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I'm confused... so, Article 50 isn't happening and no Brexit of any form is happening?

Or is it that negotiating a "soft landing" isn't likely to happen and that the Brexit date is still happening???

I see one of Irish Taliban got himself suspended from the commons for 30 days for acidently taking a 50k bung.
His apology was a cringeworthy self justification of what he did.

In brexit news government spiv sir somthing somthing states that in case of no deal we are prepared as we have had years to plan for somthing like this but gave no details.

Can anyone say martial law/state of emergency this is turning into a full blown right wing coup. Depending on which law they subvert to do it we could get fun stuff like parliament being dissolved, rationing, curfews and the right to protest being stopped.

The most exciting version also has the rule of law being suspended and the police disbanded or reformed into a non judicial militia the country being divided up into personal fiefdoms with a unelected leader with unlimited power. Also all cat A,B prisoners are liquidated and some cat c any subversive or opposition are also to be rounded up and liquidated.

There's more but you get the idea and any one who thinks I am exaggerating or.whatever please bear in mind the authoritarian scum bags that make up the Tory Party such as May, Moggy, Rabbid,IDS and Pritti vacant. To these right wing nut jobs this is a wet dream come true.

I believe you exaggerate for effect, but there is a fundamental strand of truth in your arguments.

For many rich Brexiteers, the key problem with the EU is the relentless bearing down on off-shore tax havens.

 whembly wrote:
I'm confused... so, Article 50 isn't happening and no Brexit of any form is happening?

Or is it that negotiating a "soft landing" isn't likely to happen and that the Brexit date is still happening???

Article 50 has happened. Brexit is due to go ahead, deal or no deal, on March 29, 2019.

Negotiating a "soft landing" is indeed looking difficult. The UK refuses to deal with the Northern Irish border despite being asked for about 8 months now to either accept the EU's solution or come up with one itself. The solutions they have come up with either violate the conditions of the EU single market and customs union (whole UK backstop without agreeing to the conditions of the CU and SM and accepting 4 freedoms, known in the EU as "cakeism" or "cherry picking") or rely on magical future technology, or in the worst cases, pretending that the WTO does not exist.

So the British political and media classes have decided to sort of ignore Ireland, and have their own internal debate about what flavour cake they would like. They recently voted to remain part of a medicines agency for example that requires membership of the single market and customs union, while in the same evening voting to stay out of the customs union in all scenarios. No media outlet felt this needed to be discussed and of course no politicians commented on how ludicrous the whole thing was.

About a week ago the UK published a detailed white paper on what they want from their future relationship with the EU (which they do not get to discuss before the Irish issue is sorted), which they then rendered invalid in parliament before the EU had even had time to respond.

So the chance of a "No Deal" exit is increasing mostly due to denial of reality and incompetence on the British side. It is still to be hoped that it will be avoided, but the EU is stepping up preparations (hiring more customs officials etc) in any case.

I hope that if it comes down to it, the process could be extended if need be. The problem is we would need to negotiate a way to lock the UK out of the EU elections and deny them any right to have input into how the budget is spent, and somehow deal with their budget contribution. It would be politically and legally pretty fraught and difficult and the EU has good reasons not to allow the UK a say in those processes, especially given they have acted in bad faith at several points during this process so far.

SeanDrake wrote:
In brexit news government spiv sir somthing somthing states that in case of no deal we are prepared as we have had years to plan for somthing like this but gave no details.

Of course they didn't they don't have a plan it's just bluster, that would have required foresight which would have meant people might have guessed this was there plan all along.
Besides when did evidence ever matter to brexiters so they will probably get away with it.
everyone is just stockpiling but that would last an extra two weeks, a month?.
When it all comes down they will just blame the EU. Remember when davis basically begged the EU not to punish us, and i'm pretty sure i just heard andrea leadsom on C4 news
baisically say the EU needs to stop negotiating so hard and meet us half way.
What a joke, how did anyone think these people could get us ANYTHING. Even a 10X20 EU flag at this point looks beyond there abilities.


