Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

Guys, apparently, there is a possibility that England and Wales could leave the eu but Scotland and N. Ireland could remain within it. And without breaking up the UK!

This idea uses the relationship between Denmark and Greenland and the Faroe Islands as its model. The latter are both dependencies of Denmark but unlike Denmark they are not members of the EU. And nobody is complaining about that!

This is it. This is what the future PM has to do. Get Scotland involved, and say to the EU "let Scotland and Northern Ireland take our place at the table together and give them our status quo whilst England and Wales leave".

Obviously it's more complicated than that but it might work. Maybe.

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Selym wrote:
It is, but the theory is that actually employing it against anything other than a renegade government is monarchical suicide.

Though having the Queen block Brexit would be pretty hilarious as she's often held up as the pinnacle of British Sovereignty seeing as she is the sovereign

What would the next campaign be, take our country back from the Queen?

If it gets to that, you could always call our big orange hairpiece of a GOP POTUS candidate and ask him to build a wall around Buckingham Palace! But be careful, he'll probably insist on putting his name on the side of it!

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Guys, apparently, there is a possibility that England and Wales could leave the eu but Scotland and N. Ireland could remain within it. And without breaking up the UK!

The Celtic Union is more likely.....

Herzlos wrote:
So I'm seeing a lot of news that a lot of leave voters are having a change of heart due to protest votes or not understanding the consequences, does that fit in with what people are seeing?

You guys on here are the only "leavers" I've actually encountered (my work/hometome constituencies were ~75% remain), so I'm curious as to how it actually is for leave majority areas.

I don't actually know any Leave voters, except my parents. My area voted 55:45 for Remain, with an 80% turnout. My parents' area voted 60:40 for Remain, with a 70% turnout.

My father is 87, spent half his life under the Empire, wants cheap New Zealand lamb and butter agains, says these damned foreigners spoil the food by putting garlic in everything, etc. In other words he's a bit of an old buffer.

My mother hasn't given any reasons for her vote. I think she may actually have voted Remain but doesn't want to argue with my father.

I haven't gone round canvassing all my colleagues and relatives, though. The 20-ish I have spoken too all voted or supported Remain.

Obviously it's different if you live in an area with a high Leave vote. This is part of what makes the referendum so divisive.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 angelofvengeance wrote:
Don't know if anyone saw but a senior Labour MP, David Lammy (Tottenham) wants a commons vote to overturn the EU referendum result. Possible political suicide there lol.

http://news.sky.com/story/1717556/labour-mp-urges-commons-vote-to-block-brexit

The result is a fact, it can't be overturned. However Parliament is not bound to follow it through.

MPs and party strategists are no doubt running an analysis of the referendum 'constituency' results against the actual parliamentary constitituencies, to see the possible results of a general election contested on the main issue of Brexit.

In other words, parliament to be dissolved, and a general election to be run with each MP making a key part of his platform a commitment to or against Brexit. Otherwise, what might happen in 2020 if the current parliament ignores the referendum result.




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Guys, apparently, there is a possibility that England and Wales could leave the eu but Scotland and N. Ireland could remain within it. And without breaking up the UK!

This idea uses the relationship between Denmark and Greenland and the Faroe Islands as its model. The latter are both dependencies of Denmark but unlike Denmark they are not members of the EU. And nobody is complaining about that!

This is it. This is what the future PM has to do. Get Scotland involved, and say to the EU "let Scotland and Northern Ireland take our place at the table together and give them our status quo whilst England and Wales leave".

Obviously it's more complicated than that but it might work. Maybe.

Greenland is a separate country. It left the EU in 1986(?) They are now thinking of applying for membership.

I don't know the situation of the Faroe Islands, but the Isle of Man is not part of the EU or EEA but gets access to these through Protocol Three of the treaty of accession.

However I think that's only realistic because the IoM is a relatively small dependency of the UK, while London by itself is bigger in population and economy terms than Scotland. For England to be "out" of the EU and retain access by Protocol Three sounds a bit like rules lawyering. Also, presumably it would continue to allow free movement of peoples, which is what a lot of Brexiteers want to stop.

Half of top team labour set to resign.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36632956

Update


Up to half of the shadow cabinet is set to resign in a bid to force Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to step down, the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg understands.

