Toys, Boardgames & Dice now in the firing line for the USA/China trade war

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**Grot 6**

DOOOM!

**ScarletRose**

ced1106 wrote:
. And the reality of this is that the additional tariffs they take in from China and a few other countries help offset the ridiculous runaway spending that Congress does

Given there's such blatant political shilling mixed in I'm definitely doubting the source on this.

**willb2064**

ced1106 wrote:
From Reddit: "I am a licensed Customs Broker in the US. I literally deal with these tariffs ALL day long. People sit here and complain that "Well a 25% price increase is going to kill businesses".

Here is some news for you to get a better perspective on this situation: So let's say a game publisher has a game with an MSRP of $60.00. The actual cost they declare to Customs is around $8-$11, on average. The rest of the cost goes to paying for things like ocean freight charges (which are non-dutiable and thus, the tariffs do not impact), and warehousing and trucking and profit and labor costs and other local charges, none of which are dutiable and thus the tariffs do not affect. That means, on a game that has an import cost of $8.00, the tariff adds $2 to the price of importation of that copy of the game. $2 to a $60 game is a total increase of 3.33%. That sort of cost can be absorbed with barely any notice to the consumer.

And if you think I making things up, these tariffs have been in place for virtually everything from China since September. How many things have you noticed huge cost hikes on? Anything that jumped 25%? Any small businesses that were thriving prior to Sep 4 that are now out of business? Most people here seem to think of this like a VAT, or a Value Added Tax, which is a flat tax added at the time of sales tax, which means you are taxed on all the freight and trucking and warehousing and whatever charges. That is not how tariffs work. So that $95 copy of Gloomhaven, were it imported from China after these tariffs, would (assuming the cost was fully passed on) cost about $98-100. Again, not a 25% cost increase. And the reality of this is that the additional tariffs they take in from China and a few other countries help offset the ridiculous runaway spending that Congress does so that it offsets some of the money we end up borrowing from China to pay for their nonsense."

https://www.reddit.com/r/boardgames/comments/boej7d/toys_board_games_dice_included_in_proposed/enhgp0r/
https://www.reddit.com/r/boardgames/comments/bphyo3/board_games_are_about_to_be_hit_with_a_25_tariff/

The initial tariff on most goods was 10%, which suppliers and retailers split 50/50 in a lot of cases, eroding margin of both. 25% is a different ball game, no one can afford to just take the hit unless they have crazy high margins already. Company I work for will take a 6% hit to operating margin if the 25% tariffs stick and nothing changes. Prices will go up in a lot of cases. You can't just shift supply chains to different countries overnight, it takes months/years to build up. I was in Vietnam earlier this year and there is a ton of money flowing in from China buying up land to build factories. It will be a year before those factories will be built let alone operating at a decent capacity, and then infrastructure will have to be built at the ports to handle additional volume, again, not overnight. YMMV depending on product/industry/company, I just wanted to point out there are businesses in both the US and China that went from being profitable to losing money pretty much overnight due to these tariffs.

**Gael Knight**

Name 5.

**Yodhrin**

Albino Squirrel wrote:
I doubt that. There are a lot of jobs where a person can accomplish ten times as much or more as they could have before there were computers. And yet there are still plenty of jobs.

But that is not a trend that can keep going forever.

We replaced traditional jobs with mechanised automation, and that created new jobs making software for the machines, repairing the machines, and a small number operating the machines.

The last of those has been steadily declining as the technology matures, but people have been acting like the first two will just keep growing forever. They won't, because we're now on the cusp of automating those as well, and that wave of automation will generate barely any new jobs because automation of its own creation, maintenance, and operation will be already "built in".

There is no version of AI-driven automation that doesn't end in mass-unemployment, because eventually AI-driven automation reaches a point that the only necessary work is a handful of "big picture" people handing out vaguely defined tasks to the AI-driven systems, which can interpret those instructions without human help, operate themselves to achieve what they subsequently determine is necessary, and maintain themselves during the entire process. But because that final conclusion of the scenario sounds so sci-fi and is probably at least a century away, people ignore the fact that the end result isn't something that will just happen from one day to the next, it's the conclusion of a long process of gradual automation that will become unsustainable under our present societal paradigm long, long before it reaches that stage.

Exactly why and how to prevent it unfortunately gets "too political" to discuss here any more.