I don't think this has been mentioned yet.
https://www.thelocal.fr/20180505/britain-backs-french-plan-for-european-defence-force[url]
I cant find who will actually control or run it yet but it's separate from the EU.


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Oh and the DWP just got caught lying....again.
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2018/07/19/the-dwp-was-just-caught-red-handed-fiddling-benefit-sanctions-figures/[url]

The chickens are really coming home to roost now. I have read recently they may be the third biggest party in terms of
members in the UK, after labour (600,000 odd) and the SNP (130,000 odd)

The country is falling apart they need an escape route and one that breaks the bank to stop corbyn reversing everything
they have spent the last 8 years doing. Oh hello no deal brexit, whats that a good portion of the country will just accept
it? oh ok, and most tory voters would cut there legs of before voting corbyn? please do go on.....

 Da Boss wrote:

 whembly wrote:
I'm confused... so, Article 50 isn't happening and no Brexit of any form is happening?

Or is it that negotiating a "soft landing" isn't likely to happen and that the Brexit date is still happening???

Article 50 has happened. Brexit is due to go ahead, deal or no deal, on March 29, 2019.

Negotiating a "soft landing" is indeed looking difficult. The UK refuses to deal with the Northern Irish border despite being asked for about 8 months now to either accept the EU's solution or come up with one itself. The solutions they have come up with either violate the conditions of the EU single market and customs union (whole UK backstop without agreeing to the conditions of the CU and SM and accepting 4 freedoms, known in the EU as "cakeism" or "cherry picking") or rely on magical future technology, or in the worst cases, pretending that the WTO does not exist.

So the British political and media classes have decided to sort of ignore Ireland, and have their own internal debate about what flavour cake they would like. They recently voted to remain part of a medicines agency for example that requires membership of the single market and customs union, while in the same evening voting to stay out of the customs union in all scenarios. No media outlet felt this needed to be discussed and of course no politicians commented on how ludicrous the whole thing was.

About a week ago the UK published a detailed white paper on what they want from their future relationship with the EU (which they do not get to discuss before the Irish issue is sorted), which they then rendered invalid in parliament before the EU had even had time to respond.

So the chance of a "No Deal" exit is increasing mostly due to denial of reality and incompetence on the British side. It is still to be hoped that it will be avoided, but the EU is stepping up preparations (hiring more customs officials etc) in any case.

I hope that if it comes down to it, the process could be extended if need be. The problem is we would need to negotiate a way to lock the UK out of the EU elections and deny them any right to have input into how the budget is spent, and somehow deal with their budget contribution. It would be politically and legally pretty fraught and difficult and the EU has good reasons not to allow the UK a say in those processes, especially given they have acted in bad faith at several points during this process so far.

Thanks for bringing me up to speed.

So in other words:


If it ends up being a hard brexit with all the chaos, my sincere hope is for the US to set up favorable agreements with ya'll to soften the blow.... 'cuz... yikes, I feel for ya'll.

Furthermore, in the healthcare industry (where I work), I hope the government is relaxing regulations to ensure medications can be purchased outside of UK/EU. When hurricane Maria knocked around Puerto Rico, the US' supply of sterile fluids was compromised, as most US sterile fluids were made in PR (major tax haven). Where we once were able to purchase premixed fluids... for several months, the IV compounding staff had to make much of the typical premixed fluids by hand due to severe shortages.

That's just in the healthcare industry... I can only imagine some of the shortages ya'll may feel as you import quite a bit into your country.

whembly wrote:If it ends up being a hard brexit with all the chaos, my sincere hope is for the US to set up favorable agreements with ya'll to soften the blow.... 'cuz... yikes, I feel for ya'll.