It follows the sacking of shadow foreign secretary Hilary Benn by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn overnight.

Shadow health secretary Heidi Alexander has said "with a heavy heart" that she is resigning.

Mr Corbyn faces a vote of no confidence over claims he was "lacklustre" during the EU referendum.

A Labour source told the BBC Mr Corbyn had "lost confidence" in Mr Benn.

Mr Benn, who is to appear on the Andrew Marr Show shortly, said there was concern about Mr Corbyn's "leadership and his ability to win an election".

He added: "There is no confidence to win the next election if Jeremy continues as leader.

Ms Alexander, who joined Mr Corbyn's shadow cabinet last year, tweeted: "It is with a heavy heart that I have this morning resigned from the shadow cabinet."

In a letter to the Labour leader, she wrote: "Our country needs an effective opposition which can hold the government to account."

The letter continued: "As much as I respect you as a man of principle, I do not believe you have the capacity to shape the answers our country is demanding and I believe that if we are to form the next government, a change of leadership is essential."

"In a phone call to Jeremy I told him I had lost confidence in his ability to lead the party and he dismissed me."

The Labour party campaigned for Remain during the referendum, which saw the UK voting to leave the EU by 52% to 48% on Thursday.

Benn has a point- Corbyn is not Prime Minister material and he's barely opposition material either IMO.

EU affirms that Article 50 must be explicitly triggered, not implicitly:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36632579

Angela Merkel "said that deterring other countries from leaving the EU should not be a priority in the talks."

Wanting both access to the common market and exemption from the free movement is a bit silly when the first presupposes the second. The four freedoms is the essence of the EU, they are not going to be as negotiable as Britain may want.

 angelofvengeance wrote:
Benn has a point- Corbyn is not Prime Minister material and he's barely opposition material either IMO.

When the alternatives include Bojo the clown, Teresa May and Micheal Gove he looks a lot more electable. This is nothing but 'new' Labour rabblerousing who are still ignoring the huge mandate that Jeremy Corbyn received from the Labour party membership.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

 angelofvengeance wrote:
Benn has a point- Corbyn is not Prime Minister material and he's barely opposition material either IMO.

When the alternatives include Bojo the clown, Teresa May and Micheal Gove he looks a lot more electable. This is nothing but 'new' Labour rabblerousing who are still ignoring the huge mandate that Jeremy Corbyn received from the Labour party membership.

Agreed

Scottish Independence referendum took a blow with the EU ministers saying the UK as a whole must leave the EU (and Scotland would have to apply as a separate nation). Maybe not enough to stop the SNP/Sturgeon, but enough to reconsider.

It's interesting to see the political opinions of many EU ministers, with Merkel opting for a calm, steady approach and other ministers telling the UK to hurry up and get out.

EDIT: Just read that Farage has said the UK will head for a mild recession, but would have happened regardless of Brexit.

Personally, I don't think we can take any financial outcomes of this decision just yet, only that the future looks uncertain for the time being.

The main issue now is to unite the country in this decision to please the Remain voters as well as Leave voters.

..regardless PM's Question Time this week is going to be hilarious.

Dead men Walking indeed

 Selym wrote:
I woke up confused this morning, as to whether Brexit was right after all. After reading this, my reaction was "Bugger!"
I guess deep down I have a real preference for Brexit...

Not sure how I feel about that.

The important thing to always do is question why you feel this way (and applies to anything you do). By default humans are emotional creatures and we can easily be swayed by emotional drawing statements that give rise to populist movements.

If you can ask yourself why then it is the first step on understanding and ensuring that the view you have is rational not emotional. Groups that favour emotional arguments (and distorted facts) appeal because they appear to be simple solutions to complex problems which rarely work or make things worse (which can the invoke another wave of populist movements). This has happened before, the arguments that we are hearing today are not far off the arguments that were heard in Germany in the 1930s. The only difference is today we have a much better ability as individuals to go out and understand the issues, empathise with the other side of argument. The question you should ask yourself is have you gone out and looked into the areas that concern you, talk to the other side as to how they see thing and if you think things can change then talk to your MPs. It's too easy to listen to demagogues, it saves time in a hectic world. But making decisions without the correct information can lead to a disaster of our own making.

