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2017/07/03 20:43:01
Subject: We've seen the ITC results, but what about Dakkas results so far?
Also added the 2 games I had today: 1500pts WE VS IG and 1000pts WE VS IG, first game was a draw (very close, I was 6" off of an objective D: ) and the second was a win for the WE. Still going strong.
Ghorros wrote: The moral of the story: Don't park your Imperial Knight in a field of Gretchin carrying power tools.
Marmatag wrote: All the while, my opponent is furious, throwing his codex on the floor, trying to slash his wrists with safety scissors.
2017/07/04 17:37:25
Subject: We've seen the ITC results, but what about Dakkas results so far?
Quickjager wrote: GK v. Imperial Knight - GK victory
GK v. Necrons - GK victory
GK v. IG - IG victory
GK v. Ultramrine - Draw
Curious about the lists and point value in your GK Knight battle.
2k - 2 stormravens, Draigo, 2++ Libby, Paladins w/ hammers and falchions, Dreadknight naked w/ teleporter. He had a melee knight whom I kept having the Libby screen, draigo soloed a knight and the stormravens killed 1 knight themselves. Dreadknight died superfast after the deepstrike.
2k - same list, Necrons had nothing but warriors with Tesla, and 2 combat lords. Was just a bad matchup for him.
I wasn't used to having so many units lost sight of the big picture that I normally have alpha striking. Killed all his transports of Scions, killed the scions within, but it was only like a sixth of his army, 3 Valkyrie were left and killed my ravens. Went downhill from there as the plasma squads left were able to hit WAAAAY above their points value.
By the end it was mostly his valks v. My paladins in cover with the Interceptors. Got tabled still eventually. I didn't have anything to kill those Valks even with Draigo rerolls.
Thousand sons vs Ynnari , TS victory by tabling on turn 3 (tough practically over by the end of turn 2).
I misdeployed my ravager and voidraven so Magnus charged and killed both turn 1 before I even got to act. I never recovered and was soundly defeated.
Automatically Appended Next Post: Also 2 friends who were very new at the game played a game but this one is a little dodgy since they were both new so there was a lot of demonstating stuff going on.
Tau vs Tyranids, Tyranid victory
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/04 20:09:21
2017/07/04 20:34:35
Subject: We've seen the ITC results, but what about Dakkas results so far?
Draigo hits on 2's and rerolls 1's, with 5 base attacks, at strength 9, -4AP. So, he's fairly reliably pumping out 10 wounds a round from melee. Then, if he's your warlord with +1 leadership, his purge soul comes in at 11 + D6 versus 9 + D6, for an expected 2 mortal wounds. He will also smite another wound off. So you should expect roughly 13 wounds from Draigo per round in that combat. If he spikes - for instance, he hits & wounds all rolls, and rolls a 6 on his purge soul and the Knight rolls a 1, you're looking at 22 wounds right there.
If there are multiple combats and the Knight player nominates a unit other than the one involved with Draigo, the Knight might only get 1 turn against Draigo, who would save the worst attacks on a 3+.
In a 2k game, Draigo is an auto-include.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/07/04 21:30:00
Galas wrote: I remember when Marmatag was a nooby, all shiney and full of joy. How playing the unbalanced mess of Warhammer40k in a ultra-competitive meta has changed you
Bharring wrote: He'll actually *change his mind* in the presence of sufficient/sufficiently defended information. Heretic.
2017/07/04 21:32:52
Subject: We've seen the ITC results, but what about Dakkas results so far?
Draigo hits on 2's and rerolls 1's, with 5 base attacks, at strength 9, -4AP. So, he's fairly reliably pumping out 10 wounds a round from melee. Then, if he's your warlord with +1 leadership, his purge soul comes in at 11 + D6 versus 9 + D6, for an expected 2 mortal wounds. He will also smite another wound off. So you should expect roughly 13 wounds from Draigo per round in that combat. If he spikes - for instance, he hits & wounds all rolls, and rolls a 6 on his purge soul and the Knight rolls a 1, you're looking at 22 wounds right there.