**Flinty**

I for one look forward to welcoming our robot overlords. As long as it ends in a handy Culture style civilisation

**Albino Squirrel**

Yodhrin wrote:
Albino Squirrel wrote:
I doubt that. There are a lot of jobs where a person can accomplish ten times as much or more as they could have before there were computers. And yet there are still plenty of jobs.

But that is not a trend that can keep going forever.

We replaced traditional jobs with mechanised automation, and that created new jobs making software for the machines, repairing the machines, and a small number operating the machines.

The last of those has been steadily declining as the technology matures, but people have been acting like the first two will just keep growing forever. They won't, because we're now on the cusp of automating those as well, and that wave of automation will generate barely any new jobs because automation of its own creation, maintenance, and operation will be already "built in".

There is no version of AI-driven automation that doesn't end in mass-unemployment, because eventually AI-driven automation reaches a point that the only necessary work is a handful of "big picture" people handing out vaguely defined tasks to the AI-driven systems, which can interpret those instructions without human help, operate themselves to achieve what they subsequently determine is necessary, and maintain themselves during the entire process. But because that final conclusion of the scenario sounds so sci-fi and is probably at least a century away, people ignore the fact that the end result isn't something that will just happen from one day to the next, it's the conclusion of a long process of gradual automation that will become unsustainable under our present societal paradigm long, long before it reaches that stage.

Exactly why and how to prevent it unfortunately gets "too political" to discuss here any more.

We don't need to do anything to prevent it. Even if it becomes "unsustainable under our present societal paradigm" over the course of the next hundred years, that's irrelevant because society will change in the next hundred years, just like it changed in the last hundred years. You forget that people can and do adapt to new technology.

**Daedalus81**

Yodhrin wrote:
Albino Squirrel wrote:
I doubt that. There are a lot of jobs where a person can accomplish ten times as much or more as they could have before there were computers. And yet there are still plenty of jobs.

But that is not a trend that can keep going forever.

We replaced traditional jobs with mechanised automation, and that created new jobs making software for the machines, repairing the machines, and a small number operating the machines.

The last of those has been steadily declining as the technology matures, but people have been acting like the first two will just keep growing forever. They won't, because we're now on the cusp of automating those as well, and that wave of automation will generate barely any new jobs because automation of its own creation, maintenance, and operation will be already "built in".

There is no version of AI-driven automation that doesn't end in mass-unemployment, because eventually AI-driven automation reaches a point that the only necessary work is a handful of "big picture" people handing out vaguely defined tasks to the AI-driven systems, which can interpret those instructions without human help, operate themselves to achieve what they subsequently determine is necessary, and maintain themselves during the entire process. But because that final conclusion of the scenario sounds so sci-fi and is probably at least a century away, people ignore the fact that the end result isn't something that will just happen from one day to the next, it's the conclusion of a long process of gradual automation that will become unsustainable under our present societal paradigm long, long before it reaches that stage.

Exactly why and how to prevent it unfortunately gets "too political" to discuss here any more.

The concepts people should apply are "muscle labor" and "mental labor".

We've automated muscle quite well. Remember when we had work horses? There aren't so many of those now. Mental labor is the next stage and that's where is gets really difficult. No truck drivers, no spreadsheet monkies, no doctors, etc.

Once you achieve automation of mental labor there is literally no job that can't be automated. AI can make music and write poetry, too.

Eventually the masses become like the work horses of old - obsolete. What happens then, I do not know. We're still a ways off, but populism and climate change are knocking first.

**timetowaste85**

Beginning to sound like Thanos had the right idea!

**Yodhrin**

Albino Squirrel wrote:
Yodhrin wrote:
Albino Squirrel wrote:
I doubt that. There are a lot of jobs where a person can accomplish ten times as much or more as they could have before there were computers. And yet there are still plenty of jobs.

But that is not a trend that can keep going forever.

We replaced traditional jobs with mechanised automation, and that created new jobs making software for the machines, repairing the machines, and a small number operating the machines.

The last of those has been steadily declining as the technology matures, but people have been acting like the first two will just keep growing forever. They won't, because we're now on the cusp of automating those as well, and that wave of automation will generate barely any new jobs because automation of its own creation, maintenance, and operation will be already "built in".

There is no version of AI-driven automation that doesn't end in mass-unemployment, because eventually AI-driven automation reaches a point that the only necessary work is a handful of "big picture" people handing out vaguely defined tasks to the AI-driven systems, which can interpret those instructions without human help, operate themselves to achieve what they subsequently determine is necessary, and maintain themselves during the entire process. But because that final conclusion of the scenario sounds so sci-fi and is probably at least a century away, people ignore the fact that the end result isn't something that will just happen from one day to the next, it's the conclusion of a long process of gradual automation that will become unsustainable under our present societal paradigm long, long before it reaches that stage.