That probably won't happen. While Trump thinks Brexit is totally a great idea (without any supporting arguments), he (or people working for his government) have also said things along the lines of "UK deals will be low priority due to impact/size of those potential deals" or even that they want to abuse UK's weakness to get favourable deals. There were also some vague (and non-binding) mentions of "deals" in general but it seems like Trump wants "we win, you lose" type of deals or nothing.

If you leave the EU you also lose the protection afforded by being part of a big and influential economic block and as a result other, similar economic blocks (USA, China) want to use that lack of protection to their own benefit. The US will probably try to set up favourable agreements but that will be favourable to the US and not the UK.

 whembly wrote:
I'm confused...

Congratulations, you've qualified for a job as an MP.

whembly: Well, in a Hard Brexit situation, the UK absolutely would need to make deals, and bloody fast. It is not independent in food and has not been for nearly a hundred years. It would not take long for food shortages to be a real issue.

Many people in the UK would object to a free trade deal with America where they felt their food standards were being lowered, or any deal which meant the American healthcare industry got a slice of the NHS. But these are likely to be conditions for a trade deal with the US, particularly under Trump who has complained about exactly these issues.

But if it comes to a Hard Brexit, there may not be much of a choice. Certainly if the UK lowers its standards for food and agricultural produce, it will be absolutely locked out of any customs union with the EU, and it will create huge problems on the border in Northern Ireland.

 Riquende wrote:

 whembly wrote:
I'm confused...

Congratulations, you've qualified for a job as an MP.

Okay... I just laughed out loud in my office.




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 Da Boss wrote:
whembly: Well, in a Hard Brexit situation, the UK absolutely would need to make deals, and bloody fast. It is not independent in food and has not been for nearly a hundred years. It would not take long for food shortages to be a real issue.

Many people in the UK would object to a free trade deal with America where they felt their food standards were being lowered, or any deal which meant the American healthcare industry got a slice of the NHS. But these are likely to be conditions for a trade deal with the US, particularly under Trump who has complained about exactly these issues.

But if it comes to a Hard Brexit, there may not be much of a choice. Certainly if the UK lowers its standards for food and agricultural produce, it will be absolutely locked out of any customs union with the EU, and it will create huge problems on the border in Northern Ireland.

Why do you assume that you'd have to lower food/agricultural/medical standards? We keep our gak clean bruv!

You have hormone injected meat, chlorine washed meat, genetically modified crops and other products that are not legal in the EU.

So we're at a point where the things that have been agreed in the past as a basis for continuing the negotiation ("getting to phase 2" I think it was described as) are no longer agreed and the EU has to be "more flexible" on them. This is it then, pretty much the endgame, what a lot of people have suspected all along. We've switched tracks and are hurtling headlong to No Deal City now that the Tories believe enough of the populace will be hoodwinked into believing everything is the EU's fault. Another decade of belt tightening austerity whilst the country tears itself apart to be remade in the Conservative image. If DNILT thinks there's a crimewave now wait until levels of inequality are off the charts.

I think if I were the EU I'd just walk away from negotiations now, citing bad faith on the UK's part and telling them to let us know when they have an actual position to be stuck to. However I think under the terms of A50 they can't do that, and also it would fuel the "wah, bad EU not giving us the moon on a stick" narrative the 2020's will be go down in history for.

It does fit with the current right wing narrative of victimhood and identity politics;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/20/brexiteers-betrayal-britain-america

It means that no matter what, if Brexit fails it's because of remainers or the EU, and nothing to do with Brexiteers themselves, despite never presenting a plan or alternative apart from flouncing away like a stroppy teenage girl.

I read that article too. It rings very true when you listen to the moans about Fake News Media, the Dream of Brxit and all that kind of clobber.

The rest of us have got to get on with it and make Brexit as small a disaster as we can.

I have some hopes the EU will pull a last-minute mega-fudge compromise out of their bag. I have no hopes that our government will come to its senses.