If there are multiple combats and the Knight player nominates a unit other than the one involved with Draigo, the Knight might only get 1 turn against Draigo, who would save the worst attacks on a 3+.
In a 2k game, Draigo is an auto-include.
Aye but a Knight only needs to wound Draigo once in shooting then get one of it's attacks through on the charge and Draigo's dead.
Ghorros wrote: The moral of the story: Don't park your Imperial Knight in a field of Gretchin carrying power tools.
Marmatag wrote: All the while, my opponent is furious, throwing his codex on the floor, trying to slash his wrists with safety scissors.
2017/07/04 23:00:11
Subject: We've seen the ITC results, but what about Dakkas results so far?
Draigo hits on 2's and rerolls 1's, with 5 base attacks, at strength 9, -4AP. So, he's fairly reliably pumping out 10 wounds a round from melee. Then, if he's your warlord with +1 leadership, his purge soul comes in at 11 + D6 versus 9 + D6, for an expected 2 mortal wounds. He will also smite another wound off. So you should expect roughly 13 wounds from Draigo per round in that combat. If he spikes - for instance, he hits & wounds all rolls, and rolls a 6 on his purge soul and the Knight rolls a 1, you're looking at 22 wounds right there.
If there are multiple combats and the Knight player nominates a unit other than the one involved with Draigo, the Knight might only get 1 turn against Draigo, who would save the worst attacks on a 3+.
In a 2k game, Draigo is an auto-include.
Aye but a Knight only needs to wound Draigo once in shooting then get one of it's attacks through on the charge and Draigo's dead.
Done some more statistics for you. Actually bothered to be a little more rigorous this time. I've put the stats stuff in a spoiler. This ANOVA tells us that there is a difference in performance between the armies and I am in the process of performing further statistical tests to group them.
I will be grouping them such that there is no statistical difference within a group, comparing all the armies pairwise by T-test. Will be back with the results in a bit.
I've now done the above tests and, sadly, there is still not enough data for strong conclusions, what we can tell is the following:
Astra Militarum is statistically better than Orks and Tau, but statistically similar to all other armies.
Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar are all statistically better than Tau, but statistically similar to all other armies.
Orks are statistically worse than Astra Militarum but statistically similar to all other armies.
T'au are statistically worse than Astra Militarum, Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar but statistically similar to all other armies.
So we could say Guard are top tier as they are the only army statistically better than 2 other armies. Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar are Tier 2 as they are better than 1 other army. Imperial Knights, Thousand Sons, Daemons, Eldar, Tyranids, Necrons, Chaos Space Marines, Harlequins, Ad mech, Blood Angels, Space Marines, Dark Angels, Death Guard and Deathwatch are middle tier (Tier 3) as they are statistically similar to all other armies. Orcs are Tier 4 as they are statistically worse than 1 other army and T'au are Tier 5 as they are statistically worse than 6 other Armies.
Overall I can conclude, genuinely, that T'au appear to be having a rough time of it. Everyone else seems balanced so a real analysis is more like:
Tier 1
Everyone Else
Tier 2
T'au
Spoiler:
I have performed an initial ANOVA, giving the following results:
SSW 205.15
MSW 0.25
SSB 8.33
MSB 0.40
F = 1.61
FCrit(0.05) = 1.57
This is for df1 21 and df2 832, the degrees of freedom as of the time of writing.
I performed my T-test with a generous 0.01 cutoff (giving a ~20% chance of false positives). I made this choice due to the current paucity of data.
This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2017/07/05 10:34:28
2017/07/05 10:31:24
Subject: We've seen the ITC results, but what about Dakkas results so far?