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:
Wanting both access to the common market and exemption from the free movement is a bit silly when the first presupposes the second. The four freedoms is the essence of the EU, they are not going to be as negotiable as Britain may want.

This was always one of the arguments against Brexit, but I think a lot of people didn't know or understand, or perhaps didn't care. In fact it may have inflamed anti-EU opinion even more, and got people thinking they damn well would vote Brexit and damn the EU bureaucracy and their stupid rules.

However with as large an economy as the UK has, there may be a possibility of a compromise solution, such as an annual quota for EU transmigration. Perhaps the UK could admit as many people each year as Britons go abroad, or something. (I'm thinking out loud...)

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:
Wanting both access to the common market and exemption from the free movement is a bit silly when the first presupposes the second. The four freedoms is the essence of the EU, they are not going to be as negotiable as Britain may want.

This was always one of the arguments against Brexit, but I think a lot of people didn't know or understand, or perhaps didn't care. In fact it may have inflamed anti-EU opinion even more, and got people thinking they damn well would vote Brexit and damn the EU bureaucracy and their stupid rules.

However with as large an economy as the UK has, there may be a possibility of a compromise solution, such as an annual quota for EU transmigration. Perhaps the UK could admit as many people each year as Britons go abroad, or something. (I'm thinking out loud...)

Certainly an idea, although I think it would be hard to keep track of British emigrants. I think the most feasible option would be fast-track visa, or even visa-free travel between the UK/EU nations.
Again, an idea. The government needs to brainstorm and have some sort of plan (that they are willing to compromise on). I think the most likely end result is to allow free movement regardless, since it's a core EU principle and one they aren't willing to budge on (but hey, with the UK being a key contributor, they might compromise more?)

There'll be a lot of thrashing about these next few weeks. We had the denial stage on Friday and Saturday, now we've got the anger stage to go through. But once things calm down, realpolitik will kick in, and you'll start to see and hear better discussions between Britain and the rest of the EU.

As for Labour, it's hilarious to see a bunch of Blairites, who started the rot years ago, blaming Corbyn for losing the referendum...

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:
Wanting both access to the common market and exemption from the free movement is a bit silly when the first presupposes the second. The four freedoms is the essence of the EU, they are not going to be as negotiable as Britain may want.

This was always one of the arguments against Brexit, but I think a lot of people didn't know or understand, or perhaps didn't care. In fact it may have inflamed anti-EU opinion even more, and got people thinking they damn well would vote Brexit and damn the EU bureaucracy and their stupid rules.

However with as large an economy as the UK has, there may be a possibility of a compromise solution, such as an annual quota for EU transmigration. Perhaps the UK could admit as many people each year as Britons go abroad, or something. (I'm thinking out loud...)

An equivalent exchange looks good on paper, but is just going to pour petrol onto the fire that is the "Rule Britannia" side of Brexit. From their view, it'd look like Britain loses X amount of Brits per year, to be replaced by X amount of "them foreigners". If they forget the numbers involved in migration, they'll see it as a net loss for the UK.

 Frozocrone wrote:
Scottish Independence referendum took a blow with the EU ministers saying the UK as a whole must leave the EU (and Scotland would have to apply as a separate nation). Maybe not enough to stop the SNP/Sturgeon, but enough to reconsider.

It's interesting to see the political opinions of many EU ministers, with Merkel opting for a calm, steady approach and other ministers telling the UK to hurry up and get out.

EDIT: Just read that Farage has said the UK will head for a mild recession, but would have happened regardless of Brexit.

Personally, I don't think we can take any financial outcomes of this decision just yet, only that the future looks uncertain for the time being.

The main issue now is to unite the country in this decision to please the Remain voters as well as Leave voters.

To be honest my view of Merkel has improved considerably over the last couple of days. She seems to be one of the few rational voices that is trying to view the bigger picture. She may also recognise that the vote was so close that the overall outcome is yet undecided. I understand that the other EU leaders want a quick exit but that is likely to be that the longer the uncertainty with the UK lasts the louder the 'me too' referendum calls would be.

