flipped how many times now in Greece? How legitimate does it appear to the people?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/23/greeces-political-stability-violence-escalates
Polarized factions? There will be no shortage with unrest.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-24/greece-s-political-parties-a-brief-guide-to-who-s-who
Well, religion wise unless Greek Orthodox they are rather intolerant of other groups so that is not as much an issue.

With unrest comes the rise of hate groups.
http://www.oneworlduv.com/2013/10/in-greece-the-rise-of-hate-groups-poses-a-real-challenge/

<edit> Did I forget to mention much political corruption needing to be addressed?
It is systemic and is a part of the citizenry culture.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2014/08/22/why-can-greece-shake-its-corruption-problem/6nwZglU9cmn70xg2x4sobM/story.html

The comparison is not tenuous when you got a bunch of pissed off, unemployed, broke people looking for someone to blame other than themselves.
Some of the more charismatic and ruthless would smell the opportunity. Seriously.