Exactly why and how to prevent it unfortunately gets "too political" to discuss here any more.

We don't need to do anything to prevent it. Even if it becomes "unsustainable under our present societal paradigm" over the course of the next hundred years, that's irrelevant because society will change in the next hundred years, just like it changed in the last hundred years. You forget that people can and do adapt to new technology.

As I say, the subject becomes too political to really continue here, but suffice it to say I'm not as optimistic. A lot of people who benefit from the status quo or who are ideologically committed to it will do just about anything to oppose the changes that will likely be necessary, and all sorts of dystopian outcomes are very much possible outcomes of that.

**Briancj**

ced1106 wrote:
From Reddit: "I am a licensed Customs Broker in the US. I literally deal with these tariffs ALL day long. People sit here and complain that "Well a 25% price increase is going to kill businesses".

Here is some news for you to get a better perspective on this situation: So let's say a game publisher has a game with an MSRP of $60.00. The actual cost they declare to Customs is around $8-$11, on average. The rest of the cost goes to paying for things like ocean freight charges (which are non-dutiable and thus, the tariffs do not impact), and warehousing and trucking and profit and labor costs and other local charges, none of which are dutiable and thus the tariffs do not affect. That means, on a game that has an import cost of $8.00, the tariff adds $2 to the price of importation of that copy of the game. $2 to a $60 game is a total increase of 3.33%. That sort of cost can be absorbed with barely any notice to the consumer.

And if you think I making things up, these tariffs have been in place for virtually everything from China since September. How many things have you noticed huge cost hikes on? Anything that jumped 25%? Any small businesses that were thriving prior to Sep 4 that are now out of business? Most people here seem to think of this like a VAT, or a Value Added Tax, which is a flat tax added at the time of sales tax, which means you are taxed on all the freight and trucking and warehousing and whatever charges. That is not how tariffs work. So that $95 copy of Gloomhaven, were it imported from China after these tariffs, would (assuming the cost was fully passed on) cost about $98-100. Again, not a 25% cost increase. And the reality of this is that the additional tariffs they take in from China and a few other countries help offset the ridiculous runaway spending that Congress does so that it offsets some of the money we end up borrowing from China to pay for their nonsense."

https://www.reddit.com/r/boardgames/comments/boej7d/toys_board_games_dice_included_in_proposed/enhgp0r/
https://www.reddit.com/r/boardgames/comments/bphyo3/board_games_are_about_to_be_hit_with_a_25_tariff/

Part the second: Yes, prices have been going up. and if Reddit-guy there hasn't noticed, it's because he's making enough money to NOT notice. Businesses small and large HAVE been going out of business, farms failing. And that the extra $2.00 'means nothing'?

Sure, one copy of Gloomhaven costing a couple dollars more, big deal. But EVERYTHING now costs more. And it's dis-proportionally hurting those who are not making a tidy salary of (on average) $73K a year. [Source: https://www.payscale.com/research/US/Certification=Licensed_Customs_Broker/Salary]

Part the first: An increase in the base cost (that $8-11) reddit-guy waves around is MAGNIFIED in the end cost. It will not be a $2.00 increase, because that comes directly out of the VERY THIN profit margin of a game. And even if it WAS just $2, let's say the profit margin on a $60 game is a generous $30. Now we're looking at a 6.66% increase. A more realistic $20 margin? A ten percent hit to your bottom line.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics, and reddit-guy there is one of these.

I'm in the middle somewhere.

--B.

**OrlandotheTechnicoloured**

It also disregards the standard procedure for lots of businesses includuing gaming, buy cheap and mark up so when AB games imports something for $10 it passes to CD distibubtions who probably pay $20 and then sell it to EF gamestore at $40 who then retails it for $60

a lot of it is based on selling for multiples of what they buy for

$12 at import will not be $22 at distribution and $62 at retail,

everyone will want their normal margins, so probably $24 (or maybe $25, it's a 'better' number) at distribution, they sell it on at $50 and $75 at retail

**JohnHwangDD**

Yeah, nobody is going to eat the margin that they would normally take, so $2 direct from China is $10 to the consumer.