Farage I think is relying on a recession. A recession will only favour UKIP in a general election if it occurs in a few years as he will be able to hammer home that the traditional parties are failing and only 'he' can bring it back together. With the further frustration and anger a recession will bring it will only further bolster populist soundbites.

It's going to be difficult to bring the two sides together though. If it has been a 70:30 split then the 'losing' side might have said fair enough but with the vote effectively being split equal then there are valid arguments on both sides. The only thing the referendum showed is that as a population overall we do not know which direction is preferable. What we really need is a strong government with all the parties coming out and leading the country as a whole. Instead we have two parties ripping each other apart with Lib Dems being absolutely nowhere and effectively leaving the two sides of the argument to the population to resolve. The risk is that the population could do irredeemable long term damage to itself in the meantime (NI is a good example of this). The only person that is winning out of all this mess at the moment is NF and that is not a good thing.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
There'll be a lot of thrashing about these next few weeks. We had the denial stage on Friday and Saturday, now we've got the anger stage to go through. But once things calm down, realpolitik will kick in, and you'll start to see and hear better discussions between Britain and the rest of the EU.

As for Labour, it's hilarious to see a bunch of Blairites, who started the rot years ago, blaming Corbyn for losing the referendum...

Lib Dems already with the Bargaining stage (vote us in and we'll stay in EU)

People had a right to celebrate/feel upset regarding the vote, now we (both Leave and Remain) have to pull together and try and figure out the best way forward.

 Frozocrone wrote:
Scottish Independence referendum took a blow with the EU ministers saying the UK as a whole must leave the EU (and Scotland would have to apply as a separate nation).

How is that a blow? It's pretty obvious that is the case. Its quite possible that the UK leaves the EU on the Monday and an independent Scotland joins it on the Tuesday.

 Selym wrote:
An equivalent exchange looks good on paper, but is just going to pour petrol onto the fire that is the "Rule Britannia" side of Brexit. From their view, it'd look like Britain loses X amount of Brits per year, to be replaced by X amount of "them foreigners". If they forget the numbers involved in migration, they'll see it as a net loss for the UK.

Barring the practicalities of instigating such a measure, you also run the risk that the people entering and leaving are significantly different in their education/career prospects. It was quite clear that the better off, better educated fraction of the population preferred to remain as they are more likely to be socially and economically mobile. A general exodus of these types of people (doctors, teachers etc) from the country would not be a good thing unless the people incoming were equivalent but then that would be clearly against the EUs free movement aims. I'm in my final year of a PhD and the last couple of days have got me seriously considering whether I could switch to another EU country if the UK finally does decide to make a break for it. I don't see why 50% of the population should be punished for what in effect is failings of the last 30 years of government to more evenly distribute wealth. Of course then the UK would be limiting its own citizens as to what they can do....

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

 Frozocrone wrote:
Scottish Independence referendum took a blow with the EU ministers saying the UK as a whole must leave the EU (and Scotland would have to apply as a separate nation).

How is that a blow? It's pretty obvious that is the case. Its quite possible that the UK leaves the EU on the Monday and an independent Scotland joins it on the Tuesday.

One of the possibilities.

To be fair to Sturgeon and the SNP she is whipping up support before reasoned debate kicks in. There is a long way to go.

Good on the Scots though should they break away and become part of the EU.

Corbyn lost because he knew he was elected mainly by people who are pro-Brexit, and so he didn't campaign with any force or conviction.

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:
Wanting both access to the common market and exemption from the free movement is a bit silly when the first presupposes the second. The four freedoms is the essence of the EU, they are not going to be as negotiable as Britain may want.

This was always one of the arguments against Brexit, but I think a lot of people didn't know or understand, or perhaps didn't care. In fact it may have inflamed anti-EU opinion even more, and got people thinking they damn well would vote Brexit and damn the EU bureaucracy and their stupid rules.

However with as large an economy as the UK has, there may be a possibility of a compromise solution, such as an annual quota for EU transmigration. Perhaps the UK could admit as many people each year as Britons go abroad, or something. (I'm thinking out loud...)

Again, the four freedoms (people, goods, services, and capital) are the foundations of the EU. They're what makes the common market possible in the first place. The UK already had extraordinary exemptions, it's unlikely that further exemptions would be possible without defeating the entire point of the common market.