I don't believe a referendum is possible before next March, though I think a general election resulting in a new government could easily happen if Corbyn pulls his finger out.

If this happens I hope the whole proces will be reset and proper time given to resolve everything.

So May appears to be about to rule out what she agreed to in December, meaning the transition deal is now off the table as well? I wonder if the EU will try and be patient with her or if they will take it off the table straight away. At this point I believe shock therapy might be the only way forward. This is mental.

Parliament is about to go into recess until early September.

That makes it impossible to a general election until November at the earliest.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I believe you exaggerate for effect, but there is a fundamental strand of truth in your arguments.

For many rich Brexiteers, the key problem with the EU is the relentless bearing down on off-shore tax havens.

Off shore tax havens?

What with Juncker, Cyprus, Luxemburg and Malta?


Never let it be said that the EU doesn't have a sense of humour.

 r_squared wrote:
It does fit with the current right wing narrative of victimhood and identity politics;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/20/brexiteers-betrayal-britain-america

It means that no matter what, if Brexit fails it's because of remainers or the EU, and nothing to do with Brexiteers themselves, despite never presenting a plan or alternative apart from flouncing away like a stroppy teenage girl.

I saw this on twitter this morning.

One of the great myths surrounding Brexit is the idea that Brexit is seemingly a Right-wing initiative.

It's not. If you know your British history, then back in the days of Britain pre-EEC, a significant rump of the Labour party (when it was actually Socialist) was opposed to EEC membership. Tony Benn being a famous example, and later on, Jeremy Corbyn being another example. Hell, even the SNP were originally opposed to EEC membership.


Harold Wilson, the Labour leader, and often prime Minister, had a huge battle on his hands trying to heal the divisions in his party over the EEC. Wilson's 'victory' should have served as a textbook example to another Prime Minister decades later, when he had a referendum on Europe, and a divided party to contend with.

I am, and have always been, on the Left all of my life from the minute I was able to vote. I am also opposed to the EU. The free movement of goods, capital and labour is not being done in the interests of the working man.

Since the days of the Coal and Steel Pact, the European project has always been a stich up between Europe's capitalist class. That Thatcher championed the single market , that the Tories took us into the EEC, and that the Tories supported it for 4 decades, is all the proof I've ever needed of its ultimate end goal.

To me, it's no accident that as Labour under first Kinnock, and then Blair, as it moved away from Socialism, and whole-heartedly embraced the European project. I say that in response to the inevitable cries of Liberals and the 'Left' being in favour of the EU.

So let's put to bed this bollocks that Brexit is somehow exclusively right-wing. It's not and it has never been, as Left-wingers like me is proof that it cuts across the political spectrum.

It's mostly about white English identity.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
It's mostly about white English identity.

I'm doubtful that for example Jeremy Corbyn is a Eurosceptic due to "white English identity".

 Kilkrazy wrote:
It's mostly about white English identity.

I think it's more complex than that when you consider that the bête noire of immigration, the Polish plumber, is also white.

And not English.

Of course there isn't one single reason behind Brexit thinking, any more than Jeremy Corbyn represents all Labuor Party members.

However the theme of white English identity is strong in the mix.

There is a minority of people opposed to immigration who are out and out racists. I don't deny that. We will always have those people.

But IMO, I think the vast majority of Britons are broadly welcoming of immigrants, but immigration is a problem for a number of reasons:

1. Government neglect of building more affordable housing and improved services. No surprise when you consider it was policy to bankroll the economy with rising house prices.

2. Immigration being weaponised by New Labour.

3. A failure to reassure areas of deprivation i.e the old industrial areas about immigration.

On point 3, if you have an immigrant doctor in one of those areas, nobody's going to argue against somebody that saves their lives and benefits their community. The problem was when you had 50 immigrants on minimum wage competing for minimum wage jobs against other locals who were on minimum wage. That obviously alarmed the locals and created this culture of Brexit.