Game 1: 1000 pts - IG vs Blood Angels - Guard Win Game 2: 1500 pts -IG vs Blood Angels - Guard Win Game 3: 2000 pts - IG vs Space Marines + Grey Knights - Guard Win Game 4: 2000 pts - IG vs Dark Eldar - Guard Win Game 5: 1500 pts - IG vs Dark Eldar - Guard Win Game 6: 1500 pts - IG vs Tau - Guard Win Game 7: 1500 pts - IG vs Orks - Guard Win Game 8: 1500 pts - IG vs Knights - Knights win Game 9: 1500 pts - IG vs Tyranids - Guard Win Game 10: 1500 pts - IG vs Space Marines - Guard Win Game 11: 2000 pts IG vs Eldar - Guard Win Game 12: 1500 pts -IG vs Blood Angels - Guard Win Game 13: 2000 pts IG vs Knights - Guard Win
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/05 10:42:06
6000 pts of Foot Guard
"I once gave the order to one of my platoons to fix bayonets and charge a squad of genestealers. If they believed in the emperor hard enough they could win... I don't think they believed enough..."
2017/07/05 11:06:23
Subject: We've seen the ITC results, but what about Dakkas results so far?
Done some more statistics for you. Actually bothered to be a little more rigorous this time. I've put the stats stuff in a spoiler. This ANOVA tells us that there is a difference in performance between the armies and I am in the process of performing further statistical tests to group them.
I will be grouping them such that there is no statistical difference within a group, comparing all the armies pairwise by T-test. Will be back with the results in a bit.
I've now done the above tests and, sadly, there is still not enough data for strong conclusions, what we can tell is the following:
Astra Militarum is statistically better than Orks and Tau, but statistically similar to all other armies.
Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar are all statistically better than Tau, but statistically similar to all other armies.
Orks are statistically worse than Astra Militarum but statistically similar to all other armies.
T'au are statistically worse than Astra Militarum, Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar but statistically similar to all other armies.
So we could say Guard are top tier as they are the only army statistically better than 2 other armies. Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar are Tier 2 as they are better than 1 other army. Imperial Knights, Thousand Sons, Daemons, Eldar, Tyranids, Necrons, Chaos Space Marines, Harlequins, Ad mech, Blood Angels, Space Marines, Dark Angels, Death Guard and Deathwatch are middle tier (Tier 3) as they are statistically similar to all other armies. Orcs are Tier 4 as they are statistically worse than 1 other army and T'au are Tier 5 as they are statistically worse than 6 other Armies.
Overall I can conclude, genuinely, that T'au appear to be having a rough time of it. Everyone else seems balanced so a real analysis is more like:
Tier 1
Everyone Else
Tier 2
T'au
Spoiler:
I have performed an initial ANOVA, giving the following results:
SSW 205.15
MSW 0.25
SSB 8.33
MSB 0.40
F = 1.61
FCrit(0.05) = 1.57
This is for df1 21 and df2 832, the degrees of freedom as of the time of writing.
I performed my T-test with a generous 0.01 cutoff (giving a ~20% chance of false positives). I made this choice due to the current paucity of data.
I have no understanding of what you did there. What is ANOVA?
2017/07/05 11:13:19
Subject: We've seen the ITC results, but what about Dakkas results so far?
Done some more statistics for you. Actually bothered to be a little more rigorous this time. I've put the stats stuff in a spoiler. This ANOVA tells us that there is a difference in performance between the armies and I am in the process of performing further statistical tests to group them.
I will be grouping them such that there is no statistical difference within a group, comparing all the armies pairwise by T-test. Will be back with the results in a bit.
I've now done the above tests and, sadly, there is still not enough data for strong conclusions, what we can tell is the following:
Astra Militarum is statistically better than Orks and Tau, but statistically similar to all other armies.
Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar are all statistically better than Tau, but statistically similar to all other armies.
Orks are statistically worse than Astra Militarum but statistically similar to all other armies.
T'au are statistically worse than Astra Militarum, Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar but statistically similar to all other armies.
So we could say Guard are top tier as they are the only army statistically better than 2 other armies. Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar are Tier 2 as they are better than 1 other army. Imperial Knights, Thousand Sons, Daemons, Eldar, Tyranids, Necrons, Chaos Space Marines, Harlequins, Ad mech, Blood Angels, Space Marines, Dark Angels, Death Guard and Deathwatch are middle tier (Tier 3) as they are statistically similar to all other armies. Orcs are Tier 4 as they are statistically worse than 1 other army and T'au are Tier 5 as they are statistically worse than 6 other Armies.