On a separate note, I agree with the sentiment that this is internal British politics that have spiralled out of control. Whether the UK stays in the EU or leaves is a side-issue, the real issue is the simultaneous collapse of both Labour and the Tories.

 Frozocrone wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
There'll be a lot of thrashing about these next few weeks. We had the denial stage on Friday and Saturday, now we've got the anger stage to go through. But once things calm down, realpolitik will kick in, and you'll start to see and hear better discussions between Britain and the rest of the EU.

As for Labour, it's hilarious to see a bunch of Blairites, who started the rot years ago, blaming Corbyn for losing the referendum...

Lib Dems already with the Bargaining stage (vote us in and we'll stay in EU)

People had a right to celebrate/feel upset regarding the vote, now we (both Leave and Remain) have to pull together and try and figure out the best way forward.

Labour are still a party that craves power and its members have a nagging fear of inferiority when comparing their past endeavours. The Blairites are just a small part of that malaise (they are the loudest though, and conversely, get talked about all the more).

I didnt think the Lib Dems still existed, except in the recesses of student union bars.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Corbyn lost because he knew he was elected mainly by people who are pro-Brexit, and so he didn't campaign with any force or conviction.

It's a bit hard to campaign for remain with any conviction if you've been anti-EU most of your political career.

The irony is, if Corbyn had done a Harold Wilson and let his party campaign for any side they pleased, Corbyn, as a closet BREXIT supporter, would have been in a prime position to reach out to those working class areas that heavily backed out.

Whatever about Labour, I don't think it can be argued (from a Remain perspective anyhow) that the Tories have done anything other than feth the country.

I hope there are a lot of regretful Tory Remainers out there who will be reconsidering their political allegiance in future.

 Mr. Burning wrote:

 Frozocrone wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
There'll be a lot of thrashing about these next few weeks. We had the denial stage on Friday and Saturday, now we've got the anger stage to go through. But once things calm down, realpolitik will kick in, and you'll start to see and hear better discussions between Britain and the rest of the EU.

As for Labour, it's hilarious to see a bunch of Blairites, who started the rot years ago, blaming Corbyn for losing the referendum...

Lib Dems already with the Bargaining stage (vote us in and we'll stay in EU)

People had a right to celebrate/feel upset regarding the vote, now we (both Leave and Remain) have to pull together and try and figure out the best way forward.

Labour are still a party that craves power and its members have a nagging fear of inferiority when comparing their past endeavours. The Blairites are just a small part of that malaise (they are the loudest though, and conversely, get talked about all the more).

I didnt think the Lib Dems still existed, except in the recesses of student union bars.

Yeah, the weasel words of the Lib Dems did make we laugh. Talk about a blatant attempt to gain support at any price.

Oh, and as I've said throughout the campaign - the focus on political personalities is idiotic. This is a referendum, and voters knew they weren't voting for Corbyn or labour or any of that. They were voting on this one issue and they themselves got to choose rather than a representative. In that situation people don't care what party leaders etc say. They vote with what they believe.

This misunderstanding has been widespread in the UK. If they'd thought to ask us next door in Ireland we could have told them that referenda usually play out that way.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:


How is that a blow? It's pretty obvious that is the case. Its quite possible that the UK leaves the EU on the Monday and an independent Scotland joins it on the Tuesday.

It's a blow because Scotland will have been hoping that as part of a member state already it can join without going through the leave then rejoin route. All the existing member states have to vote to accept Scotland and that may place extra demands on that aren't currently in the EU/UK deal. There may be even some that don't want the extra burden at the current time as Scotland's economy is smaller than the UK as whole ($233 billion vs $3 trillion) and it may shrink because of the close ties with England if we then go into a recession. A lot of this is also funded by North Sea oil as well which is heavily subsidised by the UK government as a whole (there is literally no tax on these operations). This is feasible because the UK is such a large economy, but the Scottish parliament may not be able to sustain this level of subsidy. At the price of oil and the drying up of the north sea wells that could then lead to a separate recession in Scotland as the economy rebalances. Other EU countries may not think this is a viable risk to take at a time when the world economy could be in turmoil because of England leaving the EU.