I'm not sayng it's racism. Identity is a lot more complex than that.

However, the polling and post-referendum research found for instance, that areas of historically high immigration like Brixton, were more Remainy, while areas of recent high immigration like Hull, were more Leavy.

You will also note the much lower support for Leave in Scotland.

jouso wrote:

 r_squared wrote:
It does fit with the current right wing narrative of victimhood and identity politics;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/20/brexiteers-betrayal-britain-america

It means that no matter what, if Brexit fails it's because of remainers or the EU, and nothing to do with Brexiteers themselves, despite never presenting a plan or alternative apart from flouncing away like a stroppy teenage girl.

I saw this on twitter this morning.

For the record, there are a number of leavers with a credible plan. Me, for example. It’s just that we aren’t in a position to do anything about it.

If I had been PM, I would said right, let’s go EFTA. I would have put it through Parliament to legitimise it whilst at the same time talking to the other EFTA members to get them on side, whilst publicly explaining to everyone why it’s the way to square the circle. Once that’s all sorted, only then would I have triggered article 50.

With that, the next two years are spent working out the finer details with the EU whilst preparing for new custom arrangements with other countries. It would have been almost seemless.

Now, we would have lots of the benefits of the eu like the SM, but we’d be able to make our own trade deals with other countries whilst at the same time getting out of CAP and taking back responsibility for our fishing stocks. And for me personally, removing the threat of the euro over our heads.

And this is just for starters. Once the dust settles, us five members of EFTA could start lobbying for a better deal. Hell, we could make such a success of it that other reluctant eu members might join up in future.

This really doesn’t need to be as hard as May is making it.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
I'm not sayng it's racism. Identity is a lot more complex than that.

However, the polling and post-referendum research found for instance, that areas of historically high immigration like Brixton, were more Remainy, while areas of recent high immigration like Hull, were more Leavy.

You will also note the much lower support for Leave in Scotland.

Until recently, Scotland's population was in decline. The Great War disproportionately harmed Scotland. 25% of all men of fighting age in Glasgow for example, were killed or wounded in WW1.

Edinburgh, Dundee, and Aberdeen were the same. That is some of the highest casulties rates in the whole of the UK. The Highlands and Western isles also suffered badly from this. As a result, demographics were in decline, and hadn't properly recovered since the Highland Clerances of the 19th century, so it made a bad situation worse.

It's only since Devolution that that trend has been reversed. Scotland needs immigrants, and for 20 years, Edinburgh was telling London to push some our way from the SE of England.

Naturally, of course, it fell on deaf ears.

The majority of Scotland is pro-EU for this reason, but our fishing communities have been bitter opponents of the EU for years.




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 Future War Cultist wrote:

jouso wrote:

 r_squared wrote:
It does fit with the current right wing narrative of victimhood and identity politics;

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/20/brexiteers-betrayal-britain-america

It means that no matter what, if Brexit fails it's because of remainers or the EU, and nothing to do with Brexiteers themselves, despite never presenting a plan or alternative apart from flouncing away like a stroppy teenage girl.

I saw this on twitter this morning.

For the record, there are a number of leavers with a credible plan. Me, for example. It’s just that we aren’t in a position to do anything about it.

If I had been PM, I would said right, let’s go EFTA. I would have put it through Parliament to legitimise it whilst at the same time talking to the other EFTA members to get them on side, whilst publicly explaining to everyone why it’s the way to square the circle. Once that’s all sorted, only then would I have triggered article 50.

With that, the next two years are spent working out the finer details with the EU whilst preparing for new custom arrangements with other countries. It would have been almost seemless.

Now, we would have lots of the benefits of the eu like the SM, but we’d be able to make our own trade deals with other countries whilst at the same time getting out of CAP and taking back responsibility for our fishing stocks. And for me personally, removing the threat of the euro over our heads.

