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 Ouze wrote:

 sebster wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 Ouze wrote:
By my rough math, as things lay now, I think Trump is going to win with 293 EV.

I did not see this coming.

You, me both.

Maybe people could just start fething listening to me? Remember 2012, when I said Obama was locked in because he was really safe in enough states to hit 270 EV? And this time around I said Trump was a real chance because he was close enough in enough states, that if he beats his polls by 2 points he can reach 270?

For me I guess it was an optimism bias.

Heh, I see what you did there.

There is a book called The Keys to the White House, which I came across while I was researching this election. It claims that election results are dictated primarily by the performance of the party already controlling the White House. I wasn't sure if the system was reliable, or if it would apply this time, but it actually seems to have been incredibly accurate in gauging the voter's mood.

 Spinner wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 Spinner wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 sebster wrote:

 SickSix wrote:
No it was more of 'Let's hate straight white males, Christians and people that believe in the Constitution, and border integrity'.

If anyone is wondering how Donald Trump won an election, here it is folks. A deliberate decision on the part of a large number of Americans to start believing ridiculous nonsense, such as the above.

Or Hillary Clinton is an awful candidate.

Do you really believe she's worse than Donald Trump? I know you don't like her, but do you really, honestly believe she'd be less prepared to lead the nation in a positive direction?

Yes.

So why did you vote Johnson?

Because she isn't and whembly is just posturing or lying about voting for johnson to save face

 thekingofkings wrote:
I dont think trump is going to win this one, but he will make it closer than is comfortable for the aftermath. There is alot of hatred between left and right, it will be hard to reconcile.

If current projections are to be believed, Hilary can't win unless she takes Wisconsin or MIchigan, both of those states are almost pretty much sewn up by Trump. That gives him exactly 270.

I wonder, if Trump wins, how soon it will be before he makes good on his promise to jail Clinton.

 Spinner wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 Spinner wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 sebster wrote:

 SickSix wrote:
No it was more of 'Let's hate straight white males, Christians and people that believe in the Constitution, and border integrity'.

If anyone is wondering how Donald Trump won an election, here it is folks. A deliberate decision on the part of a large number of Americans to start believing ridiculous nonsense, such as the above.

Or Hillary Clinton is an awful candidate.

Do you really believe she's worse than Donald Trump? I know you don't like her, but do you really, honestly believe she'd be less prepared to lead the nation in a positive direction?

Yes.

So why did you vote Johnson?

Can't I dislike 'em both?

 SickSix wrote:
So how many intolerant celebrities actually move out of the country if Trump wins?

Trump supporter calling others intolerant... see this is why Trump presidency wouldn't be so bad. Sure we miss out on the massive tantrum of his loss but we get a shower of little gems like this. If I ever get tired of laughing at people's self-inflicted misfortune it has a good chance of being during a Trump presidency.

 sebster wrote:

 SickSix wrote:
No it was more of 'Let's hate straight white males, Christians and people that believe in the Constitution, and border integrity'.

If anyone is wondering how Donald Trump won an election, here it is folks. A deliberate decision on the part of a large number of Americans to start believing ridiculous nonsense, such as the above.

That's certainly a big part of it. A wild disregard and gross misunderstanding of both the issues facing and motivations driving rural and white working-class voters probably didn't help the Democrats either though. Not that Donald Trump understands those issues at all, whatsoever, but I think he was able to tap into and harness their motivations on some level.

Relapse wrote:
I wonder, if Trump wins, how soon it will be before he makes good on his promise to jail Clinton.

Work with Congress to setup a Special Prosecutor.

 thekingofkings wrote:
I dont think trump is going to win this one...

He needs 16 more electors. Arizona gives him 11. Alaska has 3. All he needs is New Hampshire's 4 to win and it looks likely Trump will take it.

 hotsauceman1 wrote:
You can't exactly take rights away.

How's so? UK is planning to do just that with removal of human rights act. Okay so they replace it with their own but why take it away if you don't plan on weakening it...Adding new rights doesn't need removing old one. It's taking away that requires.

Relapse wrote:
I wonder, if Trump wins, how soon it will be before he makes good on his promise to jail Clinton.

He won't, there'd be mass protests & rioting over dictator-level actions like that.

