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 jasper76 wrote:
The talking heads

Who?

 Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:

 jasper76 wrote:
The talking heads

Who?

Probably conservative commentators, certainly not this guy: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/le-pen-is-in-a-much-deeper-hole-than-trump-ever-was/

 jasper76 wrote:
The talking heads seem convinced Le Pen is going to win, and use her election to either force significant change in France's relationship with the EU, or else Frexit. And if France Frexits, Italy may well be next in line, and then the house of cards may very well collapse.

Not sure how much of this is true or just hot air, but may you live in interesting times. It's kind of unsettling to see the EU experiment unraveling in such a short period of time, and I can't help but think this French election will have dramatic implications for the future of Europe at large.

It certainly seems to me that the EU is being put on notice that it must make major reforms or die. I wonder if the institution is even capable of change, or if there is too much inertia and the bureaucracy is too entrenched.

I very much doubt that.

Le Pen has been banging on that 'Frexit' drum for quite some time, and still can't seem to reach the 40% range in the polls.

I recently saw a poll (can't find it at the moment) quite some time ago that a large majority French, by and large, want to stay in the EU. I can't imagine those voters going with Le Pen...

Get used to saying President Macron. Another outsider... eh?

 jasper76 wrote:
The talking heads seem convinced Le Pen is going to win, and use her election to either force significant change in France's relationship with the EU, or else Frexit. And if France Frexits, Italy may well be next in line, and then the house of cards may very well collapse.

Not sure how much of this is true or just hot air, but may you live in interesting times. It's kind of unsettling to see the EU experiment unraveling in such a short period of time, and I can't help but think this French election will have dramatic implications for the future of Europe at large.

It certainly seems to me that the EU is being put on notice that it must make major reforms or die. I wonder if the institution is even capable of change, or if there is too much inertia and the bureaucracy is too entrenched.

So if Le Pin wins, will Europe be moving back to a NAFTA type free trade system (probably the best for them). If so, will that mean a recession for Belgium with lots of bureaucratic unemployment?

 whembly wrote:

 jasper76 wrote:
The talking heads seem convinced Le Pen is going to win, and use her election to either force significant change in France's relationship with the EU, or else Frexit. And if France Frexits, Italy may well be next in line, and then the house of cards may very well collapse.

Not sure how much of this is true or just hot air, but may you live in interesting times. It's kind of unsettling to see the EU experiment unraveling in such a short period of time, and I can't help but think this French election will have dramatic implications for the future of Europe at large.

It certainly seems to me that the EU is being put on notice that it must make major reforms or die. I wonder if the institution is even capable of change, or if there is too much inertia and the bureaucracy is too entrenched.

I very much doubt that.

Le Pen has been banging on that 'Frexit' drum for quite some time, and still can't seem to reach the 40% range in the polls.

I recently saw a poll (can't find it at the moment) quite some time ago that a large majority French, by and large, want to stay in the EU. I can't imagine those voters going with Le Pen...

Get used to saying President Macron. Another outsider... eh?

If the US election taught us anything, it's that polls cannot be trusted...not even a little bit. I'm not sure that the polling industry has proven that it has made sufficient adjustments to its techniques to be trusted.

Which is not to say I think Le Pen will win, I have no idea. But the sway of history is moving towards nationalism, isolationism, and closed borders. The extent to which France is caught up with or immune from this motion I guess waits to be seen.

 Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:

 jasper76 wrote:
The talking heads

Who?

You don't know who David Byrne is? Barbarian!


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Get used to saying President Macron. Another outsider... eh?

President Macaroni?

 jasper76 wrote:

 whembly wrote:

 jasper76 wrote:
The talking heads seem convinced Le Pen is going to win, and use her election to either force significant change in France's relationship with the EU, or else Frexit. And if France Frexits, Italy may well be next in line, and then the house of cards may very well collapse.

Not sure how much of this is true or just hot air, but may you live in interesting times. It's kind of unsettling to see the EU experiment unraveling in such a short period of time, and I can't help but think this French election will have dramatic implications for the future of Europe at large.

It certainly seems to me that the EU is being put on notice that it must make major reforms or die. I wonder if the institution is even capable of change, or if there is too much inertia and the bureaucracy is too entrenched.

I very much doubt that.

Le Pen has been banging on that 'Frexit' drum for quite some time, and still can't seem to reach the 40% range in the polls.