**Irbis**

Briancj wrote:
ced1106 wrote:
From Reddit: "I am a licensed Customs Broker in the US. I literally deal with these tariffs ALL day long. People sit here and complain that "Well a 25% price increase is going to kill businesses".

Here is some news for you to get a better perspective on this situation: So let's say a game publisher has a game with an MSRP of $60.00. The actual cost they declare to Customs is around $8-$11, on average. The rest of the cost goes to paying for things like ocean freight charges (which are non-dutiable and thus, the tariffs do not impact), and warehousing and trucking and profit and labor costs and other local charges, none of which are dutiable and thus the tariffs do not affect. That means, on a game that has an import cost of $8.00, the tariff adds $2 to the price of importation of that copy of the game. $2 to a $60 game is a total increase of 3.33%. That sort of cost can be absorbed with barely any notice to the consumer.

And if you think I making things up, these tariffs have been in place for virtually everything from China since September. How many things have you noticed huge cost hikes on? Anything that jumped 25%? Any small businesses that were thriving prior to Sep 4 that are now out of business? Most people here seem to think of this like a VAT, or a Value Added Tax, which is a flat tax added at the time of sales tax, which means you are taxed on all the freight and trucking and warehousing and whatever charges. That is not how tariffs work. So that $95 copy of Gloomhaven, were it imported from China after these tariffs, would (assuming the cost was fully passed on) cost about $98-100. Again, not a 25% cost increase. And the reality of this is that the additional tariffs they take in from China and a few other countries help offset the ridiculous runaway spending that Congress does so that it offsets some of the money we end up borrowing from China to pay for their nonsense."

https://www.reddit.com/r/boardgames/comments/boej7d/toys_board_games_dice_included_in_proposed/enhgp0r/
https://www.reddit.com/r/boardgames/comments/bphyo3/board_games_are_about_to_be_hit_with_a_25_tariff/

Part the second: Yes, prices have been going up. and if Reddit-guy there hasn't noticed, it's because he's making enough money to NOT notice. Businesses small and large HAVE been going out of business, farms failing. And that the extra $2.00 'means nothing'?

Sure, one copy of Gloomhaven costing a couple dollars more, big deal. But EVERYTHING now costs more. And it's dis-proportionally hurting those who are not making a tidy salary of (on average) $73K a year. [Source: https://www.payscale.com/research/US/Certification=Licensed_Customs_Broker/Salary]

Part the first: An increase in the base cost (that $8-11) reddit-guy waves around is MAGNIFIED in the end cost. It will not be a $2.00 increase, because that comes directly out of the VERY THIN profit margin of a game. And even if it WAS just $2, let's say the profit margin on a $60 game is a generous $30. Now we're looking at a 6.66% increase. A more realistic $20 margin? A ten percent hit to your bottom line.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics, and reddit-guy there is one of these.

This. Not only first part is full of lies, the other is too, there is no "ridiculous runaway spending" (besides money going to military and espionage complexes) in USA, in fact, US spending on its population and infrastructure is laughably small. The situation would be trivially fixed by slashing military budgets in half (which would still mean spending good 20 to 50% higher per capita than all other first world countries do, never mind in actual sums spent...) or raising the taxes on rich to sane levels so Buffett and Gates don't need to rain crocodile tears on how their secretary pays more tax than they do, but sure, let's excuse policy placing disproportionate burden on the poorest blaming everyone but the people driving straight into the wall...

Albino Squirrel wrote:
We don't need to do anything to prevent it. Even if it becomes "unsustainable under our present societal paradigm" over the course of the next hundred years, that's irrelevant because society will change in the next hundred years, just like it changed in the last hundred years. You forget that people can and do adapt to new technology.

You're forgetting last time we ended up with automation reducing amount of jobs to that degree we had luddite uprisings on one side and communist revolutionaries on the other, because a-holes on top refused to do anything that would reduce their profits by one single cent and had to be forced to do so under the threat of Soviet backed revolt. And, spoiler alert, that threat doesn't exist anymore and last 40 years were quick march back to gilded age thanks to that. Except this time 1% made sure to not even leave breadcrumbs for others as income share of bottom 90% had been steadily dropping, not rising. Call me a cynic but right now, the smallest thing that can force necessary change will be another revolution, bloodless or otherwise.

**Albino Squirrel**

Okay comrade. I'm not all that worried about communist revolution. At least not in the USA.

**Vulcan**

Overly-political post deleted, sorry.

**Manchu**

Let’s leave discussing politics for other websites, please and thanks!