 Ustrello wrote:

 Spinner wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 Spinner wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 sebster wrote:

 SickSix wrote:
No it was more of 'Let's hate straight white males, Christians and people that believe in the Constitution, and border integrity'.

If anyone is wondering how Donald Trump won an election, here it is folks. A deliberate decision on the part of a large number of Americans to start believing ridiculous nonsense, such as the above.

Or Hillary Clinton is an awful candidate.

Do you really believe she's worse than Donald Trump? I know you don't like her, but do you really, honestly believe she'd be less prepared to lead the nation in a positive direction?

Yes.

So why did you vote Johnson?

Because she isn't and whembly is just posturing or lying about voting for johnson to save face

Objection!

Speculation!

 whembly wrote:

 Ustrello wrote:

 Spinner wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 Spinner wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 sebster wrote:

 SickSix wrote:
No it was more of 'Let's hate straight white males, Christians and people that believe in the Constitution, and border integrity'.

If anyone is wondering how Donald Trump won an election, here it is folks. A deliberate decision on the part of a large number of Americans to start believing ridiculous nonsense, such as the above.

Or Hillary Clinton is an awful candidate.

Do you really believe she's worse than Donald Trump? I know you don't like her, but do you really, honestly believe she'd be less prepared to lead the nation in a positive direction?

Yes.

So why did you vote Johnson?

Because she isn't and whembly is just posturing or lying about voting for johnson to save face

Objection!

Speculation!

Objection, its the truth

I don't think you know what that word means...

Trump now up 20k votes in PA, 91% reporting.

http://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ENR_NEW

 NinthMusketeer wrote:

Relapse wrote:
I wonder, if Trump wins, how soon it will be before he makes good on his promise to jail Clinton.

He won't, there'd be mass protests & rioting over dictator-level actions like that.

On the one hand, Trump has a long and storied history of making exaggerated threats that he never follows through on. On the other hand, he's never been President...

 NinthMusketeer wrote:

 SickSix wrote:
So how many intolerant celebrities actually move out of the country if Trump wins?

Trump supporter calling others intolerant... see this is why Trump presidency wouldn't be so bad. Sure we miss out on the massive tantrum of his loss but we get a shower of little gems like this. If I ever get tired of laughing at people's self-inflicted misfortune it has a good chance of being during a Trump presidency.

I voted for Darrell Castle because the Constitution Party lines up about 90% with my beliefs.

I am just relishing the Liberal meltdown of a Trump win. I didn't vote for Trump because I don't really trust him and Mike Pence is just fething awful.

But Hillary is nearly the devil incarnate.

 whembly wrote:

Trump now up 20k votes in PA, 91% reporting.

http://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ENR_NEW

Didn't see that coming, did we? Nope. We most certainly did not. (Didn't see Wisconsin, either.)

Edit: Nevermind.

 NinthMusketeer wrote:

Relapse wrote:
I wonder, if Trump wins, how soon it will be before he makes good on his promise to jail Clinton.

He won't, there'd be mass protests & rioting over dictator-level actions like that.

Just being sarcastic, although, I would laugh to see Clinton in an orange jumpsuit and being hustled into a paddy wagon by Trump.

 Breotan wrote:

 whembly wrote:

Trump now up 20k votes in PA, 91% reporting.

http://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ENR_NEW

Didn't see that coming, did we? Nope. We most certainly did not. (Didn't see Wisconsin, either.)

Donald fething Trump wins PA!?!?!?!

Jesus wept... I mean seriously?


Maybe Nate Cohn is right:

Nate CohnVerified account
‏@Nate_Cohn
How to think about this election: white working class voters just decided to vote like a minority group. They're >40% of the electorate.

 whembly wrote:
1) The Working Class Whites is the largest voting bloc in the US.

It's swung this election. But that doesn't mean it is the only determinant of elections.

2) It appears Barack Obama was an electoral aberration.

No, it really doesn't. Clinton will likely win the popular vote, meaning Democrats have won 5 of the last 6 popular votes. It's hard to call Democratic wins an aberration in that context.

A Republican win by the least Republican candidate in living memory probably says a lot about where Republican strategy should go from here, though. And a lot of that will play out in how Republicans work or don't work with Trump.

3) Polling companies are going out of business (minus Nate Silver 538 as he was fething right all along).