I recently saw a poll (can't find it at the moment) quite some time ago that a large majority French, by and large, want to stay in the EU. I can't imagine those voters going with Le Pen...

Get used to saying President Macron. Another outsider... eh?

If the US election taught us anything, it's that polls cannot be trusted...not even a little bit. I'm not sure that the polling industry has proven that it has made sufficient adjustments to its techniques to be trusted.

US polling industries are nothing like those across the Atlantic.

Traditionally, they're much more solid than the one we see here in the states.

Which is not to say I think Le Pen will win, I have no idea. But the sway of history is moving towards nationalism, isolationism, and closed borders. The extent to which France is caught up with or immune from this motion I guess waits to be seen.

True... but, the beauty to the French's 'Two Rounds' for their election can mitigate the populist rise we've been seeing elsewhere... in that, the losing coalitions can band together and play the 'not votes' in the 2nd round. That's actually what typically happens there...






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 Frazzled wrote:

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Get used to saying President Macron. Another outsider... eh?

President Macaroni?

I'm so steeling that!

 whembly wrote:
Another outsider... eh?

Just to put things into perspective: another outsider… that was part of the previous government .
His elections means a LOT for the Socialist party, but it doesn't mean you should expect a lot of change in the way France is governed. This is very different from a Donald “Who knew healthcare was complex?” Trump.

 Frazzled wrote:
You don't know who David Byrne is? Barbarian!

I don't know what the expression talking head means. And I also don't know who David Byrne is. But, you see, as you are American and I am French, I laugh at the very suggestion that you could be in any way more civilized or sophisticated than I am . See, you have this reputation for being uncouth and crude, while we…

C'est vous qui n'êtes qu'un barbare, un cowboy mal décrotté tout juste descendu de son cheval, très cher.
/

 kronk wrote:
Frexit is fun to say. It's like I'm swearing but not getting in trouble for it.

"What is wrong with the EU?" "Dunno. Frexit."

Sounds like something you'd order at DQ. "Give me a large Frexit Blizzard."

Back OT, the markets certainly liked the election result.

 Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:

 whembly wrote:
Another outsider... eh?

Just to put things into perspective: another outsider… that was part of the previous government .

yeah... that supports my read of this.

He seems like the "status quo" pick and should win easily.

I'm emphasizing 'should' here because, the only way Le Pen win's, imo, is if there's enough frustration with the status quo.

I'm not convinced we're seeing that now... right Hybrid?


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 BigWaaagh wrote:

 kronk wrote:
Frexit is fun to say. It's like I'm swearing but not getting in trouble for it.

"What is wrong with the EU?" "Dunno. Frexit."

Sounds like something you'd order at DQ. "Give me a large Frexit Blizzard."

aka, Frozen Franzia:

 Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:

 whembly wrote:
Another outsider... eh?

Just to put things into perspective: another outsider… that was part of the previous government .
His elections means a LOT for the Socialist party, but it doesn't mean you should expect a lot of change in the way France is governed. This is very different from a Donald “Who knew healthcare was complex?” Trump.

 Frazzled wrote:
You don't know who David Byrne is? Barbarian!

I don't know what the expression talking head means. And I also don't know who David Byrne is. But, you see, as you are American and I am French, I laugh at the very suggestion that you could be in any way more civilized or sophisticated than I am . See, you have this reputation for being uncouth and crude, while we…

C'est vous qui n'êtes qu'un barbare, un cowboy mal décrotté tout juste descendu de son cheval, très cher.
/

Sorry but the best of France bailed for New Orleans-all your best thieves, rascals, swindlers, and supporters of Bonaparte left to be assimilated by the Borg, er the US. Next you'll be telling me your Eiffel Tower copy is better than the Vegas original. Pfft!

I will not be surprised by a Le Pen win.

 whembly wrote:
I'm not convinced we're seeing that now... right Hybrid?

I don't think we will either.

 Frazzled wrote:
Next you'll be telling me your Eiffel Tower copy is better than the Vegas original. Pfft!

Meh, we made your Statue of Liberty, and really given how much your current president is smearing gak all over every idea in “The New Colossus” you should give it back to us .

 Easy E wrote:
I will not be surprised by a Le Pen win.

Impossible, she cannot win ths time, but in 5 years with marion, it will be another story, next president will be Macarony, no surprise, french like money they will be serve.............Poor country, so sad. So many people choosed him because he is young or handsome...........Crying!!!