And this is just for starters. Once the dust settles, us five members of EFTA could start lobbying for a better deal. Hell, we could make such a success of it that other reluctant eu members might join up in future.

This really doesn’t need to be as hard as May is making it.

A sensible plan.

This is the key point: Brexit has never come up with a clear statement of what it wants.

The red lines are:

ECJ (leave jurisdiction of)
Freedom of movement (stop)
EU subscription fees (stop paying)
Customs union (stop being a member of)
Irish border (Don't let it be re-instated.)

Some of these are mutually exclusive (Irish Border versus Customs union and Freedom of movement.) That is the circle the government cannot square.

EFTA has attractions, but it doesn't get the UK out of the ECJ, or stop free movement, and it doesn't solve the Irish Border problem.

The only thing it solves is the desire to make independent trade deals by getting us out of the Customs Union.

On the plus side it solves the problem of not having free trade and movement with the EU, and let's us take advantage of new EU trade deals like Japan.

For a Remainer like me, EFTA is a lot less bad than the other alternatives, at least.

https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1019031594676387845

During these uncertain times, our great country is crying out for reassurance, and a positive post -Brexit vision. Let us all not lose sight of the belief; our greatest years do lie before us. Brexiteers please do keep the faith. #Brexit will happen.

... keep the faith ?

but it's not a cult.

For the record, there are a number of leavers with a credible plan. Me, for example. It’s just that we aren’t in a position to do anything about it.

If I had been PM, I would said right, let’s go EFTA. I would have put it through Parliament to legitimise it whilst at the same time talking to the other EFTA members to get them on side,

http://uk.businessinsider.com/david-davis-rules-out-eea-efta-brexit-2017-9

Brexit Secretary David Davis has ruled out staying in the European Economic Area or joining the European Free Trade Association after Brexit, calling them "in many ways, the worst of all outcomes."

During questions to the Department of Exiting the EU in the House of Commons, Davis said the government had given it "some considerable thought, maybe as an interim measure" but that it would not seek to join EFTA.

already rejected by both the Govt and the hard brexit mob.

meanwhile in the press :

on the left the mainland UK edition, on the right the Irish version's editorial








.. but but but it's the EU that's drowning our companies in red tape.

-- although you'll note the actual companies are very keen on staying in the EU.

still feth business eh ?

elsewhere in La la land
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1019881467776831488

“Fall off the cliff edge” is another fatuous phrase they use. There is no cliff edge. Planes will fly & lorries will move thru ports the day after we leave just as they did the day before. We'll carry on trading, travelling, investing in EU countries as we do in non EU countries

funny how the actual aviation and transport industries disagree though yeah ?

You run/own an airline. A $100m aircraft is on the runway with 200+ people on board. Both your and the airports lawyers say it can't enter EU airspace or land. The insurers say you're on your own and are not covered if anything goes wrong.

.. but don't worry as the MP for Woking -- which voted remain -- and failed would be Tory leader says that you're fine.

The country is now divided between people who think the boss of Airbus best understands what running Airbus involves and people who think people like Redwood know better.

The 7 stages of Brexit :

That strategy in full:
1. Project fear! It won’t happen.
2. It won’t happen.
3. It won’t happen.
4. It won’t happen.
5. Big boys came and made it happen. It’s not our fault.
6. We never said wouldn’t happen.
7. Its a price worth you paying.

https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1020224344729976832

How top Brexiteers are thinking about surviving Brexit. Mogg - invest in Ireland. Lord Ashcroft recommends Malta. Lord Lawson - French residency. Gove- become PM. Rupert Murdoch - doesn’t live here. These options probably not available to everyone ....

QFT.

One of the great myths surrounding Brexit is the idea that Brexit is seemingly a Right-wing initiative.

It's not

hence it's support from UKIP, the Tories and the right wing press.

Thank you DINLT.

I’m sure there’s some holes in it, but they’re probably nothing like the great big fething massive gaps that May’s plan has.