The various models that appeared in the wake of Silver's successes in 2008 and 2012 have been shown to be really lacking, particularly in failing to account for a correlation between states. Polling companies have shown to be about the same as always, pretty pointless singly, fairly okay when aggregated.

 Vaktathi wrote:

 cuda1179 wrote:

 Peregrine wrote:

 sourclams wrote:
I would balance that against likelihood of more foreign wars under a Trump presidency at about a hundredth of what it would be under Hillary. Hillary is demonstrably hawkish.

How many times do I need to post this quote in this thread?

ISIS is making a tremendous amount of money because of the oil that they took away, they have some in Syria, they have some in Iraq, I would bomb the gak out of them.
I would just bomb those suckers, and that's right, I'd blow up the pipes, I'd blow up the refineries, I'd blow up ever single inch, there would be nothing left.
And you know what, you'll get Exxon to come in there, and in two months, you ever see these guys? How good they are, the great oil companies, they'll rebuild it brand new... And I'll take the oil.

But somehow it's Clinton that's the hawk, not the guy running on a platform of "bomb the out of them". Unbelievable.

Well, on one hand we have the guy that's talking about bombing the gak out of terrorist organization,

that arose from a failed interventionist Republican President's invasion.

compared to the woman that spent years talking about Iraq's WMD's,

on the assumption they'd be used by terrorist organizations on a theory pushed by a Republican administration

.

Hate to brake it to you, but Hillary was talking about Iraq's WMD's YEARS before Bush took office. Between 1994 and 2000 she publicly talked about those WMD's 24 times. I believe that was under a Democratic Administration.

Say it! PRESIDENT TRUMP. SAY IT!

 sourclams wrote:

 Peregrine wrote:

 d-usa wrote:
4 (or 8) years of Trump are bad enough. But the potential damage a Trump-filled SCOTUS can do is much more terrifying for me.

If you're a religious person now seems to be the time to start praying for the continued health of the left-leaning justices.

I would balance that against likelihood of more foreign wars under a Trump presidency at about a hundredth of what it would be under Hillary. Hillary is demonstrably hawkish.

Hah. If one of the two is going to get USA into bigger wars it's Donald "why haven't we alredy used nukes" Trump.

Good job. You support guy who is the most likely person in the planet ATM to start a nuclear war.

 sebster wrote:

3) Polling companies are going out of business (minus Nate Silver 538 as he was fething right all along).

The various models that appeared in the wake of Silver's successes in 2008 and 2012 have been shown to be really lacking, particularly in failing to account for a correlation between states. Polling companies have shown to be about the same as always, pretty pointless singly, fairly okay when aggregated.

The polls for Brexit also put the Remainders ahead by a comfortable margin, but apparently old people, and people who have a beef about immigration don't get polled very well.

 Breotan wrote:
Say it! PRESIDENT TRUMP. SAY IT!

PRESIDENT DRUMPF!

Sorry B... I still fething hate that dumpster fire.

 whembly wrote:
Aw... shucks seb.

Me so sowwy.

2014 Democrats take the senate, you heard it here first

*sighs*

So, while this is perhaps a bit over-optimistic, I think this is worth putting here, [ur'=http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/calm-down-we%E2%80%99ll-be-fine-no-matter-who-wins/ar-AAjUZ62]mostly for its bit about the media[/url]. Remember that humans have a mental quirk that gives us an attraction to hearing that the world is going to hell. It still hasn't.

 SickSix wrote:

 NinthMusketeer wrote:

 SickSix wrote:
So how many intolerant celebrities actually move out of the country if Trump wins?

Trump supporter calling others intolerant... see this is why Trump presidency wouldn't be so bad. Sure we miss out on the massive tantrum of his loss but we get a shower of little gems like this. If I ever get tired of laughing at people's self-inflicted misfortune it has a good chance of being during a Trump presidency.

I voted for Darrell Castle because the Constitution Party lines up about 90% with my beliefs.

I am just relishing the Liberal meltdown of a Trump win. I didn't vote for Trump because I don't really trust him and Mike Pence is just fething awful.

But Hillary is nearly the devil incarnate.

Sure we miss out on the massive tantrum of his loss but we get a shower of little gems like this.

But Hillary is nearly the devil incarnate.

See what I mean? Such blatant disregard for reality is hilarious, doubly so because the people who it hurts most in the end are those who believe it.