Macron is still a part of the establishment, however much he pretends otherwise. I'll be very disappointed if he wins...which it looks like he will.

 Future War Cultist wrote:
Macron is still a part of the establishment, however much he pretends otherwise. I'll be very disappointed if he wins...which it looks like he will.

Le Pen isn't exactly outside of the system either. Are you looking for Poutou or Arthaud?

 CATACHANTV wrote:

 Easy E wrote:
I will not be surprised by a Le Pen win.

Impossible

I have heard that too many times lately in politics to believe anything is impossible.

 Easy E wrote:

 CATACHANTV wrote:

 Easy E wrote:
I will not be surprised by a Le Pen win.

Impossible

I have heard that too many times lately in politics to believe anything is impossible.

Yep. Pundits "in the know" were quite literally laughing their asses off when presented with even the suggestion that Trump could possibily win the election. Surprise, surprise.

I don't know if Le Pen will win, I have no idea. But I won't just accept these predictions of impossibility. I just gone done watching that movie.

 jasper76 wrote:

 Easy E wrote:

 CATACHANTV wrote:

 Easy E wrote:
I will not be surprised by a Le Pen win.

Impossible

I have heard that too many times lately in politics to believe anything is impossible.

Yep. Pundits "in the know" were quite literally laughing their asses off when presented with even the suggestion that Trump could possibily win the election. Surprise, surprise.

I don't know if Le Pen will win, I have no idea. But I won't just accept these predictions of impossibility. I just gone done watching that movie.

Everything about this election is different than what we've seen here in the states though...

In the first round, the age group of 18-34 year olds broke for Le Pen. The 35+ year olds overwhelmingly broke for the 'not Le Pen' candidates.

I guess the question would be, which age demographics votes?

 whembly wrote:

 jasper76 wrote:

 Easy E wrote:

 CATACHANTV wrote:

 Easy E wrote:
I will not be surprised by a Le Pen win.

Impossible

I have heard that too many times lately in politics to believe anything is impossible.

Yep. Pundits "in the know" were quite literally laughing their asses off when presented with even the suggestion that Trump could possibily win the election. Surprise, surprise.

I don't know if Le Pen will win, I have no idea. But I won't just accept these predictions of impossibility. I just gone done watching that movie.

Everything about this election is different than what we've seen here in the states though...

In the first round, the age group of 18-34 year olds broke for Le Pen. The 35+ year olds overwhelmingly broke for the 'not Le Pen' candidates.

I guess the question would be, which age demographics votes?

Well given youth and young unemployment is high across Europe.
The fact they look at someone different and are thinking that that shaking up the whole political pot is a good idea.

I can understand. They want someone to break the status quo and do somthibf to help them...

 whembly wrote:

 jasper76 wrote:

 Easy E wrote:

 CATACHANTV wrote:

 Easy E wrote:
I will not be surprised by a Le Pen win.

Impossible

I have heard that too many times lately in politics to believe anything is impossible.

Yep. Pundits "in the know" were quite literally laughing their asses off when presented with even the suggestion that Trump could possibily win the election. Surprise, surprise.

I don't know if Le Pen will win, I have no idea. But I won't just accept these predictions of impossibility. I just gone done watching that movie.

Everything about this election is different than what we've seen here in the states though...

And so much about the last US election was different than anything we'd seen before in previous US elections.

Watch out so you don't end up like these bozos:

I think way too many people here are forgetting that the actual polls for recent elections (brexit, the us pres) were actually quite accurate. The polling for both were within 2 percentage points, not even outside the margin of error. It was the pundits reading the polls who were making the "not going to happen" statements. Part of it was they couldn't believe what their own data was telling them because it ran counter to conventiaonal wisdom. I.e. People just couldn't be that stupid/gullible. Their data said otherwise. They should have listened to it and reported it accurately.

This is completely different. Le Pen is down by 26 points on average in a head to head. If we added up the point spread on polls vs. vote in the Brexit vote and the US election together, she would still be down by 20 points. She has two weeks to make that up. Unless ISIS has some sort of master plan up its sleeve to dramatically change things (and it's going to take more than the Charlie Hubdou/random nut with a gun or a bomb situation), I don't see how she does it.

Added to that, since the Trump election when he took power and people began realizing ,"hey, wait a minute, this is empty crazy talk", I don't know of a single right wing faction that has actually won an election. Trump isn't a sign of things to come, but a warning of what not to do. He is a weight on Le Pen's shoulders, not an asset.