Overall I can conclude, genuinely, that T'au appear to be having a rough time of it. Everyone else seems balanced so a real analysis is more like:
Tier 1
Everyone Else
Tier 2
T'au
Spoiler:
I have performed an initial ANOVA, giving the following results:
SSW 205.15
MSW 0.25
SSB 8.33
MSB 0.40
F = 1.61
FCrit(0.05) = 1.57
This is for df1 21 and df2 832, the degrees of freedom as of the time of writing.
I performed my T-test with a generous 0.01 cutoff (giving a ~20% chance of false positives). I made this choice due to the current paucity of data.
I have no understanding of what you did there. What is ANOVA?
Statistics jargon - stands for 'Analysis of Variance'.
That's pretty much the extend of my knowledge though lol.
2017/07/05 11:50:35
Subject: We've seen the ITC results, but what about Dakkas results so far?
Done some more statistics for you. Actually bothered to be a little more rigorous this time. I've put the stats stuff in a spoiler. This ANOVA tells us that there is a difference in performance between the armies and I am in the process of performing further statistical tests to group them.
I will be grouping them such that there is no statistical difference within a group, comparing all the armies pairwise by T-test. Will be back with the results in a bit.
I've now done the above tests and, sadly, there is still not enough data for strong conclusions, what we can tell is the following:
Astra Militarum is statistically better than Orks and Tau, but statistically similar to all other armies.
Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar are all statistically better than Tau, but statistically similar to all other armies.
Orks are statistically worse than Astra Militarum but statistically similar to all other armies.
T'au are statistically worse than Astra Militarum, Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar but statistically similar to all other armies.
So we could say Guard are top tier as they are the only army statistically better than 2 other armies. Adeptus Sororitas, World Eaters, Space Wolves, Grey Knights and Dark Eldar are Tier 2 as they are better than 1 other army. Imperial Knights, Thousand Sons, Daemons, Eldar, Tyranids, Necrons, Chaos Space Marines, Harlequins, Ad mech, Blood Angels, Space Marines, Dark Angels, Death Guard and Deathwatch are middle tier (Tier 3) as they are statistically similar to all other armies. Orcs are Tier 4 as they are statistically worse than 1 other army and T'au are Tier 5 as they are statistically worse than 6 other Armies.
Overall I can conclude, genuinely, that T'au appear to be having a rough time of it. Everyone else seems balanced so a real analysis is more like:
Tier 1
Everyone Else
Tier 2
T'au
Spoiler:
I have performed an initial ANOVA, giving the following results:
SSW 205.15
MSW 0.25
SSB 8.33
MSB 0.40
F = 1.61
FCrit(0.05) = 1.57
This is for df1 21 and df2 832, the degrees of freedom as of the time of writing.
I performed my T-test with a generous 0.01 cutoff (giving a ~20% chance of false positives). I made this choice due to the current paucity of data.
I have no understanding of what you did there. What is ANOVA?
Magic. As Matt.Kingsley said it means Analysis of Variance. Essentially I asked is the difference between the armies bigger than the difference for any one army?
Essentially the answers just mean that T'au are doing a little worse than everyone else, but overall the edition is very balanced.
For example, from a statistical point of view, Adeptus Sororitas and Space Marines have the same win percentage (we can't tell the difference), the average win percentage for each is 72.7% for AS and 43.4% for SM, but because of the small number of AS games compared to SM games and the variance in the overall set we can say that they might be the same (and could both be 50/50) if we could check all the games in the world. that isn't true for Tau, they are worse than a whole bunch of factions.
At this stage I'm going to say this is the most balanced edition ever! More results will tell us more though.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/05 11:51:32
2017/07/05 11:59:34
Subject: We've seen the ITC results, but what about Dakkas results so far?
5000pts W4/ D0/ L5
5000pts W10/ D2/ L7
6000 pts of Foot Guard