Considering the situation is an outcome of the exact same problem I don't think expecting a similar result is unwarranted. The wealthy of the first world are doing exceedingly well while the majority suffers for it. It surprised me how little this is brought up considering how widespread the impact is. How often is the sentiment that 'everything sucks' spoken of? Remember how at the end of 2014 we were talking about how much it sucked? And 2015? And 2016? There's a basic connection there with the average person having to work harder to earn less than they used to, it's a trend that's unsustainable and we are really starting to see what happens as a result.

 NinthMusketeer wrote:
Considering the situation is an outcome of the exact same problem I don't think expecting a similar result is unwarranted. The wealthy of the first world are doing exceedingly well while the majority suffers for it. It surprised me how little this is brought up considering how widespread the impact is. How often is the sentiment that 'everything sucks' spoken of? Remember how at the end of 2014 we were talking about how much it sucked? And 2015? And 2016? There's a basic connection there with the average person having to work harder to earn less than they used to, it's a trend that's unsustainable and we are really starting to see what happens as a result.

Your assumption of "a similar result" is unfounded. See above. "A similar result" would mean she loses by 24 points, not 26. Granted, she has a bit of time to make it up, but it would take an act of Todd (Todd being whatever particular being you ascribe faith to, maybe Bealzeeub, maybe Azathoth, maybe Jaweh, maybe just Todd, the guy in the cubicle next door. Though he is probably more interested in his Milky Way he is munching on right now to care).

Ah yes, naysayers once again confusing polls and pundits. The US presidential election was well within most polls margin. In Georgia, they continue to be accurate as they are in the first round of French elections. Polling, like anything, is an imperfect tool, but the outright rejection is grossly misplaced. Especially if you don't get how polls and pundits are two different things entirely.

 jmurph wrote:
Ah yes, naysayers once again confusing polls and pundits. The US presidential election was well within most polls margin. In Georgia, they continue to be accurate as they are in the first round of French elections. Polling, like anything, is an imperfect tool, but the outright rejection is grossly misplaced. Especially if you don't get how polls and pundits are two different things entirely.

I agree, and while I do think people like Silver do great work, he does sort of dip his toe into punditry too, often much to his ridicule. It does what he does no service or help to what he really does and just feeds the "MSM are just stooges to the powers that be" narrative that is way too appealing to online feed groups. Just look at the numbers, read the numbers and explain the numbers. No need for the commentary, thank you very much.

It's sort of like people who can look at temperature variables and means over years and then walk outside and feel the bite of the wind and say, "yeah, global warming, my ass." It's just numbers folks, they don't lie like humans do.

EDIT: nevermind, I misread something.

 Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:

 Blackie wrote:
Obama was one of the worst american presidents, considering how his politics affected europe, africa and middle eastern countries. If he wasn't half black very few people would have praised him.

You are the guy that wrote something akin to “Those savages (sic) don't belong to a lab, except maybe as test subjects” for anyone who was educated in a third world country. Therefore, your opinion is irrelevant .

I sure hope he didn't say anything like that. I've heard the whole racist, xenophobic, islamaphobic, misogynistic crap before. I'd just like a little more proof to the statements and the context.

As far as the U.S. elections i didn't vote. Can a person not be disgusted with the main candidates?

On the subject of obama didn't he do a lot of drone strikes and ya know help make ISIS come around. It's like "Oh cool we finally killed Bin Laden (the dying leader of a dying terrorist group) now let's do something so the middle east gets its terrorism back". Electric Boogalo 2 or "How the Middle East got its terrorism back".

 jasper76 wrote:
EDIT: nevermind, I misread something.

I'm not sure what you misread, but I'm glad you are now thinking about what you are posting online. More people need to do that. Huzzah to you, good sir!

 flamingkillamajig wrote:
I sure hope he didn't say anything like that. I've heard the whole racist, xenophobic, islamaphobic, misogynistic crap before. I'd just like a little more proof to the statements and the context.

He did, and the Dakka moderation crew rolled a natural 100 which means they gave him a cookie for it. The post is still here:
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/4200/614584.page#9271222


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 Gordon Shumway wrote:
Added to that, since the Trump election when he took power and people began realizing ,"hey, wait a minute, this is empty crazy talk"

Disagree, people are way dumber than what you give them credit for!